northwest botswana, we've matched a temperature record for the month of march, with a high of $41.00 degrees that set season. ah, al jazeera goes beneath the waves with a team of women, determined to save the dolphins, will share the same responsibility with amazing on a man using a variety of scientific techniques to study their behavior, we can monitor them for their vocal photos and behavior. we're able to how they're adapt me for their new environment. women make science, dolphins sanctuary on al jazeera, iran and saudi arabia to resume diplomatic relations and a deal broken by china, which took the world by surprise. it's been welcome to cross the middle east and internationally, but not in israel. so what are the implications of the agreement in the region and

bill? this is inside story. ah, hello, welcome to the program. i'm adrian finnegan, iran and saudi arabia arch restore diplomatic relations and an unexpected development between 2 powerful adversaries. entrenched on opposite sides on a host of issues and fighting and proxy was notably in yemen, syria and lebanon. few would have believed even days ago that a reprocess between the 2 was about to happen. the u. s. wasn't involved in the deal in a region where it would see itself as the dominant superpower. china broke the secret saudi around negotiations with the announcement of the successful outcome made in beijing. china has provided favorable conditions for reaching

the equipment. this is a video demonstration of the basic policies and costs sets of china diplomacy, which includes the major initiative of building a community with a shirt future for mankind. yes, i strongly believe that under the guidance of the aforementioned diplomatic policies and concepts, china will constantly play an important role in promoting international and regional peace and stability. or to go to a shade. i think this deal says very clear signals to the world. the 1st there is not only deep green crisis, but also many other issues that are related to peace and people's livelihood, which should be brought to the attention of all parties and need to be dealt with in a timely, inappropriate manner. daresha, the 2nd signal is that normally how complex the issue is and how acute the challenges are. and as long as we sit down in the spirit of mutual respect and engage in equal dialogue, we'll be able to find a mutual acceptable solution to a problem. disagreement i thing,

the 3rd signal is that the middle east belongs to the people of the middle east. and the fate of the region should be in the hands of its people. or we'll be discussing the implications of the deal in a moment with our guests. but 1st, let's find out what the public reactions been inter run from web ali hashing reports. the agreement between iran and saudi arabia caught many and surprised yet into the political polio zation over the past. yes, please. saudi arabia said to no one, but israel and the united states is the level of enemy. and sometimes i handle and that's why policy can lead to receive the news in different ways. so they were. busy positive about it, what framing the whole development was that in different ways in conservative newspapers, for example, they saw this as a slot to the us and israel, what was written reformist. so as up the end of that lot on the beginning of a way of peace, but regardless of how it was,

frame expectations are high because many believe this was a deal between security officials and it's yet for politicians to start the dialogue mainly when it comes to quality kids were out of complications live and that's why iranians and saudis ought to take big decisions, the level of tension between the 2 countries. the conflicting interest between the 2 countries, the media war that's been waiting for the past 7 years between the 2 countries. these are all issues that are going to be discussed. these are all gone for the why is this on the table that could be i could not be taken by by both countries. the stakes out of betty. hi. everyone knows that. and then for, as we said, expectations audit products, i story on the hash, him intent on ah, that's fine, i guess. then for today's discussion,

thought is adi is associate professor at the university of tech ron. he joins us now via skype from doha. hillary man leverett is the ceo at the political risk consultancy strategy. she joins us now via skype from mclean, virginia, in the united states, also via skype from doha. abraham for i had a conflict resolution specialist and author of the book, iran and saudi arabia taming a chaotic conflict. a welcome to you. all abraham had start with you. they've been on the slow burn for the past 2 years. what are your thoughts then on the restoration of diplomatic ties between saudi arabia and iran and the fact that it was china that facilitated the reproach meant despite years of talks mainly in iraq. yeah, i think it's about time that we are seeing this kind of development and i think the timing then out of the reasons that explained the timing. now, despite the 5 talks that they had in iraq,

but did not produce anything in the past, but we're seeing this now materializing in this kind of agreement. and now the 1st isn't, as i believe it's related to iran's latest development on it's a nuclear active with the enrichment of uranium to 83 percent. what is which is considered almost crossing the nuclear threshold, which has a 3 got a much closer military collaboration between israel and the united states. and the possibility of attacking get on. so it on wanted to neutralize some potential players in the region like saudi arabia, and be prepared in a strategy in order to respond to a nuclear development or a possible attack in the future. so this, from your perspective, this became an important step to take. now for the saudi arabia, so the area has, we have seen

