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tv   Inside Story  Al Jazeera  December 27, 2022 10:30am-11:01am AST

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trying to study further and further back us so that we can understand better at the time in cosmic history, that we've only been able to really see our eyes. webb's astronomers spotted water, carbon monoxide and gases that volcanoes release into atmospheres of planets. far beyond our son, one system orbiting a son known as trappist one, looks tantalizingly similar to our own though. now we have kind of our 1st chance at studying another star system that has a bunch of small rocky planets to say, okay, how different are they? what does that mean about their potential for supporting light? and astronomers used web to make discoveries much closer to home. when i saw the 1st image of neptune with james web space telescope, i actually started to cry. i had been waiting for over 30 years to see this planet again, like that when i saw 1st of warmus with the rain system of neptune, the last time we had seen it was in 1989. when the void,
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your spacecraft flew over the cloud tops of neptune in 2023 web will study hundreds of new targets and probes will reach new asteroids. that says india ames for a lunar landing and europe plans a mission to the i. c. moons of jupiter, colon baker al jazeera. ah, i'm, let's take you through some of the headlines here now the 0. now south korea is present yoon. so fuel says his country needs better and defense systems. monday sol detected north korean drones and it's asked, vice president wants to fast track a specialist military drone unit order yesterday. not at good. he has military dance, invaded our aerospace, the incident showed our substantial lack of our military preparedness and training for the past several years. and clearly confirmed the need for a more intense readiness and trainings going on. the death toll from the major
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winter storm that hit north america over the weekend has risen to 50. thousands of people are still without power across the us and canada. many remains stranded in their homes after heavy snowfall. another boat full of anger must some refugees has landed in northern indonesia. the 2nd arrival in as many days at least 185 people disembarked on our jail monday. they're now receiving medical care. the refugee say they left bangladesh in november, ukraine's fraser involved mil zalinski says 9000000 people are still without electricity despite his government's efforts to restore power. the electricity grid has been damaged by shelling as russia targets. energy facilities survey as president is raised. the military's combat readiness to the highest level. alexander vouchers says it needs to prepare to defend sir b as the territorial integrity tension between serbia and kosovo escalated on
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sunday. after shots were fired at a board, a town in northern coast over japan will require travelers arriving from china to produce negative cov 19 tests. prime minister for mucus, she there says passengers who test positive will be required to quarantine for 7 days. aging has been easing, pandemic restrictions in recent weeks as 2020 jewels with we were slacks on the major stories hit shatelle join now dizzier per series of in depth, of looking back at this year and a head to 2022 more missiles and deaths in ukraine, russian military personnel killed the course. the border president vladimir putin says he's prepared to negotiate and accuses ukraine of refusing tools. we ask,
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what are the chances of a negotiated settlement of the war? this isn't close. ah . hello, welcome to the program. i'm in ron con, the war in ukraine is the worst military conflict in europe since the 2nd world war . there is no official detto, but in the 10 months of fighting, they have been tens of thousands of military and civilian casualties. and millions of people have fled the homes, all wars, and eventually some in outright victory and defeat, others around the negotiating table. ukraine's president vladimir lensky is reportedly working on a peace plan to be unveiled in february, rushes, president vladimir putin says he's open to discussions to end the war and blames his opponents for refusing to negotiate. was the shame. so i believe we are acting
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in the right direction where defending our national interests, the interest of our citizens, our people, i reiterate, we don't have any other choices, but to protect our citizens. however, we are prepared to negotiate some acceptable outcomes with all the participants of this process, but it's their business. it's not as to refuse talks, it's them you president zalinski. i says that putin's apparent willingness to negotiate is a delay tactic off to russia, suffered major setbacks on the battlefield. houses. you need me to little, only a few days of this year left. we must be aware that our enemy will try to make this time dark as difficult for us. russia has lost everything it could this year, but it is trying to compensate for its losses with the gloating of its propagandists after the missiles strikes on our country. on our energy sector, i know the doctors will not prevent us from bringing the invaders to their new defeats, but we must be ready for any scenario. ah,
