tv The Bottom Line Al Jazeera January 20, 2023 11:00pm-11:31pm AST
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a answer was an arabic, my name is honey. i was abducted by the cia in 2004, a german citizen was kidnapped and tortured by the cia. he came over with handcuffs . them led me into interpretation of powerful documentary toes. her story of how the geopolitics of the post 911 world crew in the life of an innocent man. the o mastery case on al jazeera. i will cover all of latin america for most of my career, but no country is alike. and it's my job to shed light on how and why. mm. mm. hello there, i'm julie mcdonald here in london with a look at the top story on al jazeera us says it'll designate the russian private
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militia company the voluntary group as an international criminal group. the move will freeze the groups assets and ban americans from providing funds to the organisation. white house national security, sports person, john kirby says wagner has tens of thousands of fights is currently in ukraine. at 80 percent of them are drawn from russian prison national. we continued to assess that wagner currently has approximately 50000 personnel deployed to ukraine, including 10000 contractors and 40000 convicts. our information indicates the russian defense ministry has reservations about wagner recruitment methods. despite this, we assessed that it is likely that wagner will continue to recruit, write out a russian prisons due to recent events. we assessed that it is likely there are mounting tensions between russian officials and mister producer, a meeting of western military leaders and germany has concluded with the agreement to provide more military support to ukraine. but the question of whether germany's leopard 2 tanks will make the way to the battlefield remains on em,
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said. ukrainian troops are currently bogged down in a grinding battle with russia around the eastern city of buckman. berlin has denied its blocking the delivery of tanks from european countries u. s. and i sit when jake, to further $2500000000.00 into keeps war reference. today's meeting focused on ukraine's needs for air defense and armor. we also pushed hard on how to synchronize those donations and turn them into fully operational capabilities. and that means every step from donation to training to maintenance and then to sustain it. police in brazil have carried outweighed song people suspected of being involved in the storming of government buildings earlier this month of ours. he say they are looking to identify people who participated in or funded the ride on january. the 8th support is the form a right wing president. geral scenario we're calling for october's election results
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to be overturned. the votes or ballston r. o. defeated by left, his president lewis in our seo lula. desilva, monica yanna care has more now from rio de janeiro. well, so far for people have been detained to day, they are accused of instigating our what the brazilian government is calling an attempted co. they're being charged with trying to are destroyed democracy in brazil, which was just back of brazil ended. it's military regime in 1985. so these 3 people, one of them is a truck driver. another person is a former, our public servant who was working for the government or former president valuable sonata, who is now in florida and has been there ah, since before lula inauguration because he did not want to pass on the presidential sash. and then there's a woman they have been on the proves that they have against them is videos that they have posted on social media. one of them calling for the uprising and for the
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riots that happened on january the 8th. when the storm, the presidential palace, the congress and the supreme court destroyed objects, the var, very valuable and historical objects destroyed all the windows and doors, and they've been posting that all so they were calling for blockades of oil refineries. so there's a lot going on, but they're still raids going on now, but so far for people have been detained. asylum seekers trying to reach you are a have describe being forcibly moved from italy to greece on make shift prisons in ferries, out as the rest part of an investigation with lighthouse records and other media upon as, as our testimony about refugees being locked in small rooms without food or water, some of the victims on minus public and private companies in sierra leone now have to reserve 30 percent of the jobs for women in a bit to tackle gender imbalances. the law also guarantees women at least 14 weeks
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of maternity leave. equal pay and trading opportunities. companies will we find if they fail to reach the quarters? sierra leone is one of the lowest rank countries in the u. n's, gender development index. those use up stories stay with us. the bottom line is up next. ah. hi, i'm steve clements, i have a question. the ukraine war brought europe in the united states closer together, but a domestic politics on both sides of the atlantic, pulling them apart. let's get to the bottom line. ah, when russia invaded ukraine almost a year ago, nato went from being brain dead in the words of friendship president emanuel mack
