round the uh, foothills of the himalayas and wet weather western disturb spilling out of north pakistan into india. ah. but their plight emitted from history kept alive only in the family. tales of those who survived is hard to believe for people who didn't see the astonishing story of the polish women and children who endured the siberian glass and sought refuge in africa, never to return again. an epic odyssey of resilience memory is our homeland on al jazeera oval food costs have hit a record high. so what's driving them? some blame war in ukraine and throughout the sewing price is the stabilizing many countries. what's the way out of the crisis? this is insight story. ah

hello, welcome to the program. i'm still robin near the end of last year. the number of people in the world reach 80000000000 according to the united nations food program, a combination of geo politics, climate events, and slow economic recovery after the pandemic opposing a risk to our global food security. not all of us will face the consequences in the same degree. the u. n says the war between rushman, ukraine could force a fragile system of global food supplies to fail. moscow and kiva estimated to have accounted for 30 percent of wheat exports among other staples. the middle east, north africa, and the horn of africa suffering the most from that conflict with food shortages and price increases across europe, simultaneous crises and food distribution,

energy access, and fertilizer supplies shots the global food system. last year, when the war began, the un food and agriculture organizations as places like the united kingdom, could see empty shelves well into 2023. in other places around the world backlogs, at container port stemming from pandemic locked downs and a shortage of truck drivers is adding to the challenge of delivering food to everyone apart from man made that does the climate also poses a severe challenge in pakistan. for example, recurrent floods that have destroyed crops, i've also left the country with almost no dry land. and that means the effects of those floods could be felt for decades to come. energy giants, b, p, and shell announced record profits this year, driven by the war in europe. the announcements promote calls for the u. k. government to levy winful taxes on energy revenues. ah. so for more on this,

i'm joined by august on this edition of inside story in santa christina italy as monica tova economist for you and food and agriculture organization in helsinki is sarah shift link assistant professor in supply chain management and social responsibility at the hank and school of economics and in otto is chet bouquet, who denay gua professor and university research chair at the university of auto. well, welcome to all of my guess and thank you for joining us on this edition of inside story, monica, can i just begin with you in santa christina? i'm in the official body, the food agricultural organization of the you and tells us that the food price index for the $5.00 staples that are normally assessed has dropped for the 10th consecutive months. yet we're also as a global community experiencing some of the highest food prices ever in most parts

of the world. what's going on? it's a very confusing picture that's being told. yes, thank you. thank you for the question in this confusing, but it's not confusing once me and i see that and can be father, that fail fort rising. banks looks at commodities and i to looks at bank, i'm on the piece and the and i see that before they sion at the beach dos come on a piece on being grabbing between companies between private sector etc at santana in our song. since it's a gong policy in banks, it hides a lot of changes that the behind in this in backs. so one example in the us and mission be so then the magic number open i seized, bailey and sugar, but i see the crime while the syrian but i see the main stable. but in see any osby have read that, that decline. and we also have an ice beach increased solving these composite in banks. you gather all that i'll answer that he had on all the climb. the next point

to make is that the consumers are not buying commodities in bank than buying flowers than buying bank than buying other goods. when the sharon on that commodity is there, like the really small on, couldn't be allowed in the small depends on you buy. but that is the cost of energy . that vance that goes to the bank goes to the cost of farm producer. lucky that is that cost well, cost of and the in boards, lane bonanza that impacts that. but i see that the consumers and thank on that. he then lena, okay, let me just bring in search of like in helsinki here, because a to add to what monica said, vegetable oil prices of decline, but 2.9 percent di reprice is declined by one point full meet cost decreased by one percent. this is, according to the f, a o sugar cost decreased by 1 point one percent. how do these figures so relate to sort of pre and post cove it pandemic levels?

it co queen, queen use that as a starting point? well, i think we're very different marketplace now across the whole supply chain. so it's not just the basic input. but if you're talking food prices, it also includes the transport costs and costs include a lot of labor and we're seeing labor shortages. we're seeing maybe a lack of mobility of labor that would previously had. so there's a lot of things that feed into what consumer prices are in the end. say there is a disconnect between the commodity prices, monica, that and what we're seeing in the supermarket in the restaurant. so when we're talking about going out for pizza night or something. well, we are looking at the whole complex of things. it's not just the flower that goes into that, but we are having much more complexity there in the market has shifted significantly, both the labor market, but also consumers are consuming in different ways. now we've seen a price online deliveries, a lot about food being online delivered. that's an additional labor step there. say

