and some right, coming out of africa, so now they're behind it significantly cooler. which will mean it will be too much to say in northern pakistan. ah, what is the city has become a major global issue? the demand is going straight up and the supply is going straight down, turning an essential natural resource into a commodity traded for profit, just because it's life, i mean, it cannot be priced. what about the guy that can't afford it? guy still needs water out there examines the social financial and environmental impact of water privatization loads of water on al jazeera, a new wave of russians, flights across ukraine was the death toll. now, in the bloody battle for back thoughts with both sides seemingly as far apart as ever. is the war knocked in a violent stalemate? what chances for diplomacy?

this is inside story ah. with hello there and welcome to the program. i'm laura kyle about of russian asked strikes, woke people up right across ukraine on thursday morning. some of those reportedly and bold hypersonic missiles which can travel up to 8 kilometers a 2nd, is the latest wave of attacks and a conflict that shows no sign of ending russia has a limit. his talk of the advance hypersonic missiles, which ukrainian defenses were unable to intercept. the change in tactics from week to week has made the war hard to predict. and for those facing the strikes, they never know when a missile will come to their home. spark your hello. i was in the park at

6 am in the morning on my way home or okay. q over my head. it was really loud and after that there were 2 powerful explosions. i saw that it was flying towards my house. and when i arrived, i saw the choir, my car was burning, was that there was nothing i could do. it was too dangerous. it doesn't make sense to me how this can be the 21st century. there are some kind of white people for doing this. just savages. me know how good mom. so for my house check, i immediately understand that it hits somewhere next to my house. it is just 50 steps away. i feel so sorry for ayana. she was such a good girl and more people died. oh, in the east, meanwhile, ukrainian generals have promised to defend the city of back mart, reversing speculation that a pullout was imminent. moscow has been pouring and military resources and mercenaries from its wagner group. both sides have suffered heavy losses. the capture of backbone has become a major military objective. the city itself has little strategic importance,

but the lengthy battle suggests a symbolic victory for whom ever controls it will get to august in just a moment. but 1st, let's take a quick look at who controls what in ukraine russian forces have taken these regions in red and pushing a thin front line against dozens of positions. ukrainian forces recently took control of the city of cason and are resisting the russian offensive. whilst awaiting much needed nato equipment. despite that concentration in the east, russian artillery and miss either tax or still targeting other regions across ukraine. ah, let's bring in our guests now and in moscow puzzle fell gun, how're a defense and military analyst in odessa. hannah's last director of security programs at the think tank ukrainian prism and in both england, patrick barry and associate professor insecurity at the university of birth of a warm welcome to each of you. hannah. let's go you 1st because these russian

missiles, they've been hitting cities and sites across ukraine, including their in odessa, where you are, what happened? where did they strike? you know, d, o these attack was again for the critical infrastructure. we have to dominantly energy infrastructure wrong because people are just not so successful as previously . but we also need to understand that the, the tech was the 1st big attack after the models of more, less calmness and smaller messiah, to use the gas to crate glass, to be used approximately $8.00 to $1.00. the different type of south that's also demonstrates the capacities all via russian stripes as for now, because they use some like 5 or 6 different types all the in the south, including 16 jobs. and what is interesting that, that is that very rare on sales threshold didn't have a lot of them. and the premium here, the use the same amount as we do during the night. so that demonstrates that each

time for such a big it's as of the accumulating effort and accumulating those will say that they can not iranian shake hands again. this like think we're used above what was the point of these strikes? oh, for sure. it was announced in moscow that these were reprisals, foreign alleged ukrainian. and so parties are re, didn't brown score worst, which russia described as a terrorist attack. and the premium for this is they didn't have anything to do with it. so this was sort of some kind of kind of reprisal, mostly again targeting your cranium for a power grid infrastructure, where apparently the russian want very long already campaign of such attacks. well, rather failed because of the power grid and ukraine managed to continue as they premium for managed through

a cover up there was the power grid is functioning. so in the strategic with tactical, yes, it's a spectacular tax spectacular attacks and pat tag team. you agree with that? what's the strategy here is use is from the russians using all these different types of missiles, including these hypersonic missiles. while, of course, the use of the hypersonic and the different missiles systems to try to get around and increasingly capable air defense suite that ukraine has. an obviously we've seen them hitting higher percent bank be able to target higher percentage of russian missiles than, than there were say, the early stages were steadily getting better because a new systems are coming in. well, this is jeff r, that patrick system, etc, etc. and they're getting a slowly but getting a layered air defense system. so using more advanced missiles using, fired from different kinds of platforms with different directories. just makes it more difficult to track everything and take it to the strategy. look, i think it

