think this is al jazeera, these, your top stories, explosions of shaken ukraine's capital less than an hour into the new year. they follow a barrage of missiles thrice by russia targets in keys and other cities. the 1st class of 2023 hit 2 districts. leaders around the world have been paying tribute to the former pope benedict, the 16th who has died at the age of $95.00 and victor led the catholic church which

asunder 8 years. he stepped down in 2013 because of ill health. north korea's lead as promising an exponential increase in the production of nuclear weapons state media. se kim john own has ordered new intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear capability as he won't see arsenal to out class us and south korean forces . president, judging things as china, is heading into a new phase of the pandemic. after most, coven 19 restrictions were lifted. he's called for unity in a televised news address, aging handling of the current surgeon current of ours cases as prompted criticism at home and concern abroad. he wore gin hu, georgia, illinois iep with extraordinary efforts. we prevailed over unprecedented difficulties and challenges and it's not been an easy journey for anyone we have now entered a new phase of covered response. we're tough challenges, remaining. canada and australia have become the latest countries to impose coven 19

checks on travelers from china? from january, the 5th, they will have to show a negative p. c. r. test. before departure. morocco has gone a step further imposing a ban on all arrivals from china. security has been beefed up in brazil's capital before the swearing in all president elect. louis ignacio lila da silva on sunday. is supporters have been gathering for the event? last week's fall bomb plots by supportive outgoing liter diable. sanara has raised tension in priscilla. there's been a 2nd day of process in bolivia, santa cruz region. after the rest of a right wing opposition needa police out in force on to fridays, violent computations with supporters of jailed governor louis fernando camacho. he denies accusations of leading a qu during practice in 2019 forced, then present. eva morales from power. ok though she headlines,

the news continues here now to their own, to counting the cost some talk to al jazeera. we also give the women of a gun. we're somehow abandoned by the international community. we listen, we up to the process for the war against terrorism. what's going on is money we meet with global news maintenance. i'm talk about the stories that one out. you see, [000:00:00;00] i flew, i'm fully back to bo, this is counting the cost on al jazeera this week. the weakest economic growth since 2001 financial institutions. warner, the global recession in 2023. we look at the reasons why and ask,

is it inevitable own, for this week, after nearly 3 years? waging ease is covered. 19 restrictions. can china recovery in 2023, and how would it impact the global economy and turbulent times ahead? 4 countries in africa and latin america. can they, whether the storm ah, welcome to this special edition of counting the cost where we're looking at what lies ahead for the global economy in 2023. 1 word that has caught everyone's attention this year is inflation. it's been a major concern for billions of people around the world and will remain so in 2023 as the international monetary fund. and the world bank have warns, so when will inflation subsides? it will likely be another couple of years before prices come down from the highs they've reached this year. with so many factors that play from central banks, hiking rates, to extreme weather events,

the energy crisis and the war in ukraine. it's complicated to say the least. so is a recession looming in 2023 economies say it's too early to tell if we are technically in a global economic slowdown, but it will certainly feel like it. a dire warning from the i m f. is that the worst is yet to come? all around the world, every day, good vending services are becoming more expensive. rising costs are making life more difficult for many people who are struggling to buy groceries. pay their bills and fill up their tanks at fuel stations. according to the mass, global inflation is forecast to decline from this year. staggering 8.8 percent to 6.5 percent in 2023. why? the total output is expected to slow to to point 7 percent in 2023. from 3.2 percent this year, the latest figures from china is national bureau statistics show the cobra 19 battered economy slammed in november before authorities east severe pandemic

restrictions. growth in factory output last month slow to half of october's rate. while retail sales contracted for a 2nd consecutive months, property investment in the world's 2nd largest economy found to its lowest in more than 2 decades. and unemployment is at its highest in 6 months. but the economies say china will rebound in 2023. they're expecting growth of 4.5 percent up from this years. 3 percent countries in latin america and in africa are in for a shock. most of the economies are major commodity exported and the global slowdown will result in weaker demand. the challenging market conditions come as the region is still grappling with the economic fall out from the pandemic and knock on effects of rushes. busy war in ukraine, economies expects rove in latin america to half from 3 percent this year, to 1.4 percent in 2023. africa, on the other hand, is likely to avoid a major economic downturn,

