passion for supporting local communities and pioneering innovative african science and technology projects. college. how beautiful. how glorious are all of us on this planet. look just africa out to sierra full. as a leading bar chemist. determined to use his scientific knowledge to serve africa. women make science from the lab to the field on now to sierra we understand the differences and similarities of cultures across the world. so no matter how you take it will bring you the news and current affairs that matter to you. oh, hello i marianna mozy in london, just a quick look at the main stories now and migrants from guinea have been repatriated home from tunisia as saying they were living in hell off to a crackdown on undocumented migrants that was ordered by the president chi psi aid

last month he accused them of causing violence, crime and unacceptable acts and ordered their expulsion since then, many have lost their jobs and housing and have been reports of racist violence, ivory coast and guinea of san especially chanted plains to bring back their citizens from tunisia. guinea as condemned uneasy of what it calls the degrading treatment of migrants. while the african union has warned against hate speech. vulgar, who, the situation has been very difficult and tenicia. we live in health. we don't go wild. people who have papers are free to go out when we go out the ketchup and put us in jail. people talk about repatriation. normally they send you to the airport, but they have prepared a special prism for sub saharan. when they catch you, they said you did. there are many good means who are in prison. the main opposition alliance and takia is in turmoil after a key member of the 6 party team signal it's pulling out of the block. the alliance is in disagreement of

a huge your point. is that joint candidate to contest the presidential poll in may, some has your new has more from ankara. today we heard the 2nd largest position far to leader met alex, who also ran and who also was an interior miss there during the late 19th. and she said that she is, i guess is because she says, according to the public opinion polls, chemical role as an opposition candidate doesn't have my chance. and, and this is all on the polls. i'm kind of mayor monthly about someone made him a model in the polls come out as potential arrivals against present ardon. that rushes, wagner mercenary group, says the besieged ukrainian city of boston, which is almost completely surrounded. russian troops have intensified shelling of access roads to the west, making it harder for ukrainian forces to move in and out. in a video addressed a president lansky the wagner chief, getting forgotten call for the town to be evacuated,

to save the lives of ukrainian soldiers. victory and back much would give russia its 1st major when in 6 months the kremlin is saying it will take measures to prevent a repeat of a bordering cause unit claims occurred on thursday. president, let him appreciate the ukrainian sabotage unit shots civilians on russian territory close to the border. russia saying one person was killed and a child wounded. keith says the claim is false and a provocation has been no independent confirmation of this. ragna d. d is in brians on the russian cranium, florida, and found this update. and none of it seems like the boot and brush president has held a closed door meeting with members of the country security council to discuss ways of protecting important national institutions from what he calls terrorism. oscar has described what it says we're talks on southern border villages by ukrainians. arbiters on thursday as acts of terrorism to border villages remain cordoned off. the russian armed forces are reported to have pushed ukrainian,

sabotaged groups away from the villages. operations are ongoing and russian forces are removing explosives and mines. the crumbling says the weapons used to attack the 2 border villages were obtained by the craniums from nato. russia will react soon, and the perpetrators will be punished. it says, investigations are ongoing and measures will be taken to prevent such attacks in the future. therefore, the border between russia and ukraine extends for thousands of kilometers. and there are also large forests that are difficult to control and monitor completely. columbia's government has sent a high level delegation to try and calm protests at an oil facility after a police officer and a civilian were killed. they were taken hostage by protest, as in the southern province of coquette on thursday. a go shaped as a trying to broke the release of 79, all the officers and 9 oil field workers. and the navient coast got in the philippines, a searching for a sunken tank of it's creating a huge oil spill. the slick now measures more than 24 square kilometers and it's

growing. the empty princess empress sank on tuesday. there are fears, most of the 800000 liters of diesel fuel on board has yet to leak from its tanks. steve clemons is coming out next with the bottom line. ah, i am steve clements. i have a question as country's pile up massive debt and the planet heats up an old style wars breakout and politics becomes more toxic at home and abroad. do we have any real chance of coming out? ok, let's get to the bottom line. ah, even before the corona virus pandemic, it was obvious that something wasn't quite right with the economy either here in the america or around the world. there used to be confidence that the next

