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tv   Counting the Cost  Al Jazeera  April 8, 2023 12:30pm-1:01pm AST

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in an illegal weapons, but also gangs and organized crime groups who vented chile from venezuela and columbia. in the last 5 years, hundreds of thousands of undocumented migrants have entered this country, including 2 venezuelans, suspected of having killed as policeman. rightly or wrongly, more and more chileans are blaming some of them for importing crime to this country . here in the capital, some mares are even demanding that the government declare a state of emergency in their counties where nearly 40 percent of crimes are committed. starting monday, undocumented migrant suspected of committing the crime would be placed under preventive detention until their identity and innocence can be established. another unprecedented step to see in human al jazeera santiago. ah,
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so this is our dessert. these are the top stories in taiwan says more than 40 chinese planes and 8 warships across the taiwan strait. median life is part of 3 days of military drills that beijing announced after president citing when visited the united states in taipei president, sighing. when held another meeting with us, officials, the delegation from washington led by the chairman of the house, foreign affairs which he is there to discuss. weapons supplies, the funeral of pro russian military blogger, blood land tusky is underway in moscow. petoskey was killed in a bomb bloss at a cafe in saint petersburg last week. he was known for his vocal support of the war in ukraine 26 year old dart trip over has been arrested and charged with terrorist offences. dos of jibari has more now from moscow while we're at us, very well known cemetery, about 20 kilometers west of the center of the russian capital moscow. this is turn a sky at cemetery, where the 40 year old will be lay to rest shortly. you can see behind me, there is
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a number of mourners that have made their way in under very heavy security at the cemetery, took us quite a while to make our way in to the grounds of the cemetery. there are metal detectors in a heavy security presence of the police force checking every one when they come in and all their belongings, of course. and this is an event that people have gathered to, to pay their respects to loveland to tar ski. the democratic and republican leaders of the u. s. senate to issued a red joint statement called the on russia to release a wall street journal report, arrested last week. you are a citizen of an cosca which has pleaded not guilty to charges of espionage. you, as vice president is meant to democrats who are expelled from the tennessee house of representatives. they let a protest against gun control laws on to the floor of the house last week. in israel, one person has been killed, so at least 5 injured in the car, run me in television really. so the attacker was a palestinian is ready. the reuters news agency is reporting
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a delegation from saudi arabia is planning to visit yemen next week. the talk to room to negotiating a permanent seas for with who the rebels you know, instead of that line, small news coming up here on al jazeera right. after counting the cost left front bought the law a will. the law win with neither side, willing to negotiate is the ukraine war becoming a forever war? is america's global leadership, increasingly fragile. what will u. s. politics look like, as we had to the presidential election of 2024, the quizzical look us politics, the bottom line with a lot mccloud. this is counting the cost on al jazeera. im your look at the welding business and economics. this week. it was an unexpected move,
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a decision by opec plus to cut oil output cent price is higher. so why did the saudi lead group cut production? and how does that affect the fight against inflation? also this week the u. k. agrees to join the asia pacific trade block and the prime minister says the deal demonstrates the real economic benefits of britain's post wrecks it freedoms. but does it classify? carrillo needs more than 3 trillion dollars by 2030 to avoid the worst effects of climate change. but the continents received only a small fraction of the required financing. ah, so the saudi lead oil producing group had signaled it would hold oil supply steady to maintain a stable market. but in a surprise, move the opec class alliance, which includes russia, slashed output by more than 1000000 barrels a day. it's 2nd cut in more than 6 months. is fair. this could send oil prices back
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to $100.00 a barrel and may raise tensions between riyadh and the united states, which has cooled on the kingdom to pump more oil in a bid to tame inflation. who may consume shutting? has this report us president joe biden downplayed the impact when major all producing countries announce production cost. but it's rapid markets and send all prizes soaring all alliance. opec can its allies, including russia, known as opec plus account for about 40 percent of global crude output. it's a pretty big deal. i mean, they were picked plus, had been signaling previously and that's kind of the steady as she goes output strategy. but if you take a look at their market behavior in recent years and months, i mean, not so surprising, right? so oil had been showing weakness, it have been under $80.00 a barrel persistently,
