down a costello countries pushing across germany into southern areas of poland. i will continue to drive its way further aces notice down towards that's a southeast corner anchor at around 10 degrees celsius and rising. so we coming up around 12 here as we go on through sunday, some pleasant sunshine with a bit of snow for the out. but wall drawn, sunny from madrid on sunday. ah, here's from, i'll just on the go in the tonight. i'll just, there is only a mobile app is that this is where we dissects online. and i guess, going from al jazeera mobile app available in your favorite after just that for it and tapped on a new app him out. his ear needs that you think that it a bird flew outbreak in many

countries. global concern is growing. so, how serious is it? and could it become a new pandemic? this is inside sort. ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm how much i'm job. the world is going through its largest ever recorded outbreak of bird flew. it's tearing through populations of poultry and wild birds argentina and were why have declared a state of national sanitary emergency after detecting the virus in wild birds? experts say it has become an endemic for the 1st time. as some wild birds transmit the virus to poultry. the virus has jumped from europe and asia to north america, and it's no longer restricted to birds. in the u. s, the number of wild mammals either killed or cold, as a consequence of bird who is growing. authorities report infections among grizzly

bears skunks and sea lions. the spread of the virus from birds to mammals is heightening a risk of it's spilling over into humans. the world health organization says we must all be prepared. h 5 and one has spread widely in wild birds and paul poultry for 25 years. but the reason spill over to my most needs to be monitored closely. for the moment, doubly joe, i says, is the risk to humans as low. we need to be just vigilant to make sure that a spread, the nanny maurice contained because the more the virus circulating animals are, the higher is the risk for human as well. because the virus circulating in animal can evolve to form that are more trans missy boy. and then these days this pillow very in human population. and then we can have a, i'll breaks of 80. and let's look at what bird flew is and how it spreads. it's

a disease that affects poultry and wild birds, and usually flares up between autumn and summer. bird flew can infect entire flocks within days, and is transmitted through their droppings and saliva or by contaminated feed and water. this outbreak has affected more wild birds than ever before. the world health organization says it's recorded nearly 42000000 cases in domestic and wild birds since it began in october 2021. all right, let's go and bring in our guests. joining us in indiana is marcus rus. the chief executive officer of rose acre farms in rotterdam is marian goodman's head of the virus science department at erasmus medical center. and in surrey, england is when eric ball who heads the avian influenza group at the pier bright institute, which focuses on infectious disease as a form animals, a warm welcome to you all and thanks so much for joining us today on in said story markets, let me start with you today, rose acre farms is the 2nd largest egg producer in the united states. how hard have

your farms been hit and and how are you all coping so far? we have lost one farm of our own companies and we have another partnership we own. it's a joint venture area, 50 percent. we've lost a farm there twice in the farm, but all treat each as a 3 times. we lost over 1000000 birds and markets. you know, you mentioned that your farms have been hit really badly. one of your farms will understand it, got hit twice. how many hens have you lost as a result? and what is the biggest risk thus far to your forms that firm in colorado, we lost 1800000 the 1st time back in may or june. and then we lost in december 1 point 2000000 and the farm but totally back bowl again. and the state of colorado and the us probably lost 90 percent of his chickens. marian and how,

how concerned should we be at this point about all this? well, i think it's quite unprecedented what we're witnessing, and particularly the shift in the global distribution of this particular strain of h. fife, even influenza. so it has shifted from some are localized problem with occasional spread internationally. but now this virus has as dispersed globally in, in the wild bird population. and from there you can continue to see the examples that were mentioned by the previous a speaker, and which, which is of course tragic for the poultry industry. but also the risk that we're looking at from the human house perspective is what if there is further spread into mammals and be seen quite

a few examples of that as well. and i think that's also worrisome. so the sheer opportunity for exposure to the virus is a problem both for the poultry industry and for the that much lower risk. but it is present at 44 and spill over into people. and marion, i want to pick up on a point you're making there. you know, you're talking about this avian influenza that's gone far beyond birds. at this point, this recent spread among members of separate species. it has a lot of experts concerned about the way the virus is changing. how much do we know about how it is notating at this point? and then also, you talked about a being of a low risk at this point for humans, but how much of a risk is there for transmission to humans? at this point, we know that this, this virus descends from a lying of h 5 viruses that we have been seeing and tracking since 1996 when they were 1st detected in china. and since over the years. so that's already

