the people arriving illegally in the block, the e u border agency, front tech says more than a 120000 to asylum seekers and migrants crossed into the e. u via the so called western balkans route. in 2022. that 70 percent more than the previous year and the highest number since 2016. the increase says this migration expert is partly due to deteriorating conditions for asylum seekers in greece and turkey. and the fallout from the cove it crisis during the panoramic. the border where coal arizola well has slowed down the more lands and then that, that sir, ah, right up again, i'll during this urine, this ashley, the 1st 9 months there is been an increase of this number. albanians never fully recovered from decades under communist rule. poverty and corruption are wide spread and many people, my grace abroad for opportunities. for now the increase in asylum seekers passing through the country hasn't cause much public concern. perhaps because albanians

often understand why some people like yusef feel they have to leave home. natasha butler al jazeera, tirana albania. ah . this is al jazeera, these are the top stories in the us republican. the kevin mccarthy has again lost in the 6th round of his voting in his bid to become speak of the house of representatives. a 7th vote will be held in the coming hours. for the 2nd day, the republicans failed to convince his part of the given the top job, about 20 hard liners refused to support any show from engine reports from capitol hill. well, that has been some progress. unfortunately for kevin mccarthy, it has been negative progress yesterday, or he had 19 votes against him. then by the end of the day was 20. now it's $21.00 . and he is significantly far from the $218.00 votes. he needs to become

elected speaker. the republican party is in disarray right now. they want to govern, but they can't get out of their own way enough in order to take the 1st step. israel's new government has on bell plans for an overhaul. the justice system was short, significantly weak, and the supreme court critics say, we'll give at benjamin netanyahu government the power to pass laws. the court themes unconstitutional. china is being accused of giving. an inaccurate picture of the extent of its coven 19 outbreak is top. scientists have given information to un officials, but w h o, it says beijing is under representing fatalities with events are protesting for 6 consecutive dana santa cruz region against the arrest of local government. lewis, fernandez camacho, he's charged with leading a coup against socialists that ever morality in 2019 charges he denies from neighboring peruse. supporters of former president federal cristilla have renewed

jose, softer to week, was on tuesday. conservative groups held a march for peace after almost 2 dozen people were killed in violent process before christmas left his former present castillo was aston, detained. does he try to illegally dissolve congress last month? and politicians have begun holding campaign rallies in nigeria, head of next month's general election. the main concern among voters is the cost to live in crisis and worsening security. there's all the headlines. news continues aaron altos thereafter. people in power to stay with us. in depth analysis of the days headlines from around the world, whatever it did was i said to them they have to find because they didn't aid wouldn't get in. frank assessments. do you think diploma thumbs up, john, so i'm not very optimistic about any kind of negotiation informed opinions. everybody tweets. everybody's on tick, tock, tick, tock doesn't vote. you have for the winter,

it's going to be helpful holder. pretty soon. insight story on al jazeera i flew, i'm fully back to bo, this is counting the cost on al jazeera this week. the weakest economic growth since 2001 financial institutions, one of a global recession in 2023. we look at the reasons why and ask, is it inevitable own, for this week after nearly 3 years? waging ease is covered. 19 restrictions. can china recovery in 2023, and how would it impact the global economy? and turbulent times a head for countries in africa and latin america. can they whether the storm ah,

welcome to this special edition of counting the cost where we're looking at what lies ahead for the global economy in 2023. 1 word that has caught everyone's attention this year is inflation. it's been a major concern for billions of people around the world and will remain so in 2023 as the international monetary fund and the world bank have warned. so when will inflation subsides? it will likely be another couple of years before prices come down from the highs they've reached this year. with so many factors that play from central banks, hiking rates, to extreme weather events, the energy crisis and the war in ukraine. it's complicated to say the least. so is a recession looming in 2023. economy is say, it's too early to tell if we are technically in a global economic slowdown, but it will certainly feel like it a die. a warning from the i m f. is that the worst is yet to come all around the

