is african stories from african filmmakers can public private partnerships. so some of the world's most pressing challenges when government business and civil society needed me for the world economic forum, clinical host, the all africa musical was a celebration of talent and creativity from corner of the african continent. january analogy, sierra ah hello. i'm darren jordan in dough with a quick reminder, the top stories here on al jazeera explosions of shaken ukraine's capital less than an hour into the new year. they follow a barrage of miss ald strikes by russia targeting the capital key and other cities . the 1st blast of 2023 hit 2 districts. when the cranes presidents as russia will not be forgiven. you get a several waves of miss all attacks on new year's eve,

missiles against people, the non humans did it. a non humans will lose you and i know it terrace can not change it or easter be carried out such attacks. and at christmas now at new year they call themselves christians. they are very proud of their orthodoxy, but they are following the devil, or no one will ever forgive you for the terrace. no one in the world will forgive you for this. ukraine will never forgive, and you yourself will not forgive putin everything he will destroy and every one he will kill. leaders around the world are paying tributes. a former pope benedict the 16th there was died at the age of 90. 5 benedict led the catholic church for just under 8 years. he stepped down in 2013 because of ill health. his successor pope francis said it was a gift to the worse. if i lose empty laser quest a moment. at this moment, our thoughts go to our dearest hope, benedict, the 16th,

who left us this morning. it is with emotion that we remember this person so noble, so kind of young and we feel in our heart such gratitude, gratitude to god for having gifted him to the church and the world. gratitude to him all the good he has accomplished. and especially for his witness of faith and prayer, especially in these last years of his retired life is only god knows the value and strength of his intercession of his sacrifices offered the good of the church. as a 2nd day of protests in bolivia, santa cruz region, after the arrest of a right wing opposition leader police out in force. after friday's bon and confrontations with supporters of jail, governor des, finance camacho, he denies accusations of leading a coo during protest in 2019 at force. then president morales from power north korea's leader is promising an exponential increase in the production of nuclear weapons state me to say kim jong, who has all the new intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear capability. he

says he wants the arsenal to out plus us and south korean forces. kim's comments came on the same day of young, announced the test of multiple rocket launcher. president. teaching ping says china is heading into a new phase of the pandemic of the most. cobit 19 restrictions when lifted is call for unity in a televised, new year's address. beijing handling of the current surgeon current of virus cases as prompted criticism at home and concern abroad jingle, general, georgia, the new iep with extraordinary efforts, we prevailed over unprecedented difficulties and challenges, and it's not been an easy journey for anyone. we have now entered a new phase of cooper response. we're tough challenges remain. calendars become the latest country to impose cobra 19 checks on travelers from china. from john or the 5th, they'll have to show a negative p c r test. before departure. canada joins a growing list of countries. introducing similar measures e. u members are expected to meet on wednesday to discuss

a joint response. croatia has adopted the euro as of midnight on johnny. the 1st it comes almost 10 years after it joined the european union. it also becomes part of the shingles zone, meaning unrestricted, travel to other member nations without id checks. public reaction to join in the euro zone has been mixed with many worried about price increases. brazil is in the 3rd day of national mourning for pele. why did known as the king of football, the late football legends wake, will be held on monday at the club stadium in santos, where he 1st made his name. tens of thousands of people were expected to attend a funeral procession, carrying his coffins through the city on tuesday. ah, and cities around the world have been ringing in the new year with countdowns and spectacular fireworks displays. many have seen a return to the full scale celebrations are for the removal of pandemic restrictions. well those were the headlines that is continues here now to sierra

off to the bottom line statement than so watching bye for now with hi, i'm steve clements and i have a question with neither side. willing to negotiate is the ukraine war becoming a forever war? let's get to the bottom line. ah. after 10 months of fighting, the ukraine war has settled into a scary cycle. any ukrainian advance and russian forces in the east is almost immediately followed by russia. drone strikes on ukrainian infrastructure in the west. so besides the death and the destruction and displacement of people, folks who are also suffering and freezing temperatures with no electricity, ukraine insist that the war is not over until the very last russian soldier leaves his territory. moscow can afford to wait it out because the fighting is on its soil

