on wednesday, ah, it's a $1000000000.00 money laundering operation for coal. marsha is bigger than the company with financial institutions, regulators and governments complicit low is offering with right of the strike in a 4 part series. alger 0 is investigative unit, goes under cover in southern africa, pittsburgh iga foodliner pacino's dylan. once it's recalling, it's perfectly brandon, good. pop 3 on archers, era. he stops between saudi officials. any rainy embankment represents this in yemen, after hundreds of thousands killed in a humanitarian catastrophe. could this be the break through 2 ends years of war, and what would a settlement mean for the region? this is inside stored? ah.

hello and welcome to the program. i'm fully battle. it's been one of the worst conflicts since the 2nd world war, but negotiations in yemen are offering hope that lasting peace may be on the horizon. the war has global dimensions reaching from tehran to riyadh, from abu dhabi to washington. but it's the people of yemen who have lost the most, their victims of a conflict in one of the well sport nations, a war driven by some of the richest. we'll be talking about the prospects for peace with our guests in a few minutes. but 1st, a look at how we got here with this report from barbara copa. the rival parties in the emmonds lengthy war meeting in santa mediators from amman, a leading international efforts to break her a ceasefire between saudi arabia and who the rebels. the head of the talks,

the group outlined its conditions for peace. i live in la jolla here at just a mom saw it and stopping the aggression completely as a lifting the blockade completely buying the salaries of all yamani employees from oil and gas revenues, compensation and reconstruction. as well as the exit of foreign forces from yemen, was it gonna be on the conflict dates back to 20? 14, when the, who thes supported by iran captured the capital demanding a new government. a year later, a coalition led by saudi arabia and the united arab emirates, back the internationally recognized government and the lot to military campaign against the rebels. and i'm having a good marcella. what all we want is to be brothers. united with our neighbors saw that the held their interest and we have ours, and we live in peace. we don't want to ward reward destroys nations. i'm gonna line

to her. and we hope an oscar that the saudis, and who tease that satisfies the human people. first, because people are tired of the situation and of promises and procrastination, novel, ebony, the fighting has taken its toll. hundreds of thousands of people have been killed and millions displaced. creating what the united nation describes as the world's biggest humanitarian crises. it estimates that 23000000 people urgently need assistance. the most vulnerable either was affected health care workers save millions of children as suffering from acute malnutrition and at risk of illness because they have no access to clean water and sanitation. attacks and schools have interrupted education, the un says billions of dollars and needed to provide basic services. the war has also come at a cost for the saudis and their allies who see drone and miss hall attacks. have

targeted oil installations in the kingdom and the united arab emirates several rounds of peace talks, stead locked until the you and lead negotiations lead to a temporary cease fire last year. it's hope that current discussions which come just weeks after saudi arabia and iran, agreed, normalized diplomatic relations will finally bring an end to this long run in conflict. barbara and gave her al jazeera for inside story. now before we begin our discussion, let's take a look at the complicated balance of power in yemen. the presidential leadership council, which was formed last year, controls most of the south, and it's backed by saudi arabia. it's the internationally recognized government. the southern transitional council forces supported by the u. e. have a presence in aiden, and other parts of the south with fighters stationed on the island of sir cora. the saudi u. e coalition is fighting the radiant back who fees,

who have control the capital santa and most of northern yemen. since 2014 and al qaeda is active in several areas with its biggest influence in the northern hud remote province. ah. well as bringing our guest now for today's inside story in doha is abraham free heart associate professor in international conflict resolution at the doha institute for graduate studies, an author of iran in saudi arabia, attaining the chaotic conflict in stockholm is our friend nasser, non resident fellow, at the arb center, washington d. c, and a specialist on humanitarian and human rights issues in yemen. and in washington, d. c. treaty, parssi, executive vice president of the quincy institute for responsible state craft, and american thinktank is also the author of losing an enemy. obama, iran and the triumph of diplomacy. thank you all for joining us on inside story. it's great to have you with us abraham. let me start with you. they have been

contacts between the warring sides before. but how significant is this latest round of talks in santa are you hopeful that there could be a breakthrough to end this conflict? thank you for having me a, this is not the 1st time where the talks happened between saudi arabia and who is an even there. so how this will visited some out before, but not to this level. i think this is the 1st time we're seeing a higher presentations on this level from saudi arabia accompanied by many mediators. and so this is know that we're having, which is a good signal that is given us as 2nd. this comes like one month after the agreement signed between iran and saudi arabia, in china with china mediation at which we predicted during that time a month ago in this shaw. and inside the story after the signing of the agreement,