quite some time. we have seen occasional human and sions, $950.00 so far, and the worry is that, so that's not a whole lot. you know, realistically. but those infections have been quite severe. and more than half of the people that had it succumbed to the infection died from the infection. so that's a very so it's a rare situation. but, but the question is, could this change and could this change because the viruses change now for that's what happened. we are looking at spill over into memo and we see nice in different carnivores, where you can still say, well, that is part of what you could expect now, because these animals, they, they may, each, dad are dying burst. the recent example was a big outbreak on

a mink farm in spain. there it is really clear that there also has been transmission between make so from one animal to the next. and that's the kind of situation where we start to worry about new changes of the virus that make it better fit for multiplying into mammals, which the humans also are. there is no mention of that. so there is a few mutations that have been found. indifferent carnivores and including in the me not one of the ones that me from past research know, are really necessary for the human adaptation. but that's what we have to be really on the look out for money or you and your team as i understand it, are working on a vaccine for poultry, for all the various strains of of avian flu or how is that process going thus far?

there are 2 ways to make these vaccines or 3 days. so the one they these all 3 vaccines require like human vaccine. they should be anti genuinely matched to the side lifting feel devices. so, currently because in europe of vaccines are not being made. these are all being used, and therefore there is an all such honey to andy, delicately magic. but in other debauchery, we showed that if you have a and didn't equally match vaccines davenport backed up or pre wind that were conventional vaccine mid you killed the white us and then mix lid that again like a like a conventional good. why does vaccines? so that is another 2 ways. one is the protein based vaccine. we are developing bitch for wired a much higher efficacy. but that is not in the mod kegal norco

discretion and then other vaccine which are registered one chord vector vaccine. they use puppies, why the soft turkey, as a mac turnage is being used to protect poultry from maddox to these. so, by genetically inserting the genes off the slide, us, the new vaccine can be, can be made as well if require. so that, and how the poultry and these are for the 40 vaccine and the w i to also looking for a candidate and then make vaccines, or if in case that require fire humans, so they are testing the similar way. that dish should be the seed should be available and one area which if i'm sorry, i'm sorry to interrupt, but if i could just ask that, where are you will in the process? i mean, how long do you think it might be until these vaccines that you are describing

would be available and in use? so they, they, the good one can be made available any time these companies can make that and then, and then a month. if they require it, so this is the magazine process and these companies are already making for the flu vaccine. for example, though, there is another wider scored at $9.00 and $2.00, many companies around the world they are making and using the whole tree again in from the. so the only thing they need to change is the seed. why this is a high but why this and this cannot be handle on those factories. and because this is a, this to human as well, and i got to do so that need a high containment. but there are a methods which make these wires to a, a law vigilant. why does we call it? can be handled?

and these are these factors, so that you take really foss nowadays. it's for a generic or reverse genetic. why this is john? i'm making the law, these vaccines are using these technology and giving to the 40 on last at least 15 years against that 5. so that technology available. 3 but the other technology, of course, they need a little bit more time to deviate the ground at $5.00 and $1.00 wide us. and to just to, to do stick analogies. marcus. how, how much of a threat dissolves that? does all of this pose to the food supply in the us to the food supply in the rest of the world? and also if you could tell our viewers about, you know, some of the knock on effect of all this, like like how is it impacting egg prices,

for example? well here in the us, the, when we last about 15 percent of our birds, approximately the price of eggs during the holiday peak time period did double triple almost. but that was only for a 6 week period of our day demand. now that the holidays are over, the prices that come down, you know, back to, you know, more reasonable level for consumers. and, you know, what we look at long term is, you know, the world trade restrictions on back. but if we vaccinate the broiler companies, gainesville, the chicken made to china, mexico, and several other countries in the world. and, you know, the, the, there's lots of argument in the scientific community about whether you

