needs and current to fast a counters. aaron, a journey of discovery, and one obedient mind, exploration of his religious heritage. how has the big, dashing fate survived for 700 years? despite of all the time history of oppression? al jazeera world tells the story of a religion that has over 7000000 followers. in the footsteps of my big touchy ancestors on algebra, ah, found carry johnson window are the top stories on al jazeera, the head of the united nations nuclear watchdog has announced more inspections or iran's photo nuclear plant. an installation of new monitoring equipment at the

facility. president abraham bracy met or fail grosse in tehran on saturday. there was a detection of a certain level and then we asked for clarification. but what we have seen in our continues our continued observation of the facility is that there has not been production or accumulation of uranium at that level, which is a very high level of course, sixty's already very high. but as i said, we come and we ways and means to inspected protests had been held in tehran afternoon waiver, suspected gas poisonings, but hundreds more school girls in hospital arrangement meetings, reporting gas attacks and schools across 15 different provinces. none of the victims are set to be in a serious condition, are present abraham racy as ordered a top level investigation. process bar has more according to semi official news

agencies, the attacks have taken place in at least 12 provinces, across iran, on saturday, alone. at that means hundreds of girls have been taken to hospital as a result of these attacks. and the one of the main ones that we've heard of is in pock dash, which is in southern terran where 3 schools were simultaneously attack. and that it saw at least 250 girls being taken to hospital or earlier on saturday. there is a lot of a confusion and a lot of anger at the moment across iran about what is taking place is really protest. her have broken through police lines during an anti government demonstration in tel aviv rallies have taken place across the country for 9 consecutive weeks despite the security minister, ordering a tougher crackdown on protested israelis had been marching against the government's proposed judicial reforms to reduce the powers of the supreme court and against a wave of is really raised in occupied territories. to museum president has

suspended a judge because he did not imprison a suspect. it is in the judge's association has warned of unprecedented pressures on the judiciary. earlier, thousands of supporters often uses labor union protested against president crusade, or accusing him of cracking down on the government critics. at least 12 people have died after a powerful storm system hit several southern u. s. states before moving ne store brought the gov. 4 sized hail, torrential, rain, and tornadoes, leaving more than 1000000 people without power. the same storm system dumped heavy snow across parts of california. even some people trapped in their homes. california is the governor declared a state of emergency in 13 counties. homer, us present donald trump has addressed attendees that conservative a political action conference in oxen, hill. the gathering includes many top ranking members of the republican party. trump is running again for the election in 2024. we will beat the democrats. we

will route the fake news media we will expose and appropriately deal with the rhinos. we will evict joe biden from the white color break in northwest syria is worsening from last month's earthquakes. these 3 people have died from the disease in the rebel controlled northwest. the quakes damaged health facilities, water sources and sanitation infrastructure, increasing the possibility of an accelerated outbreak. french president myoma crohn says all sides involved in the conflict and eastern that democratic republic of congo have agreed to support a ceasefire. france has pledged $36000000.00 to a humanitarian fund set up by the european union to help the rich and ukrainian officials in bark. moot, say. there's intense street fighting in the besieged eastern city. a russia has not taken control us after russia's wagner mercenary group said he had surrounded the

city. remaining civilians are living in shelters without access to gas, electricity, or water. those are your headlines morning hair on al jazeera us after the bottom line. ah. ready i am steve clements, i have a question as country's pile up massive debt and the planet heats up an old style wars breakout and politics becomes more toxic at home and abroad. do we have any real chance of coming out? ok. let's get to the bottom line. ah, even before the corona virus pandemic, it was obvious that something wasn't quite right with the economy either here in the america or around the world. there used to be confidence that the next

generation would be better off than the last one. but nowadays folks aren't so sure . are we in the middle of a perfect storm that doesn't end well with so much debt? and with a gap between rich and poor getting worse, andy, warming planet and job killing technology on the way. and a globe dividing rivalry between china and the u. s. with people scared about their jobs and their future and governments that don't want migration and don't want free trade anymore. or we already in the era of the globalization, or at least slow bill is ation as my guess today, cause it was so many interconnected future of the world questions we need to think through. we're talking today with someone who can help us understand where we are going. he is the economist, serial rubini, professor at new york university and author of mega threats 10 dangerous trends that imperil our future and how to survive them. well, you know, one of the things you write very compellingly about neural in this great book and i'll tell everybody read this book. it's just an eye opener on so many massive,