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crone to the most essential organization for world peace. every staff how support the western but international order. see it right now, but are there signs that the cohesion inside europe and between europe in the united states is spraying, especially in the united states where china is now seen as a much bigger threat than russia. and folks would rather focus on the cost of living here instead of funding wars abroad. today we're talking with boris ruger, the former deputy ambassador of germany to the united states. and currently the vice chairman of the influential munich security conference which convenes next month. and jacob halliburton, editor of the national interest magazine and senior fellow at the atlantic council's eurasia center, at our very own abdur rahim to car bureau, chief of al jazeera for north and south america. gentleman is great to be with all of you and force. i'm going to start with you. can you tell me today? i know you don't represent germany anymore. you represent the biggest franchise in foreign policy. in the world. is germany all in or not all in, in fighting russia and helping ukraine at this moment. i guess people can have
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different opinions. one way of looking at it is that if you compare with germany is doing now to where it was a year ago. in january of 2022, we've come a long way. we deliver all sorts of weaponry, air defense, and particular heavy artillery. now we're delivering into pre fighting vehicles and you know, we may be delivering main battle time. so that's one item that people feel. many people feel certainly the gradient that ought to be made available by germany. but i think it's, you know, for the last half empty kind of thing. but what are the fault lines domestically? i know there is controversy over sending german leper to tanks. you know, the new incoming chairman of the house foreign affairs committee, mike mccall has been very critical of germany for not doing more. and i think that
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kevin mccarthy, the new speaker of the house, who right now is still on board with ukraine funding. but he sent signals that he believes that europe is not carrying its own weight. germany is not carrying its own weight on this. and that you can kind of see that evolving like, why is the us doing so much and europe doing so little when it's on the edge of things. so what are the domestic fault lines from your perspective inside germany and inside europe? i know this is part of what the munich security conference is going to struggle with. sure. so 1st of all, i would say the observation coming from us friends and colleagues that europe and germany particularly ought to be doing more to support ukraine, that share not because it is in our neighborhood. kia is 1000 kilometers uses where i'm sitting here and we're lynn. i'm so it's fair enough for the west to expect europe in germany to be pulling its way the domestic fall line. i think there's a lot of movement. so traditionally,
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the center left in germany has been very reluctant to extend that kind of support. but actually until the invasion, the 2nd in russia into ukraine 11 months ago across the board in germany. they were very few people, including in the conservative party who are willing to support that and that has changed. so the greens are now very strong and supporting military extending military support to print the liberal party f t p. also, social democratic debate going on within that party and different voices. but you know, step by step, they've been moving in that direction. people say germany at the end of the day is only moved when there's been huge pressure from particles, now lives, including the united states, obviously. but germany has been moving in the right direction. and i think that's the most important thing. if you look at the sum total of what germany's deliver,
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it is not insignificant, especially in the area there defense. but it, it, it continues to be an issue of domestic debate. jacob, i want to get into the us side a moment, but i also want to ask you about europe. i mean, you edit perspectives from around the world with what's with you with what's going on with regard to support of ukraine, what ukraine needs, or is a need, or whether it's a legitimate conflict for the west to be involved with in any case. but as you look at it, what, how do you see the fault lines of division inside? i was just recently in eastern europe, in poland. and the support for what's going on in ukraine is very robust. but as you move westward, its weaker and weaker and weaker and becomes a paler version of the eastern european tension. at least that's my impression. what years i think you're exactly right. and what's interesting is that everything born said is true. but it's also the case that the germans, chancellor sholtes, has essentially been wavering,
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has been too cautious too timid and approaching this problem. there is a psychological block in germany and perhaps some of the other countries which is to recognise there is no going back to the future. they're not going to be the kind of ties with russia that existed in the past. they are conducting a genocidal war in the heart of europe. that is not something that you can go back and then suddenly deal with latimer pollutant on a kissy face basis as wasn't as germany did in the past. now, the germans have done a lot, but poland has become, in some ways the leader of europe and may end up with the biggest military in europe. i'm starting to wonder if germany really ever will be a leader in europe. it may be end up being a chance entirely. it's a so what you're saying is there's sort of half in half out. that's correct a little differently, went for it or said they are tilting in the right direction. but i mean, i think they are moving in the right direction, but it's, it's somewhat astounding that the foreign minister, a green of the green party is much more hawkish than the social democratic
