tv The Bottom Line Al Jazeera April 16, 2023 4:00am-4:31am AST
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whoring hundreds of billions of dollars and subsidies and programs to encourage young people to have children. despite this, the average number of babies as south korean women will have fell further below one last tier 20.78. only 4 percent of women here between the ages of 20 and 34 viewed marriage and having children as essential. i'm worried about a big hole in our national security, as fewer people be available to serve in the military. with many young south koreans struggling with day to day career and financial challenges, analysts are calling for innovative schemes to tackle the problem. ah, hello there, i'm the star. he tando with the top stories here on al jazeera and people in sudan are spending an anxious night after fighting between the army and the countries
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biggest power in military group. the rapids support forces. ah, there are explosions and gunfire and the capital courtroom and other parts of the country on saturday. the doctor's union says at least 27 civilians have been killed . the army is refusing to negotiate with the rapid sport forces. the violent power struggle is the latest blow to hopes for a transition to democracy. him morgan has more from the capital. it doesn't look like the situation is the escalating. in fact, the army put out a statement saying that it will not negotiate with the rapid support forces until those forces are dissolved and the rebel a troops are dealt with. so it looks like if, despite the fact that people have been calling for a de escalation of the situation here in the capital and across the country, the armed forces look like they're going ahead with developing the rapid support forces and continuing to attack, they've already enabled the group as
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a rebel for us, and we were seeing a continuing of fighting here in the, in the area of her to me near the vicinity of the presidential palace. we can still hear shots being fired. we can hear heavy artillery being fired. it's not clear yet who is in control of the presidential palace, but the army says it is in control of the headquarters. the state television is being battled over both 5 wanting to gain control and how to international airport at the moment looks to be under the control of the armed forces. so the escalation continues and lots of tension here. and the capital of fighting continues between both sides with civilians caught in the middle. now yemen, warring sides have released more detainees on the 2nd day of a major prisoner exchange. this was the latest group of prisoners to arrive and the rebel controlled capital. and dozens of troops from the saudi led coalition, also released on saturday. this exchange as part of a broader diplomatic effort to try to enter the 8 year long conflict. thousands of
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protesters returned to the streets of israel for 15, straight week to oppose the government plan to overhaul of the judiciary. prime minister benjamin netanyahu put the changes on hold back in march. the bill comes before parliament again later this month. so when members return from recess, the proposal would limit the power of the supreme court and get politicians more fe . intrusion judges unions in france have a curious present a manual micron of showing contempt for protesters after he signed unpopular pension reforms and law, their calling for demonstrations to continue against the measures which raised the retirement age. by 2 years to $64.00, the changes became lot just hours after being approved by francis highest constitutional authority. no more. so self look in the end. it is the democratic course that we have been promised for a few days, saying that it is inevitable. and i think that this reform, whether it is good or not, should have been postponed because the consequences will be terrible from a political point of view. the news will say closer to the left,
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this will cover the constitutional council has studied job. finally into law is perhaps a bit quick, especially given the social movements it should be postponed. su lazarus, u haul, says i'm friends, but of i've were in origin. so i'm going back to my country at some points, but even if i don't go back, my children were born here. so i wouldn't want my children to work until they're 64 . that's too much. when are you going to enjoy your retirement? you're not going to work for your life. by the time you enjoy your retirement, your dead bolden or germany has shut down. it's 3 remaining nuclear power plants. oh, oh. and the nuclear campaign is counted down there as the next are. this time plant came off the grid. the government decided to phase out nuclear energy in 2011 after the fukushima nuclear accident in japan. all and as germany is, shuts down its last nuclear power plant. europe's biggest reactor began operations
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in finland, the old kilowatt. so 3 is expected to generate power for at least 60 years. a plant will meet around 14 percent of finland's electricity needs, and boost supplies and the region, which was also hit by russian cuts last year. while those are the headlines, i'll be back with more news for you here after the bottom line. do stay with us on out there. ah. ready hi, i'm steve clements, i have a question for all of our lives. the dollar has been the king of currencies around the world. but is that about to change? let's get to the bottom line. ah, what's happening to the almighty us dollar for decades? it was the reserve currency of the international oil trade, which propped up its value and its demand from albania to zambia. but now more and
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more countries are making deals to trade oil and other currencies as an alternative to the dollar. and that raises questions about the current world water, which is run by the united states period. china might be leading the way in the d dollarization efforts, but more and more countries are jumping on that bandwagon like russia, brazil, and saudi arabia. how nations trade and oil and gas has helped keep the dollar a petro dollar at the top of the heap. your recent ships mean that america and the dollar being downgraded as the world creates alternatives. today we're speaking with someone who really knows how our world's economy works. and the important role of oil in all of this is daniel year. again, the vice chairman of s and p global historian and pulitzer prize winning author of several books, but most recently, the new map energy climate and the clash of nations. but in this, you foretold really the ukraine crisis. you for told what the world needed to worry
