satisfied and try, we got some wet weather. meanwhile, some winter weather the sun into greece and more so in took the clear northern parts of africa are generally dry, but we will see somewhat to weather maybe get to know them areas about syria. ah, but the corona virus has been indiscriminate in selecting this victims. it's devastating effects of played every corner of the globe, transcending class creed and color. but in britain are disproportionately high percentage of the fallen have been black or brown skins. the big picture traces the economic disparities and institutional racism that is seen united kingdom fail, it citizens, britain's true colors. part one on al jazeera, public anger is growing in the u. k. hundreds of thousands of people have participated in wade stripes. the prime minister has described the industrial

action of the political battle of how well his government deal with the growing dissatisfaction. this is inside story. ah hello there and welcome to the program. i'm laura kyle. they were the biggest strikes in the united kingdom in more than a decade, and unions worn more could follow more than half a 1000000 whackers teachers, civil servants, boss. i'm trained, drivers walked off the job in england and wales, that demanding salary increases in line with the rising costs of living. the government says it can't afford it. i didn't bother. has this report? oh, smiling through the colds. but normally samarra and her colleagues at this school for pupils with special needs would be in sight. dave, they want to pay right?

that meets the rising cost of living and keeps people in the profession. i've had to make he sacrifices, i've actually watch t jobs and for 5 years now to be able to get to the keep every face in my head to be able put fuel in my car says i can actually get to lap even friends of mine. he have been teachers 43 years, had decided that it's just not for them because they genuinely cannot bear the stress and be the isolate and or, and the what played that, that they are expected to day. thousands of teachers and their families marched in london on wednesday. many stress arises should be far higher than the 5 percent offered for last year, and be paid for by the government. not comfortable ready, stretch school budgets. that pipe and pay came eligible by then. so what you're doing is you're taking wake me a pages and up enough my mom's name and like it's just, she works so much emotional dimensions. you have to think like the doing so much

more than ever applies to you with these teachers are making sure their demands are heard on what is clearly a sizable demonstration for wave of industrial action taking in various parts of the economy or calling on the government for pay rises, that leads inflation. the government insist is bound by the recommendations of the pay review body, even though it's constrained by the financial remit. ministers gave it the independent pay review body recommended 5 percent fixed beavens teaches an 8.9 percent for new teachers. there's also progression pay within those salary bands as well. so 40 percent of classroom teachers will actually be getting pay rises up to 15.9 percent this year to the national education union that's far from good enough to accuse ministers of refusing meaningful talks. they go to dial down the rhetoric

down the until you down to teach it and they got to start it once again to room on the time and resources to negotiate with at the moment there is not an offer on the table you can put to them no, no, actually from this a delay they should have published their evidence. maybe what your friday publish it. the next education strike is due at the end of the month. if there's no movement or per you are likely to be seeing more protests. not just from people like tomorrow, but workers in other key professions who at least for now, enjoy broad support from the public within bother al jazeera london. now, another problem is that britain is the only g 7 economy set to decline this year. in satchel monetary funds, as it will contract by 0.6 percent worse than the forecast for russia. inflation in the u. k. has hit a 40 year high. it's that up more than 10 percent in december showing a slight improvement from 2 months earlier. but families, they,

they're still struggling to make ends meet food and energy prices are storing. one study shows higher prices will add nearly a $1000.00 a year to an average household grocery bell. ah, let's get some thoughts now from our guests. and joining us from london as alex dean, conservative commentator and a former you, kate, conservative party aid in sophia, is james midway for me. economic advisor to the u. k. shadow chancellor. and currently a counsel member of the progressive economy forum and also in london is johnson portez professor of economics and public policy at kings college london of a warm welcome to all of you. alex. so what's the government plan to deal with all these strikes? well, i thought of it and the piece was a fair one reflecting opinion on the ground in this country. and i thought that the, the caveat at the end of those going on strike,

