the resulting anger, well, i'm hoping we can use it as the fuel to change society for the better musical innovative brian ino meets renowned economies, hardoon chang, part team. i pulled myself up the funniest economist in the world. i don't have any competition to dp unscripted on al jazeera, china was the philippines and made increasing rivalry with the u. s. one manila, grants washington more military bases. so how's the philippines going to strike a balance in his relations with this isn't a story. ah hello, welcome to the program. i'm him. ron con. china's foreign minister has just wrapped up a visit to the philippines. it was a meeting between neighbors, not only with

a history of deep economic ties, but also of long running territorial disputes. the 2 ministers have pledged to work together to resolve their differences. the visit was the latest in a series of high level meetings between the philippines and china and the united states, who are all vying for the upper hand in the asia pacific. we'll unpack this with our gas shortly, but 1st, alexandra buyers begins our coverage. china's foreign minister arrived in manila hoping to strengthen what he called a millennia old tradition of friendship. jingle met his counterpart as well as president ferdinand marcos. junior. they've pledged to work together to resolve territorial disputes in the south china sea. anton, would he, amid the fluid and turbulent regional situation, a healthy, unstable china philippines relationship is not only meeting the aspirations of our 2 peoples with you, but also in line with the common aspirations of regional countries. so i hope that today meeting will give us an opportunity to follow through on the plans and games

made for our prior countries reason, high level inter options and make some headway in addressing common issues and challenges. the meetings happened as the united states and philippines are staging . the largest joint military drills they've ever conducted the exercises called belly cotton, which means shoulder to shoulder, involve nearly $18000.00 troops and are due to run until the end of the month. this year's bollock aton will be the biggest ever an indication of the growth of our alliance and how it continues to evolve to meet our shared goals. washington and manila recently agreed to resume joint patrols in the south china sea. the deal also gives us forces access to for more philippine army bases, including one near taiwan. something that has angered china. beijing considers the

self governing island its own and earlier in april, conducted military exercises, practicing precision targeting and simulating what it called. the encirclement of taiwan. president marcos has denied the philippines could be used as a launching pad by the us and promised on saturday to improve communication with china, but as regional tensions simmer. the question is just how long he'll be able to maintain that balance. alexandra buyer's al jazeera for inside story. ah, so more on this, let's bring in our guess a in hanoi is richard a he, darren, he's an academic and also a book such as asia, new battlefield, us china. and the struggle for the western pacific in washington dc is gregory polling director of the se, asia program and asia maritime transparency initiative at the center for strategic

and international studies. and andrew lung is a china policy analyst. you joins us from hong kong, a warm welcome to you all. i'd like to begin in hanoi where that richard, hey, darren, richard. the biggest military exercise of the u. s. and the philippines of overtaken place manila, now promising more military bases with in the philippines itself. for the u. s. and now you have the chinese foreign minister visiting is this a case of too little too late for the chinese? are they trying to play catch up, ma'am? right. i mean, on the one hand, the philippines is kind of in a strategic sweet spot where i think it has a better bargaining position when it comes to dealing with china. because right now we have revitalized our lives with united states in ways that we didn't do in the past 6 years or so on, their former president to go to therapy. i think what's happening here is the philippines is correcting on their president marcus junior, the excessive and fruitless plantation which china, when he had a situation to write, present that the, you know, did not assert our arbitration case. and it's all trying to see

a trying to downgrade or kind of undermine our allies with united states. and he was offered billions of dollars investments in china. and yet after 6 years of that, they're just presidency. not much concrete, big ticket infrastructure, investment gaming from china. and to make matters worse, actually the situation to solve, trying to see where the philippines and china have mark them. this is often deteriorated. so president markets, union furnace theme tried to give this relationship with chinese tribes in fucking piece at, at china earlier this year in january. but if you look at the long joint statement that came out practically, no serious construction is from china. what are on infrastructure investments? a lot of them were played strapped and debt dropped, nor was there any concessions from china to sell china's the front. so the philippines to realizing that it doesn't have much of a bargaining position because of the china. and i think that's how the fruitless people store chinese now going back these traditional allies. so what is a lesson for china? the lesson for china is that you cannot out the philippines on the chip. if you want, have a better relationship with the philippines. you have to offer something completely to us literally concretely in terms of investments, but also more importantly,

