talk the law will the law, when with neither side, willing to negotiate is the ukraine war becoming a forever war? is america's global leadership, increasingly fragile? what will us politics look like as we had to the presidential election of 2024. the critical look us politics, the bottom line, holding the powerful to account. as we examined the usda's role in the world on al jazeera, the battle in sudan rages on mediation efforts and cease fires have so far failed. can regional powers that back the rival size ring enough pressure to stop the fighting? or is there involvement only complicating peace efforts? this is inside story. ah

hello and welcome to the program. am fully bad. people fighting in sudan between forces loyal to 2 generals is threatening to turn into a prolonged conflict. violence erupted in khartoum a week ago that followed weeks of power struggles between army chief abdel fat albert han and his deputy mohammed, i'm done, dagger law known as the metty, the commander of the rapids support forces or are safe so far, hundreds of people have been killed in thousands injured is led to thousands more fleeing the capital cartoon for neighboring chad. many of them fear this may be the beginning of a much wider conflict. the outside forces are complicating the situation with both sides, receiving support from regional and global powers. we'll get to our guests in a moment, but 1st this report, ah, from chaos to comb. intense st. battles have thrown sedans, capital into turmoil in the past few days. it's streets are emptying us,

thousands of people flee cartoon. the conflict is driven by a power struggle between sedans, army led by abdul fata albert hon. under rapid support forces a paramilitary group under mohammed hummed under gallo, also known as him at t. the 2 generals have been jostling for control of the country's economy and it's military that has torn up plans for a ton to civilian rule who are not allowed in a hug. alarm this destruction in sound of gunfire did not leave room for happiness that our beloved people deserve. we are very sad for this pain, but there still hope that together will pass this crisis and come out of it more. united and stronger one, army, one nation. sedans, strategic location on the red sea, and its success to the nile river. and vast gold reserves have long been coveted by

other powers. leading to both sides, being backed by outside forces, and metty accuses egypt of colluding with br hon and sending fighter jets and soldiers to help the sudanese military. egypt has denied the allegations and said its forces were in sudan for a joint military exercise. hm. at t has close ties with saudi arabia, the u. a. e and libya and libyan warlord halle for half tower, has reportedly sent military supplies to the rapid support forces, which he denies the russian mercenary organizational wagner group has also been accused of plundering. so don's gold resources to bankroll its operations in ukraine. we don't have yet information that it has been actively engaged in

conflict. but it is, of course, in norway it can be denied that it has been somehow behind thought emma disorganized some on trying to protect ourselves domination in so arms politics. israel is involved too. it's foreign minister eli cohen has been engaging with, were hon or normalizing ties. between the 2 countries, in recent years, a prolonged conflict would also disrupt plans by u. e. companies to build ports, as well as china's investments incident. any escalation would have regional implications, threatening near by states like salt sudan, that export oil through it's not the neighbor. there will also be a risk of rising numbers of refugees fleeing across borders, causing more instability. and for sudan itself, the longer the conflict goes on, the bigger the risk of it widening and the greater the suffering of its people.

felix nora for inside story. ah, well, it's now bringing our guests 40 days inside story. joining us from cairo is madison a shed. was a journalist, an analyst covering the middle east and north africa region, in khartoum, sudan, hollowed high founding director, ad confluence advisory a sudan based thinktank. she's also whole staff spotlight 249 on capital, fm sudan and in montreal. canada is holly me, danny associate professor and chair of the african studies program at mcgill university. khalid is also author of many political and economic publications on sudan, a one welcome to your thank you for joining us, hollowed in cartoon. let me start with you. if i can, i understand that you've been coordinating safe passage for people to leave cartoon . can you tell us 1st about the current situation on the ground? are people able to leave? and if they are where they headington, it's quite

a difficult gut wrenching decision to make, whether to stay or to go the risks and considerable risks to both. some people have made the calculation that it's better to stay and wait for a better sort of, you know, exit a more secure exit. and others have decided that it's too dangerous for them to say . and so many a heading southwards towards disastrous straight date on met any streets. but we just had, in the past few hours, is that melanie street has seen some crashes between the paramilitary recess and the fit on armed forces has been taken over by the paramilitary forces, which makes it difficult the people to each of us mostly because experiences of others passing checkpoints by the primary forces, say that people have experience looting and people have experienced, you know, be shot at and being sent back. so that is no longer, much of a viable option. have people been able to leave the country and had to chad or

