shall i says related accounts have tripled. it's not just hit speech, so it say, i think it's all saw national security issues. recent history shows however, that while companies rise and fall, tech always bounces back. recessions are good for entrepreneurship. is because you have free time, you been laid off, so you go to starbucks and sit there at a table. and you can hire people who've also been laid off. you can't tell by the people sitting there which tables the winter, but one of those tables is going to create a multi $1000000000.00 unicorn company. silicon valley is full of talent, ideas and money, which eventually combined to start the next cycle of boom and bust. rob reynolds al jazeera was angelus ah,

logan, i'm fully battle with the headlines on al jazeera d u. n. z refugee agency says at least a 180000000 refugees who were stranded at sea for weeks and now presumed dead in a separate incident. at least 240 people have arrived on indonesia, northern archie province since sunday, after weeks, etc. a frenchman has reportedly been charged with the killing of 3 people in an attack on a kurdish cultural center in paris. earlier march was held to honor the victims. the 69 year old accused of carrying out friday, shooting, told police. he was motivated by hatred of foreign, his osama bin janet has more from paris. this is something which is infuriating, not just the kurdish community, but other migrant communities here as well. because we've been speaking to some migrants here in on the streets, and they tell us that if it was, it wasn't somebody who was from the majority of the french people. if it was minority, whitfield committed this attack. his whole family would be under prosecution. his

neighbor would have been dug out and there would be if sorrow, questioning of everybody who was included, which is clearly according to them, not happening now. south korea says it's fired warning shorts after several north korean drones entered his hair space. local media see the drones were detected in civilian areas in the county province. after nearly 3 years of tough water restrictions china's cropping cove in 19 quarantine for overseas arrivals from january, the 8th people coming from abroad will no longer have to go into isolation. meanwhile, china's leader has urge health official to take action to protect lives as a country battles. ironing cove 19 infections is the 1st time teaching being has spoken publicly since speaking east. strict containment measures the death toll from one of north america's more severe winter storms. in decades has risen to 48. more than half of those are in new york state, one of the worst effected areas in the us from residence. there remained trapped with our power, with part of the states buried under

a meter of snow. and the united nations mission to afghanistan as sole the taliban administration to reverse a ban on female workers at 8 agencies. acting head of the un mission met with the economy minister on monday for major o 8 organizations have now suspended their operations. in afghanistan, you are up to date with the headlines on al jazeera, i'll be back in 30 minutes with the al jazeera news. our right after inside story, stay with us. ah more missiles and deaths in ukraine, russian military personnel killed the course. the border president vladimir putin says he's prepared to negotiate and accuses ukraine of refusing to well,

what are the chances of a negotiated settlement of the war? this isn't ah, hello, welcome to the program. i'm him wrong current. the war in ukraine is the worst military conflict in europe since the 2nd world war. there is no official death, but in the 10 months of fighting that been tens of thousands of military and civilian casualties. and millions of people have fled the homes, all wars, and eventually some in outright victory and defeat, others around the negotiating table. ukraine's president vladimir lensky is reportedly working on a peace plan to be enveloped. in february rushes, president vladimir putin says he's open to discussions to end the war and blames his opponents for refusing to negotiate. was the shame. so i believe we are acting

in the right direction where defending our national interests, the interest of our citizens, our people, i reiterate, we don't have any other choices, but to protect our citizens. however, we are prepared to negotiate some acceptable outcomes with all the participants of this process, but it's their business. it's not as to refuse talks, it's them you president zalinski. i says that putin's apparent willingness to negotiate is a delay tactic off to russia, suffered major setbacks on the battlefield. houses. you need me to little, only a few days of this year left. we must be aware that our enemy will try to make this time dark and difficult for us. russia has lost everything it could this year, but it is trying to compensate for its losses with the gloating of its propagandists after the missile strikes on our country. on our energy sector, i know the doctors will not prevent us from bringing the invaders to their new defeats, but we must be ready for any scenario. ah,

that's bringing our guests upon falcon. howard is the defense and military analyst . he joins us a, by skype from moscow. hannah celeste is the security studies program director, the think tank ukrainian prism. she joins us from odessa and chris we for is the c o at micro advisory, a consultancy focused on russia and eurasia. he joined us from london, a warm welcome. tea all at lights began in moscow with powerful falcon, our up quite predictably, the west and ukraine. have rejected this idea of any kind of peace talks, the whilst there is still a war in ukraine on ukraine, some would say, going on is president vladimir putin serious about these talks? i won't president fortune has the recent will be said expressing his desire to find a negotiated conclusion to this conflict. even called it a war which she previously didn't. russian diplomats are moral a saying the same as so it seems that the crown one really wants to have some kind

