jockeys who are controlled by their owners right alongside them during the race. it's racing in the 21st century, and it's bringing in the tourists. are that we have seen a large number of fever fans come in here to enjoy the root it we're doing our bathroom solution for through visions and culture. there are $28.00 trophies at stake and the top rose over a $1000000.00 on a golden sword. ah hello, i am fully battle in doha with a look at our mean stories on al jazeera, former pope benedict. the 16th has died at the age of $95.00. he stepped down in 2014, after struggling with ill health, becoming the 1st pontiff in 600 years to resign. his body will be taken to saint peter's basilica. our way will lie in state from monday. poke francis will lead the

funeral proceedings for his predecessor in saint peter's square on thursday or attributes to benedict are coming in from all over the world. the former pope was born in germany. the german chancellor olaf shore says the world has lost a formative figure of the catholic church. italy's prime minister, georgia maloney remembered benedict as a giant of faith and reason, french president emanuel my call hailed him for his work towards a more brotherly world. and britons by minister wishes to knock said he is saddened by the death of a great theology and also in the news. the palestinian authority has welcomed her vote at the united nations asking for the opinion of the international court of justice on israel's occupation. the un wants the to understand what effect dig decades of violence have had on the palestinian people's right to self determination. kristin salome has more from the united nations in new york. the u. n. is asking the international court of justice to issue an advisory opinion on

what it refers to as israel's prolonged occupation settlement and annexation of palestinian territory. the general assembly made the request in a resolution citing generations of palestinians living under oppressive military occupation. and without some basic human rights, the world health organization is urging china to share more information on a virgin covered 19 cases. the agency wants chinese official supervisor, real time data and tracking of any potential new variance. the move comes i made growing concerned about the transparency of beijing's official figures. while chinese president, she g paying spoke about the outbreak during his new year's address. florida 3 has moved from hong kong surgeon, being talked about how 2022 was an unprecedented year. but he also mentioned that china has beaten an unprecedented challenge. and he said the epidemic control

had reached a new stage. the measures that the government had taken in 2022 were optimized and adjusted. he talked about the economy and said it's resilient. he said, the long term fundamentals remain unchanged. south korea says the nor fast fired 3 ballistic missiles towards the see east of the korean peninsula. it's the latest in a record number of missile tests carried out by p on young this year. for got it on the reserve by 7 north korea. ballistic missile launches a grave provocation that undermines peace, instability on the korean peninsula, as well as the international community. also, it's a clear violation of the un security council resolution. thus we urge them to stop immediately. meanwhile, japan is looking to develop missiles with a range of up to 3000 kilometers. the planned weapons would be able to reach any part of north korea. local media is reporting that japan aims to deploy the missiles in the 20 thirty's. when is when an opposition figure one wydell has

criticized the decision to dissolve his interim government. nearly 50 countries had recognized him as the legitimate leader of venezuela. that opposition party say he failed to asked president nicholas maduro. outgoing brazilian president j the ball to narrow has flown to the united states less than 2 days before his left. his rival is due to take office. alton, our last to loose is nasty and rude. a silver in a presidential run off last month. protesters in bolivia have said cars on fire and blocked roads following the arrests of a prominent opposition leader. police fire tear gas to disperse the crowds in santa cruz. the protests were part of a 24 hour strike launched after the regions governor luis. fernando camacho was detained on thursday and the new years already being welcomed in as 2023 drawers in some parts of the world. this was the fireworks display in oakland . you zealand as the clock struck midnight, but it was the line island spot of kerry bath that were 1st to enter the new year.

thanks for watching archers here. ah. hi, i'm steve clements and i have a question with neither side. willing to negotiate is the ukraine war becoming a forever war? let's get to the bottom line. ah. after 10 months of fighting, the ukraine war has settled into a scary cycle. any ukrainian advance on russian forces in the east is almost immediately followed by russian drone strikes on ukrainian infrastructure in the west. so besides the death and the destruction and displacement of people, folks are also suffering and freezing temperatures. with no electricity. ukraine insist that the war is not over until the very last russian soldier leaves its