maintain public support for now is quite telling. because the longer you mount industrial action like this, i fear those conducting, it will find the less public sympathy there is for them, rightly or wrongly about their cause. if you can't get to work because the train is on strike, where you have to stay at home because your children can't go to school even after 2 years of having their education interrupted by corona virus. then i think that you lose a certain amount of sympathy. as be frank, i think the government will, in part think the time is on their side. it is a carry on strike. i use the primary or she still likes plan is to wait, wait for public opinion to turn on the strikes. forgive me, but i've no brief to speak with the government at all. i was telling you what i think, which i think what you wanted. so i think that's the 1st thing that i think that's and time is against the interest of dispos daniels. dr. given the points we've been discussing today about teachers going on strike, it's very interesting to you. k spend on education is towards the top of the cd,

brack, his own expenditure, and then teacher pay is if we consider our neighbors towards the top of the european sliding scale of pay for teachers. and ours work is towards the bottom of ours, at work by teachers are a great respect for the profession. both my parents and teachers, i found the piece we were listening to quite affecting my mother was a special needs teacher. but i would separate out the points that nadine was making between the interest of teachers which we can all discuss and look at and think are important. and unions which are now mounting. what seems increasingly to me to be party political platform against the conservative party and against the prime minister. okay, james is quite a lot to one pick that has taken alex his last point that the unions are not actually representing the best interests of the teachers here. i believe that's what you were saying, alex, that they are. they are motivated by political means and that teaches that see, don't have it so bad when compared to other european countries. well, the not teaching in other european countries are teaching here. and as the

institute the fiscal studies, hardly a den of left wing agitates, is pointed out. this week. teaches pay is declined by $6000.00 parents relative to what they would have got if you kept pace with inflation over the last 10 years. so this comes on top of a long period of declining real pay for teachers and worsening conditions in schools for teachers. and that she, for the people that teach the students they teach, that's what striving this is not hundreds of thousands of teachers out there deciding they're going to go for a she soon act that hundreds of thousands of teachers deciding, in some desperation, that they have to strike because the government isn't budging on the fact that they're being underpaid in the middle of what is actually historically incredibly high inflation for the u. k. i actually don't believe that they're being driven by desperation. what i would say they're unions and misguided if they think they're going to yield the results that they're encouraging their members to think they can secure. you said quite fairly in your introduction that the i'm a forecast for the united kingdom is not a positive one. but that's not something for critics of the government to celebrate

. we should all want our country to do better. it's a reminder that there isn't, there are huge resources on which the state now can draw a our nurses union began their pay negotiations throughout the 19 percent. 1919 percent of pay uplift, the kind of situation where even if the government meets you half way, you're still being unreasonable that these unions, it's not a coincidence. they all come together at the same time to make demands that can't be met by the government. it, when you see that it is a political effort to try to shift the needle, help the lead party at the next election j at on the, unless there's bring you in at this point because it does appear, doesn't it, that there's a stalemate going on. we're saying very few actual pay negotiations happening. why is neither side, seemingly willing to compromise? well, i mean, that clearly is untrue. and i don't think even alex would claim that it's that that's a statement of the fact. the fact is that the nurses union, for example,

alex referred the 90 percent. the european union has said very explicitly in public several times that they are willing to compromise and talk about a job and settle for a significantly lower rise than the one they are originally. asking for the government has explicitly refused even to discuss that the same, i believe is true of others who are in strike. so it is simply wrong to say that one side is refusing to compromise, and the other is prepared to comprise. the government has simply refused to talk about pay at all. and the unions have said explicitly that they are willing to talk and willing to come up, right. so i think we should be quite clear that that's not what is going on. so so, but you know, i don't think they want to get a union so willing to compromise from lead double digit figures, which the government there is that, i mean, can you right. ok, i'm not sure why or why why, why you are even asking me. i'm just a professor of economics here. i mean, you know, i, i saw just as

a member the public, i saw the leader of the nurses union on the sunday morning talk show. i think it was just last week saying very explicitly, we will meet the government half way. the government simply will not discuss pay and the government said very explicitly, they will not talk about pay the union the state of very explicitly, we will talk about i, we will compromise. so, i mean, this is the political discussion. i'd like to talk about the economics, but let's be absolutely clear on the facts here. it's, the government is not talking about a unit of said very clearly they will talk to that by now. when we talk about what is of your, of who's side is time on? i think there we need to look at from 2 perspectives. i'd, you know, i don't know what will happen to public opinion. none of us do. but it may, you know, i'm in quite simply, you know, in terms of, can the government afford to sort of sit in white is out of yes, of course it can. i, the country won't collapse if the unions are on strike eventually the,

