had this for the biggest downpours are and we've god's tropical cyclone freddie looking to make it 2nd land fallen mozambique late friday, early saturday. ah, a legacy of southern africa, colonial history. formal a blend of traditional music with western instrument. i can guide all the vividness of the song now echoes in apartheid disused mines where a new illegal gold rush has taken hold of organized crime, gangs battle for control of this lucrative industry. huge that started in song too often and, and bloodshed. the accordion was on a, just a new wave of russians. flights across ukraine was the death toll. now in the bloody battle for bad thoughts with both sides, seemingly as far apart as ever. is the war knocked in a violent stalemate?

what chances for diplomacy? this is inside story. ah . hello there and welcome to the program. i'm laura kyle. about of rush and asked strikes, woke people up right across ukraine on thursday morning. some of those reportedly and bold hypersonic missiles which can travel up to 8 kilometers a 2nd. is the latest wave of attacks and a conflict that shows no sign of ending. russia has a limit. his talk of the advance hypersonic missiles which ukrainian defenses were unable to intercept. the change in tactics from week to week has made the war hard to predict. and for those facing the strikes, they never know when a missile will come to their home. park, you hello. i was in the park at 6 am in the morning on my way home or i'll get you

over my head. it was very loud and after that there were 2 powerful explosions. i saw that it was flying towards my house and when i arrived i saw a big fire. my car was burning, but there was nothing i could do. it was too dangerous. it doesn't make sense to me how this can be the 21st century, and there are some kind of wild people for doing this. just as savages me. no, no, i'm super slow. my house shook. i immediately understood that it hits somewhere next to my house. it is just 50 steps away. i feel so sorry for such a good girl, and more people died. oh, in the east. meanwhile, ukrainian generals have promised to defend the city of back much reversing speculation that a pullout was imminent. moscow has been pouring and military resources and mercenaries from its wagner group. both sides have suffered heavy losses. the capture of backbone has become a major military objective. the city itself has little strategic importance,

but the lengthy battle suggests a symbolic victory for whoever controls it gets while gets in just a moment. but 1st, let's take a quick look at who controls water in the ukraine. russian forces have taken these regions in red and pushing a thin front line against thousands of positions. ukrainian forces recently took control of the city of cason and are resisting the russian offensive whilst awaiting much needed nato equipment. despite that concentration in the east, russian artillery and miss are the types of still targeting other regions across ukraine. ah, that's bring in august now and in moscow level falcon. how a defense and military analyst in odessa, hannah's last director of security programs at the think tank, ukrainian prism and in both england, patrick barry and associate professor insecurity at the university of both are very welcome to each of you hannah. let's go you 1st because these russian missiles,

they've been hitting cities and sites across ukraine, including that in odessa, where you are, what happened? where did they strike? you know, d, o, these attack was again for the critical infrastructure, the dominant energy infrastructure wrong because people are just not so successful as previously. but we also need to understand that the, the tech was the 1st big attack after the moms of wallace, calmness and small arms style, to use the gas to crate glass to be used approximately a to one. the different type of south that's also demonstrates the capacities all via russian stripes as for now, because they use some like 5 or 6 different types all the in the south, including 16 jobs. and what is interesting that, that is that very rare on sale swatches. didn't have a lot of them and the premium here, the use the same amount as we do during the night. so that demonstrate that each

time was such a big accumulating effort and accumulating those will size that they can iranian shake hands again. these like, think were used above what was the point of these strikes? oh, for sure. it was announced in moscow that these were reprisals, foreign alleged ukrainian as so parties are re, didn't brown score worst, which russia described as a terrorist attack. and the korean you're far, this is they didn't have anything to do with it. so this was sort of some kind of kind of reprisal, mostly again targeting your cranium. a power grid infrastructure . we're apparently the russian want very long already campaign of such attacks. well, rather failed because of the power grid and ukraine managed to continue as they premium for managed through

a cover up there was the power grid is functioning. so in the strategic with tactic, we're yes, it's a spectacular tax spectacular attacks. and patrick, do you, do you agree with that? what's the strategy here? as you said, from the russians using all these different types of missiles, including these hypersonic missiles? well, of course, the use of the hypersonic and the different missile systems to try to get around and increasingly capable air defense suite that ukraine has. an obviously we've seen them hitting higher percent or be able to target higher percentage of russian missiles than there were say the early stages were steadily getting better because the new systems are coming in. but this is jeff, are the patrick system, etc, etc. and they're getting a slow to getting a layered air defense system. so using more advanced missiles using, fired from different kinds of platforms with different directories, just makes it more difficult to track everything and take it to the strategy. look,

