women make science from the lab to the field are now to sierra a journey of discovery and one albanian man's exploration of his religious heritage . how has the big touching face survived for 700 years despite of volatile history of oppression? i'll just the real world tells the story of a religion that has over 7000000 followers in the footsteps of my big touchy ancestors on al jazeera. ah, don't you all deserve me sell robin dorn, reminder of our talk, you stories a cholera break that followed earthquakes. in northwest and syria, last month is getting worse. at least 3 people have died. a journalist,

newer could wash as more from it lip. despite the continuous warnings from the civil defense teams in regard to the wide spread of color and the areas of the northwestern syria, we'll still see thousands of families lost their houses due to the devastating lakes forced to live in temporary shelter centers installed by n g a z and now the spread of colorado is making b humanitarian response. for the n g o z at the mantra, even more complicated. a millions of people in turkey are also living in makeshift camps after their homes are destroyed by the earthquakes. health workers say they need urgent support to help survivors deal with the trauma and mental illness. hush . marlborough has more from gaussian type in southern turkey. when you travel across the areas that were affected by the earthquakes, basically talking about a dear man, malati up positive. not that he got a man much had tie, you'd get a sense of the magnitude of this devastation and the number of people who are

affected. we're talking about over 2000000 people displace during the earthquakes. and this is great to get huge problem. for example, i stand now near this a makeshift camp that was established in ga seattle and you get many, many of those camps in different parts of the country. the authorities are under mounting pressure to deliver assistance to the people in those areas, particularly when it comes to the hygiene kits. medical supplies that i'm low while pharmacies deploy to those areas. the head of the nuclear watchdog says iran should be transparent about its nuclear program. raphael grossi made the common during a visitor to wrong. he is holding talks with the government. gracie's visit comes days after i. e. a. inspectors found an iranian nuclear side had enrich uranium to near weapons grade level. darren says it's nuclear program, mr. peaceful purposes and not for developing nuclear weapons. we happen to have a, they deep, serious,

systematic dialogue with iran. and this is why i am here. it's been too long. there have been a number of issues throughout the year, and i'm very glad that long. i have been able to return, i think it's going to be more than satisfactory. an important visit. the head of russia's wagner mercenary group, says ukrainian city of buck who tis almost completely surrounded by russia and is allied forces russian troops of intensify the shelling of roads to the west, making it hard of the ukrainian forces to move in and out. chief calls for the time to be evacuated, to save the lives of ukrainian soldiers. victory and behold would give most of his 1st major success in 6 months. more african nations of flying deserters is out of tune his ear after a government crackdown activists say, many black africans have been attacked since president high said,

accused them of changing the country demographics. columbia, as president says, all 18 people taken hostage by protested that an oil facility on thursday had been released. they were seized in the southern province of cat on the protest as a demanding help to repair roads and build new ones. protests have continued in grief. every train crunch on tuesday in which dozens of people were killed, protested blame the government for the poor condition of greeks. israel system, while union say a fatal accident was inevitable. the navy, in case god in the philippines are working to contain and leap from a sunken tank and it's creating a major oil spill. it's threatening protected the marine areas. the empty princess emperor sank in rough seas, a deep porter on tuesday. a state of emergency has been declared and van wall too, as another powerful cyclists boxes the country. the 2nd this week category for cycling. kevin is bringing gale force, winds and trench rein. hundreds of thousands of people across manuel whose islands

are thought to be effected. on wednesday franklin, judy cut power for many residents from their homes. you follow stories on a website found the dot com. i'll be back with more news in half, not the next on on there. it's the bottom line to stay with us. the news. ready i am steve clements, i have a question as countries pile up massive debt and the planet heats up and old style wars breakout and politics becomes more toxic at home and abroad. do we have any real chance of coming out? ok. let's get to the bottom line. ah, even before the corona virus pandemic, it was obvious that something wasn't quite right with the economy either here in the america or around the world. there used to be confidence that the next