other neighboring countries while consumers buying smack in the middle of to them. and so it's very difficult to get to any of sedans, borders, of course, that on board as many countries. and you said earlier that i was helping people to find safe passage. everyone is doing that as there. what's the groups that have been set up towards the 5 faces that have been set up? people are holding each other using most importantly, local resistance committees who know that the street really well. and it's just the case of, you know, at this point, almost russian roulette. whether you make it through or not hollowed we are discussing today on inside story. the foreign component to the confrontation, are you aware on the ground in sudan of any direct or indirect involvement by regional countries. in the current fighting, we've heard reports of libyan warlord. highly for half tart, perhaps sending military support to our the paramilitary. i. safe reports of egypt

sending support to, to the army. what is the extent of outside involvement in the current fighting? well, those of us who have access to the entered, who still have access to the entered, have been keeping up with reporting on what's going on in sedan and increasingly people and you know, on surprised by the fact that sedans neighbors would get involved for several reasons. one there that there is a history of some of these actors, particularly egypt, favoring south, the united arab emirates, sort of having working relationships with both the armed forces and the parliamentary forces, but favoring the paramilitary forces. i'm so, you know, there is an awareness of this is happening by now. one would have expected that supplies, particularly for the parent military force, would be dwindling. but that doesn't seem to be the case. so it does track with reporting that there is external engagement. i madison, a shed in cairo. let me come to you, tell us more about the foreign component to the current fighting who supports home

and to what end to what are some of these regional powers wanting to get out of sudan? i think, you know, the phone lines right now, look increasingly clear. right. and they're not so different. i think the fault lines of predicted, the fighting as well to nice forces have always been favored and rights forces and then coordinated with by egypt and the states back to a very, very long history reach dates back, current leadership and egypt right now. and you know, as a result of such, i think egypt obviously that the numbers interests that they feel is quite substantial for them. and that's on one side that they would like to secure. i mean, most notably. ready grad, renaissance, and obviously, you know, each of our forces coordinated with a number of military trail last,

their muscles in the past. and i think is also the economic side that egypt has benefited from a number of kind of cheap produce and trade. both armies controlling amounts of 3rd domestic economies. that partnership. ready then come a lifeline for each as well. considering it's very difficult economic situation right now. so that's on that side. egypt also of course has more logical sense, but maybe just through long standing partnership. it also security and conventional sense actually where if use of the character security to come through military and military institutions on the other side very quickly. ready you know, obviously committee is, is being supported. forget i had a long relationship in this crisis, quite a long sense of relationship the marines as well. and as long as egypt obviously. ready with the staff military, but still there was partners and providing gold mines there. there's obviously the

mercenaries that was sent to young and accordingly. and so it's no surprise. obviously the rates are supporting hey mitzy in this fight, i think both civil magically and then. and you know, reportedly and to be in the you know, militarily as well, right. so so, so i think, but just to conclude very quickly, there's the ideological prism in the way that the cameras view security, which i think is very different than why, how each options use security. most people understand what you're doing this, but for the cameras, i think there's, there's quite a very fundamental fear. i think for them of, you know, obviously you know, the remnants of the shears islamist loyalists, particularly i think they'd give her hans, particularly under pressure for them. there was reports for hon. and, you know, it was under pressure from the cameras to try to rain the constituency in but seems more and more importantly that he is being pressure from when in that so. okay. i

mean there's that element of it, but common to both of them of stress is that neither actor, regardless of how they view security interests for them, or it's obviously doesn't want to ripple effect of political islam in any way. but neither of them want a civilian democratic movement. and as a result of the 2 groups they back, but we'll get to that. we'll get to that in a moment, matt, i just want to bring highlight into the conversation and ask you, highlight about your thoughts about why some of these regional powers are involved in this conflict and, and how you think they're involved meant a country. i keep saudi arabia or the u. e as mat mentioned. how does it complicates the conflict? what is complicated, greatly not in term, not only in terms of finding an eventual settlement the buyer and then hopefully to, to return to a discussions and terms of overlapping. i civilian demand, democratic regime, but also these are to generals that really are driving on the financial support that they are receiving from the u a. e,

