of alexa lillius, it's hers. i mean, you don't see this kind of help on the years. in me, we're really glad that she was able to be in contact with me, the ministry, and in everything that they did for us right now as being more than enough. the family say they plan to stay in doha until the end of the tournament. to enjoy the last few days of what the world cup has to offer. victoria gay to be al jazeera doe ha, ah, hello there. this is al jazeera, these are the headlines. tens of thousands of nurses in the u. k. are on strike in their 1st ever national walk out there demanding a 19 percent pay rise to match inflation. the government says that's unaffordable. john hall has gone out from oxford. the nurse is joining now. striking rail workers striking transport workers. the boarders boat border stop will be on strike,

sued bus drivers across the public sector. but the nurses really, this is historic. it's the 1st time such a wave of strikes in the nursing profession has for happen in the entire history of the national health service. a service that many say is close to collapse. 19 percent is what the nurses have been asking for. as you heard there around 4 percent is what been offered in terms of an independent hey review. not enough. so the nurses by simply struggling to continue in the profession under a crippling cost of living crisis opposition parties and to key a rallying and support of the mayor of istanbul, after a court sentenced him to jail for insulting public officials. a trial focused on remark said m m m, all who had made during his stumbles me or race in 2019 he seen as a potential challenger to president wrestle trip out to one and elections next year . at least 8 people have now been killed as protests continue in peru. rhodes like

the major pan american highway mika have also been blocked. a state of emergency has been declared. some demonstrators want the new president dina been wanting to resign and for new elections to be held there. also asking for formally that hydro castillo to be released, new government data shows that china's coven 19 batted economy slumped in november before authorities eased. severe. pandemic restrictions. the irish army says, one of its soldiers with the humans peacekeeping mission and lebanon, has been killed. another seriously injured their convoy, reportedly came under small arms, finally, a sa refund in the south while traveling to bay root. the un mission says it's launched a joint investigation with the lebanese army, france of booked to their place in the world cup final against argentina. the defending champions beats moral her to no ending a dream run for the atlas lions who became the 1st african and 1st arab team to make the final for while those of the headlines inside story is next.

ah, the latest economic data from china paints a gloomy picture, the slower than expected growth. as the world bank warns of the risk of a worldwide recession next year, what could problems in china mean for the global economy? this is inside stored. ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm how much am jerome? the saying used to be what america sneezes the world, catches a cold. now the global focus is just as much on china covered 19 has had an impact

on the financial health of the world's 2nd largest economy. and it's contagious. so in the latest economic data from beijing showed weaker than expected results, concerned spread worldwide will be delving into those statistics in a moment. but 1st, richard kimber and hong kong tells us about the reaction to the figures. there is a growing sense of unease and uncertainty. among the chinese public about just how successfully the country can manage this crucial transition period between what has been a 0 tolerance approach to corona virus cases, to now one in which society and the economy of both rapidly opening up again talking to business consultants in the country, they say that employers a funding that their workforce reluctance go to the office right now. and the companies themselves, a reluctant to high a new star, or because of an uncertainty about the future, the economy and the future of coven 19 transmission risk in a country that has largely been insulated from any type of widespread transmission . because of the being so many rules and restrictions in place,

that same logic is meaning that some parents are reluctant to send their children to school and talking to shoppers on the street. they didn't want to go to busy places or spend much money, or because of his uncertainty about how the next few months will unfold. economic analysts say this will likely sit back quite some months, any chance of being a quick and efficient economic rebound in china. they're expecting it may be the middle of next year before we see anything close to the type of pre pandemic growth that china was used to. this is affecting, of course, not just domestic chinese companies and their ability to hire and expand it. also, international companies who rely so heavily on china's manufacturing capability for the global supply chains. and so the next few months are being seen as a crucial step in china's cobit 19 experience. does he just how much the world's 2nd largest economy can bounce back off to these rules of suddenly all been relaxed? richard kimber, the inside story. according to china's national bureau of statistics,

retail sales felled nearly 6 percent in november from a year ago. the biggest drop since made industrial production growth slowed to 2.2 percent less than half of october's growth. property investment, which accounts for as much as 30 percent of g. d. p has plunged by nearly 20 percent year on year and unemployment worsened. rising to nearly 6 percent, it's highest in 6 months. ah. all right, let's go ahead and bring in our guests in beijing. andy mach senior research fellow at the center for china and globalization in washington, d. c. shirley z you a fellow at the ash center of harvard kennedy school and in san gallant switzerland . guido caught c a professor of macroeconomics at the university of san gallon, a warm welcome to you all and thanks so much for joining us today on inside. sorry, andy, let me start with you today. the fact that china, the world's 2nd largest economy is reporting another slump. how concerning is that