generation would be better off than the last one. but nowadays folks aren't so sure . are we in the middle of a perfect storm that doesn't end well with so much debt? and with a gap between rich and poor getting worse, andy, warming planet and job killing technology on the way. and a globe dividing rivalry between china and the u. s. with people scared about their jobs and their future and governments that don't want migration and don't want free trade anymore. or we already in the era of the globalization, or at least slow bill is ation as my guess today, cause it was so many interconnected future of the world questions we need to think through. we're talking today with someone who can help us understand where we are going. he is the economist, serial rubini, professor at new york university and author of mega threats 10 dangerous trends that imperil our future and how to survive them. well, you know, one of the things you write very compellingly about neural in this great book and i'll tell everybody read this book. it's just an eye opener on so many massive,

significant threats, not just financial. we're talking about right now. but climate change a i other dimensions, but you knew the late paul volcker? well, i happen to know paul volcker well, and in some senses he was the hero of a moment of coming out of an era of stagflation and you write that we may be entering an another area when we already be in an era of stagnation. what's wrong with, or why shouldn't we hope for another paul volcker to come raise interest rates to a to a crippling level, to kill the fatness in the lethargy in the economy and the bad stuff? the why do you not think that there aren't heroes that come do the right things to get us out of this? you know, threat driven future. we have i think is unlikely for the following reasons, not in the 907 days. we had the negative supply shocks. they all the shock of 973 with the yom kippur war between is that i'm out of state. the 2nd all shocked in

1979 falling day islamic evolution in iran elect to inflation and recession. by that time u. s. in advance economy is glad with in public that there's a shortage in the was only a 100 percent. so we got inflation. we got the recession, we got speculation, but when vulgar high interest rate to 20 percent, we did not have at that price in the u. s. in europe, where the one in latin america does that borrowed like crazy in the seventy's. and of course when bulkhead jacked up interesting to 20 percent mexico, argentina. but as a default, that's after the global financial crisis is where the much higher levels of that household, that housing, that bank, that but where the negative demand shock a credit crunch. so that, that, but we have a deflation. and therefore, we could do massive monetary, fiscal and credit easing to save their calling me in the markets to them.

fortunately, where the worst of the 7 days were wide range are booked short term and mid term negative aggregate supply shocks. there will reduce production and growth and increased cost of production, speculation. but now we have that ratios that are much higher than even after the g, f c. and because inflation is rising, we cannot into these economic downturn, interest rates where do the opposite. the fred and the others and their bands are increasing them to fight inflation. so we have their worst of the seventy's in terms of speculation, re shocks and they're worse of they are global financial crisis in terms of unsustainable debts. but now we have raising interest rates, so central banks are them. if you do and damage, they don't. if they do increase interest rates enough to fight inflation. and the fed will have to go up to 5, but well above 6 because of how persistent inflation is. we can cause both their

higher landing of the yellow economy and the financial market crash because we've interested the 6 percent households, mortgages credit card to the loans. all the loans business forms for business says corporate bonds. and of course, even public that are going to become unsustainable. so we'll have an economy crash in the financial crisis, feeding on each other. and if instead the fed where to blink, we empower and say, we don't want to causes economic and financial crisis. and they do not increase interest rates and apps to fight inflation. they like the seventy's. we are behind that curve. given this shocks, we have a d, anchoring of inflation expectation. we create their wage price spiral, and when the match highly inflation. and eventually we supply shocks, we do not avoid the recession with up a game into speculation. so either way,

we are in travel, given the shocks and given the much higher amounts of that compared to the 7 days. but even compared to the past that gfc periods, now you are creatively referred to sometimes as doctor doom. and you've said you don't like that term. you prefer a doctor realist. and in this and i'll tell our audience now if you think that neural rubini was pessimistic with what we've just talked about way too. you hear about climate change a i, demography ships, all these other component pieces that we're dealing with in our g o. economic and geopolitical ecosystem and the interconnectedness of them. and i love you to share it with our audience. it's a lot to talk about. it's a very compelling dense book. but what are these other factors that actually make it very hard for political systems to respond that you say, or, or other mega threats, that even if we get the finance side, right,

