why spread? as the rain turns, the snow pushing its way across the bolt. its dice process goes, come back a bit high temperatures around 18 celsius. that immediate madrid, a chance to water. 2 showers into space might still see one or 2 shafts into the north west of africa, but for most is fine and dry. ah, in syria citizens are collecting evidence, a show of crimes committed against civilians. we've moved out of syria now about $600000.00 pages of material so that one day they can bring the aside regime to justice. it puts a human face on the charges. it's a dead human face, but it's a human face. syria. witnesses for the prosecution on al jazeera scotlands 1st minister nicholas sturgeon has announced her resignation. some blame her for not achieving independence from the united kingdom. but where does this

leave scotland separatist movement? this is inside story. ah. hello and welcome to the program. i'm mammograms room the search is under way to find a successor for scotlands, 1st minister nicholas sturgeon. she announced her resignation on wednesday after more than 8 years on the job. the scottish national party is meeting to discuss the rules for a leadership contest to replace her. and while a choose is a new road ahead. a conference aimed at reviving a push for independence from the united kingdom has been postponed. we'll get to our discussion in a moment. first, this report from laurie challenz and edinburgh. for years nicholas sturgeon seemed as solid as off his seat. the ancient volcano that towers over edinburgh. but political and geological errors both end office seat stopped erupt. thing 340000000

years ago. sturgeon's power disappeared with her resignation announcement last wednesday. good morning everyone. so the scottish national party is now looking for a new leader and a new path. they are now in a state of flux, and the key question for them is what do you do about independence? what's the independent strategy? andy mckeever is a political analyst who watches scottish politics closely. it comes back to the decision that the u. k. supreme court made the backend of last year, where they said the scottish parliament did not have the power to hold a referendum by itself. nicholas surgeon's answer to that question was what she called the defect to referendum. in other words, she boutique a national election like the general election that we expect next year. and she would turn that into a vote on independence, but many in the s n p. so this is too risky, and it looks like the tactic is now dead in the water. a special party conference

where sturgeon would have argued for it has been called off for now. appetite for an imminent rerun if the 2014 referendum is falling. and recent polls suggest pro independence has become a minority view. once again, nicholas sturgeon's exit may further erode support. i hope it does. why? because i want independent. you understand. so, what are your hopes for who's next to what i can do? i don't know how come is going to show her last mistake will put back cause for independence because there's never been more than 50 percent. the don't those many of them will. i think vote to stay in the union because we've lost the european union. probably don't want to lose longest union in the world, whoever's next will have to reinvigorate the independence cause and fend off

opposition, party sensing, and opportunity. the race for a new s and p leader and scottish 1st minister doesn't yet have a clear front runner. candidates have until friday to wednesday, and then it's a 6 week contest with the members having until the end of march to make their choice. a choice that will usher in a new political age for scotland. rory challenz al jazeera edinburgh. ah, ah, let's go and bring in our guests. they're all joining us from scotland. in emperor miles briggs, a member of the scottish parliament for the scottish conservative party in the isle of sky in blackford, a scottish national party member in the u. k. parliament. and also in edinburgh. mark defi, a pollster and director of the different partnership, a research and consultancy firm, a warm welcome to you all and thanks much for joining us today on inside story. and let me start with you today. nicholas sturgeon has been such a force in scottish politics for so long and such

a key figure for so long. how big of a shock was the announcement that she's resigning? a surgeon has been the 1st minister since 2007 to become a 1st minister in 2014. i guess people what we are that we're approaching the, the end of her tenure in the leadership rather than perhaps being in the middle of it. so i guess in some respects we all knew that at some point that it would be, would be moving. and i think the timing, it was a bit of a shock. i have to say that i, i regret that she's done what she's done. i understand absolutely why. i want a small group of people have some conversations, whether leading up to this i cancelled it against doing so, but yeah, i think being an office for your 1st minister in scotland. anything other than all the ministrations, whether you're prime minister in the u. k. this is something that's all consuming.

it's 247, see $165.00 days a year. you don't have a private life to any great extent toll. so i totally understand that in the light of, you know, what she has been thinking of all the questions that you have been in the office that is right for her to move on to the next 2 years and have a from a proponent for independence. so she's not going away, but it signals that she's moving on to the next, the next chapter and her life. and i'm sure everybody but want to wish i have the best wish. i think she has been an outstanding 1st minister. and i think in particular, when we think of that is of the cool, the outbreak of the press conference on behalf of the government coming into our living rooms up. and i just thought perhaps being seen elsewhere around the world as we are giving, i think very clear, guidance, and leadership to people. at that point, i think we can be very grateful for the role that plays miles. were you surprised