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which is seems to be an informal floor now for, for the saudis. at least you see oil at or under that level, you have to figure that the, the saudis. busy or at least thinking about taking action. prizes have been volatile in the past year. on april, the 3rd brand crew traded close to $85.00 a barrel just weeks before it did to a 15 month low of $70.00 a barrel. and in early march 2022, after russia invaded ukraine, crude rocketed to more than $130.00 a barrel. unless one, the cuts will push our prices and make it more difficult to reduce the cost of living. anybody that's producing oil is going to benefit from this show oil producing countries, lots of spending going on in those countries. lots of lots more investment upstream in producing more oil, as well as, you know, social programs construction plans,
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you know, lots of infrastructure, spending, those countries. i suspect that's going to continue. and it's also going to push ya, you know, inflation in the rest of the world. the move comes as global economic growth flows . it's also likely to further race tension between saudi arabia and the u. s. which had all the producers to increase output to bring down prices, and the consumer sharif al jazeera for counting the cost. well, joining us now from edinburgh is toby and sold bets. he's a principal at me, the analyst at the risk intelligence company, various maple croft and toby on welcome to the program. it's not so much steady as she goes. why this move now? do you think? well, that's the, that's the $1000000.00 question right now. i think it's fair to say that the, the announcement, pretty much courts every one of got to some extent. i'm probably as a result of that, we've seen a fairly broad range of,
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of different explanations for the cause. some of them leaning more towards this being a political decision and then others leaning more towards just being market based. and i think when you look at it now in a couple of days and you know this, this definitely several layers to this cause. of course, the official line is that it was a precautionary measure aimed at stabilizing the markets. now, of course, or pick doesn't officially talk about prices, but at the same time, it's not really controversial to say that the prices that we saw earlier this month kind of moving down towards $70.00 per barrel, was a lot lower than, than what i would like and then you have another really interesting angle at the moment, which is once the saudi energy minister of jealousy of been some are sometimes referred to as a b. s has been talking about mar for some time. and that is that opec wants to keep oil market speculators on their toes. so part of this car was probably also intended to, to kind of send a shot across the bow to, to short sellers to read the short answer here is that it was probably
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a combination of trying to support prices. some concerns over demand and the global economy. and then also making sure that speculators as, as a b s put it quite funnily, what would the, i watching like hell. and then there's the all you in the summer saying that saudi is i like to study and full of $80.00 a barrel below, which it will never go now. yeah. so, i mean, i think when you look at most of the old price for cars, for this year, they have been kind of ranging between $80.00 and $100.00. and the thinking there is that, you know, as you say, you know, opec is trying to defend $80.00 per barrel. and then the other sort of, and i guess you have the united states in china trying to, to put a ceiling in not around a $100.00 per barrel. last year we saw the united states uses s p r strategic reserves reserve quite extensively, that probably prevented a major surgeon and price is beyond what we saw. and then again, china as well, has a very extensive s p r that it can use to kind of try and put a ceiling in just a counter. the 5th floor if you like, right. and for russia,
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for them, it is good news that the price is right. yeah, i think it's a so for all producing countries in high higher price, this is good up to a certain point. russia and opec has to be careful. of course they don't push price is so high that it starts to, to impact impact demand, a tense time for the global economy. and now for russia, there is obviously the, the element of the, of the g $7.00 price cap. but when you look at sort of the, the nitty, gritty of, of the global trade and, and the way that all trade works is really difficult to make that water tight. and to make sure that it works properly. it's very hard to say exactly how well the, the price cap has worked so far. so now the bottom line is still that, you know, higher prices. well, this is good for russia. and you know, price is always been a sensitive topic when it comes to politics. but it's, it's clearly even more sensitive now that you have, you know, the war and ukraine and the fact that, you know, increase revenue for russia,