world. every day, good vending services are becoming more expensive, rising cost or making life more difficult for many people who are struggling to buy groceries. pay their bills and fill up their tanks at fuel stations. according to the mass, global inflation is forecast to decline from this year. staggering 8.8 percent to 6.5 percent in 2023 y. total output is expected to slow to to point 7 percent in 2023 from 3.2 percent. this year, the latest figures from china is national bureau statistics show the cobra 19 battered economy slammed in november before authorities east via pandemic restrictions. growth in factory output last month slow to half of october's rate, while retail sales contracted for a 2nd consecutive months. property investment in the world's 2nd largest economy found to its lowest in more than 2 decades, and unemployment is at its highest in 6 months. but the economy is say, china will rebound in 2023. they're expecting growth of 4.5 percent up from this

years. 3 percent countries in latin america and in africa are in for a shock. most of the economies are major commodity exported and the global slowdown will result in weaker demand. the challenging market conditions come as the region is still grappling with the economic fall out from the pandemic and knock on effects of rushes. busy war in ukraine, economies expects rove in latin america to half from 3 percent this year, to 1.4 percent in 2023. africa, on the other hand, is likely to avoid a major economic downturn, despite extreme weather patterns. the threat of food insecurity caused by conflict, any heavy burden of debt. so the thing economies are expected to hold steady both north africa and sub saharan africa are forecast to go 3.2 percent next year. so what can we expect from 2023. let us bring in our panel of experts to give us some

insight into the year ahead. joining us from seattle in washington in the us, alex capri research fellow at the henry foundation and lecture at the end us business school from london gregor o in chief economist at global council, and from malaga mariano machado, principal analyst for the americas at various maple craft thank you all for being with us on counting the crossed. thank you so much for your insights in advance. let me start with you alex. in seattle, china finally loosening is covered 19 policies. will this help provide a sparky thing for an economy? well, i think china has a lot to contend with, still, obviously that the property in the housing market issues. i think overarching lee, the geopolitical issues with the united states and the west in particular when it comes to supply chains. certainly strategic supply chains in areas such as semiconductors and other technology areas. so the, the easing of the,

of the covered restrictions are, are going to have to go quite a long way and people are going to have to see that there is no growth. there is more progress, but china will have to contend with those other overarching issues as well. right. and we will be looking at some of the aspects that you mentioned there more closely the property market, the geopolitical tensions with the us. but i wanted to ask you, alex, you know, many economists and yourself included seeing that this reopening will be bumpy and may be painful for china with china playing such a pivotal role in the global supply chains. how do you see the global economy being impacted with this loosening of the covey? 19 policies? well, you know, the global economy is really facing a global, a storm if you will, a perfect storm and that is, it's, it's, it's not just your politics, but it's all coming to terms with de carbon is ation and climate change. there

still are issues in the post cobit era, about single source supply chains coming out of china. and there is a conscious effort to diversify those supply chains and to continue to diversify. so even though china has loosened those restrictions, the, the focus on diversification restructuring of strategic supply chains will continue . all right, gregory gregory, sorry, let me come to you and talk about the u. s. if you talk about china, obviously the u. s. also has to be looked at very closely and the u. s. is just probably surprisingly low a consumer price index as 7 point one percent rather than the 3.7 percent that economists were expecting. do you think the federal reserve, the u. s. federal reserve is starting finally to, to have a firm grip on inflation. yes, it's a welcome sign, but the inflation number a while then, i think what is also reassuring the court inflation also appears to be relatively

under control. we obviously saw 50 basis points increase and interest rates was also interesting to hear with your own pile see he was sick knowing of course, that the feds will be very watchful about inflationary pressures in the us. but i think also he did listen carefully. it's what he said, it does appear. a piece of pipe will slow, and the us treasury peak at some point. next. greg, before i got him to mariana, what about global inflation? do you expect that to, to stabilize? well, google inflation will spiegel eyes if for no other reason than simple arithmetic, the annual inflation headline inflation rate, the most people focus on. that's a measure price increase the cost of the past year. and of course a lot this is being driven by higher energy at prices and higher prices. so it's