significant threats, not just financial. we're talking about right now. but climate change a i other dimensions, but you knew the late paul volcker? well, i happen to know paul volcker well, and in some senses he was the hero of a moment of coming out of an era of stagflation and you write that we may be entering an another area when we already be in an era of stagnation. what's wrong with, or why shouldn't we hope for another paul volcker to come raise interest rates to a, to a crippling level to, to kill the fatness in the lethargy in the economy and the bad stuff? the why do you not think that there aren't heroes that come do the right things to get us out of this? you know, threatened driven future. we have i think is unlikely for the following reasons, not in the 907 days. we had the negative supply shocks. they all the shock of 1973 with the yom kippur war between these and i'm out of state. the 2nd all shocked in

1979 falling there islamic revolution in iran elect to inflation and recession. by that time u. s. in advance, economy is glad with in public that there's a shortage in the was only a 100 percent. so we got inflation, we got the recession, we got speculation. but when volker high interest rates to 20 percent, we did not have at that price in the u. s in europe where the one in latin america does that borrowed like crazy in the seventy's. and of course, when bulkhead jacked up, interesting to 20 percent mexico argentina as a default, that's after the global financial crisis where that much higher levels of that household, that housing, that bank, that but where the negative demand shock a credit crunch. so that, that where we have a deflation and therefore we could do massive monetary, fiscal and credit easing to save the calling me of the markets to them. fortunately,

where the worst of the 7 days were wide range are booked, shorter term and mid term negative are going to get supply shots that will reduce production and growth and increased cost of production. speculation, right? but now we have that ratios that are much higher than even after the g, f c. and because inflation is rising, we cannot into these economic downturn, interest rates where do the opposite. the fred and the others and their bands are increasing them to fight inflation. so we have their worst of the seventy's in terms of speculation, re shocks and they're worse of the past global financial crisis in terms of unsustainable debts. but now we have raising interest rates. so central banks are them. if you do and damage, they don't. if they do increase interest rates enough to fight inflation and the fed will have to go not to 5 but well above 6 because of how persistent inflation

is. we can cause both. there are landing of the economy and the financial market crash because with interest at that 6 percent households mortgages credit cards to the loans, auto loans, business forms for business says corporate bonds. and of course, even public that are going to become unsustainable. so we'll have an economy crash in the financial crisis, feeding on a child. and if instead the fed where to blink, we empower and say, we don't want to causes economic and financial rash. and they do not increase interest rate enough to fight inflation. they like the seventy's, we are behind that curve, given this shocks, we have a d, anchoring of inflation expectation. we create their wage price spiral and when the match highly inflation and eventually with supply shocks, we do not avoid that a sanction went up again into speculation. so either way,

we are in travel given the shocks and given the match high amounts of that compared to the 7 days. but even compared to the past that gfc periods. now you are creatively referred to sometimes as doctor doom. and you've said you don't like that term, you prefer a doctor realist. and in this and i'll tell our audience now if you think that neural rubini was pessimistic with what we've just talked about way too. you hear about climate change a i, demography ships, all these other component pieces that we're dealing with in our g o. economic and geopolitical ecosystem and the interconnectedness of them. and i love you to share it with our audience. it's a lot to talk about. it's a very compelling dense book, but what are these other factors that actually make it very hard for political systems to respond that you say, or, or other mega threats that even if we get the finance side, right,

we're dealing with other dimensions that could really capsize us well, as you pointed out in the book, in addition to economic monastery and financial risk, i talk about are there that are connected to these economy. again, financial rates, but they're not directly. so one of them, of course, is the risk of a cold war is getting cold then all course, among the great powers that are all armed with nuclear weapons. and we have a bunch of reviews on his powers, china, russia, north korea, iran. the tara collies, of course, with us, europe, and the west. we could have a non conventional conflict among great powers. ah war, heartwarming ukraine is already getting worse. is around might strike, iran is here. given the rod is becoming trash. look, our state and the cold war between us and china is getting cold there by the day. and is only matter of time will be