despite extreme weather patterns. the threat of food insecurity caused by conflicts any heavy burden of debt. so the thing economies are expected to hold steady both north africa and sub saharan africa are forecast to go 3.2 percent next year. so what can we expect from 2023. let us bring in our panel of experts to give us some insight into the year ahead. joining us from seattle in washington in the us, alex capri research fellow at the henry foundation and lecture at the end us business school from london gregor o in chief economist at global council, and from malaga mariano machado principal analysts for the americas at various maple craft thank you all for being with us on counting the cost. thank you so much for your insights in advance. let me start with you alex. in seattle, china finally loosening is covered 19 policies. will this help provide

a sparky thing for an economy? well, i think china has a lot to contend with. still, obviously the, the property, the housing market issues. i think overarching lee, the geopolitical issues with united states and the west in particular when it comes to supply chains. certainly, strategic supply chains in areas such as semiconductors and other technology areas . so the, the easing of the, of the coven restrictions are, are going to have to go quite a long way. and people are going to have to see that there is no growth. there's more progress, but china will have to contend with those other overarching issues as well. right. and we will be looking at some of the aspects that you mentioned there more closely, the property market, the geopolitical tensions with the us. but i wanted to ask you, alex, you know, many economists and yourself included seeing that this reopening will be bumpy and may be painful for china with china playing such

a pivotal role in the global supply chains. how do you see the global economy being impacted with this loosening of the co, 19 policies? well, you know, the global economy is really facing a global, a storm if you will, a perfect storm and that is, it's, it's, it's not just your politics, but it's also coming to terms with de carbon ization and climate change. there still are issues in the post cobit era, about single source supply chains coming out of china. and there's a conscious effort to diversify those supply chains and to continue to diversify. so even though china has loosened those restrictions, the, the focus on diversification and restructuring of strategic supply chains will continue. alright, gregory gregory, sorry, let me come to you and talk about the u. s. if you talk about china, obviously the u. s. also has to be looked at very closely and the u. s. is just probably surprisingly know

a consumer price index as 7 point one percent rather than the 3.7 percent that economists were expecting. do you think the federal reserve, the u. s. federal reserve is starting finally to, to have a firm grip on inflation. yes, it's well consigned, but the inflation is falling. i think what is also reassuring the court inflation also appears to be relatively under control. we obviously saw 50 basis points increase and interest rates. it's also interesting to hear what you're on pile a chair. you have to say he was sick knowing of course, that the feds will be very watchful about inflationary pressures and the us. but i think also listen carefully. it's what he said. it does appear. it piece of pipe will slow and the us with the peak at some point. actually greg,

before i go to to mariano, what about global inflation? do you expect that to, to stabilize? well, google lation will be glides if for no other reason than simple arithmetic. the annual inflation headline, which is great that most people focus on, that's a measure. prices have increased the costs of the past year. and of course, a lot this has been driven by higher energy at prices and higher prices, mostly higher energy prices and a big spike in energy prices, least the 1st spike in energy prices came back year ago. so just by virtue of the fact that those are price increases before life of the calculation, that means that headline inflation will fall. the policy makers focus more on toward inflation and moving to the problem of inflation, but only disappear slowly as policy makers from the focus on the

challenge. mariana, let me come tonight. as i said, 9, traction, african, and latin american economies are expected to face turbulent times in 2023. talk to us about the internal and external chunks that are likely to undermine are these 2 region is growth prospects? that is an excellent question and thank you for having us today and actually are day to show those out. during 2022, we saw the largest jump in terms of countries that increase the risk for civil unrest in both regions. you're mentioned specifically, and we are expecting a group of nearly 40 countries. 3rd are suffering an uptick and in the probability of civil commotion by march 23. and the underlying factors in this case in our views are 2. the 1st one is of course inflation, and as my colleagues were saying, we are still undergoing discussions in the regions about the effectiveness of monetary policy to basically deal with what are rather inform on economies in which central banks have less capacity to operate on the drivers of this trends, and the 2nd is, and this is