territory. moscow can afford to wait it out because the fighting is on its soil and western sanctions haven't crippled the economy. sure, the conflict is coming home for russians as they hear horror stories from their own young, mobilize mostly male population on the front lines, but the war machine just rages on. meanwhile, u. s. president joe biden has been able to spend an average of $7000000000.00 per month on the ukraine war. but now that the republicans control congress, can he keep up the pace next year? or will ukraine soon have to make tough compromises and sit down at the negotiating table. today we're taking a look at the next phase of the war with steven wall, professor of international relations at harvard university and author of the hell of good intentions. american foreign policy lead and the decline of u. s. primacy. steve, it's so great to be with you. again, this is always a tough discussion. i want to tell people, none of us take what's going on lightly. ah, but i'm very happy to be talking to dr. walt to day about what history tells us at moments like this. what, what should we be thinking about that maybe we're afraid to talk about about where

the ukraine is. a war is going, steve. well, i think the probably the scariest prospect for most of us is that you won't get the site kind of decisive hollywood ending, but many people would like to see here. i think most of us would like to see where you get sort of decisive humiliating defeat of russia. the united states and its allies can claim, you know, great foreign policy victory, the ukrainians, get all of their territory back. and russia is a chassis and in the future by this that's, i think, what many people would like to see? and the problem is that while that is, i guess, still a remote possibility is by no means the most likely possibility. i think the most likely possibility is that if we have this conversation a year from now, russia is still controlling a substantial amount of ukrainian territory. vladimir putin is still in power in moscow, and ukraine has suffered another years worth of damage. that's not going to look

like such a happy story, but it's precisely in situations like that that each side has to start rethinking what it's war aims are, as far as asking whether there is some sort of political compromise that neither one is necessarily going to like very much, but better than allowing the war to continue forever. war president biden has been very hesitant to ask ukraine to begin any sort of real negotiations process, but both around the president, but also very top tier national security voices are beginning to say we need another track. one of them is henry kissinger and henry kissinger in the spectator, wrote, the time is approaching to build on the strategic changes which have already been accomplished and to integrate them into a new structure towards achieving peace through negotiation. a representative of president vladimir zaleski was very quick to respond. he says, all supporters of simple solutions should remember the obvious. any agreement with

the devil, a bad piece at the expense of your in territories will be a victory for potent and a recipe for success. for autocrats around the world and that was ukrainian presidential aid mikaela patrol yak. well i think that frames pretty well, you know, 2 dimensions in the debate. and i guess one of the questions i have for you, steven is america and nato. so wrapped up in this process now that we can't be the party that begins talking about how to seek a compromise or negotiated are, we still stuck on one side of this that we're no longer able to see the other side . i don't think that's quite true. it's true that the united states may not be the best honest broker here, given that we're all in on, on one particular side. and there may have to be 3rd parties that help sort of smooth the beginnings of this discussion. i might add that the

a president soleski is right. this is not going to be an easy negotiation by any means. and the obstacles to any kind of political settlement are formidable in people who talk about, you know, going to p stocks and reaching a solution very quickly. i think have not thought to clearly just how difficult this is going to be. ukraine has every reason to want some kind of assurances that this isn't going to happen again. russia will undoubtedly have its own desires for certain assurances so that the things that helped lead it to start the war in the 1st place are alleviated. and none of these are going to be easy to work out at all, so i wouldn't be naive about it. but nonetheless, the thing that's going to drive, i think, consideration of some form of negotiated settlement is the difficulty that both sides are going to have in achieving any kind of decisive breakthrough on the ground. it's quite clear that the initial russian war plan was badly designed,

their forces mismanage, that they weren't prepared. they made miscalculation after miscalculation, but at this point, there are war effort does appear to be improving slightly. they have defensible positions that are going to be hard for the ukrainians to tackle. it's going to be increasingly hard for either side, i think to make really decisive gains. and yet the pain will continue. and it's a point like that. sometimes it's called a hurting stalemate, that then you get people to say, well, ok, we're not going to get everything we might want. what can we get that we might be able to live with? i don't think we're there yet by the way. but that's, i think we're, this is ultimately going and up. one of the questions i have is, how much pain are the russians feeling from this? and recently i met with gentlemen, it was the former chief of staff of the german defense ministry is now working for the minute unit security conference. and he's very adamant that ukraine will win