mostly higher energy prices. and the big spike in energy prices are leased the 1st spike in energy prices came back a year ago. so just by virtue of the fact that those are price increases before life of the calculation, that means that headline inflation will fall. what policy makers focus more on toward inflation and more slowly to the problem of inflation only disappear slowly as policymakers the from the focused on the challenge. mariana, let me come to united who said, 9, production african and latin american economies are expected to face turbulent times in 2023. talk to us about the internal and external sharks that are likely to undermine these 2 region is growth prospects and is an excellent question and thank you for having us today and actually are day to show those out during 2022. so the largest jump in terms of countries that increase the risk for civil unrest in both

regions. you're mentioned specifically and we are expecting a group of nearly 40 countries. 3rd, are suffering an uptick. and in the probability of civil commotion by march 23 and the underlying factors in this case in our views are to the 1st one is of course inflation and my colleagues were saying we are still undergoing discussions in the regions about the effectiveness of monetary policy to basically deal with what are rather informal economies in which central banks have less capacity to operate on the drivers of this trends. and the 2nd is, and this is a very interesting and important point for america, in particular, is the ability of institutional mechanisms to funnel discontent, sustain discontent. given the 2 trends are continuously to be colliding, we expect the $23.00 outlook to be oblique. allow me to one social discontent, could be he factor here, looking at latin america more specifically,

brazil. and we're seeing this new shift to the left. the so called new pink tied in brazil for example, with a return of lula to power. brazil's government has cut its 2023, g d p. grow forecasts are 2 point one percent. and the new president, it seems, may need more than $39000000000.00 in extra government spending, which is going to be a huge challenge. william, isn't it exactly like that. and it's very interesting because as you mentioned, we are witnessing what appears to be is now confirm my return of what we can call the bing type. but unlike the ping tide of the early 2 thousands where you see a massive differences between the 2 of them, one of them, key one, it's ah, the ability of the groups that are reaching office now. and the cohesion of those groups and secondary social patients. so basically, even for comeback are such as lula, which is not the only one in the region, but could be the most of spanish, shall in terms of there are stand in political come back. he just bought during this past 2 years, patient is running very low. in the case in brazil,

and the ability to the blow policy and the ability to control that spend and to ensure all of the promises he had has made during the campaign, remains to be. so do you think we can fulfill his electoral promise as of lifting people out of property? well, i think is gonna be central to his policy agenda, but the thing is, unlike his previous to our presidential inclinations this time around, the bt his bar to the workers party, place a premise into about his role if you want to, you know, one among many in a big, big coalition that hit required to actually achieve power and based on the results of the election and a very, a diverse congressional setting. i think this will be a, our quick book or situation. every bill, every reform, every decision will need to be negotiated. so we will need some time to see how that unfolds. all right, alix, that may come tina, and let's talk about the us china relationship. because we've seen that the u. s. restricting china's access to technology, a capital markets, as well as u. s. companies to invest their ability to invest in advance technology in china.

what impact as it had not just in the high tech sector in china, but also in the us? well, it's actually spawned a bit of a, of a technology investment surge in the us. so the, the, the semiconductor industry association just reported that since august when the chips and science act was essentially enacted. $280000000000.00 of investment towards technology investment innovation. the private sector. since the enactment of chips has invested some $200000000000.00 just towards just towards fabrication. so foundry related activities regarding semiconductors. okay. and it's, it's a company not just in arizona or texas or silicon valley, it's happening and in lesser known parts of the country, primarily through public, private partnerships. so. so i do expect in 2023 to see an

increase in public, private partnerships governments working with private industry and increasingly, academia and research institutions to, to basically pursue economic growth. okay. so want to pursue economic growth. let me come to you now. we've talked about the us china relationship. we've looked at latin america. let's talk to you about europe and the energy crisis there, which we've seen, has been a big issue this year. and the energy crisis expected will cause a mild recession in europe. what do you think this will mean 1st, for the european central bank, banks fight against inflation in 2023. i think most european economies will still grow in 2023 family. some economies are likely to see a recession amongst the larger economy due to germany, a most likely to see