we're dealing with other dimensions that could really capsize us. well, as you pointed out in the book, in addition to economic monastery and financial risk, i talk about those that are connected to these economic and financial rates, but they're not directly. so one of them, of course, is the risk of a cold war is getting cold, that in all course, among the great powers that are all armed with nuclear weapons. and we have a bunch of reviews on his powers, china, russia, north korea, iran. the tara collies, of course, with us, europe, and the west. we could divert non conventional uncomfort them on great powers. ah war, heartwarming ukraine is already getting worse. is around might striking around these here. given the rod is becoming trash, look our state and the cold war between us and china is getting cold there by the day. and is only matter of time will be

a come from based on the issue of taiwan. that's one sense of race. second, ma'am, of course, global climate change is becoming a disaster with acceleration in their rise in temperature and the economy and financial damage from climate change across the world. those of examples of what's happening today. it's a disaster. we realize now that severe a global and then makes made or occur. cor, 19 for many reason is not going to be the last nor the most virulent. and while a i can increase, they can amik by eventually it leads to carmen and they come out to go unemployment among routine jobs that are blue color initially. but them white color jobs that are cognitive, that can be slice, and a series of our commit that task, and even some of the creative jobs, given the new generative ai techniques will be eventually outcome. and it, it will also increase the income and why the quality because this,

the clouds are captive intensive scale by us and labor saving. so if you on that copy, tell you the, well, if you are the top 10 percent distribution of scale, it makes it more productive. but everybody as garage is going to challenge that in common jobs. and finally, they can always manifest based on of these rising in the quality economic malaise. young generation fema be worse off than their parents as a backlash against liberal democracy and radical outdoor retired in violent parties. populous parties of the extreme right or the extreme left are coming to power. both in advance to call them is an emerging markets. now, i said that things are worse than this seventy's. and worse than that aust, gypsy period. when somebody mentions things out, even worse than 103rd of these in those 30 years, with the 1914 and 945, in spite of the 1st. so our globalization is 5 of the 1st in that's

a revolution. we did not prevent one, then where the spanish flu then where the stock market crash of 29. then the beginning of the great depression, then inflation, deflation, hyperinflation, tre, doors, currency wars, financial rises, massive defaults, unemployment, 25 percent. and then where the rise to power of knobs in germany, fashion is in italy, franklin, spain, and me the thirty's in japan. then red war will to and where the holocaust but as bad as those 30 years where there today for a major new mega threats that did not even exist at that time. at that time we didn't have to worry about climate change in the thirty's. we don't have to worry about a i destroying job. so the computer had not even been invented. you know, at that time within an unfunded liability coming from aging. you know,

we're just create the social security and the average worker would die the age of 60, before he or she could get the 1st page tracked at 62 and as ugly as the war. little one in world war 2, where you are mostly conventional wars, was only again a word or 2 when lucky it was the u. s. rather than that, the, or the japanese will be of the bomb. and unfortunately, where to use it in the regime. and i guess i could when or will to but if to they, there will be a conflict among major power. they are all armed with nuclear wrap rooms that and that conventional war with easily and very fast escalate into unconventional. and you could have a nuclear winter that could wipe out a good chunk of humanity. so by some standards, the current that geo political depression is more dangerous in at least for 2 dimensions than even the obvious 5 we had within 19141945. so what you're

talking about is a trap that were in that even proactive positive steps can open the way for other problems. and i'd love you to share with my m, i reading that right. and, and how hard is it to escape? and that trap to deal with that so that this bleak future and we have any chance of escaping this bleak future that you write about you're right. but i point out in a chapter that it may be solutions to each one of these threads. but that as a column is no, there is no free lunch. most of the solution imply cos and sacrifices in the short run for the common good domestic and global over them in the long term. and unfortunately, the economy of both democracy and i'll talk or see is kicking the can down the road

