rain is the big problem as the wind dies away, in complete contrast, the blazing hot sunshine in botswana with record high temperatures, ah, breaking down the headlines to expose in the powers attempting to silence reporting . what did you do? what to, to investigate? why didn't you ask the question? there are many during that said, fencer, it will have a chilling effect on subsequent story. the listening post doesn't cover the news. it covers the way the music cabinet to suppress moderate. and in some cases, amplify the content you see on your final bill if he has on, which is in iran and saudi arabia as a resumed diplomatic relations in a deal broken by china. which took the world by surprise. it's been welcome to cross the middle east and internationally, but not in israel. so what are the implications of the agreement in the region and

bill? this is inside story. ah, ah, hello, welcome to the program. i'm adrian finnegan, iran and saudi arabia arch restore diplomatic relations and an unexpected development between 2 powerful adversaries. entrenched on opposite sides on a host of issues and fighting and proxy was notably in yemen, syria and lebanon. she would have believed even days ago that a reprocess between the 2 was about to happen. the u. s. wasn't involved in the deal in a region where it would see itself as the dominant superpower, china broke the secret saudi around negotiations with the announcement of the successful outcome made in beijing. china has provided favorable

conditions for reaching the equipment. this is a very those tradition of the basic policies and costs sets of china's diplomacy, which includes the major initiative of building a community with a shirt future for mankind. that i strongly believe that under the guidance of the aforementioned diplomatic policies and concept, china will constantly play an important role in promoting international, regional peace and stability or gotcha, for i think the sense very clear signal to the world 1st. there is not only the green crisis, but also many other issues that are related to peace and people's livelihoods, which should be brought to the attention of all parties and need to be dealt with in a timely and appropriate manner. the 2nd signal is that no matter how complex the issue is and how acute the challenges are, as long as we sit down in the spirit of mutual respect and engage in equal dialogue, we'll be able to find the mutual acceptable solution to a problem. i think the 3rd signal is that the middle east belongs to the people of

the middle east. and the fate of the region should be in the hands of its people that will be discussing the implications of the deal in a moment with our guests. but 1st, let's find out what the public reaction has been. inter run from web ali hash reports. the agreement between iran and saudi arabia caught many in surprise. you hadn't forgotten the political polio zation over the past. yes, please. saudi arabia said to no one, but israel and the united states is the level of enmity and sometimes i had often and that's why because it leads to receive the news in different ways though they were. busy positive about it, but framing the whole development was read in different ways. in conservative newspapers for example, they saw this as a slot to the us and israel, what love it. and reformist saw it as a the end of a deadlock on, at the beginning of a wave of peace. but regardless of how it was framed,

expectations are high because many believe this was a deal between a security office shows and it's yet for politicians to start the dialogue. mainly when it comes to quality it's we have complications live. and that's why iranians and saudis ought to take big decisions, the level of tension between the 2 countries. the conflicting interest between the 2 countries, the media war that's been waging for the past 7 years between the 2 countries. these are all issues that are going to be discussed. these are all going to put a why is this on the table that could be i could not be taken by by both countries . the stakes are very high and everyone knows that. and then for, as we said, expectations are for inside story on the hash and ah, that's fine, i guess. then for today's discussion, thought is,

addie is associate professor at the university of tech ron. he joins us now via skype from doha. hillary man leverett is the ceo at the political risk consultancy strategy. she joins us now via skype from mclean, virginia, in the united states, also via skype from doha. abraham for i had a conflict resolution specialist and author of the book, iran and saudi arabia taming a chaotic conflict. a one welcome to you. all abraham had start with you. they've been on the slow burn for the past 2 years. what are your thoughts then on the restoration of diplomatic ties between saudi arabia and iran and the fact that it was china that facilitated the reproach meant despite years of talks mainly in iraq. yeah, i think it's about time that we are seeing this kind of development and i think the timing, there are 3 reasons that explained the timing. now, despite the 5 talks that they had in iraq,