a recession in germany. that is very directly related to vantage situation. industrial production in germany's be carved by higher energy prices, mccade the there are a number of factors that play political uncertainty impact also on business investments. other economies, me also slip into this nation, see that economy is one that is perhaps on the margins the european central bank is trying to ensure that it addresses the inflation problem, inflation problem in the years on it's not as bonds, just quote, inflation and headline inflation as it is, the us or the u. k. interest rate. for the rise, the sep will most likely raise rates by another 50 basis points. today the e. c. p also is the challenge of,

as it reduces the size of the balance sheets begins to unwind. large accumulation of assets taken place in several years as part of its quantity baez's program. and also need to be careful attention to what happens to the cost of borrowing for guns right across the euro area for now. that looks like a manageable task, but it certainly complicates the monetary policy challenge what would be fixed. what about greg or the scramble for gas? do you think it will be worse in 20? $23.00. i think so far. the also has seen gas storage levels that reasonably comfortable levels in europe. that reflects relatively miles early. awesome. i think the challenge will be maybe not so much what happens this year and summer, but what happens next year trying to get stories level to level depends on the

whether i can i can tell you that right now it's betty colds, london and much of europe right out of the fact, let me just one very notable success november the average energy demand is backed by that 24 percent compared to the previous 5 years. that's quite a remarkable effort. saves energy demands reduction, right mariano, that the latin america region has perhaps been the biggest beneficiary in the search of energy prices because of the war in ukraine. is that still going to be the case? you think in 20? $23.00. what. what are the key trends in terms of commodities for the latin america region? there is an extremely interesting question because it speaks of a to trend, a twofold, a trend we're seen in the region, short term demands for our non renewable energy sources as you just were saying. as a result of the conflict in ukraine, er benefit in most of their, our producers,

both private and public and latin american space. among them there makes bit throat ass and other players, but at the same time. but we're seen as beyond that short term opportunity. we're seeing a long term development trend in terms of everything that is needed for the energy transmission as a way, as a way to just move away from fossil fuels. so the question now is, how long this window of opportunity for a short term demands will persist? and if certain players such as argentina, and example as an amazing play in terms of energy will be able to a big, big a ride at that. the trend. and 2nd, trad, if countries are like other opportunities will be able to seize the opportunity in relation to commodities need to for the energy position in general that mariani talked there about argentina. and i do want to find out more about our join tina and it's debt. of course it's reach a deal to restructure at the $1970000000.00 debt. it goes to the paris club. do you think this is a good deal for argentina and can it overcome its debt problems? i had of the 2023 elections. we just take

a step back here and just recap the law. they live late, a set of events, including the one that you mentioned, folly the are to argentina, reach an agreement with private ball holders by itself. or does, you know, reach an agreement with artist globe and also with the i m f. but at the same time, the court administration has taken the current deb levels to peak right a few months ago in october, middle to $400000000000.00 the highest mark ever countries ah, external that. so what we're seeing now here is rather control situation of the external front, but not because of resolution, but because of the bas bowman of payments. and are somewhat worried where some people are included as are worry about the domestic market. that because also there has been dispos spoke meant and what we're seeing now, although there are have been successes in terms of the, of, of seizing issuance and in local market. we're seeing this snowballing chances of red offer of favor resolution before the 2023 over election are slim, but who will need time to see how that unfolds. they may take time to see if the

agent is able to to resolve this. that issue alex, china also has a debt problem at the debt written property sector. will the property market won't be over, you think in 2023? no, i think this is a systemic issue that's been part of the, you know, the communist parties growth plan, right. just billed billed bill built and so the over capacity issues i think will continue not just in the property market, but in other areas as well. i mean, we've seen over capacity in steel for example. and so this is definitely a part of a much wider systemic issue, i think for the chinese economy gregor, another big issue this year was of course crypto currencies. and as 2023 comes to an end crypto currency traitors worldwide. having really a rough time. we've seen the collapse of f t x, for example, crypto currency dropping by more than 60 percent in 20. 22. what's next?

