of congo, and we've got this slug of rain moving across southern mozambique. so some socket conditions for time. and we'll put you on tuesday with the height of 25 degrees. i'm out of town season. ah, the latest news, as it breaks over the years from has been the target of numerous lawsuits and criminal investigations. but this time is different with detailed coverage, although many countries are seeking to reduce the defenders. of course, we all know jennifer detroit, we continue to be in demand from around the world. it's an indication of how reliant benjamin netanyahu is on support in the fall, right. the plans were the so called national guard, have suddenly been a month he starts between saudi officials. any rainy and vacuum represents is in yemen, after hundreds of thousands killed in a humanitarian catastrophe. could this be the breakthrough to end years of war?

and what would a selman mean for the region? this is inside stored? ah. hello and welcome to the program. i'm fully bad people. it's been one of the worst conflicts since the 2nd world war. but negotiations in yemen are offering hope that lasting peace may be on the horizon. the war has global dimensions reaching from tehran to riyadh, from abu dhabi to washington. but it's the people of yemen who have lost the most victims of a conflict in one of the well spoiled nations, a war driven by some of the richest. we'll be talking about the prospects for peace with our guests in a few minutes. but 1st look at how we got here with this report from barbara copa.

the rival parties in yemen. lengthy war meeting in santa mediators from a man, a leading international efforts to break her a ceasefire between saudi arabia and who's the rebels. the head of the talks, the group outlined its conditions for peace. i live on a, i did a here at just demand, saw him stopping the aggression completely as lifting the blockade completely buying the salaries of all jamini employees from oil and gas, revenues, compensation and reconstruction. as well as the exit of foreign forces from yemen. why that are gonna be the conflict dates back to 2014, when the, who thes supported by iran captured the capital demanding a new government. a year later, a coalition led by saudi arabia and the united arab emirates, back the internationally recognized government. and lot to military campaign against the rebels. and i'm having a good marcella. all we want is to be brothers. united with our neighbors saw that

the held their interest and we have ours. and we live in peace. we don't want to world war destroys nationalism and now i'm going to love the owner. we hope and ask god that the saudis and hutus that satisfies the human people 1st because people are tired of the situation. and of promises and procrastination, novel in the fighting has taken its toll. hundreds of thousands of people have been killed and millions displaced. creating what the united nation describes as the world's biggest humanitarian crises. it estimates that 23000000 people urgently need assistance. the most vulnerable ever was affected. health care workers save millions of children are suffering from acute malnutrition and at risk of illness because they have no access to clean water and sanitation attacks and schools have interrupted education. the un says billions of dollars and needed to provide basic

services. the war has also come at a cost for the saudis and their allies, whose he drew and miss hall attacks, have targeted oil installations in the kingdom. and the united arab emirates. several rounds of peace talks deadlocked until the you and lead negotiations lead to a temporary cease fire last year. it's hope that current discussions which come just weeks after saudi arabia and iran agreed to normalize diplomatic relations, will finally bring an end to this long run in conflict. barbara and cooper al jazeera for inside story. now before we begin our discussion, let's take a look at the complicated balance of power in yemen. the presidential leadership council, which was formed last year, controls most of the south and is backed by saudi arabia, its internationally recognized government. the southern transitional council forces

supported by the u. e. have a presence in aiden, and other parts of the south with fighters stationed on the island of sir cora. the saudi u. e coalition is fighting the radiant back who fees, who have control the capital santa and most of northern yemen. since 2014 and al qaeda is active in several areas with its biggest influence in the northern hud remote province. ah. well as bringing our guests now for 2 days inside story in doha is abraham free heart associate professor in international conflict resolution at the doha institute for graduate studies, an author of iran in saudi arabia attaining the chaotic conflict in stockholm is our friend nasir non resident fellow at the ab center, washington dc, and especially on humanitarian and human rights issues in yemen. and in washington, d. c. treaty, parssi, executive vice president of the quincy institute for responsible state craft,

and american thinktank is also the author of losing an enemy, obama, iran, and the triumph of diplomacy. thank you all for joining us on inside story. it's great to have you with us abraham, let me start with you. they have been contacts between the warring sides before but how significant is this latest round of talks in santa are you hopeful that there could be a breakthrough to end to this conflict? thank you for having me as this is not the 1st time where the talks happened between saudi arabia and who is an even there where you know how this whole visit that somehow before but not to this level. i think this is the 1st time we're seeing a higher presentations on this level from saudi arabia accompanied by almighty mediators. and so this is and know that we're having, which is a good signal that's given us as 2nd. this comes like one month after the agreement signed between iran and saudi arabia,