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about by way of various squeezes on oil and gas that could come either through climate policies or from russia, weapon, ising energy, as you look at it. now, what's the situation? well, i think if you look at it, now of course you are seeing all these trends unfold and i think know, and i mean i did see a war coming over russia and a westover ukraine. didn't see it as something that would go on for over a year, and i don't think anybody did. vladimir putin certainly did not. he thought it'd be over 5 days. and his troops brought their dress uniforms for victory parade. there were a number of big themes, the new map, clearly the other associates, if it goes to what you're talking about, about the dollar is the fact that the u. s. in china have moved from what i called in the new map, the w t o consensus, we're all in it together. we're all in globalization to this incredibly, increasingly sharp great power competition. and around the world, when i talk to the world leaders in different continents, they all say,
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we don't want to have to choose between one side or the other, but that's where we are now. so where does this go? because i think the way you just frame that is really interesting because you end up with a very divided world and you end up with europe in the united states in one camp, maybe japan, you end up with other parts of the world that may have you know, india hedging its bets. russia in china, tying up, is that a world where the transit atlantic relationship has enough room to run? but a transatlantic relationship has become a lot more important, especially since this, this war started. and one of the things, one of the many miscalculations that latimer potent made was he assumed that nato would fall apart, that high gas, natural gas prices would cause political change in europe. it's had the opposite effect. what he's done is he's really verified nato. and the world is increasingly starkly divided in a way that we wouldn't have thought about 3 or 4 or 5 years ago. so what is this
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due to things like the dollar and also china's role? i've been wondering for a while, you know, russia used to be a geo strategic threat to china. and china used to look at the united states as a nation. it cooperated with, but sometimes i was rivals with but it wasn't an intense rivalry. and now you look at it where russia and china coming together has huge implications for the world, given the fact this fact that soon china will be the largest economy in the world. and it's buying, although let me say that there is now some debate. and we, we all kind of assume the world bank, everybody said by 2028, china's archer. so down in china, the population issues productivity, it may not be, but it still may be what's going to be a big, big weight. but if the chinese and by the way, the key thing is for many countries around the world and developing world, china is their most important market in latin america. i've heard of from the president, one of the country, latin america said we have a strategic relationship with united states. but by the way,
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china's our most important market. mean, if you go to area after you know, all around the world, you hear that whether it's southeast asia, whether it's africa, whether it's latin america, whether it's even many nations in europe. but i guess the question is, if china and russia oil producers begin to look at, because you've taught me more than anyone else that boil undergirds, the value, the reserve currency value of the dollar. and the question is whether that is he roading, as china begins to do deals where oil and energy can be traded in other currencies . and they bring in the saudis to do that. and that reserve currency status of the dollar erodes as you get baskets of other are we anywhere near seeing the reserve currency that status of the dollar? well, i think we're seeing the word you used erosion, i think is the right word. and in fact, one of the former secretary of treasury is war and that if you use sanctions to much, it creates an impetus to find alternative even crypto. is it alternative the dollar,
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but it really what brought it home to be? was one of the things that write about the new math is a median i've observed in moscow between president she, she paying and present potent and potent said to she and i apologize to you. i've kept up till 4. i am talking and she's repeating replies. it's ok, we never have enough time to talk about what are the main things they clearly talk about is, is changing the international order in which the u. s. and the u. s. dollar plays a central role. they want a different kind of world oil world order. and in this case, of course, as a result of the war, i think russia is actually looking, get into is no longer going to be an energy superpower. but it will increasingly be a dependency of china. and i think the really interesting thing is that i'm going to probably get a lot of negative mail for this is when you think about having the reserve currency status of the dollar, or you've got a, you know, trans national, public good, which the united states, as the anchor of it means bad guys deal,