when it comes to the territory, disputes in the south china sea. andrew, would you agree with that? you can't have a relationship with china con, have relationship with the philippines on the cheap that it needs to be fruitful. the wood that that richard use was fruitless. would you agree with any of that? well 1st of all, you look, look at the relationship is not just between the philippines and china. it is between china and the united states and involving the south china sea and taiwan. a much bigger picture than just relationship between philippines and. ready china, i'm not supposed to get that. the philippines has called a defense and kind of agreement. and we just, we deal and i think every couple of years and, and, and under the agreement the united states is given access to different assets or in a bit. it seems that recently. ready this agreement and some sort of

a court has been, which were the united states trying to play both sides. so in other words, a philippines would like to benefit from the u. s. military presence as the count will against china. but of course, the bill is not in the philippines interest to provoked a regional war or over time on all the other waters. because the media that you would pinch on and using the philippines as a collateral damage. that would be very serious for, for a bit of ins. and i'll, water seems that there is not a sweet spot. is a very dangerous and delicate sport. because by allowing american military presence in the philippines in case that there is a, a war over taiwan example, this s s american military as a globalized and was subject to retaliation military retaliation from beijing.

they're using, besides all other bomb and voting for the philippines. nation and, and people. so i think that's very delicate for a gregory, i will come to you just a 2nd, but we're just want to push andrew on one of his points. and right now, right now, at this moment it's the us that are winning this relationship. the philippines is not china, that billions of dollars worth investment, the china promised and a successive governance, philippines didn't materialize. so right now the u. s. does have the upper hand in the philippines over china. surely that's what it looks like. yes, i think the united states, of course, has got an upper hand. and literally, as i said, there was a president, a court would have been a law which has been lasting for water quite quite a number of years already. and an american and the united states and deploy

military as us in the philippines. and although the recent kind of negotiations between the bid against the united states and in some sort of agreement to continue to allow the american access to this military as, as, as inside a bit of pins. what i'm trying to say is that while the united states has got a leverage over the philippines, as united states does not necessarily have leverage over china, because let's not forget aid. the child's name is been and is larger than the united states in terms of numbers, but certainly the waters in. ready over time on straight and as much nearer to china than the united states. and of course, china has got the anti access area, denial, missiles, or aircraft killing designs, and also remote control, drones and underwater acids that can meet in the intervention body

united states. but on the other hand, there's no formula to prove to prevent a whole war, and when it, when a full war happens, immediately as, as is on, it could be called on to damage. that's the one in front of it. well, let's bring in a group polling here. we've just been talking about navy. we're talking about maritime, clearly the philippines and archipelago of islands. but these are 2 countries that cannot actually agree on even what to call it. china calls at the start trying to see the philippines calls at the west philippine see it's crucial what's going on when it comes to the maritime when it comes to the both navies in the area now. yeah. look at absolutely. i think we, when we talk about the golden alliance, when we talk about the enhanced cooperation agreement, the expansion of us access that open basis. and you said, why is all this happening? and the answer is the south, tennessee and the inability or unwillingness and aging, to recognize that it policies in the south, tennessee,

or to west hope. and he push miller to this point. i think it's a fundamental problem right now between beijing and manila, because from the philippines point of view is responding to external threats from china. from china's point of view, the philippines has no agency. it's not making any of its own decisions isn't due, but the americans are when you the cortex ordinarily offensive developing policy makers. that means that the 2 sides are talking across from each other. richard, is this a strategic mistake on behalf of the philippines. what andrew was saying is that okay, they might be the power in the philippines right now, but the u. s. doesn't control china. china ultimately is its own person, its own man. so you're making mistakes. i mean, yeah, i appreciate the thought the greg mission, a very important or at strategic agency. i had lost that our friend in china mention our uncle mentioned that this is really just about us in china as if none of us monitoring the reason it's just about them. i don't think that's true. i think a lot of us have agency disorder fusion, where all summer in states who want to make decisions accordingly. what i also find