inside china? and how concerning is that outside of china? what if you have me on and i think this is an incredibly important question mohammed, i think that really we should not be concerned at all. let me provide a little bit of context. we've seen the kind of government when the battle against coven, which started out with the delta v area, which had in r o, we're a reproduction number of about to, to the latest varying which has a are lots of something like 16, which is 8 times as infectious, and about as infectious as the measles, but fortunately, much less lethal. so this is, i think we can understand the rapid relaxation of these very strict coven policies . and what this means is that the fundamental conditions are in place for very

powerful economic rebuild. not only because we're moving into the post coal video in china, but other a policy decisions as well around real estate around encouraging consumption. beyond just moving past coven, we've seen the political situation move forward as well. the 20, if party congress, i think all of these elements are in place. that being said, the few months will be very, very difficult economically. and if i could just follow up with you 1st, 2nd, you're talking about the fact that, you know, china is starting to roll back it's, it's covered restrictions. i mean, obviously this is going to be a delicate time, a delicate transitional time for the economy. china can't really look to other countries as far as what other countries did when, when they dealt with opening their economies back up because china's experiences is quite different. you had the 0 co policy that was implemented for, for so long, and it is only now starting to be east. i mean, has there been enough done to,

to really plan on how to navigate this, this time of great transition? well, mohammed i, you know, i'm not sure how much of a transition is required. now again, there is some risk here. the question mark is, is the, with live aid is very and for these variance are much milder or as mild as people believe. and if so, there are many people coming down with coded in beijing and increasingly cross china. and it said the latest statistics. i saw a board that's 50 percent in in beijing already have cove. it now if it last week or 2, i think people will be moving back to normal. and of course, there is some psychological hesitation. everyone has developed new habits, new muscle memory, about behavior that will take some time to change. but again,

i think the sectors that really matter. i'll look at real estate, look at consumption, look at exports. a government plays a very, very important role here. and government is indicated very clearly that economic growth will be the priority for 2023 and beyond. and we see this with local provincial governments, ah, arranging for charter flights to countries around the world to promote businesses. you know, we may see some very direct measures to stimulate consumption, certainly, and monitor the school policy as well. so i think again for term, and we'll probably touch on this as very challenging, it's very, very challenging. but i think looking ahead, we can expect a pretty powerful rebound, shirley. i saw your reacting to some of what andy was saying there. it looked like you wanted to jump in before i let you do that. i also want to ask you, i mean,

how bumpy from your perspective, how bumpy will the road ahead be for china when it comes to economic recovery. thank you for having the mohammed and he talked about the 2 primary points. the 1st point is on the co bit searching china. and i think that's in itself is you know, your huge uncertainty according to china. so top epidemiologists up to 80 to 90 percent of the population is likely to be infected over the coming months. and so that means roughly about 1200000000 people potentially being infected by cold it. and also with the potential of creating you mutations off this virus and as china starts to open his border wide or to the rest of the world. so now not only this at the surge of the cold, it concerns china itself, but issue reasonably start to concern the economies of the rest of the world. it's

well now when it comes to the economy recovery. yes, he's going to be bumpy. and the quest, the question is, how willing the government is going to be in pumping massive monetary and fiscal stimulus water to revitalize c. because according to the cold pattern chinese, somewhere around the latter part of 2020, for the rest of the world, a, in a way up to 3 years, a call that is just starting to spread in china. so the bottom line, it's a massive stimulus will be required and in the coming central economic work conference, the understanding is cited. monetary and fiscal policy will become more expensive, and china will stay knowledge hard to continue to focus on economic growth priorities. guido, from your vantage point, how disappointing or surprising were these latest economic numbers and also based on what you're hearing of from andy and from shirley. how long do you think it's

going to take for the public and china to feel comfortable enough to, to come out again to start spinning their money again? it has not been surprising, especially because if we consider november, this was the very worst month because not only we still had the results of the previous restrictions, but also where the pros and, and the southern change and the administrative issues on changes and everything. not too much of the job, what if you got a solution and so on. so it was largely predicted how long it will take you depends because it's still try as vaccinated nearly 90 percent of the population, but they only ride on their own box in the way the buyer is roxanne's which are much less effective than the western am or ne routes, and so also the or the office for that. so then a box in. and so they has he dated to roxanne, 8th of the, the elderly. so i'm relatively recently how for the over eighty's in china. we're