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do deals in your currency. it means that bugs and criminal gangs and you know, bad people out there use your currency because that's the currency for everyone. once you begin sanctioning or blocking or using the switch system to undermine transactions, isn't it logical that those players then go and try and find alternate? yeah, they haven't tremendous impetus to do it now. so far, i think if you see barrels of oil priced and one, it's still refers back to a dollar price at this point. it isn't that it isn't like you've entered a separate universe. it's still not a fully honest. yeah, yeah, a placement of yeah. and it, because it's, it's symbolic message, but it's still anchored in the dollar. and if you really think about this whole world economies, it's world war 2. what is enabled globalization which enabled this all these connections that have made, you know, you can, i'm across possible. it's dollars been a bedrock for one of the things has begun to emerge. as we've seen, chinese diplomacy take flight and i was in the middle east. i think i was talking
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to you. and when i was over there, news broke, that the foreign minister who used to be a master of china, the united state, had broker to deal between iran and saudi arabia. we've also seen just recently french president macaroni in beijing, basically saying we're not that fully aligned with united states on issues like taiwan, what's going on? well, i think what we've seen is that china is now become an assertive power are in global diplomacy. and although initially people will say, and it was the saudis had strong interest for some kind of stabilization, because yemen and the houses in those attacks on saudi facilities on saudi cities is deeply destabilizing. so i think they had an interest. ramsey, economic position is so bad, but it is that they had an issue, but the fact that china could claim to have done it. that's
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a pretty powerful message. and of course, it's a complicated message because there's one country that the u. s. is very much rate against in the middle east is of course around. but what i'm going to get into it in a 2nd. but you know, that, you know, china also signed a 25 year deal with iran called the strategic cooperation agreement. i mean that, so we're looking, are we looking at a structural shift there of essentially the anti western axis, but i wouldn't go that far because i think yes, in terms of russia, obviously in terms around the thing that gets overlooked in all the discussions is how integrated the u. s. and track nice economies. badge are even as we talk about people talk about re shoring or friends shoring moving supply chains. these to economies are so interconnected. sometimes i think the leaders in the political leaders don't realize how connected they are and how fundamental that is to the globe. i mean, china is america's largest trading partner. yeah, i think we do more than $700000000000.00 trade each year. so it is enormously that
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you never hear that in washington. yeah. that just and there's a stance i was in a meeting not so long ago where i heard people say, well, move august, i change. it's much more complicated than that. i mean, we have 2 really big trading partners. one is china, of course, the others, canada. but that the chinese one, you know, part just everything. it doesn't run without it. now, you know, saudi arabia, history and behavior better than anyone. i know. and you know, the realities of what they can do in terms of well production, they've just decided to cut another 1000000 barrels of production and half a 1000000000 or how was it half, excuse me for that. but i think when you got to the top of these changes, when you look at that the, the direction things are going, i'm just interested in whether saudi arabia at this point is beginning to feel its muscles coming back in terms of being a global power. dictating price will be nice, safe and hedging its bets on a relationship with president biden's white house,
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that it may not like too much. i think it's true. i mean, saudi arabia is in a different position today. clearly it's going through a big program of economic reform and when you're there, you can see it sort of unfolding in front of your eyes. obviously there's a lot of oil revenues flowing in the country that have been deployed and a lot of different ways. and i think saudi arabia sees itself is not only regional power, but is a global power, and certainly is a global economic power. and there's a degree of confidence there that has come with a new generation planes that should decisive role in the country in the u. s miss manage that relationship. did joe biden mismanage that relationship, or i wouldn't wanna judge it raising, i mean, the saudis, you know, different pockets of saudi arabia gave jerry cushion or a $2000000000.00 fund to play with. that doesn't look like that. affection has been, you know, transferred. i think the relationships are not, as you know, that relationship has gone up and down over time. i think it is been stressed. i
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think the united states needs to look very carefully at the region and, and that relationship with saudi arabia is going to become more important in the world economy. and so i think that there is a need to have a better understanding. but saudi arabia is in a different place today than it was in the past, and it sees itself as a global player in the way it did not in the past. and you think that this is going to consolidate further. i know there's a bricks meeting coming up this summer to sort of look at potentially bringing in new members to opec, you know, adding, expanding that group or their geo strategic consequences that would flow from those developers. i think so. i think and remember russia still continues to be a charter member of the bricks. i think it's important that one of the things that i think there's been left out of the discussion here in this country is an understanding of the perspectives of the global south on these global issues on how the u. s. phrases them and also on the issues of energy. and again,
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the global south looks to you know, trying to main market. the very interesting country is the position of india, which on the one hand is india and china have their own very big historic rivalry. and competition, and i have been exchanging a bullets, but india is also hedging. it's bad. so i think you use that word before in terms of its relationship with russia, because it does not. it does not want to see russia get to close to china. so there are other games being played that the u. s. is actually part of right now. dan, you know, we're having a very heavy discussion, full of foreign policy and economic policy and oil and energy. but if you read your book to me, what so wonderful about it is that it reads for me like a netflix series, if you will, maybe in a series that it's full of vignettes, of unusual moments. people stories of how they impacted this exchanges between individuals. that is full of serendipity, that