by nicholas sturgeon's resignation? and what does this mean for the political landscape in scotland? i think like you said, i think the whole political community in scotland were surprised. i think. and people did maybe imagine that she would go after the next, you know, general action, which is time for next year. and, but this was a bit of a shock. it wasn't something which i think any journalist either to be quite honest and expected to be happening. and i think this does present an opportunity for a reset, though in scottish politics and for the scottish parliament especially in which nicholas started his dominate to disperse minister for 8 years. and, you know, since it was established has been high level within the s m. p. so i think there is an opportunity for parties to look to and we move forward as a country, but we also politically and get back to normal politics. it's got the not always through the constitutional at prism of division and grievance. and i think me personally, i hope that that's an opportunity for all parties to say

a new vision for scotland as well. mark, does this resignation constitute any kind of a crisis for the scottish government? i don't think it's, i mean, i think it does mean assuming you mean in kind of public attitude, an opinion terms it's it's, it's very early to say the have been that been 2 or 3 snap polls are being taken since the 1st minister resigned earlier this week and they tell us kind of conflicting things and in some ways they tell us that actually the gap between the s and pay and the other parties is pretty much as large as it has been in terms of people's voting preferences. and they have obviously been a dominant party for that very long time in that regard. one poll have the gap between the s and p and labor closing a fair bit. but, you know, these are taken in the immediate aftermath of something which, you know, does in miles of radi said was, was quiet, of course,

causing event. and i think it's going to take us a little while and that people like me to carry out an exam and pulling data to really work out what they, what the impacts of this is going forward. that will be an impact. and that will be, there will be, i think this is a moment of significant change for the country, but some, but what impact is going to bay and who's going to benefit from this week is it is a bit premature to, to be sure about and where do things stand currently when it comes to finding a new leader for the s and p? as we understand the meetings are, are happening and how will the next leader of the party be chosen? and are there any clear successors waiting in the wings? but i think over the course of the next 30 days and expect people to formally declare that sunday, i suspect that we have a small number of people that will be coming forward. it is a democratic party. the scottish national parties,

every member will have to say not every member will have one of the things that we so after the referendum in 2014 that the, i think the membership has increased quite dramatically. so i think it's going to be interesting just to see how the shape. so how things that takes place and you know, miles talk about lisa, i think it is the key that with any you leader, any you 1st minister of course they will put their own standpoint things. and of course i will be focus on the domestic agenda. i way across the public services, but you know, i think one of the things when people talk about constitutional to be much of that to be the substance that i for end of the 2014 has been stuck on a discussion of process. and of course that's, that's important, i think in terms of winning the hearts and minds, seeing a change in support for independence, one way or the other will really be based on the economic arguments for independence. and i think we will see where the coming period is. that to be a use for example, that almost clean energy opportunity that we haven't,

scott and i publish that, or just that recently indicating that we have the opportunity to increase our green energy cycle between now and 2015 on behalf of the s and p actually next week, i'll be launching a, a program to my scotland green industrial future. and we really need to set a sustainable economic growth in scotland and my, my challenge to those on, on the other side as well. let's, let's get you not to be, let's, let's see each other. let's treat the public with respect and have that to be about how we deliver for the scope and how to be good, the economy. how do we get the taxes and our public services the way that we want. and i hope the what we have over the coming here, it is on the to the gate. this is debbie. i can see that the, the form of 1st minister will certainly do that. a must portal as well. and since you mentioned the independence movement, i, i didn't want to get to that with you. you know, after the u. k. supreme court's decision of 1st mister sturgeon said she would back

using the next general election as a de facto referendum. that was something that was considered to be controversial. i want to ask you if you think that that is a viable strategy going forward. and also there was supposed to be a conference in march aimed at reviving a push for independence from the u. k. that as we understand it has been postponed, is that going to be rescheduled and do you think that will be sooner rather than later? yes, it will be settled and it will be sooner rather than later. but i think it's right when you're going through an election for a new leader, the new leader is able to express their views on the way i have. one of the things i'll say to have it. i regret that we're in the position that we're in because our sales degrees, we went into the scottish collection of 2021 with manifest ultimate. and if we won that we will deliver an independence referendum. and what we see is that westminster is, is effectively saying no, they will not consent to the demands of the scottish parliament,

independent majority. does that and that's a not context that you find this to be a defect to referendum. you know, reverend will come and future will be decided. i think it's better than that sooner rather than later. but what we will do is that we will seek to explore the best way of achieving that. setting alongside that, as i said, we need to have that to be about how we transform the economy of scott, but hope the drive up investment, how we deal with the the social challenges that we see. so an essence, i think will be both these things over the, the period ahead and the conference that we will have once you leave the light. well, also that you leader to, to exactly what the way ahead is for the scottish national party. and perhaps my extension the way dependent miles mister in scotland, longest serving 1st minister. she said when she announced a resignation that she had become too polarizing a figure to continue after 8 years in the role. do you think that assessment is

