this is not the boost small shop owners. we're hoping for for me if you wanna talk about last year was much better than this year. last year i had a lot of work on the arab who lives at the norfolk for fullest time, like the people who lives in nazareth and to be around these people. they get came to buy and they came in big numbers called the borders were closed. ah, out of the 900 palestinian christians in gaza is radio for it is only granted 600 of them permits to leave to bethlehem the 301 person will be granted a permit, but 2 others of the same family won't. they always leave some one out. so what happens is that the family ends up not traveling with more than $220.00 palestinians killed by israeli forces this year. palestinians are reminded that theory mean under israel's occupation. here say they tried to see any opportunity to celebrate. they live under israel's military occupation until as they don't have

much to do. but to pray for peace. me deborah him. al jazeera, the occupied westbank. ah, taco krycek of the headlines here on al jazeera, at least a dozen people have been killed in blinding blizzards and life threatening temperatures. gripping large parts of the us, more than $1700000.00 homes are without power. thousands of flights have been cancelled. she have a chance, he has more from washington dc across the u. s. and certainly from pennsylvania to florida. they've been told to expect the coldest christmas in recorded in recorded history. the main firm out there is in areas where governor hooker was speaking from, for example, upstate new york buffalo biography calls the great lakes region that's, that's the area where the snow and the wind is still pummeling pummeling the area. people are trapped inside their houses,

and christy is out around the country with religious figures. we hover over a 1000000 people. a 1000000 households are without power right now at least 10 people have been killed by russians. shelling in the southern ukrainian city of her son, president vladimir lansky accused musgrove, killing for pleasure. ukrainian troops retook the city last month and a major setback for russia. a gas tank has exploded near the south african city of box berg, killing 10 people and leaving several others critically injured. emergency services say they're investigating the blast cause widespread damage in a residential area. there's been a 2nd day of unrest in the french capital after the fatal shooting of 3 people at a kurdish cultural center. police fought with protest as were q security forces of not doing enough to prevent the attack and security forces in west m. afghanistan have use water cannon to disperse women, protesting against a band on female students. at universities came on the same day. the taliban government band woman from working for aid agencies is,

has some workers weren't following strict dress. those po francis has worn to be consequences of greed, dounia christmas eve mass. the head of the roman catholic church says the weak and vulnerable victims of the pursuit of wealth and power. $7000.00 people attended the service at saint peter's basilica in the vatican. well, those were the headlines. the news continues here now to 0. after counting the cost statement and to watching hong kong was once celebrated as a beacon for press freedom in asia. but as china tightens its grip on the city journalists fear, they can no longer speak truth to power. journalists and media organizations like were of us, half so respect and comply with them all in 2019 increasing fears that china was eroding hong kong autonomy and judicial independence. spot months of massive sometimes violent protests, the national security law,

which criminalizes terrorism, secession, subversion, and collusion with foreign forces was introduced in 2020. it might be a collusion talking to you now. accepting your interview. it has become a dangerous depression, a dangerous occupation for people who are still interested in reporting the facts. ah, [000:00:00;00] with hello rob matheson, this is counting the cost on all does it your weekly look at the world of business and economics this week, getting more buying for your buck?

the dollars been on the up in 20. 22. what's next for the greenback. also this week, gold hasn't been doing so well this year, but could now did the perfect time for investors to pile back in questions over cryptic crypto prices have been slighting all year. we're going to look what's next for these in tangible assets. as the industry struggles to regain trust the u. s. dollar, it's stronger now than it's been for 2 decades. that's because of the federal reserve with the central bank raises interest rates. it makes the green back more appealing to investors around the global, but the global economy is teetering on a cliff edge fears mount of a worldwide recession. dollars is seen as a safe place to hold your money. now this shows how the dollar's been doing against nearly all. busy other g, 20 economies. overall, the picture seems pretty good. the greenback rallied around 1900 percent in 2022.