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that's bringing our guests upon falcon. howard is a defense and military analyst. he joins us a, by skype from moscow. hannah celeste is the security studies program director, the think tank ukrainian prism. she joins us from odessa and chris we for is the c o at micro advisory, a consultancy focused on russia and eurasia. he joined us from the london a warm welcome to you all at lights began in moscow with papa falcon, our up quite predictably, the west and ukraine have rejected this idea of any kind of peace talks, though, whilst there is still a war in ukraine on ukraine, some would say, going on is president vladimir putin serious about these talks? oh, president, fortune has recently will be said expressing his desire to find a negotiated conclusion to this conference, even called it a war which she previously didn't. russian diplomats are moral a saying the same. and so it seems that the crown one really wants to have some
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kind of conclusion. oh and, and if we're still at these, but of course on their own terms of there have also been other expressions and of coming from moscow to day. there's an article published in the government press east garcia there by a former president meets human village. if was dallas to right now and the official in the security council of the russian federation, who says that no beauty, no negotiations with the ukrainians or rushes, glad to bounce on the brink of a total nuclear war until the west accepts russian conditions on giving it full security guarantees i so i mean there with wearable mcveigh dufus wearing the bad policeman apparently put in the good policeman. but that boy, yes, the russia once ah pause in the fighting to freeze the situation more or less
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as it is right now. it's understood in moscow that in the, in key a friend in the west that's not really right now accepted in the worst. they are different opinions, though, basically there's about backing up the ukrainian. so that means mosque, or we most likely putting more military pressure on ukraine to facilitate ah, kind of agreement on basically status quo and freezing the status quo morrow. anna celeste in odessa. what do you make of what pablo fall gonna, harris has said, there is this idea that putin might be ready for peace talks. you believe, let him have heated you know, to be ready for the top, doesn't need to be ready for withdraw. well, or for the peace or the end of the conflict? because negotiation, any type of negotiation, that is just the instrument. the question is,
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what you want to discuss during this conversation, mr. put in a definite no reading called the certain cipher, she shall, but what he would like to negotiate there. first of all, it is definitely why the rounds of the play where you park ridge, national interest, or any teach and we hear it's not only did your boss from mr. south. and the fact is, you know, the need speak louder than the word at the same day when you said both negotiation is worth the extreme challenge of your thought, the, to the new deliberative, follow the with that an 80 or was it while you're speaking about negotiation as a way for peace, no, no tries to destroy the teeth that you just wore. and definitely you are not bringing additional wire from the last we the additional weapon coming to old. what are you trying, especially the region region and the fighting just to fight the places we
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found the s and how would you need negotiation politically for your friends to land tax. you tell each you at $50.00 to pre this 5 because you need additional on me file that you like it. now in the next one to teach and the training of the newly more than like 1st and all that. and they'll also they'll, when to uniform from think what the washing versus if you're look to be prepared for such an increase in our personal. so here need be, oh, it's called operational pro, but not the sci fi or the pcp. she but hannah, you make an interesting point, then i'll bring it up with chris and with poverty in just a minute. i'd like to ask you, you're talking about the idea that they're all praising these tensions and then going to negotiate towards, but you'll talk so about ukrainian serenity. all of these issues can only be negotiated once the. once the 2 people sit round a table, you're not even getting to that stage yet, you're already putting up barriers. why don't you just start talking?