a pattern of the frustration working with by that administration over the past 2 years, which led saudi arabia to diversify. it's the security of partners and with other players. we have seen this in the voting job in the you and you can war and not taking the position that united states wanted to take and they increase the. busy how does the action to the energy needs that decrease through all the production levels that the u. s. in was in desperate need for it? so that saudi is looking at the east also to diversify. i think there's also links to, to china, china kim, white tie, right. moment like place is to where with it on saudi arabia specially because out, because china has become in a difficult position where having to choose between iraq and saudi arabia and china

found that the only solution to this is the to bring the 2 parties together in order to maintain it, economic interest with gulf vision and then at the same time and for that we are seeing a china stepping outside this additional role and being an international mediator between the 2 countries. and it was successful at web for all the bought hillary. where does this leave the united states will apply to administration now be forced to, to reevaluate it, standing in the region with china, obviously rising as a diplomatic and strategic player in the gulf. yes. you know, here in washington and i think throughout the united states, americans view the united states as the indispensable power, the indispensable power on the world stage, and the indispensable power in the middle east. what happened yesterday with the agreement between iran and saudi arabia brokerage by china is that china really

took almost took that spot. it made themselves. china is now really the indispensable power in the middle east. that's just a fact. china has the money. it has the diplomacy, it has the wherewithal to become the indispensable player. and so in washington there's really their surprise, i don't think they by the administration was ready for this development. i think there's concern that the israelis were surprised. we saw priming israeli prime minister netanyahu, quote, unquote, backgrounding reporters, but everybody here knows that it was netanyahu criticizing the bite administration directly that it was biden's weakness towards the middle east that enabled this deal. so in washington today there's a lot of consternation surprised and concerned about what the path is forward for you as power in the middle east and even more broadly around the world, florida, or come to you just a moment. but i saw the abraham shaking his head though, well,

henry was talking of abraham. will you disagree with? yeah, i said the next don't. yes, i disagree. i don't think china we should rush into conclusion to assume that china has abandoned. it's more than usually a neutral role in international conflicts. china had to take this action because it became under tremendous pressure having to choose between it on and so that i get in terms of its economic interest. china has a trade relations with great volume, with the gulf of $150000000000.00. and also it receives 76 percent of its energy supplies from the golf abraham racy was the president a few weeks ago was in visiting china. and he had focused over the military collaboration between china and south that area, especially on ballistic missiles. so china mckee, m under tremendous pressure,

did not want to give up. neither you nor saudi arabia. ok. and for that reason, you only for her by china had to broke out of this and to try to get that integer. and i think it's prematurely to say that china is generally gets at the national bank. henry, what was it you wanted to say? yeah, my colleague nix very, very good points. the key issue here is the united states could not have made this deal. the united states simply couldn't. the united states doesn't have the relationship with iran to make this kind of deal that makes the united states not be indispensable country in terms of conflict resolution. and we saw china at the same time, really go on a diplomatic offensive throughout europe and with ukraine. now china's ability to broker big deals in the middle east and elsewhere is really center stage and the united states is not so well. i agree with my colleague, i'm many at his point. i do not think it china's giving up it's neutrality,

but i think the neutrality that china has championed along with its money and its diplomatic wherewithal is really put in china center stage. yes, it's under pressure, but it's their power and their agility to have relations with all countries. that now makes them the indispensable nation. not the united states. thought it worries people here in washington for it. i'm sorry to keep you waiting. tell us what this restoration of ties means the in iran, the country appears to have successfully pushed back against regional isolation without having to make any major changes to policies at other other countries. hotline isn't an moderates in, in agreement on this, this restoration of diplomatic ties. i think they said that the enemy, it was unfortunate to me a lot of money and resources i'm fighting with yes. and it

