hello, the stories that we cover heidi complex, so it's very important that we make them as understandable as we can do as many people as possible know about how much they know about a given chrisy saw issue with the smell of that is overpowering as al jazeera correspondence, that's what we strive to do with this was wrong to teach children away from their parents and hurt them into a school against her will. there was no mother, no father figures. they put us in the big playroom and we certainly look after ourselves. i don't remember the children's names. i'll never forget. canada's dark secret on out his era. ah.

i moline site into ohio, eat up stories on out to sarah. monday marks one month since 2 powerful earthquakes had turkey and syria over 50000 people have been killed. hundreds of thousands of buildings collapsed in turkey and millions of people are homeless. south korean government says it plans to compensate victims of to pounds, war time, force labor through its own public foundation. the dispute has strained relations between the u. s. allies, soule press, foreign minister says leaders of the 2 countries are willing to improve bilateral ties in is kim has moved from sol. notably the scheme will exclude the presence of japanese entities as it will be filled the fund by south korean companies, which had benefited from a $945.00 normalization treaty which tokyo has maintained all along, addressed all war time,

reparation issues. there are still several questions that remain on the details of the scheme itself. but the foreign minister here in south korea, in announcing the plan pug in said, is a product of several rounds of high level talks between the 2 sides and in the interest of forward looking future oriented relations with japan. major fire has engulfed over hang a refugee camp in bangladesh on sunday and broke out in the blue collar camp and coaxes bazaar in the se if the country an estimate to $12000.00 people have been left without shelter. tens of thousands of people have been evacuated in malaysia off to floods caused by heavy rain swept across several states. all them 40000 people have taken shelter in relief. count set up by the government for people have died. ron's education minister has apologized following a wave of suspect to poisonings and schools targeting female students use if norie

says the government is investigating a 2nd wave of gas attacks and schools resulted in will the 300 girls being put in the hospital on saturday? thousands of opposition supporters have defied a protest van into nicea off to some of their lead us were arrested. thomas traces in the capital tennis on demanding president case said step down. why not mackie, i honest you, our current situation is bad. why does the president say that everything is available, but in reality, there's nothing. i'm telling you there is nothing available in the markets, not just sugar or cooking oil, but every thing we live in fear. when chi saeed gives a speech, i'm afraid, do you know why he does not reassure us? and his speech is a frightening and he divides us. a lot of other emotion we haven't experienced this kind of situation before. as i lived through the period of bulky but and been a lean doctor, the situation is unprecedented in terms of freedoms. u. s. president joe biden is forcing to strengthen voting rights. he visited selma,

alabama to monk the 50th anniversary. if an attack by state troopers on civil rights protesters, his trip aim to underscore his commitment to black vases, his efforts to pass voting right legislation have stole though in the republican controlled congress. i come here, come, aberration. not for show. show me a is a reckoning the right to vote. right to vote to have your vote counted as the threshold of democracy, liberty. was that anything's possible without it, without that right? no. vin is possible. and this fundamental right remains under assault. conservative supreme court as good of the voting rights act over the years since 2020 a lecture, a wave of states, a dozen dozens of and i voted laws fuel by the big law. and their electric

deniers now elected to offers the reform party of a stony as prime minister kaya colors has secured fast place in the parliamentary elections with 32 percent of the votes. callous is a strong support. so if ukraine has worn that stony and needs to bolster its own security against russia a far right opposition, the conservative peoples party called 16 percent. it wants to limit as stony as role in the conflict. ok, those he had lines bottom line coming up next. ok, i am steve clement. i have a question as countries pile up massive debt and the planet heats up an old style wars breakout and politics becomes more toxic at home and abroad. do we have any real chance of coming out?

ok. let's get to the bottom line. ah, even before the corona virus pandemic, it was obvious that something wasn't quite right with the economy either here in the america or around the world. there used to be confidence that the next generation would be better off in the last one. but nowadays folks aren't so sure. are we in the middle of a perfect storm that doesn't end well with so much dead? and with a gap between rich and poor getting worse, andy, warming planet and job killing technology on the way, and a globe dividing rivalry between china and the u. s. with people scared about their jobs and their future and governments that don't want migration and don't want free trade anymore. or we already in the era of the globalization, or at least slow bill is ation as my guess today, cause it was so many interconnected future of the world questions we need to think through. we're talking today with someone who can help us understand where we are going. he is the economists, new rubini, professor at new york university and author of mega threats,

