astronomers used web to make discoveries much closer to home when i saw the 1st image of neptune with james web space telescope, i actually started to cry. i had been waiting for over 30 years to see this planet again, like that when i saw 1st and foremost with the rain system of neptune, the last time we had seen it was in 1989 when the voyager spacecraft flew over the cloud tops of neptune in 2023 web, we'll study hundreds of new targets and probes will reach new asteroids that says india ames for a lunar landing and europe plans emission to the i. c moons of jupiter. collin baker al jazeera. ah, this is al jazeera and these i headlines now. south korea's president unit look, so you'll says the country needs better air defense systems. that's after north

korean drones entered. it says based on monday, the president is also announced he wants to fast track, especially as drone unit. meanwhile, the south korean military is issued an apology for failing to shoot down the aerial vehicles. order yesterday, not at court, he has military drones invaded our airspace. the incident shows our substantial lack of our military preparedness and training for the past several years and clearly confirmed the need for more intense readiness and trainings going across the border. north korea's lay, the kim joelyn is opened. a meeting of the workers party is often used the event to announce major policy decisions ahead of the new year. north korea has 5 a record number of missiles this year. taiwan has announced the plan to extend compulsory military service to counter threats from china. dozens of chinese plains crossed into ty, pays defense own. on monday,

the biggest daily incursion in years. japan will require travelers arriving from china to produce negative cov 19 tests. prime minister for mucus sheeter says passengers or test positive will have to quarantine for 7 days. china has been easing, pandemic restrictions in recent weeks, despite the spread of the virus or another boat with ro hanger. most them refugees has landed in indonesia. the 2nd arrival in as many days at least a 185 people arrived in archie or monday. they're now receiving medical care. the refugees say they left bangladesh in november. the death toll from the winter storm bit hit north america has risen to 50. thousands of people are still without power across the us and canada. survey as president has raised the military combat readiness to the highest level. tensions between serbia in

kosovo escalated on sunday. after shots were fired as a border town in northern kosovo. soviet refuses to recognize crossover as an independent country. if the open airlines as an out civil resume flies to michaela, the northern to gray region from wednesday, representatives from the theo, p and government visited the rebel held area on monday. and since ive ah more missiles in depth in ukraine, russian military personnel killed the course. the border president vladimir putin says he's prepared to negotiate and accuses ukraine of refusing to well,

what are the chances of a negotiated settlement of the war? this is ah hello, welcome to the program i'm in bronco and the war in ukraine is the worst military conflict in europe since the 2nd world war. there is no official death, but in the 10 months of fighting that been tens of thousands of military and civilian casualties. and millions of people have fled the homes, all wars, and eventually some in outright victory and defeat. others around the negotiating table, ukraine's president vladimir lensky is reportedly working on a peace plan to be enveloped. in february rushes, president vladimir putin says he's open to discussions to end the war and blames his opponents for refusing to negotiate. was

a shame. so i believe we are acting in the right direction where defending our national interests, the interest of our citizens, our people, i reiterate, we don't have any other choices, but to protect our citizens. however, we are prepared to negotiate some acceptable outcomes with all the participants of this process, but it's their business. it's not as to refuse talks, it's them you president zalinski. i says that putin's apparent willingness to negotiate is a delay tactic off to russia, suffered major setbacks on the battlefield. houses. you need me to little, only a few days of this year left. we must be aware that our enemy will try to make this time dark as difficult for us. russia has lost everything it could this year, but it is trying to compensate for its losses with the gloating of its propagandists after the missiles strikes on our country. on our energy sector, i know the doctors will not prevent us from bringing the invaders to their new defeats, but we must be ready for any scenario. ah,

that's bringing our guests upon falcon. howard is a defense and military analyst. he joins us a, by skype from moscow. hannah celeste is the security studies program director, the think tank ukrainian prism. she joins us from odessa and chris we for is the c o at micro advisory, a consultancy focused on russia and eurasia. he joins us from london, a warm welcome to you all at lights begin in moscow with pavel falcon, how're up? quite predictably, the west and ukraine have rejected this idea of any kind of peace talks, though, whilst there is still a war in ukraine on ukraine. some would say, going on, is president vladimir putin serious about these talks? i won't president fortune has recently be sent, expressing his desire to find a negotiated conclusion to this conference, even called it a war which she previously didn't. russian diplomats are more of a saying the same. and so it seems that the crown one really wants to have some