means that finally realize that that's. ready a good policy and the fact that you have the hope that the agreement is actually implement that there's off and people on it on and basically as many movies and countries that have us do this. so we have iran, bennett, have the as mentioned, china is many obvious and it's ready losing the policy has been the policy of divide and conquer. they wanted to have maybe in countries fighting that's. ringback i think united states, you know,

solution agenda for the money, iraq, we have the new times, people change that the top 5 minutes, tuition fear that the talk was going to succeed. ok. so the money was in charge of those stocks can run these and the s s and it was because they said that you don't know what i said. and i just wanted to, i wanted to, to, to ask you whether, whether one of iran's main motivations for normalizing ties with saudi arabia is that it could possibly expect after such a deal for saudi arabia to invest in the country. and thereby, iran would circumvent us lead efforts to isolate the country economically,

economically, through sanctions. yes, i think that would be a hope you know, in the next big finding, raising yes, frances, when agreement was made in the 1919 basically both sides trying to increase the cut on the corporation. so that is something that you think there is no reason for this type of tension. the type of relations that has a cut event solutions that along normalization cannot make exchanges. academic exchange functions and you know, these and then the saudis cannot engage the, the same type of the nation the same way you engaging with that

isn't as so i think the policy okay. you can get more of the addiction, normalizing abraham early days. yeah. but could this deal spark a domino effect you think, across the region? what are its implications for, for yemen, for lebanon? and for the iran nuclear deal, up inconspicuous solution. we say that the real success is not in finding an agreement, but in implementing the agreement. so while signing this agreement in china is definitely an important step and it's an x and it's a good thing. it was reducing tension in the region and the middle east and out of

world. however, the real success is in trying to implement this and this, the agreement being reflected on the foreign policy behavior of the 2 countries and particularly iran. now, now we're in principle in theory, we are expecting to see tension reduction and particularly in lebanon, in syria, to a certain extent, and also in yemen and in iraq. because these 4 places these 4 countries and particular where you know, where we had a serious proxy conflict or proxy war between the 2 countries in iran and sound area happening for the past few years. with this is guaranteed or not. i don't think we need also to jump into conclusion and assume that these problems will disappear because there are many challenges that facing the implementation of those . and the major one major challenge actually is that all of israel and the united

states. and i agree with the colleague who said that israel emerged as the biggest loser in this agreement. because this is going to affect the plans to normalize with saudi arabia to i sent an extent while the united states is looking hopefully that this agreement will end the war in yemen. but also it has other important effects for that you are strong in the region have in order that of this is traditionally at delatory for united states, the golf. now china is the one who is making the live. so at the same time, and that's why i need, i think we need to be careful this agreement about the implementation. this agreement while it restored the plastic relations between the 2 countries and emphasizes none and thought of finance and but, and then affairs at the same time, the problem or the conflict with iran and the us. and israel has not been resolved

. and for that reason, you know, will always need from its own perspective, it's autumn melisha in yemen, in lebanon, and syria and iraq, and elsewhere. and for that reason, so the odd militia, which is a serious problem for saudi arabia, they're not going to disappear in on, is not going to dismantle. it's out of me. she has in the region. and this is again historic. and he has been a key concern for saudi arabia because again, from it, i'm going to perspective it on needs those felicia as in a possible confrontation with us and as well. so i think we need to be careful about a. 3 how much to expect? i think it's the, the proxy role where the dual countries supported a different part of this. this is something we can expect to see some whiteness been possibly here while where hope is that back on saudi land. i think such thing

we are going to see disappearing. there have been on also if we can see some vision, but it's not going to solve all that hillary. if israel had wanted to form an arab alliance against iran, this restoration of ties between iran and saudi arabia appears to have poured cold water on, on that one of the ymca you touched on it a few minutes ago. but what are the implications of the steel for israel in particular? well there's, there's actually some debate about that in washington right now. there is on one hand, the concern that secretary u. s. secretary of defense lloyd austin, was just in the middle east. he was just in israel in egypt and he thought the duct defense department abide administration here. thought that they were continuing to work with israel to try to have this israel era alliance against iran and coming together against iran. would be the glue that would bring these countries,

