in that stretches across a good part of egypt, when picking up there ensue while libya one or 2 showers a possibility to sliding outs of the iberian peninsula across northern parts. open rocky. plenty. a showers meanwhile, now gathering quite nicely the seasonal rice pushing up across west africa, joining up with some very heavy right house, a comp, a route into the democratic republic of congo. some heavier showers there too, in to kenya. but further south, it is looking generally dry once again for a time, although we will see increasing cloud, grassy pushing right into south africa. ah, the 1st commander of the lebanese army after independence from france, who took over as president at the time of crisis in a deeply divided country. 50 years after his death, al jazeera woo tells the story edgy her architect of the modern live in the states

. soldiers statesman on a j 0. the battle in sudan rages on mediation efforts and cease fires have so far failed. can regional powers that back the rival size ring enough pressure to stop the fighting? or is there involvement only complicating peace efforts? this is inside store. ah hello and welcome to the program. am fully bad. people fighting in sudan between forces loyal to 2 generals is threatening to turn into a prolonged conflict. violence erupted in khartoum a week ago that followed weeks of power struggles between army chief abdel fat albert han and his deputy mohammed. i'm done, dagger known as

a metty. the commander of the rapid support forces all are safe. so far, hundreds of people have been killed in thousands injured is led to thousands more fleeing the capital cartoon for neighboring chad. many of them fear this may be the beginning of a much wider conflict. the outside forces are complicating the situation with both sides, receiving support from regional and global powers. we'll get to our guests in a moment, but 1st this report ah, from chaos to comb. intense street battles have thrown sedans, capital into turmoil in the past few days. it's streets are emptying us. thousands of people flee cartoon. the conflict is driven by a power struggle between so don's army led by uphill fighter albert hon. under rapid support forces, a part of military group under muhammad hummed, under gallow,

also known as him, had t. the 2 generals have been jostling for control of the country's economy and it's military that has torn up plans for a ton to civilian rule, the world or other villa dinner hug. alarm this destruction and sound of gunfire did not leave room for happiness that our beloved people deserve. we are very sad for this pain, but there still hope that together will pass this crisis and come out of it more. united and stronger one, army, one, nation. sedans, strategic location on the red sea and its success to the nile river. and vast gold reserves have long been coveted by other powers. leading to both sides being backed by outside forces. mit accuses egypt of colluding with bra hun and sending fighter jets and soldiers to help the sudanese military. egypt has denied the

allegations and said its forces were in sudan for a joint military exercise. hm. at t has close ties with saudi arabia, the u. a. e and libya and libyan warlord halle, for half tar, has reportedly sent military supplies to the rapid support forces, which he denies the russian mercenary organizational wagner group has also been accused of plundering. so don's gold resources to bankroll its operations in ukraine. we don't have yet information that it has been actively engaged in conflict, but it is of course, in norway it can be denied that it has been somehow behind door and mark this organizes among trying to protect. but other such domination schemes, alarms, monitors. israel is involved too. it's foreign minister eli cohen has been engaging with, were hon or normalizing ties between the 2 countries. in recent years,

a prolonged conflict would also disrupt plans by u. e. companies to build ports, as well as china's investments incident. any escalation would have regional implications, threatening that nearby states like salt sudan, that export oil through it's not the neighbor. there will also be a risk of rising numbers of refugees fleeing across borders, causing more instability. and for sudan itself, the longer the conflict goes on, the bigger the risk of it widening and the greater the suffering of its people. felix nora for inside story. ah, well as now bringing our guests for today's inside story, joining us from cairo is martin a shed. was a journalist, an analyst covering the middle east and north africa region, in khartoum,

sudan hollowed high founding director, ad confluence advisory a sudan based thinktank. she is also host of spotlight 249 on capital, fm sudan, and in montreal. canada is highly me. danny, associate professor and chair of the african studies program at mcgill university. khalid is also author of many political and economic publications on sudan, and one welcome to your thank you for joining us, hollowed in cartoon. let me start with you. if i can, i understand that you've been coordinating safe passage for people to leave cartoon . can you tell us 1st about the current situation on the ground? are people able to leave? and if they are where they headington, it's quite a difficult gut wrenching decision to make, whether to stay or to go the risks and considerable risks to both. some people have made the calculation that it's better to stay and wait for a better sort of, you know, exit a more secure exit. and others have decided that it's too dangerous for them to say