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a certain things didn't happen. we would not be in the place where, where we are, and i give you a great example. give me an example, a lovely story. i mean, that's the thing. as somebody who writes history, you know, there's a tendency to think everything is pre ordained at night, but actually history is full of accidents. for instance, a lunch in los angeles and a fish restaurant in 19082311 mosque having made a lot of money with pay pal is having lunch with a young electric fanatic, almost that one called fanatic but enthusiast named j. b struggle who wants to get him to do an electric airplane and buses. i'm not interested in that. he says, well, what about electric cars? if i'm interested in that, that becomes tesla. and a few years ago, ilan musket, if that lunch hadn't occurred, there might not have been a tesla, and we not might not be seen all the automakers in the world hustling to develop electric cars. and you know, if that lunch hadn't been there, history might have been different. well,
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it raises the question for me of what other vignettes and moments you're storing up that we may not see because, you know, i know the new book is out now but, but these most, we're looking at cobol, lithium, geo, strategic competition, oil and energy. the dollar, whether or not we, we look at these kind of high brow issues too seriously that there are really interesting questions down below about, i don't know, chinese pride or russian sense of humiliation which i, you know, driving things in. but germany giving up it's nuclear. i mean, i'm just wondering if there are other well that we should be aware. yeah. well the ones i'm, i'm really interested you mentioned minerals, copper and so forth. coke cope. i'm really quite obsessed with that right now, because there's this notion that in 25 years, we can do an energy transition from an economy that's 80 percent hydrocarbons to one that sort of is net 0. and it's going to require an enormous amount of minerals and people haven't really looked at the amount of minerals that are necessary. so
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we are company s and p global. did this 8 months study on it. and so much respect in the new edition of new map and you know, an electric cars, 2 and a half times more copper than a traditional car. i mean, things like that that people are not thinking. you add it up and you say, wait a 2nd, the world's going to be a lot more focused. not only on big oil, it's going to start to get about big shuffles about mine in a lot more than it has in the past. well, i mean, i think is raise the interesting question about energy transitions because you talk about the history of them. and actually history transitions are not neat and clean, right? you know, oil may have come along and knocked out cold, but we still use a lot of coal. in fact, it's more in demand than ever before. oil or overtook coal in the 1900 sixty's. today the world uses 3 times as much coal. and last year was the highest cold consumption in the history of the world. so how does this look like when you're kind of moving towards a mineral focused, i guess would be a strategic race, which,
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you know, what kind of the next great race if you will, in that arena? how is, how are the great powers as well in that, that is, that's a crucial question. because over here you have net 0, gotta get all these minerals for over here. you have great power competition. us in china. they come together because china, because oh, uses half the world's copper has built up the, an inordinately strong position in all these minerals in mining and processing 80 percent of solar panels, 80 percent of lithium ion batteries. and you know, now if you look, they see the squeeze coming before i think they nodded. i great day, i think they initially did it because they were trying to assure that they had the, the raw materials they needed for their rapid economic development. but i think it's now taken on this very much a strategic concept for them. and if you look at this inflation reduction act in the united states, it's also compete with china act net 0 policies which are coming down
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the pike fast and furious and they are, you hear them talked about, you talk about climate movements as actually mattering. and is there a point where the net 0 policies come along and create shocks of their own and hard choices when it comes to policy? because the people behind net 0 policies see a different race, which is the world burning up and running, hotter and hotter, and not being able to maintain the so i'm just interested in your insights. well, what looks to me like a collision? yeah, i think there, i mean, i think there are 4 things to think about energy transition. one is what we started the beginning return of energy security. sorry. now europe 2 years ago didn't want us l n g. now u. s l n g liquified natural gas, along with elegy from other countries, including gutter and australia, is a fundamental fundament now of foundation of european energy security. the 2nd thing is just the scale of change in $100.00 trillion dollar economy. how quickly 3rd, and we kind of alluded to it, is this north south,
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a new new north south divide on issues of climate and energy and for the minerals thing. so i think they're all there. so i think it's important to be realistic about this. and at least some economists say, if you try and push the 2050 goals into 2032, rapidly, you will have to use your phrase economic shocks. what happens with the global south, which is another part of this equation which often gets neglected? i think they feel neglected. and as they're growing, one of my obsessions is where is tomorrow's rising global middle class going to be? it's really not that terms of net additions to public class or not in the transfer atlantic relationship there. and all these other populations are shredded that don't have the same economics of energy as the developed world has. so here's a you wanted anecdote. i was chairing a seminar with african energy ministers. and they were complaining about their inability to get financed from european banks to develop things like natural gas