of conclusion. oh and, and the her still at these. but of course, on their own terms of there have also been other expressions and of coming from moscow to day. there's an article published in the government press east gazette there by a former president meets human village of hostile still right now. and the official and the security council of the russian federation for says that no police, no negotiations with the ukrainians, rushes glad to balance on the brink of a total nuclear war until the west accepts russian conditions on giving it full security guarantees. i. so i mean there with wearable mcveigh dufus wearing the bad policeman apparently put in the good policeman over that bowie. yes, the russia once ah pause in the fighting to freeze the situation more or less

as it is right now. it's understood in moscow bit in the, in key offending the width. that's not really right now accepted in the worst. there are different opinions, though, basically there's about backing up the ukrainian. so that means mosque, or we most likely putting more military pressure on ukraine to facilitate ah, kind of agreement on basic. we status quo and freezing the status quo morrow. anna celeste in odessa. what do you make of what pablo falcon harris just said? there is this idea that putin might be ready for peace talks. you believe, let him repeat it. you know, to be ready for the top, doesn't need to be ready for withdraw. well, or for the peace or the end of the conflict. because negotiation of any type of negotiation that is just the instrument, the question is what you want to discuss during the initiation, mr. putting

a definite no reading called a certain type of machine. but what he would like to negotiate there. first of all, it is definitely why does 2 rounds of play where the spark of its national interest or any teach. and we hear it not only did your boss from mr. so south and the fact that is, you know, the need speak louder than the word at the same day when you said both negotiation, it was the extreme challenge of your thought, the, to the new deliberative, follow the with an 80 or was it while you're speaking about negotiation as a way for keith. no, no tries to destroy the teeth that you just wore and up and you are not bringing additional wire from the last we the additional weapons coming to old wonderful train and especially in the region reject the fighting just to fight places. so

we found that after now you need negotiations are politically for your friends around us. but the tax you tell each you as part of the previous 5 because you need additional are me style that you like it. now in the next one to teach and the training of the will more than like personal. and they'll also they'll, when to uniform from think what the washing forces are lot to be prepared for such an increase in our personal. so here need be, oh, it's called operational pro, but not the sci fi or the pcp. she but hannah, you make an interesting point then i'll bring it up with chris and with poverty in just a minute. i'd like to ask you, you're talking about the idea that there are praising these tensions and then going to negotiate towards, but you'll talk to about ukrainian serenity. all of these issues can only be negotiated once the part. once the 2 people sit round a table, you're not even getting to that stage yet, you're already putting up barriers. why don't you just start talking?

why doesn't the ukrainian president and the russian president basically start talking? first of all, let's not minutes away because we pray him side was ready of the day. one not speaking above the last night years negotiations with mr. you. the last negotiation when you're graham and russian president in december, 2019, are aware in ferry, they agreed that monster also president will leave and focus there. man, russian, president, post you, jack the any type of the negotiation. tell us, it's not going to talk with you pena. so when we appear in february with the roll of invasion, we had ukrainian russian machines in dealer, if some will. what are the result? nothing. because even when russia to lose what they come, words are they want the only or what you go. it is the fact that in the nation of the cranium, who because they were talking about our language, both our story,

both our policy choices. there were speaking about teeth and brain, young people, and then the word was from some marginal that is the worst of the political leaders of the country. joe, now off the night on the situation didn't change. that's why when the president, president, the thing both negotiations, he is not rejecting negotiations are the instruments or final maintenance, but he's raising the questions. * about what we're going to need to she if we come in and it's saying that what you like about some dentistry takisha of your brain. you understand the manipulation is pulled searching. chris, i will come to you in just a 2nd, but i'd like puzzles, reaction to the i mean, the bombings and negotiations sometimes gum hand in hand. and just the 50 years ago, there were the air or christmas bombings of north vietnam by the americans ordered

by president richard nixon, to facilitate peace talks in paris and won't be stalks as soon be a resume there. and the a piece it was agreement was found though, of course in the end it ended with the north. it, them, he's taking over south it man, but anyways, so this is not the bombings and piece talks often come together. and i believe that right now, rush and long range of vaccine to ukraine. have also the prime objective of actually forcing ukrainians to the negotiating table that are without maybe break conditions. but that's right. and the rat russia would want, ah sovereignty. most likely, of course, would be good for russian to get sovereignty, say are bringing agreeing to, sorry, a seed sovereignty over cry me or something. but again, that's understood that that's not happening, but

a long term pause in the fighting. a pause in the fighting or would be important right now for russia, and that's most likely what they kind of realize of bo objective that moscow sees right now achievable. chris are in london and chris europe, a consultancy this focused on russia in you raise an extensive experience in the region. here we're looking at a situation where the ukranian morale is higher. civil society is backing a lot of the re, cranium military. they're in a good position. they about to get the patriot defensive missile system from the u . s. as part of this one point, i think $7000000000.00 aid package that they're going to get the ukrainians are in a very good position in moscow, wants to pause in the fighting to be able to go to the negotiating table. is there any way that these 2 sides can meet when ukraine doesn't quite have the upper hand