things are very complex. it's not just commodities. there's a lot of other stuff that's going into that and the world is a very different place and it was creep 2020 day that we're going to pick all of this because a 70 i just a moving parts to this story. it is quite complicated for, for any of our views and probably who got to try to fathom how to unpack it all at you big to be kind of come to you. and also because, i mean there was recently the world economy foreign that happened to doug also and food security was one of the you might say top issues to be discussed at all levels . and there were related debates to the food security about social stability and climate change. you can't really talk about food security without talking about those subjects to and what's the impact of those sorts of conversations that are happening or have happened in devils when it comes back to each sovereign country around the world, including canada. i mean that having those debates there as well, i agree with dog, there's happening, begin path on some security and some security,

meaning that individuals to have access to nutritious food. i've all times, i need to look at it, but that is not in reality. right now they have been a very big shift and more and more people are classified as being hunger with the, from the needs and the war in russian drain. and she put that into context. there were aspects you climate just like you would see also correlation with the increased and foreigners challenge and droughts. in many locations, there are more and more increased with insecurity. so now of course, there are ways different ways of getting the strategy, but lane so about putting the pins in the right context, respects to inputs from a different state borders inc would from, from governments and also put the right innovations in the sciences ration are in

helping address some of this challenge. well, let's talk about one of those issues a little bit more in depth, a sustainable production, sarah, if i can come to you in helsinki, because the impact could well be pretty severe on climate change in job creation. it's the 2 things that are quite linked to when it comes to trying to improve industry. i mean, such moves to improve sustainable production, take time and they cost money. but as a continual debate, isn't it? i mean, what are the big sticking points in that debate? it is a huge debate in terms of cost. obviously every country around the world is trying to save somewhere and we just don't have enough money to go route in most cases. but then there's also a question of, of the solving bass at a national level, or are we solving as an international level? there are $8000000000.00 of us on this planet, and we want to have food to go around and, well, i live in finland. so it's not like we're going to start growing oranges here any time soon as much as we might want to localize our production. so we are looking at

an international picture quite a complex picture of how we distribute the food that we do have. we've seen that, for example, with the intervention of the u. n. in ukraine to try and get that grain and to try and get to those critical areas about the horn of africa and others. so it is a global picture, but we're also seeing quite a bit of nationalism in that regard as well. our country comes 1st, we need to support our own citizens 1st. so is that delicate balance of well, is it global, are going more national? here is very, very political and we talk about food supply chains as well as other supply chain that food is kind of the most basic item that we all desperate any. i'm so glad you mentioned nationalism because that was my next question. what's come to monica in? santa christina, because your analysis would obviously include national sovereignty of various countries and people within those countries and their national governments would want to reassure them that the food that they produce, even on their own land,

is secure. and they have nothing to worry about because you're bored as a safe and hopefully you're growing capacity. and your production capacity is safe until you start exporting more than you keep at home. countries like morocco have seen this where they've actually sent so much abroad. they haven't got enough of themselves, especially in this was quite evident during the pandemic of how do you actually assess the way countries keep some of the produce for themselves without being accused of hoarding? well, companies do it. and that too, but on bank, then domestic market tonight, there is nothing that would prevent them from doing that. however, the often the case be that the interest directions and be so this happening last year after been born in ukraine's donte that often the strangeness to actions aren't into that use in any i've been up to minor and the markets on thank you for that. so you will see that the countries because they are bonnie bank might not be

enough supplies banking got you into and he was very southern hans of and he said that measures went on stopping the export, the saw the seat bomb or only in 2022 we saw it to be denies in some countries. so when something grind it happens, the price is immediately start increasing and this a skinny a think more problems god i bought in countries. trabusia could just bring you in here as well of if you are holding an agreement we yes, i agree. respect to summer. i believe that it's a balance. so food production should be such a way that that would be enough, you know, for, for in the region are in the country. but also i did some time trying to bunch of you. and i didn't mention that the issue. i know one of the cases is you know, 1st of what happened with respect to shop h, r, and then i package our words are,

doesn't record auction. i mean, many are some in some ways that calls into question over reliance on certain types of food or the cry for instance. and in the 4 different counties, different countries to diversify the type of food that is a lot of different types of food. the similar or even composition, for instance, are the different or the aspects of the food and our system that can, you know, help alleviate some of these issues versus looking at the same level as we see. you know, we have, some are often perhaps we coordinate collected on monday, july prompts i did up producing different edition east quite a bit that you've produced in logic one to be is that actually helps their lives, the local food system. i'm bring the boston resilience so that when you have some disruptions for us, they wouldn't have a lot of shit offs in the markets to increase for friday. but some are some of the