i think it, the appraisal thing is definitely accurate, but i also think, you know, what we see is a, a pattern here. basically russia suffers a setback, and then it releases a series of barrage attacks and that's been going on since last summer. remember the tax when they started off on shopping centers, etc, right through to the concerted campaign against critical national infrastructure over the winter to try to put the pressure on ukrainians as sort of amazing to what would be comparable to a strategic bombing campaign say in the 2nd world war, the point is these, these companies start work. there's no evidence to suggest parking, a local area on a local level, that the population's morale has changed for the worse. you know, they just, there's no evidence to suggest that why would you, if you were getting bombs, then go yeah. ok. let's give. it just doesn't work on that. you know, i want to kill them. i know you won't that do agree with patrick that it does

nothing to change the morale in the play list at the very least be absolutely terrifying for people. definitely that is terrifying. choices. spend your life in the shell so or was the 1000 trust me. he would look like this, but the question is that we are living with these for the whole year. it is a psychology of people used to all the difficulties that he's going to have. that's a lot of things with this type of a pack of institution is absolutely the same person. will you kind of be prepared for these? you don't know which region candidates are just today. we had odessa be bush thorn if the all around the country at the same time are really we will work in the beginning of the winter with all these attacks against the critical infrastructure . because what it is called the might of san minus 15 without them just in teaching . that's difficult. but we survived this winter of both because we bought all the gym would be the generators, other types of the power balance. so all the additional supply that allows the

business and the company to work and household to work at the same time, ha, spring came. so definitely you that's easier said of the polls for example. and the people just look to be, comes up with you becoming just more angry. but at the same time, you know, amber is probably not the best term, but to finance you against russian as against the attack dog. that's something that old people are discussing, tiredness and disgust, select to the rochester, you know, when you're coming to the old call, they come in and come in and you're fighting and fighting the killed one day. you will have all these attacks just to stay with them. for one more moment, these attacks, they did strike this up for each a nuclear power plant and they've taken it offline. that is considered to be extreme worrying by the rest of the world by the i a especially. does russia see that is a victory? little victory would be, is it if your cranium agree to kind of,

if not the piece agreement to try are based on more or less the line of control as it is right now, except thing. a rush and advances and a rush and taking over parts of your grain. oh, that's not happening. that was more spark with the hope of this whole campaign as it began to deprive the ukrainians of power grid during the winter. it didn't work out as it was intended, because well, these miss sol slow quite the numbers landing, but if compared to how many americans could send, say crews marseilles load, this is not very much. and most of the marseilles that are being used were basically designed originally, but as a delivery systems of nuclear weapons and they, when they carry conventional ones, well, they're not as effective just simply, they're not as accurate because they,

when you're using you, you don't really need that much accuracy, i mean area with mekaux is where they're rush and general staff was planning. a massive use of nuclear weapons was envisaged. and then the number of such attacks would have been really deadly. but then again, this is nathan. you were award this award now with make or it's a war by proxy. and this thing is not working and syria use such massage. we're also massive. we used, but they were kind of just in addition, most people's rush and bombers, having a higher overhead than bombing here. they can't because the ukrainian air defenses are too good for them and the russian air force is not good enough. so this is not really working strategically as it was intended. ok, well let's zone in then pavel on the battlefields and look back much went past one could argue that russia is having some more success. we've seen the wagner group

claim control of the eastern part of the city. how likely is it possible? do you think that the group is going to take the whole city in the coming days? oh, woe your cranial command and political leadership, the parents who decides to hang on in back moment. a parent we works happening there right now on the ground, is that the ukrainians retreated behind the line of the bar mosca river in which is a narrow road rather steep banks river. they blew up several bridges, and that my mormon divides the city a half, and that's a reasonable position to take in it to continue the fancy fraction. so that means that taking half his mouth doesn't mean they'll take or very soon. okay, now there something, pause there as i understand a pause, but it has been a battle of attrition has been with huge losses on both sides. hannah,

why is the lensky refusing to poll? forces out of back murder even if it was reported? it does appear that his top murphy commander suggested that they should retreat. ah, we have these, so news only the poor in the media. we don't have the confirmation that they want to be retrieved. so that is, let's say, we don't know what is the truth here. but in general, we need to understand the question of trying to take the cd since july. and so that was very important for drawing their courses out, meaning that they are losing a lot of courses alone, took weekends and ammunition. they're better for us because they tell us the bombs, the, as they are losing their at the same time. most kids, you're right. it may be also important. but a psychological or that will be very important for the russian duration, because they can prove before july they brought a tom towels and we need. so the said, the boss is quite a small child, said to 1000 people in a big village in your prey. it was

a symbolic c t a. their mother was in a 2 story call as a whole mind wherever, but most of the military point, a few spots as the symbol as the symbol of we fall with the portrait. but most because of all those fast happening from there, the battle, that's why definitely be courses s and i will send a lot that's a lot not too low. russia to go with head because we understand that mr. bush, him and his desire to occupy, completed the next creature we were discussing. several deadlines that for youth forces each time it's not happening though it is ruining the strategic plan of the rush situation as well. patrick, what do you think about this battle for back to a 100 points out has been going on for many, many months. huge losses on both sides, but it is much more symbolic than strategic 7 months now. yes, i think so. obviously, political reasons. russian needs