generation would be better off than the last one. but nowadays folks aren't. so sure. are we in the middle of a perfect storm that doesn't end well with so much dead? and with a gap between rich and poor getting worse, andy, warming planet and job killing technology on the way. and a globe dividing rivalry between china and the u. s. with people scared about their jobs and their future and governments that don't want migration and don't want free trade anymore. or we already in the era of d, globalization or at least slow bill is ation as my guest today calls it. with so many interconnected future of the world questions we need to think through. we're talking today with someone who can help us understand where we're going. he is he economists, serial rubini, professor at new york university and author of mega threats 10 dangerous trends that imperil our future and how to survive them. well, you know, one of the things you write very compellingly about neural in this great book and i'll tell everybody read this book. it's just an eye opener on so many massive, significant threats,

not just financial. we're talking about right now. but climate change a i other dimensions, but you knew the late paul volcker? well, i happen to know paul volcker well, and in some senses he was the hero of a moment of coming out of an era of stagflation. and you write that we may be entering in another area when we already be in an era of stagflation. what's wrong with, or why shouldn't we hope for another paul volcker to come raise interest rates to a, to a crippling level to, to kill the fatness in the lethargy in the economy and the bad stuff? the why do you not think that there aren't heroes that come do the right things to get us out of this? you know, threat driven future. we have i think is unlikely for the following reasons. not in the 197 days we had the negative supply shocks. they all the shock of 973 with the yom kippur war between he's and i'm out of state. the 2nd all shock in 1979

falling de islamic evolution in iran, elect inflation and recession. by that time u. s. in advance economies collaborative public that there's a shortage in the was only a 100 percent. so we got inflation, we got the recession, we got speculation. but when vulgar high interest rates to 20 percent, we did not have at that price in the u. s. in europe, where one the latin america does that borrowed like crazy. in the seventy's and of course when bulkhead jacked up, interesting to 20 percent match the garza dina. but as a default, that's after the global financial crisis is where the much higher levels of that household, that housing, that bank, that but where the negative demand shock a credit crunch. so that, that, but we event deflation. and therefore, we could do massive monetary, fiscal and credit easing to save the calling me in the markets to them. fortunately,

where the worst of the 7 days were a wide range of books, shorter term, and mid term, negative aggregate supply shocks that will reduce production and growth and increased cost of production circulation. but now we have that re shows that a much higher than even after the g, f c. and because inflation is rising, we cannot into the economic downturn, interest rates, where do the opposite. the fred and the others and their bands are increasing them to fight inflation. so we have their worst of the seventy's in terms of speculation, re shocks and they're worse of the past global financial crisis in terms of unsustainable debts. but now we have raising interest rates, so central banks are them. if you do and damage, they don't. if they do increase interest rates enough to fight inflation. and the fad will have to go down to 5, but well above 6 because of how persistent inflation is we can cause both. there

are landing of the economy and the financial market crash because with interest of the 6 percent households mortgages credit card to the loans. although loans, business forms for business says corporate bonds. and of course even public that are going to become unsustainable. so we'll have an economy crash in the financial crisis, feeding on each other. and if instead the fed where to blink, we empower and say, we don't want to causes economic and financial crisis. and they do not increase interest rate enough to fight inflation. they like the 70s. we are behind the curve here in this shocks. we have a d, anchoring of inflation expectation. we create their wage price spiral, and when the match highly inflation and eventually with supply shocks, we do not avoid the recession with up again into speculation. so either way, we are in travel given the shocks and given the much higher amounts of that

compared to the 7 days. but even compared to the past that gfc periods. now you are creatively referred to sometimes as doctor doom. and you've said you don't like that term, you prefer doctor realist. and in this and i'll tell our audience now if you think that neural rubini was pessimistic with what we've just talked about, wait to hear about climate change. a i, demography ships, all these other component pieces that we're dealing with in our g o. economic and geopolitical ecosystem and the interconnectedness of them. and i'd love you to share it with our audience. it's a lot to talk about. it's a very compelling dense book. but what are these other factors that actually make it very hard for political systems to respond that you say, or, or other mega threats, that even if we get the finance side, right, we're dealing with other dimensions that could really capsize us. well,