kind of conclusion. oh and, and if we're still at these, but of course on their own terms of there have also been other expressions and of coming from moscow to day. there's an article published in the government, refused to go set up by a former president, meets human village if was dallas to right now. and the official in the security council of the russian federation, who says that no beauty, no negotiations with the ukrainians or rushes. glad to bounce on the brink of a total nuclear war until the west accepts russian conditions on giving it full security guarantees. i. so i mean there with the wearable mcveigh dufus wearing the bad policeman apparently put in the good policeman. but that boy, yes, the russia once ah pause in the fighting to freeze the situation more or less

as it is right now. it's understood in moscow that in the, in key a friend in the west that's not really right now accepted in the worst. they are different opinions, though, basically there's about backing up the ukrainian. so that means mosque, or we most likely putting more military pressure on ukraine to facilitate ah, kind of agreement on basically status quo and freezing the status quo morrow. anna celeste in odessa, what do you make of what possible? falcon harris has said, there is this idea that putin might be ready for peace talks. you believe vladimir putin, you know, to be ready for the top, doesn't need to be ready for withdraw. well, or for the peace or the end of the conflict? because negotiation, any type of negotiation, that is just the instrument. the question is what you want to discuss during the

initiation, mr. put in a definite no radical the certain size of the she shall, but what he would like to negotiate there. first of all, it is definitely why does 2 rounds of the play where the spark of its national interest or any teach, and we hear it. not only did your boss from mr. so south. and the fact is, you know, the need speak louder than the word at the same day when you said both negotiation is worth the extreme challenge of your full d t. the new deliberate to follow the with that an 80 or was it while you're speaking about negotiation as a way for keith? no, no tries to destroy the teeth that you just war and up when you are not bringing additional wire from. the last we the additional weapon coming to all what are train as especially in the region region, the fighting just suffice places the we found the s and how would you need

negotiation politically for your friends to lands us. but the tax you tell each you as part of the previous 5, because you need additional our me files that you like. now we want to keep and the training of the will more than like personal the. and they'll also they'll, when to uniform from think what the washing versus if you're lot to be prepared in our personal. so here need be, oh, it's called operational pro, but not the sci fi or the pcp. she but hannah, you make an interesting point. then i'll bring it up with chris and with poverty in just a minute. i'd like to ask you, you're talking about the idea that there are praising these tensions and then going to negotiate towards, but you'll talk so about ukrainian serenity. all of these issues can only be negotiated once the. once the 2 people sit round a table, you're not even getting to that stage yet. you're already putting up barriers. why

don't you just start talking? why doesn't the ukrainian president and the russian president basically start talking 1st of all, let's not minutes late because the right hand side was ready for shot of the day, one not speaking above the last night here. negotiations with the last negotiation between ukrainian or russian president happened in december 2019 aware in ferry. they agreed that all monsters rather will leave and focus then man, russian, president of the project of any type of negotiation. tell him it's not going to talk with your prayer. so while we're here in february with the roles of invasion, we had ukrainian russian negotiations in baler is one of the results. nothing because even when russia to lose what they come, words are they want the only or what if you go, it is the fact that in the nation will cranium. who because they were talking about our language, both our story,

both or in policy choices there. we're speaking about education, brain young people, and that is the word more from some marginal that is the worst of the political leaders of the country. you know, now often i didn't change. that's why when the president, president, the thing about me, she should, he is not rejecting negotiations on the instrument or final agreement, but he's raising the questions about what we are going to need to she if we have carmen. and it's saying that what you like about some dentist cation of ukraine, you understand the limit lation is for searching p, chris, i will come to you just a 2nd, but i'd like puzzles, reaction to the i mean, the bombings and negotiations, sometimes gum hand in hand. about just the 50 years, the girl, there were the her christmas bombings of north vietnam by the americans ordered

by president richard nixon. to facilitate peace talks in paris, an won't be stalks as soon be a resume there. and the a piece of agreement was found though, of course, in the end it ended with the naughty of them. he's taking over se, ma'am, but anyways, so this is not the bombings and piece talks often come together. and i believe that right now, rush and long range of vaccine to ukraine. have also the prime objective of actually forcing ukrainians to the negotiating table that are without maybe break conditions. but that's right. and the rat, russia would want, ah, sovereignty most likely was worse, would be good for russian to get sovereignty, say are bringing agreeing to, sorry, a seed sovereignty over crimea or something. but again, that's understood that that's not happening, but

a long term pause in the fighting a pause in the fighting a would be important right now for russia, and that's most likely what they kind of realize. the bo objective that moscow sees right now achievable. chris are in london and chris europe, a consultancy this focused on russia in you raise an extensive experience in the region. here we're looking at a situation where the ukranian morale is higher. civil society is backing a lot of the re, cranium military. they're in a good position. they about to get the patriot defensive missile system from the u . s. as part of this one point, i think $7000000000.00 aid package that they're going to get the ukrainians are in a very good position in moscow, wants to pause in the fighting to be able to go to the negotiating table. is there any way that these 2 sides can meet when ukraine doesn't quite have the upper hand,

