salon democracies, the want to displacement of masses of our populations, and the needless loss of considerable numbers of lives. in november of french president m n, when my co announced to the end of back can a decade long counter terrorism operation, 3000 french soldiers are expected to leave the sal stepping into the gap in molly, are russian fighters from the wagner group. but so far, they too have failed to stop the attacks that are making countries such as been in ghana and tow go the new frontline, the fight against arm groups. nicholas hawk al jazeera. ah, he watching out his hair and these are the main stories. now the death toll from one of north america's most severe winter storms and decades has risen to at least 50. more than half of those are in new york state is governor is warning,

the storm is far from over. if reason, conditions brought travel chaos during the holidays with the grounding of more than 1000 flights person, jordan has more from washington dc. the number of people who have been trapped in their homes are trapped in their cars. try to get from one place to another. as the rescue crews try to reach those people, particularly in new york state, they extract that they are going to apply to more people may have perished because of exposure because of hypothermia and the very, very cold temperatures. that's how much of the country has seen in the past 5 days . denominations mission to afghanistan is told the taliban administration to reverse the bad on female work as an aid agencies. the acting head of the un mission met with the economy minister on monday. 6 major aid organizations have suspended their operations in afghanistan. civilian airports near the south korean,

the capital were closed temporarily on monday. when north korean drones were detected, their soul is the 1st time in 5 years that wrong yang has violated it. south korea's air space the when's refugee agency says at least 180 rocking refugees who are stranded at sea for weeks and are presumed dead in a separate incident at least 240 people arrived on denisia at norfolk i said province since sunday, after weeks at c, a drone shot down by russian soldiers has killed 3 of their colleagues. russia's defense ministry says it was a ukrainian trying to flying over an air base in serrato, in southern russia. some of the heaviest fighting in ukraine is concentrated around the eastern city of buck moot. ukraine says it's repeatedly pushed back russian forces. but the situation at the front line is becoming increasingly difficult. and china is scrapping, cobra 19 quarantine rules for people arising from overseas. utterly 3 years of

tough border restrictions from johnny, the 8th that people coming from abroad will no longer have to go into isolation. travelers will still need their negative. he c r test to enter the country. the move comes as beijing admits the scale of the current outbreak, has become impossible to track. well, those are the headlines. news continues here in al jazeera. that's off the inside story. this tape of this ah, law missiles and deaths in ukraine, russian military personnel killed the course. the border president vladimir putin says he's prepared to negotiate and accuses ukraine of refusing to us. we ask,

what are the chances of a negotiated settlement of the war? this is ah hello, welcome to the program on iran con, the war in ukraine is the worst military conflict in europe since the 2nd world war . there is no official death, but in the 10 months of fighting that have been tens of thousands of military and civilian casualties. and millions of people have fled the homes, all wars, and eventually some in outright victory and defeat. others around the negotiating table, ukraine's president vladimir lensky is reportedly working on a peace plan to be unveiled in february. russia's president vladimir putin says he's open to discussions to end the war and blames his opponents for refusing to negotiate. was the shim so i believe we are acting in the right direction where

defending our national interests, the interests of our citizens, our people, i reiterate, we don't have any other choices, but to protect our citizens. however, we are prepared to negotiate some acceptable outcomes with all the participants of this process, but it's their business. it's not as to refuse talks, it's them you president zalinski. i says that putin's apparent willingness to negotiate is a delay tactic off to russia, suffered major setbacks on the battlefield, houses total only a few days of this year left. we must be aware that our enemy will try to make this time dark as difficult for us. russia has lost everything it could this year, but it is trying to compensate for its losses with the gloating of its propagandists after the missiles strikes on our country. on our energy sector, i know the doctors will not prevent us from bringing the invaders to their new defeats, but we must be ready for any scenario. ah,

that's bringing our guests upon falcon. howard is the defense and military analyst . he joins us a, by skype from moscow. hannah celeste is the security studies program director, the think tank ukrainian prism. she joins us from odessa and chris we for is the c o at micro advisory, a consultancy focused on russia and eurasia. he joined us from the london a warm welcome to you all at lights began in moscow with papa falcon, our up quite predictably, the west and ukraine have rejected this idea of any kind of peace talks, though, whilst there is still a war in ukraine on ukraine, some would say, going on is president vladimir putin serious about these talks? oh, president, fortune has been recent will be sent expressing his desire to find a negotiated conclusion to this conference, even called it a war which she previously didn't. russian diplomats are more of a saying the same. and so it seems that the crown one really wants to have some