the dollar is still strong. even though the u. s. economy has been weakened by the coven pandemic, and a threatening global recession. it's be going a lot going up things to aggressive rate hikes by the federal reserve economic issues overseas and geopolitical uncertainty from the war in ukraine. but there's one big stand on the dollar versus the russian rule. but we're going to get into that later on to discuss all of this and join now by francesco, papa. dia francesco is former director general for market operations at the european central bank. he's also currently a senior resident fellow at the bro, go, thank. thank, thank you very much. indeed for being with us. the dollar is still dominating the investment markets around the world, the currency markets around the world. and yet the u. s. economy has over the last few years because of the pandemic, primarily, but other issues being faltering. why is it that the dollar is still so popular still? well, that dollar has some characteristic, no other currency has. first of all,

the most to develop the sophisticated financial market in the world, then an economy that, notwithstanding, the current issues is still the most important economy economy in the world. then beyond that, there is the strength of the us as a country may lead to really politically bed remains of the most dominant country in the world. so it's no surprise that the dollar says here having the site, i don't see the currency market in the financial world. one of the things i think that might surprise a lot of people is the fact that the rubles been actually performing pretty pretty well. it's not more than 30 percent against the dollars since march, and yet as we know, the russian economy is said to be struggling at the moment. what do you attribute that to? well, i don't think i would give a lot a way to do that. first of all, we don't know how liquid the mike rubel is that we know that there are 4 and

a change controlled. and then it's a fact that the inputs of russia just because the entrance have gone down very that he shall be i. so the current account is in, in high. sure. so i would not take of the strength of rouble as a final strength of the underlying russian economy. we've heard stories for saudi arabia, for example, just recently said that it was going to do trade deals with china in remember, as opposed to other currencies. which means, of course, that saudi arabia is building up a stockpile of remember, does not in any way limit saudi arabia in terms of its ability to trade for other countries, particularly against the dollar. well, i mean, there is no comparison between the re may be and the dollar in terms of liquidity in terms of underlying financial market. what i heard, what i hear about the different countries putting a part on their reserve. they mean, be it's

a pilot just to test the market just to see how it works. there is nothing substantial and the, the weight of that a mean be, for instance, in foreign reserves is very limited on the cost of that. i mean, be, is one of the kind of, of the, of the, the, are about this is a more a political than economic economics that there is a future for the re mean b, but just a, that a future. nothing currently in terms of people's reliance on the dollar, how much of it is down to the fact that as you were talking about before the dollars. so the structure that has built around the dollar is so strong that actually it would take a great deal to logistically and pick all of that in order to focus on another currency. it's not a legitimate argument, is the right to some degree and inertia for people wanting to have to go to the effort of detaching themselves and the dollar. well, there is no shame in the that the weight is called economy network effect,

which is the clearest case for telephone, for instance. i mean, there's no purpose of having a telephone. if you have nobody on the other side of the line and the more people you can reach you with the telephone, the more the telephone is west. and that's the same with, with a dollar. i mean, there is a strong network effect then, you know, but i would repeat is based on the strong foundations, i mean, the only country that could rival the dollar is that you repeat unit, but it's far behind in many, including the sophistication of the financial markets and everybody else is, is way, way, way below. what does surprise, a lot of people, myself included, is the exposure that many countries of the around the world have to the dollar, particularly at times of crisis when we see be the level of antagonism, for example. we see between russia and the u. s. and china and the us and that the holdings of dollars and china,

of dollars by china and russia still seem to be significant. do you think, given recent worse world events or countries like that, or perhaps going to try and move away from the amount of dollars that they have in order not to expose themselves to the level of sanctions that the u. s. can subsequently bring in? well, i think that there is a difference between russia and china. i mean, the holding of dollars of china are being commensurate, really higher than the holding of the dollars by, by russia. so just, this is a kind of a procedure and point on your question. said there is the wish to move away from the dollar, but we're doing the wish and the realization. there is the fact that no other currency, as i said with the very posh and exception of the euro, das have the same liquidity, the same ability to trade, the same underlying force of the financial market. so yes, so there is a wish to do it, but then when it comes to it,

it's very difficult to do it. and for instance, for china, but the killer, differentiating the trillions of dollars of reserves into other currency is very, very difficult. also, because any move of that kind would affect doesn't value of their own returns. so you know, way they are caught into this and it's difficult to move away. yes. so they will try, but it's difficult to do it. i mentioned before uniform a director general for market operations at the e. c. be given your level of experience. how do you see the currency markets and the dollar market particularly moving forward in the next few years? are we going to see any significant changes the way that dollars and other currencies are trading? well, the foreign exchange market is that when, when it comes to the large guarantee, so, so euro dollar, yen dollar stalling, euro is the most resilient or the most sophisticated market in the world.