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why doesn't the ukrainian president and the russian president basically start talking? first of all, let's not minutes late because the right hand side was ready for shot of the one not speaking above the last night. here. negotiations with the last negotiation between ukrainian or russian precedence happened in december 2019 aware in the lead that monster over rather well nice and focus. then man, russian, president, you jack the, any type of negotiation tell us, it's not going to talk with your prayer. so while we're here in february with the roles of invasion, we had ukrainian russian negotiation in bella in some book. what are the result? nothing because even when russia to lose, what do they come? what are they want the only or what if you go it is the fact that in the nation will crania who because they were talking about our language. both our story,
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both our or in policy choices there were speaking about, read you keith and brain young people. and that is the word more from, from marginal that is the worst of the political leaders of the country. you know, now off the night on the situation didn't change. that's why when the president president saying both me, she should, he is not rejecting negotiations on the instrument or final agreement. but he's raising the questions about what we're going to need to she if we have carmen. and it's saying that what you like about some dentist cation of ukraine. you understand the limit. lation is full search. and chris, i will come to you in just a 2nd, but i'd like puzzles, reaction to the i mean, the bombings and negotiations sometimes gum hand in hand. and just the 50 years, the girl there were the, or christmas bombings of north vietnam by the americans ordered by
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president richard nixon. to facilitate peace talks in paris. an won't be stalks as soon be a resume there. and the a piece of agreement was found though, of course in the end it ended with the north. it, them, he's taking over south it man, but anyways, so this is not the bombings and peace talks often come together. and i believe that right now, rush and long range of vaccine to ukraine. have also the prime objective of actually forcing ukrainians to the negotiating table that are without maybe break conditions. but that's right. and the rat, russia would want, ah, sovereignty most likely was worse, would be good for russian to get sovereignty, say are bringing agreeing to, sorry, a seed sovereignty over crimea or something. but again, that's understood that that's not happening, but
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a long term pause in the fighting a pause in the fighting a would be important right now for russia, and that's most likely what they kind of realize. the bo objective that moscow sees right now achievable. chris are in london and chris europe, a consultancy this focused on russia in you raise an extensive experience in the region. here we're looking at a situation where the ukranian morale is higher. civil society is backing a lot of the re, cranium military. they're in a good position. they about to get the patriot defensive missile system from the u . s. as part of this one point, i think 7000000000 dollar aid package that they're going to get the ukrainians are in a very good position in moscow, wants to pause in the fighting to be able to go to the negotiating table. is there any way that these 2 sides can meet when ukraine doesn't quite have the upper hand
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or it's certainly in a better position? yeah, i think that's just reflecting what was previous speakers said. the position of russia appears to be one of maximizing pressure. not only on praying with this strikes up see an infrastructure and on people, but the putting pressure also on, on ukraine, supporters on europe for example, checked her. and of course, i think that the timing therefore is, you know, the incident that we are moving into the kind of more, the colder part of winter, where energy, you know, will be much bigger issue potentially still energy cost centered is disruption. so i think, you know, for russia, this is the best time to both maximize pressure on ukraine and maximize pressure, perhaps on europe, or at least going to take advantage of the maxima pressure on europe,
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the energy says. and then at the same time, you know, put on the table, the possibility or the openness for talk. so i think the timing is to do with, you know, the weather, the energy fact there. and also i think the fact that ukraine is now greed this a very substantial deal with us. it's just bench, patrick missiles and other technology. so again, the situation militarily might be quite different than the spring or after the spring and russia maybe more vulnerable. so this is for sure, the best time for russia to both increased pressure as well as offer the possibility of talks and also in terms of the economy. we are moving into a different phase in the economy in russia and more di, debilitating, phase, 2022. it was more about crisis management, but russia has made a great deal of money. a lot of money this year. trade surface will be close to
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$300000000.00. so the national welfare fund and the other financial reserves are site, but that is going to change. it's already changing. they've been on crude imports to europe, the ban on the pro products coming in february. and they're much lower volume of gas exports in to europe. that means russia will earn a lot less in 2023. and as we go forward, of course, you know that that, that will have more of a damaging impact and we'll reduce fresh financial reserve. so yeah, i think all of these things combined as to why we're now hearing this possibility of, of talks at this stage, rushes position may, we can, as we go forward. so you know, you cannot make it because of the accumulation of sanctions impact. uh, what do you think russia's position is weak and therefore it needs to come to the negotiating table? is that accurate assessment for you? well horse issue line is that russians ok, the immersion motor