. and so many a heading southwards towards desist straight date on met in the street. but we just had, in the past few hours, is that melanie street has seen some crashes between the paramilitary recess and the fit on armed forces has been taken over by the paramilitary forces, which makes it difficult for people to of us. mostly because experiences of others passing checkpoints by the time entry forces, say that people have experienced looting and people have experienced, you know, be shot at and being sent back. so that is no longer, much of a viable option. have people been able to leave the country and had to chad or other neighboring countries while consumers buying smack in the middle of to them. and so it's very difficult to get to any of sedans, borders, of course, that on board as many countries. and you said earlier that i was helping people to find safe passage. everyone is doing that as their what's the groups that have been

set up towards the fight faces that have been set up. people are holding each other using most importantly, local resistance committees who know that the street really well. and it's just the case of, you know, at this point, almost russian roulette. whether you make it through or not hollowed we are discussing today on inside. sorry. the foreign component to the confrontation, are you aware on the ground in sudan of any direct or indirect involvement by regional countries. in the current fighting, we've heard reports of libyan warlord halle for half tar, perhaps, sending military support to our the paramilitary. i. safe reports of egypt sending support to, to the army. what is the extent of outside involvement in the current fighting? well, those of us who have access to the entered, who so have access to the entered, have been keeping up with reporting on what's going on in sudan and increasingly

people and you know, on surprised by the fact that sedans neighbors would get involved for several reasons. one there that there's a history of some of these actors, particularly egypt, favoring south, the united arab emirates, sort of having working relationships with both the armed forces and the parliamentary forces, but favoring the paramilitary forces. i'm so, you know, there is an awareness of this is happening by now. one would have expected that supplies, particularly for the parent military force, would be dwindling. but that doesn't seem to be the case. so it does track with reporting that there is external engagement. i madison, a shedding cairo. let me come to you, tell us more about the foreign component to the current fighting who supports home and to what end, what are some of these regional powers wanting to get out of sudan? i think, you know, the phone lines right now. look increasingly clear. right. and they're not so different. i think the fault lines of predicted the fighting as well to

sac. yeah. nice of forces have always been favored and rights or to and then coordinated with by egypt and the states back to a very, very long history states current leadership and egypt right now. and you know, as a result of such, i think egypt obviously that the numbers interests that they feel is quite substantial for them and, and that's on one side that they would like to secure. i mean, most notably. ready grad renaissance, and obviously, you know, each of our forces coordinated with a number of military trail last their muscles in the past. and i think there's also the economic side that egypt has benefited from a number of kind of cheap produce and trade. both armies controlling amounts of 3rd domestic economies. that partnership. ready come a lifeline for each as well. considering it's very difficult economic situation right now,

so that's on that side. egypt also of course has more logical sense, but maybe just through it's long, sandy partnership. it also security and conventional sense actually where if use of the character security to come through military and military institutions on the other side very quickly. ready you know, obviously committee. ready is being supported for long relationship. this crisis quite a long sense of relationship the marines as well. and as long as egypt obviously. ready with the staff military, but still there was partners and providing gold mines there. there's obviously the mercenaries that was sent to young and accordingly. and so it's no surprise. obviously the rates are supporting hey miss, he can this fight, i think both civil magically and then and you know, reportedly and to be in the you know, militarily as well. right. so so, so i think, but just to conclude very quickly,

there's the ideological prism in the way that the cameras view security, which i think is very different than why how egypt is use. most people understand what you're doing this, but for the cameras, i think there's, there's quite a very fundamental fear. i think for them of, you know, obviously you know, the remnants of the shears islamist loyalists, particularly i think they'd give her hans, particularly under pressure for them. there was reports for hon. and, you know, it was under pressure from the cameras to try to rain the constituency in but seems more and more importantly that he is being pressure from when in that so. okay. i mean, there is that element of it, but common to both of them of stress is that neither actor, regardless of how they view security interests for them. or it's obviously doesn't want to ripple effect of political islam in any way. but neither of them want a civilian democratic movement. and as a result, the 2 groups they back, but we'll get to that. we'll get to that in a moment, matt,