and will prevail. in this he said that the russian soldiers are untrained, unprepared. they are, while we're seeing pictures of ukrainians. you know, freezing in these, in these terrible temperatures because of hit infrastructure. he said the moment, ah, the russian soldiers get wet or their uniforms aren't, aren't managed properly. they will freeze in these temperatures because they're untrained to know what to do. and i'm just interested at some certain levels at whether the feedback coming back into russia with the mobilization of so many of its young men and the battlefield scenes on the russian side, which are pretty horrific. whether or not from your experience that matters in a place like russia, that even if it's not a democracy in the way, you and i look at it, a lot of russians still think they are a democracy. right? there is no question that the russian soldiers have suffered enormously and we're not particularly well prepared for this. again,

there are some indications that they're getting their act together to some degree. one of the things, it's very frustrating and trying to figure out where we are in this particular conflict, is it, it's hard to know what the relative balances on either side. i think we tend to get more upbeat reports from what's happening on the ukrainian side. it's hard to get numbers on exactly what ukrainian losses have been. we hear a lot about how badly the russians are suffering. we don't hear as much about what's happening on ukrainian side, apart from the civilian suffering that ukraine is going through. and that makes it really hard to know exactly what the balance of forces likely to be. also worth remembering, rushes got 3 times the population. pollutants mobile is ation. has brought 300000 more soldiers into the, into the meat grinder. how well prepared they're going to be, how well they'll be able to fight, remains to be seen. it seems to me. but again, the russian at this point are fighting on the defensive and they have devoted an

enormous amount of effort over the last few months to building defensive positions in some key areas. whether that will be enough. again, we don't know yet. it would be in some respect what all of us hope for it that turns out not to be effective. what i don't think any of this is going to do though, is cause a you fundamental rethinking in moscow anytime soon you're not going to see it seems to me a popular uprising. i think the combination of russian propaganda and the security forces around pollutant are going to be able to keep the lid on this. so even though it's not particularly popular, even though the conduct of the war, it gets lots of criticism in the russian blogosphere as well and on email and things like that. i don't think that's going to lead to the kind of political change in russia that will cause an immediate, as i said, hollywood ending to this particular conflict. and i, i said,

take no pleasure whatsoever in saying that, let me put up some figures of what u. s. a to ukraine is amounting to be in 2022 alone. we have contributed about $68000000000.00. president biden has now requested an additional $37700000000.00, and that would bring the total if approved up to about 800105 1000000000. it's running about $7000000000.00 a month to, to support ukraine. and as we said, congress is going to be, have a new dimension here shortly in a couple of weeks, and the republicans will be controlling it now to be clear to our friends, republicans are not anti supporting ukraine. some republicans are some democrats are, but this may become more of an issue about whether or not there is a blank check to supporting ukraine. and i'm wondering whether you see where you see that going in terms of pressure. you've advocated that maybe we need another course, maybe we need to find a way towards the negotiated outcome of this given the realities. but does that

pressure on the financial side help? well, i don't think there's going to, you're going to see a congressionally mandated cut off anytime soon. i think congress will give the, by the administration wants at least for the next next few months. so i don't think that's going to be an issue. i do worry about the fact that even with the best will in the world, it may be somewhat more difficult for the west to include the united states to provide the levels of support that they've been able to sustain up until now. and that's in part because we've simply drawn down a lot of our own ammunition stocks to provide it to the ukrainians. so even if we want to keep supporting them at the level we have that may be hard to do it sort of the military equivalent of a supply chain problem. but the thing that i think, worries me the most, is that we still don't have a completely effective counter and may never get one to the attacks. the russians have been making on ukraine civilian infrastructure and especially it's power grid

that kind of damage. if it eventually were to bring down the ukrainian power grid is a true catastrophe. and again, it's not just undermining ukrainian morale at that point. you really have a situation where, you know, millions of ukrainians might end up having to leave the country, which is already an issue for them. so there are, there are things that could happen in the next few months. again, i hope they do not, which worry me greatly and are somewhat independent of the billions of dollars up or down that the united states is able to provide both your article that appeared recently in foreign policy magazine. i highly recommended people to call the perpetually irrational ukraine debate, but also henry kissinger's article in the spectator. both out very recently, kind of raise this broad issue that, that where we're going right now isn't going to work. and to kissinger's point, he said in world war one, which was a fight about a lot of things, a fight about morality, a fight about, you know,

