products are represented at sea. yes, including these cool head sets from us company, magic leap, the met, averse is gradually taking shape, although no one really knows what that shape will be. and by the way, where am i? sustainability is the theme at the show. john deere, as a hybrid electric farm tractor, there are electric motorcycles, bikes, and scooters and even boats. developers hope to disrupt the maritime industry. but he says, here is the navy a 30 ah, or in 30, as we call it, is that we're as long as range like that. i required any americans by select, retired by boat, and that he part of this is that it is 10 x more efficient and traditional gas bag . and there are plenty of off beat or just plain cookie products on display. this gizmo can scan your food and tell you how many calories you're going to eat. this one can sanitize your hands before dinner,

and this thing can supposedly zap your brain and relieve anxiety or other unfortunate mental states. no, thanks. i'm not putting that on. rob reynolds al jazeera, las vegas. ah, don't brokercheck of the headlines here on al jazeera, china has lifted pandemic restrictions on foreign travel, ending almost 3 years of self imposed isolation. quarantines the longer required for inbound travelers or several countries are demanding pre departure. coven tests for people adding abroad. it's always a surgeon cases in china in recent weeks. katrina, you has more from beijing. around 20 countries have added a screening requirements to any passengers coming from china and most recently, portugal in the netherlands have joined the u. s. the u. k. in canada, for example, in requiring this and because of that, experts are predicting that countries in south east asia who have not imposed any

restrictions that they will be the main beneficiaries of chinese tourism in the next few weeks and months. but we have to remember that china has really been angry about these restrictions in place on chinese travelers. they've called it political unscientific. iran is facing international condemnation. after it hang 2 men accused of killing a member of the revolutionary god in november. the european union says it's a pull. all the united states is demanding an end to what it calls shun trials. rushes unilateral. 36, our sees far in ukraine for orthodox christmas has ended. keith did not agree to the true sense of russia continued its attacks. it's accused moscow trying to use the truce to reposition it's troops. 46 soldiers from ivory coast accused by molly of being mercenaries of return home. the group was pardoned on friday, 6 months after being detained. arrest bought a diplomatic dispute between the 2 countries. the u. s. government as deported.

dozens of venezuelan migrants to mexico, mexican authorities say a 100 people who had crossed the border was sent back to the city of juarez on friday. it follows the introduction of new border control measures aimed at discouraging asylum seekers. the president is congratulated republican kevin mccarthy. i'm being elected. speaker of the us house of representatives. joe biden said he's ready to work with the party. divisions were laid back during a bruising 5 day vote. so those were the headlines. the news continues here now to sierra after counting the cost statement them so much and bye for now. ah, what is one of thailand's most dec reading comes leave the country in fear. he lie, not potty mitigation one. 0, one east revealed exploited allegation. a police corruption went out to the era. ah,

i allo, i'm adrian said again. this is counting the cost on al jazeera, your weekly look at the world of business and economics. this week, one man's collapse, another man's correction. we look at what's in store for real estate as fears of a global was session, grow. also this week, why millions of homeowners in the eurozone beyond the highly exposed to rape rises during any economic downturn. plus we ask a property, invest to where he sees the market heading in 2023. and what homeowners can do to protect themselves, ah, is the global housing market heading for a painful downturn? things we're looking peachy for the sector at the end of 2021 house prices across countries of the o. e. c. d o growing up at the fastest pace for 50 years. and all of this was

underpinned by low borrowing costs and save us with money to burn. now, just over a year later, things are not looking, so rosie high inflation has led to central banks, hiking that base rates. wages aren't keeping up with the rising cost of living at the economic repercussions from the war in ukraine will be felt for some time to come. well, joining us now to discuss all of this is andrew bomb. andrew is a meritus professor of practice at the side business school university of aux, but he's also the chairman of new core capital management. good time with us, andrew talk us through the bigger picture here, the macro economic situation underpinning the housing market right now. as we it looks like about to enter a global recession. yeah, i think, i think the big news adrian about, about the housing market is, is most people would say, how is rising interest rates and the fact that they are now back to higher levels