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as you know, it's good for russia and then the russian war effort. so that part, explain why. well, prices become such a sensitive topic even more so than in the last 3 years. so what about the us side of things that you as president joe biden says? it's not as bad as we think the prices have shown up by what a sent, which is pretty hectic. yeah, i think the yes, reaction this time is really interesting. i think you can contrast it with last autumn. the last big overcoat which took place last october and the us came out very, very strongly than and threatening no consequences. and really trying to push it back against that cause. and what it actually happened was that it ended up being counter productive. and in the sense that the us reaction just drew more attention to the cart and probably amplify the impact of the car. so it looks like they've, they've learned their lesson from land from that time. so it's been more me to this time. the wind has said that, you know,
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they don't think this car is advisable right now, but they're still coordinating with opec. they apparently were given a heads up beforehand, you know, broadly speaking relations between saturday and yes, you are going through a difficult moments. but you know, both sides are trying to manage this and it looks like it's, it's been a lot better manage than last october when, when things are really kind of reaching a boiling point. but it's interesting is that because the u. s. is well to large consumer of oil, but also the world's largest producer kind of just stop producing more. well, i mean, the think that this is where it gets really complicated with different types of true grades going to different refineries. you know, the oil comes from, from your sales sector, which has accounted for the big surgeon in us all production of a particular grade, generally speaking. so there is still very much a global market and, and what happens in the rest of the world definitely impacts prices. at the pump in the united states, again, you know, the strategic petroleum reserve is something that
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u. s. has used effective in the past, but when it comes to refilling that, you know, some of those volumes has to come from oil that isn't from the united states. so it's, it's, it's, it's not a local market is very much a global market, so that, that is why it's, it's difficult for united states to kind of push back against these, these cards, you know, especially because they, they make massive releases last year. now the biggest release ever so you know, they need to keep some of their powder dry. they don't want to do a drain the reserve to march. so it's looking a bit more difficult for them to, to counter opec this year. but, you know, we have to remember china's role here as well in china can also use it's a strategic petroleum reserve to try and, and put a ceiling. and prices at the moment, you know, are sitting at around sort of $85.00 per barrel. so we're not anywhere near 100. yes. so i think just for now, you know, all of the main act as a kind of just watching to see what, what is going to happen next. but the try not to panic and trying to stay calm. and how will this affect the global economy in the fight to gaze inflation?
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yes, so as you said, they've already seen a bit of a spike in all prices, as in the futures market and in the short term. and you know, it's probably not something that is going to push oil prices outside of the range that most forecast expected for this year. but at the same time, if you do end up with brand crude, say i know 5 or $10.00 above where it would have been without this cut, then that's all. this is something that ultimately will be, you know, passed on to consumers, especially with transport costs. the good news, i suppose, is that, you know, they, the extreme gas prices that we saw last year, especially in europe as i started to come down somewhat. now, with this increase in oil prices, that's going to eat into that somewhat so, you know, even though the price isn't sort of searched massively yet, you know that the cost is still bad news for governments that are trying to bring inflation on the control, especially at a time when they are really concerned about growing social economic pressure and
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the potential for civil unrest as well. toby and all that great. your analysis. thank you. thank you. ah, law, many british businesses complain the britons departure from the european union has increased their costs and heard exports and imports. and the office for budget responsibility expects the exit from the e. u to reduce the you case output by 4 percent over 15 years. but breaks it supports a say the nation could capitalize on joining trade blocks with fast growing economies than those closer to home. the u. k. just joined a trade patch with 11 asian pacific nations, its biggest trade deal since breaks it. while the comprehensive and progressive agreement for trans pacific partnership or c, p t, p. p, was established in 2018. it includes australia, brunei, canada, chilly, japan,