on the art of him at the and of course with respect to board hon. logistical and financial supports from egypt, but i did want to emphasize that overall it complicates it because of where to dad is jo, graphically, in addition to the financial patronage, we have the red sea area to down is extremely strategically placed. and so if we look at it in a kind of a larger way, what we see over the last few years since them, since the revolution of 2019 is the scramble over building a label base in port to down. and that is something that the new way he cares deeply about. they've already invested $6000000000.00, i believe, estimated to build the naval base in port sedan. we have russia, of course, interested in the, in it as well the you and the nice state that's conducted military exercises with a u, a e or to that. and we also have china that's interested in that region. so that part of the story is crucial because it gives us the long term and understanding of why you guys saw him. in addition to that,

it's important to understand that there are extreme financial investments on the part of value a, b. and the way, in addition to that, it just natural support a billions of dollars with land to be. let me ask you about about that the you a child, your ravia are the fine and she is of the sudanese army. and the i said the rapid support forces, who as maps said, lent them fighters for the war in yemen. but now that the war in yemen is winding down, it seems, do you think these 2 sides can get the generals to listen? how did i do? i think, yes, i think that's a very important point. i do think that that, that since s w a, b, a has thought, an exit option in yemen. and that the u. e. obviously, of course has meyer itself in yemen and proved unsuccessful look, i think that it's a most people acknowledge that at this point, they are changing calculations on the part of united arab emirates, they no longer have that kind of interest. in other words, connecting no longer serves the role that he served so well for them in yemen. and

also, of course, in libya, when did they also supported him again, alongside how studied libya. i think that calculation means that there is a possibility that the u. e. would put pressure on, came back to or rather withdraw any kind of support. i do believe that matthew desperation from his part there are other calculations on very much to do with the fact that he had lost the kind of external patronage that he wanted or kind of enjoyed in the past. nor has he been to get the kind of support from pierre that he was counting on from app. yeah. okay, let me come to you on this. as we've heard from both matt and holly, it's a lot of play as outside forces in this conflict. which means a lot of would be mediators, you know, from, from egypt, of course, the, you, a saudi arabia, the russians, even the chinese, to some extent, as you heard, how do you think this complicates the solution to, to,

to ending the fighting. and which of these mediators do you think sounds a chance that convincing the general to stop the fighting? well, it's complicated massively, you know, the fact that you have these different actors who have different interest in to down, but also in the region. so for example, the reporting that general have to, in libya, is sending troops to support him, etc. and the parameters forces. whereas the directions are sending, area pulls and other types of support to the sit on, on forces on the other side. whereas in libya, they're on the same side have that and the depression. and so there's a bit of a sort of chaotic scene here and it makes it very unpredictable which interests were went out and what sort of job are free? i think when it comes to mediators, it's not a case of choosing one over the other direction right now. yeah. so the thing is, is that that's exactly the point that leverage is required and not, no one, not even those who have leverage have put leverage on the table,

which is why we have had 3 consecutive failed seas 5. but the difference have been able to secure enough of these 5 to lambda flame pick up the soldiers and lead them are all he said that they have helped the gypsy and do that and secure that they reassure. so clearly there are avenues for thief via the issue is that all of these actors need to work together. they need to be in lock step with each other, including all the p 5 and russia, china and the u. s. and others. and that we haven't seen that happen and we've seen a very fragmented international response. okay. you mentioned earlier that it is not in the interests of the saudis, or the morality to have a civilian lead government in sudan. why is that? and does that mean that these 2 countries can not mediate in this conflict? well, let me, let me qualify my statement by saying, i don't think it's the interest of, of pro democracy groups genuine. since you don't have a quote unquote civilian led, which are things you've been isn't build partnerships of military,

