questions venezuelan president nicholas my daughter's me election formal since then security along the border has deteriorated with the arm groups controlling the legal transports of goods and the exodus of venezuelan migrants. now people on both sides, many by national, are hoping they will benefit socially and economically. well mister glen mondanca, the former brotherhood is back and this is what the, when it's all and people want that we build brotherhood again that our ven, it's allan brothers come through with vehicles the day entre columbia because many people have their relatives on the other side of the border wait, but i mean if he's trade between the 2 countries was worth over 7000000000 us dollars back in 2008, but has collapsed to less than 300000000. since while returning to those levels will be difficult. the reopening as brought relief and hopes for better times ahead . alexander and be at the al jazeera will with that. ah,

this is al jazeera, these, the top stories, rushes defense ministry, says 63 of its soldiers were killed and ukrainian attack in the rush control. dan yeske region of ukraine, had happened to the town of marquis of gar, just minutes into new year's day. charles stratford has more from keith. it's better to say that what significant here is that this is a rare admission by the russian defense ministry that such an alleged attack happened. and they are admitting to that 63 soldiers according to them, were killed in this attack, using what they describe as a u. s. supplied him ours rocket systems. interesting, there has been a statement put out by the strategic communications directorate for the ukranian armed forces. now this is only telegram channel and it uses some pretty floral language as world are describing what it says were $400.00 soldiers in this attack that were killed describing them as pig dogs. emotional brazilians are paying their

final respects to football legend palais in this city. of santos, where he 1st gained fame. a 24 hour wake is taking place at the stadium, which is home to the lake football as long time club. these are live pictures of the scene. and i will be lay to rest on tuesday. it's already force is of entered the town of cuff darn, i ain't jeanine to demolish the homes of 2 palestinians. they were accused of killing an authority officer. last september, following the demolitions fighting broke out between the ready troops and local residents to palestinians were killed. the recent surgeon cove at 19 infections in china has prompted a growing global response around a dozen countries, including france of now impose restrictions on travelers from the country in special monetary funds. as a 3rd of the global economy will slide into recession this year. the i'm f blames a single, tiny, a slowdown of economic activity in the united states. europe. i'm china. all right,

you up state. those are the headlines. the news continues here announces hereabouts after accounts with slow, i'm fully back to bo, this is counting the cost on al jazeera. this week. the week is t konami growth, since 2001 financial institutions warner, the global recession. in 2023. we look at the reasons why and ask, is it inevitable also this week after nearly 3 years,

bay gene ease is called 19 restrictions. can china recovery in 2023, and how would it impact the global economy? and turbulent times a headphone countries in africa and latin america. can they, whether the storm ah, welcome to this special edition of counting the cost where we're looking at what lies ahead for the global economy in 2023. 1 word that has caught everyone's attention this year is inflation. it's been a major concern for billions of people around the world and will remain so in 2023 as the international monetary fund and the world bank have warned. so when will inflation subsides? it will like may be another couple of years before prices come down from the highs of reach this year with so many factors that play from central banks, hiking rates, through extreme weather events, the energy crisis and the war. and ukraine is complicated to say the least. so is

a recession looming in 2023 economies say it's too early to tell if we are technically in a global economic slowdown, but it will certainly feel like it. a dire warning from the i m f, is that the worst is yet to come all around the world. every day, goods and services are becoming more expensive. rising costs are making life more difficult for many people who are struggling to buy groceries. pay their bills and fill up their tanks at fuel stations. according to the mass, global inflation is forecast to decline from this year. staggering 8.8 percent to 6.5 percent in 2023. why total output is expected to slow to to point 7 percent in 2023 from 3.2 percent this year. the latest figures from china is national bureau statistics show the cobra 19 battered economies slammed in november before authorities east severe pandemic restrictions. growth in factory output last month,