because politicians would do the sacrifices in the short run are not going to be in power or be kicked out of power over time. and therefore, we tend to not doing what's necessary. that's one of a big dilemma where facing so there are problems that are solution. the question is where that they're likely to be implement that or not. and i gave several examples on climate change. i, why don't we do the right thing? that is mis 5 constraints. one is that in place like you asked, half of the can, 3 doesn't believe in human driven climate change. so when that empower the reverse mark, we need to do sagel. and there is any interest, there is some conflict. i'm 65, i'll be lucky if i leave another 30 years. a young person born today, he or she will leave us with on that years. the young, the vote, the old vote. and even the young guy, the willing to do the sacrifice as to reduce their carbon footprint. today we

should all become vega, we should all install solar panel, insulate our homes that don't use plastic, even the younger. i'm not willing to do it international and you have a free ride. the problem. if it comes, you are to do all the effort and cost to cut the mission to 0 and nobody else does it. they don't get any benefits. they missions are global and they pay the cost and call the main thing i green $200.00 candidate who right thing is mission impossible . then there's a conflict with important that is why the timing china and india cut your emission to 0 in the next 20 years. the way want to do in europe and us, they say you credit is problem for the last 200 years. 90 percent of the cumulative is stored in stock of emission comes from our industrial revolution and we trade this problem in our family border countries remain poor, don't go to catch every mission 0 in the next 20 years. they say no way, we're not going to do it. we're going to raise them until we've called me that

class or reach. and then we're going to deal with this problem. unless you bribe asked me to give us a 3 number of transfer subsidies a year. u. s. congress is a part for being done, spare to change. no money in that account is going to do that for, for be done. you need to train them. and finally, it will the global drive only us and china don't agree on how to deal with on that makes and was that talk for each the only agree on how to deal with economic and financial stability. they don't agree on free trade. that on agree of course on global security, very hard to agree on climate change. that's why there is so much greenwashing greenwashing, green fig leaves. most of the investments are just the fig leaf than not really is the some all in favor with dealing with environment of disaster because with don, we're going to destroy the planet, but at least 5. and i give another 5 or 10 how to say obstacles and constraints on

doing what's desirable. so the reality is that what is likely to happen, unfortunately, is going to be very different from what's gonna necessary to happen. that's why corporate glasgow called and that trauma shake we're told on cope out what on the way, not to 1.5, not to to one all the way to 2.5, possibly 3 degrees above a plain. that's their level, even to as a disaster. 2 and a half is kind of a think through the end of our planet. that's what we're facing right now. you know, one of the challenges you write out about is, is the u. s. dollar losing its role as the reserve currency of the world. and you said that really is, you know, correlated with nations that are powerful you will kind of look at china rising larry summers. the former treasury secretary once said, don't worry about this. europe museum. japan's and nursing home and china is a jail as a way to say we're going to be fine. whereas larry summers wrong is wrong because

the world is going to be divided into major sphere of influence. one around us, europe, the west and our friends and allies, and one around china rush, north korea, iran, pakistan, and many companies that are doing much more business and trade we china, than they do with the west. and i said they try needs model of state job surveys, men of surveillance. so when i have a decoupling of the global economy to separate economic trading, financial investment, technological and also social police to go see stems. one are on the west, one around china, and therefore the chinese are going to increasingly want to replace that u. s. dollar when they do trade with their friends and allies. ah, and use that in b and already garage only doing it because you know, as the saying goes,

if i owe you a b loan is my problem. if i were your 3 don't, is your problem. and chinese are holding $13.00 for and reserves in us dollar treasury's. but lucky i've been for russia where we seize the doors that foreign assets of russia, where they are in dollar euro, but it's on the chinese are warded that as well in a collision course, weed them on taiwan. eventually we're going to do the same. so they're going in finding their friends and allies, let him voice oil in the middle east in our, in b, let me pay you in our m b. why don't you hold some of your reserves into i b and so on and so on. and i'm making inroads, steady, lance loading rods on me. so the doll is not going to be, it is gonna remain a reserve currency, but from 8 unit paula world where it is dollar dominance, 2 thirds of all transaction and of reserve currency is dollar. when i go with bipolar was one center, they are on the us $1.01 cent of the iran. they are in be that the cobbling

fragmentation and bulk of his ation of the global economy becomes also at the coupling and fragmentation off the global reserves and currency sees them. i want to quickly show our audience a photograph of a house you write about ah, that was built through a i and 3 d printing. ah, and 2 people to human beings built this home in remarkable time with machines. and, and i just want to give you an opportunity neural to talk about the benefits that are going to come with technology and advancement and what we should be scared is, heck, about certainly a i machine learning robot thing, alto may sharon, quantum related technology eventually is going to increase the columbia pi potential growth is going to become much higher. what not yet? seeing it in the aggregate micro to give the numbers. there's only matter of time.

