and be sure like playing for 7, he needs to go out to work. when sociologist says the government has missed the mark, pointing to young people who face low wages and unstable employment prospects, which leads to increased competition. and brewing distrust between genders. children are a life long commitment and many young i'll go find it difficult to think about being responsible for the one person's life when they're not sure about their future. so furthermore, some yobbos are constantly exhausted and tire is a result of working long hours as lifespans increase economist project by by 2050, for every 100 working south koreans, there will be 76 dependence, both minors and the elderly. the government will need to decide how to prevent the demographic imbalance from tipping into a fight over a limited resources unit. kim al jazeera sol. ah,

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thousands of brazilians have been lining up in the city of santos, to pay their respects to pelley who died on thursday at the age of 80 to whom all legend started his career there. and the cities holding a 24 hour wake at the viola bill miro stadium, brazilian president louis enough. viola da silva has held meetings with world leaders on his 1st full day in office since being sworn in las made it a priority to restore brazil's leadership role on the global stage. days of protests in bolivia against the detention of a right wing opposition leader are showing no signs of easy demonstrators in santa cruz, torched cars and set off fireworks in the latest confrontations with police, governor louis fernando camacho was arrested last week. norway has set a record for electric car sales. new figures show almost 80 percent of new cars registered last year or battery powered the government once an all new cars to be

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hi anthony. ok. thanks for watching the stream. by november, the 15th, there will be 8000000000 human beings in the well, that's according to protection by united nations system questions that i have. how do we respond to being one in 1000000000? how will, how do we maintain a decent quality of life for all of us? and then what happens after 8000000000 humans in the world? those are the questions i have for an expert panel. i'm sure you have questions to ask them as well. the comment section is right here on you chip. be part of today's shy. ah, hello rachel and jennifer and alex is so good to have this expert panel here today on the stream. rachel, please say hello to our audience around the well, tell them who you are, what you do? i family, and greetings to all. my name is dr. rachel snow, and i'm the chief of population and development at the u. n. population fund based in new york. and we support census and how to use census data in more than $130.00

countries across the world. hello jennifer. welcome to the stain. tell the viewers around the welt. hey you on what you day. hi phemie. i'm so glad to be here. i'm dr . jennifer schubert, i am a scholar at the woodrow wilson center and author of the new book, 8000000000 in counting house sex death and migration shape our world. thanksgiving with us and alex, welcome back to the stream. get to see you again. remind audience who you are and what you day a thank you for me. thank you for having me back. i for 56 of those. i'd prefer self global health. i don't i school of public health director university insurance . gotcha. i'm a demographic by trending on previously. i saw an executive director just a couple of michelin health research simply myra and i also saw on the urine high level of dr. st. board for clinical social offers. so i guess it's really hard for me to grapple with what a 1000000000 people looks like. what that feels like?

well, i feel different on november, the 15th, and i do right now, rachel. no, you won't. in civil terms. yeah, this has been a while coming and you won't feel much on the 15th of november. jennifer, when we talk about a number like 8000000000, if you're studying population, then you knew it was coming. i remember at school we were usually worried about how many more billions of people can can survive on the earth. and he, we our 8000000. what does that mean for most of us? how should we think about that number? well, you know, i also remember studying this in school, and actually, i think that's how i ended up making her career out of studying population. because to rachel's point, you know, well we feel any different. i remember sitting in 1999. i think it was october 15th 1999 in the college classroom in atlanta where i'm from. and my professor was late

to class that day and she paused in the door and had a black arm band on. and she marched into class and said to day, world population has had 6000000000 people. this is a travesty. i never had kid. you shouldn't either. and so i think for many people there's this sense that every time we hit a 1000000000, this is it, we're about to, it's like we're going to tip over the edge. you know, when you're pouring something in a bowl and you're just waiting for it to spill over. but here we still are, which i think is a really good thing for us to remember. i've, i've seen a few 1000000000 in my lifetime, and i like to think of myself is pretty young. so i don't think we have to look at this is some doomsday. finally arriving, alex does not moving lumber. mean anything to somebody who studies, demographics. you knew this number was coming, you understand what it means? doesn't give you pools. oh, thankfully, not necessarily doesn't give me that pause is just simply means that it is at