thing for crypto currencies? in 20? 23. what does the future look like? i think what's probably regulation more regulation number reasons. why does it look to happen partly because the, the whether or not national regulators really have a monday to regulate trip. so i've been, i'm, and many regulators have been kind of slow to get into the act. but i think we're at the actually showing is that many trip so can see if it just too big to ignore. the regulation extends just beyond the set of simple, straight proverbs aspects around money laundry, which is complicated enough, but that is something you can regulate already has a receipt for currencies as to where we're going to see that regulatory premise of trip. so it's been quite a bit alex feel far about the future of scripture currency. yeah,

i just don't see it having a particularly bright future. you know, i think the gregor mentioned regulation. i think the problem with crypto is it's very, very hard to regulate. it's very difficult to regulate just by its nature. so i, you know, as an investments are sort of a holding investment or option. yes i, you know, people will continue to invest in it. i it, it, it will probably, you know, stay in the portfolios of larger investors are where i see a digital currency going and, and crypto is not, it is not a currency. i should say. i'm not a viable currency in my opinion, but, but central bank act did more currencies, i think will be something that we'll see more interest in in 2023. i, we've just got a few minutes left on the show and i'll ask you for a final word about your, your outlook, the big picture for 2023. but i want to ask you 1st, ah, in mariano, in malaga,

about the outlook traffic and economy in 2023. we've seen a handful of nations defaulting on our dest eye exam, be at ganeth currency. the city had its worst performances in 2022. what is the outlook for these african economies, and are they going to be able to organize, reorganize their local debt? does a very interesting question and actually one factor we need to take in mind when we remind me to take a step back and look at how ah, the situation of this concrete, what represents for different international stakeholders that could help with those situations, such as the math such as the world bank or other multilaterals because there seems to be, ah, not so tacit, but rather explicit agreement that across emerging markets, including the african nations, but also a latin america. there is the need to sustain economies to allow for, for economic recovery to just continue. regardless of this are the challenges of apache economic recovery from one to, to we expect this mixture of, in

a domestic and ability. i mean, national decision to sustain this economy. gregory, your thoughts about the outlook for african economies in 2023. clearly the cobra tango, there are countries are suffering from higher energy prices that countries suffering from a strong dollar higher interest rates. so yeah, i think there are a number of countries that have a debt problem and those problems are likely to come to the for next year we already got which the and i just recently the g d p and present the restructuring. i think we'll see more about the threat 3 because some countries are doing well and they are the commodity courses we've got a minute left on the show. so i want now a quick prediction from all 3 of you on what will the comic landscape in 2023 look like at the end of 2023. alex, let me start with you in just a few seconds. i think it will of fragment continue to fragment from a supply chain perspective. and the supply chains will break into 3 areas,

strategic sensitive supply chains, which will fragment a middle gray zone that features dual use technologies. and which of course, spill over into all other industries, and then sort of another band of innocuous stuff that nobody really cares about. so it's going to be complicated. alright, complicated, mariana, your thoughts. we are still facing subdued demands. we will need to see how that goes in the global level below. so we need to see a lot of political and technical decisions on behalf of, of emerging markets when it comes to using the opportunities or the landscape. he's presenting especially in developing certain commodities for the condition. right. greg are in london, you have the final word. what will be going on? landscape looks like towards the end of 2023. so inflation sure. interest rates are turning point and even more uneven for growth and fragmentation. i think that's absolutely right, but not just apply to the thinking that policy as well. and i think the next spent

a lot more time talking about china, even though we hopped on on the sure today. gentlemen, thank you so very much for your insights. it was great to hear your thoughts about the year ahead in the world of business. thank you. gregor erwin, i alex coppery and mariano machado, thank you once again for being on counting the cost and barriers our show for this week. get in touch with us by tweeting me actually by e j e. and do use a hashtag, a j c, c. c. when you do that or drop us an email, counting the cost that al jazeera dot net is our address. but there's more for you online at al jazeera dot com slash ctc. that would take you straight to our page, which as individual reports, links an entire episode for you to catch up on. and that's it for this edition of counting the cost. i'm fully betty ball from the whole team. thanks for joining us . the news on al jazeera is next

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