kind of conclusion. oh and, and if we're still at these, but of course on their own terms of there have also been other expressions and of coming from moscow to day there's an article published in the government breast. he's the guy said that by a former president meets human village. if we're stock still right now. and the official and the security council of the russian federation, who says that no beauty, no negotiations with the ukrainians or rush is going to bounce on the brink of a total nuclear war until the west accepts russian conditions on giving it full security guarantees. i. so, i mean, there are with where we very dufus wearing the bad policeman apparently put in the good policeman. but happily, yes, the russia once ah pause in the fighting to freeze the situation more or less

as it is right now. it's understood in moscow that in the, in key a friend in the west that's not really right now accepted in the worst. there are different opinions, though, basically there's about backing up the ukrainian. so that means mosque, or we most likely putting more military pressure on ukraine to facilitate ah, kind of agreement on basically status quo and freezing the status quo morrow. anna celeste in odessa. what do you make of what pablo fall gonna harris has said, there is this idea that putin might be ready for piece talks. you believe lame, repeated you know, to be ready for the top, doesn't need to be ready for withdraw. well, or for the peace or the end of the conflict, because negotiation of any type of negotiation that is just the instrument. and the question is what you want to discuss during this conversation. mr. put in

a definite, no reading called the certain size of the she shall, but what he would like to negotiate there. first of all, it is definitely why the rounds of the play where the spark of its national interest or any teach. and we hear it, not only did you bought from mister south and that that is, you know, the need pick louder than the were at the same day when you said both negotiation. it was the extreme challenge of your fault, the, to the new deliberative, follow the with that an 80 or was it while you're speaking about negotiation of the piece, you're not trying to destroy the teeth that you just wore. and definitely you are not bringing additional wire from the last we the additional weapons coming to old . what are you trained? especially the region region and the fighting just to fight places. so we

found that now you need negotiations. politically for your friends is the land tax you tell leads to as final to previous 5, because you need additional our me files that you like. now in the next one to teach and the training of the will more than like personal the and they'll also they'll when to uniform from think what the washing versus if you're lot, be prepared for such an increase in our personal. so here need be, oh, it's called operational pro, but not the sci fi or the pc that hannah you make an interesting point. then i'll bring it up with chris. and we're the herb hovel in just a moment. i'd like to ask you, you're talking about the idea that there are freezing these attentions and then going to negotiate towards, but you'll talk so talking about ukrainian serenity. all of these issues can only be negotiated once the part. once the 2 people sit round a table, you're not even getting to that stage yet, you're already putting up barriers. why don't you just start talking?

why didn't the ukrainian president and the russian president basically start talking? first of all, let's not minutes away because the right hand side was ready for the day one not speaking above the last night negotiations with mister put in the last negotiation when ukrainian or russian presidents happen in december 2019 are aware in fact, they agreed that monster rather will leave and focus then, man, russian, president, you jack the, any size of the negotiation tell us, it's not going to talk with your prayer. so while we are here in february with the role of invasion, we had ukrainian russian negotiation in dealer in some book. what are the results? nothing. because even when russia would want to be comp words, are they want the only or what if you go, it is the fact that in the nation of cranium, who, because there were talking about our language about our story,

both our or in policy choices. there were speaking about read you teeth and brain young people, and that is the word most from, from marginal that is the worst of the political leaders of the country. you know, now often i didn't change. that's why when the president president saying both me, she should, he is not rejecting negotiation or the or final but he is raising the question about what we're going to need to she if we have carmen and it's saying that what you like about some dentistry takisha of ukraine, you understand the installation is full searching p chris, i will come to you in just a 2nd, but i'd like puzzles, reaction to the i mean, the bombings and negotiations sometimes gum hand in hand. and just the 50 years, the girl, there were the christmas bombings of north vietnam by the americans ordered

by president richard nixon. to facilitate peace talks in paris, an won't be stalks as soon be a resume there. and the a piece of agreement was found though, of course, in the end it ended with the naughty of them. he's taking over se, ma'am, but anyways, so this is not the bombings and these talks often come together. and i believe that right now, russian long range of vaccine to ukraine have also the prime objective of actually forcing ukrainians to negotiating table that are without maybe break conditions. but that's right. and the rat, russia would want, ah, sovereignty most likely was worse, would be good for russian to get sovereignty, say are bringing agreeing to, sorry, a seed sovereignty over crimea or something. but again, that's understood that that's not happening, but

a long term pause in the fighting a pause in the fighting or would be important right now for russia. and that's most likely what they kind of realize of bo objective that moscow sees right now. achievable, chris are in london across europe, a consultancy that is focused on russia in you raise an extensive experience in the region. here we're looking at a situation where the ukranian morale is higher. civil society is backing a lot of the re, cranium, military. they're in a good position. they about to get the patriot defensive missile system from the u . s. as part of this one point, i think 1000000000 dollar aid package that they're going to get the ukrainians are in a very good position here. moscow wants to pause in the fighting to be able to go to the negotiating table. is there any way that these 2 sides can meet when ukraine