that's that positive side of it. so there will be more goods and services much cheaper. the dark side is most people, 3 that match some of the one increasingly massive, permanent, technological unemployment. initially, blue color routine jobs, then white color, cognitively of jobs. eventually given that general d, b, i even creative jobs. secondly, this technology is our cab. them intensive skill buys the labor saving if you on the machine or the capitals on the machine you'll do well. if you're in the top, maybe 15 percent of this revision of scales, education, human copied out, probably day, i make sure for the time being more productive. but if you're a low value out there or median by rod, that blue color white color, increasingly your job, any of is going to track them by technology. that's why eventually we need you be i

universe of basic income. but then what's a system where people dont have it, they can do of work that essentially effectively like parasites or steve and welfare check for light. is it sustainable or what are the consequences socially and politically bad? it said you stop your future wanting. which essence, i mean 95 percent of people leave on u b. i is not a utopian future in my view. finer thing, more psychological innovation than i usually buy. some governments want to create that bigger weapons to fight bigger wars. that's what led to war. will one, that's what led to war, what to, that's what led to the nuclear weapons era and so on and so on. and we know there is on was going to dominant and time our u. s. is not only was going to dominate the indices of the future, but who is going to be the dominant geopolitical community power times. that's why

last year. and it means former ceo of google wrote a book together and kissinger, our forum was g o strategies our time. and you asked about if china wins they wore on a i, those are going to be the dominant media that insecurity power and with all wants. and i'll talk to tanya, state capitalists and aggressive china to dominate really telling the world absolutely not. so unfortunately, many innovations lead to weapons and then fight a war. it happened worldwide me that they were too in depth and wave nuclear weapons coming before the power and even a startup nation like these around where there's a lot of tech innovation. it starts in the military and then he goes to civic application. the internet was great that by dar, the boeing 747 was a military project before he was commercial. so unfortunately, the development of the cyber went out on was drones and vehicles and robert sold

theirs. and they wore in ukraine the just the beginning of how a, i think large can be used to fight the war implies that he's got even more violent and more virulent and nastier military conflicts among great powers. well, in my conversations i tend to be skeptical of optimism. and so this has been a great conversation. economist muriel rubini founder rubini, macro associates and professor at the stern school of business at new york university. thank you so much for being with us today. great pleasure. being review and we're your audience they've so what's the bottom line? it's not about being pessimistic or optimistic. of course humanity has survived all sorts of calamities since the beginning of time. and we all hope that will flourish in the future. but my guess today is right to point out that so many threats to the world as we know it are happening at the same time. crazy amounts of debt, artificial intelligence, a new cold war, a changing planet. and me 1st policies everywhere. to me,

this last one is the scariest as individuals and as nations, folks just don't want to compromise or cooperate with each other for the collective good. and it's getting worse as resources, diminishing people fight over crumbs. so when global challenges arise, big natural disaster, or a global pandemic. good luck getting countries to sit down and do what's right for all of us. and that's the bottom line. ah me, this was wrong to teach children away from their parents and hurt them into a school against their will. there was no mother, no father figures. they put us in a big playroom and we certainly looked after ourselves. i don't remember the children's names, but i'll never forget christ. can. it is dark secret. announce is era who

has been a hands on celeste's lacking in asia and africa, that the day is where i'd be choosing and editing my iron stories in a refugee camp with no electricity. and right now we're confronting some of the greatest challenges that humanities ever faced. and i really believe that the only way we can do that is with compassion and generosity and compromise. because that's the only way we can try to solve any of these problem is together. that's why they are so important. we make those connections. oh no, i'm, i am noisy in london with just a quick look at the main stories now. gay and migrants have been repatriated home from geneva say they will living in hell off to a cracked.