not boxing a the, now the government since that are mean to vaccinate the out of the early, more aggressively. however, still, i wonder with their but since how, how protected they we effectively be. so i think it will not be the the, the purpose of reopening, it will not be so fast. and people may have some reason to wait a little bit that says on the economic point of view, they are basically their problems are complement and those are the way they are basically the opposite. here we have inflation there and they don't have inflation . linens relays is 1.6 percent. ok, so there's plenty of scope for monetary policy to stimulate the economy there, which is not the case in our economies and why there's been too much stimulus. and so the idea gradually potentially bumping and low easing of the supply side with the potentially, you know, a good,

good spring sent an acceleration on the demand side. all right, let's take a step back and look at the broader picture for a moment. since the days of masa down in isolation under communism, china's embrace of capitalism has been spectacular. it's become the was largest exporter and 2nd largest importer, the latest world trade organization figures which cover 2020 show china had exports worth $2.00 trillion dollars and total imports with $2.00 trillion dollars. that gives china a healthy trade surplus of more than half a trillion dollars. foreign trade is worth around 35 percent of g d p. so it's vital to the country. china's biggest trading partner is the u. s. followed by the you and asi on members. trade covers of ass spectrum, but electronics and electrical equipment made up around 27 percent of both imports and exports in 2020. according to the world bank, surely let me go to you. so all eyes now or on the annual central economic work conference. that's the meeting in which chinese leaders gather to set up the next

years economic agenda as it were, any indication or, or any idea as to what might come out of that or you had to re focus on economy growth. the key word is really stabilization. it is to staple, i think growth stabilize jobs and to stabilize prices. ad professor correctly pointed out. so inflation is rather low in china. so that really offers quite a lot of levers for china to revitalize the economy, be a physical and mandatory stimulus. and so we're going to see the world's largest economies moving in opposite mandatory and those fiscal cycles are in the foreseeable future. however, as china continues to stimulate through money tree and the fiscal injections, i think that's going to continue to pose some resilience shoot inflation problem. in the western world, and particularly i think policy difficulties to the fed as well. however,

does trade as you correctly mentioned, that mohammed continues to grow despite of 2022 very difficult koby situations. and i think, you know, china is going to continue to buy for becoming not only the large or the world's largest next quarter, but the world's largest importer. however, when it comes to g, d p complication, it is usually the net trade net export. rather, that matters and so that really trade represents a rather small part of china. so gdp today, consumption a culturally represents about 65 percent of china's gdp before colvin. and so the real she revitalization for the chinese economy is going to have to ultimately come from consumption from consumers willing to spend the feeding hope for about the future and gaining our jobs back. guido, do we really understand the fundamentals of how hobble china's economy has been by all of this? and also do people around the world understand the kind of knock on effect. all of

this has outside of china. when i say the effect is big because in real term, despite this by the you on re maybe that being a bit under price, the well, the why the, but the world bank can't compute purchasing power part of the a just the g d p and the g, p, a, china be adjusted, so you real times is about 20 percent 10 percent higher than that of the united states. so you mentioned before in the past that, you know, if the united states needs then, you know, the, did the rest of the course. now we have basically 2 united states. one is china, which is a bit stronger economically at the moment. and we in the, in 24 years to become much more strong, you know, much stronger you about 2 3rd stronger than the united states. so the effect of a supply or demand or reductions in china, i meant for the rest of the world. so it is still

a big in order. and it's important for our, for our products to have their market. because also, as was said, you know, consider domestic sample is going to rise. so you're going to be mature. so i think the, the effects are what happens in china are put amount in the rest of the world. and it look to me also like you were reacting to a guido was saying, did you want to jump in? well, i think it's certainly amongst economists and especially people that focus on the international trade. they certainly recognize the importance of china, but i think what we're seeing as well is just a greater mainstream awareness of how integral china is to the global economy. there is, of course, a lot of talk about global inflation, and i think that's exactly right. that would surely said that there's a lot of head room and in fact, what i'm hearing here in beijing is that up in the upcoming year,

that's the plan start to actually have the economy ryan hotter than normally the government would like exactly to stimulate growth and this of course, can have a global implications on raw materials, inflation, etc. so i think that this is certainly, really, as you said, you used to be with us with uses. the rest of the world catches cold. we're seeing now as china perhaps regains its economic health. moving past cove, it that this will certainly have powerful ripple effects around the world. and the also, you know, chinese media, it's been saying that china has set out plans to expand domestic investment and consumption. i mean, what can be done in order to actually make that happen? well, i think there's a couple things. one of the main policy priorities that relate to this is the so