a reprisal thing is definitely accurate, but i also think, you know, what we see is a, a pattern here. basically russia suffers a setback, unleashes a series of garage attacks and that's been going on since last summer. i remember the tax when i started off on shopping centers, etc, right through to the concerted campaign against critical national infrastructure over the winter to try to put the pressure on ukrainians as sort of amazing to what would be comparable to a strategic bombing campaign. say in the 2nd world war, the point is these, these companies start work. there's no evidence to suggest parking, a local area on a local level, that the population's morale has changed for the worse. you know, they just, there's no evidence to suggest that why would you, if you were getting bombs, then go yeah. ok. let's give. it just doesn't work on that. you know, i want to kill them. i know you won't that do agree with patrick that this does

nothing to change. the morale in the u. k. must at the very least be absolutely terrifying for people. i definitely that is to refine, try to spend your life in the shower or with trust me. he would not like us. but the question is that we are living with these for the whole year, and it is the stakeholders, your people used to all the difficulties that you that have that lot of things with this type of attack. so arbitration is absolutely the same person. will you kind of be prepared for these? you don't know which region candidates are just today. we had odessa be bush, a thorn if the all around the country at the same time are really we will weren't in the beginning of the winter. with all these attacks against the critical infrastructure, because it is called the might of san minus 2 seed without going to teaching that difficult. but we survived this winter of both because we both, all the general generators are the types of the problem. so all the additional supply that allows the business and big company to work and household to work at

the same time offerings came. so definitely view that you're not afraid of the goals, for example, and the people just know that the sums up with you becoming just more angry at all . but at the same time, you know, amber is probably not the best term, but to finance you against russian. again, lisa sat up, that's something that old people are discussing. tiredness as it does select to the rochester, you know, when you come into the old call, they come in and come in and you'll fighting and fighting the field. so the long day you will have all these attacks to stay with them for one more moment. these attacks they did strike this up for each a nuclear power plant and they've taken it offline. that is considered to be extreme worrying by the rest of the world by the a especially. does russia see that is a victory? low victory would be, is it if your cranium agree to kind of,

if not the peace agreement to cease fire based on more or less the wine of control, as it is right now, except being a russian advances and russian taking over parts of ukraine. oh, that's not happening. that was most likely the hope of this old campaign as it began to deprive the ukrainians of power grid during the winter. it didn't work out as it was intended because of all these miss sol, slow quite the numbers landing, but if compared to how many americans could send, say crews, marseilles load, this is not very much. and most of the missiles that are being used were basically designed originally, but as a delivery systems of nuclear weapons, and when they carry conventional ones, well, they're not as effective. just simply, they're not as accurate because they're when you're using you,

you don't really need that much accuracy. i mean area with nato, as we're nurse, and general staff was planning. a massive use of nuclear weapons was envisaged. and then the number of such attacks would have been really deadly. but then again, this is not a nuclear war. this is a, a war if not with major. it's a. busy war by proxy and this thing is not working and syria use such massage. we're also massive. we used, but they were kind of just in addition, most people's rush and bombers, having a higher overhead and bombing here. they can't because ukrainian air defenses are too good for them and the russian air force is not good enough. so this is not really working strategically as it was intended. ok, well let's zone in then pavel on the battlefields and look at back much went past one could argue that russia is having some more success. we've seen the wagner

group claim control of the eastern part of the city. how likely is it puzzled? do you think that the group is going to take the whole city in the coming days? a commanding political leadership apparently decided to hang on and apparently what's happening there right now on the ground. the green is retreated behind the river, which is a narrow but rather steep banks river. they blew up several bridges, and most divides the city a half. and that's a reasonable position to continue the fence or fraction. so that means taking half is not, doesn't mean they'll take all very soon. ok, now there's something reports, there isn't a pause, but it has been a battle of attrition has met with huge losses on both sides. hannah,

why is the lensky refusing to poll? forces out of back murder, even if it was reported, it does appear that his top military commander suggested that they should retreat are we have the news only in the current media. we don't have the confirmation that in mind to get retreated. so that is, let's say we don't know what is the truth here, but in general we need to understand the questions are trying to take the cd since july. and that was very important. so we're drawing their forces out, meaning that they're losing a lot of courses, a lot of equipment and ammunition there. that isn't for us because they can't bonds as they are losing their at the same time a strategically. all right? so you can maybe not so important, but a psychological that will be very important for the rush of the duration because they can prove it since july. they brought at the towel and we need to sell the box, which is the quite a small town. 20000 people it so like

a big village in your prey, it was a symbolic. see here they are another. what else in it historical as us or mind wherever, but most of the military point of view. but so as the symbol, as the symbol of we follow the course red ball most because of all those that's happening from there, the battle. that's why definitely before says s and i will send a lot that's a lot not too low. russia to go with head because we understand that mr. bush and his desire to supply completed the next creature. we will discuss several deadlines that you forces each time it's not happening though it is ruining the strategic plan of the rush situation as well. patrick, what do you think about this battle for back to a 100 points out has been going on for many, many months. huge losses on both sides, but it is much more symbolic than strategic 7 months now. yes, i think so. obviously, political reasons. russia needs a when, therefore,

