and to was good borne, joining up with the heavy showers that we have across the tropics, some more big down porcelain part. so if you gone to sing some raw, the live the showers longest spells of bright happy right to into tension in northern parts of mozambie. and grassy turning, wetter to south africa, ah, with inequality corruption, repression and rage to political. it just decided to cut to the piece of cake. i'm sure it won't be a joke. commentary explores the desperate stage of democracy in lebanon. ah, through the eyes of those who are losing hope, every day o dreams are becoming blue. democracy, maybe. democracy for sale on al jazeera, re sitting toys after years of animosity to kia and egypt are close to restoring

full diplomatic relations as their foreign ministers meet in ankara. what challenges do they face, and what does it all mean for the region? this is inside story. ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm tom a cry after years of hostility to key and egypt are rebuilding their ties. diplomatic relations plunged when egypt president overthrew democratically elected leader mohammed morsey. and 2013. to clear sense has hosted a number of muslim brotherhood figures who fled egypt. the egyptian government criticized that sang anchor was sheltering. what had called terrorists. the 2 countries have also been at odds on libya. an energy exploration in the east of the mediterranean le decade later, attempts to make their relationship could have widespread implications in the

region that could affect political links, presidential elections and economies. katia lopez, holy yarn, has more images. after a decade of political animosity to key and egypt showed their mending ties, a high level meeting like this one between their foreign minister as had long been considered near, impossible. yet it took place last month in cairo between egypt, summer sugary and his turkish counterpart may have looked, shall, will show glue. a shift from hostility to friendliness was 1st indicating when shockley visited areas in turkey, yet devastated by major earthquakes. it's all a far cry from 2013. that's when president abdel father c. c. letter crew against egypt. first, democratically elected president mohammed marci. he was backed by turkey year and president risa type air to one condemned. the move relations between the 2 nations

took a turn for the worse, especially after turkey, a provider refuge for egyptian dissidence. many of them leaders of the muslim brotherhood. hiero harvest members terrorists. he la concept in libya and caro back to the countries internationally recognized government. but cairo supports warlord calling for half dar and his forces in 2019 took. he assigned a maritime boundary agreement with libya and that further fuel disputes with egypt over energy exploration in the mediterranean sea. now, egypt meets help to support its economy and that something to a kia could provide in their to on is seeking international support ahead of a presidential election. and may there attempt to warn ties apparently sweeping years of differences and turning former rivals and to allies. katia lo fissile the yan for inside story ah

okay. will is bring in our guests. now, joining me in ankara is use of alabama and international security and politics expert and retired colonel and assemble helene, sorry, autumn, associate professor of international relations at assemble midden yet university and in washington dc. hello, our nanny, a senior fellow at arab center, washington d. c. a non profit organization dedicated to political and economic understanding of the arab world. a welcome to all of you. thank you very much for being on inside story today. helene, if i can begin with you early one once called c. c, a tyron, cc his id to kia has been protecting terrorists. i mean, both the still in charge of the respective countries. so what does change to get them to this point? well, we are, once again witnessing and others. chester, in the me, the least history. let's say because the, there's

a continued graph richmond between various countries. and so you see here, and this is something quite positive in turkish foreign policy as well, because we have only a small amount of time left to the general elections and presidential elections. and this kind of warm air has a power to affect foreign affairs as well as internal affairs. and i guess we should have a broader look to the approach more between turkey, egypt in the last couple of months. as we remember in the mid march, our foreign minister was show and went to the title to get closer with the interruption regime. but at the same time, we now have education, foreign minister in our kara, and in a broader perspective, i think this is the continuation of the approach one between 2 can gulf countries including united arab emirates and solve the r o b l,

as well as he's getting closer with is while it's patient in the last couple of months. let's say this is quite helpful for turkey side because especially in terms of the mediterranean energy security. so you need a such it moves to get closer to formal rivals and or enemies. let's say, because it's almost impossible for turkey in terms of turkish and gender traditional turkish to foreign policy as well to be as old. so it's so many countries at the same time. the reason we see a similar thing that church is getting closer with his ride, with even with greece in the last couple of months after the terrible earthquakes that hit turkey. so we are witnessing the officer of the earthquake. so this is a quick moment which makes the countries at least to repair their relations after

such terrible incident kellall. why now, why was this happening now? do you think? i think for different reasons, tom, some of them relate to the domestic affairs in each country, or some of them relate to the regional, repositioning, and shifts and the global issues as well. if we cover the 1st level of analysis, which is the mystic affairs, both countries are facing severe economic crises over the last couple of years. and you 2 different factors among them as the yoke of in 19 ramifications, as well as the russian war and cream. egypt has been facing this crisis over the last couple of years. and that is the valuation of the egyptian pound, as we know. and the president living of foreign debt as well as inflation, the same can be applied to ticket as well. so both countries is felt that this is the time or now is the time to amend the relation. the 2nd is the region that

