forget part of us for lanka. further north, we have a western disturbance settle spill its way across the far north of pakistan. easing across into the north west of india to purchase in new delhi around $26.00 degrees . ah, a city defined by military occupation. there's never been an arab stayed here with the capital of jerusalem. everyone is welcome. but the support structure that maintains the colonial project. that's what we refuse. it was one of the founders of a settlement with this and the story of jerusalem through the eyes of its own people, segregation, occupations, discrimination, injustice. this is a 21st century jerusalem, a rock and a hard place on al jazeera. public anger is growing in the u. k. hundreds of thousands of people participated in wade strikes. the prime minister has described

the industrial action of the political battle. how well his government deal with the growing dissatisfaction. this is inside story. ah hello there and welcome to the program. i'm laura kyle: they were the biggest strikes in the united kingdom in more than a decade and unions worn more could follow. more than half a 1000000 workers teachers, civil servants, bus and train drivers walked off the job in england and wales, that demanding salary increases in line with the rising cost of living, the government says they can't afford it. i didn't bother has this report? oh, smiling through the colds. but normally tamara and her colleagues at this school for pupils with special needs would be in sight. dave,

they want to pay royce that meets the rising cost of living and keeps people in the profession. i've had to make these sacrifices, i've actually watch t jobs and for 5 years now, to be able to get to the keep every face in my head to be able put fuel in my car says i cannot get to lap even friends of mine. he have been teaches 43 years, have decided that it's just not for them because they genuine, he cannot bear the stress and be the isolate and or, and the what played that, that they are expected to day. thousands of teachers and their families marched in london on wednesday. many stress pay arises should be far higher than the 5 percent offered for last year, and be paid for by the government. not comfortable ready, stretch school budgets. that pipe and pay came eligible by then. so what you're doing is you're taking wake me things to be in with my mom's name and like it's just, she works so much emotional dimensions. you have to think like the doing so much

more than ever applies to you with these teachers are making sure their demands are heard on what is clearly a sizable demonstration her offered call wave of industrial action taking in various parts of the economy or calling on the government for pay rises that meet inflation. the government insist is bound by the recommendations of the pay review body, even though it's constrained by the financial remit. ministers gave it the independent pay, the view party recommended 5 percent fixed payments. teachers an 8.9 percent for new teachers. there's also progression pay within those salary bands as well. so 40 percent of classroom teachers will actually be getting pay rises up to 15.9 percent this year to the national education union. that's for, from good enough to accuse ministers of refusing meaningful talks. they go to dial down the rhetoric down the until you down to teach it. and they got to start it

once again to room on the time and resources to throw at the moment. there is not an offer on the table you can put to them. no, no, actually from this a delay they should have published their evidence. maybe what your friday. i haven't published it. the next education strike is due at the end of the month. if there's no movement or pe, you were likely to be seeing more protests, not just from people like tomorrow, but workers in other key professions who at least for now, enjoy broad support from the public dean, bother al jazeera london. now another problem is that britain is the only g 7 economy set to decline this year. in social monetary funds, as it will contract by 0.6 percent worse than the forecast for russia. inflation in the u. k. has hit a 40 year high. it's that up more than 10 percent in december showing a slight improvement from 2 months earlier, but families, they,

they're still struggling to make ends meet food and energy prices are storing. one study shows higher prices. we'll add nearly a $1000.00 a year to an average household grocery bell. ah, let's get some thoughts now from our guests and joining us from london as alex dean, conservative commentator, and a former you, kate, conservative party aid in sophia, is james midway for me. economic advisor to the u. k. shadow chancellor. and currently a counsel member of the progressive economy forum. and also in london is johnson portez professor of economics and public policy at kings college london of a warm welcome to all of you. alex. so what's the government plan to deal with all these strikes? well, i thought that a piece was a fair, one reflecting opinion on the ground in this country. and i thought that the, the caveat at the end of those going on strike,