10 dangerous trends that imperil our future and how to survive them. well, you know, one of the things you write very compellingly about neural in this great book and i'll tell everybody read this book. it's just an eye opener on so many massive, significant threats, not just financial. we're talking about right now. but climate change a i other dimensions, but you knew the late paul volcker? well, i happen to know paul volcker well, and in some senses he was the hero of a moment of coming out of an era of stagflation. and you write that we may be entering in another area when we already be in an era of stagflation. what's wrong with, or why shouldn't we hope for another paul volcker to come raise interest rates to a, to a crippling level to, to kill the fatness in the lethargy in the economy and the bad stuff? the why do you not think that there aren't heroes that come do the right things to get us out of this? you know, threatened driven future. we have i think is unlikely for the following reason. not

in the 1970s. we had the negative supply shocks. they all the shock of 973 with the yom kippur war between is that i'm out of state. the 2nd all shock in 1979 falling day islamic evolution in iran, electro inflation and recession. by that time u. s. in advance economy is private and public that there's a shortage in the was only a 100 percent. so we got inflation, we got the recession, we got speculation. but when vulgar high interest rates to 20 percent, we did not have at that price in the u. s. in europe, where the one the latin america does that borrowed like crazy. in the seventy's, and of course when bulkhead jacked up in the states to 20 percent, mexico and the number as the default, that's after the global financial crisis is where the much higher levels of that household, that housing that bank that. but where the negative demand shock

a credit crunch, so that that, but we have a deflation. and therefore we could do massive monetary, fiscal and credit easing to save the calling me the markets to them. fortunately, where the worst of the 7 days were wide range are booked short term and mid term negative aggregate supply shocks. there will reduce production and growth and increased cost of production. speculation, right? but now we have that ratios that are much higher than even after the g, f c. and because inflation is rising, we cannot into these economic downturn, interest rates worth to the opposite. the fred and the others and their bands are increasing them to fight inflation. so we have their worst of the seventy's in terms of speculation, re shocks. and their worth of they passed global financial crisis in terms of unsustainable debts. but now we have raising interest rates. so central banks are

them. if you do and them, if they don't, if they do increase interest rates enough to fight the inflation. and the fad will have to go down to 5 but well above 6 because of how persistent inflation is. we can cause both. there are landing of the economy and the financial market crash because with interest at the 6 percent households mortgages credit card to the loans, auto loans, business forms for business says corporate bonds. and of course, even public that are going to become unsustainable. so we'll have an economy crash in the financial crisis, feeding on a child. and if instead the fed where to blink, we empower and say, we don't want to cause this economic and financial crash. and they do not increase interest rate enough to fight inflation. they like the 70s. we are behind that curve, given this shocks, we have a d,

anchoring of inflation expectation. we create their wage price spiral, and when the match highly inflation and eventually with supply shocks, we do not avoid that. essentially, we end up again into speculation. so either way, we are in travel given the shocks and given the match high amounts of that compared to the 7 days. but even compared to the past that gfc periods. now you are creatively referred to sometimes as doctor doom and you've said you don't like that term. you prefer a doctor realist and in this and i'll tell our audience now if you think that neural rubini was pessimistic with what we've just talked about way too. you hear about climate change a i, demography ships, all these other component pieces that we're dealing with in our g o. economic and geopolitical ecosystem and the interconnectedness of them. and i love you to share it with our audience. it's a lot to talk about. it's a very compelling dense book,