if the government sticks to its guns, unions will have that will have to give it. they can't force the government to hand over more money. i'm. but the important thing is they are actually in the long run, the government still going to lose because i'm, as mrs. thatcher, who famously did, can see quite large public pay rises, sector pay rises when inflation was rising. recognize you cannot buck the market. and actually it's not the unions that are saying that are public sector workers like nurses and teachers need more pipe. it is simply the market, hey, in the public sector has been caught very substantially of the last decayed, but particularly in the last few years. so at the moment, inflation is about 10 and a half percent pop, private sector pay is rising. well, i'm at 7 percent, a big cost in real terms for people working in the private sector. but public sector high is rising by about 3 percent. so we're talking about average

cuts in real terms of 7 or 8 percent. and the consequence of course, is exactly what you expect. that is to say very high levels of vacancies in health and social care, very high levels of you. the government cannot recruit teachers, new teachers in the key areas that we need to succeed as a country in years to come. science technology met mathematics and so or so, of course the government can simply refuse to pay. but what that will mean is that up the quality of our public services i used to been degraded quite a lot in the last 10 years will continue to degrade. so it's not really unions versus the government. it's whether the government in order to win this is prepared to further degrade the quality of public services at tank like a little later came shelton going to hand because on to get more of an idea about inflation and the advising cost of living. because you've got teachers, we've got nurses saying that they're real salaries, that they're taking home is

a 5th of what a roundabout of faith, of what they had in 2010. it's. it's not sustainable. is it this, this, this cost, this rising cost of living? not in keeping with rising salaries. well it's, it's a fit seems large or maybe it's the 5th less than, than they had in 2010 rather than simply a 5th of what they had. but that as being the problem, as jonathan says, for a long period of time in this country, the last decade is seen. actually most people in work not do especially well. and then once we hit this big surge of inflation and last 18 months or so, most people are really quite seriously losing their energy bills in particular. but actually as energy bills or at least as wholesale energy prices have fallen, it's been food. price rises, which are forecast to increase quite significantly over the next few months, at least of this year. this really eating hits people's pay packet. so that's what's driving this. and of course, it's not just a public sector,

although for the reasons jonathan outlined is much dramatic in the public sector. the government is deliberately holding down pay raises in the public sector as much as it can and thus provoking these straits and actually worse nick retention in the public sector. it's also in the private sector where you see, of course, people are also losing out and we are starting to see more private sector strikes and private sector industrial action taking place. something again, that's been quite unusual in britain for actually many decades. at this point. i alex, hey, of course politics is going to play in so all of this, but really this is as jonathan says, an issue of the economy, isn't it? well, i mean, it's quite remarkable to still use that claim in one breath that a, this isn't to deal with politics. and then to say, the government has provoked strikes when it quite clear who have whatever you positional a political spectrum that public sector strikes on the scale a really bad for government. anyone who thinks the government wants this to happen . i think ease really quite off beam on their political interpretation are.

jonathan does have a point when he says the government's formal position is they don't want to negotiate on pay with unions like the nurses. but i, i know he doesn't tell you why the reason the government does want to do that is that for years people in britain, especially, i must say on the left, maintain that it was quite wrong for government to have direct control over decisions about where pay levels will be set and we needed to have these public sector pay review bodies that would decide a fair position. and the reason that government is, doesn't want to go through further negotiations directly with union leaders, is that those public sector pay review bodies which were demanded have been sets up, have made conclusions, have recommendations. and the unions don't like them. so they blame the government for the conclusions of the 3rd se, if, if your 3rd party i arms length body that is decided at pe positions and just to, to be clear. jonathan is also right to say that the organized unions like the nurses set do now say they're willing to compromise what, what wasn't that. then there i'm willing to compromise. that's not what i said. my point is that when you're starting point is nearly 20 percent is so unreasonable

that when you say you're willing to meet the government half way, you are still being unreasonable. james, what do you think would be in that? um, i think we, we are not. i mean, really good highway with larry? absolutely. a yes, i'm good. can we just be clear about the pay review body though? because i read alex resume. he knows position here. so i, i think he frankly is being quite deliberately misleading. the government does not implement what the pay review body say, does it? how many times has the government itself rejected the recommendation to the pay review body imposed to lower paying grace alex? can you tell us that? yes, but the point i was thinking to make all of them was you hadn't even thought to mention it. you simply to go now it is going to have to amount of math. it has a question i know to let me get you as busy. usually we refuse to talk about you being perfectly clear and it wasn't true. government say he wants to stick with the decisions of the pay review body, right? that's what, that's what was present to you saying that the government,