this was the place it was going to be, again, it would have given them more control on it can potentially be under their control if there was a negotiated settlement. there's the internal politics thing between because in the, the russian military and he said he'll take it so he's got a lot of interest to do. so the russian ministry also came to undermine of take of themselves. and you've also got that because it's gone on. so long and in so many people, so many people have been killed, maybe 30000 russians. and you're going to be in the thousands of you grains, at least that there's a blood sacrifice there and there's blood capital being expended. there is then political capital, which comes with it before for spot moves, it suddenly becomes a bit more important than it was like for done in the 1st world war, you know, in the pastoral power was the french set out because they lost so many people and unfortunately, as a sort of reverse psychology, that's me kill more people because you got so many people as i know from serving in afghanistan, but nevertheless,

i think really what's going on here. if you zoom and what this is about, i would do this is a shaping operation by the ukrainians. that means that trying to set the conditions using this operation for other operations. what are they trying to do? know that they've got a defensive advantage in their release, killing 3 times the amount of russians for everyone. they lose, it could be up between $5.00 and $7.00. yeah. and therefore, it's in their interest to continue this battle as long as they can do so without getting a lot of forces in circles are cut off. and what they're trying to do is drain russia and keep will attacking them at a place of their choosing. and that means that russia is not actually going on to the defensive, its focus is on taking back mood. and that makes a lot of sense for ukraine, right? said, well, what's your response to that, that in back months, the idea or the thought is, the estimate is that 3 to 5 russians are being off for every ukrainian. are you hearing those sort of numbers in russia? is that common knowledge in russia?

what was sort of hard to say because both sides are non publishing. there are actual numbers of casualties and who's losing more mild assume that it's kind of more or less equal, most likely. i couldn't mention bad 2 of them in 1916. actually the defend the room french was more than they had taking german, but basically it was more was the same, but they was a bit more. but it's highly symbolic. if buckman falls, but that's a great moral booster for the russians us and for the kremlin and internal politics . and apparently, military considerations are taking 2nd and 3rd kind of place here. for both sides or back of will's works. 1000 grad wear them

a meat grinder actually. and the military considerations are secondary. how significant possible is it for the wagner policy of kenny fingers in to have this victory? he's becoming a very powerful voice on the. busy battlefield and certainly is quick to criticize the crammed in the defense ministry. if he does not fail, he's getting enough support. how significant is he becoming a very significant he has a private army. this has dramatically expanded during the last year or from several 1000 deplored somewhere in syria or the a central african republic cargo where 2 cans of 1000 a tanks or 2 or 8. and he's close personal way to the boats in and he's attacking the defense minister and the defense

ministry. his 2nd in command, general gear, russia. so he is a very vocal political figure in russia with his own private army fighting out there and with connections in the kremlin that he's financing. so for him, it's a really high important see thing to take over bar mode for the defense ministry mascara. they don't want him to take over backwards and get the laurels victory because he's their political opponent. so there's a lot of fighting happening there on the russian side. patrick, when you look at this in fighting happening between the wagner group and the defense ministry, just just to say, posing a problem for russia and presenting a united front against the crime. i think that goes and i'm saying, you know, you don't when you're, you're a large mercenary army at all with your army and but listen, russia had problems with command control and neither ship since day one of this war

. so as part of the course at this stage, you know, i think really, you know, the issue about moving the like, where do they go if they type and say they're all right, so that the learn to west of back moved directly west is on a higher ground easier to defend the 2 roads which lead north west, south west, the northwest want to chrome, a torsional dance. you know, they'll be defensive lines around there. they'll be defensive lines around it. it doesn't change the house that much, you know? so therefore, my view on this again strategic, this is a by reserves, it's about draining combat power if you crane can get through this, you know, grinding a tricina warfare without committing the reserves, which it needs to keep back and intact for the summer where it's going to try an attack in probably one or 2 places, that's a victory for ukraine. and russia is trying to take this in a meat grinder. ready effect a those have someone committed, committed reserves as far as we understand, but the chances of them being able to conduct

a break and then take boss ways of ukrainian territory is questionable to say the least. so it's really about reserve manpower and an eye on the future campaigns coming in the summers late spring. ok, i just wanna touch as well on the idea of peace talks because they really didn't seem to be only a gender at the moment of we've just had here in sexual general antenna. good terrorist in keep no mention of peace talks by him. only discussing grain and accessibility of grain to the rest of the world. is it on anyone's minds to get russia and ukraine to the same table? how to read different proposals coming just recipe china spread their position. the question is, the talks is just the instrument. how it is moved out to mid gold is what we're going to discuss at these group associations. and here we see that the rational position has not changed since march last year. when we had these negotiations a bedtime,