shifts as the previous guests mentioned correctly. there are different changes and that is a fluid fluid. if liberty in that he to right now, different can tell you, trying to shift from the old or policies in order to repair the relations. we saw this particular into key to key is trying to adopt once again what's called 0 problems, a foreign policy, meaning trying to repair and min delicious was other countries. article is out that he, b a, u e, syria, israel, and now egypt, as well as if you look at the global changes right now, this competition between the u. s. and china, as well as the national claim, all the circumstances, both both countries to rethink and to re position themselves in order to get benefit, what from what's going on? so i think both realize that we should move a little bit from the past and try to open a new chapter and their debate at relations. what's the, what's very interesting from here. if you look at the bi lateral economic relations between both countries, it didn't,

it wasn't impacted by the political aperture. if you look at the for it, for example, the trade volume are increased the from $7000000000.20 colon 7. now it's $11000000000.00 if there was a factory volume and you can make the change between it and, and, and, and turkey, which is very significant with guns, though they cannot switching, both countries says the perfect storm bringing them back together at this point in time. use if i mean there are many issues that have divided the 2 countries over the last decade or so. i mean, what are the terms or preconditions of, of this reconciliation or is everything out for discussion at this point in time? do you think everything probably will be air going to be on the table because as the previous gas mansion that the changing conditions, especially in the vall, down in the area, i am forced these 2 countries to discuss on the table. but i do believe that they will put aside the problems that they cannot resolve and they will go further for

the issues that they can and move to have been position for. from my point of perspective, they will not discuss the issue about the missing brother food because turkey all this thought took the limit their media coverage, insight to care. but probably no one can pershay to care to accept the museum brotherhood, for example, as a terrorist or organization for that reason. everything will be on the table, but at the very end, they will put aside the problems that they cannot resolve and they will move forward with the issues that they can go forward. as a vin, menstruation kellall, you pretty much wrote the book on the muslim brotherhood almost literally. i mean, what sort of fallout will there be for them in this scenario? d. thank. i think the butter hood is already under pressure from what's happening

between 2 and 2 in egypt. what is that? what we should note that that the brotherhood has been intended for the last decade that a key provided them. a safe haven, many leaders and members. when they left fled the country 2015, the found that st. heaven and turkey. and he got many chances in order to wear change discussion, you get the failed miserably. they also are facing deep internal divisions which impacted their ability to bring about a change in egypt. so they got their chances. now turkey is looking issue as a liability and burden on that under foreign policy. that's why they got some measures over the last couple of ease in order to at least tensions not only with each but also with other regional forces who designated by the way that the organization including so that it be and you eat. so the impact of this approach, my between turkey and egypt is already significant. some of their lead does lift the country. some of them remain silent. and also turkey has shut down one of the

most important t v, so that i chose mccann moline. it has been shut down the last couple of years. so the ticket already took measures in order to call down potential of egypt, and i think the impact on the rental would be significant. however, when it comes to extradite things, some of the doors were allegedly ab but, but in violence, according to the government, i think this was going to happen until now to he didn't do this before. so i, i, that would, that turkey will accept the egyptian demand or questions about this issue, or which might be an issue for a divisions in the future if egypt asked and appreciated turkey in order to talk to the diet. some of the, those who are involved in violence, according to government taken might not allow this to happen. so this might happen back village in the future. your airline, has there been any reaction from the muslim brotherhood as you know,

to the foreign ministers are meeting for the 2nd time and, and is there a fear there that some may be extradited back to widget? there is such a possibility, but you know, we should underline something. i don't think the, the philosophy at least the back cross that the turkish government and the cape ha p ideology is feeling it. bob muslim, brought the food has changed. so it's there, it's feel strong sympathy for them, but at the same time there are other rules there on the conditions of quality that turkey has to follow with. well for that reason, as my colleague, so underlined, turkeys putting a kind of separation which stick between itself officially i'm the muslim brotherhood as a, as an organization. at the same time, i do agree that turkey will not be the claim. muslim brotherhood as a terrorist organization. in my case, i think this will never happen at what is i can see at the moment,

