of here, and that makes way for the wet weather that will make its way across sir germany into poland, sliding across eobs all the way into northern parts of the balkans and then the best northerly way in that something of that called. and it will notice over the next couple of days, certainly across the northwest corner of europe for the mediterranean. it's generally finance rather will be one or 2 showers, just clipping northern part. so morocco, algeria, as well, went, whether they're lurking across a good path of the gulf of guinea, sliding further east. ah, a week the look of the world's talk business stores, thousands of people go on strike by the pay, the high cost of living from global markets and economies. small businesses, the export restrictions really important as opposed to understand how it affects party. counting the calls on our jazeera

investigating the use and abuse of power across the globe. on al jazeera, the battle in sudan rages on mediation efforts and since fires have so far, failed, can regional powers that back the rival size, bring enough pressure to stop the fighting, or is there involvement only complicating peace efforts? this is inside story. ah hello and welcome to the program. i am fully bad. people fighting in sudan between forces loyal to 2 generals is threatening to turn into a prolonged conflict. violence erupted in khartoum a week ago that followed weeks of power struggles between army chief abdel fatah bore han and his deputy mohammed, i'm done by gallow, known as a metty,

the commander of the rapid support forces or are safe so far, hundreds of people have been killed in thousands injured, it's led to thousands more fleeing the capital cartoon for neighboring chad. many of them fear this may be the beginning of a much wider conflict. the outside forces are complicating the situation with both sides, receiving support from regional and global powers. we'll get to our guests in a moment, but 1st this report, ah, from chaos to comb. intense street battles have thrown sedans, capital into turmoil in the past few days. its streets are emptying as thousands of people flee cartoon. the conflict is driven by a power struggle between sedans. army led by appeal fatter, albert hon. under rapid support forces a paramilitary group under muhammad hum done a gallow, also known as him. at t,

the 2 generals have been jocelyn for control of the country's economy and its military. that has torn up plans for a ton to civilian rule. through regarding a hug, alarm this destruction in sound of gunfire did not leave room for happiness that our beloved people deserve. we are very sad for this pain, but there's still hope that together will pass this crisis and come out with more united and stronger one, army, one nation. sedans, strategic location on the red sea. and its success to the nile river. and vast gold reserves have long been coveted by other powers leading to both sides, being backed by outside forces. mit accuses egypt of colluding with br hon and sending fighter jets and soldiers to help the sudanese military. egypt has denied the allegations and said its forces were in sudan for

a joint military exercise. him at d has close ties with saudi arabia, the u. a. e and libya and libyan warlord halle for half tower, has reportedly sent military supplies to the rapid support forces, which he denies the russian mercenary organisation. wagner group has also been accused of plundering so don's gold resources to bankroll its operations in ukraine . we don't have that yet information that it has been actively engaged in conflict, but it is of course, in norway it can be denied that it has been somehow behind thought. emma, this organizes among trying to protect. but other such domination schemes, alarms, politics. israel is involved too. it's foreign minister eli cohen has been engaging with, were hon or normalizing ties between the 2 countries. in recent years,

a prolonged conflict would also disrupt plans by u. e. companies to build ports, as well as china's investments incidence. any escalation would have regional implications, threatening that nearby states like salt sudan, that export oil through it's not the neighbor. there will also be a risk of rising numbers of refugees fleeing across borders, causing more instability. and for sudan itself, the longer the conflict goes on, the bigger the risk of it widening and the greater the suffering of its people. felix nora for inside story. oh, well now bring in our guests for today's inside story. joining us from cairo is martin a shed, was a journalist, an analyst covering the middle east and north africa region, in khartoum, sudan,

hollowed. hi, a founding director, ad confluence advisory, a sudan based thinktank. she is also host of spotlight 249 on capital, fm sudan, and in montreal. canada is highly me. danny, associate professor and chair of the african studies program at mcgill university holiday is also author of many political and economic publications on sudan, and one welcome to your thank you for joining us, hollowed in khartoum. let me start with you. if i can, i understand that you've been coordinating safe passage for people to leave cartoon . can you tell us 1st about the current situation on the ground? are people able to leave? and if they are, where they headington it's quite difficult. gut wrenching. this isn't to make whether to stay or to go the risks and considerable risks to both. some people have made the calculation that it's better to stay and wait for a better sort of, you know, exit a more secure exit. and others have decided that it's too dangerous for them to say . and so many a heading southwards towards da 0 straight state on met any streets,

but we just had in the past few hours is that melanie street has seen some crashes between the paramilitary recess and the fit on armed forces has been taken over by the paramilitary forces which makes it difficult for people to traverse mostly because experiences of others. passing checkpoints by the prior military forces say that people have experience looting and people have experienced, you know, be shot at and being sent back. so that is no longer, much of a viable option. have people been able to leave the country and had to chad or other neighboring countries? what consumers buying smack in the middle of to them. and so it's very difficult to get to any of sedans, borders, of course, that on board as many countries. and you said earlier that i was helping people to find safe passage. everyone is doing that as their what's that groups that have been set up towards the fight faces that have been set up,