no personalities, that lack of control state with civilian basis. so i think we need to use the same terminology that we would use for any western democracy or civilian one or to military control one. and so i don't think regional players are interested at all a civilian democracy and that's just not exclusive to sedan. i don't think that they're interested in civilian. ready rule anywhere throughout the region, because i think any example of a, particularly one, perhaps in egypt case, it's so close to a neighborly as a ripple of facts that can then, you know, obviously encourage a number of other people to envision a different life for themselves as well, and so, you know, absolutely, i think this is what i mean i, i, i think from, despite the conventional view of security from egypt and the ideological more view of security from the embers, both of them fear a domino effect accordingly. and rather than, you know, their, their interests and the security regimes,

when they see any kind of democratic example on the russ anywhere. and sudan in many ways is actually a democratic example. just maybe not in the sense of the blueprints of the quote unquote nation state, but the spirit of democracy is very much thriving there. and then a lot of the things that hello mentioned in terms of how these resistance companies are assisting civilians. you know that it's, that's indicative of how that spirit of democracy in credibility of actors that are rallying for one another is still existing even um, in the war. all right, holly, do you have thoughts about this? what are these regional powers, including the emerald sin and saudi arabia, egypt, even? what are they more interested in right now? i stables to donald progress towards establishing a democratic government. was there without question? i agree with you, i guess 100 percent. they're interested in this table, sudan, but the important question or the question that raises themself, as we say, is, can there be as tables to down with one of these generals taking over?

and i think the answer is the categorical. no, i think what the depth of this crisis, what it has demonstrated, even on the part of egypt and saudi arabia, is that a military government in sudan that is not capable actually of delivering stability . and here we turn to the united states, which i think is important than the congress that or sanctions against the generals of for the united states for good or bad. but the position is that there is no possibility for stability for today in the region, which is even more important to them without returning to some point of civilian government. i think that that you think is enough international pressure has been applied by the us. absolutely not, in fact, as they are, americans in congress who are complaining and critic criticizing the biden administration. however, at death, the crisis deepens and, you know, american citizens are not even, you know, i take it out of 2000 accept staff. i think the criticism in washington is emerging, and unfortunately the depth of the crisis and it's how it's going to threaten the

region, is pushing the by the administration to try to find that option here. and this has happened in the past, and there is always a possibility. the united states can actually put a pressure particular on saudi arabia and you a me because actually they were part and parcel of helping to oversee the framework agreement that did not go through. that's key that the final aspect that i'd like to mention is egypt, egypt is absolutely not in the, in a, a transition to, to 1000000000 government. but egypt is making calculation from my miscalculation from my perspective, in the sense that they, they actually are under estimating the influence of the form, members of the national congress parties that are backing hon. they feel that on would be on their side. and even though their, their regime at least as opposed to the summer so to speak, they are estimating the strength and the role of the remnants as we call them to down of the national congress party. here again, we want to talk about the final important source of patronage, and that is the vast well of the national congress party and its members. much of

that well actually is in other countries, other bank accounts. this is why discussions of targeted sanctions against these 2 general is, i believe, is going to be extremely important is already on the table in congress in the united states. okay, hold your thoughts about this. how did says targeted sanctions against the su general's and he also says something interesting that so don, can not be led by either of these 2 generals. if not them, then who or what? i mean, no one here, one either general to rule that has become there was always crystal clear in the way that the pro democracy movement has been pleading with the international community to he'd that call for a fully civilian government. when han and him and he inherited the state from the sheet and started this, you know, sort of domino effect that is good as to where we are. they faced sort of resistance from pro democracy groups at every ton. and it was the political process

and the physical agreement proceeding, the crashes on saturday that really tried to embed military rule into, into sort of a future political dispensation that has been outright rejected by many people in this country. there is a sort of idealism, i think, within the international community that perhaps these journals generals could be reform and perhaps they could somehow and against all odds midwife as civilian democracy in sudan, everyone is already know that that's not possible. so for me, it's a question of, you know, i think alternatives will emerge. i think we're in this conflict for a while and add this conference, you know, continues. we will see civilian alternative emerge. but what is crystal clear right now, is that neither one of these general, even if one of them worked when militarily will have dismissed the after the 7 complex, in cartoon to be able to govern. so there's actually no stability to be found from