i just want to bring highlight into the conversation and ask you, highlight about your thought about why some of these regional powers are involved in this conflict and, and how you think they're involved meant a country. i keep saudi arabia or the u. e as mat mentioned. how does it complicates the conflict? what is complicated, greatly not in terms, not only in terms of finding an eventual settlement, the fire and then hopefully to, to return to a discussions terms of overpaying. i civilian mac, democratic regime, but also these are to generals that really are driving on the financial support that they are receiving from the u a. e on the are to connected. and of course with respect to board hon logistical and financial support from egypt. but i did want to emphasize that overall it complicates it because of where to dad is jo. graphically, in addition to the financial patronage, we have the red sea area to down is extremely strategically placed. and so if we look at it in a kind of a larger way,

what we see over the last few years since them, since the revolution of 2019 is the scramble over building a label base in port to down. and that is something that the new way he cares deeply about. they've already invested $6000000000.00, i believe, estimated to build the naval base in port sedan. we have russia, of course, interested in the, in it as well. the you, the united states has conducted military exercises with a u, a e, or to that. and we also have china that's interested in that region. so that part of the story is crucial because it gives us the long term and understanding of why we got and so him. in addition to that, it's important to understand that there are extreme financial investments on the part of the value a, b, and the way in addition to that, it just natural support a billions of dollars with land to do, let me ask you about about that. the you a child, your ravia are the finances of the sudanese army. and the i said the rapid support forces, who as maps said, lent them fighters for the war in yemen. but now that the war in yemen is winding

down, it seems. do you think these 2 sides can get the generals to listen? how did i do? i think, yes, i think that's a very important point. i do think that that, that since s w a, b a has thought an exit option in yemen. and that the u. e, obviously, of course, has meyer itself in yemen and proved unsuccessful. i think that it's most people acknowledge that at this point, they are changing calculations on the part of united arab emirates. they no longer have that kind of interest in other words and make the no longer serves the role that he served so well for them in yemen. and also, of course, in libya, when did they also supported him again, alongside them. how studied libya? i think that calculation means that there is a possibility that the u. e. would put pressure on him back to or rather withdraw any kind of support. i do believe that matthews declaration from his part. there are other calculations on very much to do with the fact that he had lost the kind

of external patronage that he wanted. or we kind of enjoyed in the past, nor has he been to get the kind of support from pierre that he was counting on up. yeah. okay, hold on. let me come to you on this. as we've heard from both matt and holly, it's a lot of play as outside forces in this conflict, which means a lot of would be mediators from, from egypt, of course, the, you, a saudi arabia, the russians, even the chinese, to some extent, as you heard how do you think this complicates the solution to, to, to ending the fighting and which of these mediators do you think sandra's chance that convincing the general to stop the fighting? well, it's complicated massively, you know, the fact that you have these different actors who have different interests in sudan, but also in the region. so for example, the reporting that general have to in libya, is sending troops to support him,

etc. and then the problem is she forces, whereas the directions all sending pulls and other types of support to the sit on, on forces on the other side. whereas in libya, they're on the same side have that and the depression. and so there's a bit of a sort of chaotic scene here and that makes it very unpredictable which interests were, went out and was sort of jumper free. i think when it comes to mediators, it's not a case of choosing one over the other direction right now. yeah, so the thing is, is that that's exactly the point that leverage is required and none, no one, not even those who have leverage have put leverage on the table, which is why we have had 3 consecutive failed c 5. but the difference have been able to secure enough of these 5 to land the plane, pick up the soldiers and leave them off. he said that they have helped the gypsy and do that and secure that they reassure. so clearly there are avenues for a ceasefire. the issue is that all of these axes me to work together, they need to be in lock step with each other, including all the p 5 and russia,

