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tv   Counting the Cost  Al Jazeera  April 4, 2023 8:30am-9:01am AST

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massive number of individual perks it weighed over kilo almost 2 and a half pounds and a very low 45 minutes of talking. these days may about fence can stream films and capture professional quality photographs. clipper predicts the gadgets will play a role in transforming other sectors. the cellular industry is just learning how to do things like a revolutionary certification, revolutionized healthcare trades, the whole concept of collaboration. so this is just the beginning, but the evolution of the mobile phone industry is provide controversy. regulators are concerned about how tech companies use clients data that's gathered by tracking the activity that somehow, or governments through have to decide what is there about us that they have to protect. as an example, your medical information. the one should have that,
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except people that you want to have an attribute true with your financial information. we haven't figured out how to do all of those exhibit 50 s after the birth of the may about fan. governments now have to deal with the unforeseen challenges that it's created. but for many, it's a device they can't do without barbara and get her out to sarah. ah, this is al jazeera and these are the top stories. the sour donald trump has arrived in new york, where he will appear in court on tuesday. his being charged in connection with hush, money paid to adult film star stormy daniels during the 2016 presidential election campaign. when new york city mia, eric adams has warned trump supporters to be on their best behavior. a while there may be some rabble rousers fagin about coming to our city tomorrow. a message is
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clear and simple. control yourselves. new york city is our home matter. play ground for your misplaced anger. we are the safest large city in america because we respect the rule of law in new york city. russian investigators have detained a woman over the killing of prominent military blogger flood lind to tasks, and a blast of st. petersburg cafe on sunday. moscow has accused ukraine of orchestrating the bomb attack. at least one person has been killed and several others injured when a train derailed in the netherlands. the fire broke out and at least one of the carriages, the train had hit construction equipment on the track near a village between the hague and laden city. syrian state media say to civilians have been killed and israeli as strikes near damascus. several explosions were reported near the syrian capital on monday night. it's the latest in
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a series of attacks on government held territory in recent days. a fire has broken out at one of the biggest clothing markets and bangladesh as capital. no casualties have been reported and firefighters are still working to put out the flames and decor. about 8000 public sector doctors in malaysia who are on temporary contracts. a going on strike the 3 days that threatened mass resignation unless they're given the same benefits as permanent staff. well, those are the headlines. the news continues here on al jazeera, after counting the cost, which is coming up next 25 years after the good friday agreement ended decades of violence in northern ireland. u. s. president j fight ended to mount the anniversary with a visit to ireland. alton dara. examine the agreements legacy from the impact on people's everyday life to political power sharing installment and have rick stated foraging me realities.
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i and i'm the clark, this is counter that calls on al jazeera. we'll look at the world of business and economics this week. russia is increasingly turning to chime as you on as its foreign currency of choice. and moscow supports the use of the yawn in trade with other countries. could that threaten the u. s. dollar? also this way? ukraine winds a d i. m f, 's 1st loan to a country at war. why did the international monetary fund change its rules to lend the nation and what all the terms and conditions for keith? and the i m f has agreed to inject millions of dollars into sri lanka economy. is it enough to help the island nation rate in its debt? and can the government revive economic growth?