maintain public support for now. is quite telling because the longer you mount industrial action like this, i fear those conducting, it will find the less public sympathy there is for them, right? you're wrongly about their cause. if you can't get to work because the train is on strike, well you have to stay at home because your children can't go to school even after 2 years of having their education interrupted by corona virus. then i think that you lose a certain amount of sympathy. let's be frank. i think the government will, in part think the time is on their side. this is a carry on strike. i use the prime minister. she still likes plan is to wait, wait for public opinion to turn on the strikes. forgive me, but i've no brief to speak with the government, but all i was telling you what i think which i think what you wanted. so i think that's the 1st thing that i think that and time is against the interest of the space going on strike. and given the point we've been discussing today about teachers going on strike, it's very interesting course. the you k spend on education is towards the top of

the cd, brack, his own expenditure, and then teacher pay is if we consider our neighbors towards the top of the european sliding scale of pay for teachers and ours worked is towards the bottom of ours at work by teachers are a great respect for the profession. both my parents and teachers. i found the piece we were listening to quite affecting my mother was a special needs teacher. but i would separate out the points that nadine was making between the interests of teachers, which we can all discuss and look out and think are important. and unions which are now mounting. what seems increasingly to me to be party political platform against the conservative party and against the prime minister. okay, james is quite a lot to one pick that has taken alex's last point. but the unions are not actually representing the best interests of the teachers. here. i believe that's what you were saying, alex, that they are. they are motivated by political means and that teaches that see, don't have it so bad when compared to other european countries. well, the not teaching in other european countries are teaching here. and as the

institute the fiscal studies, hardly a den of left wing agitates, is pointed out this week. teachers pay is declined by $6000.00 parents relative to what they would have got if you kept pace with inflation over the last 10 years. so this comes on top of a long period of declining real pay for teachers and worsening conditions in schools for teachers. and that she, for the people that teach the students they teach, that's what's driving. this was not hundreds of thousands of teachers out there deciding they're going to go for a she soon act that hundreds of thousands of teachers deciding, in some desperation, that they have to strike because the government isn't budging. on the fact that they're being underpaid in the middle of what is actually historically incredibly high inflation for the u. k. i actually don't believe that they're being driven by desperation. what i would say they're unions and misguided if they think they're going to yield the results that they're encouraging their members to think they feel secure. you said quite fairly in your introduction that the i'm a forecast for the united kingdom is not a positive one. but that's not something for critics of the government to celebrate

. we should all walk our country to do better. it's a reminder that there isn't, there are huge resources on which the state now can draw. our nurses union began their pay negotiations throughout the 19 percent, 1919 percent, or pay uplift the kind of situation where even if the government meet you halfway, you're still being unreasonable. does these unions, it's not a coincidence. they all come together at the same time to make demands that can't be met by the government. it, when you see that it is a political effort to try to shift the needle, help a lead party at the next election. j a. jonathan, let's, let's bring you in at this point because it does appear, doesn't it, that there's a stalemate going on. we're seeing very few actual pay negotiations happening. why is neither side, seemingly willing to compromise? well, i mean, that clearly is, is untrue. and i don't think even alex would claim that, that it's that that's a statement of the fact. the fact is that the nurses union, for example,

i like refer to the 90 percent. the european union has said very explicitly in public several times that they are willing to compromise and talk about a job and settle for a significantly lower rise in the one they are originally asking for. the government has explicitly refused even to discuss that the same, i believe is true of others who are strike. so it is simply wrong to say that one side is refusing to compromise, and the other is prepared to comprise. the government has simply refused to talk about pay at all. and the unions have said explicitly that they are willing to talk and willing to come up, right. so i think we should be quite clear that that's not what is going on. so so, but you know, i don't think they want to get a union so willing to compromise from that double digit figure which the government there is that, i mean, can you right. ok, i'm not sure why or why, why, why you are even asking me. i'm just a professor of economics here. i mean,

you know, i, i saw just as a member of the public, i saw the leader of the nurses union on the sunday morning talk show. i think it was just last week saying very explicitly, we will meet the government half way. the government simply will not discuss. i am a government said very explicitly, they will not talk about pe, the unions, the state of very explicitly. we will talk about high. we will compromise, so, i mean, this is the political discussion. i'd like to talk about the economics, but let's be absolutely clear on the facts here. it's, the government is not talking about a unit of said very clearly they will talk to that by now. when we talk about what is your of who's side is time on? i think there we need to look at from 2 perspectives. i the, i don't know what will happen to public opinion. none of us do. but it may, you know, i'm in quite simply, you know, in terms of, can the government afford to sort of sit in white is out of yes, of course it can. i, the country won't collapse if the unions are on strike eventually the,