in china with china mediation at which we predicted during that time a month ago in this shaw. and inside the story after the signing of the agreement, that the, that the agreement would lead to the attention reduction in that asian. because in that region has seen a civil proxy was supported by iraq and saudi arabia, in yemen, and on syria, iraq. and the agreement between iran and saudi arabia would reflect itself on the tension reduction in the region. we are, we have seen already the as how the attempt to invite the c w. m to the next. i'm out of the me think now we have a legacy. but he's on d. d positive says he said, but do you think it could lead to last and peace in yemen? we know that if this is a very likely to lead to attention reduction in that agent, but i do not think that we should over bill over optimistic that this is going to

solve all you have any problems. because the conflict in your mind has domestic factors in, in the m. m. it's not all of them in stock on made by or supported by your and i saw that a beer then are the mystic these as this them and is have to deal with this. but the us, you know, so there is an old man on the property was that we've seen in the past 5 years has excess of bated the domestic. busy factors between a manufacturer themselves, the hotel ok, refusing, getting so far, the other many political partners are excluded from the political process. so these with why, what is a yeah. it, i mean a lot. so i tend to, after we talk about the other acts actors in this conflict in a little while and the complicated aspect of that as well. but let me come to a traitor in washington dc and ask you your thoughts rita, he brain says,

let's not be over optimistic. what are your fantasy? think we are on the verge of a breakthrough here in this conflict? well, i certainly hope that we are on the verge of breakthrough. i think the caution that mr. brain put forward is very much warranted at the end of the day. any conflict originally was an internal civil war. unfortunately, they both have on saudi arabia and the you were, you exasperated the situation or more weapons into the conflict, made it much lawyer that located us, kill a majority of the people in the last year and it made it worse if the iranians in the saudis all outs, if they no longer compete with each other in yemen to that civil war, at a minimum, that element will be gone, but it will not automatically resolve the conflict in that itself. it will remain, the traditions will remain, but it will make it easier to resolve. one of the fact that is important to understand here, most civil war simply cannot drive on for more than

a year unless or an elements get involved. when foreign elements get involved or more weapons and resources into the conflict. that's when civil wars tend to go on for years and years and be more sustainable. so that would draw all of that. those resources and those weapons from you've on and saudi reagan hope. so from the u. e, i didn't, minimum will dry up some of that energy into that war and hopefully help bring it to an end. but it's not an automatic solution. all right, i, for let me come to you as a ya many. how whole, for, are you about any eventual end to this conflict? as a m, e, i really have mixed feelings. and also as a researcher, i see mix indications and conflicting indications that this is positive and might be negative at the same time. so as many i would say that i've been getting so many messages from relatives and family

members asking me, is this true? is it true like this shake of hands between the saudi ambassador via the duty officer and the shop? is that true or to fake news? or, and the question is, when will we see that and the edge of shaking hands between them, any of the shows and you have any leaders themselves, you know, 8 route 30 years of conflict have devastated the lives of millions of millions in yemen. the u. n. one estimated that the conflict had the best of nearly a quarter of a 1000000 people or the many. and i am an expert, i believe the desk to to be significantly higher. so that made really people inside the room. and really in this believe because of that, the huge key of death and pain and suffering not being able to

really believe that we are not in the road to peace been making. so i think, but as the researcher really, really concerned about having a giant piece at the expense of lasting, doable piece, which requires more work than what we're seeing today. all right. very interesting that you've talked about the handshake between the, who's the official and the saudi representative. and i'm going to come to you a branch and talk about the other actors as after i said, what about the many themselves. and they are other actors involved in this conflict, as we mentioned, the southern secessionist for one. how do they fit into this process? and can you have a settlement to this conflict without involving all these different active? no, i don't think so. i don't think we can talk about the cedar settlement of this conflict

without the involvement of all of our partners. and this is where the with this is when we're, when the problem started actually, or when, when the government in yemen, the central government in yemen, who labs with the beginning of this war and the whole, the war against the simple government, the whole, is excluded all other parties, so there are, for example, leaders of the slot party who are still interested by the hope is that with is the fuse, the power sharing arrangements. and in order to are sold with, with other problems. there are also that transitional council, the iraq in the, in the southern also part of human. that they're not part of any process that we are seeing today or what the current thoughts that we're seeing between. so the area and the hope is it's between, between the south this and that is, but that's not including the other partners, even the, even there are what's called the central government. the had the government that