people are holding each other using most importantly, local resistance committees who know that in the street really well. and it's just the case of, you know, at this point, almost russian roulette. whether you make it through or not hollowed we are discussing today on inside story. the foreign component to the confrontation. are you aware on the ground in sudan of any direct or indirect involvement by regional countries in the current fighting, we've heard reports of libyan warlord halle for half. tar, perhaps sending military support to the power military are safe reports of egypt, sending support to, to the army. what is the extent of outside involvement in the current fighting? well, those of us who have access to the entered who so have access to the entered, have been keeping up with the reporting on what's going on and sit down and increasingly people and you know,

on surprised by the fact that sedans neighbors would get involved for several reasons. one there that there is a history of some of these actors, particularly egypt, favoring south, the united arab emirates, sort of having a working relationships with both the armed forces and the parliamentary forces, but favoring the paramilitary forces. i'm so, you know, there is an awareness of this is happening by now. one would have expected that supplies, particularly for the paramilitary falls, would be dwindling. but that doesn't seem to me the case. so it does track with reporting that there is external engagement. i madison, a shed in cairo. let me come to you, tell us more about the foreign component to the current fighting who supports home and to what end to what are some of these regional powers wanting to get out of sudan? i think, you know, the phone lines right now. look increasingly clear. right. and they're not so different. i think the fault lines of predicted the fighting as well to sac. yeah. nice of forces have always been fame or, and outright,

or to and then coordinated with by egypt and the states back to very, very long history reach data, current leadership and egypt right now. and you know, as a result of such, i think egypt obviously doesn't numbers, interests that they feel is quite ex, essential for them and, and that's on one side that they would like to see economic situation right now. so that's on that side. egypt also of course, has more of a logical sense, but maybe just through long standing partnership. it also just security and conventional sense actually where if use the character security to come through military and military institutions on the other side very quickly. ready you know, obviously committee is, is being supported for long relationship and is this crisis quite a long sense of relationship the marines as well. not as deep as long as egypt,

obviously with the staff military. but still there was partners and providing gold mines there. there's obviously that the mercenaries that was sent to young accordingly. and so it's no surprise. obviously the rates are supporting, puts on, you know, it was under pressure from the marines to try to rain the constituency in, but seems more and more reported as being pressure from one's in that so. okay. i mean, there's that element of it, but common to both of them of stress is that neither actor, regardless of security, interest number, it's obviously the complicated, greatly not in term, not only in terms of finding an eventual settlement, the fire and then hopefully to return to a discussions in terms of everything, i civilian de mac democratic regime. but also these are 2 generals that really are driving on the financial support that they are receiving from the u a. e, on the art of him at the and of course with respect to board hon. logistical and

financial supports from egypt. but i did want to emphasize that overall, it complicates it because of where to dad is joe. graphically, in addition to the financial patronage, we have the red sea area to down is extremely strategically placed. and so if we look at it in a kind of a larger way, what we see over the last few years since them, since the revolution of 2019 is the scrambled over a building enabled, based in port sit down. and that is something that the new way he cares deeply about. they've already invested $6000000000.00, i believe, estimated to build the naval base in port sedan. we have russia, of course, interested in the, in it as well the you and the night state that's conducted military exercises with a u, a e or to that. and we also have china that's interested in that region. so that part of the story is crucial because it gives us the long term and understanding of why sudan is to him. in addition to that, it's important to understand that there are extreme financial investments on the

part of value a, b. and the way, in addition to that, just natural support, a billions of dollars with land to be let me ask you about about the us in charge of ravia. the fine and see is of the sudanese army. and the i said the rapid support forces, who as maps said, lent them fighters for the war in yemen. but now that the war in yemen is winding down, it seems. do you think these 2 sides can get the general to listen? how did i do? i think yes, i think that's a very important point. i do think that that, that since that, that you maybe has thought an exit option in yemen and that the u. e. obviously, of course has meyer itself in yemen and that proved unsuccessful. i think that it's most people acknowledge that at this point they are changing calculations on the part of the united arab emirates. they no longer have that kind of interest in other words, and that he no longer serves the role that he so well for them. in yemen and also of course in libya when they also supported him again,

