by rogue secured to operate his officers and local communities working together the because of failure of the, the issue ah, corruption issues with dean dessie stem ah, on the issue of fall punishment, that is not as added on to his rule will participate in oil taft. the loss of all revenue has forced the government to take on more borrowing to finance its needs. and that is dangerous to the entire country, the investment climate in nigeria, and a viability of our government. it is, it's considered consistently when to weaken the god meant ability to perform. nigeria has constructed local security agencies to secure pipelines. i revamped a task force to tackle all fluffed, but many analisia can only be stopped by tackling corruption and effectively managing the production and supply of oil. how many degrees al jazeera, the niger delta? ah,

this is al jazeera, these are the top stories. russia says $63.00, but soldiers were killed in ukrainian rocket attack on their barracks and the eastern done yet screeching. it's a rare acknowledgment of casualties by moscow. it cranes, military is taken responsibility for the strike. yes, give it as room am lanes, drama gushes. dude, act them if they are the me, the key regime targeted a temporary deployment point of one of the units of the russian armed forces near the settlement of mchuga in the de nest people's republic. with 6 rockets of us made high must multiple rocket launchers, other russian air defense systems, shot down to hammers. rockets as a result of the strike of 4 missiles with high explosive warhead as a temporary diploma pointer. 63 russian service men were killed him over to palestinians have died and fighting sponsor by the israeli demolition of homes in the occupied westbank. the houses belong to the families of to palestinians accused

of killing and israeli officer. last year, thousands of brazilians have been lining up in the city of santos, to pay their respects to pelley who died on thursday. at the age of $82.00, the football legend started his career better than the cities holding a 24 hour wake at the vila bermuda stadium. for president jenny, in montana, was among the 1st to arrive, and he called on all member countries to pay tribute. ramos ha, ha, ha billiard i thought we are going to ask all federations all over the world. 211 countries. do name a stadium in every country in the world after pele up i used them because i think that youth all over the warranty future generations have to no one to remember who pele was. and the joy that police brought to the vote. joyce, norway has said a record for electric car sales. new figures show almost 80 percent of new cars registered last year were battery powered. the government once all new cars to be electric within 2 years. those are the headlines. the news is going to continue

here on al jazeera, after counting the cost by he came from a wealthy background in paris and became an artist against his family's wishes. he went on to bring a fresh perspective to orient, to lift painting, falling in love with sahara and culture making of julia, his home and converted to islam. of g 0 world tells the story of nasty dean denise and his unique i to stick work. the french oriental is anal to 0. ah, i flew. i'm fully back to bo, this is counting the cost on al jazeera this week. the weakest economic growth

since 2001 financial institutions, one of a global recession in 2023. we look at the reasons why and ask, is it inevitable own, for this week after nearly 3 years? waging ease is covered. 19 restrictions. can china recovery in 2023, and how would it impact the global economy? and turbulent times, the head for countries in africa and latin america. can they whether the storm ah, welcome to the special edition of counting the cost where we're looking at what lies ahead for the global economy in 2023. 1 word that has caught everyone's attention this year is inflation. it's been a major concern for billions of people around the world and will remain so in 2023 as the international monetary fund and the world bank have wards. so when will inflation subsides? it will likely be another couple of years before prices come down from the highs

they've reached this year. with so many factors at play from central banks, hiking rates, to extreme weather events, the energy crisis and the war in ukraine. it's complicated to say the least. so is a recession looming in 2023 economies say it's too early to tell if we are technically in a global economic slowdown, but it will certainly feel like it. a dire warning from the i m f. is that the worst is yet to come? all around the world, every day, goods and services are becoming more expensive, rising cost or making life more difficult for many people who are struggling to buy groceries. pay their bills and fill up their tanks at fuel stations. according to the mass, global inflation is forecast to decline from this year. staggering 8.8 percent to 6.5 percent in 2023. while total output is expected to slow to to point 7 percent in 2023 from 3.2 percent. this year,