correct? had she become too polarizing a figure? i think it is right what she said, and i think oh polling suggests, and if you're a support request or you're against her and the people it's gotten really bad. their minds up on her personally to be quite honest. but i think the, the opportunity is 1st to try to look towards the parliament. her scottish politics is moving forward because we've been stuck, as i've said in this constitutional hold for too long. i think for what i hope is that opportunity presents itself for people to take a look like can canada as well, where after a period of division and constitutional division, people decide that they want to move on in normal politics resumes, which i hope as the 2nd largest party in scotland and the conservative party can capitalize on that and try to attract more support as well. miles if, if i could, if i could also ask you, you know,

where does this leave things when it comes to the u. k as a whole? because there are some saying that this would benefit certain political parties that it would help the cohesiveness as the u. k. where to things stand on that front. well, i think it's too early to tell what i can say and, you know, my own party has had maybe too many leadership elections recently at the but they are brutal things. and i think for the s and p, they're about to embark on and number of weeks of what is often a divisive leadership election. and i fully expect at the end of that depending on who wins that election, people in the s and p to probably leave that party because they don't want that leader in place. so i think that the union and the silent majority of people who want to see is state park the united kingdom in scotland. i think they certainly and that the union feel storm stronger and safer with nicholas sturgeon. especially mr. mark, i do have a question for you, i'll get to you in just a minute and i, i saw you react to miles was saying there's, i'm going to give you

a chance to jump in right now. yes. the end of the day as an independent follow, we sent people to the power to represent user concessions. and one of these days, the conservative party should say that those that support independence one, the election of 2021 is right that we have that restaurant people have the same look, there is a way spread believe leading the european union has been an enormous economic cost to us, people are desperate to find a way back to this is not going to go away. supporting the independence is not just about nicholas and not just about the s and p is about the which is the aspirations of the disclosed people and so on the light, wherever, prime ministers and 10 downing street going to have to respect democracy in the right to the people of scotland to choose their own future market. where does public opinion in scotland currently stand on the issue of scottish independent. but it stands where broadly speaking, where it has stood for quite some time,

which is that we are pretty much to sickly, split down the middle on the issue. and even though the, the 2 or 3 poles being conducted since the 1st minister's resignation this we can have confirmed, right? so the latest one out says, you know, december and labor or independence of 51 percent are against the idea independence, which in my world is a pretty washer right search. and i suspect is right, you know, this is not an issue that he's going, that is not an issue that is going to go away. you know, the polar nonsense that the resignation would tend to, would tend to support. i do think however into if we, if we're looking forward and we're looking to what the opportunities are here, i think is both in a miles have eluded so we've been kind of stuck on the process of this. now for quite some time. we've done less about debating all the pros and cons of

independence and been absolutely focused on you know, what's the route to another referendum blocking another referendum and actually, well, i think that the, this the resignation, the 1st minister this week office the, the new leader of the s and pay and of course, and you 1st minister, whoever that says to perhaps because he and the mentioned earlier can try and try and move the argument to the debate itself rather than to the process. and i think that would be a good thing to be honest. miles, it looked to me like you were reacting to what mark was saying there. did you want to jump in? no. i think one of the key parts which i'm really being discussed during this was nicholas surgeon's own strategy around this, which was a de facto referendum that conference. and which was going to, i think rubber stumble has now been cancelled. but i don't think for the independence movement in scotland necessarily. they have answered the questions

which continue to hang over them in terms of the white paper which was presented to people in scotland. 2014. they don't think it moved on. and i do think there is a need for the s n p to, to regroup, to look actually where they go with independence and period of time. my office is probably the healthiest period to do that. so i think we just didn't see where the independence movement and people in scotland when it's beyond the s m p. m. actually maybe this is a time for them to really look at where the s m p have been taking and that project and not moving very far. and i see you shaking your head there, miles the saying that it's time for the s and p to maybe take a step back. i have a moment of reflection. what do you say? well, of course i never take for granted, but i think it was as we pointed over, so right and quite high in the pool. so let's wait and see. but, you know, my offer took 2 miles and everybody else on the union side was about to be spoken about the, the end of the paper i released just a few short months ago,

the potential to go from 12 to gigawatts of green energy to create more than 325000 jobs by 2050. they use that green energy as a basis, i believe and feel future. we will mark what we believe the opportunities, right. i am, frankly a 2nd bye. are record a long period of time, but not being able to deliver sustainable economic. what that goes right back to the fifty's. if you look at a relative population that you see every decade is decline. i want to change that. so that's something that has to be what are they the roadmap? so increasing economic growth, dealing with the social challenges that we face my message to those on the other side and join us and that to be must have multiple vision. and you know that the majority of language is used. let's trim the elect to the we should be treated less, pete. each other was hung up to be of a scotland future. yeah. mild, go ahead. see,