as you pointed out in the book, in addition to economic monastery and financial risk, i talk about those that are connected to these economic and financial rates, but they're not directly. so one of them, of course, is the risk of cold war's getting cold, and how chords among great powers that are all armed with nuclear weapons. and wherever banks are going to be on his powers, china, russia, north korea, iran, the, tara lake coolies, of course, with us, europe, and the west. we could have a non conventional conflict among great powers. ah, war, ha, tory ukraine is already getting worse. is one might strike iran these here, given the rod is becoming a trash look for state. and the cold war between us and china is getting colder by the day. and is only matter of time going to be a come from pace on the issue of taiwan. that's one set of race. second, right,

of course, global climate change is becoming a disaster. we've acceleration in the rise in temperature, and economic and financial damage from climate change across the world. those of examples of what's happening today. it's a disaster. we have realized now that severe global bond that makes matter occur. cory, the intent for many reason is not going to be the last nor the most virulent. and while a i can increase, they can amik by eventually it leads to permanent. they can, nevada got unemployment, among routine jobs that are blue color initially. but then white collar jobs that a cognitive, that can be slice, and a series of our commit that task, and even some of the creative jobs given then you'll generative ai techniques will be eventually outcome. and it will also increase the income and worked in a quality because this the clouds are captive intensive scale by us and labor

saving. so if you own that copy, tell you the while. if you are the top 10 percent distribution of scale, it makes it more productive. but everybody as garage is going to have a challenge that in common jobs. and finally they can make money for space. one of these, arising in the quality economic malaise, young generation feed of the war, solve than their parents as a backlash against liberal democracy and radical outdoors, tardy and violent parties. populous parties of the extreme right or the extreme left are coming to power, both enough monster. com and then an emerging markets. now, i said that things are worse than the seventy's, and worse than that, ask jeff c period. when some dimensions, things are even worse than 903rd of these. in those 30 years with the 1914 and 945, in spite of the 1st. so globalization is 5 of the 1st in that's

a revolution. we did not prevent one. then where the spanish flu, then we have the stock market crash of 29. then the beginning of the great depression, then inflation, deflation, hyperinflation, tre, doors, currency wars, financial crisis, massive defaults, unemployment, 25 percent. and then where the rise to power of knobs is in germany. fashion in italy, frank going to spain and me, the thirty's in japan. then wed war war 2 and where the holocaust but as bad as those 30 years where there today for a major new mega threats that did not even exist at that time. at that time we didn't have to worry about climate change in the thirty's. we didn't have to worry about a i this throwing job. so the computer had not even been invented. you know, at that time within an unfunded liability coming from aging. you know, we just create the social security and the average worker would die. the age of 60,

before he or she could get the 1st paycheck at 62, and as ugly as the war, little one in world war 2, where you are mostly conventional wars, was only again a word or 2 when lucky. it was the u. s. rather than that, the, or the japanese will be of the bomb. and unfortunately, where to use it in the regime. and i guess i could 20 or will to. but if to they, there will be a conflict among major power. this are all armed with nuclear weapons that and that conventional war with easily and very fast escalate into unconventional. and you could have a nuclear winter that good to wipe out a good chunk of humanity. so by some standards, the current a geopolitical depression is more dangerous, in at least for a key dimensions than even the ugliest time we had with in 1914,

in 1945. so what you're talking about is a trap that were in that even proactive positive steps can open the way for other problems. and i'd love you to share with my am i reading that right? and, and how hard is it to escape? and that trap to deal with that. so that this bleak future and we have any chance of escaping this bleak future that you write about you're right. but i point out in a chapter that it may be solutions to each one of these threads. but that as a column is no, there is no free lunch. most of the solution imply cos and sacrifices in the short run for the common good domestic and global over them the of long term and unfortunate that only jelly calling me of both democracy. and i'll talk or see is kicking the count down the road. because politicians will do the sacrifices in the

