next few days, as while in central africa got a pretty intense band of rain over bungie, running the risk of seeing some flooding dark of the blue, the more intense the rain is falling. and to the south, we go maybe still a few more showers for cause lunar health providence at south africa on saturday. enjoy your weekend. we'll see you soon. take care. ah and by for a fraud takes on the big issues. this is not one of you talking about a systemic issue here. black labs don't really matter in the police. world unflinching questions is war with lawanda, imminent rigorous debate. people who are dying because of lack of medical treatment, challenging conventional wisdom. the fact that people are starting to get angry about this is in itself a sign of program. join me more from on hill for what al jazeera, the u. s. secretary of state has been visiting leisure, promising support and aid. what does it mean for the rivalry between world powers?

where does it leave the challenges facing the so how region this is inside story. ah hello and welcome to the show i am, sam is a than antony blinking has become the 1st sitting u. s. secretary of state to visit near the trip. part of president jo biden's pledge to engage more with the african continent. washington seizure, as it's closest ally in the region that is facing wide spread, political instability and violence. it's neighbors, molly and begin a fast. so i've had several military coups in the past 2 years. those states have also asked french troops to leave their territory, while u. s. personnel remained in asia. meanwhile,

russia through its wagner group mercenaries, and china have increased their influence in the region. antony blinkin says, washington wants to help niger. today, i announced her nearly a 150000000 dollars in new humanitarian assistance to help me needs and western central african, the sir health created by regional instability. that assistance will support through shelter, central health care, emergency food, safe drinking water, sanitation, hygiene services. and we'll also support ronald refugees and asylum seekers. evacuated in new jersey. and i have to say the generosity on the share of its people to so many refugees. so many displaced persons is remarkable. we're committed to continuing to invest in the resilience of democracies to a wide range of threats and challenges from corruption to this information. and we continue to support a free and independent press. as we have done in asia for decades,

people in asia face many challenges including poverty, security and the effects of climate change. most of the west african nation is in the sahara desert, which is being hit hard by severe weather systems. 4.3000000 people require human fat, humanitarian assistance. a 5th of a population of 26000000 don't have enough to wheat. new jaz struggling economy depends heavily on agriculture, which accounts for 40 percent of g d p. and the jeris faced the tax by armed groups, which of displaced hundreds of thousands of people. ah, let's bring our guests into a show now in the army. we have man, sally, a journalist and analyst in washington, d. c. daniel eyes and go research fellow at the african center for strategic studies at the national defense university. and in a boucher, kabir adam

a managing director at beacon, consulting and enterprise security risk management and intelligence solutions provider in nigeria and the sa hell region one. welcome to you all. so i could start with kabir, what do you think? prompted this visit by the u. s. secretary of state. thank you very much and nice to, to be here for the diplomatic relationship between the jar and the united states has been one. but it has been quite stable and given the statements by like agree, lincoln for he, i'm to 5, the different transition that took place in the jar in 2001. now to forgive because of that difficult transition can only be understood if one looks at the neighboring state to new job. places like molly chart as an example and, and more recently with where the seems like but thought the outcome

was built huge blues to democratic candidate within the country to, to that extent, nija, if the, you know, the concrete managed social economy can political challenges, kabir your firm on that who's in places like miley and so on. exactly as well as the is the ability to issue economy condition in those locations of given rise to so apart from the instability within governments of the state. the fact that the, the people i feel, you know, the president of government is not good at that should be in this case on the job. we haven't seen that level of harmony and out the grievances reach an extent weight threatened the ability of the government. second point is them of caught

the fact that needs are provided, quote unquote, safe haven or different security challenges that have affected residents of the hell. so from nigeria, where as an example is not, and you have a widget security challenge, a terrorism college. and that has made several people to move on to now find refuge in the job to molly and to what, you know, 1st of all of that, it's having an impact on the job. and so these are the kind of things that may have prompted. all right, let me just do that. and then if i could, if i could bring my mind into the discussion while the u. s. agenda for the secretary states visit includes aid it. surely the us interest go beyond simply the coming to the area because there is, there's a country that needs help with security, needs help with dealing with some of the issues that kabir mentioned, of displacement of paper, right? the u. s. has economic interests and security and military interests in this area