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malaysia, mexico, ye zealand, peru, singapore, and vietnam. membership of the c, p t. p. p loosens restrictions on trade between members and reduces tariffs on goods. more than 99 percent of u. k. exports to the 11 other countries will now be eligible for tariff free trade . the deal also aims to cut red tape for british businesses. firms are no longer required to set up offices, or be residents of the packs member countries to provide services there. the trade area covers a market of around $500000000.00 people and will be worth 15 percent of the world's income once united kingdom formerly joins. while the u. k has signed trade deals and agreements with more than 70 countries and one with the e. u. since his departure from the block in 2020, the terms of the majority of those agreements were rolled over from its previous membership of the e. u. the australia deal was the 1st trade agreement negotiated by the u. k. since
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breaks it, the u. s. is a significant trading partner accounting for at least 16 percent of total u. k. trade. but a free trade deal between the 2 nations has told. well, johnny is now from london, is vicki price, who is the chief economic advisor at the center for economics and business research . vicki, welcome. by its own reckoning, the u. k. government estimates this will increase economic outputs by less than 0 point one percent. so really just how significant is this? i think the significance is mainly not highlighting the fact that the u. k wants to be a little play or rather necessarily the impact you may have on g d p, and hopes that that will lead to maybe more tre deals with more countries, possibly even joining. there's partnership, i'm their suggestion, the south korea, maybe china. my do so as well that of course, you know, expand the reach if you like, but the u. k. has been trying to find new areas to trade with the realities
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that of those 11 countries right now in this partnership, 9 countries already have agreements with the u. k. some of them had been rolled over and after we left the you so they were the result of breaks it. so we tried to do more or less. was there in terms of agreement within the you of those countries . but there are only 2 countries that we haven't made any agreements with so far on the trade front and those on malaysia in brunei. so that's probably why the gains and g d p are small, but they have been no deals that we have signed will recently. in addition to the 69 that we've rolled over so. so there is a lot of activity going on to just a guess. you know, the, the world to believe that this is global britain, but of course the loss of the trade or some of the you trade is much more
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significant in terms of its impact on g d p. what tell us a little bit more about that, about how much trade is being lost and how much further the guy has to go to try and replace it there. is it also disagreement as to what actually happened so far? because, you know, depending on the analysis of you do, there is confusion in relation to the impact of coverage. there's also course, you know, the impact of the war in ukraine and all that has messed the figures up a little bit if you like. but there is no doubt thinking anything you look at if you ask companies. and if you look at the trade with europe, and if you look what's happened, since the cobra restrictions were lifted, the u. k. has been facing more costs in terms of trade with the u has been reducing this trade with europe more generally and hasn't been able to pick up in terms of the potential trade. it does like other countries have done since the, the reduction in loss of coverage restrictions. so that suggests that breaks it has
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had an impact. and the loss of trade with the u, which has remained of course, our main trading partner is going to have more permanent or impact on the u. k. economy, which loads and loads of export as are already complaining about. and also of course on the input side for just about to final introduce more restrictions of the border. so that's going to complicate matters even more. as far as this deal is concerned. who gains who loses? small firms particularly lose? i think this is one of the problems you can sell very easily to region near you. you can't really sell that easily. 2 places that are far away, the costs are quite significant. so big a firms would be able to perhaps benefit wolf from any deal that we do with countries in the asia pacific region. but the truth is, of course,
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that if you look at the deals that have been done so far, such as, for example, the new ones will show alia and new zealand. and also what may be the case for some of those countries that we may be joining in this new agreement that we're going to have the progression agreement for trans pacific publishing that my join is concerned. agriculture in particular, is going to be an area that would be hitting the u. k because it looks like some of those deals that we've done so far. give more benefit to the countries that we've done the deals with in terms of accessing our market in food products that we getting in return. so that needs to be sorted out because we do know that our farmers have been worried and complaining about this. so one would imagine that that would be taken notice of in whatever happens next and environmentally. what about you case? the you case climate commitments? are they say that this will encourage deforestation? why is that?