that we saw last in about 2007. so if you recall, the local financial crisis liked to come to the interest rates thrown in the u. k. 5 courses about one of the off by 2019 so sorry, 2009. and then and then they sort of come out again because of colby. so we've got you. so there's really low interest rate environment. and that's all reversed in the last 6 to 8 months. and that reversal is cause people to assume that we've got a housing problem because of the rising cost of debt financing. that's clearly a big issue and that sort of creating a lot of concern in the, in the housing markets globally. right now, the big news, other things that we also need to be aware of the tendency of governments to regulate, to protect one thing is another. so environmental concerns and what we do about insulating else is that the, the concern and then just the general lack of homes,

you know, the homelessness problem. the fact that in the u. k, we think we've got to short your 3000000 homes or so. all of that is a problem as well. so when you put everything together, you know, housing is clearly an issue, which is the top of a lot of people. concerns right now? are we heading for a global recession and is the era of cheap money? well, actually over? well, i think the here are cheap money is, wasn't truly, i think that's the sort of an easier questions one. so then the 2nd, while i learned a couple of years ago, that making forecast too dangerous. so we'll have our opinions. but yeah, the ear of money is probably over. i think we've been through a very, very unusual period from 2009 to 2022. when we had abnormally low interest rates and, and we will go and show those very low interest rates. you know, we've, we've been able to borrow money incredibly low prices and people like me with gray hair. i've been expecting some sort of reversal in interest rates for quite

a long time. and we've actually been over forecasting that, you know, it's, it's taking a lot longer to reverse the, we expected that the arguments in favor of global recession, i think you all are certainly in recession right now. we're heading for a, for a slow down next year. that's partly because the market increases in commodity prices, teaching bells. so we got a problem. we've also got a budget that the squeezing money out of the economy rolls and putting it back into the economy, which is what you'd be hoping during the time with us. so we've got a double hit, and all countries are being affected by rising costs and, and, and huge inflation. and the reaction of both governments to huge in places, right? interest rate increase rate, interest rang trunk. the price is going to slow down or recession. you say that all countries are experiencing this other, any particular markets around the world when it comes to housing, that will feel the pain more than others. well, did they, you know,

some markets all characterized by hotter money than others. you know, so there are some international markets where there are flows of capital, which can be good and can be, can be bad. you know, if you go to a market where people speculate, for example, then you get cost of only flying in and out. when you bought speculation, you're more likely to get rapid changes in prices against up. so that, that would include markets like new zealand, australia, the u. s. the u. k. i think the u. s. is probably the best example of where people will speculate on houses, you know, by 3 or 4 they can afford it against all about the you've got fundamental on the supply of housing and some markets, the u. k being an example. so these are confusing because you got a big on live housing and you've got the possible, hopefully flowing into now another confusing for the cause is the weakness of some currency. so for pounded, weak, and overseas buyers will find house prices more attractive,

the domestic buyers. so you got quite a few, a few issues that are buying together to create some sort of view about whether you're going to get price falls or not. and generally speaking, house prices don't fall very quickly already when you've already speculative market . the u. s. is probably the best example. let's talk about the u. s. in particular, then it is. we set for house price correction in, in the us. is that going to cause for the damage to, to, to the economy the, i mean, let's not forget that the, the financial crash 1213 years ago began in the u. s. u, too bad home loans. yeah, i mean, yes. i mean, i think the, the house price correction has already started in the u. s. and how the price is little bit certainly below or 2 years time than they are now in the us. and you can, you can read those 2 ways. you can say that that is going to lead to a slow down because people feel less wealthy. some people are forced to sell their

houses. so people better lose equity, they lose capital. they're less likely to spend money. you then get some sort of slow down. but there's another way of looking at it and the cheap house price is good for a lot of people. people would say the house prices are become too high. that the specters development in house prices needs to be squeezed out of the system. but higher interest rates all the box thing is if you can find out your house purchase, whether it's up and down lower house prices. so i'm not completely sure that low house prices lead to recession. i think it can work both ways. but what about the federal reserve? how can policy makers bring down inflation without hurting homeowners in the u. s. and triggering more foreclosures. yeah, well, very difficult. i mean, the good news about the us is a lot of mortgage interest is fixed. so the majority of borrowers will fix their