a come from based on the issue of taiwan. that's one sense of race. second, right, of course, global climate change is becoming a disaster with acceleration in their rise in temperature and the economy and financial damage from climate change across the world. those of examples of what's happening today. it's a disaster. we realize now that severe a global and then makes made or occur. cor, 19 for many reason is not going to be the last nor the most virulent. and while a i can increase, they can amik by eventually it leads to carmen and they can logic out unemployment among routine jobs that are blue color initially. but then white collar jobs that a cognitive, that can be slice, and a series of our commit that task, and even some of the creative jobs given then you'll generative ai techniques will be eventually outcome and it, it will also increase increment while the quality because this the clouds are

capital intensive scale by, as in labor saving. so if you on that copy, tell you the, well, if you are the top 10 percent distribution of scale, it makes it more productive. but everybody as garage is going to challenge that in common jobs. and finally, they can always manifest based on of these rising in the quality economic malaise, young generation female be worse off than their parents as a backlash against liberal democracy and radical outdoor retired in violent parties. populous parties of the extreme right or the extreme left are coming to power, both in advanced economies and an emerging markets. now, i said that things are worse than this seventy's. and worse than that aust, gypsy period. when somebody mentions things out, even worse than 903rd of these in those 30 years, with the 19141945,

in spite of the 1st. so our globalization is 5 of the 1st in that's a revolution. we did not prevent one, then where the spanish flu then where the stock market crash of 29. then the beginning of the great depression, then inflation, deflation, hyperinflation, tre, doors, currency wars, financial rises, massive defaults, unemployment, 25 percent. and then where the rise to power of knobs is in germany. fashion in italy, franklin, spain, and me, the thirty's in japan. then wed war were to and where the holocaust but as bad as those 30 years where there today for a major new mega threats that did not even exist at that time. at that time we didn't have to worry about climate change in that or these, we don't have to worry about a i this drawing job. so the computer had not even been invented. you know, at that time within an unfunded liability coming from aging. you know,

we're just create the social security and the average worker would die the age of 60, before he or she could get the 1st paycheck at 62, and as ugly as the war, little one in world war 2, where you are mostly conventional wars, was only again, a word or 2 when lucky it was the u. s. rather than that, the, or the japanese will be of the bomb. and unfortunately, where to use it in the regime. and i guess i could when or will to. but if to they, there will be a conflict among major powers that are all armed with nuclear weapons that and that conventional war with easily and very fast scully into unconventional. and you could have a nuclear winter that good to wipe out a good chunk of humanity. so by some standards, the current a geopolitical depression is more dangerous in at least for t dimensions than even the ugliest time we had with in 1914,

in 1945. so what you're talking about is a trap that were in that even proactive positive steps can open the way for other problems. and i'd love you to share with my am i reading that right? and, and how hard is it to escape? and that trap to deal with that. so that is bleak future and we have any chance of escaping this bleak future that you write about you're right, but i point out in a chapter that it may be solutions to each one of these threads. but that as a column is no, there is no free lunch. most of the solution imply cos and sacrifice says in the short run for the common good domestic and global over them in the long term. and unfortunately, collegial economy of both democracy and i'll talk or see is kicking the can down

the road because politicians would do the sacrifices in the short run are not going to be in power or be kicked out of power over time. and therefore, we tend to not doing what's necessary. that's one of a big dilemma we're facing. so there are problems that are solution. the question is where that they're likely to be implement that or not. and i gave several examples on climate change. i, why don't we do the right thing? that is mis 5 constraints. one is that in place like you asked, half of the can, 3 doesn't believe in human driven climate change. so when that empower the reverse, what we need to do sagel, and there is any interest, there is some conflict. i'm 65, i'll be lucky if i leave another 30 years. a young person born today here, or she will leave us with on the years. the young, the vote, the old vote, and even the young guy, the willing to do the sacrifice as to reduce their carbon footprint. today,