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chancellor. and elaina barrow buck, the foreign minister, the state out, much tougher position. and she too is, is, is much more visible on this than shorts and the social democrats. they strike me as some a trapped in the past. well, another dimension of this, i'm going to get to bring him and you and boris on this, but i want to show some numbers here which, which are very, very interesting. the chicago council on global affairs has, has been asking americans over a period of time over the last year about their support for our efforts and western efforts to support ukraine. in this conflict, i should say, when indirect. and what this 1st graph here we shows is it, it's gone from 80 percent support roughly a year ago in the aggregate to about 55 percent nationally right now. and if you break it down by party, it's really interesting. it's become a very politicized division where the democrats are overwhelmingly and support 81 percent in support of our efforts with ukraine. 9900 percent opposed. but the
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divide are 52 percent of republicans are against and 48 percent in favor. to me that looks like big warning signs of something coming up. how do you see a j, i grant, i agree, a 100 percent. i think being anti ukraine is going to become a constituent element of the new republican party. i think this is the legacy of donald trump, and it is why joe biden is stepping up the fight now to send tanks and other happened heavy weaponry to ukraine. ukraine is going to have to deliver a knockout below in the next year to after him. i'm so happy you're here because i think sometimes when we have transit atlantic discussions, we can get intoxicated by their own importance. you know, when you look at the rest of the world, because another dimension out there is china's making moves in the world. i sometimes wonder if china's thrilled that the u. s. and russia and the nato in the west, they're all tied up with each other because it opens the chessboard for a lot of other moves by china. i'd be interested from
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a global perspective. what you think are blind spots in this discussion are, and whereas you sitting in washington dc in the united states. how do you see the divide this beginning to develop, develop here over ukraine? well, 1st let me just say couple of things about europe. so obviously the europeans have been pulled together with the americans by the, by an administration. we know what the biden did with regard to the war in ukraine . however, we are beginning to see strains in europe in terms of inflation, in terms of people not finding enough gas to keep themselves a woman and so on. so it seems to me that the, that the americans and europeans pulling together, it may be a done deal at least until $22425.00. if we do have donald trump or another donald trump, in, in the, in the, in the white house, combine that with europe being in patients over the prices of energy and so on. and then i think you begin to get a different configuration. and china comes into,
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into that, we've already heard noises from japan just recently. and about, you know, that their concerns about china and the japanese were pulled into this because they suddenly see that ukraine and the in the pacific region have, have become one if they stand up to russia. and that's obviously a big statement for the concerns they have about a coalition of the russians and the chinese not just in ukraine or into pacific, but also in europe at remember that the europeans have big interests in another part of the world. that's africa. and the americans need them in they need them in north africa. they need them in west africa. they need them in other parts of we're hardly paying attention here. we've had on this show,
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chin gong, you know, when he was ambassador of china, the united states, he's now the foreign ministry. he's in china right now, is getting 56 countries there and making it a priority there. but i want to ask from the global perspective, you know, jacob and boris had been studying these issues about american engagement in the world for a very long time. and i guess my question is, when you just said russia and china cooperating working together, that was supposed to never happen. american statecraft transit, atlantic state crap was always designed to sort of keep that divide going. how is it that strategic chest players in the munich security conference in washington, d. c. have somehow allowed conditions where china in the united states, which ought to be geostrategic rivals are now geo strategic partners. i suppose that's unintended consequences of the, the, the situation in, in ukraine and joe biden, and his ministration worked extremely hard in the early days of the war in ukraine
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to keep, to bring the europeans completely on board. we know that the germans initially were very tentative in terms of supporting the sanctions because they didn't see the sanctions as that basically serving the interests of, of germany at joe biden did manage this amount that. but you know, the unintended consequences that he brought the russians or the conflict in ukraine has brought the russians and the chinese together. you said you're in your introduction. the biden ministration has said clearly umpteen times, they do not see russia. russia as the greatest menace to us power. they see china and the chinese are now everywhere. they are in africa. they are in the middle east. they're in the gulf. they, they are everywhere in the u. s. will need to, to those small powers in those regions. to actually make sure that the chinese do not getting in a big way in those areas for us. this