1000000000 november 5th by november 16th. it will be at vienna, something. and by 26, it would be 10400000000. so we will continue to grow as we go forward. is just them in many ways, but my sense is that it is also a time for us to pick a deeper look at what does that really mean for us as a humorous. i'm just looking at some of the comments we have for matthew is around the world. this is about the shame. and publishing is says, the world isn't overpopulated. it's just a matter of management. rachel, you're not paying out a lot. indeed indeed, i would. i would not, and i also want to point out that the, the growth of the population is slowing down. you know, the pace at which the world was growing, peaked in 1964 in. so we've been declining in terms of the pace. you know, it's, we're less than we're growing by less than one percent per year. we've got,

i think, 53 countries in the world that are now and population decline. china, for example, 1400000000 is peaking this year. and by 2100 here, projected to be down to 800. melia. so it things are turning. the pace is slowing. this is really important. i think it's going to give us time to, to catch up. one way i do think i see why people feel like this though. i mean, i think i'll all through all 3 of us are used to people throwing doomsday scenarios at us. because while we know these global trends, and i'm sure all 3 of us are on the same page with wanting to emphasize the slowing pace of growth in population aging. i know that for some people it can feel really different. and that's because that 8000000000 number disguised as the diversity of trends around the world. and we've really never been so far apart and terms of our birth and death and, and even migration trends. and so, you know, there are areas in the world where fertility is still very high population growth

as high people feel the environmental strains that come from a very basic relationship between people and the environment around them. so for me, find my, come in here, i think also one of the genes that we would need to pay attention to is the understand the, the, and been masks a huge diversity that we currently experience across different parts of the world. ah, just just yet i've known we have more than 40 countries, uncovered trees that are experiencing, publish on decline on all traditional preop for yoko mission and focus on rugby, it poplars. shame growth has clouded dark, thinking to clearly understand the implications of these divergent trends that we are seeing around the world. that there are, as many countries have been published on decline and it will continue to be an issue going forward, slip to the controversial grow. i don't want to dimensional foot account is going

to think of as a couple of examples of the countries where that population is going dal. oh, if you think, for instance, a place like a false korea, it's population. historically i shifted june 1000000. if this projected to be 24000000 by, well 2100. last time south korea was in the 24000000 people was in the 50s. so it is a massive change that will be. busy occurring in a number of countries by 2015 more than a few countries on territories will be experiencing, publish and decline. right, so i say to 90 to hurley, interesting, when we think about the um you know, putting juxtaposing south korea's change over time with some of the places where population is still growing. because on the flip side of that, there 8 countries in the world that will account for more than half of world population growth between now and 2050. and one of those is egypt, which, you know, egypt leadership had famously compared egypt population to south korea as many decades ago and,

and are in 2008. and had noted that many decades ago both countries had similar population sizes. and then that just totally went into different directions. after that i think that the diversity that the both jennifer and alex are, are emphasizing it's like, hugely important. i think it's really part of the big story for the 1000000000 is we're so diverse. and another example of that is that europe, on, after like the median age in europe, is close to $4541.00 and a half. the median age and her in africa is 17. and, and so it's not just the pace of growth is really different in these countries, but we have very different age structures. so you know, you, you want to understand and kind of create a global community. but we're looking at governments and countries here that are dealing with very different populations in terms of age. and so the thinking may be different and we, that's going to text them, diplomacy,

and some effort between us to, to have a more unified response to global crises. i want to bring a new voice into our conversation, and this is a professor of global development at cornell university. alex, i'm going to play this comment for you. i'd really be interested on what you take the idea next. the key is paul faith. a 1000000000 population is an important milestone, but what it means is going to vary quite a bit across countries. in developing regions where population is still throwing. one main concern is going to be inequality. the paraphrase tend to decline in most of african countries from the top down. and what that means is you have an increasing concentration of agility among the poor. and at a time when the level of education, that rising, where the quality of education in the course of education is rising. what that means is that you're going to have increasing differences in the educational

opportunities that are available to children in the upper tier of the income distribution compared to children who come from families that are poor. thanks tony. i think there are a couple of things to break down here in what buffet indicates, that the 1st is if you look at the countries where fidelity is still very high, women us to have in many children like 4 fi, 6 in the country, like near j r d r can go on mildly, where their rate of growth of the population is a 3 percent or more. it means that the population is doubling every 20 years or so in this year. actually every 18 years, india or congress about every 21 years. so within that period, it is very difficult, nearly impossible for that country to be able to double the investment they're