slow to half of october's rate, while retail sales contracted for a 2nd consecutive months. property investment in the world's 2nd largest economy found to its lowest in more than 2 decades. and unemployment is at its highest in 6 months. but the economy is say, china will rebound in 2023. they're expecting growth of 4.5 percent up from this years. 3 percent countries in latin america and in africa are in for a shock. most of the economies are major commodity exported. and the global slowdown will result in weaker demand. the challenging market conditions come as the region is still grappling with economic fall out from the pandemic, and knock on the effects of russia's. busy war in ukraine, economies expects rove in latin america to half from 3 percent this year, to 1.4 percent in 2023. africa, on the other hand, is likely to avoid a major economic downturn, despite extreme weather patterns. the threat of food insecurity caused by conflict,

any heavy burden of debt. so the thing economies are expected to hold steady both north africa and sub saharan africa are forecast to go 3.2 percent next year. so what can we expect from 2023. let's bring in our panel of experts to give us some insight into the year ahead. joining us from seattle in washington in the us, alex capri research fellow at the henry foundation and lecture at the end us business school from london. gregor irwin, chief economist at global council and from malaga mariano machado, principal analyst for the americas at various maple craft. thank you all for being with us on counting the crossed. thank you so much for your insights in advance. let me start with you alex. in seattle, china finally loosening is covered 19 policies. will this help provide a sparky thing for an economy?

well, i think china has a lot to contend with. still, obviously the, the property in the housing market issues. i think overarching lee, the geopolitical issues with the united states and the west in particular when it comes to supply chains. certainly strategic supply chains in areas such as semiconductors and other technology areas. so the, the easing of the, of the coven restrictions are, are going to have to go quite a long way. and people are going to have to see that there is no growth. there's more progress, but a china will have to contend with those other overarching issues. as well, right, and we will be looking at some of the aspects that you mentioned there more closely the property market, the geopolitical tensions with the us. but i wanted to ask you, alex, you know, many economists and yourself included seeing that this reopening will be bumpy and may be painful for china with china playing such a pivotal role in the global supply chains. how do you see the global economy being

impacted with this loosening of the covey? 19 policies? well, you know, the global economy is really facing a global, a storm if you will, a perfect storm and that is, it's, it's, it's not just your politics, but it's also coming to terms with the carbon ization and climate change. there still are issues in the post coban era, about single source supply chains coming out of china. and there's a conscious effort to diversify those supply chains and to continue to diversify. so even though china has loosened those restrictions, the, the focus on diversification restructuring of strategic supply chains will continue . alright, gregory gregory, sorry, let me come to you and talk about the u. s. if you talk about china, obviously the u. s. also has to be looked at very closely and the u. s. is just probably surprisingly low a consumer price index as 7 point one percent rather than the 3.7 percent that

economists were expecting. do you think the federal reserve, the u. s. federal reserve is starting finally to, to have a firm grip on inflation. yes. well consigned, but the inflation number a spoiling, i think, what is also reassuring the court inflation also appears to be relatively under control. we obviously saw 50 basis points increase and interest rates is also interesting to hear at your own pile a chair you have to say he was sick knowing of course, that the feds will be very watchful about inflationary pressures and the us. but i think also he did listen carefully, it's what he said. it does appear a piece of pipe will slow and the us treasury peak at some point in action. greg, before i go to to mariano, what about global inflation?

do you expect that to, to stabilize? well go completion. will speed glides if for no other reason than simple arithmetic . the annual inflation headline inflation rate, the most people focused on. that's a measure. prices have increased the cost of the past year. and of course, a lot, this is being driven by higher energy at prices and higher prices. so mostly higher energy prices and a big spike in energy prices, least the 1st spike in energy prices came back year ago. so just by virtue of the fact that those are price increases both for life of the calculation, that means that headline inflation will fall. what policy makers focus more on toward inflation and that will lead to the problem of inflation, but only disappear slowly as policy makers from the focus from the challenge. mariana, let me come tonight. he said, 9 production african and latin american economies are expected to face turbulent