alongside how studied libya. i think that taxation means that there is a possibility that the u. e. would put pressure on him back to or rather withdraw any kind of support. i do believe that matthews declaration from his part there are other calculations on very much to do with the fact that he had lost the kind of external patronage that he wanted. or we are kind of enjoyed in the past, nor has he been to get the kind of support from you. yeah. that he was counting on from app. yeah. okay, hold on. let me come to you on this. as we've heard from both matt and holly, it's a lot of players outside forces in this conflict, which means a lot of would be mediators, you know, from, from egypt, of course, you a saudi arabia, the russians, even the chinese, to some extent, as you heard how do you think this complicates the solution to, to, to ending the fighting and which of these mediators do you think sandra's chance

that convincing the general to stop the fighting? well, it's complicated massively, you know, the fact that you have these different actors who have different interests in sudan, but also in the region. so for example, the reporting that general have to in libya, is sending troops to support him, etc. and the parameters forces. whereas the egyptians are sending area pools and other types of support to the sit on, on forces on the other side. whereas in libya they're on the same side have that and the depression. and so there's a bit of a sort of cale 16 here, and it makes it very unpredictable. which interests were, went out in which sort of geography. i think when it comes to mediators, it's not a case of choosing one over the other direction right now. yeah. so the thing is, is that that's exactly the point. the leverage is required and not, no one, not even those who have leverage have put leverage on the table, which is why we have had 3 consecutive failed c 5. but the difference have been

able to secure enough of these 5 to lambda flame pick up the soldiers and leave them are all he said they have helped the gypsy and do that and secure the reassurance. so clearly there are avenues for a cease fire. the issue is that all of these actors need to work together. they need to be in lock step with each other, including all the p 5 and russia, china and the u. s. and others. and that we haven't seen that happen. and we've seen a very fragmented international response. okay, matt, you mentioned earlier that it is not in the interests of the saudis or the morality . so have a civilian lead government in sudan. why is that? and does that mean that these 2 countries can not mediate in this conflict? well, let me, let me qualify my statement by saying, i don't think it's the interest of, of pro democracy groups genuine. since you don't have a quote unquote civilian led, which are things you build partnerships of military, you know, personalities,

that lack of control state with civilian basis. so i think we need to use the same terminology that we would use for any western democracy or civilian one or to military control one. and so i don't think regional players are interested at all and a civilian democracy and that's just not exclusive to sedan. i don't think that they're interested in civilian. ready rule anywhere throughout the region, because i think any example of a, particularly one, perhaps in egypt case, it's so close to it. neighborly. as a ripple of facts that can then, you know, obviously encourage a number of other people to envision a different life themselves as well. and so, you know, absolutely, i think this is what i mean i, i, i think from despite the conventional view. ready security from egypt and the ideological more view of security from the upper. it's both of them fear a domino effect accordingly. and rather than, you know, their, their interests and the security regimes. when they see any kind of democratic

example on the russ anywhere and sudan in many ways is actually a democratic example. just maybe not in the sense of the blueprints of the quote unquote nation state. but the spirit of democracy is very much thriving there. and then a lot of the things that balloon mentioned in terms of how these resistance companies are assisting civilians. you know that it's, that's indicative of how that spirit of, of democracy in credibility of actors that are rallying for one another is still existing even um, in the war. all right. ah, holly, your thoughts about this? what are these regional powers, including the emerald sin and saudi arabia, egypt, even? what are they more interested in right now? i stables to donald progress towards establishing a democratic government. was there without question. i agree with you get to 100 percent. they're interested in this table down, but the important question or the question that raises themself, as we say, is, can there be tables to down with one of these generals taking over? and i think the answer is the categorical. no,

i think what the depth of this crisis, what it has demonstrated, even on the part of egypt and saudi arabia, is that a military government in sudan that he's not capable actually of delivering stability. and here we turn to the united states, which i think is important in the congress that or sanctions against the generals of for the united states for good or bad. but the position is that there is no possibility for stability for today. and the region which is even more important to them without returning to some point of civilian government. i think that that you think is enough international pressure has been applied by the us. absolutely not. in fact, as they are americans in congress who are complaining and critic criticizing the biden administration. however, as the crisis deepens and, you know, american citizens are not even, you know, i've taken out of sudan accept stop. i think the criticism in washington is emerging. and unfortunately, the depth of the crisis and it's how it's going to threaten the region,

is pushing the by the administration to try to find that option here. and this has happened in the past, and there is always a possibility. the united states can actually put a pressure particular on saudi arabia, a new a me because actually they were part and parcel of helping to oversee the framework agreement that did not go through. that's key that the final aspect that i'd like to mention is egypt, egypt is absolutely not in the, in a, a transition to, to 1000000000 government. but egypt is making calculation from my miscalculation from my perspective, in the sense that they, they actually are underestimating the influence of the form of members of the national congress party that are backing hon. they feel that that would be on their side. and even though they're the regime at least as opposed to the summer, so to speak, they are estimating the strength and the role of the remnants as we call them to down of the national congress party. here again, we want to talk about a final important source of patronage, and that is the vast well of the national congress party of its members. much of that well, actually is in other countries,