a win and therefore this was the place it was going to be. again, it would have given them more control to potentially be under our control. and if there was a negotiated settlement, there's the internal politics thing between because in the, the russian military and he said he'll take it so he's got a lot of interest to do. so the russian ministry also came to undermine of and take themselves. you've also got that because it's gone on so long and in so many people so many people have been killed maybe 30 days and russians and you're going to be in the thousands of ukrainians, at least that there's a blood sacrifice there. and there's blood capital being expended, there is then political capital, which comes with that. yeah. before for spot moves, it suddenly becomes a bit more important than it was like for done in the 1st world war. you know, in the pastoral part was, was a french settings because they lost so many people. and unfortunately, as a sort of reverse psychology, let me kill more people because you got so many people as i know from serving in afghanistan, but nevertheless,

i think really what's going on here. if you zoom and what this is about, i would do this is a shaping operation by the ukrainians. that means they're trying to set the conditions using this operation for other operations. what are they trying to do? know that they've got a defensive advantage in their release, killing 3 times the amount of russians for everyone. they lose, it could be up between $5.00 and $7.00. yeah. and therefore, it's in their interest to continue this battle as long as they can do so without getting a lot of forces in circles are cut off. and what they're trying to do is drain russia and keep will attacking them at a place of their choosing. and that means that russia is not actually going on to the defensive, its focus is on taking back mood. and that makes a lot of sense for ukraine. right? so, papa, what's your response to that? that in back months, the, i, dear, it was a thought is the estimate is that $3.00 to $5.00 russians are being off for every ukrainian. are you hearing those sort of numbers in russia?

is that common knowledge in russia? what was sort of hard to say because both sides are non publishing. there are actual numbers of casualties and who's losing more mild assume that it's kind of more or less equal, most likely. i couldn't mention bad 2 of them in 1916. actually the defend the room french was more than their taking german, but basically it was more was the same, but they was a bit more. but it's highly symbolic. if buckman falls, but that's a great moral booster for the russians us. and for the kremlin and internal politics and apparently military considerations are taking 2nd and 3rd kind of place here for both sides or back of will's works. 1000 grad wear them

a meat grinder actually. and the military considerations are secondary. how significant possible is it for the wagner policy of kenny fingers in to have this victory? he's becoming a very powerful voice on the. busy battlefield and certainly is quick to criticize the crammed in the defense ministry. if he does not fail, he's getting enough support. how significant is he becoming a very significant he has a private army. this has dramatically expanded during the last year or from several 1000 deplored somewhere in syria or the central african republic, cargo where 2 cans of 1000 a tanks or 2 or 8. and he's close personally to the boats in and he's probably attacking the defense minister and the defense

ministry, his 2nd in command general restaurant. so he is a very vocal political figure in russia with his own private army fighting out there and with connections in the grammar and then he's financing. so for him, it's a really high important see thing to take over bar mode. for the defense ministry mascara, they don't want him to take over backwards. give the laurel victory because he's their political opponent. so there's a lot of fighting happening there on the russian side. patrick, when you look at nist in fighting happening between the wagner group and the defense ministry just just to say, posing a problem for russia and presenting a united front against the crime. i think that goes in and saying, you know, you don't want your, a large mercenary army at all with your army. but listen, russians have problems with command control and leadership since day one of this

war. so as part of the course at this stage, you know, i think really, you know, the issue about moving the like, where do they go if they type in the say. all right, so, but the learn to west of back moved directly west is on a higher ground, easier to defend the 2 roads which lead north west will southwest the northwest want to chrome torsional dance. you know, they'll be defensive lines around there. they'll be defensive lines. around it, it doesn't change the house that much, you know, so far my view on this again, strategically. this is a bi reserves. yeah. it's about draining, combat power if you crane can get through this, you know, grinding a tricina warfare without committing the reserves, which it needs to keep back and intact for the summer where it's going to try an attack in probably one or 2 places. that's a victory for ukraine and russia is trying to take this in a meat grinder. ready effect a those have someone committed, committed reserves as far as we understand,

but the chances of them being able to conduct a break and then take boss ways of ukrainian territory is questionable to say the least. so it's really about reserve manpower and an eye on the future campaigns coming in the summers late spring. ok, i just wanna touch as well on the idea of peace talks because they really didn't seem to be only a gender at the moment of we've just had here in sexual general antenna. good terrorist in key, no mention of peace talks by him. only discussing grain and accessibility of going to the rest of the world. is it on anyone's minds to get russia and ukraine to the same table? there a different proposals coming just recipe. china spread their position. the question is, the talks is just the instrument, how it is moved out to mid bill, the is what we're going to discuss at these group associations. and here we see that the rational position has not changed since march last year. when we had these negotiations at bedtime,