or it's certainly in a better position? yeah, i think touch, you know, just reflecting what was previous speakers said. the position of russia appears to be one of maximizing pressure, not only on you, praying with this strike stuff, see an infrastructure and on people, but the putting pressure also on, on ukraine, supporters on europe for example, if we checked her. and of course, i think that the timing therefore is, you know, and then we are moving into the kind of more the culture part of winter where energy you know, will be much bigger issue potentially still, you know, energy cost centered is disruption. so i think, you know, for russia, this is the best time to both maximize pressure on ukraine and maximize pressure, perhaps on europe, or at least going to take advantage of the maxima pressure on europe,

the energy says. and then at the same time, you know, put on the table, the possibility or the openness for talk. so i think the timing is to do with, you know, the weather, the energy fact there. and also i think the fact that, you know, ukraine is now greed this, a very substantial deal with us is just bench, patrick missiles and other technology. so again, the situation militarily might be quite different than the spring are after the spring and, and russia maybe more vulnerable. so this is for sure, the best time for russia to both increased pressure as well as offer the possibility of talks and also in terms of the economy. we are moving into a different phase in the economy in russia and more di, debilitating, phase, 2022. it was more about crisis management, but russia has made a great deal of money. a lot of money this year of trade surface will be close to

$300000000.00. so the national welfare fund and the other financial reserves are site, but that is going to change. it's already changing the, the ban on crude imports to europe. the ban on the pro products coming in february and then much lower volume of gas exports in to europe. that means russia will earn a lot less in 2023. and as we go forward, of course, you know that that, that will have more of a damaging impact and will reduce fresh financial reserve. so yeah, i think all of these things combined as to why we're now hearing this possibility of, of talks at this stage, rushes position may, we can, as we go forward, you know, you cannot make it because of the accumulation of sanctions impact upon what do you think russia's position is weak and therefore it needs to come to the negotiating table. is that accurate assessment for you? oh, sure. sure line is that russians ok. the immersion military,

strong russian defense industry is producing more weapons. western sanctions are not working, but of course it's well understood. but there are serious problems that are on there in the battle fronts. it's more or less, they'll make them get burse. and so russia anyways, needs pause to rearm to actually consolidate it's very thorough. grabs on fire, prepare for possible further conflicts in the future. and so that would be a preferable result. yes. okay, right, offering a talk says good. if it doesn't work well, then there's going to be military pressure coming and it won't work where everyone

is preparing bracy for the acceleration of the fighting in on the battlefield in may be rather soon and january say a when the cold weather freezes the dirt. finally, and both sides can go mo bile, which they cannot yet right now. because though it's very wash winter in moscow, their own, they are in the south of ukraine. it's not, but it will be, and most likely, both sides military are looking forward for decisive crash, where russia hopes to stop and ukrainian offensive and reverse it, and has reserves for that. so it's most likely seen that 1st there's going to be increased fighting. and then as the result of that fight, it may be both sides will agree to negotiate some kind of stop for it. unless

lester president load him is lensky is talking about this piece. plan the once a unveil in february, this bill plenty of time between now and february to finalize up his mind. but what would you like to see in that plan? you know, the person philanthropy already. you said you are yes about what he inside your and she's latest features. i'm definitely there are sick bases restoration of your pregnancy tomorrow. and cherokee and serenity is b on there is something that we are not ready to discuss. what is drive any normal discussing how to stay without your hands up to your rates? yes, you are. would like to have all the on party. the 2nd is a definite, you sit on guarantees for the premium security or something, not like that. you the best memorandum that was signed by when rejected our nuclear weapons, but it is something that can prevent the further possible attacks from the washington ration. because unfortunately, currently there in your praying that in several years, the brushing will probably repeat that he can repeat doesn't matter how the

fighting is happening now, we are picking up. 8 the coalition of friends and partner's life can be with us. in this case, we think about the possible control over the russian military fear problem and not the thought of similar to revision of some dream about. but it needs the maybe the militarization of the ally on the cranium borders. we also seek above the record struction plan. that's also the big question. will be reckoned trucks in the country that is deployed now by russian. and why are the western governments you pay for the one we have a lot of the russian money being proved in different countries. so that is definitely quite a complex plan that has both the security for the new trip. but also the social humanitarian for involves the record structure of the country as a bow to the treat you know, or you can call in any different way. but the vote just because there are so many

military and the war crimes being need to during the month. it's an unfortunate great coverage and we find you more and more cases of the mosque graves of the civilian feelings and so on that you praying a nation, you really calling for the justice. that's why we, on the sound, the fall of the peace plan also will be any type or the justice 1st would be the information for media or the treat, you know, sorry hand i all running our time. and i'd like to, i would like to put the points that you've made to chris. busy we for chris, we're looking at 2 very stark positions here, 2 very 2 positions, but so far apart from each other, that negotiated settlement seems highly unlikely. is there any room for maneuver the you can see, i think in terms of the position stated by both sides, then you'd have to say no. the positions are just polar opposites from each other. and, you know, at the very minimum, you're talk,