short run are not going to be in power, will be kicked out of power over time. and therefore we tend to not doing what's necessary. that's one of a big dilemma where facing so there are problems that are solution. the question is where that they're likely to be implement that or not. and i gave several examples, sound climate change. i why don't we do the right thing? that is least 5 constraints. one is that the in place like you asked, half of the can, 3 doesn't believe in human driven climate change. so when that empower the reverse mark, we need to do sagel and there is any interest. there is some conflict. i'm 65, i'll be lucky to leave another 30 years. a young person born today, he or she will leave us with on the years. the young, the vote, the old vote, and even the young are the willing to do the sacrifice as to reduce their carbon footprint. today, we should all become vega. we should all install solar panel,

insulate our homes that don't use plastic, even the younger. i'm not willing to do it international and you have a free rider problem. if it comes, you are to do all the ask for then cost to cut the mission to 0 and nobody asked, does it the don't get any benefits they missions are global and they pay the cost and call the main thing i green 200 candidate who right thing is mission impossible . then there's a conflict when the important that is why the timing, china and india cut your emission to 0 in the next 20 years. the way want to do in europe and us. they say you credit is problem for the last 200 years. 90 percent of the cumulative is stored in stock of emission comes from our in that sort of evolutions. and we create this problem in our family border countries remain poor. don't go to catch every mission 0 in the next 20 years. they say no way, we're not going to do it. we're going to raise them until we come either class or

reach. and then we're going to deal with this problem unless you bribe asked me to give us a tree number of transfer subsidies a year. u. s. congress is a part for being done, spare to change. no money in that account is going to do that for, for be done. you need to train them in. finally, it will, the global rival us in china don't agree on how to deal with them. and was that talk for each the only agree on how to deal with economic and financial stability. they don't agree on free trade. that on agree of course on global security, very hard to agree on climate change. that's why there is so much greenwashing greenwashing, green fig leaves. most of the investments are just the fig leaves that natalie is the some all in favor with dealing with environment of disaster because we're down, we're going to destroy the planet, but at least 5. and i give another 5 or 10 how to say obstacles and constrain on

doing what's desirable. so the reality is that what is likely to happen, unfortunately, is going to be very different from what's gonna necessary to happen. that's why corporate glasgow called add that trauma shake we're told on cope out. we're on the way not to 1.5, not to to one all the way to 2.5, possibly 3 degrees above a plain. that's their level, even to as a disaster. 2 and a half, it's got a strong think through the end of our planet. that's what we're facing right now. you know, one of the challenges you write out about is, is the u. s. dollar losing its role as the reserve currency of the world. and you said that really is, you know, correlated with nations that are powerful. you will kind of look at china rising larry summers. the former treasury secretary once said, don't worry about this. europe museum. japan's and nursing home and china is a jail as a way to say we're going to be fine. whereas larry summers wrong is wrong because

the world is going to be divided into major sphere of influence. one around us, europe, the west and our friends and allies, and one around china, russia, north korea, iran pakistan, and many companies that are doing much more business and trade with china than they do with the west. and i said the chinese model of state job has been of surveillance. so when i have a decoupling of the global economy to separate the economic trading, financial investment takes the logical and also social police to go see stems one or on the west, one around china. and therefore, the chinese are going to increasingly want to replace the u. s. dollar when they do trade with their friends and allies. ah, and use that in b and already gradually doing it because you know, as the saying goes, if i. busy owe you a b loan is my problem. if our,

your trillion is your problem. and chinese are holding $13.00, and on dollar rav 4 and reserves in us dollar treasury's, but lacking type, been for russia, where we see that those, that foreign assets of russia, where they are in dollar and europe and so on. the chinese are awarded that as well in a collision course with them on taiwan. eventually we're going to do the same. so they're going in finding their friends and allies lead in voice oil in the middle east in our in b. let me pay you in our m b. why don't you hold some of your reserves into i b and so on and so on. and then making inroads, steady, lance, loading gradually. so the ball is not going to disappear, is gonna remain at reserve currency bad from 8 unit paula world, where is dollar dominance? 2 thirds of all transaction and over reserve currency is dollar. when i go with bipolar was one center, they around the us $1.01 cent around. they are in