of course, it doesn't have much of a structure in the sense that much of that just goes on bilateral deals. but it's a very strong market and it's a market that never stopped functioning, even during the most deep crisis. the only competitor to that, in terms of the creativity is the treasury market of the united states. but we know that there have been some tremors in that market as well. so i would say that ornate change market the most resilient market in the global financial global financial world. so there is a need to have more transparency into, into the market. and so i see that that could be moved in that in that direction. but i don't think that there will be dramatic changes seen the way the major carriers are exchanged, francesco poverty, or we really appreciate you giving us the benefit of your expertise. thank you very

much for joining us on counting the cost. you're welcome. so what's next for gold? well, as always, being seen as a safe haven for investors, many turn to the precious metal to protect the hard own savings when high inflation hits other investment products. but gold is denominated in dollars. so the strength of the green back can have a significant impact on its price. well, with us knowledge, i mean on that, he's the chief investment strategist for middle east, north africa, the well known international brokerage all parties joining me now from london. very good to have you with us in your estimation, what's been happening to gold over the last year. say thank you very much. now. firstly, what's really precious global financial. the share included us to nominated stuff sets. this is trevor, the green back as she pointed out, the green back to the us dollar had its strongest year in roughly 20 years. and we haven't seen the pace of us interest rate increases from the best buy to be so aggressive in a generation. so essentially,

the strength of the dollar has pushed all global assets to lower, including us denominated assets such as god. so this is essentially what happens at gold price. we still look up a long term goal is roughly $1760.00 to give. this is an all time high for gold, pretty much historically whether gold prices have dropped as much as 20 percent based on the dollar strength his recovery now. but the strong from a dollar which is like a store to remain supported as much make gold crisis. small medium is it's all done to the interest rate rises, but by the fed. are there other elements that could be playing into this as well? essentially, yes, the us interest rate rises up against let's say, the global economy right now, let's say it's a large piece of cake. now this case is divided into different pieces. we've got us interest rate increases because inflation rates globally with god such to the global energy process. of course we're still seeing the drawbacks and the code and

damage and the impact of government barring and locked down at the same point we've got that's very unfortunate. that's taken place in eastern europe. all of these factors altogether has been what driven the dollar towards its highest level and roughly 20. yes. and we can't say to any one isolated factor, but all of these factors combined, i've already got a dollar at the same point, there is some hope that the dollar has peaked, which would be supportive to gold prospects and other global assets over the medium stand as well, for mr. ramos in the event that interest rates, right, interest rates do come down. i would like to see people making an exodus from gold or and if so, where would they be likely to go or do they stick with it? actually the concerns going to be with likelihood because lower interest rate, dictation, or science that we've seen that peak and interest rates, obviously, inflation to remain a very sustained level. we know this, but it's signs of a cool down could actually increase to get towards precious metals like gold. and this is because the page of the us interest rate increases,

which is obviously the dollar of significant share that's likely to cool down. we see proper taken on the us dollar. we are more than likely to see rebounding gold prospects. and this is a trend that we're starting to see over the past couple of weeks in global financial markets. were china industry and russia are 3 of the main producers of gold in the world? what kind of impact does that demand have on their economies? if anything? well, if we look over the longest and gold precious, it's still very high, $750.00 above this level would still be 10 years ago. the highest level we've seen the global financial crisis in time. what's happened is we saw the peak in because we go to 2000. we also saw a rebound support. those levels are the beginning of the ukraine bull. and since then we should go down. but generally speaking of the longer term go, crisis is still strong. so this is still supported, suppose those economists producing the gold at the same time obviously. and of course, if we do a rebound increase in gold,

you ation this should be positive news for those are produced. and also i so far it all seems very positive. but historically speaking, has ever been a time when gold prices are at least gold, as an investment has become really not worth that. and we've seen people moving away from it. and if so, what would be the signs that we should look for in the event that was likely to happen? this is an excellent point i'm looking at points out here is that the global economic concerns and the potential crisis where now is continued difference of the global financial crush, the 15 years. now, 15 years ago this was seen as like the birth of god, something that really pushed all precious higher at the same point then interest rates globally would be push slower. today we're having a completely different set of forces pushing interest rates higher, which is being negative gold prices. at the same time, we do think best potential as long as you can see around the global economy as it contains books on it, right?