vaccinate to die or vaccinate to live. and, you know, in the us, they want to adopt the back that 8 to die. where even if we vaccinate, we'll still have to kill our bird or bird to get it market to be kind of a waste. but if i could also ask you and what kind of precautionary measures are you being asked to take and are you taking on the forms to prevent transmission? what are the steps that you have to take? we are a lot of our facilities are what we call shower and shower out for our people that work with the poultry. you know, we require them to, you know, change your clothes and take a shower. were coming in and you know we, we don't allow any outside people to come to our farm. now. you know, you just have to maintain bio security and, and the tough part for any poetry producer in the world today. the minute they step

outside the door of their hand house and look into the wild. they have to exempt the back up to 20 percent of the species. a bird in the world now are caring a i and that's a problem. you know, we're setting, they're trying to say we, we're not going to catch it when it's in demick around the world. married. i saw you nodding a bit too. oh, what marcus was saying there looks like you want to jump in, so go ahead. yeah. so that exactly and, and think that the big challenge or both of the both reside and for the human health side in the earth. so china has been successfully vaccinating down the circulation both or h 5 and 87, a vin, influenza viruses. but they're the most of the circulation was driven by a circulation in the poultry industry. but now we have this virus

essentially in the wild, which you cannot vaccinate. so that problem is not dealt with. what you can address is spill over from wild birds into, let's say, a baked manc, a humans. and that's a very different challenge and, and from what we've been seeing before in asia, and the discussion on whether or not to vaccinate. poultry is also ongoing in europe. with the same a trait or restrictions there is now movement because also of the, the animal welfare side that a, if you have an occasional introduction, occasional calling of a farm. that's one thing. but if that becomes a weekly routine, that's of course and not a sustainable for form for very different reasons that we're just explained. one

issue that is a discussion is, is this question about, could you a half a? so if you vaccinate poultry, could you have the situation where the virus is circulating, but you don't see it because the birds no longer get sick. that would be a potentially risk increasing for the humans working with those animal. and that's where this question about how good is the match between a vaccine and the virus that you're trying to protect from. how good is that? and that's, that's why those questions are really important in the studies are really important . one here is, is, is the version of avian flu that's causing the most problems. now is that h 5 in one and how many subtypes are there? so, so there are several sub types of at flight i'm, for example, in china. the more prominent was $5.00 and $6.00 and the end middle ease at

$5.00 and $8.00. and then this lie, this gain, some genes, fromage 5 and 8 and other wired work even in terms of why it's also in white bird and become this. is that a at $51.00 which is a fit test? why does of we are seeing in a different respect and term of it? strong mission with the white boards and from why is going to full tree and genetically when we. busy or analyzing the competing, these plots is mid the previous one. we are seeing a signature that this why this is more to fit in term off infection in term office stability ah, in the, in one moment. so this widest gain, some genes here and there,

and become if it does lighter so far, which we are competing with. other term of infection and wired war started in wire board or transmission from wineburg doubletree. at marcus experts have been warning that farmers are going to have to treat the disease as a serious risk all year round. instead of just focusing on prevention efforts during migration seasons for wild birds, are farmers, particularly farmers in the u. s. are they, are they prepared to do this is something that they can do and, and how difficult would that be if something were happening to learn to live with and, you know, is it, you know, long term we may have to go to what, you know, to ill filtered air in houses that you know, that makes the costs the producing ag much higher. and you know, it, with this allow popery being outside. you know, we'd have to have everything contained inside the building and is filtered air and

that takes a lot more energy. you know, it would increase the amount electricity used on a free bar by l. 5 x probably by time. so the, obviously the costs involved for farmers would, would be a lot higher. right? i mean, is that correct? it is a capital cost bill $20.00 or $30.00 a chicken and raise the operational 10 or $0.15. it doesn't it sounds like 10 or $0.15 as cheap, but you know, when you take the amount of eggs that are produced around the world that comes back and you know that an average consumer around the world made by 15 doesn't 20, doesn't the year. so, you know, if you raise the price to our consumers in the world of, or $7000000000.00 of us or have remain there is, you know, if you raise it a dollar that $7000000000.00, we just raise food costs. marian,