and western sanctions haven't cripple the economy. sure, the conflict is coming home for russians as they hear horror stories from their own young, mobilize mostly male population on the front lines. but the war machine just rages on. meanwhile, us president joe biden has been able to spend an average of $7000000000.00 per month on the ukraine war. but now that the republicans control congress, can he keep up the pace next year, or will ukraine soon have to make tough compromises and sit down at the negotiating table. today we're taking a look at the next phase of the war with steven wall, professor of international relations at harvard university and author of the hell of good intentions, american foreign policy elite, and the decline of us primacy. steve, it's so great to be with you. again, this is always a tough discussion. i want to tell people none of us take what's going on lightly. but i'm very happy to be talking to dr. wal today about what history tells us at moments like this. what, what should we be thinking about that maybe we're afraid to talk about about where

the ukraine is. war is going, steve. well, i think probably the scariest prospect for most of us is that you won't get the site kind of decisive hollywood ending that many people would like to see here. i think most of us would like to see where you get sort of decisive humiliating defeat of russia. the united states and its allies can claim, you know, great foreign policy victory, the ukrainians, get all of their territory back. and russia is chaps and in the future by this that's i think what many people would like to see? and the problem is that while that is, i guess, still a remote possibility is by no means the most likely possibility. i think the most likely possibility is that if we have this conversation a year from now, russia is still controlling a substantial amount of ukrainian territory. vladimir putin is still in power in moscow, and ukraine has suffered another years worth of damage. that's not going to look

like such a happy story, but it's precisely in situations like that that each side has to start rethinking what it's war aims are and start asking whether there is some sort of political compromise that neither one is necessarily going to like very much, but better than allowing the war to continue forever. war president biden has been very hesitant to ask ukraine to begin any sort of real negotiations process, but both around the president, but also very top tier national security voices are beginning to say we need another track. one of them is henry kissinger and henry kissinger in the spectator, wrote, the time is approaching to build on the strategic changes which have already been accomplished and to integrate them into a new structure towards achieving peace through negotiation. a representative of president vladimir zaleski was very quick to respond. he says, all supporters of simple solutions should remember the obvious. any agreement with

the devil, a bad piece at the expense of your in territories will be a victory for potent and a recipe for success. for autocrats around the world and that was ukrainian presidential aid, mckayla petrol, jak. well, i think that frames pretty well, you know, 2 dimensions in the debate. and i guess one of the questions i have for you, steven is america and nato. so wrapped up in this process now that we can't be the party that begins talking about how to seek a compromise or negotiate or we do stuck on one side of this, that we're no longer able to see the other side. i don't think that's quite true. it's true that the united states may not be the best honest broker here, given that we're all in on, on one particular side. and there may have to be 3rd parties that help sort of smooth the beginnings of this discussion. i might add that the a,

the president soleski is right. this is not going to be an easy negotiation by any means. and the obstacles to any kind of political settlement are formidable in people who talk about, you know, going to p stocks and reaching a solution very quickly. i think have not thought to clearly just how difficult this is going to be. ukraine has every reason to want some kind of assurances that this isn't going to happen again. russia will undoubtedly have its own desires for certain assurances so that the things that helped lead it to start the war in the 1st place are alleviated. and none of these are going to be easy to work out at all, so i wouldn't be naive about it. but nonetheless, the thing that's going to drive, i think, consideration of some form of negotiated settlement is the difficulty that both sides are going to have in achieving any kind of decisive breakthrough on the ground. it's quite clear that the initial russian war plan was badly designed there

forces mismanage that they weren't prepared. they made miscalculation after miscalculation, but at this point, there are war effort does appear to be improving slightly. they have defensible positions that are going to be hard for the ukrainians to tackle. it's going to be increasingly hard for either side, i think to make really decisive gains. and yet the pain will continue. and it's a point like that. sometimes it's called a hurting stalemate, but then you get people to say, well, ok, we're not going to get everything we might want. what can we get that we might be able to live with? i don't think we're there yet by the way. but that's, i think we're, this is ultimately going and up. one of the questions i have is, how much pain are the russians feeling from this? and recently i met with gentlemen, it was the former chief of staff of the german defense ministry is now working for the minute munich security conference. and he's very adamant that ukraine will win

and will prevail. in this he said that the russian soldiers are untrained, unprepared. they are, while we're seeing pictures of ukrainians. you know, freezing in these, in these terrible temperatures because of hit infrastructure. he said the moment, ah, the russian soldiers get wet or their uniforms aren't, aren't managed properly. they will freeze in these temperatures because they're untrained to know what to do. and i'm just interested at some certain levels at whether the feedback coming back into russia with the mobilization of so many of its young men and the battle field scenes on the russian side, which are pretty horrific. whether or not from your experience that matters in a place like russia, that even if it's not a democracy in the way, you and i look at it, a lot of russians still think they are a democracy. right? there is no question that the russian soldiers have suffered enormously and we're not particularly well prepared for this. again, there's some indications that they're getting their act together to some degree.