the latest figures from china is national bureau statistics show the cobra 19 battered economies slammed in november before authorities east severe pandemic restrictions. growth in factory output last month slow to half of october's rate, while retail sales contracted for a 2nd consecutive months. property investment in the world's 2nd largest economy found to its lowest in more than 2 decades, and unemployment is at its highest in 6 months. but the economy is say, china will rebound in 2023. they're expecting growth of 4.5 percent up from this years. 3 percent countries in latin america and in africa are in for a shock. most of the economies are major commodity exported and the global slowdown will result in weaker demand. the challenging market conditions come as the region is still grappling with the economic fall out from the pandemic and knock on effects of rushes. busy war in ukraine, economies expects rove in latin america to half from 3 percent this year,

to 1.4 percent in 2023. africa, on the other hand, is likely to avoid a major economic downturn, despite extreme weather patterns. the threat of food insecurity caused by conflicts any heavy burden of debt. so the thing economies are expected to hold steady both north africa and sub saharan africa are forecast to go 3.2 percent next year. so what can we expect from 2023. let us bring in our panel of experts to give us some insight into the year ahead. joining us from seattle in washington in the us, alex capri research fellow at the henry foundation and lecture at the end us business school from london gregor o in chief economist at global council. and from malaga mariano machado, principal analyst for the americas at various maple craft. thank you all for being with us on counting the cost. thank you so much for your insights in advance. let

me start with you alex. in seattle, china. finally loosening is covered 19 policies. will this help provide a sparky thing for an economy? well, i think china has a lot to contend with. still are we see the property in the housing market issues? i think overarching lee, the geopolitical issues with the united states and the west in particular when it comes to supply chains. certainly strategic supply chains in areas such as semiconductors and other technology areas. so the easing of the, of the covered restrictions are, are going to have to go quite a long way and people are going to have to see that there is no growth. there's more progress, but china will have to contend with those other overarching issues as well. right, and we will be looking at some of the aspects that you mentioned there more closely the property market, the geopolitical tensions with the us. but i wanted to ask you, alex, you know,

many economists and yourself included saying that this reopening will be bumpy and may be painful for china with china playing such a pivotal role in the global supply chains. how do you see the global economy being impacted with this loosening of the covey? 19 policies? well, you know, the global economy is really facing a global, a storm if you will, a perfect storm and that is, it's, it's, it's not just your politics, but it's also coming to terms with de carbon ization and climate change. there still are issues in the post cobit era, about single source supply chains coming out of china. and there is a conscious effort to diversify those supply chains and to continue to diversify. so even though china has loosened those restrictions, the, the focus on diversification restructuring of strategic supply chains will continue . all right, gregory gregory, sorry, let me come to you and talk about the u. s. if you talk about china,

obviously the u. s. also has to be looked at very closely and the u. s. is just probably surprisingly low a consumer price index as 7 point one percent rather than the 3.7 percent that economists were expecting. do you think the federal reserve, the u. s. federal reserve is starting finally to, to have a firm grip on inflation. yes. well consigned, but the inflation number a spoiling, i think, what is also reassuring the court inflation also appears to be relatively under control. we obviously saw 50 basis points increase and interest rates also interesting here with your own pile you have to see he was sick knowing of course that the feds will be very watchful about inflationary pressures and the us and, but i think also did listen carefully to what he said, it does appear because it piece of pipe will slow and the us with interest

a peek at some point. actually, greg, before i go to to mariano, what about global inflation? do you expect that to, to stabilize? well, google lation will be glides if for no other reason than simple arithmetic. the annual inflation headlined inflation rate that most people focus on. that's a measure. prices have increased the cost of the past year. and of course, a lot this has been driven by higher energy at prices and higher prices, mostly higher energy prices and a big spike in energy prices, least the 1st spike in energy prices came back year ago. so just by virtue of the fact that those are price increases for life of the calculation, that means that headline inflation will fall. what policy makers focus more on toward inflation and that we're moving to the problem of inflation only disappear