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ah, so since being shot out of much of the global financial system, russia has sought alternatives to soften the impact to western sanctions. is turned to china for an economic lifeline. and trade between the 2 countries hate a record of a 190000000000 dollars last year. much of those payments were made in chinese and russian currencies. the 2 biggest geopolitical rivals of the u. s. one to counterbalance the dominance of the dollar world wide. and russia is increasingly embracing the u on, even before the war, rushes central bank tried reducing the country's dependence on western currencies. but the invasion has further accelerated those efforts. in the 3rd quarter of 2022 foreign currency and the russian banking system fell to an all time low, 15 percent. and in the past year, the share of the dollar and the euro transactions on the russian market has
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declined. meanwhile, due on over took the us dollar as the most traded currency on the moscow exchange last month with the market share of close to 40 percent of trading volume or rushes president is making efforts to get other countries to pay for trade in chinese currency. after his meeting with the chinese president choosing pink in moscow more than a week ago for my pets and said, we support the use of chinese one in payments between russia and the countries of asia, africa, and latin america. the russian leader also expressed confidence that such forms of payments will be developed between russian partners and colleagues in 3rd countries . the meeting between she and putin was meant to cement that no limits partnership which was announced last year. and the 2 leaders have agreed to expand the economic ties. china is already a major bar, discounted russian oil and gas. it's imports of russian coal such 20 percent more than 68000000 tons. russia has also been ramping up in ports of chinese goods,
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including machinery, electronics, base, metal vehicles, ships and aircraft. well, the u. s. dollar has dominated global trade and capital flows for decades. but it share and global central bank reserves. it's dropped to less than 60 percent from roughly 70 percent 20 years ago. the euro share has gone up slightly since it's launch more than 2 decades ago, from 18 percent to just under 20 percent. and while the u on is being widely used, it constitutes less than 3 percent of global currency reserves. and china attempts to expand the currencies international role. hands face ro, blogs will dig more into that with, i guess. now, joining us from london is maximilian has to is a fellow at the foreign policy research institute and political risk consultant max, welcome to the program. first up in your view, how significant is this shift this russian adoption of the one? thank you for having me. i think the russians adoption of the one is not really
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a story about the one strength and certainly not a story about the one replacing or immediately challenging the dollar is the key global reserve and more importantly, global trade currency. this is a story about russia's weakness and the fact that russia has huge issues trading the dollar. what the western sanctions regime mean? is there any hard currency that crosses border, physically or additionally, with russia automatically has discount to that currency abroad? how large that is, the key effort and sanctions authorities in russia tries to resistance. but because of that, russia has shifted to trading in the one. but even then, it's still not quite as much of a share brushing exports as dollar trade is still today for 14 months on from the beginning of the state or right. and what are the risks associated with it, especially bear in mind and you know, china's propensity to sudden evaluations. certainly that is one risk. the other issue is that there are still capital controls in china and how freely russia can
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move change. you want to go into other currencies and shout as well. we saw this actually in the aftermath of putin and she is summit in moscow last week. the kremlin, formally requested that sharon hughes, its restrictions on renew, be trading and exchange ability so that it could denominate barb its trade with africa in the currency and beijing. so far has just not. ready request and how wide spread is if you wanna use within russia, russian people and businesses encouraged to use well. and so last february was very rarely use the russian central bank to ship some of its holdings over the preceding 8 years since the 1st invented ukraine in 2014 and you on. but it hadn't really been a major instrument of trade savings or credit financing. now, so the russians open up some savings products in the u on we've seen trade, obviously with china, with some other countries increased pretty substantially. but for me,
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which really isn't china still hasn't oper, rush a long term financing, even with the one. so the credit market there is still really incredibly underdeveloped and tiny iota, what the dollar credit market once was the max you were talking about the increase the crane war and what's happened with the sanctions and so forth. and in making this happen, to what degree will this, this pivot and make a difference to the russian economy? well, you know, i think it really puts russia in a position where it is dependent on china or tray. russia actually runs a train or bus with china on like, you know, western countries. but the way to think about this in my view is not really from a position of strength. but really that china is happy to say, well, we'll take as many russian commodities, some of which we now get a discount as a result of sanctions on the oil, in particular, of the discounts are in this grade, is there are russian seaborne trade oil for the rest of that comes in, so russia's essentially become