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a strong the russian defense industry is to see more weapons that western sanctions are not working. but of course it's well understood. but there are serious problems that are on there on the battle fronts. it's more or less, they'll make them get burse. and so russia anyways, needs pause to rearm to actually consolidate it's very thorough. grabs on fire, prepare for possible further conflicts in the future. so that would be a preferable result. yes, a offering a talk says good. if it doesn't work well, then there's going to be military pressure coming and it was likely everyone is
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preparing bracy for the acceleration of the fighting in on the battlefield in may be rather soon in january say, or when the cold weather freezes, the dirt finally, and both sides can go mo bile, which they cannot yet right now. because though it's very wash winter in moscow, their own, they are in the south of ukraine. it's not, but it will be, and most likely, both sides military are looking forward for decisive crash, where russia hopes to stop and ukrainian offensive and reverse it, and has reserves for that. so it's most likely seen that 1st there's going to be increased fighting and then as a result of that fight, the may be both sides will agree to negotiate some kind of stop for hannah
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celeste, a president low to mid zalinski, is talking about this piece plan the once a unveil in february, this bill plenty of time between now and february, to finalize that piece by. but what would you like to see in that plan? you know, the president landscape already. you said you are yes about what is inside your and she's latest features. i'm definitely interested based restoration of your pregnancy tomorrow in cherokee and serenity is b on there is something that we are not ready to discuss. what is drive any normal discussing how to stay without your hands up to your right? yes, you are. would like to have all the on party. the 2nd is definitely to sit on guarantees for the premium security or something, not like that. the best memorandum that was signed by when rejected our nuclear weapons, but it is something that can lead man to the further possible attacks on washington ration. because unfortunately, currently there in your brain. in several years, the brushing probably to peter can repeat,
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doesn't matter how the fighting is happening now, we are speaking about the coalition of friends and partner's life. grace can be with us. in this case. we think about the possible control over the russian military fear probably not the total symbol. it's the revision of some dream about, but it needs the maybe the militarization of the ally on the premium borders are we also seek above the record struction plan? that's also the big question, will be reckoned trucks in the country that is deployed now by russian. and why are the western governments you pay for the when we have a lot of the russian money being proved in different countries? so that is definitely quite a complex plan that has both the security for the new reports, but also the social humanitarian for the record structure of the country as a bow to the tree, you know, or you can call in any different way. but just because there are so many military
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and the war crimes being needed during the 5 months, it's an unfortunate great coverage. and we find you more and more cases of the mosque graves of the civilian feelings and all of that you praying a nation is really calling for the justice. that's why we on the sound, the fall of the peace plan also will be any time or the justice 1st will be the true information for meeting or the treat, you know, sorry, 100 my all running our time. and i'd like to, i would like to put the points that you've made to chris we for chris, we're looking at 2 very stock positions here. 2 very, 2 positions so far apart from each other. that negotiated settlement seems highly unlikely. is there any room for maneuver the you can see, i think in terms of the position stated by both sides, then you'd have to say no. the positions are just molar opposites from each other. and, you know, at the very minimum, you're talk,
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what years and years and years of negotiations, i think realistically enough, domestically what people are hoping for is simply a frozen conflict. a cessation of the fighting, where, where wherever the missiles are no longer flying and people are no longer dying. that is, i think, the most realistic kind of level of optimism at this point, nuts you know, what type of piece feel like the finally that goes here just because that just seems so far away really there's, there's, there's, there's no level of optimism, the both sides could come together based on where they are right now. we would require leadership change in russia for sure, but many, many years. so i think at this stage what we're, what we're looking for, and maybe what must was hoping for is the terms of some sort of a ceasefire, where the political process can then start and last for years. but a ceasefire would be important for russia because it would probably end the momentum towards new sanctions. if there was a cease fire. and remember,