mortgage rates at low interest rates and majority. so anybody who finance that debt before 2021 will find out that probably low interest rates are going to be affected by the increasing rates in market where you've got variable rate mortgage financing, that you're going to see a bit of stress. even the u. k. is moving more towards fixed rate, find out. so there are, there's going to be a number of very unfortunate people who are false to borrow money at historically high interest rates. but the vast majority of borrow is already fixed finance at lower rates. it's been really good to talk to andrew on counting the cost many thanks. indeed for with us answerable. thank you. now, let's take a look at how people fund the homes around the world. not all of them share the same exposure to risk during any global economic downturn in the u. s. for example, mortgage rates tend to be fixed for 2 or 3 decades. so the pain from rate wise's can often be delayed for owners. in contrast, in australia,

around 80 percent of mortgages, a tied to variable rates, homeowners that are the most exposed to higher rates in the world. in sweden, it seeing a reverse in its housing boom because of energy costs and higher rates there many take on interest only loans that don't require paying off the principal loan. finland's mortgage market, however, is almost entirely priced at floating rates. but those who live in the south of europe tend to live in mortgage free households, where inheritance or family support is a common route to ownership. a germans are more likely to rent than own the homes. so rate rises will have less of a direct impact on them. with a more on the nordic perspective on home buying, we joined by audio oust, who's a professor in financial economics at n t n u business school. and he's in oslo. norway, good to have with us audio talk us through why people living in scandinavia often go for these interest. only mortgage is rather than 60 variables.

good reason why that is partially cultural and partly historical and partly because the difference in regulation. so there are, i don't, course when he comes to cultural, we are having a great deal of security net in the developers states in order to concrete. so you are supported in, in a lot of ways. so which is not so risky and tell them that you can insurance. so we spend a p show for them to have floating interest rates or, and not the interest rates and the money regulations, the positive for the households. so they don't get extra mortgage. we're sample by choosing pick interest rates, but if people have interest only mortgages the the never actually going to pay off

the, the full loan on the property. therefore, presuming if they want to end up owning the property in which they live, they have to have another vehicle which is going to pay off the principal some to have. yeah. interest more only for just a time, limited time period, for example, 5 years and then they start to pay and ah, payment. so it's no interest only for the whole term. no, so keep lean a limited period. typically when you are young households who is just entering the market and then offer while when you play there, there rages are increasing, then they're talking to pay don't payments on the lot. ok. sweeten of the moment is saying a reverse or it's housing boom. explain for us why, why that happening to us? we are, we have a future 1st,

especially under karone up where the interest rates become megan actually, and then you got a huge boom, and then now we got combust. so it's, it's pretty hard actually, and it's part of course cost by higher interest rates and populate by inflation. so when you have 10 percent, the placement that consumers quite hard and so they have less money to spend them. housing. and what about in finland? mortgage is there are almost entirely on a floating interest rate of a variable rate. so we could assume the homeowner as their face more risk from rising interest rates than perhaps elsewhere or the euro's. yeah. so they have didn't have this cycle. so the price is actually quite low compared to sweden annoying. so with carla low level, the interest rate,

the dos shouldn't cheat them at hard because they're not that much in that. so yes, they have floating in the us, we have in a noise as well. but because of the dwelling, the sheeper, it doesn't harm them as much because we didn't have this goon period at the same level as being away. and we, and what is that, that, that the situation in norway, at the moment, the property market, what, what's happening there in norway to know, we haven't starting to see a decline in house prices. not that we're, i think when so the policy has been more limited, but we're starting to see something and it's very exciting or interesting to see what's happening down there in peppery keep me very strong markets in a noise. if it will see a pole and goes to months,

it will probably continue. and one thing we haven't talked about is the rental market across the scandinavian countries, how many people are renting? so it's very different between the concrete. so in, once we, it's quite a limited number of household that it's renting, so 20 percent in all way in a little bit more in the, in them, in sweden and merck. we have regulate grantsville market and a highest share of the household who is 20. 1 of the things that we hear about the u. k. in particular is that there are entre bananas who look at buying property as a, a sound investment. there's the buy to let market. does that exist in scandinavia? yes. so it's actually the rent for by but it's, it's just talking up to we will see if that will become popular. but it has been used like a whole for young households to enter the market,

but it has just started. so we will see may be, are they increase increase strengths, will push that forward and increase the size of the market professor. it's been really good to talk to you on counting the costs many thanks. indeed for being with us audio there in our slow take your time. now the u. k, the economy shrank for a 4th consecutive month in november, pointing to a deepening recession. that's expected to last more than a year. mortgage repossession is that month also sought by more than 90 percent on the year before. that's the cost of living crisis bytes. so where does all of this leave people who have mortgages? well someone who's written extensively on this subject as rob dick's, he's a property investor, ortho and co founder of property help. he join us now from london. rog, good to have you with us. what are you seeing in the property market, specifically there the u. k. right now, well, it's been cooling significantly, not just in the many budget, but i did kick you up again,