want to jump and go. your i do agree with the and i think it's refreshing to hear what you saying about the paper he's published and, and that work. i don't know, we did the independence though to have that debate. these are the dates i want to see in the scottish parliament and we haven't really had that space. so what is government has very little legislation. they're bringing forward in this session either. so i think there is a need for a refresh, for the new 1st minister to get back to basics, to look at their records and in scotland. some of the major challenges which this government have presided over drug tests be the payment gap and via the chest, which is currently facing huge difficulties, are transport system and is also needing that focus. and we need to politically, as a political community and scotland get back to these issues. and now we see the through the constitutional prism, actually we've got the parents, we've got the opportunity to transform scotland without scottish parliament. and i hope the new 1st minister takes that up and reaches of cross poverty divides as well. my own party has about 15 bills currently were developing. and this

government will, i think, find a lot of common ground with what we want to see, be it from domestic abuse to other reforms. so i hope this is a chance for the new 1st minister to get back to their job of being 1st minister, and to actually bring the country together on these key policy areas as well. so mark, i'm curious to get your point of view on this because what you're hearing essentially to, to members of the political class in scotland essentially saying that a healthy debate needs to be had. but the fact of the matter is that politics have become more polarized in scotland, so will constituents allow this debate to actually happen or will it be politics is usual going forward? if you have a society where in, you know, half members are for independence and half aren't, you know what, how do you move forward from that? well, it's a good question and that's one of the key challenges. i think the new leader will face. i mean, there is beyond the constitutional question, there is

a significant in tre, off issues that the new, the new leader on the new 1st minister will need to deal with. and this includes thing. the agenda recognition, the gender of recognition reform includes things like the new deposit, the term scheme. and the new recycling scheme includes as models, which is look about problems with the, with the check somewhere, whether education and social, what people, what public expect is for the 1st minister, whether that is to be able to deal with, with all these issues. i think if you ask people and there's a lot of police evidence around which of what most concerned, you know, what you care most about, you know, at the moment is the state of the, the economy and things like rising prices. the cost of living wages, not wages and salaries, not going up in line with, with the cost of living and states of the states of the national health service.

now that is not to say that people do not care about the constitutional issue. people people care deeply about it and actually 80 percent of the off the population has a very fixed view on the concentration. so about 40 percent will probably always stay in the union about 40 percent will loads for independence. immovable, which leads about 20 percent of people in the middle kind of persuade one direction or another and a bracket. that's quite big reason why we all kind of stuck on this stuff on this issue because you know, these on a, it's an attitude towards pretty fix. have been been talking about it the last you know, 1015 years market. let me, let me just follow up with you about that. i mean, from your point of view, has any scottish liter been able to rally the pro independence movement? the way that miss sturgeon did, and does the departure of miss sturgeon mean? that those advocating for scottish independence are running out of chances to make

it a reality. well, the 31st question is it depends where your starting point is, right? so i think if you, if you looked at where to choose to independence that say a year out from the referendum send it to mid 2013. they were somewhere around 30 to 35 percent. and of course within a year they went up to 45 percent and in terms of the results of the referendum, and that was that point. it was examined that was leading both the s and pay. it was minister. i'm the leader of, of the yes campaign, the prior independence campaign. now, you know, since then what we've seen is, broadly support for the pen. this has gone on, since that's what we're about to 5050. that have been periods, particularly during covered when the minister was seen as doing a very good job, particularly in comparison to the prime minister and in the, in the k at the time. well, you know,

support from the pendants was in the sort of mid, mid fifty's for a sustained period of time, but it's now about 5050. so i think you know that both the, both the 2 previous ministers complain some success in bringing support for independence to the lady is at the moment in terms of your 2nd question. well, i think it depends who the next leader is of what they decide. what they decide to do with this, i mean, i think we can be, we can, can continue to be sort of very broke down in the process. you know, do we want to the fact, you know, do want to treat an election as a factor referendum? what we got instead of in terms of relations with the mark, mom and trying to mark mark, i'm sorry, i'm so sorry to interrupt you. we're just starting to run out of time. i just want to get one last question into e, and we have about a minute and a half to f d. and i want to ask you from your vantage point, what is nicholas surgeon's legacy going to be? i don't like to support for independence increase before the 2014 reference

to some extent, since then as well. i think what nicola has done has left very strong foundations for the next leader to build up on both in terms of looking at a western selection like to come next year. and i think the ability to then strengthen the argument. so it depends. let's, let's deliver on, on the domestic agenda. let's improve. he's not very happy with that. we will build the, the economic suspension depends about the arguments, the democratic arguments as to why slots should be an independent country. all right, we have run out of time, so we're going to have to leave the conversation there. thanks so much. all of our guests mark deeply as briggs and in blackboard. and thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website or dot com. and further discussion go to our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter, handle it at ha, inside store for me and how many times on the whole team here in doha bye for now. a

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