other bank accounts. this is why discussions of targeted sanctions against these 2 general is, i believe, is going to be extremely important is already on the table in congress in the united states. okay, hold your thoughts about this. how did says targeted sanctions against the su general's and he also said something interesting that to don can not be led by either of these 2 generals. if not them, then who or what? i mean, no one here, one either general to rule that has become there was always crystal clear in the way that the pro democracy movement has been pleading with the international community to he'd that call for a fully civilian government. when han and him and he inherited the state from the sheet and started this, you know, sort of domino effect that is good as to where we are. they faced sort of resistance from pro democracy groups at every ton. and it was the political process

and the physical agreement proceeding, the crashes on saturday that really tried to embed military rule into, into sort of a future political dispensation that has been outright rejected by many people in this country. there is a sort of idealism, i think, within the international community that perhaps these journals generals could be reformers, perhaps they could somehow and against all odds midwife, 1000000000 democracy in sudan. everyone is already know that that's not possible. so for me, it's a question of, you know, i think alternatives will emerge. i think we are in this conflict for a while and add this conference, you know, continues. we will see civilian alternative emerge. but what is crystal clear right now, is that neither one of these general, even if one of them worked when militarily will have dismissed the after the 7 complex, in cartoon to be able to govern. so there's actually no stability to be found from either one of them successfully coming out of the match. you sorry about this. what

do you believe is the way out of this current impasse? and who do you think coming back to our initial question? who do you think is best equipped today to mediate a successful resolution to the conflict the way out to the current situation. i fear it's going to be and this is something community in particular western countries are brought about. and so i think failing to pay, sensitive and adequate attention to sudan and being receptive to the new wants of the countries and also the demands of the problem across the movements. they have in a way for their miscalculations and i think through their own timeframe, some interests accelerated, a compensation here between 2 generals. and the reality is for is always easier for them to stop. i would echo loose thoughts and recommendations and calls here that

have to be coordinated efforts. and there might be a rush and, and or for chinese interest here, or the us or whatever it might be. i do think actually the institute, maybe it's the optimism in me, unlike previous crises or a complex, you know, erupt it over the last 10 to 12 years. namely think of, you know, for instance, serial or. ready crane where the security council spence so fundamentally polarized, i do think that so, you know, there are maybe a shared incentive here to contain the crisis. i think we need to think right now in smaller steps and then that should be, you know, pressure him to get immediate cease fire, opening up the manager and corridors and prioritizing for civilian protection. and i do think, you know, obviously the security council would be important because you're going to have a larger partners that are larger countries that are tied to also relations with

egypt and the rates as well. while they argue, as partners, we understand global life as are getting more delivery by the day and to have the pressure and just that the cohesive coordination there, especially with chinese interest with adults. i don't see this expanse that i think there wouldn't be possibility to rain these, these, these countries. and these are the countries that are back in these generals and, and it's a sad reality that they, they need to be rel, then be cooperative in order to put out the fire that they, you know, what gasoline are to begin with. i'm so highlight, i'll give you the last word because we're almost coming to, to the end of our program or your thoughts about how we end the current impasse and what happened if this conflict doesn't end swifty? yes. first of all, i want to echo what my colleagues have said, particularly with respect to the 1st step being dealing with humanitarian crisis. and there is a great deal of experience in terms of pushing towards and continues to push toward

the cease fire and humanitarian quite corridor. as our, as my colleagues, that i do think that we have to focus and do these regional countries. international actors have to focus not only about in the past what they got out of sudan, but what, what they have to lose. and i'm including even european union in terms of the issue of my, of immigration, from sudan, let's say to europe, every country, every region that has been involved directly in this conflict has a great deal to lose. i think that a more coherent kind of cooperation among both regional external actors is extremely important. and here i would reference not only the middle east countries, but actually kind of post conflict african countries like serial and area. and that is that the conflicts have seen as you know, full well i transition to civilian democracy. i think that that model is important than here. i mentioned at the african context because my mutual player, the african union, the african countries who have the most to lose and may not necessarily have the greatest leverage, may must be included as an essential part of the solution. because if their

experience in the african continent actually transitioning post conflict societies into a civilian democracy, we cannot ration african bodies like he got in the african union must be included. thank you very much. thank you. we're going to leave the conversation there. thank you to all 3 of you for such an insightful discussion, 100 hiring car to mot michelle in cairo and holly mcdonny, in montreal. thank you very much. once again and thank you to for watching. you can always watch this program again anytime by visiting our website at all just or dot com for further discussion, go to our facebook page at facebook dot com for slash ha inside story. and of course you can join the conversation on twitter. handle is a j inside story from me fully back to burn the whole keen hearing. don't. thanks for watching bye. for now. the me ah.

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