but we were talking about this back in june, july kind of time. the move market cooling right off. but interestingly, not as it's not as bad as sentiment would have. you think that if you look at the actual beta, you look at the number of property having price cuts. if you look at it by interest and things like that, it's full and bright down. but if any come back to where it was in a normal year kind of before the cobit, it's all set in the market into overdrive not to get worse from here. it could day . but i feel like at the moment the, the sentiment is worse than the reality on the ground. and the flip side of that is the rental market at the moment is super strong. yeah, the bank of england though is saying that it might have to raise rates again at least a couple more times. but how long is this list on cars? you know, you said the things on as bad as, as perhaps the sentiment would lead us to believe. but how long do you think this pain is going to go on? i think the bank of england is almost, well, he's going to raise rates from where they are now off to the last rate hike up to

where they are now. they did signal quite strongly that they wouldn't be raging, right? as far as market price, then i think that's interesting because they still went to a period of talking very tough about rates and now with nervous about what is going to do to the market housing in particular. and they're trying to talk about bound again. it all comes down to the path inflation, which is really hard to predict. my personal view is that inflation will start to come under control in the next 6 months or so. and that's going to make the bank of england job significantly easier, and they're not, they're not going to want to raise rates any further. may have to, of course, is going to be upwards from here. so i don't think anyone's going to look back at data trends. 23 and what a great year this was, but i do think it's going to feel better than it does right now. none the less, rob, i mean, even if the rates don't go up as much as perhaps we're expecting, even a small rate rise can have a significant impact upon homeowners and the amount, but they have to pay to, to mortgage companies for anyone who isn't on a fixed rate right now,

what could homeowners do to protect themselves? i think we've seen like the last month that the mortgage market has started to significantly improve. we've seen rates coming down over the last month and we've seen more product choice. lots of lenders pulled that product off the market, wrapped and worked out, but it's very much was going on. and now they're starting to come back again. so i think if you've got the option of doing nothing and just waiting, that's probably a pretty good move because i do think things will improve from where they are. now . if you're in a position where you have to do something, because you've got a right that's coming through, then we got to really nasty variable, right? but it's really important to work with a good mortgage broker. you can show you what the options are, because there are things you can do, such as going onto a variable rate with no penalty for switching to a fixed rate, which means you can get a rate that's best and you've got now and then come on to fix when fixed is come to a court price that you're happy with. so there are all things you can do. but i

think if you're a homeowner who's on a right, you say you've got a fix that got a few years to run, but you fix that fail at 2 percent or something like that, which is pretty realistic about here guys. you need to be prepared that when that rate comes to an end, you're not going to be going back up to 2 percent right. target is going to be a long time till we see that again. so it's a good time to be preparing for what right likely to be in the future. so if you are a vision to have time to do that, that's great, but it's still going to come at some point. where does all of this fit into the 18 year cycle? perhaps you'd like to explain what exactly that the 18 year cycle is? yeah, the cycle, it's a theory. it's gonna come up with my uncle, fred harrison. he went back and looked at basic, going back for about 100 years and found the real estate funds to own land value more accurately. so tends to move in this patted, where on average, used got about 18 is total of boom and bust. so prices all right, steadily, for the most part, they have a couple of years, really rise rady shop way and then they crash again. the 18 year part is an average

. and so it's not something you can set you can to buy and decide who when she's buying and selling property. but it is an indication that's been useful. so we use that to or correctly predict that prices wouldn't fall in the wake of rec, and covalent bond consensus at the time. so the cycle, if you're following the 18 years is currently bent to end in 2026. so according to that there's another few years to go. so other investor, that's interesting, but there are things you can do, allows you to actually capitalize from the strong growth of the end of the cycle. but everyone thinks that the cycles come to end already as a highlighted. it's not something i would worry about too much because you, you buy a home because you want to live. that is not a good idea to try to time the market in that respect. the real key is to be able to make sure you can afford your retirement because once i purchased it that yes price, it crashed with a long term trend is always up. so the real key is to make sure that you're not