to that it's seeking by this visit related to distribute, you know, done tony like in the u. s. circulatory measure. public. i think such a visit has a double significance in which you know that the america, that you as is playing acute on, you know, in terms of defense and the security issues in the country measure. now it is an opportunity because it's the 1st time that nija receive at the very important from i beta car. and this particular times in this way it is. i think it operates unity for me, yet to discuss, walk in or that about or what is going fight. introduce him

fighting, but the 3 kidnapping, etc, etc. all right, let me bring in daniel, now, is there an element of competition between world powers going on here? as well, when you look at the backdrop of what happened in the last few months and years, france withdrawing from molly, ending operations are beginning fast. so, increasing military involvement by russia's wagner group in molly and accusations at the same, at least of that in the quino, fafsa is the us trying to play a bit of catch up here. well, thank you for the question and for the invitation today to speak with you. i think that is a little too superficial to frame. this is simply an effort to combat, you know, increasing chinese or russian influence. you know, the u. s. has been consistently engaged in africa and in this a hell in the share for decades. and it remains committed to building strategic partnerships on the continent. and i think new jersey has really emerged as

a very strong partner. that's particularly the case in terms of counter terrorism. as, as we've heard from the other panelists already, you know that the security situation in this a hell is really deteriorated, almost exponentially, around new share, or something like 40 percent of all violent activity for militant islam. groups in the entire continent of africa is taking place in this a hell, and that's largely been driven by the political instability and miss governance that has been occurring. and molly and burkina faso as we've already heard. and so i think the secretary blinking visit to new share is a, is a signal. it's saying that, you know, yes there's, there's been some pushback in places like malia and in burkina faso to a western intervention. but the united states is here to strengthen this partnership. it remains an ally and recognizes that in the share there continues to be trajectory toward democratization. despite these security pressures,

despite the humanitarian challenges, despite the socio economic challenges that need their faces, it has been able to maintain constitutional order. it's been able to promote citizen engagement in the political realm and civilian rule. it's been able to professionalize it's military in the context of this ongoing counterinsurgency campaign. and so i think that the united states is the united states as there to show that its foreign policy is a continued commitment to forming partnership, strengthening partnerships with african countries where it sees its interests and values are aligned. and i think that that's something that russia and china haven't been able to offer as consistently as the united states. and in fact, if you are to look at the, the involvement of the russian wagner group is mercenary par military unit. and

molly, it's quite clear that since wagner group has been engaged in molly, that the situation has gotten significantly worse. we estimate at the africa center for strategic studies that 4 out of every 5 people killed by the wagner group are actually molly and civilians. is really think it would hear from some of those countries. they would point to think back of us, of course, and say, just look at the outcome of the us military involvement in some parts of the world . iraq, of course, an invasion not backed by any un security council resolutions. how ended enough ghana, stan, that the u. s military roles sometimes doesn't end in an improvement of the security or democratic institution situation in a country either. sure, i think that that's, that's, it's fair to try and pose it. i like that. i think though that you're talking about apples and oranges. united states isn't intervening in the same kind of capacity and this to hell. in fact, it's, there is

a supporting partner to the new jerry and government and, and it's in that role that it's trying to in force or reinforce the counter insurgency efforts of new share. you know, political will and legitimate government or key ingredients to any effective counter insurgency campaign. and that's why that's why i think the new sharing government has been identified as such a crucial partner in the counter terrorism operations that are taking place in this a hell. i think that, you know, obviously there's still still some ingredients missing. you know, there's been a struggle to sustain a security presence in areas that have been retaken from milton as miss groups holding that territory and beginning to grow legitimate governance in those areas. providing services to civilians that are facing this threat as been a major challenge. and i think that's exactly what secretary blinking is there to try and figure out strategically with the new year and government. how can the