we should all become vega. we should all install solar panel, insulate our homes that don't use plastic, even the younger i'm not willing to do it international and you have a free ride. the problem, if it comes, you are to do all the effort and cost to cut the mission to 0 and nobody else does it. they don't get any benefits. they missions are global, and they pay the cost. and course the main thing i green 200 candidate who right thing is mission impossible. then there's a conflict with important that is why the timing china and india cut your emission to 0 in the next 20 years. the way want to do in europe and us, they say you credit is problem for the last 200 years. 90 percent of the cumulative is stored in stock of emission comes from our industrial revolution. and we trade that is probably in our family. border countries remain poor. don't go to catch every mission to 0 in the next 20 years. they say no way, we're not going to do it. we're going to raise them until we've called me that

class or reach. and then we're going to deal with this problem unless you bribe asked me to give us a 3 number of transfer subsidies a year. u. s. congress is a part for being done, spare to change. no money in that account is going to do that for, for be done. you need to train them. and finally, it will the global drive, only us and china don't agree on how to deal with. and that makes and was that talk for a development agree on how to deal with economic and financial stability that on agree on free trade, that on agree of course on global security. very hard to agree on climate change. that's why there is so much greenwashing greenwashing, green fig leaves. most of the investments are just the fig leaf than not really is the. so i'm all in favor with dealing with environment of disaster because we're down, we're going to destroy the planet. but at least 5 and i give another 5 or 10 how to

say obstacles and constrain on doing what's desirable. so the reality is that what is likely to happen, unfortunately, is going to be very different from what's gonna necessary to happen. that's why corporate glasgow called at that trauma shake we're told on cope out what on the way, not to 1.5, not to to one on the way to 2.5. possibly 3 degrees above a plain. that's their level, even to as a disaster. 2 and a half is kind of a think through the end of our planet. that's what we're facing right now. you know, one of the challenges you write out about is, is the u. s. dollar losing its role as the reserve currency of the world. and you said that really is, you know, correlated with nations that are powerful you will kind of look at china rising larry summers. the former treasury secretary once said, don't worry about this. europe, some museum. japan's and nursing home and china is a jail as a way to say we're going to be fine. whereas larry summers wrong is wrong because

there was, there's going to be divided into major cyril beam rents. one around us, europe, the west and our friends and allies, and one around china, russia, north korea, iran, pakistan, and many companies that are doing much more business and trade with china than they do with the west. and i set the chinese model of state job surveys, men of surveillance. so when i have a decoupling of the global economy to separate economic trading, financial investment, technological and also social police to go see stems. one are on the west, one around china. and therefore, the chinese are going to increasingly one to replace the u. s. dollar when they do trade with their friends and allies. ah, and use that in b and the already garage only doing it because you know, as the saying goes,

if i or u a b is my problem. if i will, your training is your problem. and chinese are holding $13.00 them dollar foreign reserves. the us dollar treasury's, but lacking type in florida, russia, where we see that those, that foreign assets of russia, where they're in dollar and europe and so on. the chinese are awarded that that's where our collision course with them on taiwan. eventually we're going to do the same. so they're going in finding their friends and allies, lead in voice oil in the middle east in our m b. let me pay you in our m b. why don't you hold some of your reserves into i b and so on and so on. and then making inroads, steady, lance loading gradually. so the doll is not going to be is a p, it is gonna remain a reserve currency. but from a uni paula world, where does dollar dominance? 2 thirds of all transaction and over reserve currency is dollar. when i go with bipolar was one center, they around the us $1.01 cent and iran,

they are in be that the cobbling fragmentation and ball compensation of the global economy becomes also at the cobbling and fragmentation of the global reserves and currency system. i want to quickly show our audience a photograph of a house you write about ah, that was built through a i and 3 d printing. ah, and 2 people to human beings built this home in remarkable time with machines. and, and i just want to give you an opportunity neural to talk about the benefits that are going to come with technology and advancement and what we should be scared is, heck, about certainly a i machine learning or about things. auto may sharon, quantum and related technology eventually is going to increase the columbia pi potential growth is going to become much higher. we're not yet seeing it in the aggregate micro productivity numbers. there's only matter of time,