i want to talk again with you for a minute about the potential for transmit ability between the birds and humans. how difficult is it for avian flu, to travel directly from birds to humans from, from the reading that i've done. and i'm certainly no expert. it seems as though there needs to be some type of vessel in order for this to happen. what, what does that mean and what is the process like? well, what we know see so far. so this is really not ever ours, that is transmissible between human. that's the big step that we are looking out for. so we do see occasional infections of humans, but that's where it stops. and those have been people that all have had very direct in dance contact with, with birds. so if you have an infected farm or infected bird,

you can expect that to, to have fires in, you know, in the spiritual tract, but also in the stool. and if you have a big flock that is infected them may be viras in the dust. so there's plenty of ways that people can get exposed. the step that is not happening for the virus. and let's hope it will stay that way. is that somehow this virus can be transmitted between people. we know from faster research that that requires some changes. so currently the virus is really our optimal for infection of birth. that is, even the 1st step of that process is different in birds than in people. so we need changes in the virus before that happens as easily and people. now those changes are not a whole lot. there's race and rich days. those can be introduced. we have learned

all from cove. it that viruses that get a lot of room for spread can new date. so the more room for, for that there is, there is the risk of selection of viruses that have some mutations that make them more fit for spreading between people. there's one other step that that is well important to think about of some past, been damaged with influenza, is that we have what is called mixing vessels. and that's the big and, and because we know that peaks can be infected both by even influenza viruses and their own influenza viruses and human influenza viruses. so if this fires would make it into pigs, that would be really

a big problem. and that's why i'm so i'm not so worried for the human health risk about the farm industry influences the u. s. because that is a highly by a secure and regulated sector. but we also have poultry and, and other animal farms in other parts of the world where it is, there's much more open housing, less bio secure, and they can get those in. and that's where i think the focus needs to be in a really increased survey and intakes in mnc. and just to make sure that not something is cooking that, that, that may lead to problems. marian, you mentioned cove in the reaction to that. are there lessons that we've learned from the coven? i team pandemic? that could prepare us all better to deal with another potential pandemic. and also,

are we more worried at this stage about avian flu? because of the coven, i think pandemic. i mean it. is there any sense of this being more alarm as than it needs to be? so this is, i think is, is an excellent question. but this is the tough lajna. or we have so far really been responding to emerging diseases. we've seen that again, risk of it that so the 1st signal was people getting sick and then we'll need to respond. and we've seen what happened and that it's really difficult if you have a virus that's already very transmissible. it's very difficult to really contain that. now the big question is kimmie, be ahead of that to her. and that means asking the question, what are the threats out there that, that we know off and what can we do to, to prevent this from happening?

so that's where we're at with asian as to for media traffic. i don't think so, but i don't know it could be, but it is exactly this step that i think we need to learn how to, what does this mean? how do we step up our well bye, a security our check our protocols for the situation that this would become transmissible to human, avi, ready for that? i think that's the question that we all should ask because we have learned that if we don't prepare the wait until an average like this starts, then the sort of nap is very high time responding to it. when we only have about a minute and a half left. so just very briefly, ab fluids become endemic for the 1st time and some wild birds that transmit the

virus to poultry. so how much worse does that make the situation? this is very vase in thermal. the 40, as you can see, the and u. k. a much the every day we are a sing at least a one on break. and previously only once or you can see um frontal told an aid to too tall then ah, for being we may have only one back to when they turn in one we, we may have a 5 or 6. so it is really, really bust because off these wireless has been now becoming dynamic and wired board and not really a wild board, which i'm likely to, but it is in that as a dirt wired wired beach do. not white it, barked germaine, they didn't. the boundary and doc's doc mean the widest is assisting, invited one moment and as long as the widest is assisting in that one moment,

then certainly today stood up or g, i a is a huge. all right, but we have run out of contour going to happen the conversation there. thanks so much. all of our guests. marcus rust, marian copeland's and when eric ball and thank you for watching, you can see the program again any time by visiting our website or 0 dot com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com forward slash ha, inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter handle is at e j inside story management room in the whole team here. life ah ah

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