times in 2023. talk to us about the internal and external chunks that are likely to undermine are these 2 region is growth prospects? that is an excellent question and thank you for having us today. and actually, our data shows those out. during 2022. we saw the largest jump in terms of countries that increase the risk for civil unrest in both regions. you're mentioned specifically, and we are expecting a rebuff. nearly 40 countries, 3rd are suffering an uptick and in the probability of civil commotion by march 23 and the underlying factors in this case in our views are 2. the 1st one is of course inflation and my colleagues were saying we are still undergoing discussions in the regions about the effectiveness of monetary policy to basically deal with what are rather informal economies in which central banks have less capacity to operate on the drivers of this trends and the 2nd is, and this is a very interesting and important point for in america, in particular,

is the duty off institutional mechanisms to funnel discontent, sustained discontent. given the 2 trends are continuously to be colliding. we expect the 20th. we outlook to be blake. yeah. along with that, yeah, and social discontent could be a key factor here, looking at latin america more specifically, brazil. and we've seen this new shift to the left, the so called new pink tied in brazil for example, with a return of lula to power i, brazil's government has cut it's 2023, g d p growth forecasts are 2 point one percent. and the new president seems, may need more than $39000000000.00 in extra government spending, which is going to be a huge challenge. william, isn't it exactly like that. and it's very interesting because as you mentioned, we are witnessing what appears to be is now confirm my return of, well we can call the being tight. but unlike the ping tide of the early 2 thousands where you see a massive differences between the 2 of them, one of them, key one,

it's ah, the ability of the groups that are reaching office now. and the cohesion of those groups and secondary social patients. so basically, even for come back here, such as lula which says, is not the only one in the region, but could be the most of stanish al, in terms of there are standing political come back. he just bought during this last 2 years, patient is running very low in the case in brazil and the ability to the blow policy and the ability to control that spend and to ensure all of the promises he had has made during the campaign, remains to be seen, do you think he can fulfill his electoral promise as of lifting people out of probably, well i think is gonna be central to his policy agenda. but the thing is, unlike his previous to our presidential inclinations this time around, the bt his bar to the workers party, place a prima's into about his role if you want to, you know, one among many in a big, big coalition that hit required to actually achieve power and based on the results of the election and a very diverse congressional setting. i think this will be a r,

r, quickbook or situation. every bill, every reform, every decision will need to be negotiated. so we will need some time to see how that unfolds. i had alex that may come tina, and let's talk about the us china relationship because we see that the u. s. restricting china is access to technology or capital markets, as well as u. s. companies to invest their ability to invest in advanced technology in china. what impact as it had not just in the high tech sector in china, but also in the us? well, it's actually spawned a bit of a, of a technology investment surge in the us. so the, the, the semiconductor industry association just reported that since august, when the chips and science act was essentially enacted $280000000000.00 of investment towards technology investment innovation. the private sector. since the enact mint of chips has invested some $200000000000.00 just towards just towards

fabrication. so foundry related activities regarding semiconductors. okay. and it's, it's a company, not just an arizona or texas or silicon valley, it's happening and in lesser known parts of the country, primarily through public, private partnerships. so. so i do expect in 2023 to see an increase in public private partnerships governments working with private industry and increasingly, academia and research institutions to, to basically pursue economic growth. ok, so i want to pursue economic growth. let me come to you now. we've talked about the us china relationship. we've looked at latin america. let's talk to you about europe and the energy crisis there, which we've seen, has been a big issue this year. and this energy crisis expected will cause a minute recession in europe. what do you think this will mean 1st,

for the european central bank, a banks fight against inflation in 2023. think most european economies will still grow in 2023. suddenly some economies are likely to see a recession amongst the larger economy. you can germany a most likely to see a recession in germany. that is very directly related to vantage. speculation. industrial production in germany's been caused by higher energy prices. mccade the there are a number of factors that play political uncertainty impacts also on business investments. other economies, me also slip into this nation, swedish economy is one that is perhaps on the margins the european central bank is trying to ensure that it addresses the inflation problem,