doesn't quite have the upper hand, but it's certainly in a better position. yeah, i think that's just reflecting what was previous speakers said the position of russia appears to be one of maximizing pressure. not only on your praying with this strike stuff, see an infrastructure and on people, but the putting pressure also on, on ukraine, supporters on europe for example, checked her. and of course, i think that the timing therefore is, you know, the incident that we are moving into the kind of more, the colder part of winter, where energy, you know, will be much bigger issue potentially still, you know, energy cost centered is disruption. so i think, you know, for russia, this is the best time to both maximize pressure on ukraine and maximize pressure, perhaps on europe, or at least going to take advantage of the maxima pressure on europe,

the energy sense. and then at the same time, you know, put on the table, the possibility or the openness for talk. so i think the timing is to do with, you know, the weather, the energy fact there. and also i think the fact that ukraine is now greed this a very substantial deal with us. it's just bench, patrick missiles and other technology. so again, the situation militarily might be quite different than the spring or after the spring and russia maybe more vulnerable. so this is for sure, the best time for russia to both increased pressure as well as offer the possibility of talks and also in terms of the economy. we are moving into a different phase in the economy in russia and more di, debilitating, phase, 2022. it was more about crisis management, but russia has made a great deal of money. a lot of money this year. trade surface will be close to

$300000000.00. so the national welfare fund and the other financial reserves are site, but that is going to change. it's already changing the, the ban on crude imports to europe. the ban on the pro products coming in february . and then much lower volume of gas exports in to europe. that means russia will earn a lot less in 2023. and as we go forward, of course, you know that that will have more of a damaging impact and will reduce fresh financial reserve. so yeah, i think all of these things combined as to why we're now hearing this possibility of, of talks at this stage, rushes position may, we can, as we go forward. so you know, you cannot make it because of the accumulation of sanctions impact. uh, what do you think russia's position is weak and therefore it needs to come to the negotiating table? is that accurate assessment for you? all horse issue on is that russians ok. the immersion military strong,

the russian defense industry is producing more weapons. western sanctions are not working, but of course it's well understood. but there are serious problems that are on there in the battle fronts. it's more or less they'll make them get burse. and so russia anyways, needs pause to rearm to actually consolidate it's very thorough. grabs for 5, prepare for possible further conflicts in the future. so that would be a preferable result. yes, a offering a talk says good. if it doesn't work well, then there's going to be military pressure coming. and it was like where everyone

is preparing bracy for all of them. the, an acceleration of the fighting in on the battlefield in may be rather soon in january, say a when the cold weather freezes, the dirt fine away. and both sides can go mo bile which they cannot yet right now. are because though it's very wash winter in moscow, their own, they are in the south of ukraine. it's not, but it will be, and most likely, both sides militarily looking forward for a decisive crash where russia hopes to stop and ukrainian offensive and reverse it and has reserves for that. so i, it's most likely seen that 1st there's going to be increased fighting. and then as the result of that fight, it may be both sides low, agreed to negotiate some kind of stop for hellish list. present loading met

lensky is talking about this piece plan the ones to unveil in february this bill plenty of time between now and february to finalize that piece. but what would you like to see in that plan? you know, the president, hello, silver d effect. you ideas about what is inside your latest feature? definitely, there are certain basic restoration of the finance referral, interpret serenity, the actual there it is something that we are not ready to discuss. what is right, any of the how to pay without your hands up to? right? yes, your would like to have all your boss in. the 2nd is definitely guaranteed for your frame security. if something multiply the memorandum, signed by reject our nuclear weapons. but something that can prevent the further possible attack ration because unfortunately, currently there are you in your brain in several years, the brushing probably to peter can teeth,

doesn't matter how the fight is happening. now we are speaking about the coalition of friends and partners. a life can be with us. in this case. we think about the possible control over the russian military. fear probably not the total militarization of some dream about, but it needs the maybe the militarization, all the ally on our premium borders. we also seek above the record struction plan. that's also the big question. will be wreck and trust in the country that is deployed now by russian. and why are the western governments you pay for the? well, we have a lot of great russian money being proved in different countries. so that is definitely quite a complex plan that has both the georgia for the new reports, but also the social humanitarian for the record structure of the country as evolves to the treat you know, or you can call it in any different way. but just because there are so many