if the government sticks to its guns unions, while half the will have to give it, they can't force the government to hand over more money. i'm. but the important thing is they're actually in the long run, the government still going to lose because as mrs. thatcher who famously did, can see quite large public arises sector pay rises when inflation was rising. recognize you cannot box the market. and actually it's not the unions that are saying that are public sector workers like nurses and teachers need more pipe. it is simply the market, hey, in the public sector has been caught very substantially of the last decayed, but particularly in the last few years. now at the moment, inflation is about 10 to 9 percent private sector pay is rising, about 7 percent is a big cause in real terms for people working in the private sector. but public sector high is rising by about 3 percent. so we're talking about average

cuts in real terms of 7 or 8 percent. and the consequence of course, is exactly what you expect. that is to say, very high levels of vacancies in health and social care, very high levels of, you know, the government cannot recruit teachers, new teachers in the key areas that we need to succeed as a country in years to come. science technology met mathematics and so or so of course the government can simply refuse to pay. but what that will mean is that of the quality of our public services i used to been degraded quite a lot in the last 10 years will continue to degrade. so it's not really unions versus the government, it's whether the government in order to win this is prepared to further degrade the quality of public services at tank like a little later james children going to hand because on to get more of an idea about inflation and the advising cost of living because you've got teachers,

we've got nurses saying that they're real salaries that they're taking home is a 5th of what a roundabout of faith of what they had in 2010. it's. it's not sustainable. is it this, this miss costas rising cost of living? not in keeping with rising salaries. well it's, it's a fit sam's large or maybe it's a 5th less than, than they had in 2010 rather than simply a 5th of what they had. but that as being the problem, as jonathan says, for a long period of time in this country, the last decade is seen. actually most people in work not do especially well. and then once we hit this big surgery, inflation and last 18 months or so, most people are really quite seriously losing their energy bills in particular. but actually as energy bills or at least as wholesale energy prices have fallen, it's been food. price rises, which are forecast to increase quite significantly over the next few months, at least of this year. this really eating hits people's pay packet. so that's what's driving this. and of course, it's not just a public sector,

although for the reasons jonathan outlined is much dramatic in the public sector. the government is deliberately holding down pay rises in the public sector as much as it can and thus provoking these strikes and actually worse nick retention in the public sector. it's also in the private sector where you see, of course, people are also losing out and we are starting to see more private sector strikes and private sector industrial action taking place. some he, again, that's been quite unusual in britain for actually many decades at this point. i alex, hey, of course politics is going to play in so all of this, but really this is as jonathan says, an issue of the economy, isn't it? well, i mean is quite remarkable to still a set claim in one breath that a, this is in to deal with politics and then to say, the government has provoked strikes when it quite clear who have whatever you positional a political spectrum that public sector strikes on the scale a really bad for government, anyone who thinks the government wants this to happen. i think ease really quite off beam on their political interpretation. now jonathan does have

a point when he says the government's formal position is they don't want to negotiate on pay with unions like the nurses. but i, i know he doesn't tell you why. the reason the government does want to do that is that for years people in britain especially i must say on the left, maintain that it was quite wrong for government to have direct control over decisions about where pay levels will be set. and we needed to have these public sector pay review bodies that would decide a fair position. and the reason that government is, doesn't want to go through further negotiations directly with union leaders, is that those public sector pay review bodies which were demanded have been sets up, have made conclusions, have recommendations. and the unions don't like them. so they blame the government for the conclusions of the 3rd, say if, if your 3rd party i arms length body that is decided at pe positions and just to, to be clear. jonathan is also right to say that the organized unions like the nurses set do now say they're willing to compromise what, what wasn't there there? i'm willing to compromise. that's not what i said. my point is that when you're starting point is nearly 20 percent is so unreasonable that when you say you're

willing to meet the government half way, you are still being unreasonable. james, what do you mean that um i i, we, we are not, i mean really good highway mccleary, absolutely. a yeah. i'm good. can we just be clear about the pay review body though because i be alex resuming those position here. so i, i think he frankly is being quite deliberately misleading. the government does not implement what the pay review body saying, does it, how many times has the government itself rejected the recommendation to the paper view bodies imposed to lower paying grace alex? can you tell us that? yes, but the point i was thinking to make all of them was you hadn't even thought to mention it. you simply to go and now it is going towards amount of math. it has a question i know to let even if it was a use me, we refuse to talk about pe. you being perfectly clear and it wasn't true government saying it wants to stick with the decisions of the pay review body, right?