the inflation problem in the years on it's not just quote, inflation and headline inflation. is it is the us or the u. k. interest rate. for the rise, the sep will most likely raise rates by another 50 basis points between the e. c. p. also, the challenge of, as it reduces the size of its balance sheets begins to unwind large accumulation about taking place of several years as part of this quantity visa program. and also need to be careful attention to what happens to the cost of our inter guns right across the euro area for now. that looks like a manageable task, but it certainly complicates the monetary policy challenge what would be fixed. what about greg or the scramble for gas? do you think it will be worse in 20? $23.00. i think so far. the also has seen gas

storage levels that reasonably comfortable levels in europe. that reflects relatively miles early. awesome. i think the challenge will be maybe not so much what happens this year and summer, but what happens next year? you're trying to manage gas storage level to level depends on the whether i can i can tell you that right now it's betty colds london and much of europe right out of the fact let me just one very notable success november average energy demand is done by the 24 percent compared to the previous 5. that's quite a remarkable asset. saves energy demands reduction. i. it may. i know that the latin america region has perhaps been the biggest beneficiary in the search of energy prices because of the war in ukraine. is that still going to be the case? you think in 20? $23.00. what. what are the key trends in terms of commodities for the latin america

region? is an extremely interesting question because it speaks of a to trend a to fall to trend. we're seen in the region, short term demands for our non renewable energy sources as you just were saying. as a result of the conflict, ukraine er benefit in most of their, our producers, both private and public and latin american space. among them there makes bit throat ass and other players, but at the same time we're seen as beyond that short term opportunity. we're seeing a long term development trend in terms of everything that is needed for the energy transmission as a way, as a way to just move away from fossil fuels. so the question now is, how long this window of opportunity for short term demands will persist? and if certain players such as argentina, and example, us an amazing play in terms of energy, will be able to pick a bigger right at that trend. and 2nd to rad, if countries are like other opportunities will be able to seize the opportunity in relation to commodities, need to for the energy position in general. now mariani talked there about

argentina, and i do want to find out more about our join tina. and it's debt, of course it's reach a deal to restructure at the $1970000000.00 debt. it goes to the paris club. do you think this is a good deal for argentina and can it overcome its debt problems? i had of the 2023 elections. we did take a step back here and just recap the line. they list late a set of events, including the one that you mentioned poly the are to argentina, reach an agreement with private ball holders by itself are did you know, reach an agreement with ours club and also with the i m f. but at the same time, the court administration has taken the current deb levels to peak right a few months ago in october, middle to $400000000000.00 the highest mark ever in the country. ah, external that. so what we're seeing now here is our rather control situation of the external front, but not because of resolution, but because of the postponement of payments. and somewhat worried where some people are included as are worry about the domestic market. that because also there has

been dispos spoke meant and what we're seeing now, although there are have been successes in terms of the, of, of seizing issuance and in local market. we're seeing this snowballing chances of red offer of favor resolution before the 2023 over election are slim, but we'll need time to see how that unfolds. that may take time to see if the as in tina is able to to resolve this. that issue alex, china also has a debt problem at the debt written property sector. will the property market won't be over, you think in 2023? no, i think this is a systemic issue that's been part of the, you know, the communist parties growth plan, right. just billed billed bill built and so the over capacity issues i think will continue not just in the property market, but in other areas as well. i mean, we've seen over capacity in steel for example. and so this is definitely a part of a much wider systemic issue, i think, for the chinese economy. gregory,

another big issue this year was, of course crypto currencies. and as 2023 comes to an end crypto currency traitors worldwide. having really a rough time. we've seen the collapse of f t x, for example, crypto currency dropping by more than 60 percent in 2022. what's next? do you think for capital currencies in 20? 23. what does the future look like? i think what's probably regulation more regulation the reasons why that look to happen. partly because the, the whether or not national regulators really have a mandate to regulate trip. so have been unclear and many regulate slosik. but i think the actually showing is that many trip. so transition just too big to ignore regulation, to extends,