that the, that the agreement would lead to the attention reduction in that asia. because in that region has seen a civil proxy was supported by it. right. and so that area in yemen and on syria, iraq and the agreement between iran and saudi arabia would reflect itself on the tension reduction in the region. we are, we have seen already the as how the attempt to invite the c w. m to the next. i'm out of the me think now we have a legacy but goodies on d. d positive says he said that you think it could lead to last and peace in yemen . we know that this is a very likely to lead to attention reduction in that agent. but i do not think that we should over bill over optimistic that this is going to solve all you have any problems. because the conflict in your mind has domestic factors in,

in the m. m. it's not all of them. it's not all made by or supported by your, i know, saudi arabia, there are domestic, this is this them and is have to deal with this. but the us, you know, so there is involvement on. busy proctor was that we've seen in the past 5 years has excess of bated the domestic. busy factors between a manufacturer themselves, the hotel refusing, getting so far, the other many political partners are excluded from the political process. so these with why, what is a yeah, it, i'm a lot. so i tend to actually talk about the other acts actors in this conflict in a little while and the complicated aspect of that as well. but let me come to a traitor in washington, d. c. and ask you your thoughts rita, he brain says, let's not be over optimistic. what are your fantasy? think we are on the verge of a breakthrough here in this conflict? well, i certainly hope that we are on the verge of breakthrough by i think the caution

that mr. brain put forward is very much warranted at the end of the day, the many conflict originally was an internal civil war. unfortunately, they both have on saudi arabia and the you were, you exasperated the situation or more weapons incident conflict made much lawyer that located us still a majority of the people in the last year and it made it worse if the iranians in the saudis all outs if they no longer compete with each other in yemen to that civil war, at a minimum, that element will be gone, but it will not automatically resolve the conflict in and of itself. it will remain, the traditions will remain, but it will make it easier to resolve is one of the fact that it's important to understand here. most civil war simply cannot drive on for more than a year unless or an elements get involved. when foreign elements get involved or more weapons and resources into the conflict, that's when civil wars tend to go on for years and years and be more sustainable.

so that would draw all of that. those resources and those weapons from javon and saudi arabia and hope. so from the u. e. i didn't. minimum will dry up some of that energy into that war and hopefully help bring it to an end, but it's not an automatic. so, all right, let me come to you as i am many. how hopeful are you about an eventual end to this conflict? as the, you know, many, i really have mixed feelings. and also as a researcher, i see mixed indications and conflicting indications that this is positive and might be negative at the same time. so as you know many, i would say that i've been getting so many messages from relatives and family members asking me, is this true? is it true? like the shake of hands between the saudi ambassador via

the duty officer and the shop? is that true or to fake news or? and the question is, when will we see that image of shaking hands between them, any of the shows and you have any leaders themselves, you know, 8 route 30 years of conflict have devastated the lives of millions of millions in yemen. the un once estimated that the conflict had the best of nearly a quarter of a 1000000 people, although many and i am an expert, i believe the debt to to be significantly higher. so that means really people, it's idea that really in disbelief because of that, the huge key of death and pain and suffering not being able to agree to believe that we are in the road to peace,

been making. so i think, but as a researcher really, really concerned about having a friend jaya piece at the expense of lasting, doable piece, which requires more work than what we're seeing today. all right. very interesting that you've talked about the handshake between the, who's the official and the saudi representative. and i'm going to come to you a branch and talk about the other actors as after i said, what about the many themselves. and they are other actors involved in this conflict . as we mentioned, the southern secessionist for one. how do they fit into this process? and can you have a settlement to this conflict without involving all these different actus? no, i don't think so. i don't think we can talk about or see the settlement of this conflict without the involvement of all of our partners. and this is where the with this is when we're, when the problem started actually at when,

when the government in yemen, the central government in yemen, who labs with the beginning of this war and the whole, the war against the simple government, the whole, is excluded all other partners, so there are, for example, leaders of the slot party who are still edited by the hope is that with is if use that power sharing arrangements in order to are sold with, with other problems. there are also that transitional council, the iraq in the, in the southern also part of human. that they're not part of any process that we are seeing today or what the current thoughts that we're seeing between. so the area and the hope is it's between, between the south this and that with this. but that's not including the other province. even the, even there are what's called the central government. the had the government that used to be in power did it's marginalized, it's not taking an active role in these negotiations. we are seeing. so this an oh