a very interesting and important point for logan america in particular, is the duty off institutional mechanisms to funnel discontent, sustained discontent. given the 2 trends are continuously to be colliding, we expect the 20th. we outlook to be blake. yeah. alameda. yeah. and social discontent could be a key factor here. looking at latin america more specifically, brazil. and we've seen this new shift to the left. the so called new pink tied in brazil for example, with a return of lula to power. a brazil government has got its 2023 g d. p growth forecasts are 2 point one percent. and the new president, it seems, may need more than $39000000000.00 in extra government spending, which is going to be a huge challenge. william, isn't it exactly like that? and it's very interesting because as you mentioned, we are witnessing what appears to be is now confirmed my return of what we can call the bing type. but unlike the being tied of the early 2 thousands where you see

a massive differences between the 2 of them, one of them, key one, it's, ah, the ability of the groups that are reaching office now. and the cohesion of those groups and secondary social patients. so basically, even for comeback are such as lula, which is not the only one in the region, but could be the most of spanish, shall in terms of there are stand in political come back. he just bought during this past 2 years, patient is running very low. in the case in brazil, and the ability to the blow policy and the ability to control that spend and to ensure all of the promises he had has made during the campaign, remains to be. so do you think he can fulfill his electoral promises of lifting people out of property? well, i think is gonna be central to his policy agenda, but the thing is, unlike his previous to our presidential inclinations this time around the p t. his bar to the workers party place i pretty much into about his role if you want to, you know, one among many in a big, big coalition that he required to actually achieve power. and based on the results

of the election and a very, a diverse congressional setting, i think this will be a, our quickbook or situation. every bill, every reform, every decision will need to be negotiated. so we will need some time to see how that unfolds. all right, alix, that may come tina, and let's talk about the us china relationship. because we've seen that the u. s. restricting china's access to technology a capital markets, as well as u. s. companies to invest their ability to invest in advance technology in china. what impact as it had not just in the high tech sector in china, but also in the us? well, it's actually spawned a bit of a, of a technology investment surge in the us. so the, the, the semiconductor industry association just reported that since august when the chips and science act was essentially enacted $280000000000.00 of investment towards technology investment innovation. the private sector. since the enactment

of chips has invested some $200000000000.00 just towards just towards fabrication. so foundry related activities regarding semiconductors. okay. and it's, it's a company not just in arizona or texas or silicon valley, it's happening and in lesser known parts of the country, primarily through public, private partnerships. so. so i do expect in 2023 to see an increase in public private partnerships governments working with private industry and increasingly, academia and research institutions to, to basically pursue economic growth. ok. so want to pursue economic growth. let me come to you now. we've talked about the us china relationship. we've looked at latin america. let's talk to you about europe and the energy crisis fair, which we've seen, has been a big issue this year. and this energy crisis expected will cause

a mild recession in europe. what do you think this will mean 1st, for the european central bank, banks fight against inflation in 2023. think most european economies will still grow. in 2023 family. some economies are likely to see a recession amongst the larger economy due to germany, a most likely to see a recession in germany. that is very directly related to vantage situation. industrial production in germany's been caused by higher energy prices mccade the there are a number of factors that play political uncertainty impact also on business investments. other economies, me also slip into this nation, swedish economy is one that is perhaps on the margins the european central bank is

trying to ensure that it addresses the inflation problem. the inflation problem in the years on is not as bonds, just quote, inflation and headline inflation. as it is the us or the u. k. an interest rate for the rise. the sep, will most likely raise rates by another 50 basis points to the e. c. p. also be the challenge of as it reduces the size of the balance sheets begins to unwind large accumulation of assets taken place in several years as part of its quantitative easing program. and also need to be careful attention to what happens to the cost of parental rights across the euro area for now. that looks like a manageable task, but it certainly complicates the monetary policy challenge. what is the fixed? what about greg or the scramble for gas? do you think it will be worse in 20?