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a commodity supplier state to china. chinese exports, you know, to russia have increased somewhat. but the key thing is that the regime was particularly material defense supplies and bands technology has not yet been forthcoming. so, you know, i think it's really representative of the balance of power in that relationship. and what about putin encouraging other countries in asia and africa and latin america to use a good one? well, couldn't, has actually criticized because the dollar system for the last 20 years and what is known as the exorbitant privilege of the us dollars. additionally, its ability to borrow and deficits, but a geopolitical basis also gives us significant political strength through the extra territory out of sanctions regime and long as check against this and wants to push to have a move away from it. but the rule is not really a currency that is attractive for anyone to serve as an alternative. so he's
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willing to promote the chinese one. but this is rhetoric we've heard for 20 years. and as you mentioned in the beginning, although the dollar share global reserves is down a little bit over the last 20 years, it's actually come back up a little bit in the last few years is still by far the key trade currency. and i am very much of the new, the dollar has money is not under immediate threat. you know, we found ourselves in an economic war between the western russia and the west weapon read through the dollar system. there is far larger, far more powerful and makes that an unbalanced conflict and naturally shapes against that because he wants to take on that order as part of this conflict in the dollar, not under immediate threat to say, but perhaps down the line of the storm clouds well, i think that, you know, china as it's 20 or 30 year plan to really replace the dollar, or at least to put china as the key note in the global, international economic order. you know, what's very interesting is, you know,
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from my view, i'm very much a russian specialist background. russia has long chance to get these things. but the u. s. largely has been unaware of some of the geopolitical strengths of the dollar and the history of how it came to be. so powerful is really a series of u. s. policy mistakes and inadvertently, facts west china seems to have a very coordinated and driven long term strategy. so i don't want to say that is not a risk, but i think, you know, for china, a long term effort. and my view is one of the issues with this, you know, russian, chinese and balance and why we haven't seen the credit aspect to it so far because that's what most strictly sanctioned by the west is the for now china. so she's russia's efforts as more of a threat to its agenda that does an opportunity to advance that may change at some point. i think that's a key question around the economic aspects of this global conflict. but for now, i think you're trying to strategy really is not one of the race in russia,
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as apartment there and more be hesitant because it has this much more long term strategy. and it's happy with the order. it just wants to be number one, whereas russia effectively wants to undermine it, are right. and as far as china is concerned, just to wrap it up and long term strategy for sure. but what kind of road blocks are in the way of it? expanding its currency, well, you know, the check capital controls that are still in place on chinese. you want to really by far the key one until that happens. ready chinese currency won't be seen as a means of savings and assets and internationally, or is trade because people want to get caught in that, you know, despite there being some talk elsewhere in recent years, we see this every time this, you know, political crisis at the end of the dollar system, you know, they're still very few people internationally are willing to get paid in you on. whereas u. s. dollar bills are usually accepted pretty much everywhere you from a fish market in russia to know trainers in hong kong,
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regardless of the level of geopolitical tensions. max, just great to get your perspective, appreciate that. thanks a lot. thank you for having me. ah, well, russia pivots the china, you create appeal for international a to keep the country running. the economy shrank by around 3rd last year. it's budget deficit has risen to $38000000000.00 and to rebuild the water nation. well, that would cost billions of dollars or, but as estimated less than half of the money pledged by the west has reach keith, the nation is now set to receive a loan from the international monetary fund. and that is a 1st for country war. the m f is agreed on a $15600000000.00 funding package to ukraine. it's expected to be approved in the coming weeks. the 4 year funding deal is also one of the largest financial packages . keith has received since that russia's invasion last year. it will help you crane close its massive budget deficit and support his bid for european union membership
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. let's take this on joining us for stock. i'm is toby on becca. he's the director of the stock. i'm institute of transition economics. also a board member of the key school of economics toby and welcome to the show at so the have has not granted loans to countries at war in its entire history. why does it change the rules now? do you think? i think these are extraordinary circumstances. that's the very short answer to this . if we remember the math, what's that up fast to the 2nd world war when we had all the difficulties in the war world back then? and this now is the 1st large scale war in europe, with the aggressions from russia. to your credit and so you know, these are extraordinary circumstances and i think we have to look at it from, from this perspective. shaw, that's why this particular war i'm in the boys. unfortunately, over the years and i said, why wouldn't they support those to those countries to yeah, i think, yeah,