issues as some of the aspects of which systems that you know, where you have to tap into obsolete. and i believe that address could definitely help reduce some of these from the end of the day. you still need to grow all of his food in some shape or form several times about to you talked about the ukraine, grain shipments and the agreement between russia. obviously that was all habit out last july in 2022. but before i go to monica, because it is actually her agency that saying that because the agreement is so shaky, sarah. the fact that, sir, til i didn't get out on time, the fact grain didn't get out on time will effect food production in 2023. i mean, how bad is it going to get before it gets better? absolute game in agriculture, you do have quite long lead times. it's not like you can suddenly decide to increase production for next week. so the issue with fertilizer and having enough fertilizer to actually have the right yield and all of those agriculture productions that is

a huge issue. and that's going to follow us around just because, well, it takes some time to actually grow your crops and you need a fertilizer at certain points in time and be able to actually do this. so this is a shadow that hangs over the globe of food production. and then of course we're going into all the other issues with climate change as well, where we have seen huge droughts around the world really this year that are affecting agricultural production. then of course, a big flood elsewhere, it mentioned pakistan beginning there. so we are in a very complex picture here that all feats together to create this huge instability that is going to continue to follow us. and because our so many parts to lead is very difficult to predict. well, this is going to be the magic solution because there isn't one, there is no one thing that can fix the situation on the supply side, but also on the consumer side. it is the food as a very emotional issue. so it is something that we react very strongly to. we saw that as side of the pandemic with all of the panic buying of various comfort food items. but we're also seeing it now in market changes that when we do have export

bands going a place that is usually quite quick reaction to that from the markets of what are we going to do? what happens now? how is that going to influence our own market? so it is very, very complex issue. so look at like about to them because of that whole ukraine. russia issued, it's ongoing and it's been the top story globally for nearly a year. now, do we have a false impression that ukraine and russia are the only 2 countries that can produce the grain that the global market requires? because there hasn't been so much of a shudder in asia pacific has a so if i may go back for one question before i answer the question about the ukraine and salmon, i hear about production increase and give a little a little nervous because the production increase if it's good to, he goes that of action, but you can do it in a sustainable manner. the same applies for me as it applies for, for open crops, often crops. it's a great idea. they can provide timely hoops to come to the store,

to people, to farmers which otherwise will not be able to be going say mainstream grams. but the sustainability conservation, the environmental sustainability using the any crucial we have seen when the week was produced in baton. the best that many years ago, and even that, that banned the production. eventually i saw ghostly that the country abandoned the is, i'm sorry on your canada. you can and i shot on too many important, many significant. but i do use us all of c by declaring read names and then now that just that will be drank, and c and some pharmacy or us. yeah, we have not any, any seen that much of them be crying in that there was every crime in the exports from the ukraine seems like will not accept the black c points between the end of february. and i'm going to come to the company when we know that part of the

history, what i want to know is why we have this, perhaps idea that we're relying just on ukraine and on russia when in fact, countries such as indonesia, malaysia, we are not that high i was, there was this idea, i think, in the public persona, that if we don't get, we were all going to stalls, but that's not the case. the people in asia pacific are not panicking about it in the same way. and i'm getting notes from helsinki in all to wellness, but we have to address how people in indonesia are reacting a malaysia and the philippines because they deal with a different type of serial rice. they do going to be dress, man, man, band, and the expanse of when they're beat by sees increased difficulty. 80 problems are so many done, easy off of a, but i saw that know the funny example. so these are very connect, they might in fact you have this year, you had that icon, glove international international keeps exporting to the global market. you have any concrete up in australia, in australia, to the extent possible convenience to explore,

given the logistical constrains by maybe somehow thinking and say more about a logical constraint then. yeah, they keep exporting by them as the markets that the production from ukraine remains quite important. and if i may add, isn't that, that last year we have seen some decline of action and expand, but the cm, beyond going to see even a bigger decline because the farmers are knocking money. took that i'd use the next club to stand the next company song. for example, the annie on the blanket between them is 40 percent less than it was last year with it should be the and let me come to you in all to well, because all we then looking really at the most serious topic of conversation when it comes to food diversification, and low lowering within that, the global, a carbon footprint that scientists keep suggesting a governments keep promising. yes, i agree, and that is actually one of the guess the most from it's an aspect. so, mitigation of the current crisis in my opinion. because it is not okay,

the destruction in one part of the world disrupt the entire system. so what that will guess, what will change our sustainable increase in ability? it is important that we embrace this concept of verification and take it seriously because we variables integration brings about stability, you know, because then people can produce their own food. and different cultures have different types of serial. and in fact, this year is the un international. it's of military which is also serial. and they're similar last week, you know, are we climate and you can see can grow in a drought condition. there are many, many, many, many order crops like back that can help bring about the stability if embrace as the next crop. so i believe that there are sufficient quite important and you would also help or control some of the climate issues with the fact that, you know, i was denied for sure and the other way around and it's looking for expanding. so

