their risk style, i would say it's not gonna messy. he's now been like this. people's reactions have a lot to do with food, were rivalry, but also challenging authority. and that's the beauty of football. i mean, we have some problems here in this house and europe is much more developed area. but when it comes to the game, we are equal teens are excited for the world cup final, hoping that finally, unique, messy, will bring the trophy to latin america. once again, i see that when i this is al jazeera, these, your top stories, least fully. cities in ukraine, including its capital key happened hit on as many as 16 myself launched by russia. cleaning officials say russia military has talked to critical facilities and call key clarity or challenge has more from keith. here's the damage,

as we understand it so far, khaki have a big city completely without power. that we know of increase the re central city to people killed 5 wounded when a residential building with hit there. a death in the south are power shortages here and keep the capital. as you can see, the low cloud cover meant that when i was looking around early, i tried to spot see that the trails of air defense or plumes of smoke on the horizon of successful strikes. i couldn't, all i could hear was the boom boom boom, reverberating around the city to pounds government has proved a tax hellig to increase its military budget. the government will bring spending to 2 percent of g d. p by 2027 sites in growing ministry threats from north korean china. at least 16 people have been killed and several more are missing after

landslide has a camping ground in malaysia. it happened in getting highlands, a popular area outside, calling them for rescue operations underway. period supreme court has ordered the former president petro castillo, to be held for 18 months until his trial castillo has been challenged with rebellion and conspiracy on to trying to dissolve congress in belgium, thousands of people holding demonstrations in brussels, demanding vessel wages to meet the rising cost of living, $3.00 major trade union organize a process which is taking place during this time and need a copy of a court has convicted a former rebel commander war crimes. it found sally must have tortured prisoners in a camp run by the cost of liberation. army during the 1998 and 999. independence will with serbia phase headlines. the niece continues here on the inside story. stay with us.

ah. the latest economic data from china paints a gloomy picture, the slower than expected growth. as the world bank warns of the risk of a worldwide recession next year, what could problems in china mean for the global economy? this is inside stored. ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm how much i'm john. the saying used to be what america sneezes the world, catches a cold. now the global focus is just as much on china covered 19 has had an impact

on the financial health of the world's 2nd largest economy. and it's contagious. so when the latest economic data from beijing showed weaker than expected results, concern spread worldwide will be delving into those statistics in a moment. but 1st, richard kimber in hong kong tells us about the reaction to the figures. there is a growing sense of unease and uncertainty. among the chinese public about just how successfully the country can manage this crucial transition period between what has been a 0 tolerance approach to corona virus cases, to now one in which society and the economy of both rapidly opening up again talking to business consultants in the country, they say that employers a funding that their workforce reluctance go to the office right now. and the companies themselves are reluctant to high a new star or because of an uncertainty about the future, the economy and the future of coven 19 transmission risk in a country that has largely been insulated from any type of widespread transmission . because of the being so many rules and restrictions in place,

that same logic is meaning that some parents are reluctant to send their children to school and talking to shoppers on the street. they didn't want to go to busy places or spend much money, or because of this uncertainty about how the next few months will unfold. economic analysts say this will likely sit back quite some months, any chance of being a quick and efficient economic rebound in china. they're expecting it may be the middle of next year before we see anything close to the type of pre pandemic growth that china was used to. this is affecting, of course, not just domestic chinese companies and their ability to hire and expand it. also, international companies who rely so heavily on china's manufacturing capability for the global supply chains. and so the next few months are being seen as a crucial step in china's cobit 19 experience to see just how much the world's 2nd largest economy can bounce back off to these rules of suddenly all been relaxed. rigid kimber, the inside story. according to china's national bureau of statistics,

retail sales felled nearly 6 percent in november from a year ago. the biggest drop since made industrial production growth slowed to 2.2 percent less than half of october's growth. property investment, which accounts for as much as 30 percent of g. d. p has plunged by nearly 20 percent year on year. and unemployment worsened. rising to nearly 6 percent. it's highest in 6 months. ah. all right, let's go ahead and bring in our guests in beijing. andy mach senior research fellow at the center for china and globalization in washington, d. c. shirley z, you a fellow at the ash center of harvard kennedy school and in san gallons. switzerland. guido caught c a professor of macroeconomics at the university of san gallon, a warm welcome to you all and thanks so much for joining us today on inside. sorry, andy, let me start with you today. the fact that china, the world's 2nd largest economy, is reporting another slump. how concerning is that inside china?