very interesting is what i called strategic gas lighting. uh huh. as far as provocation is concerned, the threat is not going from the philippines. the philippines is not threatening china or taiwan, nor is the united states the threat of invasion of time when it's going from china . the bullying happening to west philippines, your assault trenice or whatever you want to call it. it's not from the philippines, it's not from the united states. so countries like the philippines gave you the chance author there though, we were, we had the, we should have got the gold medal for loyalty to china. we did the best we could do on their present that to make the situation better for china. and yet we really didn't get much in exchange. so i think right now china has to do some soul searching. you know, they may have to biggest or maybe in this part of the world. but you know, us is not alone. us as japan, they're us not south korea, their u. s. i was australia there, it's not just the philippines. and by doing the philippines is just trying to be in a position of preparation. and philippines wants to help efforts in the region to deter invasion of fi one because i want is closer to the philippines than most of his asian countries. and the philippines also wants to expedite the modernization

of his armed forces by bitter allies with the united states. but let's, let's not make any mistake. markers junior does not want to just side with the u. s . against china. he just wants to strengthen these countries position. i think we still want to have the best possible relationship. we can, how we china. but it's a given se. and if china cannot even accept the philippines agency and just see us as a puppet of america, good luck with that. gregory. but post the 2nd world war, the philippines did have a pretty great relationship with both china and with the u. s. in fact, it's prided itself as being one of the places that can tool to all of the soup of house, including regional superpowers. so as something going wrong here, your thing since deter, say, was empowered. you think something has broken yet, not just sense. do they mean that you write that from the mid 19 seventies when tiger norm lives under marco, senior on the philippines did pursue very positive relations with china until the 990 s. and in the 99. if you began to see the acceleration of the south seas

occupied mister free in the philippine economic zone, it began more frequently harassing. she'll you know, fisher to scarborough shawl, was the philippines had administered since the end of world war 2. and that really took off under the aquino government with the seizure, scarborough, and then the island building campaign to call it international headlines. so what you see in public opinion polling and lead opinion, poland, is that china has gone from being seen as a partner in a economic opportunity in the philippines to be seen as an external threat. first and foremost, andrew, let me bring you in here. what we're talking about, i want to talk to you about hierarchy. china, obviously a very big power has huge influence in africa, has huge influence in south asia. has investments all over the world. practically. how important is the philippines to china? well, i think of the philippines as a friend arrived and as a baby, there was

a great, a relationship between the philippines and china, as evidenced by the recent visit by president michaels to beijing, and this relationship been solid fire. but what i'm trying to say is that the bins and by allowing the ss wouldn't side could have been to be used by a new american military that was subject to so to the risks. and the possibility that in case of a war happening over the sometimes see over at the region, those mutually as inside of it could jeopardize the security and safety. ready of the philippine people because it was subject to bartman by i'm a nation by china now, but let's look at the risks are also to war. and actually, it doesn't want a war over the south side of c and china does want to taiwan to be united with

china peacefully. this is endorsed by 3 and the serial white paper published by beijing. the last one, each of the following, the nancy pelosi was it all straightened, the preference for peaceful unification. but the fact remains that most time on people do not want in a vacation, but not to do. most of them want independence. they want to maintain the status quo, but while the united states is trying to play, the one con, tried to create more and more diplomatic space. but i want to play as if time one was a separate country. ready and also allowing more and more senior american leaders to visit taiwan as if taiwan was a separate country. so does it strike of hollowing out and the one time china policy and is anti once the allowed to declare for independence that was triggered a rule. so i think that this more in, as far as the philippines is concerned,