but for sure there should be some kind of concrete steps from the turkish side to persuade the egyptian side regarding a turkey limitations against a muslim rubber hose. i think the biggest problem or the potential problem is still lying there, which is libya. so it's not muslim brotherhood that it's time. it's libya, libya is there, it's very serious. as so many actors globally and regionally are included in this problem. took you to include the there, especially in terms of military, a fax for that reason. i think the biggest problem between turkey took care and egypt is leave the are not the muslim brotherhood at the moment, and we have to speak about the, the more regarding the future of the nation. because you took the steps regarding libya will be closer to the affecting future relations with egypt. well, it's exactly that. i mean, there's many issues when it comes to libya,

obviously the exclusive economic zone, the disputed maritime borders, military interference use of, i mean, how are they going to come to any sort of agreement on any of those issues and do you think that they can? yes, the libya is as my previous guess also, masha is one of the most important issues that tripped a comp plan alignment for both countries. and you know that the intervention of the turkish or intervention is site. libya, especially in tripoli, brought air compared to la piece to the region because there is a stella mate position now inside libya. saw if there is an agreement in order to make an alignment for the libyan shoe. probably that they've been striation for board sized for that reason. if the egypt shall sites on the stance that it is also air when position for the egypt government, and for all it is economical, are problem,

sir. i do believe that that will be an agreement all of the libyan issue from the point of perspective, after exclusive economical zone and the continental, shall we shoes. i should say that there is no overlapping area in between each a bank to get the issue is again the libyan continental shelf and exclusive economic along probably that took years. gus exploration, indeed, libyan continental shelf. and the economical actually exclusive economical zone will be on the lead on this be a to pull apart, but not the overlap and gary us colonial. what do you think of the sticking points going to be for egypt when it comes to, to libya is there of red line that you don't think age of to one across? i think so egypt to cease libby as part of his social security. and also this very clearly wasn't kirk is forces went to libya based on an agreement with the g, a. d,

general national accord or government under storage there. and almost the forces came close to so so c, c came out in a very tough speech and he drew the red line that they will not accept any further advancements of the either the forces or the gene. a forces into said except is a very critical area for each of the should security. so yes, there is, there is some issues. but i also think that both candidates realize that they can be one with which as the previous guest mentioned, if they come to an agreement. and i think the issue is not only between time take it also between the opposing parties would only be until now they still there are many divisions or the elections were, were supposed to place on december 21, 2021 moment. and definitely, now we are missing some openness between both parties,

particularly in the light of the recent initiative by the the you in a void to libya. and there are some hopes that election would look at least by the end of this year. but both parties is either an east, olivia, led by people have thought of the so called labor national army, the l in a. and also the, the government to believe it should come to terms and not have to move forward and putting connections, laws and procedures. if this happened, i think of countries like it and typically they will come to an agreement because they know that if this division is settled down, they will benefit a lot economically and strategically as well. elaine, i want to circle back to something that you said earlier. the one faces a presidential election in a few weeks time. i mean, how important is this for him? you know, and what is the support like the and to kia for forging a closer relationship with egypt at this point in time?

well, due to our age, we could have the chance to witness many different periods. so let's focus foreign policy. in the past, for, for that reason, we witness see the positive impacts often 0 problem with the neighbors policy in the past. for that reason, turkey know that actually that are so many advantages if he can, it can underline the when, when a strategy, what it's a neighbor, including asia, as, as a regional partner, it's very easy to the structure relation between turkey, turkey. so the are of the, on the one, but it's also not so hard to create the kind of amity to create a positive, awful spirit in which, especially all of the countries will change, especially in terms of economic benefits. and like my colleague goes to on the line, turkish egypt and egyptian economic relations have never fallen down in the last

couple of years, it always went up and up. and this is also very interesting because we see a similar terms with the turkish is drive that relations as well, because turkey has made it called fickle problem is what it had so many weird times which is brought in the past. but the economy creation number never vanstone so, so you need this potential and it's quite aware that it's very important for you to have for the investment to have a better economic benefits from the region. for that reason, i guess many countries, including saudi arabia, united arab emirates, egypt is right, we, they know that they have so many stuff, james bond, they have better relations. but at the same time, there are some cries of times when sometimes purposely all these countries are trying to show wolf in terms of military aspects. they are trying to show what they

are military, pollard, until he has been doing that. since the start talks to serial and civil war until she was going up with a husband, she, how's the, you know, say very significant military acute months, which it took. she's also trying to sell to media as well. and they were abused in libby and civil war. in the past and church is there in b b, i mean to terribly but not so she or egypt are there as russia there which is very important. and russia is still there and field quite determinants to, to continue its position there by improving its relations with china. and we also see that there's a kind of activity on the united states position as well in libya because after the ukrainian or there's a huge energy in security problem regarding europe for that reason. so you say, and i said, sorry,