they were much higher chance as to why and some compromises that were confessionals from 2 sides that would we have up to the year of those mid course, the ability, somebody symbol and the chaise. so that's why the united nations in general, secretary general took very low profile during the surveys and led wallace and ethanol. we came, the grain deal is the most important. now these march, it should be yes, one problem geisha. and we'll also sure that russia would allow this problem geisha . that's why he's trying now to negotiate these was the nuclear security, the nuclear power plot that we talked earlier. and in general, the security of all ukrainian nuclear power plants also about what united nation is talking to many area aid, some stuff like these. but they're more tragic to propose anything more that will be and looks like the united nations. as the secretary more waiting for others to propose, they are ideas. rush, what problem where there is proposal come from. we've had something produced from

china. the 12 point piece plan that's been sort of dismissed. what quite, why is more of a set of principles rather than a plan? what else? where else could we get ideas from? a little the russian, a grant one says that they had the same proposals as last march, basically, year. they were with agree for some kind of a, a freezing of the situation. our permanency fire based on more work, the line of control would some, maybe negotiations here and there kind of her or quit for good for pro quo or something which ukraine is not accepting. and the worst though says not accepting at least present to western governments, though donald trump says that he could do achieve peace, very swift with most likely, again on the brush in terms of as said on the cease fire on the line. more or less

than the line of control. so that means the positions of these parties are miles apart. a rochelle some more with it, though they praised the chinese proposal. they said the, the regret, one said right now it's not practical because there's no one to negotiate with in court, in the beach and key f. which means that before there are decisive chair of action in the cummings. or we spread weight spring summer military campaign which can change the facts on the ground. the next in the ground may change or may not. and already on the basis of that, somewhere in the summer beginning in the all come there can be negotiations on i finding something to kind of low a we go eyes the new situation on the ground as it is by then. okay, we're right now we're looking forward for a big fight. patrick, i can see him noting that, do you envision piece talked by the end of this yet?

what will the situation on the battle ground have to be like for that to take place? i think puzzles exactly right there. you know that it's, it's about fighting, not talking now, and the results of that will inform any chance of talking. so there will be, i'd imagine, but we know of opportunity come the all winter. but this is an interesting thing about timing here. you know, is problem mentioned donald trump statement, say, who knows if you'll be the president or not. but there is an election at the end of 2024, very important one in the united states of which united states policy could change . there is a section of the republicans that said the u. s. is essentially 2 involved in ukraine, and that will be weighing heavily on on ukrainian timescales. i would a thought. secondly, rush, if it holds on, you know, has an advantage about being able to produce weapons like artillery. and over time, you know,

on the current trajectory that may favor that there i come so i think there's a, there's a, there's an awareness essentially that you can wants to. first of all do as best account this summer and see where it is afterwards. and it doesn't really need to be your wants to be in a long term, or you know, more with russia because it may start to favor russia. again, you've got the whole point about western commitment to which so far as being great in terms of european commitment very strong. but could that could that waiver again? it just the variables get a bit more knowable is the longer you train pushes this eggs. so i think there will be a window, hopefully in the autumn i wouldn't do it unfortunately, depending on what happens on the battlefield. a frozen conflict through through escalation because we've seen that happen previously. for example, in korea, when you kind of hire was involved. so yeah, i think and there's a lot of us fee to pay for and we don't have full clarity or course i just that the

last fall is going to you the longer this trends on as, as patrick's is how concerned are you a craniums about wavering western support so radically definitely we depend, so also the additional ammunition that we are receiving. but at the same time, we need to understand that it is not just the united states with all big share of that the united states have now both politically, technically, but we have $54.00 nations in the wrong same group was the european union just made a decision i bought the joint procurement and production of the emanation. what is really important for ukraine through the union? the european countries would like to play a bigger role in these understanding that election can change station in the west. that's why it's just me that we should not just pick about the west or something tonight. it is something some go. there are different options and ukraine is working on me. don't forget that. you can also produce a lot of baffled by ourselves. so you saw that we did just relying on the supplies

from all west, from parkers at the same time, russian federation is decreasing the amount of what they produce. it is absolutely love the same level. first of all, fraction the 2nd because approx with 70 percent of the part of the sales are made a good, but most in russia and in giant committee will be a statistically south to be made in ukraine. so that's why now me see much less production as they are also in a hurry because of the sale. the sense that such a 6 as the night is not what they can do for a long time. i've been a fascinating discussion. i want to thank all of you for joining us here today. i will focus how, how much less and patrick fury and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website that's al jazeera dot com and votes . gushing. do go to while facebook page that's facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter handle as at a j inside story. from me laura kyle and the whole team here in doha. it's bye for

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