either one of them successfully coming out of the match. you sorry about this. what do you believe is the way out of this current impasse? and who do you think coming back to our initial question? who do you think is best equipped today to mediate a successful resolution to the conflict the way out to the current situation. i fear it's going to be and this is something community in particular western countries are brought about. and so i think failing to pay, sensitive and adequate attention to sudan and being receptive to the new wants of the countries. and also the demands of the problem offers the movements they have in a way to their miscalculations and i think through their own timeframe, some interest accelerated compensation here between 2 generals. and the reality is or is always easier for them to stop that. i would echo loose thoughts and

recommendations and calls here that have to be coordinated efforts. and there might be a russian and or for chinese interest here, or the us or whatever it might be. i do think actually in sudan, maybe it's the optimism in me, unlike previous crises or conflicts erupted over the last 10 to 12 years, namely think of, you know, for instance, syria or ukraine where the security council spence so fundamentally polarized. i do think that there are maybe a shared incentive here to contain the crisis. i think we need to think right now in smaller stuff, and then that should be, you know, pressuring to get immediate cease fire, opening up to manager and corridors, and prioritizing for civilian protection. and i do think, you know, obviously the security council would be important because you're going to have a larger partners that are larger countries that are tied to also relations with

egypt and the rates as well. while they argue as partners, we understand global life as are getting more delivery by the day and to have the pressure and just cohesive and coordination there, especially with chinese interests with the robe. they don't see the expanse. think there, there would be a possibility to rein these, these, these countries. and these are the countries that are backing these generals, and it's a salary ality that they need to be relevant to be cooperative in order to put out the fire they, you know, put gasoline are to begin with. i'm so highlight, i'll give you the last word because we're almost coming to, to the end of our program. are your thoughts about how we end the current impasse and what happened if this conflict as an end, swifty? yes. first of all, i want to echo what my colleagues have said, particularly with respect to the 1st step being dealing with humanitarian crisis. and there is a great deal of experience in terms of pushing towards and continues to push toward

the cease fire and humanitarian quite corridor. as our, as my colleagues, that i do think that we have to focus and do these regional countries. international actors have to focus not only about in the past what they've got out of sudan, but what, what they have to lose. and i'm including even european union in terms of the issue of my, of immigration, from sudan, let's say to europe, every country, every region that has been involved directly in this conflict has a great deal to lose. i think that a more coherent kind of cooperation among both regional external actors is extremely important. and here i would reference not only the middle east countries, but actually kind of post conflict applicant countries like serial and area. and that is that the conflicts have seen as you know, full well i transition to civilian democracy. i think that that model is important than here. i mentioned at the african context because regional players can union the african countries who have the most to lose. and may not necessarily have the

greatest leverage, may must be included as an essential part of the solution. because if their experience in the african continent actually transitioning post conflict societies into a civilian democracy, we cannot ration african bodies like he got in the african union must be included. thank you very much. thank you. we're going to leave the conversation. they thank you to all 3 of you for such an insightful discussion. hollywood hire in cartoon madness shed in cairo, and holly mcdonny in montreal. thank you very much once again and thank you to for watching. you can always watch this program again anytime by visiting our website at all j 0 dot com for further discussion, go to our facebook page at facebook dot com for slash ha inside story. and of course you can join the conversation on twitter. handle is a j inside story from me fully back to burn the whole team hearing don't. thanks for watching bye. for now. the me

ah this is an enormous emergency for literally billions of the world's population earth rise explores how different fades across the globe are rallying communities. we are actually focus caretaker's of the earth in a mission to rebuild our broken relationship with the planet. if we can mobilize that huge proportion of the world's population and we got really great stats. the sco believing in change on al jazeera, the 1st commander of the lebanese army after independence from france,

who took over as president at the time of crisis in a deeply divided country. 50 years after his death, al jazeera will told the story at you, her architect, as the modern lebanese states, the soldiers statesman on a j 0. ah, i'm sammy's a than in doha with a look at the headlines here. now jesse right now, the sudanese army says it will help foreign diplomatic staff evacuate the country as fighting between the army and the rapid support forces. and this is 2nd week. personnel at the saudi arabian mission are reported to have already left. several countries are evacuating citizens from savannah's fighting between the army and the rapid support forces continues. have a morgan.