and how concerning is that outside of china? well, thank if you have me on and i think this is an incredibly important question. i'm mohammad. i think that really we should not be concerned at all. let me provide a little bit of context. we've seen the kind of government when the battle against coven, which started out with the delta variant, which had in r o, we're a reproduction number of about to, to the latest variable which has a are lots of something like 16, which is 8 times as infectious. and about as effective as the measles, but fortunately much less lethal. so this is, i think we can understand the rapid relaxation of these very strict coded policies . and what this means is that the fundamental conditions are in place for very

powerful economic rebuild. not only because we're moving into the post coal video in china, but other a policy decisions as well around real estate around encouraging consumption. beyond just moving past coven, we've seen the political situation move forward as well. the 20, if party congress, i think all of these elements are in place. that being said, the few months will be very, very difficult economically. and if i could just follow up with you 1st, 2nd, you're talking about the fact that, you know, china is starting to roll back it's, it's covered restrictions. i mean, obviously this is going to be a delicate time, a delicate transitional time for the economy. china, you can't really look to other countries as far as what other countries did when, when they dealt with opening their economies back up. because china is experiences is quite different. you had to 0 koby policy that was implemented for, for so long, and it is only now starting to be east. i mean, has there been enough done to,

to really plan on how to navigate this, this time of great transition? well, mohammed i, you know, i'm not sure how much of a transition is required. now again, there is some risk here. the question mark is, is the, was living. it is very and for these variance much milder or as mild as people believe. and if so, there are many people coming down with coded in beijing and increasingly cross china. and it's they the latest statistics i saw 50 percent in in beijing already have cove it now if it last week or 2, i think people will be moving back to normal. and of course there is some psychological hesitation. everyone has developed new habits, new muscle, memory, about behavior that will take some time to change. but again,

i think the sectors that really matter. i'll look at real estate, look at consumption, look at exports. a government plays a very, very important role here. and government at the indicated very clearly that economic growth will be the priority for 2023 and beyond. and we see this with local provincial governments ah, arranging for charter flights to countries around the world to promote businesses. you know, we may see some very direct measures to stimulate consumption, certainly and monitor or policy as well. so i think again for term and we'll probably touch on this is very challenging. it's very, very challenging. but i think looking ahead, we can expect a pretty powerful rebound. surely i saw you reacting to some of what andy was saying there. it looked like you wanted to jump in before i let you do that. i also want to ask you, i mean, how bumpy from your perspective,

how bumpy will the road ahead be for china when it comes to economic recovery. thank you for having me, mohammed. and he talked about the 2 primary points. the 1st point is on the co bit searching china, and i think it died in itself. is your huge uncertainty according to china. so top epidemiologists up to 80 to 90 percent of the population is likely to be infected over the coming months. and so that means roughly about 1200000000 people potentially being infected by cold it. and also with the potential of creating new mutations off this virus. and as china are still open is border wide or to the rest of the world. so now not only this at the surge of the cold, it concerns china itself, but issue reasonably start to concern the economies of the rest of the world. it's

well now when it comes to the economic recovery. yes, it's going to be bumpy. and the quest, the question is, how willing the government is going to be in pumping massive monetary and the fiscal stimulus water to revitalize c. because according to the cold, potter chinese, somewhere around the latter part of 2020, for the rest of the world, a, in a way up to 3 years, a call that is just starting to spread in china. so the bottom line, it's a massive stimulus will be required and in the coming central economic work conference, the understanding is cited. monetary and fiscal policy will become more expansive, and china will stay knowledge hard to continue to focus on economic growth priorities. guido, from your vantage point, how disappointing or surprising were these latest economic numbers and also based on what you're hearing of from andy and from shirley. how long do you think it's

going to take for the public in china to feel comfortable enough to, to come out again to start spinning their money again? it has not been surprising, especially because if we consider november, this was the very worst month. because not only we still had the results of the previous restrictions, but also where the progress and the southern change and the administrative issues and changes and everything. not to mention the job. well, if you go to later on and so on. so it was largely predicted how long it will take you depends because it still has vaccinated nearly 90 percent of the population. but they only ride on their own box in the united virus. roxanne's which are much less effective than the western am or ne routes. and so also the or the oxford that's are going to box in and out. so they has he dated to vaccinate the, the, the elderly. so until relatively recently, how for the over eighty's in china,