used to be in power on the it's marginalized, it's not taking an active role in these negotiations. we are seeing. so there's an old man is meeting with that with as we go sharing white that the government, that the government that was in power before the war started. they're not part of these negotiations. so what about the, any iraqi zebra him? and what about the iraqis in all this? i mean, they were part of the, the saudi led coalition of course, but they seems to be tension between the iraqi and the saudis. and the iraqis, of course, we know back fight is one controller. so culture island, for example, are the mit on board with this process? well, as i am out, is there supporting get melisha and the south that is funded by the americans and supported by them. and it's not part of any political talks and they have their own security, their own director is that they're in control of this. so no,

that's sort of a challenge actually aware. and even if it's so between saudi arabia and the hope is, you still need to talk to them about this and then you just, you still need to talk to the other political partners. this law had the breakfast and the other, the other was. and it also talked to the hera in the back of your mind, which is, are all excluded from the from and it talks, let alone of course, i'll guy that's against everyone. that's not grant money, talks and represents image or security threats to the entirety of a treaty. your thoughts about this, the fact that you have various actors here which makes piece complicated, right? which makes reaching piece complicated, especially when also you have divisions within the so called saudi led coalition. how do you see that evolving and, and what do you think the calculus is in riyadh and to run right now? what's motivating this reconciliation festival between re add and tehran,

and also saudi arabia's desire to end its involvement in yemen. so on the 1st question of reconciliation inside a country, again, it's really important to recognize that this is unfortunately not the end of the conflict, hopefully will be end of the armed conflict is the one that is a student by sounds great and the wrong, but it is not an end of the conflict itself, it's going to be a very fun people to be able to get to a full reconciliation. but this is a 1st necessary step towards being able to start that process in regards to yvonne and saudi arabia. i think from the saudi perspective, it's quite clear. saudi arabia recognized as if this was a huge mistake. they cannot win this, that they have a lot of these. the bond is it only makes the security worse. and in order to achieve the 2030 version that the saudi conference has, he needs to reconcile with you on a, however much you may dislike the iranians and the iranian regime. and it's in many

ways in bold stuff for him to now make this shares from the volume perspective. the saudis have been tremendously problematic both because of oil policies, but also because of the iranian perception that iran international tv station, which is a completely saudi funded t v station, is a major force behind a protest. and the bond that has fueled instability in their view, and as a result the saudis, in the body is both to each other. they can really hurt each other. but that the, the value of that pain that they can effect on the other side is now essentially diminished. and as a result, they've all to, to turn this direction and make peace and reconcile. and again, i want to also emphasize, even though that iraqis in de moines is luisel rolon laid it round works. i think the chinese are absolutely instrumental to get this deal because of the fact that neither the saudis or the body is trust the other side. and neither the rock is naughty, oman eas,

could provide any type of mechanism that would guarantee the behavior and the adherence to any agreement, a reckless holes in, in, in yemen where they directly involved in this yemen process. i'm not talking about here, not talk about the reconciliation behind the in the chinese at the normal leverage on both sides. and as a result could ensure or at least provide some sort of assurance that they both will adhere to the agreement. and that agreement, as has been said on this still seems to also have been instrumental in order to be able to get this an extension of the truth that we're seeing in the, on the right now. all right, let me come to you now. i, for, as we said, it's a very complicated process, isn't it, given the different actors, whether external or internal involved looking at some of the demand. so these have made, you know that the, for foreign forces to leave yemen, for example, salaries to be paid. and so on, talk to us about the daily hardships, the amenities are experiencing right now and what an end to the conflict would mean

in the mediate. for them are they any signs already on the ground that things are getting better? so under the 8 through 2 years of conflict that there have been a wide range of human rights violations, violation of international human italian law, the unlawful, indiscriminate. and this could push that attacks on civilians and, and civilian infrastructures which really resulted in deepening the human terry and crisis of the human situation on the grounds where with no exaggeration, every house for any of them is a strong in economy clay because of the consequences of the conflict and the abuse abuses the white abuses by the wording parties. but i think it's very important to

say here that and the m and today there are so many warning parties not only the saudi lead question and the who c, i'm group. so the question is, when will we see peace talks between the other way and parties? and at this stage is so important to all on that with the article and the saudi arabia and the you a, by the way to insure it operation was to really and harm indian. and that happened during the, you know, they're, they're fighting. so just like accountability, i imagine exactly exactly, just because they are shaking hands today. it doesn't mean that there are millions of civilians that pay the price for their conflict. so i truly believe this is the top priority at this, this moment, and the road forward that millions of any amount of quoting for. and when we come