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a very important point. i love to get your sense of china. you written about this in your international politics quarterly. i highly recommend to people to read, keeping the trans atlantic mojo for future proofing. transatlantic relations with force rica wrote international politics quarterly. and i think that you outline and say that china is going to be a complicated challenge to keep transatlantic relations together. because you see, you say inertia isn't going to hold relations together. it has to be deliberate. we have to have coordinated plants where we talked about ukraine, but how do you see the china challenge for transatlantic relations? i'm a little more optimistic than what i've just started. if i can say that. if you think back 12 months when the, this invasion, when you started this invasion, germany was important. 55 percent of the gas from russia. 11 months later, january 2023 were importing 0 percent were no longer importing oil from russia. so,
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from all the pain that you know, and all the difficulty that there's been i think europe has, has, with very strong support from the united states of america. dealt with this crisis, and this mr. pooty was thinking that he could, he could put a somehow rest victory from the situation. what are you seeing is that time? and again, the western allies are stepping up their support for you. so, and i think that will continue. and maybe germany is not going to look very leading sort of is not going to be ahead of others, but germany will be there with other partners providing equipment. the other positive that i would see is that when it comes to china, people in europe including in germany, including and the parties that support the government, the social democrats, the greens, the liberals, have understood that china is a huge challenge. and we have started having a kind of conversation and creating
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a framework to address the china challenge. that's a big difference from 2 or 3 years ago. and i think the ukraine situation has also accelerated, our understanding how, how challenging and accurate china is the kinds of scenarios that we might encounter in the, in the pacific. so i think we're moving in a good direction. try take them, i want to ask you something and you and i have talked about this before that you see this moment of kind of global reshuffling as an extraordinary opportunity for the united states. for the buyer administration. you have lot of the, by the administration for being very are in this crisis. and i'd like you to share that with us. but i'd also like to understand from you how fragile that perspective may be given what we see unfolding in the u. s. capital in washington, d. c. where there are a lot of people who just want to walk away from the rest of the world. right. we may sabotage or an opportunity, i suspect down our own hill, right. i suspect that we are headed potentially towards the uno polarity,
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where the georgia is blaine. that explains, that means that the united states, as it was, after 9891991. the collapse of the soviet union that the united states is not just 1st among equals, but really the dominant power in the world. and we essentially bungled that opportunity the last time by invading iraq and squandering our own power and ruining our finances. there is a 2nd opportunity looming to met numerous domestic problems in china. and the other one is the potential disintegration of russia. if those things occur, then there really is no competitor to the united states on the world stage. however, there is ad, you're assuming, it's something kneecaps, china, and that's not a perspective we often hear right now. correct. i am i shy away from the china hawks. i am not convinced that we are inevitably headed towards
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a new cold war with china. i actually think russia represents the more dire and potent threat right now. china is been pretty careful, but china is domestic problems. i do not think that it is faded, that the united china will surpass the united states. i don't buy it. or can i say this, the, it seems to me that when it comes to china, the united states has an achilles heel which is much closer to home. just remember just a few days ago, and president biden heard from the president of mexico. had sent him in which may have sounded radical to the biden administration, but to latin americans. it's not, he said, the u. s. has been treating us with disdain. couple that with what happened in brasilia and the, the shaking of the brazilian democracy and the repercussions of that for the united states. remember that china has enormous interest with brazil, for example,
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economic interest with brazil and other nations in latin america. get the foundations of democratic systems in these countries that have voted left in latin america. and you get china looming, big on the radar in latin america, often called the backyard of the united states. erase one of the questions about china, which, you know, has been arguing the, hey, we need economic globalization, but we do not need cultural imperialism. we do not need to have every country b, b, b shaped the same way. you know, if you look to day at daven, davis is coming up when this, when the show will air devils will be underway a couple of weeks after that. we will have the very important munich security conference. and part of what underlies this is whether or not autocracies, ill liberalism is an o k form of government to move economies forward. and i'm just interested. abdur rahim into what degree the chinese model has become very compelling as in north
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star, for many other economies in the world, we certainly has, i mean, you take, you take a lot in america to, to start with closer to, to the us. right. and obviously countries have developed strong ties with the chinese and the chinese philosophy has run true in latin america in africa, in other parts of the world. meaning the chinese are saying, i am willing to help you some out your economic problems and i'm not going to ask any questions about a human or so freedom of the press like the americans or the europeans would do. and very, a lot of countries in these places are very receptive to that message is especially when they get the impression that the united states, rightly or wrongly this may not necessarily be true, but in their eyes. and in there is the united states is trying to disengage from