we're not boxing a the, now the government since that are mean to vaccinate the are the only more aggressively. however, still, i wonder with their but since how help protect that they, we effectively be. so i think it will not be the the, the purpose of reopening, it will not be so fast. and people may have some reason to wait a little bit that says on the economic point of view, they are basically their problems are complement and those are the way they are basically the opposite. here we have inflation there and they don't have inflation lane and relays is 1.6 percent. okay, so that is your scope for monetary policy to stimulate the economy there, which is not the case in our economies and where there's been too much stimulus. so the idea gradual and potentially bumping and low easing of the supply side

with the potentially, you know, a good, good spring, send an acceleration on the demand side. all right, let's take a step back and look at the broader picture for a moment. since the days of masters down in isolation under communism, china's embrace of capitalism has been spectacular. it's become the was largest exporter and 2nd largest importer, the latest world trade organization figures which cover 2020 show china had exports worth $2.00 trillion dollars. and total imports worth $2.00 trillion dollars. that gives china a healthy trade surplus of more than half a trillion dollars. foreign trade is worth around 35 percent of g d p. so it's vital to the country. china's biggest trading partner is the u. s. followed by the you and asi on members. trade covers of our spectrum, but electronics and electrical equipment made up around 27 percent of both imports and exports in 2020. according to the world bank, surely let me go to you. so all eyes now or on the annual central economic work conference. that's the meeting in which chinese leaders gather to set up the next

years economic agenda as it were, any indication or, or any idea as to what might come out of that or you had to re focus on economy growth. the key word is really stabilization. it is to stabilizing growth, stabilize jobs, and to stabilize prices. ad professor correctly pointed out. so inflation is rather low in china. so that really offers quite a lot of levers for china to revitalize the economy, be a physical and mandatory stimulus. and so we're going to see the world's largest economies moving in opposite mandatory and those cisco cycles are in the foreseeable future. however, as trying to continue to stimulate through money tree and the fiscal injections, i think that's going to continue to pose some resilience shoot inflation problem in the western world. and particularly, i think policy difficulties to the fed as well. however,

does trade as you correctly mentioned, that mohammed continues to grow despite of 2022 very difficult koby situations. and i think, you know, china is going to continue to buy for becoming not only the large or the world's largest next quarter, but the world's largest importer. however, when it comes to g, d p complication, it is really the net trade net export. rather, that matters and so that really trade represents a rather small part of china. so gdp today, consumption a culturally represents about 65 percent of china's gdp before colvin. and so the real she revitalization for the chinese economy is going to have to ultimately come from consumption from consumers willing to spend the feeding hope for about the future and gaining our jobs back. guido, do we really understand the fundamentals of how hobble china's economy has been by all of this? and also do people around the world understand the kind of knock on effect. all of

this has outside of china. a defect is big because in real term, despite this by the you on re maybe that being a bit under price, the well, the why, the, but the what bank can't compute purchasing power part of the a just a g p s and the g, b, china b, p a just so you real times, it's about 20 percent 10 percent higher than that of the united states. so you mentioned before in the past that, you know, if the united states needs then, you know, they did the rest of the course. now we have basically 2 united states. one is china, which is a bit stronger economically at the moment, and we're in the, in 24 years to become much more strong, you know, much stronger you about 2 thirds stronger than the united states. so the effect of a supply or demand or reductions in china, i meant for the rest of the world. so it is still a big in order,

and it's important for, for our products to have their market. because also, as was said, you know, consider domestic consumption is going to, right? so as the economy much you are. so i think the, the effects of what happens in china are amount in the rest of the war. and it looked to me also like you were reacting to a guido was saying, did you want to jump in? well, i think i'm a homicide. certainly amongst economists and especially people that focus on international trade. they certainly recognize the importance of china, but i think what we're seeing as well is just to greater mainstream awareness of how integral china is to the global economy. there is, of course, a lot of talk about global inflation, and i think that's exactly right. that would surely said, but there's a lot of head room and in fact, what i'm hearing here in beijing is that up in the coming year

that the plans start to actually have the economy ryan hotter than normally the government with like exactly to stimulate growth and this of course, can have a global implications on raw materials, inflation, etc. so i think that this is certainly, really, as you said, you know, used to be, you know, the u. s. reviews as the rest of the world catches coal. we're seeing now as china perhaps regains its economic health. moving past cove. it that this will certainly have powerful ripple effects around the world. andy, also you know, chinese media. it's been saying that china has set out plans to expand domestic investment and consumption. i mean, what can be done in order to actually make that happen? well, i think there's a couple things. one of the main policy priorities that relate to this is the so