alliances essentially the united states at that moment and world war on eventually became someone who could come in and come in from the the side and begin trying to do something different. is there anywhere i know you're famous in the air of israel? it's ok. so is there an off flow out there? you can't use also anymore because they're now in, in nato, i guess. but i mean, is there a force out there that could come by way and begin becoming part of the scene, set the stable, set the dinner, bring the parties together and begin talking about potential alternative outcomes. you know, i don't think so when the war initially broke out, i thought that the country that might be able to perform a role like that was actually china that it had influence with russia. it had a reasonably good standing with ukrainians. it wasn't actively involved in the fight and the pain could represent himself as an independent mediator, just trying to bring peace and scores,

some great diplomatic points. if he were able to pull that off. i think the chinese response, which has been to that have tacitly lean in support of the russians, has now remove them from that role and they're not really interested in, in plainness. i don't think there is a 3rd party now that can essentially come in, grab each side by the scruff of the neck and say ok, you're going to make a deal. it's too politically fraught for the biden administration to try and play that role. i don't think turkey, although it's played a mediating role on some minor issues connected with the conflict. but it's not in a position, doesn't have the leverage to produce the kind of deal. and ultimately this will come down to the 2 sides deciding that they are better off reaching some kind of an agreement. i don't know what form that agreement would take. and that will, as i said earlier, involve an awful lot of complex bargaining over where lines are going to be drawn. the repack creation of prisoners reconstruction aid for ukraine,

the whole issue of ukrainian neutrality, which is one of the reasons the war started assurances from the russian side. they're not simply going to rearm and start this up again a few years down the road, et cetera. there's an enormous number of issues that would have to be thrashed out here. and perhaps the best we can hope for is a, a genuine armistice that doesn't necessarily end the quote unquote conflict, but puts each side in a position where they don't want to resume things. a number of people. i think gideon rockman, in the financial times have recently raised the korea example. there's still no peace treaty ending the korean war. fought for 3 years from 1950 to 1953. but we have had an armistice that has held ever since then and something like that, but fashioned appropriately for the specific circumstances of ukraine might be where we end up here. and of course, the korean war and part depends upon the trigger of us soldiers deployed their,

in part including, you know, the likelihood of a nuclear potential, you know, options can there. so as a sort of scary scenario to begin thinking about. but i think on another side of it, i've been trying to ask myself, you know, for the united states and nato, and i've been around a lot of officials recently who are just absolutely adamant that russia can not be given another permission slip as some people said it was given after the invasion annexation of crimea, that it's, expansion activities are, are one, you know, and troubling in the, in parts of eastern europe was something that needed to signal back. otherwise, if you don't respond, then this problem will become a larger one. do you think there's logic in that, in that argument? i understand the logic, but i'm not persuaded by it. the idea is that if somehow russia gets anything out of this, you know, even permanent control of crimea,

that we've somehow rewarded regression. we've somehow given them a free pass, and i think if you look at the damage that's been done to russian but done to the russian military, it's quite clear that this is a strategic defeat for russia. even if they extract some kind of pyrrhic victory in some kind of final settlement. but if you just consider what this is done to the russian economy, what it's done to the russian military, what it's done to russia's global reputation, europe permanently winning itself off of russia, oil and gas. the russia being largely cut off from the most sophisticated forms of western technology are forced to smuggle them in. this is going to have long term negative consequences for russia. in other words, they're paying an enormous price for what the decision bladder report made. so even if they were to extract some set of concessions at the end, preserves some control of crimea or other parts of what was originally ukrainian

territory. again, not something i would like to see happen, but if that were to happen, they have paid an enormous price for it and i don't think putting would be eager at any point in what's left of his life. to replay this kind of experiment again somewhere else. the international community has, in fact, taught the lesson that aggression really does get penalized, that it really doesn't pay. even if again, there's some kind of compromise deal that ends the war. you and i have discussed china before, and china as a much more serious geo strategic challenge to the united states and allies. what do you think china is learning from this lesson? are they seeing in america and a nato that are willing to engage more deeply than they had, or they seeing us trapped in a strategic, you know, pit that we can't extract ourselves from? i'm sure there are a range of chinese interpretations of what's going on here,

but i think there are several lessons they ought to be drawing. one is that even, you know, sophisticated or well prepared, military sometimes grew up. and in fact, a elaborate military plans don't always go the way you expect them to. so that suggest a conventional military assault on taiwan, which would be difficult in the best of circumstances, is something they ought to really not consider. or at least not assume would go smoothly. last lesson number one less. number 2 is the one you alluded to that in fact, the international community tends to respond very vigorously to acts of unprovoked aggression. and the chinese assault on taiwan would be seen in that light. so the assumption that there would be disarray that america's asian partners would not know how to respond idea that nato would not react perhaps even in an asian context . all of those things are, are things that i think the chinese would not. we should take these lessons. the