but did not produce anything in the past, but we're seeing this now materializing in this kind of agreement. and now the 1st reason is i believe it's related to iran's latest development and it's a nuclear active with the enrichment of uranium to 83 percent. what is which is considered almost crossing the nuclear threshold, which has a 3 got it much closer, military collaboration between israel and the united states and the possibility of attacking iran. so it on wanted to neutralize some potential players in the region like saudi arabia, and be prepared in a strategy in order to respond to a nuclear development or a possible attack in the future. so this, from your perspective, this became an important step to take. now for the saudi arabia. so the idea has, we have seen a pattern of frustration with king, with,

by the administration over the past 2 years, which led saudi arabia to diversify. it's the security of partners and with other players. we have seen this in the voting job in the you and you can war and not taking the position that united states wanted to take. and the increase of how does the action to the energy needs that decrease through all the production levels that the u. s. in was in desperate need for it, so that saudi is looking at the east also to diversify. i think there's also links to, to china where to china, kim white time, right? moment like place is to where, with, and saudi arabia specially because out, because china has become in a difficult position where having to choose between iraq and saudi arabia and china

found that the only solution to this is that brings the 2 parties together in order to maintain it, economic interest will go feature and the amount of the same time. and for that we are seeing a china stepping outside this additional role and being an international mediator between the 2 countries. and it was successful. it went for all the bought hillary . where does this leave the united states will the bite of ministration now be forced to, to reevaluate it, standing in the region with china? obviously rising as a diplomatic and strategic player in the gulf. yes. you know, here in washington and i think throughout the united states, americans view the united states as the indispensable power, the indispensable power on the world stage, and the indispensable power in the middle east. what happened yesterday with the agreement between iran and saudi arabia brokerage by china is that china really

took almost took that spot. it made themselves. china is now really the indispensable power in the middle east facts. just a fact. china has the money. it has the diplomacy, it has the wherewithal to become the indispensable player. and so in washington there's really their surprise. i don't think they by the administration was ready for this development. i think there's concerned that the israelis were surprised. we saw prime, an israeli prime minister netanyahu, quote, unquote, back rounding reporters. but everybody here knows that it was, netanyahu criticizing the by the administration directly, that it was biden's weakness towards the middle east that enabled this deal. so in washington today there's a lot of consternation surprised and concerned about what the path is forward for you as power in the middle east and even more broadly around the world for i'll come to you just a moment, but i saw the abraham shaking his head though, well,

henry was talking of abraham, will you disagree with yes, to a certain extent. yes. i disagree. i don't think china we should rush into conclusion to assume that china has abandoned it's more than usually a neutral role in international conflicts. china had to take this action because it became under tremendous pressure having to choose between iran and south that a bit in terms of its economic interest. china has a trade relations with great volume, with the gulf of $150000000000.00. and also it receives 76 percent of its energy supplies from the golf. deborah easy was that, i know a few weeks ago was in visiting china. and he had focused over the military collaboration between china and south that is especially on big ballistic missiles. so china became under tremendous pressure,

did not want to give up neither iran nor saudi arabia. ok. and for that reason you only for the public interest. and i have by china had to grow, go to this and to try to get that integer. and i think it's prematurely to say that china is generally gets at the national bear. henry, what was it you wanted to say? yeah, mike, highlight next very, very good points. the key issue here is the united state could not have made this deal. the united states simply couldn't the united states doesn't have the relationship with iran to make this kind of deal that makes the united states not be indispensable country in terms of conflict resolution. and we saw china at the same time, really go on a diplomatic offensive throughout europe and with ukraine. now china's ability to broker big deals in the middle east and elsewhere is really center stage and the united states is not so well. i agree with my colleague, i'm many at his points. i do not think it china's giving up it's neutrality. but i

think the neutrality that china has ambient, along with its money and its diplomatic wherewithal is really put in china center stage. yes, it's under pressure, but it's their power and their agility to have relations with all countries that now makes them the indispensable nation. not the united states. thought is, what worries people here in washington for it? i'm sorry to keep you waiting. tell us what this restoration of ties means the in iran, the country appears to have successfully pushed back against regional isolation without having to make any major changes to policies at other other countries. hotline isn't an moderates in, in agreement on this, this restoration of diplomatic ties. i think they said that the enemy, it was unfortunate that these are to be a lot of money. and the so says i'm fighting with yes. and