called dual circulation strategy. and this has 2 components. one is domestic, the 2nd is international, and domestic component is to strengthen the link between manufacturing, distribution and consumption. and this is something that many people outside of china might not appreciate because everyone talks about 1.31.4000000000 people, the biggest market in the world for many products. but in fact, china is a big market, but it might not necessarily be a strong market, meaning that there's still a lot of regional friction. so one way us structurally that the government is looking to increase consumption is by reducing some of these barriers, standardization of rules and regulations across the country, making it so whether you're a foreign company or semester company that you can more efficiently, more quickly,

manufactured, distribute, reach consumers and of course by giving consumers more choices. ah, that of course i think leads to greater utilities and economic term or consumer wellbeing. so that's one of the main ways, but there's other things the government's doing as well. guido, it looked like you were nodding along to some of what the andy was saying, did you want to jump in? just in fact, well then the mentioned about consumption is very important. and it's important for the garden, despite being communist china is one of the most and equal economies actually. so until a china, a robust middle class, so increases equality. it will be difficult to, to rely on domestic consumption. so red distribution is fundamental for growth in china. also something they should watch out anyway, you know,

in the united states. because at the moment, for example, the united states blocked at the export of august. and the conductor is an important either, either so containing a critical technology. and this could be problematic for china as technology. so i think china, if they really want girls in 2023 or more to become more than a log and they should really focus on updating their technology because that they can, ology, has been catching up. and it to some extent and not respecting intellectual property rights completely until now. but now they have to do the quality step and become really know at the end as we have seen recently for college, they couldn't manage to, to create the effective monet. vaccines for example. so there are still some room for improvement in this direction. and is there a way to get the workforce, you know, what coordinated they should really focus on innovation and technology. surely

fears of recession in the us and in europe that has damp and demand for chinese products, at least for the time being. how likely is it that countries can actually reduce their dependence on trying to going forward? and if i may put it the other way around, actually i'll keep an army priority from the beijing perspective is actually to call for technological self reliance. i think personally, are trying to still has quite a few long term structural economic growth drivers are high in manufacturing, will continue to be china. so new growth engine, it has this whole factor, particularly manufacturing the high end, the e, b, 6 cetera, has consistently grown faster than the broader gdp in china for the past few years . in china today is the world's largest e, be manufacturer, the largest exporter, and it has a global dominant position in solar and wind to supply chains. and china is

ironically, leading our global power today in biotech and pharmaceutical sectors. and so all these high you manufacturing not only gives china a killer up a new economic growth engine, it also helps to recalibrate the balance between china, so domestic economy. so today china is moving a lot of the show, you call me focus to china. so west the, which is traditionally more backward than the east coast development because of the abundance of solar energy resources there. so china is moving a lot of the high in the big data computing super centers to china as well. so to give them sensually a, our engine for growth in the 21st century to show you columns. andy, a big picture here is china's economy ever going to get back to the days of near double digit growth or, or is trying to basically facing a new normal no,

i don't think we'll see the days of double digit growth again, just because economy is go through development phases and just like an infant grows very, very rapidly. but when they hit childhood, adolescence, the rate of growth slows down. i want to go back to something that surely said about the world's dependence on china. i think certainly that as the economy evolves to train as economy applause, this mix is changing as well. so labor costs have gone up in china to find is looking to move up the value chain as well. and what this means is that a lot of that were manufactured, an exported manufactured in china, export to places like the u. s. now are still being made by china, but perhaps the actual manufacturing is in se asia or mexico. and i think this complicates the picture somewhat and certainly makes this much more challenging for

american policymakers that are looking to prosecute this. 4 quite aggressive series of attacks against training, whether that's technology, whether that trade and you know, this, this trend towards decoupling. so i think there's a lot going on here. but i think the double digit growth days are definitely past for a number of reasons. good reason to very quickly importance and environment stability . so quality growth is the priority. now, not just growth for growth sake. all right, we have run out of time, so we're going to have to leave the conversation there. thanks so much to all of our guests, andy, mark, shirley z, you and guido kaci. and thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com, and prefer the discussion go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. you can also during the conversation on twitter,

our handle is at a j inside story for me. mm hm. mm hm. jerome and the whole team here, bye for now. ah ah. so the 2nd, the 2nd son that i'm going to be at a woke up the 1st time was in seller financing. it really was the basement favor. now again, the country that on residing is hosting a little bit. and i know that a lot of people who live here that might be the 1st time that they're experiencing a woke up. i can tell you it's going to be great. it's a celebration of people. it's a celebration of the school. it's the atmosphere

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