very much interested in levy of energy need oil. and you've seen in the last couple of weeks that there was an agreement between a libyan company and the company about to construction of reference or in reference to india and leave your capital for the technical stuff to dig out and to sell. it's due to the outside work, so they need great powers and reach you to rivalry in the middle east between the united states and rising china and russia in terms of africa in terms of that me delete should use if i want to stay zoomed out for a moment and talk about the eastern mediterranean and how that would be impacted the likes of greece and cyprus, how those countries would be impacted by close to time between to kia and the egypt . ah, the turkish,

erica exclusive economical zone and the continental shelf has lots of problems with the cypress activity degrees, as you have mentioned. but as i said in my previous comments, that there is no overlapping area in between to care and the egypt for exclusive economical songs. and for the continental shelf, and so far we have seen, and we have realized that although huge relations, immense relations in between egypt and greece, good egypt has always been respectful to the turkish economical songs. and also to do sat continentals on speech to care has already declared clearly for that reason, the normalization of relations in between 2 can egypt. we'd have no effect to the relations of egypt and greece and turkey and egypt. for that reason, those full problems are apart from each others, but i should also add that the normalization of relations between 2 care and egypt

probably won't have an effect to the elections inside. took care because the agenda inside to gaze completely different inside took care. but i should also, at one not to helene that the turkish existence inside egypt for in libya and which is very important from the security off the sar loon flank security of europe. you know that the russian forces inside a libya whilst together with devora or poly for half that and if they were successful, you should understand that the european southern flank, especially the ita live, won't be in the tread off the russian threat, which we know from the ukraine and other issue about that is the problem, is that a be thought the turkish existence inside libya data will be a huge flow of refugee is because of the clashes from libby to the europe to kill.

so through and that, that flow of refugees from libya to europe. we should never forget that 2 issues. yes, of course, i should also underline that this created the tension between cynthia and egypt as well because their job is libya as a national security problem. and for 30 live is quite significant in terms of many aspects, but this is not as serious in the long run. it's serious, but it's not the same thing that egypt sees libya as a national security problem, as, as, and as a need for, you know, there are significant for egypt. so i do agree that your position india was somehow beneficial or preventing the crisis in europe in southern europe, a space should be, but i also shoot underline that this created some other problems regarding the regional partners like egypt, ok, and killer. we spoke about this

a little bit earlier, but it seems like, you know, as many countries have been divided by the board, you cry and many other issues at this point in time. these just as many that are wanting to become friends again. i mean, we've got saudi arabia and iran, syria and saudi arabia, cutter and barbara, and now to kia and egypt. why do you think there is a coming together of these nations at this point in time all at once? i think this is because of what's happening get out of the wall. it now line with the sink may be one of the hallmarks that happened over the last century. this is and your changes. that's happening right now to look at that i shouldn't create. this is the 1st long term war since the 2nd world war we're talking about now more than 14 months of devastating war that's happening now and the heart of europe. this has a huge implications for the international system and the global politics. and we see demonstration of this already happening right now over the place. we also see the rising not only competition, but also the conflict between the u. s. and china,

and we see the china, the china chinese attempts in order to have and not the only economic infant was, but also political influence in the region. we so have a very important development over the last months when china broke up for the 1st time apiece. or is dunkin of relation between the, at, on the and how that would be at the something significant. and then there's a lot of what's happening in the region and also in the global living. so i think all these countries that you mentioned, tom came to a conclusion that they need to re position themselves that they need to rethink the relationships are thick and a lot of what's happening. so we, so now what are push, man and assumption of relation between here and this other area, the same is happening between is already the and syria sim is happening. we, are there any other countries? so we see significant changes right now. so now we can not speak of long term foes or long term friends. it's all contingent upon what's happening,

either originally or internationally. i just would like to add something about the smithsonian issue, i just very quickly. yeah, very quickly. i think this would be one of the most dividing issues between kids. can egypt for 2 reasons? one of them is you establish what's called the east method. any and guess forum in 2090 ethics. it secluded took you from that forum, which includes other kinds of such as your dental italy, france, and cyprus. and we know, but it will that cyprus and these are the main adversities of turkey, the main fault of tricky. and they have good relations with egypt. so would you sacrifice, it's rachel, with these 2 countries in order to appease satisfied to something else. the 2nd issue is that until now, it did not the limit or the democrats there by the time borders. and this is an issue that we look at when it comes to the future relation to both countries. ok. unfortunately we have run out of time. thank you very much. it's going to be

fascinating to see how this plays out. thank you very much. there are 3 guests today use of alabama helene, sorry. out in kelly, ill, a man thank you very much for being on inside story and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. i'll just hera dot com and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter. handle is add a j inside story for me, tom craig, and the whole team here. bye for now. ah a jump into this tree 10

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