what years and years and years of negotiations, i think realistically enough, domestically what people are hoping for is simply a frozen conflict. a cessation of the fighting where, where, where, where the missiles are no longer flying. and people are no longer dying. that is, i think, the most realistic kind of level of optimism at this point not, you know, what type of piece feel like the finally to go see it just because that just seems so far away. really there's, there's that there's, there's no level of optimism, both sides could come together based on where they are right now. we would require leadership change in russia for sure, but many, many years. so i think at this stage what we're, what we're looking for, and maybe what must was hoping for is the terms of some sort of a ceasefire, where the political process can then start and last for years. but a ceasefire would be important for russia because it would probably end the momentum towards new sanctions. if there was a cease fire. and remember,

a lot of the most damaging sanctions against russia are voluntary, rather than legislative. that it was companies that have on their own initiative, decided not to by russia not to work with russia, not to be in russia are still leaving. so i think a cease fire then you might must go may, i hope that those sanctions momentum and some of the voluntary sanctions for the east and companies will be under less pressure to leave. so i think it's all about a ceasefire. it's not about the stock stage that's just too far to distance and to difficult puzzle in moscow. would moscow consider a ceasefire as a guest in london has just said we didn't consider that as a victory. oh, not a lift. when anything that happens, the cremeans going to spin as victory. that's not the problem. i buy the cease fires, walk russia right now, needs based, as i say on more or less the wine of control of freezing of the situation. and details of who gets what are negotiable,

but that that is the baseline. and yes, that was most likely moscow was one, but i don't right now see this happening immediately. i believe that 1st is going to be decided on the battlefield and most likely during a short but maybe a vicious winter campaign because in the west, people in the winter go to winter quarters. you don't 5 minutes treason and russia and ukraine. they do. because then the there are freezers and you can move through fields and their growth. so it's everything frozen a solid. and that's where most likely both sides military military commands and both sides are gearing up for a very serious crash in this coming may be january, february of which will made the side. will there be

a ceasefire on which lines of control this is fires burned to had to, sorry, family, however we are running out of time and i do want to come to hannah as well. hannah, you've heard, will publish a said the is going to be way more fighting before any kind of sci fi comes into place. but is this, i see spy the best you can hopeful? now ukraine is not searching for the e. fire. i just to see fire, we understand that our armed forces, the best security guarantees, but at the same time referring to your frame, the so we sat about to be you side positions or to athenians. there are no 2 opinions. it's not the commercial dispute. we have the victim and we have an aggressive when you have a keeler. i rate this on the beach and you're not speaking about 2 positions. you're speaking about who should be punished and which way you're not negotiating about these. you're protecting and defending thought. think about these punk me from the side and in be safe. it's not to be easier to think about. what's your praying and sites you did your to his chris really had both august the. there is

plenty of fighting to come. that's what we're hearing. but winter is coming, and this is a conflict that can be fought in winter by to size up significant experience in all of this. so a sci fi seems completely unlikely. do you still believe that's the most likely outcome after hearing to guess it's the only outcome where there can be any level of optimism. i mean these talks and find a peace agreement, i think is just so far distant. it's not really work even considering at this point, but as a 1st stage, there of course has to be a cease fire. whether or not that can be agreed before an escalation and citing well, we have to wait to see simply don't know. but i do believe that this is one of the kind of objectives of. busy the kremlin energy strategy, the fact that you know it has europe under a lot of energy pressure coming into winter. i think the hope from moscow is not present. lensky will agree to sit down or to, to a cease fire,

but the perhaps pressure from europe, or pressure from other countries to support your brain, right? that pressure may then change the equation and lead to a piece. i see fire. so i think you said to be clear, i think it is the only a cease fire is the only level of optimism that anybody can realistically hope for . the question is whether that can come before an escalation and slicing or not. we simply don't know, but we know moscow is, is, i think that's what moscow's preference would be at this stage, but the previous speakers say, it's just not clear at all. i want to thank all our gas apples. helena, how, how does she last and chris we thought, and i want to thank you as well for watching. now you can see the program any time by visiting our website out is there a dot com and for further discussion, go to a facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. and you can also join the conversation on twitter. handle is at a jane site story. for me,

am ron kahn, and the whole team hit by finance? ah ah. the wind blows the fishing boats home as it has for the countless centuries people have lived here. these are malagasy migrants they move from the drought written south in such a means to survive. and as story is the interface between climate change and biodiversity laws, the arrival of the migrants is adding to the precious on fish, dogs and marine by diversity,

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