especially israel, and saudi arabia together. clearly, that is not the case. and that's something that came to, to some surprise, if not shock, not only to the by to ministration, but people here in washington, especially concerned are those what i would call pro israel hawks here in washington. they see this is an absolute loser for us interests for israeli interest. and it leaves the israeli is with a quick question mark over what their strategy will be visa, vc, vc that's the saudis, the region eat and even internally. however, given that there are some in washington who think maybe it'll be easier for israel now to have a normalized relationship with saudi arabia. they look at the example, the president of what happened with united arab emirates, the united arab emirates, was able to reconcile with iran at the same time that it entered into what became known as the abram accords. and have they now have a very deep relationship with israel. so there are some here that think the

israelis could do that. now that saturday, b a has quieted it's relationship with iran. it gives it a little bit more room to maneuver, perhaps even to formalize with israel. so there is some debate, but on the whole, the pro israel hawks here in washington and the by the administration are very concerned about this development for what it means for relations in the middle east . and especially for what it means for china's power on the world. stage so i'm coming back to where abraham was saying a few moments ago about it, iran's militia, would iran after this deal now fully expect to be brought in from the cold if you like, in, in its own backyard in, in this region. i said with malicious, we have yeah, many fighting invasion from the neighboring country

in russia was on the train. if russia should become them for attacking the train to see why that would be attacked and should be supported by the united states and so on. this as well. so the country, people in that country ask united and has tried to support the c manner that have a number of people that have that on foreign policy. government. not united militia proxy. people

who asked me to help them because of the difficulty, is that the okay, but they have said many times, but we don't want to negotiate this up. how did egypt have sense? i understand that the fact that they can manage to henry, saudi arabia has been deeply concerned about iran nuclear program. to what extent less normalization of ties have to address that. do you think with that, with the p 5 plus one talks appearing at least to be to be going nowhere for the moment. and given the fact that those talks didn't fully address the concerns of key countries in the middle east, saudi arabia and, and israel could, he rose nuclear program. now you think, be addressed with china taps as

a broker. and that the p 5 plus one tool to a dead. but china is very interested in doing so they've made that quite clear. and now they have proven that they have the diplomatic offices, the platform, the wherewithal to address important issues around the world. perhaps even iran's nuclear program, though i doubt that china will focus just on iran's nuclear program to single iran out in a negative bad way. i think they'll probably look at it more in terms of the context for security cooperation in the region. and perhaps china will use it's platform with the shanghai cooperation organization of which iran is now a full member. and saudi arabia has applied for membership. perhaps they will use that as a, as a more multilateral cooperative platform to address issues like that. but i think the other key issue involving saudi arabia, which is very, very important in the united states, is that saudi arabia is now focus less on iran's nuclear program. and more on it's

on what it has made clear is that it was the united states to give it the green light to give saudi arabia the green light to build out its nuclear program. and for it to have a full nuclear cycle with full enrichment, that would be a tremendous development that may not be so positive for the region and could potentially auger a new, a new kind of arms raised in the region and something that the u. s. administration is seriously considering it would be a dramatic change in policy. abraham about a minute and a half left of the program here, the one thing the steel does show us is that saudi arabia is determined to conduct of foreign policy, independent of the west. what, what are the implications of that? of all, i think we need to take into consideration that this policy became very clear with the democratic party in power, especially the by the administration and data frustration with dealing with by then

over the past year is the remember that by did was the vice president when in 2015, they was signed an agreement with iran and it's also data beyond the bus without consideration. so there is a long history over for installation, from saudi arabia with the biden administration and power for that reason, i think we ought to see about that. and now that we have saudi arabia is diversifying, it's now proposing get a itself to play a role. and maybe a think that conflict between now and you can and also. 3 it has not voted in favor of the was now we are in will apple ation with china? i think this is a pat. this is not just something that's going to disappear, even when, if, even if the by then administration just in the next election in 2024. and i think

that you should accommodate this in order. yeah. that that is no longer a i'm afraid we're going to have to leave it. we're out of time. many thanks to you all for being with us for what is already hillary man, leverett and abraham fry, have as always, thank you for watching. don't forget, you can see the program again at any time just by going to the web site with that. so i'll just hear a dot com for further discussion. you can join us on facebook page on facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. and of course, you can join the conversation on twitter or a j inside story for me, adrian, for the good of the team here. so thanks for watching. we'll see you like ah ah,

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