to, you know, in the next stages when the other going point is make peace, we will continue to call on goes a kind of a cause of integration and accountability. and just let our, let me just ask you just last point. i think it's important and not to be the same mistake of what happened right after they and, and surprising in 2011 where there was no transition of justice whatsoever. so now transitioning in that draw wore it to the so called last a piece without justice where just event trigger other conflicts. yeah, i was going to ask you offer up, you know what one phrase that we've heard recently a lot is that give, many's must work out a p. steel themselves. ah, the conditions on the ground. oh right for that to happen. and how do you make that happen given that even before 2011, there were tensions already. there was

a war and so on. how do you many's work out a p. steel themselves? absolutely like it shouldn't be. i am any decision by yemen, ease themselves. but the question now what, where is they in the government? and this talks between the who visits and saudi arabia, they seem to be not and presence, they were not kind of the nation and her mom. so this is, this is a failure to the concept that was, should be, am, any decision. and this is the indication why this is not going to be an abraham. let me come to you about that. it does look like the whole fees are in a stronger position today, even in this a negotiations and talks with the saudis. it seems like the saudis coming around more to the who these demands via, you know, than vice versa. yeah, i think the hoses will be involved in with the agree with if he stalks and

especially if it's successful, because i think what the hope is, have to give back to saudi arabia is security. but instead of for that hope is will be in charge because we are not discussing our arrangements after if the water stops. and after lifting the blue kid or with that with is will be open to power sharing. there isn't a lab. it doesn't, it doesn't look like it doesn't seem so there are no indicators to suggest that power sharing arrangement as possible. and also the hope is for all this long. and they had this all abuse of fighting. and not that they're just going to give it to that to their lives, to the slot part of the they are going if that was in there. so that area, they are going to sustain and we enforce their monopoly of power in santa

and other parts of human. we're in control of it. now the, so these are you saying that we're not likely to see you saying that we're not likely to see a centralized power sharing government jameson. now between that, the whole season and the government? well, if, if this, this piece dog succeed in reaching an agreement between the hours of the se, then piece in yemen becomes even more difficult if this agreement excludes all other you have any parties, especially who were in power in the transitional process before the order started in the all those who were in as part of the political process due in the national veiled process that started in 2011 after a minute of illusions if these boxes and it seems, they are excluded. they em, any government them up. they don't have a sip of the table, the other political partners, they don't have a seat in this negotiations, or if,

if this agreement is v excluding them, it will be left between the authors who are the most powerful and the other political partners who are much less for board, we'll then that who is then there is no incentive left for the hoses. oh, engage in see national dialogue and power sharing in the post. i agree, man. if this agreement position ok to let me come to you and ask you, where are the americans in all they say providing support to the saudi led coalition providing arms in the beginning of the war, even if president biden, it seems somewhat try to withdraw someone. it's backing to the saudi war effort. where does this leave washington? and can you still play a role in bringing the war to t m n at one end? well 1st of all, the u. s. c's, what it called offensive work, didn't see some of the other weapons to the saudis. so the presidents promise was a rather hollow one. it promised to end the war back in february,

2021. it seems as if that chinese may have played a bigger role and ending this ford in the united states. the united states as opposed to this, has been to support the saudis rather than to support a peace process. now there are arguments on the american side behind the scenes, the u. s. i have been putting more pressure on saudi arabia than necessarily has been reported. that may be true, but i think we have come to a realization. and the reason that when you want to and the conflicts and peacemaking national address or such an effort is no longer washing, maybe else. interesting indeed that these changing dynamics in the region african let me come to you and ask you, you know, a final question. i as a year many of course you've researched the human rights situation in the country that the humanitarian situation as well. but as a year many, what are your hopes today for your country and what would a final settlement? what would you like

a final settlement to look like to bring about p c m. and look last year at this time i was on inside story talking about a $300.00 attacks on civilians and saw the data. and so now, and even in some my to so you know, question and some of the detainees and the tax case, they were gone, gone down by the forces there. so this is just to tell you that we've come a long way. i know and has been tortured by this conflict, but i really hope to end this conflict once and for all and not to repeat it again. and that would require a lot of work and addressing the hard topics just as questions,

justice concerns. so we don't end up in another circle of this vicious cycle of violence and you know, i for, i thank you very much. thank you for that offer. nasa a brain free hot treat a party. thank you very much for joining us on this edition of inside story. and thank you for watching. you can always watch this program again any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com for further discussion. go to our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. and of course you can join the conversation on twitter. handle is at ha, inside story for me, for the back to go in the whole team here in doha. thanks for watching. bye for now . aah! along

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