and bringing some of these are the options. so more reason, thomas, you can actually help privileges with systems and bring about that that much need to change. that way you can have more options are, can have more in terms of purchasing of food and also more stability. so the issue is cost by the destruction. so can i bring you in here? me, where does the public private partnership actually develop such you know, often we see the government wanting to invest in, in new technologies to benefit the community at large. and if that is in food production, you need experts to come in because obviously funding is required. what's the balance when it comes to making sure that you know, there is the issue of supply supply chain and profession professionalism and at the same time, social responsibility to the community? absolutely. so love interconnected issues here and yes, there's many policy documents in place to say, okay,

we're going to shorten our food supply chains. focus more on getting food from our country within our region. but it also needs to follow through from industry, from producers, from manufacturers down the line. and in the, and also from the consumer. it is yes, we want to switch to things that are easier to grow in drought conditions for example. but that in the end is something that needs to happen on the consumers plate as well. if people are unwilling to switch to something that is maybe not your traditional serial by is the one that we can continue growing and we can, can you growing at scale that in the end doesn't tell whether we have policy buying into that. or we've got industry buying into that. there's also this consumer buy enough. what do we want to consume? what do we want to have here? and that's kind of with the season ality as well. it's something that often comes up of, do you need to have strawberries around the year, the, or the sort of things that we've become quite used to our global food system that is very highly interconnected. and we're used to having these global trait flows in

our food systems and our food supply chains, and that is being challenged at the moment. i think we've also seen that with non food items during the pandemic at all. the result of transport issues realizing how complex our supply chains are and how interconnected they really are. because, well, we are substituting things. so even if you're usually eating a different serial, if the price for that one goes up, you're substituting with something else. so it is affecting the whole serial mike it is whether or not a particular area has shortage at the moment to be k. just want to come back to you cuz we're sort of getting close to the end of our program. but government and business leaders often get to the cup, the copper conferences every november. i mean, we're heading towards one in this coming november. it will be in the united arab emirates, food production, foods, scarcity and food security will be part of that conversation. how important are gatherings like this, and do they really solve the issue or the governor's word importance? i mean, it will be

a very good medium to advocates for government intervention. i guess, you know, $0.40 to be implemented has to be the point. it's will, by the difference elements are regional prices and the regional financing through the actually what come together up to become a level of prices. story governments are really willing to invest in the system in the research on the size of the migration to develop new technologies offering to support. imagine us more than me does disasters in the countries and cannot watch new or aspects of, of which is, which is the emergent alternatives to, to the standards. i think that would conjugate significantly in the un, our food system, stomach intransigence, one, there was a recommendation that he governments can invest one percent of the agriculture rigidity back and science and innovation. and it just, it was systems that could help us. some of these issues and help increase our,

the risk and their, their last parents are made the point about cultural shifts about plans. you must not being willing to make sure that i believe when the government is involved. and what is the emphasis on these are all kinds of things. and when everybody recognizes those prices, people are willing to change or do surprise these alternatives already in different parts of the world. so just a matter of industry been encouraged or applied to adopt some of these alternatives and we bring about diversity needed to sustain. okay, let me just bring sarah here because obviously, you know, while you have all of these politicians jostling for position and they will come november, how are countries using sort of food availability as sustainability or security as a, as a strategy for sort of geopolitical power because you know, food is power, isn't it? absolutely, i mean, any sky skirt can be power in the end. so you see that used as soft power sometimes

. so we thing, for example, ukraine, utilizing grain ambassador is to african countries to market their grain and also market relations to ukraine. so it is definitely a political element in the food supply chains as well. it will be international collaboration that we need where we need to interact with each other, and that will also be a game of power in the end. it is. we see some countries trying to stop pile things, trying to make sure that they are well off whether that is with food items or whether that is with fertilize and similar things. so we've got countries trying to combat down the hatches. they are, we have seen the export restrictions of various countries. so it is very much a political element. they are to try and support both the world and other countries, but also your own own homeland. and monica, just briefly. i mean, inflation obviously is a subject that sitting on the air waves across the globe at the moment, you know, pakistan, lebanon, egypt, to morocco, all as well as many more across europe,

all being affected. how closely you monitoring this when you're analyzing the data, you need month by month to tell the world where the price is going up or down on these commodities. wonderful blessing banks that not include the considerations of that price inflation because it's, it's about commodities versus $4.00. but we, i'm wanting done that development on that but i of that. but i see on that, eat down and are very closely closer and closer, mostly because of all the countries or we shall see or what does happen. certainly in the coming few weeks, we'll have to leave it, i'm afraid, but thank you very much. very interesting conversation and thank you to all of august sir monica that over sarah shifflett. and she bought e k, who had a ne gray and thank you to for watching as well. thank you for call sir, watching the program, and then you watch any time by visiting our website at altus. eric dot com and to further discussion get will facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter

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