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those parts of the world, and they see china as the alternative. perhaps in our last few minutes, gentlemen, i want to ask you about the biden doctrine, joe biden, jacob, you, and i have discussed this has been measured in his response, withdrew from afghanistan, which he didn't really support, even the obama administration direction in afghanistan. he'd been measured, i think most people agree with regards to approaching ukraine in the conflict with russia. how do you see the biden doctrine going and do you think that he's being defined by ukraine and these billions of dollars that are, that are going into ukraine? will that be something he celebrated for or will that crucify him in the 2024 election? i think his election chances rise and fall in many ways on ukraine. and that is why he is pushing now hard for some kind of ukrainian victory in that territory. obviously wants some kind of negotiation, but he is tougher than his own. national security council advisor james sullivan. i
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think he's more closer to tony lincoln. the secretary of state. but yes, biden. and you, for him, ukraine must score a significant victory over russia. in the next 6 months prefer preferably a year at the most. because once the republicans get control of the fiscal outlays to ukraine, which they don't have right now because they were passed in november, december by, by the congress. then all hell is going to break las abdur rahim if you were to define a bite and when, as you see it from your perspective, what are the key contours of that? well, number one is to basically assure people outside the united states that what happened in 20, in january 2021 is not going to happen again in the us. because that really shook the confidence of many countries. many of them close allies of the united states about the american political system and whether they can rely on it to provide
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security for them in the, in the, in the future. add to that the fact that the serious concern that the biden administration must feel right if the war in the ukraine doesn't and quickly and not just in terms of what's happening in the united states, prices and so on. there's people in some parts of the world are beginning to find it difficult to get food, and they tie him that to the biden decision to support the ukrainians fight the russian right. finally, final word to you, boris. does joe biden have a doctrine in foreign policy? from your perspective, i think, you know, this is foreign policy for the middle class, which is a nice soundbite, but it, what it reflects is that you have to think when you think foreign policy, national security, you have to combine a lot of things. economic development back home, keeping up in terms of technology,
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all these things. and i think the buy team has done pretty well in that regard. the one area that i think needs to be looked at closely and where improvement is necessary is right tendency, perhaps towards protection. right. so better how to trans planting space and work together on these things rather than closing ourselves up. thanks. great conversation, really appreciate it. munich, security conference, vice chairman boris ruger and career journalist, jacob harbor, and of the national interest and abdur rahim fu car of al jazeera. thanks so much for being with us today. thanks. thanks. so what's the bottom line? the ukraine war has been a turning point in history and it's forcing every country in the world to think about where it stands. western european countries like being aligned with united states, but they still want enough wiggle room to go their own way on some issues. america would love to go back to the ninety's when it was the world's global policeman and got its way everywhere, but its own internal divisions have undercut it soft power and blocked it from
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playing all its cards. meanwhile, most of the countries don't want to be tied down by any alliance, whether it's western or chinese or whatever else. that means the old order is kind of falling apart and we're becoming more tribal. and we just care less and less about any one else, which in turn means more conflict with the big powers more impotent than ever in dealing with them. and that's the bottom line, ah, being comfortable in one's own scheme is a bus, right? or at least it should be a black filmmaker raised by white parents in east berlin. in the 19 sixty's embarked on a stunning journey of self discovery, a touching tale of family identity, lifelong secrecy, and reconciliation becoming black. a witness documentary on out jazeera.
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i've worked out, is there english since it's lordship, as a principal presented to and as a correspondence with any breaking the story we want to hear from those people who would normally not get that voice is heard on an international news channels. one moment i'll be very proud of was when we covered the depaula of quake of 2015, a terrible natural disaster on the story that needed to be told from the hall of the affected area to be then to tell the people story was very important at the time oh hello there, i'm dealing with donald's here in london with a look at our top stories on al jazeera. us says it will designate the.
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