just beyond the set of simple, straight proverbs aspects around money laundering, which is complicated enough. but that is something you can regulate already has a receipt for currencies. but we're going to see that regulatory premise of trip. so it's been quite a bit alex feel far about the future of crypto currency. yeah, i just don't see it having a particularly bright future. you know, i think the, the gregor mentioned regulation. i think the problem with crypto is it's very, very hard to regulate. it's very difficult to regulate just by its nature. so i, you know, as an investments are sort of a holding investments are option yes. i, you know, people will continue to invest in it. i it, it will probably, you know, stay in the portfolios of larger investors are where i see a digital currency going and, and crypto is not, it is not a currency. i should say. i'm not a viable currency in my opinion,

but central bank act didn't know currencies, i think will be something that we'll see more interest in our in 2023 i we've just got a few minutes left on the show and i'll ask you for a final word about your, your outlook, the big picture for 2023, but i want to ask you 1st ah, in mariano, in malaga, about the outlook traffic in economy in 2023. we've seen a handful of nations defaulting on our dead side, zambia, ganeth currency. the city had its worst perform and say in 2022. what is the outlook for these african economies? and are they going to be able to organize reorganized a local debt? does a very interesting question and actually one factor we need to take in mind when we remind me to take a step back and look at cow, ah, the situation of this concrete of what represents for different international stakeholders that could help with those situations such as the i may have such as the world bank or other multilaterals because there seems to be, ah, not so tacit,

but rather explicit of women that are across emerging markets, including the african nations, but also a latin america. there is the need to sustain economies to allow for, for economic recovery to just continue regardless of this of the challenges of patchy economic recovery from one to, to we expect this mixture of, in a domestic and ability. i mean national decision to sustain this economy. gregory, your thoughts about the outlook for african economies in 2023. clearly the cobra tango, there are countries suffering from higher energy prices that are countries suffering from a strong dollar higher interest rates. so yeah, i think there are a number of countries that have a debt problem and those problems are likely to come to the for next year. we already have ghana which that and i just recently get to gdp and present that they will have that restructuring. i think we'll see more about the threat 3 because some countries are doing well and they are the commodity courses we've got

a minute left on the show. so i want now a quick prediction from all 3 of you on what will the comic landscape in 2023 look like at the end of 2023. alex, let me start with you in just a few seconds. i think it will of fragment continue to fragment from a supply chain perspective. and supply chains will break into 3 areas, strategic sensitive supply chains, which will fragment a middle gray zone that features dual use technologies. and which of course, spill over into all other industries. and then sort of another band of innocuous stuff that nobody really cares about. so it's going to be complicated. alright, complicated, mariana, your thoughts, we are still facing subdue demands. we will need to see how that goes in the global level below. so we need to see a lot of political and technical decisions on behalf of, of emerging markets when it comes to using the opportunities that the landscape is presenting, especially in developing certain commodities for the transition. right. greg,

are in london. you have the final word. what will the comic landscape look like towards the end of 2023. so lowered inflation. sure. interest rates and tonic pine and even more uneven for growth and fragmentation. i think that's absolutely right, but not just apply to policy as well. and i think the next it will sprecher one more time talking about china, even though we hopped on are sure today, gentlemen, thank you so very much for your insights. it was great to hear your thoughts about the year ahead in the world of business. thank you. gregor erwin, i alex coppery and mariano machado, thank you once again for being on counting the cost and berries our show for this week get in touch with us by treating me actually by a j e. and do use a hashtag, a j c, c. c. when you do that or drop us an email, counting the cost that al jazeera dot net is our address. there's more for you online on al jazeera dot com slash ctc. that will take you straight to our page,

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