united states be a partner in that process in such a way that's effective? all right, let me bring can be a back into the discussion and asked this when we're talking now about the security challenges facing measure them multi are they, i mean, on the one hand, as the, the arm struggle going on with on groups. there's also the transition to democracy after the history of military rule, right? how key is u. s. support and the u. s. role for that sort of for those security challenges? i think a quite, quite critical one. what we've been already is massive us military support for several military base. and then also a grown base that is run by the u. s. all in the jar. and the provision of military equipment for the guttering of intelligence at well for

a pretty not good at the one of the key element when i think probably one of the best, not major more difficult to do the kind of critique relationship with us. and yeah, how i could be, i mean, jump in. and despite that we've seen violence increase in the share in 2022 is the increasing militarization of the approach towards dealing with some of these on groups. is it really working so, so we need to approach discipline to begin to know grievance if the internal extreme them and her or them within the job. and then the external one. if you look at the land 5 of major and it's very much part of the fact that those borders be shared with countries like libya and example. and then the other countries like guinea and money, where we are, we have the type of security challenges we've discussed earlier. good. the type of

border security management that is required. certainly one that is not in existence at the moment. and that type of strategic competition is not being ha, and this is why some of the criticisms that have been level again, would be us, as well as the media and government is that the relationship is not one of the strategic interest. but in the jaron strategic interest is not been projected and to that extent, a lot of questions are be much over the current status of the g 5 initiated but well at new jersey involvement in more modernized now, right joint talk for a 3, a major i now have him present to military information like the type of just mentioned. and certainly if i constantly been libya that i have also generated and created a security challenge. but the entire region

a did not being addressed. you know, to the extent that it would reduce absolutely, and supporters of russia and china are quite often quite quick to point out that comes as the result of western intervention there is they see that libya scenario i saw daniel put your hand up a moment ago i'm going to give you a chance to come back in on what they were saying. yes, and i just like to jump in on this point that the situation in here is deteriorated as you, as you said. it's it's, it's true that the situation in 2022 and ensure is, has deteriorated by, by our analysis that the african center for strategic studies. there's been a 43 percent increase in violence events attributed to militant as miss groups. but on the other hand, fatalities were cut in half and so the leaf ality of those events has diminished. and, and at the same time, if you look at the region as a whole, of roughly 90 percent of all violent events by north and as long as groups taking

place in burkina, faso and molly, so the proportion of violence that's happening in the share is diminishing so i think that i wanted to make these points because the new sharing government is doing a very good job. despite cascading threats and increasing pressure on it, security forces. and so it's, it's a bit unfair to frame it. as you know, all of these efforts are failing. you know, what we, what we are unable to measure is how bad the situation would be in the share if there were not the counter insurgency efforts taking place. and what we can look at hypothetically is if the situation were to be increasingly militarized, say, for example, like the way the molly and hunter has tried to pursue its 2021 in 2022 counterinsurgency with wagner backed mercenaries. then you can see that actually violence would get significantly worse. and here's where i think the new jury and government as really

stand out is a stand out. it's tried to work with a population centric approach to its counter insurgency, campaign building legitimacy with its government providing greater services to the communities that are faced under threat. and following up with some of these less militarized approaches. and after doing that, it can start to build support within the local communities and start to cut off revenue flows from milton. isn't this groups here? this is a, a step by step strategy for how to counter militant as most groups, and on average around the world in a counterinsurgency, it takes roughly 6 years for effective, legitimate governments to be successful in a counter insurgency campaign. and so i think we have to keep the sort of long term perspective here in view. then the new hearing government really has stepped up to that challenge. unfortunately, they can't control what the neighboring governments do, particularly when you have military that step in and topple their civilian governments. and so you've got 14,