but what are these other factors that actually make it very hard for political systems to respond that you say, or, or other mega threats that, that even if we get the finance side, right, we're dealing with other dimensions that could really capsize us. well, as you pointed out in the book, in addition to economic monastery and financial risk, i talk about those that are connected to these economic and financial rates, but they're not directly. so one of them, of course, is the risk of a cold war is getting cold. then of course, among the great powers that are all armed with nuclear weapons. and we have a bunch of reviews on his powers, china, russia, north korea, iran. the tara collies, of course, with us, europe, and the west. we could have a non conventional uncomfort them on great powers. ah war,

car tory ukraine is already getting worse. is around might strike iran this year, given the rod is becoming a trash. look our state. and the cold war between us and china is getting cold there by the day. and is only matter of time will be a come from based on the issue of taiwan. that's one set of race. second, ma'am, of course, global climate change is becoming a disaster with acceleration in the rise in temperature and the economy and financial damage from climate change across the world. those of examples of what's happening today. it's a disaster. we realize now that severe a global and then makes made or occur. cor, 19 for many reason is not going to be the last nor the most virulent. and while a i can increase, they can amik by eventually it leads to carmen and they can have all the got unemployment among routine jobs that are blue color initially. but them white

collar jobs that are cognitive, that can be slice, and a series of our commit that task, and even some of the creative jobs given then you'll generative ai techniques will be eventually outcome. and that it will also increase the income. and while in a quality because this, the clouds are captive intensive scale by us and labor saving. so if you on that copy, tell you the, well, if you are the top 10 percent distribution of scale, it makes it more productive. but everybody as garage is going to challenge that in common jobs and finally they can make money for space. none of these are rising in a quality economic malaise. young generation fema be worse off than their parents as a backlash against liberal democracy and radical outdoor retired again. violence parties, populous parties of the extreme right or the extreme left are coming to power, both enough monster. com and then an emerging markets. now i said that things are

worse than this seventy's and worse than that, ask jeff c period. when some dimensions, things are even worse than 903rd of these. in those 30 years, with the 1914 and 945. in spite of the 1st, so i've globalization in spite of the 1st in that's a revolution. we did not prevent one then where the spanish flu. then we have the stock market crash of $29.00. then the beginning of the great depression, then inflation, deflation, hyperinflation, tre, doors, currency wars, financial crisis, massive defaults, unemployment, 25 percent. and then where the rise to power of knobs is in germany. fashion in italy, franklin, spain, and me, the thirty's in japan. then wed war war 2 and where the holocaust but as bad as those 30 years where there today for a major new mega threats that did not even exist at that time. at that time we

didn't have to worry about climate change in that, or these, we don't have to worry about a i this throwing job. so the computer had not even been invented. you know, at that time within an unfunded liability coming from aging. you know, we just create the social security and the average worker would die the age of 60, before he or she could get the 1st paycheck at 62, and as ugly as the war, little one in world war 2, where you are mostly conventional wars, was only again, a word or 2 when lucky me it was the u. s. rather than that, the, or the japanese will be of the bomb. and unfortunately, where to use it in the regime. and i guess i could 20 or will to. but if to they, there will be a sleet among major bowers. this are all armed with nuclear weapons that and that conventional war with easily and very fast escalate into unconventional. and

you could have a nuclear winter that could wipe out a good chunk of humanity. so by some standards, the current a geopolitical depression is more dangerous, in at least for a key dimensions than even the ugliest time we had with in 1914, in 1945. so what you're talking about is a trap that were in that even proactive positive steps can open the way for other problems. and i'd love you to share with my am i reading that right? and, and how hard is it to escape? and that trap to deal with that. so that this bleak future and we have any chance of escaping this bleak future that you write about you're right. but i point out in a chapter that it may be solutions to each one of these threads. but that as a column is no, there is no free lunch. most of the solution imply cos and sacrifices in the

short run for the common good domestic and global over them the long term and unfortunate that only jelly karla me of both democracy and i'll talk or see is kicking the count down the road. because politicians will do the sacrifices in the short run are not going to be in power, will be kicked out of power over time. and therefore we tend to not doing what's necessary. that's one of a big dilemma where facing so there are problems that are solution. the question is where that they are likely to be implement that or not. and i gave several examples on climate change. i why don't we do the right thing? that is least 5 constraints. one is that the in place like you asked, half of the country, doesn't believe in human driven climate change. so when that empower the reverse, what we need to do sagel and there is any interest, there is some conflict. i'm 65,