that's what, that's what was present to you saying that the government, what are you saying that the government are we stick with a decision with the pay review body or that the government hasn't in the past simply rejected the decisions the pay review body and chosen to impose the lower pay increase only partake of the printer. perfect. it's perfectly reasonable. it would be reasonable field for you to argue that you think the government is wrong to say they want to stay with the pay a very bodies conclusions. it's quite misleading on your part to suggest that the government simply refused to discuss pay as if that wasn't even relevant or fact. yeah. wait, wait a minute, a review, but he's only you can simply went around. the government was, was saying they were going to talk about pay a month. you wouldn't talk about many, many be quite clear that was what if anything was i think we should be quite clear about what's happening here. i said, correctly the garment district using to to discuss, hey, you said that the government was reusing, discuss, pay, but without a was i and why? wait, wait, let me spite that got the pay was set at the demand of the quote left by the pay

review bodies. i simply point out that the government has a number of times including in the very recent past and including when jeremy hunt was home. secretary, hell, secretary simply rejected the decision to the pay review body decision pay review body is not binding on either side because and that in because the government has refused to make it binding on either side. and indeed, in the past, the government has simply ignored what the pay review body said, and imposed a lesser salary increase on this occasion. the government likes what the pay review bodies i've said, and it is therefore saying, well, we'll stick with that. we're not going to talk about pay. so the government you choose is when it likes to pay review bodies, it accepts it refuses to talk further when it doesn't like it. the recommendation that by review bodies, it rejects them and poses a lower salary, increased. now those are simply the fact that let's just bring james right. this point is i want to opinion today with whether or not unions and the teachers of the

people on strike. actually pay any heat to pay with the bodies. hudson's pheasants . yes. the structures there, the big question of course, is a who, who sets the remit for the pay review body is always the government in any case. and should the government choose to find more money to pay its own workers, then it could of course do that. the question of affordability, i think has been fairly well dealt with simply because we don't have less trust than causing quite saying, sitting in numbers 1011. any more than once, government borrowing have fallen back to roughly what it would have been without, with the many budgets of last september. the hedge room against the government's own fiscal rules is enough to pay a pay payer inflation beating, pay rights to the public sector over the next year or so going. that's what the figures tell you. so there is actually the money there, including even against the government's own rules at this point in time to ashbury might not get such as already be men should nugget, sanction of 1st year in office gave a 25 percent pay increase on average to the public sector because she didn't want

strikes to happen. it's not unheard of the gums to be generous when inflation is high because they know that they have to keep those services running. and what's happening right now is it with the rate of exit from things like nurses from the n h s, in general from teaching. we are getting worse and worse public services because we're not paying people properly. and he says, how, how much do you think that aspects of this argument features in the government conversation the concern about the public services, the quality of the n, h s, the quality of schools that, that factor into any of this? you know, quite significantly because one of the main things that governments get elected on or fall on. so i think it, it features quite prominently. but one of the other things that features quite significantly in national life considering discussions like this is that there's been some discussion of how the private sectors are getting on to those of us in the private sector would look at a 23 percent defined benefit pension. at which our teachers have 23 percent by the employer and think, my gosh,

that's incredibly generous. and then look at holiday arrangements and think you've got to think about the whole package that somebody in these roles have, rather than simply talking about the one data point or pay even if jonathan was unwilling to disgust. and that because when we, when we like it needs package and needs report, you've got a teacher who's working 2 jobs just to support her teaching. crave got many others leaving the profession because they can't afford to live on the salary that is not boosting or creating an ideal situation for our schools. but look, as i mentioned, my for brazil, everyone in my family teachers. i didn't quite recognize the position that was sketched out and you know, really in the end argument by anecdote is almost certainly not the right thing to undertake. and i look, i already made the point that i teach is a better paid than most teachers in the talk holsen's of europe and the, our spend is higher on education. but i think it in place is at the highest rate