supposed to sell one of those times when prices have fallen. because if you do, just keep on holding that eventually they'll come back to where it was. and beyond . what you've written about how pro interest only mortgage is you are something we were talking about a few minutes ago, whether incredibly popular in sweden. of course, if you want to end up owning the home at the end of it, you've gotta have another vehicle to pay off of the principal, given the global recession fears and everything. this happening in the u. k. right, right now, has your stance on the interest only mortgage is changed if not, why not? i think is very different for homeowners and investors, because if you're home or not, most people will just want to have that home paid off in most cases. as soon as you can, so in that respect, just having a fixed payment where you know, if you make that payment for the right number, give you then the property free and clear. that's what most people get about to be able to do. it's quite difficult to get a interest any mortgage on

a residential property anyway for investors. i think it's different for investors. i think going into the reason i say interest only is better is that it gives you flexibility is not that you won't want to pay off chunks of your mortgage. you can pay off of your mortgage wherever you won't take, but you're not locked into that repayment schedule. so as long as you keep the interest, you have higher cash flow because you're not paying the principal off. and you can decide when you want to pay it off, you can decide which of your properties you want to target to make payments date. so it's really about flexibility. so nothing about the current situation changes my view on that when it comes to investors. but that's completely different for there will be some owner occupied as you feel the same way. but the majority of cases, i just want to pay off of that makes a lot sense. you mentioned how boy and the rental market is at the moment. i mean, there are 2 ways of looking at this. people who rent are being faced with, with increases in the rent right now. but investors a finding that it's pretty good. would you invest in a property right now?

if so, why and where. yeah, i'm investing right now if they don't go to going through at the moment both in the midlands in the u. k. and the reason for that is i'm investing for the next 20 years plus, so i'm not bothered about what happens in the next couple of years if prices fall doesn't really matter. because as we talked about with the proxy cycle, the long term trend is always upwards. so that doesn't bother me. and as an investor breads are particularly strong right now, which is helpful. but brents tend to be very, very steady. so even when house prices. ready for we saw in 2000 and i read, stay steady, and sometimes even rise a bit you, there are more people wanting to rent. so you've got your rental income, which is very steady, very secure. that kind of persists for many, many years. but then the actual prices will move all over the place. sometimes to be up. sometimes they'll be down. if you're investing for low enough, then you can not be too concerned about what happens month to month,

year to get rob. it's been really good to talk to you on counting the cost many thanks. some dates for being with us. thank you. and that's our show for this week . if you'd like to comments on anything that you've seen, you can treat me. i'm at a finnegan on twitter. please use the hash tag h a c t c. when you do or you control us alive, counseling, because at odyssey a dot net is our email address. as always, there's plenty more few online at al serra dot com slash ctc. that takes you straight to a page and you'll find individual reports links at a time episodes to catch up on. but that is it for this edition of counting the cost. i'm adrian finnegan from the whole team here. and thanks for being with us. the news on al jazeera is next. ah, it's one of the most spectacular mass migrations in the animal kingdom. monarch butterflies. millions of them arriving at the winter habitat in central mexico. this year the international union for the conservation of nature officially

designated the migrating monarch butterfly as endangered experts say the use of pesticides along with the loss of habitat, are the biggest threats of the species. they may be difficult to see from a distance, but these trees behind us, we're absolutely covered in monarch butterflies. now tourists are welcome at this protected butterfly sanctuary here in central mexico. but visitors are asked to keep their voices down so as to not disturb the butterflies. for many the up close encounter with millions of these vibrant butterflies is a once in a lifetime experience. experts in mexico see that despite the monarch being designated as endangered, there is evidence that conservation efforts are working. but ultimately the future of this iconic insect depends on the continued protection of their natural habitat . for scientists, the evidence is irrefutable. but america's climate change deniers stubbornly mistrust of the fact. despite soaring temperatures,

raging wild fires and shrinking water reserves, the world's largest economy is still split alongside the logical lines. so can it ever reach consensus to avoid catastrophe? climate wars are 2 on a just 0. what we do at al serra is try to balance this story and leave the people who allow us into their lives, dignity and humanity. harmful pathogens are increasingly affecting our lives with terrible consequences. a new documentary asks why that. we've learned any lessons from the h. i v epidemic in the fight against coven 19. how we ignore the global serve to put prophets before people. and it won't cost awe time of pundents on i'll just.