what are you saying that the government or we stick with a decision with the pay review body or that the government hasn't in the past simply rejected or decisions the pay review body and chosen to impose the lower pay increase, so no predict the printer perfect. it's perfectly reasonable. it would be reasonable field for you to argue that you think the government is wrong to say they want to stay with the pay everybody's conclusions. it's quite misleading on your part. to suggest that the government simply refused, it is disgust pay as if that wasn't even relevant or fact, no position. wait, wait a minute, a review bodies, our room. you instantly went around. the government was, was saying they will get to talk about pay a month. you, you want to talk about many, many, quietly that was will actually thing was i think we should be quite clear about what's happening here. i said correctly. the government is refusing to, to discuss pe, you said that the government was refusing discuss pay, but without a was i and why? wait, wait, let me spite that got the pay was set at the demand of the quote left by the pay

review bodies. i simply point out that the government has a number of times, including in the very recent past and including when jeremy hunt was home. secretary hell, secretary simply rejected the decision to the pay review body. the decision pay review body is not binding on either side because and that in because the government has refused to make it binding on either side. and indeed, in the past, the government has simply ignored what the pay review body said, and imposed a lesser salary increase on this occasion. the government liked what the pay review bodies i've said, and it is therefore saying, well, we'll stick with that. we're not going to talk about pay. so the government you choose is when it likes to pay review body, it accepts it refuses to talk further when it doesn't like it. the recommendation that by review bodies, it rejects them and poses a lower salary, increased. now those are simply the fact that let's just bring james right. this point is i want to opinion today with whether or not unions and the teachers of the

people on strike. actually pay any heat to pay with the bodies. hudson's pheasants . yes. the structures there, the big question of course, is a who, who sets the remit for the pay review body is always the government in any case. and should the government choose to find more money to pay its own work? because then it could, of course, do that. the question of affordability, i think, has been fairly well dealt with simply because we don't have less trust than causing quite saying, sitting in numbers 1011 anymore. that one's government borrowing, get fallen back to roughly what it would have been without, with the many budgets of last september. the hedge room against the government's own fiscal rules is enough to pay it. pay payable, inflation meeting, pay rise to the public sector over the next year or so going. that's what the figures tell you. so there is actually the money there including even against the government's own rules at this point in time. so as bear in mind, margaret thatcher is already been mentioned. margaret sanctioned a 1st year in office, gave a 25 percent pay increase on average to the public sector because she didn't want

strikes to happen. it's not unheard of the gums to be generous when inflation is high because they know that they have to keep those services running. and what's happening right now is it with the rate of exit from things like nurses from the n h s, in general from teaching. we are getting worse and worse public services because we're not paying people properly. and he says, oh god, how much do you think that aspects of this argument features in the government conversation the concern about the public services, the quality of the n h s, the quality of schools that, that factor into any of this you know, quite significantly because one of the main things that governments get elected on all fall on. so i think it, it features quite prominently. but what are the other things that features quite significantly and nationalized considering discussions like this is that there's been some discussion of how the private sectors are getting on to. for those of us in the private sector would look at a 23 percent defined benefit pension. at which our teachers have 23 percent by the employer and think, my gosh,

that's incredibly generous. and then look at holiday arrangements and think you've got to think about the whole package that somebody in these roles have, rather than simply talking about the one data point or pay even if jonathan was unwilling to disgust. and that because when we least with leaves package needs report, you've got a teacher who's working 2 jobs just to support her teaching. crave got many others leaving the profession because they can't afford to live on the salary that is not boosting or creating an ideal situation. for our schools. but look, as i mentioned, my for brazil, everyone in my family teachers, i didn't quite recognize the position that was sketched out and you know, really in the end argument, my anecdote is almost certainly not the right thing to undertake. and i look, i've already made the point that i teach is a better paid than most teachers in the entire continent of europe. and the asked spend is higher on education. but i think the atl inflation is at the highest rate