slowly as policy makers from the focus on the challenge. mariana, let me come tonight. as i said, 9, production african and latin american economies are expected to face turbulent times in 2023. talk to us about the internal and external chunks that are likely to undermine are these 2 region is growth prospects? that is an excellent question and thank you for having us today and actually are day to show those out. during 2022, we saw the largest jump in terms of countries that increase the risk for civil unrest in both regions. you're mentioned specifically, and we are expecting a group of nearly 40 countries. 3rd are suffering an uptick and in the probability of civil commotion by march 23. and the underlying factors in this case in our views are 2. the 1st one is of course inflation, and as my colleagues were saying, we are still undergoing discussions in the regions about the effectiveness of monetary policy to basically deal with what are rather inform on economies in which

central banks have less capacity to operate on the drivers of this trends, and the 2nd is, and this is a very interesting and important point for in america, in particular, is the duty off institutional mechanisms to funnel discontent, sustained discontent. given the 2 trends are continuously to be colliding, we expect the 20th. we outlook to be blake. yeah. along with that. yeah. and social discontent could be a key factor here, looking at latin america more specifically, brazil. and we've seen this new shift to the left. the so called new pink tied in brazil for example, with a return of lula to power i, brazil's government has got it's 2023, g d p growth forecasts are 2 point one percent. and the new president, it seems, may need more than $39000000000.00 in extra government spending, which is going to be a huge challenge. william, isn't it exactly like that? and it's very interesting because as you mentioned, we are witnessing what appears to be is now confirm my return of,

well we can call the bing type. but unlike the ping tide of the early 2 thousands where you see a massive differences between the 2 of them, one of them, key one, it's ah, the ability of the groups that are reaching office now. and the cohesion of those groups and secondary social patients. so basically, even for a comeback or such as lula, which is not the only one in the region, but could be the most of stanish al, in terms of there are standing political come back, he just bought during this past 2 years, patient is running very low, in the case in brazil, and the ability to the blow policy and the ability to control that spend and to ensure all of the promises he had has made during the campaign, remains to be. so do you think he can fulfill his electoral promise as of lifting people out of probably, well i think is gonna be central to his policy agenda. but the thing is, unlike his previous to our presidential inclinations this time around the p t. his bar to the workers party, place a premise into about his role if you want to,

you know, one among many in a big, big coalition that hit required to actually achieve power. and based on the results of the election and a very, a diverse congressional setting, i think this will be a r, r, quickbook or situation. every bill, every reform, every decision will need to be negotiated. so we will need some time to see how that unfolds. all right, alix, that may come tina, and let's talk about the us china relationship. because we've seen that the u. s. restricting china's access to technology a capital markets, as well as u. s. companies to invest their ability to invest in advance technology in china. what impact as it had not just in the high tech sector in china, but also in the us? well, it's actually spawned. i'm a bit of a, of a technology investment surge in the us. so the, the, the semiconductor industry association just reported that since august, when the chips and science act was essentially enacted $280000000000.00 of

investment towards technology investment innovation. the private sector. since the enact mate of chips has invested some $200000000000.00 just towards just towards fabrication. so foundry related activities regarding semiconductors. okay. and it's, it's a company not just in arizona or texas or silicon valley, it's happening and in lesser known parts of the country, primarily through public, private partnerships. so. so i do expect in 2023 to see an increase in public private partnerships governments working with private industry and increasingly, academia and research institutions to, to basically pursue economic growth. ok. so want to pursue economic growth. let me come to you now. we've talked about the us china relationship. we've looked at latin america. let's talk to you about europe and the energy crisis there,

which we've seen, has been a big issue this year. and this energy crisis expected will cause a minute recession in europe. what do you think this will mean 1st, for the european central bank, banks fight against inflation in 2023. think most european economies will still grow. in 2023 family. some economies are likely to see a recession amongst the larger economies due to germany, a most likely to see a recession in germany. that is very directly related to vantage situation. industrial production in germany's be carved by higher energy prices, mccade the there are a number of factors that play political uncertainty impact also on business investments. other economies, me also slip into this nation, swedish economy is one that is perhaps on the margins the european central bank is

trying to ensure that it addresses the inflation problem, the ablation problem in the years on it's not as bass jones quote, inflation and headline inflation as it is, the us are in the u. k. an interest rate for the rise, the sep will most likely raise rates by another 50 basis points to the e. c. p. also be the challenge of as it reduce the size of the balance sheets begins to unwind large accumulation about taking place in several years as part of this quantity visa program. and also need to be careful attention to what happens to the cost of parental rights across the euro area for now. that looks like a manageable task, but it certainly complicates the monetary policy challenge what would be fixed. what about greg or the scramble for gas? do you think it will be worse in 20?