one of the things, it's very frustrating and trying to figure out where we are in this particular conflict, is it, it's hard to know what the relative balances on either side. i think we tend to get more upbeat reports from what's happening on the ukrainian side. it's hard to get numbers on exactly what you crania losses. have been, we hear a lot about how badly the russians are suffering. we don't hear as much about what's happening on ukrainian side, apart from the civilian suffering that ukraine is going through. and that makes it really hard to know exactly what the balance of forces likely to be. also be worth remembering. rushes got 3 times the population pollutants. mobilization has brought 300000 more soldiers into the, into the meat grinder. how well prepared they're going to be, how well they'll be able to fight, remains to be seen. it seems to me. but again, the russian at this point are fighting on the defensive and they have devoted an

enormous amount of effort over the last few months to building defensive positions in some key areas. whether that will be enough. again, we don't know yet. it would be in some respect what all of us hope for it that turns out not to be effective. what i don't think any of this is going to do though, is cause a you fundamental rethinking in moscow anytime soon you're not going to see it seems to me a popular uprising. i think the combination of russian propaganda and the security forces around pollutant are going to be able to keep the lid on this. so even though it's not particularly popular, even though the conduct of the war, it gets lots of criticism in the russian blogosphere as well and an email and things like that. i don't think that's going to lead to the kind of political change in russia that will cause an immediate, as i said, hollywood ending to this particular conflict. and i, i said, take no pleasure whatsoever in saying that let me put up some figures of what the u

. s. a to ukraine is amounting to be in 2022 alone. we have contributed about $68000000000.00. president biden has now requested an additional $37700000000.00, and that would bring the total if approved up to about 800105 1000000000. it's running about $7000000000.00 a month to, to support ukraine. and as we said, congress is going to be, have a new dimension here shortly in a couple of weeks, and the republicans will be controlling it. now to be clear to our friends, the republicans are not anti supporting ukraine. some republicans are some democrats are, but this may become more of an issue about whether or not there is a blank check to supporting ukraine. and i'm wondering whether you see where you see that going in terms of pressure. you've advocated that maybe we need another course, maybe we need to find a way towards the negotiated outcome of this given the realities. but does that

pressure on the financial side help? well, i don't think there's going to, you're going to see a congressionally mandated cut off anytime soon. i think congress will give the, by the administration wants at least for the next next few months. so i don't think that's going to be an issue. i do worry about the fact that even with the best will in the world, it may be somewhat more difficult for the west to include the united states to provide the levels of support that they've been able to sustain up until now. and that's in part because we've simply drawn down a lot of our own ammunition stocks to provide it to the ukrainians. so even if we want to keep supporting them at the level we have that may be hard to do sort of the military equivalent of a supply chain problem. but the thing that i think, worries me the most, is that we still don't have a completely effective counter and may never get one to the attacks. the russians have been making on ukraine civilian infrastructure and especially it's power grid

that kind of damage. if it eventually were to bring down the ukrainian power grid is a true catastrophe. and again, it's not just undermining ukrainian morale at that point. you really have a situation where, you know, millions of ukrainians might end up having to leave the country, which is already an issue for them. so there are, there are things that could happen in the next few months. again, i hope they do not, which worry me greatly and are somewhat independent of the billions of dollars up or down that the united states is able to provide both your article that appeared recently in foreign policy magazine. i highly recommended people to call the perpetually irrational ukraine debate, but also henry kissinger's article in the spectator. both out very recently, kind of raise this broad issue that, that where we're going right now isn't going to work. and to kissinger's point, he said in world war one, which was a fight about a lot of things, a fight about morality, a fight about, you know,