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well, i mean to the worries that if we are likely to be importing more products from places where you know, some of those environmental issues are not that you know, seriously taken then that's going to have an impact. but it's interesting what may be happening in the u. k, because i what we have been seeing is a shift away from producing our own products to really being much more concerned about the environment. and therefore, encouraging farmers not to plan to kara jane, re frustration if you like, a rewinding in the u. k. countryside with the war and ukraine, particular and with serious concerns about food security. what we might be seeing in the short term is a reversal of that and a lot more emphasis on producing our own good. so it would be interesting to see how those trade deals fit in with that new environment. and i think this chopping and changing perhaps policies is not going to be good for long term sustainability
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if you like. the resilience of a family sector in the you k, vicky price. thank you. you now from devastating site cleansing floods to unrelenting drought. african countries are suffering the worse consequences of climate change despite contributing less than 4 percent of global carbon emissions . and their estimated to pay up to 9 percent of their budget to respond to the extreme weather events. yet a new report by the climate policy initiative, the says the continents only received the 10th of the annual climate finance. it needs in 2020, that's nearly $30000000000.00 out of more than $277000000000.00 required annually to meet its climate goals. by 2030 or us vice president carmel harris announced more than $7000000000.00 in private sector funding to help africa combat and adapt to climate change. the announcement came after her week long trip to garner turns in here in zambia. last month's rich nations who failed to keep
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a 100000000000 dollar a year, pledge to developing nations to help them make the shift to renewable energy and bolster their infrastructure against extreme weather. well, johnny is now from boston, is selling? fuck, yeah. who is executive director of the african climate foundation and board member of the atlantic special economic as selim, if i can. thanks for joining us here on county the coast. first up, $7000000000.00. betty touched the sides of what's required. it's clear that we need a lot more funding to deal with the climate crisis and i think there are 2 levels. one is definitely dealing with the consequences of extreme with climate. wonder ability and risks. and the other is also trying to solve loads challenges around bringing down the emission levels on the content in itself. as you know,
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the statistics are really good. there's currently climate damages in a much more launch a song than what you propose as possible solutions to dealing with a crisis. so we would need to mobilize far more from global financial system . why is private funding private sector funding in africa than anywhere else of the world is concentrated in the $45.00 countries, particularly in south africa as being mature market developed market. the risk profile of some of these countries seem to be lower. but in general, the rest of the continent is due to the iris continent. but the irony of african countries that borrow tend to honor the debt to much better than many other countries. but yet there are
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a cost of debt at much higher cost. and so there is a risk perception that needs to be dealt with. and it could be multiple reasons for that is one of the barriers that seem to increase privacy. and there are 2 levels. one is around the, the slop supply printable. and so the private sector language is for the risk and the other is also being able to match that with the ability to attract the mobile phones right onto the, into the continent issue that could be dealt with, of course, with the concepts of, of the debt for climate swap, it was where debt is reduced. for green investment, some it's got traction. do you think? so what do you find the given the post covered face that there's been a lot of distress, particularly for countries like a bird. as you might have noted, to use government as the taking original
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converted that into a nation that was small and said to the government, we would for those certain amount of service costs a year for you to commit to dealing with the climate issues and many other ecological issues and so that's an interesting model, although every country can do just from the just swaps and it depends on how we be structured capacities to put it together. and there's also the ability to monitor and ensure that you know, full for some form of forgiveness ability of the state to implement on the nature swap. the bottom line is an interesting one. initially modeling. do you at the bottom line, is that a developed nations have failed wastefully on this issue of financing,
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developing nations? is that down to individual leadership of the nations, or is it down to the big multilateral institutions like the i m f world bank? i think, as you know, there are different processes at the moment to evaluate these forms in international multi actual development system. the need to reform the finance architecture is discussions that happening in the world bank i m f and many other places is also the mechanic process that is going to happen in june. this is a recognition that we have to do a lot more to integrate the need for financial climate. this is one of the, the, the form would be to, to ensure that multinational development institutions can increase their ability to provide these kinds of fun. asulym forget, we appreciate that. thanks very much. and then we have, i'll show you that this week if you like to comment on anything you've seen,
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you can just tweak me at mit cock, i'll just please use the hash tag a j c t say all just drop as an e mail, counting the cost at al jazeera dot net is our address, but there's plenty more for you online at al dessert dot com slash t t c. and that will take you straight to our page, which is individual reports links, and indeed anti episodes you can catch up with that's it. for this edition accounting that cost, i'm nick clark from the whole team. thanks for joining us. the news on al jazeera is next. ah, ah. and i talked to al jazeera, we ask who is really fighting this war?
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