course thing is cross there that we can see optimistic, 2023 for gold. if you had any spare cash lying around with gold, be your 1st option. would you be looking at other possible investments as well? not necessarily because you have to follow the trend and very clearly the trend is being your friend in 2022. and that friend has been to us dollar an uncertain times such as the very sensitive dynamics we've taken place right now in the global economy. but donor is still your best friend. hopefully we see a bit of a change to watch the global circumstances that might mean the dollars. not so much of your best friend. and we could start to bring over, for instance, with a mix such as gold, simila island, that we appreciate you being with us and kind of the cost. thank you very much indeed for your time, sir. what has now been a great year for gripped occurrences, particularly the companies behind them. the still isn't much oversight of the market. and there are growing calls from regulators and even some crypto industry leaders for more controls. but coin dominates the market. it's surge by 300 percent

at the start of the pandemic in 2020 investors. we're looking for safety for economic volatility since then, high inflation, fuel shortages and the water ukraine. i've caused a self and perceived risky assets like stocks and crypto currencies. so the mock is already volatile and key crypto lenders have seen a slew of other setbacks for the industry, including withdrawal limits and the collapse of the crypto giant, f t x. would you be causing more panic and more selves? want to talk about those issues in more detail. let's bring in hugh robert space, director of research and analytics that conte insight in london. very good to have you with this. what's your assessment of how the industry has been working, say over the last 12 months or so? a bit of background 1st, because content we come extra to be from a macro perspective. so when we're looking at an industry like what are we really thinking? well point does this go to the new, relatively new industry, start to behave a bit more like a traditional financial asset and

a short on to there's for the 1st part of this year. it wasn't trading like a macro instrument. it was like an equity or a commodity or any other risky asset. it was being driven by news that was specific to crypto. so it was nice things like the merge, i guess for syria. but around early summer time, our model showed that actually all the major currencies, bitcoin, us area, all moved into new macro regimes. and what we mean by that is that all of a sudden they behave much more like traditional financial markets. they care about inflation. they care about what the state is doing. they care about what sister asset classes, whether they're dollars strengthening, with a credit spreads widening. and the main message from that was in a period of high inflation and the fed and others, central banks, hiking interest rates that was negative or risky assets including crypto. so the bear market was something that was entirely consistent with the kind of broad macro

fundamental conditions prevailing. how much is it also about faith? i don't understand a tremendous amount, but about crypto currency simply because to me it's incredibly technical. but to an outsider like me, it seems as though it is essentially based on the trust of the people that are creating the cryptic currency that is going to work and the trust of people investing in it, that it will work. but as soon as that trust is gone, then things start to come apart. how fragile is the market? would you say, even though it's at a mac or a macro economic stage that you're talking about? yeah, i mean, that's a very fair summary. i mean, in a way that the central tendons, this whole decentralization means that you remove a trusted are going to central counter party. now for traditional financial players . now, one of the big lessons from the 20082009 financial crisis was the important of the counter party. you and i could have a bet now on whether the dollar is going to get stronger this year next year. and i

might be right and you might be wrong, but if i say i was a counter party, then you got no one to actually pay out your winnings. so the importance of the extra cost of the counter party is absolutely critical to the financial system. and as soon as you lose that for us, and that's obviously we've had a few blows already, but the latest f t x as obviously just taken us to a whole new level. so i think your summary is very fair. i think the short answer to your question is, this is done untold damage to the industry as a whole, and you've got to think that will be some die hard to stick to the end. but anyone who is a marginal participant, you've got to think this is very scary news. how much of this is done to the reliability for want of about a phase of crypto currency itself and how much of it know is about the efficient running of the companies which are supporting it as for example, the example, the used f t x. yeah, absolutely. so i think the,