making in health, education, nutrition, jobs, all the things that constitutes well being. and whom am i, in professing human, are capacity and, and, and, and those improvements. so induct instance, then you, it is difficult to maintain the quality of life as it is a you need to be able to double those investments and capacity over the shock period of time than it in the current levels of fin, adequate coverage of health and education and all that, so that's the problem. the other big challenge, i think when people think about it 1000000000 is the fact that there is a significant shift and we had these populations are based on look at it. currently, africa accounts for about 18 percent of the global population i is projected to be about 2425 percent by 2050 and 46 percent by 2100. so when you look at, that's oh statistic and you didn't think about it all,

nearly one in 2 people in the world would be in africa. what does that mean for global governance and for equity, and for all of and how can excellent alex, what does that, what does that mean? does that mean that africa will be the most powerful continent in the world? well, it will mean different case for different people. and again, for me, i say it's not a question of whether we are for the normal 4600000000, or 6000000000 africans is the question of what quality of people eyes. i did all the educated how deep productive citizens are sick and on the educated i'm an for. and so that really matches. and for me that wind about countries, it's very high rates of growth of the pop mission currently is the ability to make the necessary investments in improving human quality would be constrained by the rate of growth i hopeless shot, i say hi alex i, he, that's,

there's so much we can talk about just on the continent of africa. i'm going to push on that just a little bit because if we know our population is growing, we know this is happening, planning an oven. paling is going to be absolutely critical. rachel, i want you said you said rubbing can cause robin king has a thought and then build off. robin's thought a she is been planning should be more participatory with citizens of different ages, social groups, ethnicities in different geographic locations within the city. so that everyone together can create a vision of what they want the city be tomorrow to generations from now. 5 generations from now is there been planning deals with infrastructure that's going to last a very long time beyond the generations of, of the folks that are involved in it right now. in addition, the process should help us educate each other about what sustainable consumption patterns really are, so that we can leave the planet better for future generations. well,

she's right that there needs to be more collected planning but, but even to plan from a single government, you've got to have an excellent data and part of why we push the census and we need to make these, you know, population. and since it's happening, happening around the world is because, you know, governments absolutely need to be able to project to what is coming in the next 23 decades. there was a great start from, from, or frightening step from the world bank. i came across recently and had said, goodness that something like across the continent of africa. you know, the infrastructure for education at the moment can only accommodate about 40 percent of school age children. and as alex's, we have more and more children who will be coming in in the region. so, you know, investment is crucial. urban ization is happening quickly. we need excellent data, we need planning, we need a participatory planning, and we need

a global engagement. it's true, it's going to be very, very difficult for governments to do this alone. i am, but if cold at be in the field of demography though, i mean i'm sure raphael, alec feel the same way. we have a we stand out among the trends because we can see the future and other people can't. and it's because so many people of the future are already born. so when you think about the planning that needs to happen, i totally agree with rachel that we need more data. but the good news is, it's not as if we have no idea how many kindergarten classrooms will need and for years how many seats on that. so we, knowing, as we get up there today at, but all various governments in various communities, are they planning, knowing that you're right. i didn't think of it like that. well, she got children in kindergarten or nursed real genius school. you know what, what they're gonna need over their life time. are you seeing that because you may won't be out to see the future, but you can also see disaster coming to. you can,

i mean that, you know, and, and i think this is where i am, i always empathize to people that the same population trends in 2 different countries can look completely different. so you know, a couple of communities that i know that are planning for this is the national security community. they can look at those kindergarten classroom today and think about their potential recruiting pool for the military. you know, in just 15 years or so. so, you know, they're well aware of this and they take a long view on things anyway, but if we look at something like social security, now we don't exactly know what age people will retire. that people might think that they did. it differs widely around the world that the average age of workforce exit and france is 61 years. but in japan, it's 71 years. and so, you know, we can differ even among old countries. and so some of these rules of the game or institutions like in a democracy, it's really hard to change policy because voters say, yeah, no thanks, we're not doing that. but in, in countries that are aging,

but they don't necessarily give the people voice and changing policy. you actually might see retirement policies and ages increased much faster. or i guess i'm gonna also do something valuable. may alex if, if, if i may, because i want to bring in our audience hill watching, because often they have misconceptions about what the population growth means. and i'm going to give you each 30 seconds to answer question like this. all right, so how many people can the of sustain alex don't take that one. thank you. i don't welcome is not a simple answer. yes, it's not a function of the behavior of the people that are on a mission saying to us is different from measure. it depends on our consumption patterns. it depends on our productivity. as a group on the spot does matter, i think with increase in quality,