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i think there are different aspects of this. of course, one is of course that the math is political institution. in some ways we have member countries that need to think about how they want to support countries that have difficulties. and one important thing region here is of course, that ukraine has very strong and powerful friends at the board of the mass to control so large share of devoting of the i m f. board of course like to country your opinion in the u. s. department countries that have support, did you create now over this last year or so? so this figure of $15600000000.00. how will it be distributed and how would it be managed? would it be all for the rebuild? now? i mean, there are different phases of this program. the 1st one is of course, to make sure that the country can deal with its economy, challenges in the short run, you know, plugging the hole in the budget that you mention,
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and making sure that ukraine does not need to print money itself to finance its big deficits of this is more in the short run that step illustration of the macroeconomic situation and then going forward. it will also be part of the reconstruction process, but we're not there yet. as you know. yeah, i mean, while the war goes on is just like trying to stem a flooding. dam is ultimately the country needs the war to end to rebuild its economy. yeah, absolutely. and it needs the continued support of countries from the european union and from the us, canada, japan, et cetera. and what about the conditions of this funding? tell us about those? well, i mean, all of the i m f programs have the idea that countries have to just policy today will be able to repay the, the m f at some future date. and there's always this idea that money should be spent in a way that supports sustainable growth and all sorts of other different dimensions
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of the economy. and this is no exception in that. so, you know, there will be discussions about, besides so budget deficits, how you run monetary policy and then also institutional reform sling to independence. so central bank, legal system, etc, which is, you know, standard things in the math program, right? a standard, but there's not a standard situation. ukraine as a country, it was kind of on a commitments when it's at war in this way. well, i mean there's much more uncertainty to this program than standard i m f programs of course. but i think if we connect back to the idea that this is based on the fact that the import, the powers that are part of the i, m f is actually agreeing to this program. i also think of this as a signal that they will commit their own funding and help and assistance in different ways to make sure this is a sustainable lie enough program. so basically what, what this means is that,
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i think this is a signal that the e u, the u. s. and other parts of ukraine are serious about their commitment to, to help you to create for as long as it takes, basically you say, how lot of money that's that should have gone to the crating government that has not reached the projects it, it was meant to go to lot of corruption. how do we, how we sure that that won't happen here and how should that be fought? there has been a lot of progress, of course, in terms of dealing with corruption, a lot of the different parts of ukrainians, society and external partners have a lot of focus on corruption, of course, as we know. and this is one of the reasons that the 3 sent the scandals with corruption has come to the surface site. in some ways, this is a pretty good sign that now people and institutions take this very seriously in ukraine. it doesn't mean that it goes away overnight, but it will continue to be one of the top priorities to monitor and make sure that
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money is not going away in this way in the future. of course, a final question to you beyond going forward, do you think ukraine will get as much funding for reconstruction and recovery as it did to trying assistance, war time economy? well, i think it's going to need even more support in the future of course. but there, it's also the issue of rush up, paying reparations for the damages has done to ukraine. most of us have been discussed, pass about 300000000000 or so of russian assets are frozen in western institutions . so you know that it's also going to be part of the discussion when it comes to funding the reconstruction of ukraine. but then of course, is going to also need private sector investments bilateral donors and everyone else to help out with the reconstruction in the future. to be on back, i'd great to get your analysis. thanks very much need. thank you.
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queues for fuel and now a thing of the past, food shortages, reduced and cooking gas available to gain shoreline cars, worst economic crisis in decades is showing signs of improvement. but the island nation is struggling to find the funds to important necessities repay more than $6000000000.00 every year until 2029. the government has secured a net $3000000000.00 bailout for the international monetary fund. the loan comes nearly a year after tough to go see asians between the i m f. sure lanka and its creditors . china has agreed to supports relying cars, debt restructuring, which was crucial to secure the package that followed. similar arrangements by other creditors, including india and japan. government is also imposed unpopular measures to meet the i m. s. requirements including raising taxes, utility prices and cutting subsidies on fuel and electricity. joining us from a colombo and sri lanka, cho, dumb singer. he's a product,
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head of macro economic and the magic research at frontier research. i welcome to the program. so this deal many $3000000000.00, but it enables another $7000000000.00. how useful is this going to be for sure lanka, and the deal. so in the money that comes in the money that comes in it. so right now it is not something that's going to be a game changer. why? he's a game changer and has a potential change. the future for sure lanka is that this is essentially the next spot in the already could all be restructuring of the country over the coming of the country. so this allows you to move forward on some further reform, the denali op neville development project. so the way back to, we know, finance on the if and move forward and also allows us to move forward with the restructuring. so starting that process is what this i have a program beginning and really crystallizes. and of course, the road ahead, but the long road is now able to stuff that we got in the back. so we should be looking more the medium to long term. as far as that's concerned,