china, and the u. s. and others. and that we haven't seen that happening. we've seen a very fragmented international response. okay. you mentioned earlier that it is not in the interests of the saudis, or the morality. so have a civilian lead government in sudan. why is that? and does that mean that these 2 countries can not mediate in this conflict? well, let me, let me qualify my statement by saying, i don't think it's the interest of, of pro democracy groups genuine. since you don't have a quote unquote civilian led, which are things you've been isn't build partnerships of military, no personalities, that lack of control state with civilian basis. so i think we need to use the same terminology that we would use for any western democracy or civilian one or to military control one. and so i don't think regional players are interested at all a civilian democracy and that's just not exclusive to sedan. i don't think that

they're interested in civilian. ready rule anywhere throughout the region, because i think any example of a, particularly one, perhaps in egypt case, it's so close to it. neighborly. as a ripple of facts that can then, you know, obviously encourage a number of other people to envision a different life for themselves as well. and so, you know, absolutely, i think this is what i mean i, i, i think from, despite the conventional view. ready security from egypt and the ideological more view of security from the upper. it's both of them fear a domino effect accordingly. and rather than, you know, their, their interests and the security regimes. when they see any kind of democratic example on the russ anywhere. and so down in many ways is actually a democratic example, just maybe not in the sense of the blueprints of the quote unquote nation state. but the spirit of democracy is very much thriving there. and then a lot of the things that balloon mentioned in terms of how these resistance companies are assisting civilians. you know that it's,

that's indicative of how that spirit of, of democracy in credibility of actors that are rallying for one another is still existing even um, in the war. all right, holly, your thoughts about this? what are these regional powers, including the emerald sin and saudi arabia, egypt even? what are they more interested in right now? i stable so donald progress towards establishing a democratic government was there without question. i agree with you get to 100 percent. they're interested in this table to down, but the important question or the question that raises themself, as we say, is, can there be tables to down with one of these generals taking over? and i think the answer is the categorical. no, i think what the depth of this crisis, what it has demonstrated, even on the part of egypt and saudi arabia, is that a military government in sudan that he's not capable actually of delivering stability. and here we turn to the united states, which i think is important in the congress that or sanctions against the generals

of for the united states for good or bad. but the position is that there is no possibility for stability for today in the region, which is even more important to them without returning to some point of civilian government. i think that that you think is enough international pressure has been applied by the us. absolutely not, in fact, as they are, americans in congress who are complaining and critic criticizing the biden administration. however, as the crisis deepens and, you know, american citizens are not even, you know, i've taken out of sudan accept stop. i think the criticism in washington is emerging, and unfortunately the depth of the crisis and it's how it's going to threaten the region, is pushing the by the administration to try to find that option here. and this has happened in the past, and there is always a possibility. the united states can actually put a pressure particular on saudi arabia and you a me because actually they were part and parcel of helping to oversee the framework agreement that did not go through. that's key that the final aspect that i'd like

to mention is egypt, egypt is absolutely not in the, in a, a transition to, to 1000000000 government. but egypt is making calculation from my miscalculation from my perspective, in the sense that they, they actually are under estimating the influence of the form of members of the national congress party that are backing hon. they feel that on would be on their side. and even though their, their regime at least as opposed to the summer so to speak, they are estimating the strength and the role of the remnants as we call them down of the national congress party. here again, we want to talk about the final important sorts of patronage, and that is the vast well of the national congress party, its members. much of that well actually is in other countries. other bank accounts . this is why discussions of targeted sanctions against these 2 general is, i believe, is going to be extremely important is already on the table in congress in the united states. okay, hold your thoughts about this. how did says targeted sanctions against the su general's and he also says something interesting that so don,

can not be led by either of these 2 generals. if not them, then who are what i mean? no one here. one either general to rule that has become there was always crystal clear in the way that the pro democracy movement has been pleading with the international community to he'd that call for a fully civilian government. when han and him and he inherited the state from the sheet and started this, you know, sort of domino effect that is good as to where we are. they faced sort of resistance from pro democracy groups at every ton. and it was the political process and the typical agreement proceeding the crashes on saturday that really tried to embed military rule into, into sort of a future political dispensation that has been outright rejected by many people in this country. there is a sort of idealism, i think, within the international community that perhaps these journals generals could be