they were much higher chance as to why and some compromises that were confessional from 2 sides. that to what we have up to the year of those mid course ability, some that symbol and shape. that's why the united nations in general, secretary general took very low profile during these invasion lead, wallace and ethanol. we kim, the grain deal is the most important. now these march, it should be yes, one problem geisha. and we'll also sure that russia would allow this problem. and that's why he's trying now to negotiate. this was the nuclear security of the nuclear power plot that we talked earlier. and in general, the security of all ukrainian nuclear power plants also about what united nation is talking to many terry and aid some stuff like these. but they're more tragic to propose anything more that will be and looks like the united nations, as the secretary is more waiting for others to propose. they are ideas. russia, where, where there is proposal come from. we've had something produced from china,

the 12 point piece plan that's been sort of dismissed. what quite why is more of a set of principles rather than a plan? what else? where else could we get ideas from? ah, well, the russian grand one says that they had the same proposals as last march. basically, they were with agree for some kind of a, a freezing of the situation. our permanency fire based on morris the line of control would some, may be negotiations here and there kind of her or quit for good for pro quo or something which ukraine is not accepting. and the worst though says not accepting at least present to western governments, though, a donald trump says that he could do achieve peace, very swift with most likely, again on the brush in terms of as said on the a ceasefire on the line. more or less than the line of control. so that means the

positions of these parties are miles apart. a rochelle, some more wis, though they praised the chinese proposal. they said the regret, one said right now it's not practical because there's no one to negotiate with in court, in the beach and key f. which means that before there are decisive chair of action in the cummings or we spread weight spring summer military campaign which can change the facts on the ground. the next in the ground may change or may not. and already on the basis of that, somewhere in the summer beginning in the all come there can be negotiations on i finding something to kind of low a we go eyes the new situation on the ground as it is by then. okay, we're right now we're looking forward for a big fight. patrick, i can see him noting that, do you envision piece talks by the end of this yet?

what will the situation on the battle ground have to be like for that to take place? i think puzzles exactly right there. you know that it's, it's about fighting, not talking now, and the results of that will inform any chance of talking. so there will be, i'd imagine, but we know of opportunity come the all winter. but this is an interesting thing about timing here. you know, is problem mentioned donald trump statement, say, who knows if you'll be the president or not. but there is an election at the end of 2024, very important one in the united states of which united states policy could change . there is a section of the republicans that said the u. s. is essentially 2 involved in ukraine, and that will be weighing heavily on on ukrainian timescales. i would a thought. secondly, rush, if it holds on, you know, has an advantage about being able to produce weapons like artillery. and over time, you know,

on the current trajectory that may favor their outcome. so i think there's a, there's a, there's an awareness essentially that you can wants to 1st of all do as best account this summer and see where it is afterwards. and it doesn't really need to be your wants to be in a long term, or you know, more with russia because it may start to favor russia. again, you've got the whole point about western commitment to which so far as being great in terms of european commitment very strong. but could that could that waiver again? it just the variables get a bit more knowable is the longer you train pushes this eggs. so i think there will be a window, hopefully in the autumn i wouldn't do it unfortunately, depending on what happens on the battlefield. a frozen conflict through through escalation because we've seen that happen previously. for example, in korea, when you kind of hire was involved. so yeah, i think and there's a lot of us fee to pay for and we don't have full clarity here. course i just did.

the last 4 is going to you the longer this trends on it as patrick's is. how concerned are you a craniums about wavering west support? so radically, definitely we depend, so also the additional ammunition that we are receiving. but at the same time, we need to understand that it loads just the united states with all big share of that the united states have now both politically and technically. but we have 54 nations in the same group was the european union just made a decision. i bought the joint procurement and production of the emanation. what is really important for ukraine through the union? the european countries would like to play a bigger role in these understanding that election can change station in the west. that's why it's just me that we should not just pick about the west or something tonight. it is something some go. there are different options and ukraine is working on me. don't forget that you can also produce a lot of baffled by ourselves. so you saw that we did just relying on the supplies

from all west, from parkers at the same time. rush federation is the greeting them out of what they produce. it is absolutely love the same level. first of all, fraction the 2nd because approx with 70 percent of the parts of the sales are made abroad, but most in russia and in giant committee will be a statistically south to be made in ukraine. so that's why now me see much less production as they are also in a hurry because of the sale. the sense that such a 6 as the night is not what they can do for a long time. i've been a fascinating discussion. i want to thank all of you for joining us here today. i will focus how, how much less and patrick buring and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website that's al jazeera dot com. and 1st question do go to our facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter handle is at a j inside story. from me,

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