but certainly in a better position? yeah, i think, you know, just reflecting what was previous speakers said the position of russia appears to be one of the backs. amazing pressure, not only on your praying with this strike subsidy and infrastructure and. busy people but the putting pressure also on, on ukraine, supporters on europe for example, checks her. and of course, i think that the timing therefore is, you know, the incident that we are moving into the kind of more the culture part of winter where energy will be much bigger issue potentially still, you know, energy costs centered is disruption. so i think, you know, for russia, this is the best time to both maximize pressure on ukraine and maximize pressure, perhaps on europe, or at least kind of take advantage of the maximal pressure on europe,

the energy says. and then at the same time, you know, put on the table, the possibility or the openness for talk. so i think the timing is to do with, you know, the weather, the energy fact there. and also i think the fact that, you know, ukraine is now greed this, a very substantial deal with us is just bench, patrick missiles and other technology. so again, the situation militarily might be quite different than the spring are after spring and russia maybe more vulnerable. so this is for sure, the best time for russia to both increased pressure as well as offer the possibility of talks and also in terms of the economy. we are moving into a different phase in the economy in russia or d, debilitating phase. 2022, it was more about crisis management, but russia has made a great deal of money. a lot of money this year. trade surface will be close to

$300000000.00. so the national welfare. busy and the other financial reserves are site, but that is going to change. it's already changing the, the ban on crude imports to europe, the ban on the pro products coming in february. and they much lower volume of gas exports in to europe. that means russia will earn a lot less in 2023. and as we go forward, of course, you know that, that, that will have more of a damaging impact and will reduce fresh financial reserve. so yeah, i think all of these things combined as to why we're now hearing this possibility of, of talks at this stage rush is position may we can, as we go forward, certainly not. you cannot make it because of the accumulation of sanctions impact. paul, the what do you think russia's position is weak and therefore it needs to come to the negotiating table? is that accurate assessment for you? all horse issue on is that russians ok. the immersion military strong,

the russian defense industry is producing more weapons. western sanctions are not working, but of course it's well understood, but there are serious problems. are there in the back of france, it's more or less they'll make them get burse. and so russia anyways needs pause to rearm to actually consolidate it's very thorough. grabs on fire, prepare for possible further conflicts in the future. so that would be a preferable result. yes, a offering a talk says good. if it doesn't work well, then there's going to be military pressure coming at squall. swagway. everyone is

preparing bracy for the acceleration of the fighting in on the battlefield. in may be rather soon and january say a when the cold weather freezes the dirt finally. and both sides can go mo bile, which they cannot yet right now. because though it's very wash winter in moscow, their own, they are in the south of ukraine. it's not. but it will be, and most likely, both sides military looking forward for decisive crash. where russia hopes to stop and ukrainian offensive and reverse it and has reserves for that. so it's most likely seen that 1st there's going to be increased fighting. and then as a result of that fight, the may be both sides will agree to negotiate some kind of stop for hannah

lester. president lament zalinski is talking about this piece. plan the once a unveil in february. this bill plenty of time between now and february to finalize up his mind. but what would you like to see in that plan? you know, the person philanthropy over the years that you a yes about what he inside your and she's latest features. i'm definitely, there are sick bases restoration of the pregnancy tomorrow in cherokee and serenity is b on there is something that we are not ready to discuss. what dr. any form of discussing how to stay without your hands up to your right. yes. you are. would like to have all the on party. the 2nd is a definite you sit on guarantees for the finance security. are something not like you, the best memorandum that was signed by when rejected our nuclear weapons. but it is something that can lead man to the further possible attacks from the washington ration because unfortunately, currently there in your praying that in several years, russia will probably defeat that. it can piece,

doesn't matter how the fighting is happening. now, we are picking up. 8 the coalition of friends and partner's life can be with us. in this case, we think about the possible control over the russian military fear problem and not the total emily to revision of some dream about. but it needs the maybe the militarization, all the ally on cranium borders are we also seek above the record struction plan? that's also the big question. will be wreck and trust in the country that is deployed now by russian. and why are the western governments you pay for the why we have a lot of the russian money being proved in different countries. so that is definitely quite a. * complex plan that has both the security for the military, but also the social humanitarian for involves the record structure of the country as a ball to the treat you know, or you can call it in any different way. but the ball just because there are so