is not a party to which, but unfortunately by allowing the american military s as inside of good events, these answers could well be used by the united states. a. ready for this war and, and by using this been military as. busy it was subject the philippines to bombard by and retaliation by my beijing in case such a war happens. this is one time say gregory, there is an interesting parallel to be drawn here. and i want to talk about russia and ukraine, one of the warnings that the russians gave the ukrainians was, don't get too close to nato. you know, one of the warnings they gave the west was, this is in our sphere of influence. just do not get involved here. this is, this is russian sphere influence china seems to be doing the same thing with the south china seas. it seems we saying to the west to nato, to america, that this is our sphere of influence. we're talking about taiwan. they always

mentioned i one is andrew, just did this. a dangerous precedent is a dangerous time. you could be walking blindly into a conflict. the u. s. could blunder into a conflict. surely, i don't think the u. s. is pollyanna ish here. i think the by the ministration understands that the read the risk of the accidental escalation across the street is not just one street in the south and see an east tennessee on the indian border is getting increasingly high. and a large part of that is because of aging and willingness to compromise on any of these issues with neighbors. every us there is a balancing act. your want to put a guard rails maintains for communication, prevent escalation, the u. s. also, you know, a lot of demand signals are right and it has to respond if it wants to can, can be seen as the partner choice as a provider. so when the building comes knocking on american doors and says, we need help because trying to keep trying to start our troops out,

it was brightly islands every 6 weeks. the us has to say yes, when your pan complains when india complains, when korea complains, vietnam complains, they come to the us as a balance or, and i'd come back to the point i made earlier. one of the funding problems here is you ask china about the philippines and china want to talk about i was trying to refuses to recognize that the philippines had any legitimate reason to fear, trying, trying to, hadn't done anything over the last decade to drive the philippines. to the efficient richard, we are talking about one because it has been brought up. you are talking about the idea of the philippines. is this over a nation that it should be able to develop relations with any country once. but the bottom line is, is that chinese go to priority, it's taiwan. and by allowing the americans and you'll walking a dangerous path. well, i will also want to mention that title and also has an agency, right? so i think andrew correctly pointed out the also to watch out to where they're

going to elect soon. they're going to have a presidential election very soon. so let's hope that on the part of the 51, also there played their carts well so that they don't give anyone any excuse to do anything crazy or out of the box. now speaking of the philippines, the reality is that they're just too geographically close to tie one odd to sit this all of course. and at the same time we're us ala. we cannot be neutral because a lot of wargames suggest that including oregon, i think, conducted by rigor pollings is due from lester, suggest that saga, anti one's surest would be one point of entry for a potential chinese kinetic accent. and that's just over 100. not got miles from some of the philippine basis in mongolia in full. got. i'm on motors, by the way. we didn't open the spaces to america or not yet, but the reality is that the philippines is just close. it is too much close to close to the taiwan theater theater to be a neutral and where are you? as i said, we're not going to be addressed. so imagine situation. there's a war between us and china. american troops are getting killed or wounded and we say we're neutral. so that's why in i'm in recognition of that potential nightmare

situation. what we want to do, i think that's what marketers was pleased to prepare for that. and hopefully by having a collective strong stance together with us. but also we define them orders be terry china from even invading by one because i think that's a lesson we are drawing from ukraine. the reason why you green was invaded was because it was not backed up enough. ukraine had more defense cooperation or assurances from denito from the u. s. i think russia would have thought twice. and i think china's way more rational, less, more aggressive and reckless and rush hour with the instructor. so i think if the philippines are buying us plato cardwell to integrated the term strategy, perhaps we can deter or make trying to think twice about any kid that kinetic option in the near future. after all, even andrew said, china doesn't want war to, but we have to prepare for it. if you want peace, you have to prepare for war. i mean, andrew, china isn't looking for war. i mean, i think we can confidently say that, but it might have been easier just to buy the philippines off. committed. wouldn't