i'll be lucky if i leave another 30 years. a young person born today here, or she will leave us with on the years. the young, the vote, the old vote, and even the young are the willing to do the sacrifice as to reduce their carbon footprint. today, we should all become vega. we should all install solar panel, insulate our homes that don't use plastic, even the younger. i'm not willing to do it international and you have a free rider problem. if it comes, you are to do all the ask for then cost to cut the mission to 0 and nobody asked, does it the don't get any benefits they missions are global and they pay the cost and call the main thing i green 200 can't the right thing is mission impossible. then there's a conflict when the important that is why the timing, china and india cut your emission to 0 in the next 20 years. the way want to do in europe and us. they say you credit is problem for the last 200 years. 90 percent of the cumulative is stored in stock of emission comes from our industrial revolution

and we create this problem in our family border countries remain poor, don't go to catch every mission 0 in the next 20 years. they say no way, we're not going to do it. we're going to raise them until they call me that class or reach. and then we're going to deal with this problem. unless you bribe asked me to give us a tree number of transfer subsidies a year. u. s. congress is a part for being done, spare to change. no money in that account is going to do that for, for be done. you need to train them in. finally, in a while, the global, privately, us in china don't agree on how to deal with them. and was that talk for each that on agree on how to deal with economic and financial stability. they don't agree on free trade. that on agree of course, on global security, very hard to agree on climate change. that's why there is so much greenwashing greenwashing, green fig leaves. most of the investments are just the fig leaf that natalie is the

some all in favor with dealing with environmental disaster because we're down, we're going to destroy the planet, but at least 5. and i give another 5 or 10. how to say obstacles and constrained on doing what's desirable. so the reality is that what is likely to happen, unfortunately, is going to be very different from what's gonna necessary to wipe. and that's why corporate glasgow called at that trauma shake. we're told them cope out what on the way, not to 1.5, not to to one all the way to 2.5, possibly 3 degrees above a plain. that's their level. even to as a disaster, 2 and a half, it's got a strong think through the end of our planet. that's what we're facing right now. you know, one of the challenges you write out about is, is the u. s. dollar losing its role as the reserve currency of the world. and you said that really is, you know,

correlated with nations that are powerful you will kind of look at china rising larry summers. the former treasury secretary once said, don't worry about this. europe museum. japan's in nursing home and china is a jail as a way to say we're going to be fine. whereas larry summers wrong is wrong because there was, there's going to be divided into major cyril beam rents. one around us, europe, the west and our friends and allies, and wandering around china, russia, north korea, iran pakistan, and many companies that are doing much more business and trade with china than they do with the west. and i said the chinese model of state job survey has been of survey yes. so when i have a decoupling of the global economy to separate the economic trading, financial investment, technological and also social police to go see stems. one are on the west,

one around china, and therefore the chinese are going to increasingly want to replace that u. s. dollar when they do trade with their friends and allies. ah, and use that in b and already garage only doing it because you know, as the saying goes, if i owe you a b loan is my problem. if i were your 3 don't, is your problem. and chinese are holding $13.00 them dollar foreign reserves. the us dollar treasury's, but lacking type in florida, russia, where we seize the doors that for an absence of russia where they are in dollar euro, but it's on the chinese are awarded that as well in a collision course weed them on taiwan. eventually we're going to do the same. so they're going and timing their friends and allies. let him voice oil in the middle east in our in b, let me pay you in our m b. why don't you hold some of your reserves into i b and so on and so on. and then making inroads, steady, lance loading rods on me. so the doll is not going to be, it is gonna remain

a reserve currency, but from 8 unit paula world where it is dollar dominance, 2 thirds of all transaction and over reserve currency is dollar. when i go with bipolar was one center, they are on the us $1.01 cent around. they are in be that the cobbling fragmentation and ball compensation of the global economy becomes also at the coupling and fragmentation off the global reserves and currency sees them. i want to quickly show our audience a photograph of a house you write about ah, that was built through a i and 3 d printing. ah, and 2 people to human beings built this home in remarkable time with machines. and, and i just want to give you an opportunity neural to talk about the benefits that are going to come with technology and advancement and what we should be scared is, heck, about certainly a i machine learning or about things. auto may sharon quantum and relate that