$23.00. i think so far. the also has seen gas storage levels at reasonably comfortable levels in europe. that reflects the relatively miles early. awesome. i think the challenge will be maybe not so much what happens this year and summer, but what happens next year as an inch gas storage level, the level depends on the weather and i can i can tell you that right now it's very cold, monday and much of europe right out of the fact that let me just one very notable success november average energy demand is by the 24 percent compared to the previous 5. that's quite a remarkable effort. saves energy demands reduction, right mariano, that the latin america region has perhaps been the biggest beneficiary in the search of energy prices because of the war in ukraine. is that still going to be the case? you think in 20?

$23.00. what. what are the key trends in terms of commodities for the latin america region? there is an extremely interesting question because it speaks of a to trend, a twofold, a trend we're seen in the region, short term demands for our non renewable energy sources as you just were saying. as a result of the conflict in ukraine, er benefit in most of their, our producers, both private and public and latin american space. among them there makes bit throat ass and other players. but at the same time we're, we're seen as beyond that short term opportunity. we're seeing a long term development trend in terms of everything that is needed for the energy transmission as a way, as a way to just move away from fossil fuels. so the question now is, how long this window of opportunity for short term demands will persist? and if certain players such as argentina and example, us an amazing play in terms of energy, will be able to a big, big a ride at that trend. and 2nd, trad, if countries are like other opportunities will be able to seize the opportunity in

relation to commodities need to for the energy transition. in general. not mariani talked there about argentina. and i do want to find out more about our trend, tina and it's debt. of course it's reach a deal to restructure at the $1970000000.00 debt it owes to the paris club. do you think this is a good deal for argentina and can it overcome its debt problems? i had of the 2023 elections. we just take a step back here and just recap the law. they live late, a set of events, including the one that you mentioned folly the are to argentina, reach an agreement with private ball holders by itself are, did you know, reach an agreement with ours globe and also with the i m f. but at the same time, the court administration has taken the current deb levels to peak right a few months ago in october, middle to $400000000000.00 the highest mark ever in the country. ah, external debt. so what we're seeing now here is a rather control situation of the external front, but not because of resolution, but because of the postponement of payments. and are somewhat worried where some

people are included as are worried about the domestic market dead. because also there has been this bus bone meant and what we're see now, although there are, have been successes in terms of the off of seizing issuance and in the local market . we're seeing this snowballing chances of really offer up favor resolution before the 2023 october election are slim, but will let me time to see how bad and false they may take time to see if the agent is able to, to resolve this. that issue that alex china also has a debt problem. air the debt, written property sector, will the property market was be over a think in 2023? no, i think this is a systemic issue that's been part of the you know, the communist parties growth plan rates just bill bill bill built. and so the over capacity issues i think, will continue not just in the property market but in other areas as well. i mean we've seen over capacity and steel, for example. ah,

so this is definitely a part of a much wider systemic issue. i think for the chinese economy. ah gregor, another big issue this year was of course crypt till current season as 2023 comes to an end. crypto currency trade is worldwide having really a rough time. we've seen the collapse of f t x, for example, crypto currencies jumping by more than 60 percent in 20. 22. what's next? he think for crypto currencies in 2023. what does the future look like? i think what's next is probably regulation more regulation. i the reasons why that look to happen partly because the, the whether or not national regulators really have a mandate to regulate trip. so i've been unclear and many regulators been kind of slow to get but i think sean is that many trip?

so try and see if it just too big to ignore. i regulation on the to extends, just beyond the sort of simple, straight proverbs aspects around money laundering, which is complicated enough, but that is something you can regulate already has a receipt for the currencies. so we're going to see that regulatory perimeter trip . so it's been quite a bit alex feel far about the future of crypt currency. yeah, i just don't see it having a particularly bright future. you know, i think the, the gregor mentioned regulation. i think the problem with crypto is it's very, very hard to regulate. it's very difficult to regulate just by its nature. so, you know, as an investments are sort of a holding investments in an option. yes. i, you know, people will continue to invest in it. i it, it will probably, you know, stay in the portfolios of larger investors are where i see a digital currency going and in crypto is not, it is not