that just doesn't match up. i'm going to move the discussion on a little bit if i can, because i'm conscious of time. i want to bring up the fact that shell today posted the highest profits in it's 115 year history. $40000000000.00 worth double last is a is it time alex? i'm sorry, i'm going to come back to you again on this. but is it time for the government to impose a proper wind full tax on that these energy companies that are profiting on these high energy costs that are making other people's lives so miserable? i see that governments already undertaken see the question would be the level at which it's set and you know, i, i bet there some people and show where she now had didn't have the announcements today. the timing's pretty poor for them, wouldn't you wouldn't you think, given the sheer size and scale of this. and in t, i heard the report package that you had before we came on air. the inside story at to day on al jazeera, talking about the level of tax that shell expected to pay in the u. k. as one of

europe's largest businesses and europe, largest oil and gas company. and that level of, of tax spent a bit put into the exchequer. here in the u. k, is, i think, not what most people would expect. so whilst of course, the oil and gas jobs will always argue that they need to plow their profits into exploration into an into future developments. i think they're going to wind up paying more tax in the u. k. for sure, the discussion is then going to be about whether the quid pro quo of allowing them to explore more and invest more is going to happen because what you can't be is a double ante. you can't say that got to pay much more attacks and they're not allowed to go out and take more fossil fuels out of the ground, which is the position of a lot of people are currently in in society. but that's no longer interestingly because of the energy crisis, the position of people like the biden administration who argued last year that the fracking industry in my west should go out and, and i'd stop at nothing to increase production. ok, i can't get a keep moving on because i want to stick with this money issue that the money that

is being made in some sectors, not in others. jonathan, the government says it's got no money to meet double digit demands from the strikers. where should it get the money from? if it's going to meet the demands? well, as james said, i think that you know, the idea that the government has no money is, is a pretty, is not a framing any series. second, economic really recognizes. of course, over the longer term there are fiscal sustainability constraints, but the idea of the government can't afford to pay the money. now if you wanted to, if it wanted to stop, as i said, and i say this is what mark, you know, this is the key point. this is what the market is telling us. going back to, you know, it's quite amusing saying somebody like alex, sort of saying how teachers are paid very well. you know, i just ignoring what the market is actually telling us we cannot recruit nearly enough. young teachers, particularly in subjects like science and mathematics,

which are right late government priorities, where the prime minister is rightly said in my view, that we want everyone to learn a lot more mathematics. we can't recruit those teachers. why not? because we're not paying them enough. the market is telling us that mathematicians get significantly more money and better conditions elsewhere. and so saying, oh, they should think about their pensions. you know, that's not what the market is dying, alex, it just isn't. and if you believe in labor, how like that we should listen to what the labor market is saying. we will have to pay people in public services more. and that's regardless of whether they go on strike or not, frankly. so that's the 1st point. so it's not a question of ok with coming to the end of the month. no one is what james to have lost. what hes, james strikes that ongoing, more strikes of full cost. what's gonna happen? are they gonna end? are they gonna? i bet demands met. what do you think is going to bring britain into a better place?

well, the most likely outcome at this point in time is i think the government has mishandled all the strikes. i think it was a mistake to end up in a situation where you basically have close to the entire public sector in dispute at once. i think it makes it very hard for them to climb down and offer concession to any one group or strike is without having to start to think to make concessions elsewhere. but we can see the splits from the government side already. rumors are the cabinets, split reports of this on what to do with the nurses and with other groups of workers. my guess is they're going to have to concede, they won't concede all of the union demands, but we'll concede a fair amount to them. and my other guess is that if inflation stays high over the course of this year, and most likely will, we will see other strikes not only in the public sector, but increasingly in the private sector to that we have to leave our discussion has certainly been alive you one today. thank you very much sentiment for joining us here on the inside story. and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website that's out there, dot com for further discussion. do go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com

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you more award winning documentaries and live lunch. the corona virus has been indiscriminate in selecting its victims. it's devastating effects of plague, every corner of the globe, transcending class creed and color. but in britain, a disproportionately high percentage of the fallen have been black or brown skins. the big picture traces the economic disparities and institutional racism that is seen united kingdom fail, it citizens britain's true colors. part one on al jazeera. ah, i'm robinson and dog at the top stories on al jazeera. the pentagon says it's trucking a suspected chinese spy balloon spotted over its aerospace.