the 2nd part of that question is probably the most important part. i mean, they were just know what we can tell our i'm not a specialist in the area of regulation or compliance, but you know, the more news that emerged or than november with regards to the s t x story suggest a complete absence of control. so all the normal regulation and compliance checks that should be seen at the most basic one segregation of accounts. people who are depositing money with cx, it was in the contract, that money should not be there lent onto a trading arm. and yet there was a back door citing that money out. so that is just about basic one or one company policy company regulation. and if you, if you destroy that and it does a lot of damage reputation. yes, it's going to again to be on your question. it's going to really damage trust or the loss here. so we've seen or heard stories of a significant number of governments from a local level up to a national level investing and things like bitcoin and other crypto currencies.

there are countries which are bringing in or attempting to bring it in as legal tender. is that a mistake or do you think that actually they are doing the right thing? as long as the company is running? it are regulated? yeah, i have no degree of specialization in this area, but i would towards that not being there, you can actually get a good thing. know a lot of the technology underpinning this. now to block chain are, those are some of the advantages that it brings are clearly beneficial for individuals for companies, for the broader system, but for it to operate from outside of any control has to be a mistake in my opinion. so i think having kind of central bank digital tokens, given the central central banks have to main roles. typically, it varies country by country, but on the whole central banks and then to fight inflation, keep inflation under control and oversee that countries, financial system and ensure stability. so they have

a vested interest and ensure that there are no blocks on their watch. so central banks having involvement in this, in the criminal industry, to my mind is, is almost inevitable, taking the wider view. and i appreciate, of course, that you know that that's what you do want inside. and if it gets to the stage where crypto currencies are, do become regulated in a similar way to say regular banks. if they become more exposed to the macro economics that we see around the world. what's the benefit of them compared to regular currencies, for example? and investments one of the technical advances that it is used as a fish and sea from a kind of traditional financial market asset allocation perspective, if you like. the way that the traditional investor will think about things as well . given where we are an economic cycle, what's the best asset class to, to put my money in? so if we're in a kind of an economic boom,

then you'll invest in risky assets like equities, crypto is going to be viewed as a risky asset, so it will tend to do well in good times. if we're asked that question, we scenario as many people fair and maybe chipping over into. ready session in 2023 . then people will look for safe havens. now at one point, crypt i was how that as a safe haven. i don't think anyone would really buy that argument today. but the other argument that gets rolled out with script currency is an inflation hedge. and actually we have the ability in our models to look at the independent relationship between an asset and all the various factors, including inflation and been going does do a good job of tracking inflation expectations. so these relationships have been flow. that's the whole point of the business on the white markets trade. but i can see advantages for crypto over and above the, the technical, technological advances that it brings as potentially maybe in tracy. for example, here of it's a director of research analytics content site in london. we appreciate you being

with us. i thank you very much indeed. thanks. and that is our show for this week, but remember, you can get in touch with us via what's up, use the hash tag, ha, ctc. when you do or you can drop us an e mail address is counting the cost at al jazeera dot next. but this more for you online that al jazeera dot com slash ctc. that's going to take you straight to a page and get individual ports, links an entire episodes for you to catch up on. and that's it for this edition of kind of cost. i'm rolled matheson in the whole team. thanks for joining is the news and algebra is next. i all ready for the 1300000 a. be that this is only the beginning that ecuador is going to keep moving forward

with the medical break. the moment 1st, then they go back to being forgiven for thinking that south korea a happy doctrine. fair. i can tell you that i said don't discount australia because they're going to come out fighting and fighting at the end of an incredible dramatic game. a i buried on time in depth analysis of the days headlines from around the world. whatever it did was it to them they have to find because they didn't, they wouldn't get in. frank assessments. do you think diplomacy still spends a chance? so i'm not very up to about any kind of negotiation informed opinions. everybody

tweets. everybody's all tick, tock, tick, tock doesn't vote. you have to put a winter. it's going to hold there pretty soon inside story of al jazeera and talk to i will just see a bend in by the international community. we listen, we have a huge price for the rural, i'm gonna terrorist that's going on. so my, we meet with global news makers. i'm talk about the stories that matter. one out, you see we understand the differences and similarities of culture across the world. so much i'm glad you called al jazeera will bring you the news and current affairs that mattie out is there