b that the cobbling fragmentation and bulk i'm ization of the global economy becomes also at the coupling and fragmentation off the global reserves and currency sees them. i want to quickly show our audience a photograph of a house you write about ah, that was built through a i and 3 d printing. ah, and 2 people to human beings built this home in remarkable time with machines. and, and i just want to give you an opportunity neural to talk about the benefits that are going to come with technology and advancement and what we should be scared is, heck, about certainly a i machine learning robot thing out on a shawn quantum and relate, that technology eventually is going to increase the columbia pi potential growth is going to become much higher. we're not yet seeing it in the aggregate micro productivity numbers is only matter of time. that's the positive side of it. so

there will be more goods and services much cheaper. the dark side is most people treat them and some of the one increasingly massive permanent, technological unemployment. initially, blue color routine jobs. then why color cogney and give jobs eventually given that general t v i even creative jobs. secondly, this technology is out of carbon intensive, skilled by the labor saving. if you're in the machine or the capitals on the machine, you'll do well. if you are in the top, maybe 15 percent of this revision of scales, education, human copy doubt probably day, i make sure for the time being more productive. but if you're a low value out there or medium by rod, that blue color white color, increasingly your job in income is going to be tracked than by technology. that's

why eventually we need you be i universe of basic income. but then what's a system where people dont have a big deal of work that essentially effectively like part of science or steve and welfare check for light? is it sustainable or what are the consequences socially and politically best? it's at the stop. yeah, i'm huge. are wanting, which essence i mean 95 percent of people live on u b. i is not a utopian future in my view. final thing, more psychological innovation. then i usually buy some governments want to create that bigger weapons to fight bigger wars. that's what led to worldwide, that's what led to war. what to, that's what led to the nuclear weapons era and so on and so on. and we know there is on was going to dominant and time our u. s. is not only was going to dominate the indices of the future, but it was going to be the dominant geopolitical immediate power times. that's why

last year and it means former ceo of google wrote the book together and kissinger, our horror, most g o strategies are time. and you asked about if china winds they war on a i. they're also going to be the dominant media that insecurity power and with all ones. and i'll talk to tanya state capitalists and aggressive china to dominate really telling the world absolutely not. so unfortunately, many innovations lead to weapons and then fight big international war. it happened worldwide me that that will tool in depth and wave nuclear weapons coming before little our power and even a startup nation like the israel, where there's a lot of thank innovation. it starts in the military and then he goes to civil application. the internet was great that by dar, the boeing 747 was the me by project before he was commercial. so unfortunately, the developing of the cyber web on our toner was drones and vehicles,

and robert sold theirs and they wore in ukraine. they're just the beginning of how a, i think large can be used to fight. the war implies that he's got even more violent and more virulent and nastier military conflicts among great powers. well, in my conversations i tend to be skeptical of optimism. and so this has been a great conversation. economist muriel rubini founder rubini, macro associates and professor at the stern school of business at new york university. thank you so much for being with us today. great pleasure being review and were your audience they've. so what's the bottom line? it's not about being pessimistic or optimistic. of course humanity has survived all sorts of calamities since the beginning of time. and we all hope that will flourish in the future. but my guess today is right to point out that so many threats to the world as we know it are happening at the same time. crazy amounts of debt, artificial intelligence, a new cold war, a changing planet. and me 1st policies everywhere. to me,

this last one is the scariest as individuals and as nations, folks just don't want to compromise or cooperate with each other for the collective good. and it's getting worse as resources diminish and people fight over crumbs. so when global challenges arrives, make natural disaster or a global pandemic? good luck getting countries to sit down and do what's right for all of us. and that's the bottom line, ah ah, i

believe women run micro businesses are key to center goals development and to improved food security. access to finance helps them succeed. since 2014, nearly a 180 micro enterprises, collectives and small businesses across synagogue received concession refinancing. these loans were made possible by an initiative administered by the q 8 good. will fund the q 8 fund partners in development. oh, you won't. george, is there any cell robin in doha, reminder of our top new stories? a cholera break, the followed earthquakes in northwestern serial. last month is getting worse. at least 3 people have died.