that's the positive side of it. so they'll be more goods and services much cheaper . the dark side is multiple 3 that match some of the one increasingly massive, permanent, technological unemployment. initially, blue color routine jobs, then white color cognitive jobs, eventually given that general t, v i even creative jobs. secondly, this technology is out of carbon intensive scaled bias, the labor saving. if you're in the machine or the capitals on the machine, you'll do well. if you are in the top, maybe 15 percent of this revision of scales, education, human copy doubt, probably they, i make sure for the time being more productive. but if you're a low value out there or medium by rod, that blue color white color, increasingly your job in income is going to be tracked them by technology. that's

why eventually we need you be i universe of basic income. but then what's a system where people dont have a big deal of work that essentially effectively like parasites or steve and welfare check for light? is it sustainable or what are the consequences socially and politically bass? it's at the stop the i'm future wanting which s and so he 95 percent of people leave on u b. i is not a utopian future in my view. final thing, more psychological innovation than i usually buy. some governments want to create that bigger weapons to fight bigger wars. that's what led to war will one, that's what led to war. what to, that's what led to the nuclear weapons era and so on and so on. and we know there is on was going to dominant and time our u. s. is not only was going to dominate the indices of the future, but who is going to be the dominant geopolitical community power our times?

that's why last year and actually former ceo of google wrote a book together and kissinger, our forum was g o strategies our time. and you asked about if china wins they wore on a i. those are going to be the dominant media that is security power. and with all wants, and i'll talk to tanya, state capitalists and aggressive china to dominate really telling the world absolutely not. so unfortunately, many innovations lead to weapons and then fight a war. it happened worldwide me that there were 2 in depth and with nuclear weapons coming before to our power and even a startup nation like these around where there's a lot of tech innovation. it starts in the military and then he goes to submit the application. the internet was great that by dar about the boeing 747 was a military project before he was commercial. so unfortunately, the development of the cyber went out on was drones and vehicles and robert sold

theirs. and they wore in ukraine the just the beginning of how a, i think large can be used to fight the war implies that he's got even more violent and more virulent and nasty or military conflicts among great powers. well, in my conversations i tend to be skeptical of optimism. and so this has been a great conversation. economist muriel rubini founder rubini, macro associates and professor at the stern school of business at new york university. thank you so much for being with us today. great pleasure. being review and we're your audience they've so what's the bottom line? it's not about being pessimistic or optimistic. of course humanity has survived all sorts of calamities since the beginning of time. and we all hope that will flourish in the future. but my guess today is right to point out that so many threats to the world as we know it are happening at the same time. crazy amounts of debt, artificial intelligence, a new cold war,

a changing planet. and me 1st policies everywhere. to me, this last one is the scariest as individuals and as nations, folks just don't want to compromise or cooperate with each other for the collective good. and it's getting worse as resources diminished, and people fight over crumbs. so when global challenges arise, big natural disaster, or a global pandemic. good luck getting countries to sit down and do what's right for all of us. and that's the bottom line, ah. every 3 days, the woman is kim's, in the murder of women, and unprecedented levels of domestic violence, have shocked easily to the call. the violence is more violent, violent men are younger. why does it keep happening? and what can be done to stop it? this is not their price. i want my daughter and all the daughters prepaid. that's not the country i want to witness. famous city for me is very simply the question

of power on al jazeera. when the news breaks, families still have full and they say they want to leave without getting their relic was out of the problem. when people need to be heard. and the story told my dad and water every way we are left without anything to keep us warm. with exclusive interviews and in depth reports on the shelves and draws here a precious style, a faint specimen al jazeera, has teens on the ground to per you. more award winning documentaries and light knees. lou, i'm carry johnson and our main store is now the head of the united nations nuclear watchdog has announced more inspections or to rounds for the nuclear plant and installation of new monitor.