that just doesn't match up. i'm going to move the discussion on a little bit if i can, because i'm conscious of time. i want to bring up the fact that shell today posted the highest profits in it's 115 year history. $40000000000.00 worth double last is and is it time alex, i'm sorry, i'm going to come back to you again on this. but is it time for the government to impose a proper winful tax on that these energy companies that are profiting on these high energy costs that are making other people's lives so miserable? like to see that government's already on the take and see the question would be the level at which it's set and you know i, i bet there some people and show wishing they had didn't have the announcements today. the timing's pretty poor for them wouldn't. you wouldn't, you think, given the sheer size and scale of this, and indeed, i heard the report package that you had before. we came on air for inside story at today on al jazeera, talking about the level of tax that shell expected to pay in the u. k, as one of europe's largest businesses and europe,

largest oil and gas company. and that level of, of tax. i spent a bit put into the exchequer. here in the u. k is, i think, not what most people would expect. so whilst of course, the oil and gas jobs will always argue that they need to plow their profits into exploration into an into future developments. i think they're going to wind up paying more tax in the u. k. for sure, the discussion is then going to be about whether the quid pro quo of allowing them to explore more and invest more is going to happen because what you can't be is a double anti. you can't say that got to pay much more in tax and they're not allowed to go out and take more fossil fuels out of the ground, which is the position of a lot of people are currently in in society. but that's no longer interestingly because of the energy crisis, the position of people like the biden administration who argued last year that the fracking industry in my west should go out and, and i'd stop at nothing to increase production. ok, again, i'm gonna keep moving on because i want to stick with this money issue that the

money that is being made in some sectors, not in others. jonathan, the government says it's got no money to meet double digit demands from the strikers. where should it get the money from? if it's going to meet the demands? well, as james said about that, you know, the idea that the government has no money is, is it pretty though it is not a framing, any serious act? economic really recognizes. of course, over the longer term there are fiscal sustainability constraints, but the idea of the government can't afford to pay the money. now if you want to do that, wanted to stop, as i said, and i say this is what mark, you know, this is the key point. this is what the market is telling us going back to, you know, it's quite amusing saying somebody like alex, sort of saying how teachers are paid very well. you know, i just ignoring what the market is actually telling us we cannot recruit nearly enough. young teachers, particularly in subjects like science and mathematics,

which are right, late government priorities, where the prime minister is rightly said. in my view of that, we want everyone to learn a lot more mathematics. we can't recruit those teachers. why not? because we're not paying them enough, the market is telling us that mathematicians get significantly more money and better conditions elsewhere. and so saying, oh, they should think about their pensions. you know, that's not what the market is dying, alex, it just isn't. and if you believe in labor, how like that we should listen to what the labor market is saying. we will have to pay people in public services more. and that's regardless of whether they go on strike or not, frankly. so that's the 1st point. so it's not a question of ok whether we coming to the end of the month. no one is what james to have lost. what hes, james strikes that ongoing, more strikes of full cost. what's gonna happen? are they gonna end? i think i had that demons met. what do you think is going to bring britain into a better place? well,

the most likely outcome at this point in time is i think the government has mishandled all the strikes. i think it was a mistake to end up in a situation where you basically have close to the entire public sector in dispute at once. i think that makes it very hard for them to climb down and offer concession to any one group or strike is without having to start to think to make concessions elsewhere. but we can see the splits from the government side. already . rumors are the cabinets, split reports of this on what to do with the nurses and with other groups of workers. my guess is they're going to have to concede, they won't concede all of the union demands, but we'll concede a fair amount of them. and my other guess is that if inflation stays high over the course of this year, and most likely will, we will see other strikes not only in the public sector, but increasingly in the private sector. to that we have to leave our discussion. it's not even alive you one today. thank you very much sentiment for joining us here on the inside story. and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website that's out there, dot com for further discussion. do go to our facebook page, that's facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. it was during the

conversation on twitter and live at ha inside story from me laura kyle and the whole team here. if i finish, ah ah. and hope francis is said to visit the democratic republic of congo and south to dawn in a trip that is meant to heal the wounds that is still bleeding. will the pontiff to visit, start a chapter a piece and reconciliation ending the internal conflicts of these 2 nations. pope

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