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a lot of the most damaging sanctions against russia are voluntary, rather than legislative. that it was companies that have on their own initiative, decided not to by russia not to work with russia, not to be in russia are still leaving. so i think a cease fire then you might must go, may hope that those sanctions momentum would end some of the voluntary sanctions. the east and companies will be under less pressure to leave. so i think it's all about a ceasefire. it's not about the stock stage that's just too far the distance and to difficult puzzle in moscow. would moscow consider a ceasefire as a guest in london has just said we didn't consider that as a victory. oh, not a lift. when anything that happens, the cremeans going to spin as victory, that's not the problem by the ceasefire is lakresha right now needs based, as i say on more or less the wine of control of freezing of the situation and details of who gets what are negotiable. but that,
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that is the baseline. and yes, that was most likely moscow was one, but i don't right now see this happening immediately. i believe that 1st is going to be decided on the battlefield and most likely during a short but maybe a vicious winter campaign because in the west, people in the winter go to winter quarters. you don't fight bennett's treason and russia and ukraine they do. because then the dirt freezes and you can move through fields and they're crowed, said it's everything frozen a solid. and that's where most likely both sides military with military commands and both sides are gearing up for a very serious crash in this coming made the january february of which will made the side. will there be
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a ceasefire on which lines of control this is fires burned the hat, sorry pamela hava. we are running out of time. and i do want to come to hannah as well. hannah, you've heard, well, publish a said the is going to be way more fighting before any kind of sci fi comes into place. but is this, i see spy, the best you can know for now, ukraine is not searching for to see fire. i'd be ok. just to see fire, we understand that our armed forces, the best security guarantees, but at the same time referring to your frame, the so we sat about to be 2 sides positions or 2 athenians. there are no opinions, it's not the commercial dispute. we have the victim and we haven't addressed them when you have a keeler or a rate this on the weekend. you're not speaking about 2 positions you're speaking about who should be punished and in which way you're not negotiating about these, you're protecting and defending thought. think about this function from the side and be safe. it's not to be easier to think about. what's your praying and sites you did your to his chris, really of her both august the there is plenty of fighting to come. that's what
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we're hearing. but winter is coming, and this is a conflict that can be fought in winter by to size up significant experience in all of this. so a sci fi seems completely unlikely. do you still believe that's the most likely outcome after hearing to guess it's the only outcome where there can be any level of optimism. i mean, he's talks and find a peace agreement. i think it's just so far distant, it's when you work people considering at this point. but as a 1st stage there of course has to be cease fire. whether or not that can be agreed before an escalation sizing. well, we have to wait to see simply don't know, but i do believe that this is one of the kind of objectives of. busy the kremlin energy strategy, the fact that you know it has europe under a lot of energy pressure coming into winter. i think the hope from moscow is not present. lensky will agree to sit down or to, to a cease fire,
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but the perhaps pressure from europe, or pressure from other countries to support your brain, right? that pressure may then change the equation and lead to a piece. i see fire. so i think you said to be clear, i think it is the only a cease fire is the only level of optimism that anybody can realistically hope for . the question is whether that can come before an escalation and slicing or not. we simply don't know what we know. moscow is is i think that's what moscow's preference would be at this stage. but as the previous speaker say, it's just not clear at all. i want to thank all our gas apples, hogan our honda, celeste and chris. we thought, and i want to thank you as well for watching. now you can see the program any time by visiting our website out there a dot com and for further discussion, go to a facebook page at facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. and you can also join the conversation on twitter
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handle, is that a jane slate story for me and ron kon and the whole team here? ah. join the debate. when we talk about climate change in africa, we should focus on education, not mitigation on our online, at your voice. it shouldn't be exploiting us what love, what not is being right now is being everything that is going to benefit them more revealing new perspectives. like getting without a proportion. no, no, his reach and has power is what is this proportion? and the st. we're a global audience, becomes a global community on al jazeera, 15 year old jen as a cat and they used to play on this rooftop with her brother at to have a pallet. and her cap blue at home was the one who found her sister's body late on sunday for a walk over after the israeli forces withdrew,
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i came back home. my uncle told me to called jana, i found her date and the cat was next to her. i couldn't believe my eyes, friend say jenny, i like to paint job and watch soap operas. the family says she used to help her sick mother. now they're all facing life without her. john, i would have turned 16 later this month. instead of her birthday party, family and friends gathered for her burial rights organization defense for children . international says more than 25 percent of palestinians killed by israeli forces in the occupied with bank this year with children. many like at home see their friends and family members being killed and fear they'll be next. ah.

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