military as the all war finds the need to during the month of an unfortunate each we great coverage and we find you more and more cases of the mosque graves of the ceiling and all of that you praying a nation is really calling for the justice. that's why we, on the sound, the fall of the peace plan also will be any type or the justice 1st would be the true nation community or the treat, you know, sorry, 100 all running our time. and i'd like to, i would like to put the points that you've made to chris we for chris, we're looking at 2 very stock positions here. 2 very, 2 positions so far apart from each other. that negotiated settlement seems highly unlikely. is there any room for maneuver the you can see, i think in terms of the position stated by both sides, then you'd have to say no. the positions are just polar opposites from each other. and you know, at the very minimum, your talk for years and years and years of negotiations,

i think realistically enough, domestically what people are hoping for is simply a frozen conflict. a cessation of the fighting, where, where wherever the missiles are no longer flying and people are no longer dying. that is, i think, the most realistic kind of level of optimism at this point, not, you know, what type of piece feel like the finding negotiated. because that just seems so far away that really, that there's, there's, that there's that there's no level of optimism the both sides could come together based on where they are right now. we would require leadership change in russia for sure, but many, many years. so i think at this stage what we're, what we're looking for, and maybe what must was hoping for is the terms of some sort of a ceasefire. where the political process content starts and last for years. but a ceasefire would be important for russia because it would probably end the momentum towards youth sanctions. if the is a cease fire. and remember,

a lot of the most damaging sanctions against russia are voluntary, rather than legislative. that it was companies that have on their own initiative, decided not to supply russia not to work with russian, not to be in russia are still leaving. so i think a cease fire then you might must go, may hope that's those sanctions momentum. and some of those voluntary sanctions east and companies will be under less pressure to leave. so i think it's all about a ceasefire. it's not about the stocks stage that's just too far to distance and to difficult pavel in moscow. would moscow consider a cease fire as our guest in london has just said, would it consider that as a victory or not? i mean, anything that happens the kremlin is going to spin as well. that's not the problem, but the cease fires. what russia right now needs based, as i say on more or less the wine of control of freezing, of the situation and details of who gets what are negotiable. but

that is the baseline. and yes, that was most likely, moscow was one, but i don't right now see this happening immediately. i believe that 1st is going to be decided on the battlefield and most likely during a short but maybe a vicious winter campaign because in the west, people in the winter go to winter quarters. you don't fight when it's freezing and russia and ukraine they do. because then the dirt freezes and you can move through fields and their growth. so it's everything frozen a solid. and that's where most likely both sides military military commands and both sides are gearing up for a very serious crash in this coming made the january february of which will made the side. will there be

a ceasefire on which lines of control this is fires burned to hat, sorry, pamela hava, we are running out of time. and i do want to come to hannah as well. hannah, you've heard, well publish a said the is going to be way more fighting before any kind of sci fi comes into place. but is this, i see spy, the best you can know for now, ukraine is not searching for the east fire. i just to see fire, we understand that our are the best security guarantees, but at the same time referring to your frame, the so we sat about to be you side positions or to athenians. there are no opinions . it's not the commercial dispute. we have the victim and we have an aggressive when you have a keeler or a rate this the victim, you're not speaking about 2 positions you're speaking about who should be punished and which way you're not negotiating about to be so protecting and defending thought. think about this function from the side and be safe. it's not to be easier to think about what you're praying and sites you did. he or to his chris, really of her both august the there is plenty of fighting to come. that's what

we're hearing. but winter is coming, and this is a conflict that can be fought in winter by to size up significant experience in all of this. so a sci fi seems completely unlikely. you still believe that's the most likely outcome after hearing not to guess. it's the only outcome where there can be any level of optimism. i mean these talks and find a peace agreement. i think it's just so far distant. it's when you work even considering at this point, but as a 1st stage, there of course has to be cease fire. whether or not that can be agreed before an escalation and slicing. well, we have to wait to see simply don't know. but i do believe that this is one of the kind of objectives of the kremlin energy strategy. the fact that you know, it has europe under a lot of energy pressure coming into winter. i think the hope from moscow is not present. lensky will agree to sit down or to, to a cease fire,

but the perhaps pressure from europe, or pressure from other countries that support your brain, right? that pressure may then change the equation and lead to a piece. i see fire. so i think you said to be clear, i think it is the only a cease fire is the only level of optimism that anybody can realistically hope for . the question is whether that can come before an escalation and fighting or not. we simply don't know what we know moscow is is i think that's what moscow's preference would be at this stage. but as the previous speaker say, it's just not clear at all. i want to thank all our guests. apollo helena howard. hannah celeste and chris weaver, and i want to thank you as well for watching. now you can see the program any time by visiting our website out is there a dot com and for further discussion, go to a facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. and you can also join the conversation on twitter. handle is at ha ha,

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