reform and perhaps they could somehow and against all odds midwife as civilian democracy in sudan, everyone is already know that that's not possible. so for me, it's a question of, you know, i think alternatives will emerge. i think we're in this conflict for a while and add this conference, you know, continues. we will see civilian alternative emerge. but what is crystal clear right now, is that neither one of these general, even if one of them worked when militarily will have dismissed the after the 7 complex, in cartoon to be able to govern. so there's actually no stability to be found from either one of them successfully coming out of the match. you sorry about this. what do you believe is the way out of this current impasse? and who do you think coming back to our initial question? who do you think is best equipped today to mediate a successful resolution to the conflict the way out to the current

situation. i fear it's going to be and this is something community in particular western countries are brought about. and so i think failing to pay, sensitive and adequate attention to sudan and being receptive to the new wants of the countries and also the demands of the problem across the movement. they have in a way for their miscalculations and i think through their own timeframe, some interests accelerated compensation here between 2 generals. and the reality is for is always easier for them to stop that. i would echo loose thoughts and recommendations and calls here that i have to be coordinated efforts. and there might be a rush and, and or for chinese interest here, or the us or whatever it might be. i do think actually that institute maybe it's the optimism in me, unlike previous crises or a complex, you know,

erupt it over the last 10 to 12 years. namely think of, you know, for instance, syria or. ready crane where the security council spence so fundamentally polarized, i do think that, you know, there are maybe a shared incentive here to contain the crisis. i think we need to think right now in smaller steps and then that should be, you know, pressure him to get immediate cease fire, opening up the manager in corridors and prioritizing for civilian protections. and i do think, you know, obviously the security council be important because you're going to have a larger partners that are larger countries that are tied to also relations with egypt and the rates as well. while they argue, as partners, we understand global life as are getting more delivery by the day and to have the pressure and just that the cohesive coordination there, especially with chinese interests with adults. i don't see this expanse that i think there wouldn't be possibility to rain these, these,

these countries. and these are the countries that are back in these generals and, and it's a salary ality that they, they need to be rel, then be cooperative in order to put out the fire that they, you know, what gasoline are to begin with. i'm so highlight, i'll give you the last word because we're almost coming to, to the end of our program or your thoughts about how we end the current impasse and what happened if this conflict doesn't end swifty? yes. first of all, i want to echo what my colleagues have said, particularly with respect to the 1st step being dealing with humanitarian crisis. and there is a great deal of experience in terms of pushing towards and continues to push toward the cease fire and humanitarian quite corridor. as our, as my colleagues, that i do think that we have to focus and do these regional countries. international actors have to focus not only about in the past what they got out of sudan, but what, what they have to lose. and i'm including even european union in terms of the issue of my, of immigration, from sudan, let's say to europe, every country,

every region that has been involved directly in this conflict has a great deal to lose. i think that a more coherent kind of cooperation among both regional external actors is extremely important. and here i would reference not only the middle east countries, but actually kind of post conflict african countries like syria and area. and that is that the conflicts have seen as you know, full well i transition to civilian democracy. i think that that model is important . and here i mentioned at the african context because regional players can union the african countries who have the most to lose. and may not necessarily have the greatest leverage, may must be included as an essential part of the solution. because if their experience in the african continent actually transitioning post conflicts societies into a civilian democracy, we cannot ration african bodies like he got in the african union must be included. thank you very much. thank you. we're going to leave the conversation. they thank you to all 3 of you for such an insightful discussion,

100 higher income to mot michelle in cairo and holly mcdonny, in montreal. thank you very much once again and thank you to for watching. you can always watch this program again anytime by visiting our website at all just or dot com for further discussion, go to our facebook page at facebook dot com for slash ha inside story. and of course you can join the conversation on twitter. handle is a j inside story from me fully back to burn the whole hearing. don't. thanks for watching bye. for now. the me ah.

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