technology eventually is going to increase the columbia pi potential growth is going to become much higher. we're not yet seeing it in the aggregate micro to give the numbers. there's only matter of time that's the positive side of it. so they'll be more goods and services, much cheaper. the dark side is multiple, 3 dimensional, read one, increasingly massive, permanent, technological unemployment. initially, blue color routine jobs, then white color cogney and give jobs. eventually given the general t v i even create the jobs. secondly, this technology is out of carbon intensive scaled by the labor saving. if you're in the machine or the capitals on the machine, you'll do well. if you are in the top, maybe 15 percent of this revision of scales, education, human copied out,

probably the i make sure for the time being more productive. but if you're a low value out there or medium by rod, that blue color white color, increasingly your job in income is going to be tracked than by technology. that's why eventually we need you be i universe of basic income. but then what's a system where people dont have a big deal of work that essentially effectively like part of science or steve and welfare check for light? is it sustainable or what are the consequences socially and politically, but it's at the stop the i'm future wanting, which essence, i mean 95 percent of people live on u b. i is not a utopian future in my view, final thing, more psychological innovation. then i usually buy some governments, want to create that bigger weapons to fight bigger wars. that's what led to worldwide. that's what led to we're, we're to, that's what led to the nuclear weapons era and so on and so on. and we know there

is on was going to dominant and china, or u. s. is not only was gonna dominate the indices of the future, but who is going to be the dominant geopolitical immediately power times. that's why last year. and it means former ceo of google wrote a book together and kissinger, our forum was g o strategies our time. and you asked about if china wins they wore on a i, they're also going to be the dominant media that is security power. and with all ones, and i'll talk to tanya, state capitalists and aggressive china to dominate really telling the world absolutely not. so unfortunately, many innovations lead to weapons and then fighter big international war. it happened worldwide me that there were 2 in depth and with nuclear weapons coming before the power and even a startup nation like the israel, where there's a lot of thank you know,

based on it starts in the military and then he goes to submit the application the internet was great that by dar, the boeing $747.00 was the media by project before he was commercial. so unfortunately, the development of the cyber web on our toner was drones and vehicles and robust sold theirs and their war in ukraine. they're just the beginning of how a, i think large can be used to fight. the war implies that he's got even more violent and more virulent and nastier military conflicts among great powers. well, in my conversations i tend to be skeptical of optimism. and so this has been a great conversation. economist muriel rubini founder rubini, macro associates and professor at the stern school of business and new york university. thank you so much for being with us today. great pleasure being review and we're all down steve. so what's the bottom line? it's not about being pessimistic or optimistic. of course humanity has survived all sorts of calamities since the beginning of time. and we all hope that will flourish

in the future. but my guess today is right to point out that so many threats to the world as we know it are happening at the same time. crazy amounts of debt, artificial intelligence, a new cold war, a changing planet. and me 1st policies everywhere. to me, this last one is the scariest as individuals and as nations, folks just don't want to compromise or cooperate with each other for the collective good. and it's getting worse as resources diminish and people fight over crumbs. so when global challenges arise, think natural disaster or a global pandemic? good luck getting countries to sit down and do what's right for all of us. and that's the bottom line, ah, how's coverage of africa is what i'm most proud of. every time i travel bay, whether it's east to west africa, people stop me and tell me how much they appreciate coverage. and our focus is not

just on their suffering, but also on the more publicity and inspiring story. people trust volunteer to tell them what's happening in their community in a clear and, and by end of an african, i couldn't be more proud to be part of, you know, women, ron micro businesses are key to center goals development and to improve food security. access to finance helps them succeed since 2014, nearly a $180.00 micro enterprises, collectives and small businesses across cynical, received concession re financing. these loans were made possible by an initiative administered by the q 8 good. will fund the q 8 fund partners in development waterloo.