$23.00. i think so far. the also has seen gas storage levels that reasonably comfortable levels in europe. that reflects relatively miles early. awesome. i think the challenge will be maybe not so much what happens this year and summer, but what happens next year? you're trying to manage gas storage levels, but will depends on the weather. i can, i can tell you that right now it's betty colds london and much of europe right out of the fact let me just one very notable success november the average energy demand is by the 24 percent compared to the previous 5. that's quite a remarkable effort. johnson energy demands reduction. right mariano,

that the latin america region has perhaps been the biggest beneficiary in the search of energy prices because of the war in ukraine. is that still going to be the case? you think in 20? $23.00. what, what are the key trends in terms of commodities for the latin america region? there is an extremely interesting question because it speaks of a to trend a to fall to trend. we're seen in the region, short term, the demands for our non renewable energy sources as you just were saying. as a result of the conflict. ukraine er benefit in most of their, our producers, both private and public and latin american space. among them there makes bit throat ass and other players, but at the same time we're seen as beyond that short term opportunity. we're seeing a long term development trend in terms of everything that is needed for the energy transmission as a way, as a way to just move away from fossil fuels. so the question now is, how long this window of opportunity for short term demands will persist? and if certain player, such as argentina, and example, as an amazing player in terms of energy, will be able to a bigger, bigger, right,

at that trend. and 2nd to rad, if countries are like other opportunities will be able to seize the opportunity in relation to commodities, need to for the energy position in general. now mariani talked there about argentina, and i do want to find out more about our join tina. and it's debt, of course it's reach a deal to restructure at the $1970000000.00 debt. it goes to the paris club. do you think this is a good deal for argentina and can it overcome its debt problems? i had of the 2023 elections. we just take a step back here and just recap the light. they list late a set of events including the one that you mentioned poly. they are to argentina, reach an agreement with private ball holders by itself are, did you know, reach an agreement with ours club and also with the i m f. but at the same time, the court administration has taken the current deb levels to peak right. a few months ago in october, middle to $400000000000.00 the highest mark ever in the country. ah, external that so what we're seeing now here is our rather control situation of the external front, but not because of resolution,

but because of the postponement of payments and somewhat worried where some people are included as are worry about the domestic market. that because also there has been dispos spoke meant and what we're seeing now, although there are have been successes in terms of the, of, of seizing issuance and in local market. we're seeing this snowballing chances of red offer of favor resolution before the 2023 over election are slim, but who will let me time to see how that unfolds. they may take time to see if the agent is able to to resolve this. that issue alex, china also has a debt problem at the debt written property sector. will the property market won't be over, you think in 2023? no, i think this is a systemic issue that's been part of the, you know, the communist parties growth plan, right. just billed billed bill built and so the over capacity issues i think will continue not just in the property market, but in other areas as well. i mean,

we've seen over capacity in steel for example. and so this is definitely a part of a much wider systemic issue, i think for the chinese economy gregor, another big issue this year was of course crypto currencies. and as 2023 comes to an end crypto currency traitors worldwide. having really a rough time. we've seen the collapse of f d x, for example, crypto currency dropping by more than 60 percent in 2022. what's next? do you think full capital currencies in 20? 23. what does the future look like? i think what's probably regulation more regulation number reasons why that look to happen. partly because the, the whether or not national regulators really have a monday to regulate trip. so i've been unclear and many regulators have been kind of slow to get into the ads. but i think we're at the actually showing is that