many military and the war 5, the need to, during the 5 months, it's an unfortunate great coverage. and we find you more and more cases of the graves of the civilian feelings and so on that you praying a nation is really calling for the justice. that's why we on the sound, the fall of the peace plan also will be any type or the justice 1st would be the reconciliation committee or the treat, you know, sorry, how do we all running our time? and i'd like to, i would like to put the points that you've made to chris. busy we for chris, we're looking at 2 very stark positions here, 2 very, 2 positions so far apart from each other. that negotiated settlement seems highly unlikely. is there any room for maneuver the you can see, i think in terms of the position stated by both sides, then you'd have to say no. the positions are just solar opposites from each other. and, you know, at the very minimum, you're talk,

what years and years and years of negotiations, i think realistically enough, domestically what people are hoping for is simply a frozen conflict. a cessation of the fighting where, where, where, where the missiles are no longer flying. and people are no longer dying. that is, i think, the most realistic kind of level of optimism at this point, nuts you know, what type of piece feel like the finally negotiated. because that just seems so far away really there's, there's that there's, there's no level of optimism the both sides could come together based on where they are right now. we would require leadership change in russia for sure, but many, many years. so i think at this stage what we're, what we're looking for, and maybe what must was hoping for is the terms of some sort of a ceasefire. where the political process content starts and last for years. but a ceasefire would be important for russia because it would probably end the momentum towards new sanctions. if there was a cease fire. and remember,

a lot of the most damaging sanctions against russia are voluntary, rather than legislative. that it was companies that have on their own initiative, decided not to by russia not to work with russia, not to be in russia are still leaving. so i think a cease fire then you might must go may, i hope that those sanctions momentum and some of the voluntary sanctions will be ease and companies will be under less pressure to leave. so i think it's all about a ceasefire. it's not about the stock stage that's just too far to distance and to difficult puzzle in moscow. would moscow consider a ceasefire as a guest in london has just said we didn't consider that as a victory. oh, not a lift. when mean anything that happens? the cremeans going to spin as victory. that's not the problem by the ceasefire is lakresha right now needs based as i say on more or less the wine of control of freezing of the situation and details of who gets what are negotiable.

but that, that is the baseline. and yes, that was most likely moscow was one, but i don't right now see this happening immediately. i believe that 1st is going to be decided on the battlefield and most likely during a short but maybe a vicious winter campaign because in the west, people in the winter go to winter quarters. you don't 5 minutes treason and russia and ukraine. they do. because then the dirt freezers and you can move through fields and they're crowed. so it's everything frozen as solid. and that's where i'm most likely both sides military military commands. and both sides are gearing up for a very serious crash in this coming made the january, february of which will made the side. will there be

a ceasefire on which lines of control this is fires burned the hat, sorry pamela hava. we are running out of time, and i do want to come to hannah as well. hannah, you've heard, well, publish a said the is going to be way more fighting before any kind of sci fi comes into place. but is this, i see spy, the best you can know for now, ukraine is not searching for the east fire. i'll be here just to see fire. we understand that our armed forces, the best security guarantees, but at the same time referring to your frame, the so we sat about to be 2 sides positions or 2 athenians. there are no opinions, it's not the commercial dispute. we have the victim and we have an aggressive when you have a killer or a rate this and the victim, you're not speaking about 2 positions, you're speaking about who should be punished and which way you're not negotiating about these. you're protecting and defending thought. think about the spunk bit from the side and be safe. it's not to be easier to think about. what's your praying and sites you did he or to his curse. we leave her both august. the. there

is plenty of fighting to come. that's what we're hearing. but winter is coming, and this is a conflict that can be fought in winter by to size up significant experience in all of this. so a sci fi seems completely unlikely. do you still believe that's the most likely outcome after hearing? not to guess, it's the only outcome where there can be any level of optimism. i mean, he's talks and find a peace agreement. i think it's just so far distant, it's when you work, even considering at this point. but as a 1st stage, there of course has to be cease fire. whether or not that can be agreed before an escalation sizing. well, we have to wait to see simply don't know. but i do believe that this is one of the kind of objectives of. busy say the kremlin energy strategy, the fact that you know it has europe under a lot of energy pressure coming into winter. i think the hope from moscow is not present. lensky will agree to sit down or to, to a cease fire,

but the perhaps pressure from europe, or pressure from other countries to support your brain, right? that pressure may then change the equation and lead to a piece. i see fire. so i think you said to be clear, i think it is the only a cease fire is the only level of optimism that anybody can realistically hope for . the question is whether that can come before an escalation and slicing or not. we simply don't know what we know. moscow is is i think that's what mosque is. preference would be at this stage, but the previous speaker say it's just not clear at all. i want to thank all our gas apples, hogan our honda, celeste and chris. we thought, and i want to thank you as well for watching. now you can see the program anytime by visiting our website out there a dot com and for further discussion, go to a facebook page at facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. and you can also join the conversation on twitter

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