called dual circulation strategy. endless has 2 components. one is domestic, the 2nd is international. and domestic component is to strengthen the link between manufacturing, distribution and consumption. and this is something that many people outside of trying to might not appreciate because everyone talks about 1.31.4000000000 people, the biggest market in the world for many products. but in fact, china is a big market, but it might not necessarily be a strong market, meaning that there's still a lot of regional friction. so one way us structurally that the government is looking to increase consumption is by reducing some of these barriers, standardization of rules and regulations across the country, making it so whether you're a foreign company or semester company that you can more efficiently, more quickly,

manufactured, distribute, reach consumers and of course by giving consumers more choices. ah, that of course i think leads to greater utilities and economic firm or consumer wellbeing. so that's one of the main ways, but there's other things with governments doing as well. guido, it looked like you were nodding along to some of what the andy was saying, did you want to jump in? just in fact, well then the mentioned about consumption is very important. and it's important for the garden, despite being communist china is one of the most and equal economies actually. so until a china, a robust middle class, so increases equality. it will be difficult to, to rely on domestic consumption. so red distribution is fundamental for growth in china, also something they should watch out anyway, you know,

in the united states. because at the moment, for example, the united states blocked at the export of the semiconductor is an important either, either so containing a critical technology. and this could be problematic for china as technology. so i think china, if they really want girls in 2023 or more to become more than is log. and they should really focus on updating their technology. because that technology has been catching up. and it to some extent and not respecting intellectual property rights completely until now. but now they had to do the, the step and become really know at the end as we have seen recently for college, they couldn't manage to, to create effective amajanae vaccines for example. so there are still some room for improvement in this direction and see, is there a way to get to workforce, you know, well coordinated this,

you're really focus on innovation and technology. surely fears of recession in the us and in europe that has damp and demand for chinese products, at least for the time being. how likely is it that countries can actually reduce their dependence on trying to going forward? and if i may put it the other way around, actually a key canada priority from the beijing perspective is actually to call for technological self reliance. i think personally, are trying to still has quite a few long term structural economic growth drivers are high in manufacturing, will continue to be china. so new growth engine, it has this whole factor, particularly manufacturing the high end, the e, b, 6 cetera, has consistently grown faster than the broader gdp in china for the past few years . in china today is the world's largest e b manufacturer, the largest exporter, and it has a global dominant positions in solar and wind to supply chains. and china is

ironically, leading our global power today in biotech and pharmaceutical sectors. and so all these high you manufacturing not only gives china a killer of a new economic growth engine, it also helps to recalibrate the balance between china, so domestic economy. so today china is moving a lot of the show, you call me focus to china. so west, the, which is traditionally more backward than the east coast developments because of the abundance of solar energy resources fair. so china is moving a lot of the high end, big data computing super centers to china as well. so to give them a sensually a, our engine for growth in the 21st century to show you columns. andy, a big picture here is china's economy ever going to get back to the days of near double digit growth or, or is trying to basically facing a new normal no,

i don't think we'll see. the days have double digit growth again, just because economies go through development phases and just like an infant grows very, very rapidly. but when they hit childhood, adolescence, the rate of growth slows down. i want to go back to something that surely said about the world's dependence when china, i think certainly that as the economy evolves to train as economy applause, this mix is changing as well. so labor costs have gone up in china to find is looking to move up the value chain as well. and what this means is that a lot of that were manufactured, an exported manufactured in china export to places like the us now are still being made by the end of the, perhaps the actual manufacturing is in se asia or mexico. and i think this complicates the picture somewhat and certainly makes this much more challenging for

american policymakers that are looking to prosecute this. 4 quite aggressive series of attacks against train or whether that's technology, whether that trade and you know, this, this trend towards decoupling. so i think there's a lot going on here. but i think the double digit growth days are definitely past for a number of reasons. got the reason to very quickly importance and environment, state ability. so quality growth is the priority. now, not just growth for growth sake. all right, we have run out of time, so we're going to have to leave the conversation there. thanks so much to all of our guests, andy, mark, shirley z, you and guido caught c. and thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com, and prefer the discussion go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. you can also during the conversation on twitter,

our handle is at a jay inside story for me. mm hm. mm hm. jerome and the whole team here, bye for now. ah ah. ah ah.

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