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pipelines. so they don't have to, women don't have to spend 2 hours a day gathering wood. they don't have indoor air pollution, which kills people and so forth. and the energy administer, i think, was from senegal. she said, you know, they've taken away the finance. she said it's like, they've taken away the ladder. what do they expect us to do? jump or fly? and i think that's a very strong message from the south that they have different priorities as, as the former energy petroleum minister of india said, there's not an energy transition. their energy transition is plural. because if you're india, you have a very different thing and energy transition for you is going from burning board to using natural gas for cooking. you know, when you find that right now the bite administration's energy policies realistic when it comes to these energy trade offs with, with climate goals. i've noticed that he's, you know, tried to put to marks down on preserving vast areas of forest while opening up
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areas to oil development and what not that you would not have thought of joe biden would have done. where is joe biden on? i think it's, i think they're, they're feeling the pressure is coming from different directions. one, they came in with a very strong climate objective. right. from the day he was in the oval office on the 1st day to the fact that you think john kerry likes jo biden's energy policy. well, you, john kerry is even to say, well, you can still use natural gas if you abate the carbon. so i think there's an evolution there and they looked at it and i think they also saw that in fact, energy security, falling off the agenda in the united states because of the shell revolution. it came back and measured in terms of high prices. and so i think we've also had them encouraging domestic domestic energy production. so i think it's been complicated for them to how to put these to positions, energy security and energy and energy transition together. i would not have
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expected france a key partner recently hosted with a state dinner here in washington to be the one to throw the 1st big crack in that with regards to china's place in the world. well i think that obviously europe looks at china differently as an very important market. mccrory has always had, you know, he was one who thought well, i can persuade pollutant, you know, not to go to war or to stop it. and i think he's trying to, you know, in a sort of, charles to go away, have an independent french foreign policy. but he's also part of the, you and he's part of nato. i imagined there was some pretty strong back channel communication about messaging there. and of course, the president of the e u was a law with, with him, and she was left out of some of the very important meetings because she's taken a different line on china. so i think if you're looking to the future, steve, clearly the most important and the most dangerous issue is this great power competition. and how particularly china in the united states manage it to avoid
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conflict. and you know, i write about the dangers of south trying to see which people are not much focused on. obviously, taiwan. i think that, that, that's going to be the dominating geo political issue. and it's going to take real estate craft to manage it. well, with that, daniel juergen, vice chairman of s and p global economic historian, and most recently author of the new map energy climate and the class of nations read it. it's fantastic, thanks so much for being with us. thank you steve. so what's the bottom line? it seems the united states has finally reached the tipping point of how far sanctions can go for decades has been waging or threatening financial warfare on dozens of countries that don't follow its rules. summer invading other countries and summer, committing human rights violations, summer running transnational criminal operations. but whatever the reasons, more and more nations are now working hard to make sure the united states can't simply shut them down, just like that. so they're looking for new ways to trade and currencies beyond the dollar, which will eventually weaken the greenback as the undisputed reserve currency of
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the world. ironically, the sanctions that were built and preserve americans power might be actually weakening it. it's a long way from happening and the dollar is still king, but the toe was in the door. some folks will say, yea, finally, an end to american, a proxy and imperialism. but it also comes with the whole world of pain and instability until the chaos eventually gives way to some other new world order. and that the bottom line, the it's the only month of ramadan near madonna keystone with the it's look at changing the she says to do cookie from new zealand to iceland. we explore how muslim minorities cope with the shortest and longest fasting hours on the planet was actually quite difficult. i had the chief play 3 pizza water with some days that i will have to
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add those base to why fast after amada at amada, on north and south on al jazeera. when the news breaks, this head nationwide strikes since the beginning of the year when people need to behind. and the story needs to be told. i just want to research deeply and dive into its history and origin, with exclusive interviews and in depth about korea, probation really sees the cherry blossom 1st. al jazeera has teens on the ground to bring you more award winning documentaries, and lives. lou . hello again. i miss nancy tanda, how was an update for you here on out. as eric, she dons doctors union says at least 20.
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