a foster on molly that are destabilizing the situation for, for the larger region can be. or if i could not, this question, the country faces serious challenges as well when it comes to climate change. right? and 40 percent of the country's g d p comes from agriculture. how much real attention and focus it. our authorities even able to give the challenge of climate change that lead this are some of the criticisms that have been leveled against the visit by onto the blinking. and then of course, in the bilateral relationship between the jar and the u. s. for climate change, most of the country started receiving end of climate change, including the job and such engagement. $11.00 would've thought this is one of the element that would be the cost and perhaps the need to enhance the capacity of the

countries to manage the consequences of climate change. unfortunately, not much has been done in that regard. and it is a function of that, and then as well as the capacity of the institutions and government to appreciate the fact and the consequences of climate change and how that is tied into several challenges, including the security challenge that we're discussing as well as economy challenge with just talked about briefly if that is not brought to the forefront of conversations. and then thirdly, the kind of attention that you would get would be where it is at the moment. and that means there is no immediate for you, no innovation for introducing climate change. adaptation measures, and so it's not a lot of opportunity. well, that's if we can bring daniel and again, the u. s. has vital interest in this area beyond simply security, right?

yes, of course. as i, as i noted, you know, the united states has been a long time partner and new share and security right now is the most pressing concern. i thank you mean that's what we're hearing from my colleagues today. ready security is the most pressing challenge in the share. it affects all of these other challenges that we're raising. 2, you know, you can point to, to climate change climate change. you know, as it affects local communities, as it affects the dynamics between pastoralists and farmers. it contributes to growing tensions in inter communal violence and all of this can spill over into a security challenge. the same, the same is true for economics. if we're looking at the socio economic conditions in these year, they're very challenging as well. as you know, the, the allegation is kristen, is that the u. s. news your 1st came,

shall we say to the attention of the us public some 20 years ago. ready allegations about uranium, how much of a focus is there on vital economic interests for the u. s. from this region in terms of energy in terms of vital resources. you know, i'm not particularly aware of any american companies involved in the uranium sector and the share it is a major export of the country. surely, there are other sectors that have been developing in terms of, i think, petroleum there, you know, the west africa in general has significant gold deposits. and so certainly there are, you know, economic interests. i think that what we're seeing though, from the american side is a genuine interest and partnership. and this comes directly out of the african

leaders summit. and what the demand signals were from african governments towards american foreign policy. they wanted increased engagement at high levels like that of secretaries secretary state blinking. and so, you know, you could, if i can't speak to what the specific, you know, quantifiable interests are in the share for, for the united states. but i can speak to the fact that a stable west africa is writ large in the economic interests of the united states. and i think that new shares been identified as a crucial partner for stabilizing the region, particularly at this moment. it's something of a critical juncture for west africa in its fight against militant is this insecurity, this is bleeding into increased criminality. it's bleeding and to increased enter

communal conflict across the region. and we're starting to see some of west african coastal countries be affected by this violence. and so identifying these error as a, as a partner that's engaged in a stabilizing process, a democratization process, and effective counter insurgency campaigns, despite the enormous challenges that it's government or is facing, i think, is exactly what the united states is aiming to do with its foreign policy let me bring careering for, find the one that's got a growing population. kabir, how talking about stabilization? is the government in a race against time to try and meet the needs of a growing and young population not to provide that kind of stability that it seeks and definitely can suddenly that is a common trend that runs across most countries in this a hell include in new jersey, and i think that is one of the things that civil society organizations i wished

that had been at the forefront of conversation between the 2 countries under the auspices of the african good opportunity act. what kind of support measures would be put in place for new jo ann, it's them, you know, but in, in population to benefit from opportunities that on the book especially kayla with that would provide you to that thought me are the be recruited by some of the groups that are behind the security challenge of the new job. as long as that have not done, then suddenly it would look like the cycle of them in security training, but it's driving through to region. would also eventually probably affect new job, or i will leave without going to thank our guests so much for their contributions to the show, kabir daniel and my man. and thank you for watching. you can see the show again,

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