it's that means that finally realize that that's a good policy and the fact that you have the hope. ringback agreement is actually implemented, there's all and people in the family basically as many movies and as the countries the able to add this patient. so we have to have the as. ready mentioned time off is many obviously, and there's a, lose me. the policy has been the policy of divide and conquer. they wanted to have the country fighting. that's i think,

united states, you know, that's the solution agenda sort of money. we had times people change that decision, fear that the talk was going to succeed. ok. so the money was in charge of the stocks can run these and the s s and it was because they said that. ready you don't know what i said, and i just wanted to, i wanted to, to, to ask you whether, whether one of iran's main motivations for normalizing ties with saudi arabia is that it could possibly expect after such a deal for saudi arabia to invest in the country. there by iran would circumvent us lead efforts to isolate the country economically,

economically, through sanctions. yes, i think that would be a hope, you know, in the next of the agreement with finding basing yes, senses agreements that was made in the 1900. 19 basically both sides trying to increase a cut on the corporation. so that is something that you think there is no reason for this type of tension. the type of relations that has a cut that for example, even solutions that don't long normalization or they cannot make exchanges. academic exchange function and then the saudis cannot engage the, the same type of the nation the same way you engaging with that isn't

as so i think that policy off. ok, you can get more. i thought the invitation, normalizing abraham in early days yet. but could this deal spark a domino effect you think, across the region? what are its implications for, for yemen? for lebanon, and for the iraq nuclear deal, of inconspicuous solution. we say that the real success is not in finding an agreement, but in implementing the agreement. so while signing this agreement in china is definitely an important step and it's an x and it's a good step, but towards reducing tension in the region and the middle east and out of world.

however, the success is in trying to implement this and this, the agreement being reflected on foreign policy behavior of the 2 countries and particularly iran. now, now we're in principle in theory, we are expecting to see tension reduction and particularly in lebanon, in syria, to a certain extent, and also in yemen and in iraq. because these 4 places these 4 countries in particular where you know, where we had a serious proxy conflict or proxy war between the 2 countries been around and saudi arabia happening for the past few years with this is guaranteed or not. i don't think we need also to jump into conclusion and assume that these problems will disappear because there are many challenges that facing the implementation of those . and the major one major challenge actually is not all of as well and the united

states. and i agree with the colleague who said that israel emerged as the biggest loser in this agreement, because this is going to affect the plans to normalize with saudi arabia to i sent an extent while the united states is looking hopefully that this agreement will end the war in yemen, but also it has other important effects for that you are strong in the region. and in order that of this is traditionally at delatory for the united states, the golf. now china is the one who is making the all this. so at the same time, and that's why i need, i think we need to be careful this agreement about the implementation. this agreement while it restored the proactive relations between the 2 countries and emphasizes none and thought of finance and that, and then affairs at the same time, the problem or the conflict with iran and the us. and israel has not been resolved

. and for that reason, you know, will always need from its own perspective, it's autumn melisha in yemen, in lebanon, and syria and iraq, and elsewhere. and for that these in, so the are militia, which is a serious problem for saudi arabia. they're not going to disappear in on is not going to dismantle it's out of milly, she has in the region. and this is again historic. and he has been a key concern for saudi arabia. because again from it, i'm going to perspective it on needs those felicia as in a possible confrontation with us and as well. so i think we need to be careful about a. 3 how much to expect? i think it's the, the proxy role where the dual countries supported the different part of this. this is something we can expect to see some whiteness been possibly here while where hope is that back on saudi land. i think such thing we are going to see

disappearing there. have in live been on also, if we can see some vision. but it's not going to solve all that. hillary, if israel and the foreman arab alliance against iran, this restoration of ties between iran and saudi arabia appears to have poured cold water on, on that one of the ymca you touched on it a few minutes ago. but what are the implications of the steel for israel in particular? well there's, there's actually some debate about that in washington right now. there is on one hand, the concern that secretary us secretary of defense lloyd austin, was just in the middle east. he was just in israel in egypt and he thought the duck defense department abide administration here. thought that they were continuing to work with israel to try to have this israel era alliance against iran and coming together against iran would be the glue that would bring these countries,