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very much i the factors or the reforms needed. they can always ultimate as needed to take us to be given long term, really have to stop. now of course allows us to, of the growth is going to say because the conditions mean that you have to act now to have the load in the 1st place. so immediately will it help shore up the economy . so or the last that is 6 months or so, a lot of the arc shortages are in the country that started out. and that started primarily as a result of the economy contraction. the dampening done demand that has meant that some significant amount of those shortage is nothing to import the margin on that side. things are looking they don't already. this does allow us now to, for example, no reforms is required for the state or the rises reforms that are required on the energy for us to move forward with that. so this is very much a critical part of wallet, but it's important justifies the countries being through a lot of started as it is. it's just the way it goes with these kinds of deals that
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you have to go through. morals therapy become a country cope with that. what we see more protests, it's not packaging itself that required. just tell you about the fact that the re lock economy had taken to a very unsustainable level. and then from that point, if you recall that you need to get the typing up as you need to reverse some of those policies and modules taken on of a consumption driven based typing dose. that does impact by being said, it's a really, for one thing that she has done is high taxes, especially on the progressive and for high income under the board. it's about that and discussions on how in the future that might be changed. so they will be opposition, some of the form to specify those that are due at the but in terms of what directly effects exempt the majority of the country was the one thing that helps you the fact that there's actually a mini mom spend required. and i mean, program for social assess, the company is required to spend a percentage of gdp on socially. but of course,
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the one that really has to do with the fact that the subsidies, the tires have been made. that problem wasn't any other option. other than that because of the absolutely bad in the tooth. so we're dealing with that, the alternative grab much, but the fact that that is the case of the payments. so that's part of it remains recently, some prices have started to come down as currency started, just because students will go below prices come down and that's a hopefully, that kind of actually can help me to get some of the pain on the, especially on the work in the shop, do the need to drive up exports. how does the government plans do that so that, i mean, she got all those water to drive up expose and they have had different different strategy and different different plans for me. from my perspective, i think it's about getting any barriers all the way and creating an environment that is more conducive to expand for an export services. so that's what look like structure the form that would look like proving or getting rid of regulation over
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the nation. and allow for the current to reflect market conditions would also be part of the because economy has a tradition of digital last 1520 years because a controller which has served as a decent export. ready this overall cheating g could help create a better but only time that how much, how much you would have a business is it really suffered over the last few years, especially in the past year and the poor to will money be directed in that direction. especially on the i think and that said, i think like i said that either me most said required for those. and that is to do with the nominate. it will be terms mean that increases amount will be spent in the country. we are also seeing some of the factors that lead to the deepest contraction that are very long reversing the interest rates are starting to lock up . the currency also thing some sort of like i said, these factors just mean that we're directly does, for example, with,
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in due to the terms of the overall you can, we can bottom of the ruby does create a situation where a lot of the ground do feel less and less they more involved moving forward. how would you see i feel like as economy and the company as time as long as your longer can speak to this overall of the farm trajectory. i think that he's paused for a lot of optimism on it because having to stick to the requirement, is there little bit of the difficult part of the company as an addition in the sticking to these kinds of the fact that you like us talking this, this time from a very, very deep contraction that in order to go on to the financial aid to rebut got previous, he could reverse and made 2 years for the extra b. so now he supervised the me get to the next month or so. so hopefully that prevents the reversal on but on, on that basis i am optimistic but cost us up to speed on what the future of the
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country dumps again, thank you. so we have all show for this week. if you'd like to comment on anything you've seen, you can tweak me, clark, i'll just please use the hash tag a j c t c. i'll just drop it to the mail country costs out 0 dot net is our address . there's plenty more view online charges or a dot com, forward slash ctc. that'll take you straight to page, which is individual report makes an entire episode. so that's it for this edition of counting the cost on the clock and the whole team, thanks for joining us. the news on algebra coming ah ah and
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