alliances essentially the united states at that moment in world war on eventually became someone who could come in and come in from the the side and begin trying to do something different. is there anywhere you know, you're famous in our air of israeli talked, so is there an off flow out there? you can't use also anymore because they're now in nato, i guess. but i mean, is there a force out there that could come by way and begin becoming part of the scene, set the stable, set the dinner, bring the parties together and begin talking about potential alternative outcomes. you know, i don't think so when the war initially broke out, i thought that the country that might be able to perform a role like that was actually china that it had influence with russia. it had a reasonably good standing with ukrainians. it was an actively involved in the fight and that he should pain could represent himself as an independent mediator, just trying to bring peace and score some great diplomatic points. if you were able

to pull that off. i think the chinese response, which has been to that have tacitly lean in support of the russians, has now remove them from that role that they're not really interested in, in plainness. i don't think there is a 3rd party now that can actually come in, grab each side by the scruff of the neck and say ok, you're going to make a deal. it's too politically fraught for the bite and administration to try and play that role. i don't think turkey, although it's played a mediating role on some minor issues connected with the conflict. but it's not in a position, doesn't have the leverage to produce the kind of deal. and ultimately this will come down to the 2 sides deciding that they are better off reaching some kind of an agreement. i don't know what form that agreement would take. and that will, as i said earlier, involve an awful lot of complex bargaining over where lines are going to be drawn. the repack creation of prisoners reconstruction aid for ukraine,

the whole issue of ukrainian neutrality, which is one of the reasons the war started assurances from the russian side. they're not simply going to rearm and start this up again a few years down the road, etc. there's an enormous number of issues that would have to be thrashed out here. and perhaps the best we can hope for is a, a genuine armistice that doesn't necessarily end the quote unquote conflict, but puts each side in a position where they don't want to resume things. a number of people. i think gideon rockman, in the financial times have recently raised the korea example. there's still no peace treaty ending the korean war. fought for 3 years from 1950 to 1953. but we have had an armistice that has held ever since then and something like that, but fashioned appropriately for the specific circumstances of ukraine might be where we end up here. of course, the korean war and part depends upon the trigger of us soldiers deployed their,

in part including, you know, the likelihood of a nuclear potential option can there. so as a sort of scary scenario to begin thinking about. but i think on another side of it, i've been trying to ask myself for the united states and nato, and i've been around a lot of officials recently who are just absolutely adamant that russia can not be given another permission slip as some people said it was given after the invasion and amex ation of crimea, that it's expansion activities are, are one, you know, and troubling in the, in parts of eastern europe was something that needed a signal back. otherwise, if you don't respond, then this problem will become a larger one. do you think there's logic in that, in that argument? i understand the logic, but i'm not persuaded by it. the idea is that if somehow russia gets anything out of this, you know, even permanent control of crimea, that we've somehow rewarded aggression. we've somehow given them a free pass,

and i think if you look at the damage that's been done to russian but done to the russian military, it's quite clear that this is a strategic defeat for russia. even if they extract some kind of pyrrhic victory in some kind of final settlement. and if you just consider what this is done to the russian economy, what it's done to the russian military, what it's done to rushes, global reputation, europe permanently winning itself off of russia, oil, and gas. you russia, being largely cut off from the most sophisticated forms of western technology, are forced to smuggle them in. this is going to have long term negative consequences for russia. in other words, they're paying an enormous price for what the decision bladder were put made. so even if they were to extract some set of concessions at the end, preserve some control of crimea or other parts of what was originally ukrainian territory. again, not something i would like to see happen,

but if that were to happen, they have paid an enormous price for it and i don't think putting would be eager at any point in what's left of his life. to replay, this kind of experiment again somewhere else. the international community has, in fact, taught the lesson that aggression really does get penalized, and it really doesn't pay. even if again, there's some kind of compromise deal. it ends the war. you and i have discuss china before and china as a much more serious geo strategic challenge to the united states and allies. what do you think china is learning from this lesson? are they seeing in america and a nato that are willing to engage more deeply than they had, or they seeing us trapped in a strategic, you know, pit that we can't extract ourselves from? i'm sure there are a range of chinese interpretations of what's going on here, but i think there are several lessons they ought to be drawing. one is that even,

you know, sophisticated or well prepared, military, sometimes screw up. and in fact, a elaborate military plans don't always go the way you expect them to. so that suggest a conventional military assault on taiwan, which would be difficult in the best of circumstances, is something they ought to really not consider. or at least not assume would go smoothly. last lesson number one less. number 2 is the one you alluded to that, that in fact, the international community tends to respond very vigorously to acts of unprovoked aggression. and a chinese assault on taiwan would be seen in that light. so the assumption that there would be disarray that america's asian partners would, you know, not know how to respond idea that nato would not react perhaps even in an asian context. all of those things are, are things that i think the chinese would not, you know, we should take these or lessons. the chinese should observe from this. there was