chinese should observe from this. there was more life left in the western alliance than they may have believed. however, that the 3rd part of this is that the longer this war goes on, the better it probably is for china. in a huge distraction, it takes enormous amount of bandwidth is consuming american resources and western resources that could be used for other purposes. so in a chinese contact in some out, and one finally, it's making russia more dependent upon china and ultimately a more compliant ally. so if you are looking for a grand strategic imperative to try and bring the ward to an end sooner rather than later. it's also so that the united states can focus on what is the longer geo strategic challenge, which is china and not russia. now, recently, the bi interviewed the incoming chair, the house congress and energy committee. cathy morris rogers and i asked her about

where her support for ukraine was and how much were hurt own constituents willing to tolerate high prices, shortages, etc, down the road potentially related to the crisis. and her response was, you know, my people really don't want to see prices continue to go up. inflation is really hurting them. and she still, of course, sympathetic you know that on the ukraine front, but it raises syncing question of how the, what the future is going to look like we're seeing, you know, a global food security crisis. we're seeing energy weaponized, we're seeing authoritarianism, popular, you know, populism, etc. in reaction to some of these, how messy a year or a couple of years, do you see a head as a result of a crisis like this one? very, you know, as you know, they've been, since there's been some good news on the inflation front at least here in the united states, less so in other parts of the world. so that's something we may hope you know, continues. but i think you've put your finger on what is it a real problem?

now, if we do end up with a stalemate in ukraine, and that is, it's one thing to get people in other countries to make sacrifices in the short term. if they think those sacrifices are going to pay off, it's much harder to get people to continue to make the same sacrifices when it appears to be kind of open ended, that this is not going to get resolved any time soon. are we going to have to do this for years to 3 years, 4 years? will you? and i saw the same problem with the so called forever wars in afghanistan and iraq, even when there's public support initially for them. if you don't have the prospect of success down the road, it's much harder to get people to continue to pony up and then it makes it even worse. of course, if conditions at home become more difficult, i think this is something actually the ukrainian government is well aware of, which is one of the reasons they have been trying to tout recent military successes . and i think are hoping for more because the more they can demonstrate that,

you know, will meant them is on their side. and this isn't going to take forever. the more likely western support is to be sustained. the difficulty is, i think the military challenge for them is actually going to get harder, not easier in the future. and then the domestic considerations that you just raised are going to kick in more powerfully. well, steven wall, harvard university professor of international relations. thank you for your candor . thanks so much for being with us today. great talking with you as always do. so what's the bottom line ending? the war in ukraine is a tough decision for the western allies. they feel that they didn't do enough in 2014 when russia annexed crimea. and that kind of gave russian president vladimir putin a permission slip in my view, to try to roll over the rest of the country. now the u. s. in the other nato nations have made ukraine, which was not an ally, and that has to be noted, be defining challenge for themselves. that means their own self image and their own sense of security is also wrapped up in the fate of ukraine. but how long will americans accept to pump money and weapons into this cause?

if it becomes a forever war, american and european support is bound to whither? so what should ukraine do? it's damned if it compromises and damned if it doesn't. and both options have very tragic consequences. so as we head into a new year, we have nothing to look forward to, but a slow slog of back and forth victories and tragedies in freezing temperature. sadly, this war seems nowhere near to an end. and that's the bottom line, ah, trust is fundamentally to all our relationships. we trust banks without money, doctors, without really personal information. what happens to trust in a world driven by algorithms as more and more decisions are made for us by these complex pieces of code? the question that comes up is inevitable. we can we trust algorithms in the 1st over 5 part series ali,

re questions the neutrality of digital deductions. trust me, i'm an algorithm on a just 0. a lot of the stories that we cover a high, the complex, so it's very important that we make them as understandable as we can do as many people as possible no matter how much they know about a given crisis or issue with the smell of death is overpowering as al jazeera correspondence, that's what we strive to do. lou lou again, i'm fully back to boeing. doha, with the headlines on al jazeera, former pope benedict. the 16th has died at the age of $95.00. he stepped down in 2013, after struggling with ill health. his body will be taken to saint peter's basilica where it will lie in state from monday. o francis will lead the funeral proceedings for his predecessor in.