a currency. i should say. i'm not a viable currency in my opinion, but, but central bank act didn't currencies, i think will be something that we'll see more interest in in 2023. i, we've just got a few minutes left on the show and i'll ask you for a final word about your, your outlook, the big picture for 2023. but i want to ask you 1st, ah, in mariano, in malaga, about the outlook traffic in economy. in 2023, we've seen a handful of nations defaulting on our dest eye exam, be out ganeth currency. the said he had it worse performance in 2022. what, what is the outlook for these african economies? and are they going to be able to organize reorganized a local debt? does a very interesting question and actually one factor we need to take in mind when we remind me to take a step back and look at cow, ah, the situation of this concrete, what represents for different international stakeholders that could help with those situations such as the i math such as the world bank or other multilaterals because

there seems to be, ah, not so tacit, but rather explicit agreement that across emerging markets, including the african nations, but also latin america. there is the need to sustain economies to allow for, for economic recovery to just continue regardless of this of the challenges of apache economic recovery. if you're one to, to, we expect this mixture of, in a domestic and ability. i mean national decision to sustain this economy, gregory, your thoughts about the outlook for african economies in 2023. clearly the cobra tango, there are countries are suffering from higher energy prices that are countries suffering from a strong dollar higher interest rates. so yeah, i think there are number of countries that have a problem and those problems are likely to come to the for next year we already gonna which the and i just recently the debt to g d p. and present that they will need to have that restructuring. i think we'll see more about the threat 3 because

some countries are doing well and they are the commodity courses we've got a minute left on the show. so i want now quick prediction from all 3 of you on what will the comic landscape in 2023 look like at the end of 2023. alex, let me start with you in just a few seconds. i think it will of fragment continue to fragment from a supply chain perspective. and the supply chains will break into 3 areas, strategic sensitive supply chains, which will fragment a middle grey zone that features dual use technologies. and which of course, spill over into all other industries, and then sort of another band of innocuous stuff that nobody really cares about. so it's going to be complicated. alright, complicated, mariana, your thoughts. we are still facing demand. we will need to see how that goes in the global level below. so we need to see a lot of political and technical decisions on behalf of, of emerging markets when it comes to using the opportunities or the landscape. he's

presenting especially in developing certain commodities for the transition. right. greg? are in london, you have the final word. what will be going on with landscape looked like towards the end of 2023. so inflation sure. interest rates are turning point and even more uneven for growth and fragmentation. i think that's absolutely right, but not just apply to policy as well. and i think the next sprecher what, what i'm talking about china, even though we hopped on are sure today gentlemen, thank you so very much for your insights. it was great to hear your thoughts about the year ahead or in the world of business. thank you. gregor erwin, i alex coppery and mariano machado, thank you once again for being on counting the cost and berries our show for this week get in touch with us by treating me actually by a j e. and do use a hash tag, a j, c, c, c. when you to the, or drop us an email. counting the cost that al jazeera dot net is our address.

there's more for you online on al jazeera dot com slash cdc. that will take you straight to our page, which as individual reports, links an entire episode for you to catch up on. and that's it for this edition of counting the cost. i'm fully betty ball from the whole team. thanks for joining us . the news on al jazeera is next trust is fundamentally to all our relationships. we trust banks without money, doctors, without really personal information. what happens to trust in a well driven by algorithms as more and more decisions are made for us by these complex pieces of code? the question that comes back is inevitable. we can we trust algorithms in the 1st of a 5 part series alley rate questions. the neutrality of digital deductions, trust me, i'm an algorithm on a jessina, the latest news as it breaks this particular sub station. let's bring in 3 separate

effects. for 6, russian, we saw with detailed coverage they had helped us would relax water pandemic restrictions this week, which would likely have better their odds of getting in from around the world over 3000000 people to talk to the 3 and one sided. their support for you and then mfc and the national peep awe. ready explosions in ukraine's capital to start the new year. just al is often barrows of missile attacks by russia. ah,