more life left in the western alliance than they may have believed. however, that the 3rd part of this is that the longer this war goes on, the better it probably is for china. in a huge distraction, it takes enormous amount of bandwidth is consuming american resources and western resources that could be used for other purposes. so in a chinese contact in some out, and one finally, it's making russia more dependent upon china and ultimately a more compliant ally. so if you are looking for a grand strategic imperative to try and bring the war to an end sooner rather than later, it's also so that the united states can focus on what is the longer geo strategic challenge, which is china and not russia recently. see by interview the incoming chair, the house commerce and energy committee, kathy morris rogers and i asked her about where her support for ukraine was,

and how much were hurt own constituents willing to tolerate high prices, shortages, etc, down the road potentially related to the crisis. and her response was, you know, my people really don't want to see prices continue to go up. inflation is really hurting them. and she's still, of course, sympathetic, and that is on the ukraine front. but it raises syncing question of how the, what the future is going to look like we're seeing, you know, a global food security crisis. we're seeing energy weaponized, we're seeing authoritarianism, popular populism, etc. in reaction to some of these, how messy a year or a couple of years the, you see a head as a result of a crisis like this one very, you know, as you know, they've been, since there's been some good news on the inflation front at least here in the united states, less so in other parts of the world. so that's something we may hope you know, continues. but i think you've put your finger on what is it a real problem? now if we do end up with a stalemate in ukraine, and that is,

it's one thing to get people in other countries to make sacrifices in the short term. if they think those sacrifices are going to pay off, it's much harder to get people to continue to make the same sacrifices when it appears to be kind of open ended, that this is not ultimately going to get resolved any time soon. are we going to have to do this for years to 3 years, 4 years? you and i saw the same problem with the so called forever wars in afghanistan and iraq, even when there's public support initially for them. if you don't have the prospect of success down the road, it's much harder to get people to continue to pony up and then it makes it even worse. of course, if conditions at home become more difficult, i think this is something actually the ukrainian government is well aware of, which is one of the reasons they have been trying to count recent military successes. and i think are hoping for more because the more they can demonstrate that will meant them is on their side and this isn't going to take forever. more

likely western support is to be sustained. the difficulty is, i think the military challenge for them is actually going to get art or not easier in the future. and then the domestic considerations that you just raised are going to kick in more powerfully or steven wall, harvard university professor of international relations. thank you for your candra . thanks so much for being with us today. great talking with you as always do. so what's the bottom line ending? the war in ukraine is a tough decision for the western allies. they feel that they didn't do enough in 2014 when russia annexed crimea. and that kind of gave russian president vladimir putin a permission slip in my view, to try to roll over the rest of the country. now the u. s. in the other nato nations have made ukraine, which was not an ally, and that has to be noted, be defining challenge for themselves. that means their own self image and their own sense of security is also wrapped up in the fate of ukraine. but how long will americans accept the pump money and weapons into this cause?

if it becomes a forever war, american and european support is bound to wither? so what should ukraine do? it's damned if it compromises and damned if it doesn't. and both options have very tragic consequences. so as we head into a new year, we have nothing to look forward to, but a slow slog of back and forth victories and tragedies in freezing temperature. sadly, this war seems nowhere near to an end. and that's the bottom line, ah, on counting the costs, what can we expect in 20? 23 is a global recession, inevitable. china newfound did 0 covey policy will the world's 2nd largest economy bounce back and turbulent times ahead for latin america and african countries. we find out why counting the cost on al jazeera, the latest news, as it breaks this particular sub station. let's bring it in 3 separate effects. for

6, russian, we saw with detailed coverage, they had hoped that the us would relax water pandemic restrictions this week, which was like, we had better there off of getting in from around the world. over 3000000 people built to the 3. and one of sites show their support for your nifty. i'm enough not in lieu. hello, i'm darren, jordan and dough. with a quick reminder, the top stories here now to sierra explosions of shaken ukraine's capital less than an hour into the new year. they follow a barrage of missile strikes by russia targeting, keep in other cities. the 1st blasts of 2023 hit, 2 districts. caves mer, says the advent system was working to defend the capital leaders around the.