man is meeting with that with the see go sharing why the government that the government that was in power before the war started. they're not part of these negotiations. so what about any ratty zebra, him? and what about the any iraqis in all this? i mean, they were part of the, the saudi led coalition, of course. but there seems to be tensions between the iraqi and the saudis, and the m iraqis. of course we know back fight is wine controllers a quarter island, for example. are the mit is on board with this process? well, as i am an artist there supporting get melisha and the south that is funded by the americans and supported by them. and it's not part of any political talks, and they have their own security, their own or is that they're in control of the, of this. and so no, that sort of a challenge actually aware, even if it's so between saudi arabia and the hope is, you still need to talk to them about this and them, it is just, you still need to talk to the other political partners as law hand,

the boxes on the other, the other ones. and you need also to talk to the hera in the park of human, which is, are all excluded from a, from and it talks, let alone of course, i'll guy that's against everyone. that's not grant of any thoughts and represents image or security threat to the entirety of a treaty. your thoughts about this, the fact that you have various actors here which makes piece complicated, right? which makes reaching piece complicated, especially when also you have divisions within the so called saudi led coalition. how do you see that evolving and, and what do you think the calculus is in riyadh and to run right now? what's motivating this reconciliation festival between re add and t, ron and also saudi arabia's desire to end its involvement in yemen. so on the 1st question of reconciliation inside a country, again,

it's really important to recognize that this is unfortunately not the end of the conflict. hopefully will be end of the armed conflict. if the one that is a few by sounds really wrong, but it is not an end of the conflict itself, it's going to be a very fun people to be able to get to a full reconciliation. but this is a 1st necessary step towards being able to start that process in regards to yvonne in saudi arabia, i think from the saudi perspective, it's quite clear. saudi arabia recognized this if this was a huge mistake. they cannot win this, that they have a lot of on is it only makes out the security worse. and in order to achieve the 2030 version that the saudi conference has, he needs to reconcile with ivana. however much he made this like the iranians and the iranian regime. and it's in many ways of gold stuff for him to now make this shift from the volume perspective, the saudis have been tremendously problematic both because of oil policies,

but also because of the iranian perception that iran international tv station, which is a completely saudi funded t v station is a major force on the protest, and the bond that has fueled in stability in their view. and as a result, the saudis, in the bond is both moved to each other. they can really hurt each other. but the, the value of that pain that they can effect on the other side is now essentially diminished. and as a result, they've all to, to turn this direction and make peace and reconcile. and again, i want to also emphasize even though that iraqis in the mornings luisel rolon laid it round work. i think the chinese are absolutely instrumental to get it still because of the fact that neither the saudis know the body has trust the other side . and neither the rock is naughty amante's could provide any type of mechanism that would guarantee the behavior and adherence to any agreement, a reckless holes in, in, in yemen where they directly involved in this yemen process. i'm not talking about

here much about the reconciliation behind on in the chinese, at the nomic leverage on both sides. and as a result could ensure or at least provide some sort of assurance that they both will adhere to the agreement. and that agreement, as has been said on this still seems to also have been instrumental in order to be able to get this an extension of the tooth that we're seeing in younger right now. all right, let me come to you now. i, for, as we said, it's a very complicated process, isn't it? given the different actors, whether external or internal involved looking at some of the demands the whole fees have made. you know that the for foreign forces to leave yemen, for example, salaries to be paid and so on. talk to us about the daily ha ships, the amenities are experiencing right now and what an end to the conflict would mean in the mediate. for them are they any signs already on the ground that things are getting better?

so under the 8 through 30 years of conflict that there have been a wide range of human rights violations, violation of international human italian law, the unlawful, indiscriminate and disproportionate attacks on civilians and, and civilian infrastructures which really resulted in deepening the human terry and crisis of a human diane situation on the grounds where with no exaggeration, every house for any of them is struggling economy weekly. because of the consequences of the conflict and the abuse abuses the white abuses by the wording parties. but i think it's very important to say here that and yeah, and then today there are so many warning parties not only the saudi that question, and the who see i'm so the question is,

when will we see peace talks between the other way parties and at this stage is so important to all on that with the article and the saudi arabia and the you a, by the way to insure it operation was to really and harm indian. and that happened during the, you know, they're, they're fighting. so just accountability, i imagine exactly exactly, just because they are shaking hands today doesn't mean that there are millions of civilians that pay the price what they're conflict. so i truly believe this is the top priority at this that this moment and the road forward that millions of the amount of quoting for. and when we come to, you know, in the next stages when the other way and going to make peace, we will continue to call on those