it makes it how that the sauce 10 and much larger population. but if we have it, it was the site in many ways we can support a whole lot long. a summer's asked fest the world is over populated or says things will never get better. it's too late. rachel instant, reaction. not at all. not at all. 8000000000 people's 8000000000, potentially brilliant new ideas that will increase food production that will figure out new very cool ways for people to learn on the internet that will think about, you know, ways to multiply the number of teachers. it's, i'm much more optimistic, right? this this, this is paul on, on youtube is watching us right now. jennifer poll says that government planning question mark. those individuals who make up government can't see beyond the next election cynicism from the chief who would have thought it. i actually don't disagree with paul. is that my husband paul a yes. and that's

why i tend to be i'm also an optimist in general. but if there's anywhere that the pessimism starts to sneak and it actually is when we think about democracy and how hard it is to change policy now. and that is because elected leaders have the short term views. however, i will say that even something simple like just to stick on retirement for a 2nd because it really does matter. official retirement age is one thing, but there are all sorts of rules. a whole rainbow rules around ways that people are able to exit the workforce and sometimes you can get some play at the margins that make a big difference in the overall trend. let's just have a look at what riah added to our conversation. she joined us a little bit earlier on and, and told us this, and we're looking at managing and impact. 8000000000 people have this population grows, leads to the mind, hold on to food and energy increase. so this naturally means that greenhouse

gas emissions will increase as well, but it won't be high, particularly if the level of consumption is kit, say at the naval low income countries today. so that you have a sion and climate change is likely to be true and creams income live rather than publish. think what, why is it there was telling a lot of the angst in our audience and an around the world where people are thinking the so many of us on this of how can the of possibly sustain it. i am going to look ahead now to 2050 and where the population will be in 2050 and you are well ahead of me. so let's do this together. guess estimated, well population by 2050 will be 9700000000. and then what part of the world will see the biggest growth well, across the african continent, expected to contribute more than half of this population increase. but populations

of $61.00 countries are projected to decrease by one percent or more. and then here's the good news. we don't really talk about the good news so much. it's important. average global life span by 2050. when increased to around 77.2 years, which is up about 4 years from where it is currently. and jennifer, this is, this is the good news of this. 8000000000 is the reason why there are so many people in the us is because we're healthier and living longer as well as babies being born in some parts of the world. that that's more than one thing happening here. that we should be celebrating that while we're living so long and we should be celebrating population aging. i mean, i think there's a tendency to whatever the trend is, people think, well that's just bad news. yeah, there are times in history. there are too many people and then there are times or to few people. it's like goldilocks on the port it's. it's never just right. so

when i see numbers about population aging, i think how fantastic women and partners are able to choose how many children they want, they're able to act on that. it is generally an indicator that there is widespread education. that quality of life is high and that people are living longer. well, let's not be upset about that, especially when we've wrung our hands over high fertility for decades. well, now we're saying wait, there's too many people. and i think also we have to be careful because one thing that has come up so far is who gets blamed for all of this. it's typically women. the women are having too many or too few children. so when people say over population, i think they want to say it's those women over there who are having too many children, and they don't think about their own role in their own consumption and their lifestyles. that a some yeah i do, i do want to, can i jump in yet though for that you know, i just want to jump in an in, in, in the comment that let's remember that there are still millions of women who don't

have access to modern contraception. who don't have access to still primary education, who if they get pregnant at 14 or 15, are not able to finish school. so we do still have quite a bit of work to do in terms of assuring as jennifer was sort of just alluding to, we want to have a world where everybody can choose the number in the timing of children. there's no question that's good for kids. it's good for communities it's, it's good for everyone. yeah. but, but it isn't the case at this juncture. still we have, you know, something in the round at like 200000000 people who still don't have full access to reproductive rights. i chose erotic appointments, but no one else facing tackle the station and that is florence. his voice, who ends on the point that you just made him. our population continues to grow by 8000000 people pyre. we should be consent, climate change, deforestation, water and food shortages pollution as well as boat, a varsity loss,

which will never talk enough about our all becoming difficult to manage with our ever increasing numbers. additionally, that people were affected the most by brewing population or the young girls and women was possibly the child barrows unco drawers. can we do anything above this? yes, we can bring the numbers down. we can do positive, ethical, as well as cost effective things that can benefit human beings, as well as tech pressure of our planet is, is such a huge topic. i would happy speak to rachel and jennifer and alex where another hour, i don't have that ties. i just have time to say thank you so much for helping us understand what 8000000000 people on the earth actually means in reality. thank you for joining our conversation today. i think next time, take ah, on counting the cost, what can we expect in 20? 23 is a global recession, inevitable. china newfound did 0. call it policy where the world's 2nd largest

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