many trip so can see if it just too big to ignore. the regulation extends just beyond the set of simple, straight proverbs aspects around money laundry, which is complicated enough, but that is something you can regulate already has a receipt for the currencies as to where we're going to see that regulatory premise of trip. so it's been quite a bit alex feel far about the future of crypto currency. yeah, i just don't see it having a particularly bright future. you know, i think the, the gregor mentioned regulation. i think the problem with crypto is it's very, very hard to regulate. it's very difficult to regulate just by its nature. so i, you know, as an investments are sort of a holding investments in an option. yes. i, you know, people will continue to invest in it. i it, it will probably, you know,

stay in the portfolios of larger investors. ok, where i see a digital currency going and, and crypto is not, it is not a currency. i should say. i'm not a viable currency in my opinion, but, but central bank act did will currencies, i think, will be something that we'll see more interest in in 2023. i, we've just got a few minutes left on the show and i'll ask you for a final word about your, your outlook, the big picture for 2023. but i want to ask you 1st, ah, in mariano, in malaga, about the outlook traffic in economy in 2023, we've seen a handful of nations defaulting on our dest eye exam. be out ganeth currency. the city had its worst perform and say in 2022. what is the outlook for these african economies? and are they going to be able to organize reorganized a local debt? does a very interesting question and actually one factor we need to take in mind when we remind me to take a step back and look at cow, ah, the situation of this concrete,

what represents for different international stakeholders that could help with those situations such as the math such as the world bang rothermel to laterals because there seems to be, ah, not so tacit, but rather explicit of women that are across emerging markets in kind of the african nations. but also latin america. there is the need to sustain economies to allow for, for economic recovery to just continue regardless of this of the challenges of apache economic recovery from one to, to we expect this mixture of, in a domestic and ability. i mean, national decision to sustain this economy. gregory, your thoughts about the outlook for african economies in 2023. clearly the cobra tango, there are countries suffering from higher energy prices that are countries suffering from a strong dollar higher interest rates. so yeah, i think there are number of countries that have a problem and those problems are likely to come to the for next year we already got which but and i just recently the debt to g d, p,

and present that they will need to have that restructuring, i think we'll see more about the threat 3 because some countries are doing well and they are the commodity courses we've got a minute left on the show. so i want now a quick prediction from all 3 of you on what will the comic landscape in 2023 look like at the end of 2023. alex, let me start with you in just a few seconds. i think it will of fragment continue to fragment from a supply chain perspective. and the supply chains will break into 3 areas, strategic sensitive supply chains, which will fragment a middle gray zone that features dual use technologies. and which of course, spill over into all other industries, and then sort of another band of innocuous stuff that nobody really cares about. so it's going to be complicated. alright, complicated, mariana, your thoughts? we are still facing subdue demand. we will need to see how that goes in the global level below. so we need to see

a lot of political and technical decisions on behalf of, of emerging markets when it comes to using the opportunities or the landscape. he's presenting especially in developing certain commodities for the transition. right, greg? or in london, you have the final word. what will be rec landscape looked like towards the end of 2023. so inflation sure. interest rates, autonomy, pine, and even more uneven for growth and fragmentation, i think that's absolutely right, but not just apply to policy as well. and i think the next scott, what's i'm talking about china, even though we hopped on are sure today, gentlemen, thank you so very much for your insights. it was great to hear your thoughts about be your head in the world of business. thank you. gregor erwin. i alex capri and mariano machado, thank you once again for being on counting the cost and barriers our show for this week. get in touch with us by tweeting me actually by e j e. and do use the hash tag a j, c, c, c. when you do that or drop us an email,

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on al jazeera. we understand the differences and similarities of culture across the world. so no matter why you call hand out 0 will bring you the news and current affairs that matter. to you, al jazeera ah no baptism. doha, the top stories and all 0. russia says $63.00 of its soldiers were killed in a ukrainian rocket attack on their barracks and the eastern done yet, screech, and it's one of the few times that rushes admitted to casualties in the war. ukraine's military is taken responsibility, but the strike yes. give it assume um when you struggle darcia stood out to them as many of them in the keep regime. ta.