especially israel and saudi arabia together. clearly, that is not the case. and that's something that came to, to some surprise, if not shock, not only to the by the ministration, but people here in washington, especially concerned are those what i would call pro israel hawks here in washington. they see this is an absolute loser for us interests for israeli interest. and at least the israeli is with a quick question mark over what their strategy will be visa v. c. these would be that the saudis, the region, eat and even internally. however, given that there are some in washington who think maybe it'll be easier for israel now to have a normalized relationship with saudi arabia. they look at the example, the president of what happened with united arab emirates, united arab emirates, was able to reconcile with iran at the same time that it entered into what became known as the abram accords. and have they now have a very deep relationship with israel. so there are some here that think the

israelis could do that. now that saturday be a has quieted it's relationship with iran. it gives it a little bit more room to maneuver, perhaps even to formalize with israel. so there is some debate, but on the whole, the pro israel hawks here in washington and the by the administration are very concerned about this development for what it means for relations in the middle east . and especially for what it means for china's power on the world. stage for coming back to what abraham was saying a few moments ago about iran's militia. would iran after this deal now fully expect to be brought in from the cold if you like, in its own backyard. and in this region, i said with malicious yemen, fighting an invasion from

a neighboring country in russia was on the train. if russia should be condemned for attacking the train to see why that would be all attack and yemen should be supported by the united states and so on. so many of the people in that country ask you and, and try to support the manner that you have. a number of these people have the foreign policy government, not united militia proxy,

people who ask you and you have them. okay. and they have said many times, but we don't want to negotiate that. that is how you operate into the egypt has sense some one doesn't understand that. well, i don't think they can manage to fall. henry, saudi arabia has been deeply concerned about iran's nuclear program. to what extent will this normalization of ties have to address that? do you think with the p 5 plus one talks appearing at least to be to be going nowhere for the moment. and given the fact that those talks didn't fully address the concerns of key countries in the middle east, saudi arabia and, and israel could, he rose nuclear program. now you think, be addressed with china taps as a broker. and that the p 5 plus one tool to

a dead. but china is very interested in doing so they've made that quite clear. and now they have proven that they have the diplomatic offices, the platform, the wherewithal to address important issues around the world. perhaps even iran's nuclear program, though i doubt the china will focus just on iran's nuclear program to single iran out in a negative bad way. i think they'll probably look at it more in terms of the context for security cooperation in the region. and perhaps china will use its platform with the shanghai cooperation organization of which iran is now a full member. and saudi arabia has applied for membership. perhaps they will use that as, as a more multilateral cooperative platform to address issues like that. but i think the other key issue involving saudi arabia, which is very, very important in the united states, is that saudi arabia is now focus less on iran curricular program. and more on it's

on what it has made clear is that it was the united states to give it the green light to give saudi arabia as a green light to build out its nuclear program. and for it to have a full nuclear cycle with full enrichment, that would be a tremendous development that may not be so positive for the region and could potentially auger a new, a new kind of arms race in the region and something that the u. s. administration is seriously considering it would be a dramatic change in policy. abraham, i've got about a minute and a half left of the program here. the one thing the steel does show us is that saudi arabia is determined to conduct of foreign policy. independent of the west. what, what are the implications of that? of all, i think we need to take into consideration that this policy became very clear with the democratic party in power, especially the by the administration and did

a frustration with dealing with by then over the past years. let's remember that by didn't was the vice president when in 2015, they was signed an agreement with iran and it throws out that a beyond the bus without consideration. so there is a long history of it for installation, from saudi arabia with the biden administration and follow for that reason, i think we are seeing a path that now that we have saudi arabia is diversifying. it's now proposing get a itself to play a role. and, and maybe a think that conflict between a and you can and also it has not voted in favor of the was now we are seeing increased collaboration with china. i think this is a pat. this is not just something that's going to disappear. even when, if, even if the, by the administration just in the next election in 2024 and i think that you should

accommodate this in order. yeah. that, that goal is no longer i'm hopefully of security behind that. i'm afraid we're going to have to leave it. we're out of time. many thanks to you all for being with us for it is already hillary man, leverett, and abraham for i have as always, thank you for watching. don't forget, you can see the program again at any time just by going to the website at that's at al jazeera dot com. for further discussion, you can join us on our facebook page on facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. and of course, you can join the conversation on twitter idol at a j inside story for me, adrian finnegan and the team here it though. huh. thanks for watching. i'll see you again. ah ah.

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