a kind of corporation and accountability. and just let i, let me just ask you just last point. i think it's point to not to be the same mistake of what happened right after the humans uprising in 2011 where there was no transition of justice whatsoever. so now transitioning immigrant wore it to. ready the so called last a piece without justice where just event trigger other conflicts. yeah, i was going to ask you offer up, you know what one phrase that we've heard recently a lot is that jim many's must work out a piece deal themselves. ah, the conditions on the ground right for that to happen and how do you make that happen given that even before 2011, they were tensions already. there was a war and so on. how do you many's work out a p. steel themselves, but absolutely like it shouldn't be,

i am any decision by human needs themselves. but the question now what, where is they in any government? and this talks between the who visits and saudi arabia, they seem to be not and presence, they were not part of the nation and her mom. so this is, this is a failure to the cost of that was, should be, am and any decision. and this is the indication why this is not going to be abraham. let me come to you about that. it does look like the whole fees are in a stronger position to day, even in a negotiations and talks with the saudis. it seems like the saudis coming around more to the who these demands via, you know, than vice versa. yeah, i think the hoses will be involved in with the, agree with this, this piece talks. and especially if it's successful, because i think what the hope is, have to give back to saudi arabia is security. but instead of but for that hope is

will be in charge because we are not discussing polar arrangements after if the water stops. and after lifting the blue kid or with that with is will be open to power sharing. there isn't a lab. it doesn't, it doesn't look like it doesn't seem so there are no indicators to suggest that power sharing arrangement as possible. and also the hope is for all this long, and they had this all abuse of fighting. and not that they're just going to give it to that their lives to the slot part of the they are going if that war and then so that area, they are going to sustain and we enforce their monopoly of power in santa and other parts of human were in control of it. now the site is, are you saying that we're not likely to see you saying that we're not likely to see a centralized power sharing government,

james and i between that the whole season and the government. what if, if this, this be stalks succeed in reaching an agreement between the hours of the saudis, then peace in your man becomes even more difficult if this agreement excludes all other you have any parties, especially who were in power in the transitional process before the order started in the all those who were in as part of the political process due in the national veiled process that started in 2011 after a minute of allusions. if these sponsors and it seems, they are excluded, they em, any government, they're not, they don't have a sip of the table. the other political partners they don't ever see in this negotiations, or if, if this agreement is the excluding them, it will be left between the who is who are the most powerful and the other political partners who are much list for board will then that who is then there is

no incentive left for the hoses. oh engage in see national dialogue and power sharing in the post i agreement. if this agreement position ok to let me come to you and ask you where are the americans in all their say providers support to the saudi led coalition providing arms in the beginning of the war, even if president biden, it seems somewhat try to withdraw someone. it's backing to the saudi war effort. where does this leave washington? and can you still play a role in bringing the war to that, to your men at one end? well, 1st of all, the u. s. c's, what it called offensive, what they didn't see, some of the other weapons to the saudis. so the president promised was a rather hollow one. it promised to end the war back in february, 2021. it seems as if that chinese may have played a big role in ending this war in the united states. the united states as opposed to this, has been to support the saudis rather than to support

a peace process. now there are arguments on the american side behind the scenes, the u. s. side have been putting more pressure on saudi arabia than necessarily has been reported. that me too. but i think we have come to a realization. and the reason that when you want to and the conflicts and peacemaking national address or such an effort is no longer washing, maybe else. interesting indeed that these changing dynamics in the region african let me come to you and ask you, you know, a final question. i as a year many of course you've researched the human rights situation in the country that the humanitarian situation as well. but as a year many, what are your hopes today for your country and what would a final settlement? what would you like a final settlement to look like to bring about piece t m and look last year at this time i was on inside story talking about

a 300 think attacks on civilians and saw the data. and so now, and even in some minus out, you know, question and saw it's all that detail needs and the tax case, they were gone, gone down by the, the forces there. so this is just to tell you that we've come a long way. i know and has been tortured by this conflict, but i mean, i really hope to end this conflict once and for all and not to repeat it again. and that would require a lot of work and addressing the hard topics just as questions just as concerns. so we don't end up in another circle of this vicious cycle of items, you know,

i for, i thank you very much. thank you for that offer nasa a brain free hot treaty party. thank you very much for joining us on this edition of inside story. and thank you for watching. you can always watch this program again. any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com for further discussion. go to our facebook page at facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. and of course you can join the conversation on twitter handle is that a j inside story from me for the back to go in the whole team here in doha. thanks for watching. bye for now. ah

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