that wouldn't china just commit to the billions of dollars it promised the previous government in investment? as i pointed out, and philippines is a and it is within this a regional, comprehensive economic partnership of the world's largest trading block accounting for a 3rd of the world g. p. a thought it was a very pins of courses and very important trading partner, but less that but that cannot be used. and s m to override china's territorial and interest, particularly over time on. so you push, push comes to the show and, and the american s, as in a very bins, are being used in such a war. and the philippines would necessarily be dragged in, not because china wants it, but because of the presence of these american and military assets in as it is now,

as far as the ukraine situation is concerned, that there is a perception in beijing that the united states was the approval china into taking untimely action so that charlie could be dragged into a ukrainian type meyer. and so as. ready to arrest charles rise and to. ready thought a development trajectory, beijing is to credit for that. i don't believe a gym would be drawn to do it because the aging is of fully military prepare in terms of for anti access areas, denial and drones, and aircraft, and walter navy. and over the time on straight case and eventually it actually happens, but beijing doesn't want that big ones, as i said, people in a vacation. so i think the beijing has got to patients the danger, but a bit of bins is that even though it would like to remain neutral,

it would likely risk being. busy drawn into it and where the navy, in case a venture out of the app, gregory polling the u. s. does have a card to play it. right. no one wants to be dragged into a wool. but the u. s. wants to make sure that the philippines is a strategic friend, a strategic assa, when it comes to military bases. so there's a way for both china and for the us to co exist within the philippines itself. and that's simply by doing what they're doing, keeping the status quote, is that something that the government is taking seriously b u. s. government? i think it's absolutely correct when you look at the fee is made by the secretary to parker and defense in last week when they were in washington for the $2.00 plus to meeting with us counterparts. they both stress time and time again that they was relations, economic relations with china, and a closer military lines with the americans. and they see that as key to the philippines independent farm, which is not the same as neutrality. but it means the philippines gets to make its

own decision. it is not beholden to u. s. or teacher gave me and their american counterparts and time again, we get it. we, we agree we support that. the real question though is, is the current status quo actually stable? and while we thank so much about the taiwan strait for obvious reasons. the fact is that every few weeks, filipino host are ships getting violently harassed by a chinese vessel in the south, tennessee. that's where the status quo is likely to bridge. and so i think china cannot maintain its current hyper aggressive officer in the south and see and expect the philippines not continue to drive closer to the americans. richard, how dare, and we are running out of time, but i do want to end with you this idea of the status quo, which is clearly will philippines is doing. it's managing a relationship between china and the between the united sites. but that's going to take a lot of political skill. does this government have that political skill?

i don't think i want to watch for market junior yet, but i think has gone far better than many people expected from him. the other year . expectation of most so called experts was that marcus junior would be kind of like to target to point, they'll finish off what the article dot, which is essentially making the philippines like a fossil state of china and a very unreliable or just that kind of fast, superficial ali the u. s. and yet that's not what's happened. i think markers junior, he's someone who was part of his father's efforts of normal listening. dicey china backing to fe, 19 seventies. he has a lot of experience with job qualities on a personal level and that he and he has many, many good advice to seraphim. so i'm cautiously optimistic that he will not be foolish enough to provoke china, but also not foolish enough to do what he's pre, desegregate. therefore, i think what you will do is to constantly hedge, if that lies with the united states strong enough so that we're not too weak. and we have bargaining position. we china, but his st on not to make it too strong and to in your face. so that it will undermine our diplomatic, has all the relations with china. it's going to be absolutely difficult,

but their hope is it will work because if it doesn't work, all of us are going to be troubled by the way i'm here. but i mean get on right now, and our hope is not only philippines, but philippines would work with other other countries with similar concerns. we china so that we can have an effective collective front in dealing with it. that's why the role of ours young is also very important in how we address this progress in this part of the world. i want to thank o guest, richard. hi, darren, greg, upholding and andrew lung. and i want to thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, is there a dot com unfulfilled, further discussion. rather, let's go to our facebook page at facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. and you can also join the conversation on twitter. handle is at ha, inside story from me him, ron kon, and the whole team head with ah,

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