in the wilderness of northern scandinavia, a sammy activist fights for indigenous rights with a needle and thread. after 4 decades of her historic struggle against the establishment, the nomadic, some people now face their greatest threat. climate change. witness stitches for stop me on al jazeera. ah, china was the philippines amid increasing rivalry with the u. s. one, manila, grants washington more military bases. so how's the philippines going to strike a balance and installations with this? isn't my story. ah

hello, welcome to the program. i'm in ron con. china's foreign minister has just wrapped up a visit to the philippines. it was a meeting between neighbors, not only with a history of deep economic ties, but also of long running territorial disputes. the 2 ministers have pledged to work together to resolve their differences. the visit was the latest in a series of high level meetings between the philippines and china and the united states, who are all vying for the upper hand in the asia pacific. we'll unpack this with august shortly, but 1st, alexandra buyers begins our coverage. china's foreign minister arrived in manila hoping to strengthen what he called a millennia old tradition of friendship. jingle met his counterpart as well as president ferdinand marcos. junior. they've pledged to work together to resolve territorial disputes in the south china sea. anton, would he, amid the fluid and turbulent regional situation, a healthy, unstable china philippines relationship is not only meeting the aspirations of our

2 peoples with you, but also in line with the common aspirations of regional countries. so i hope that today's meeting will give us an opportunity to follow through on the plans and games made for our prior countries. recent high level inter options and me some headway in addressing common issues and challenges. the meetings happened as the united states and philippines are staging, the largest joint military drills they've ever conducted the exercises called bulletin, which means shoulder to shoulder involve nearly $18000.00 troops and are due to run until the end of the month. this year's bala gotten will be the biggest ever an indication of the growth of our alliance and how it continues to evolve to meet our shared goals. washington and manila recently agreed to resume joint patrols in the south china sea. the deal also gives us forces access to for more philippine army

bases, including one near taiwan. something that has angered china. beijing considers the self governing island its own and earlier in april, conducted military exercises, practicing precision targeting and simulating what it called. the encirclement of taiwan. president marcos has denied the philippines could be used as a launching pad by the us and promised on saturday to improve communication with china, but as regional tensions simmer. the question is just how long he'll be able to maintain that balance. alexander buyers al jazeera for inside story. ah, or more on this. let's bring in our guess a in hanoi is richard a he, darren, he's an academic and also a book such as asia, new battlefield, us china. and the struggle for the western pacific in washington dc is gregory

polling director of the se, asia program and asia maritime transparency initiative at the center for strategic and international studies. and andrew lung is a china policy analyst. you joins us from hong kong, a warm welcome to you all. i'd like to begin in hanoi, where that richard, hey, darren richard. the biggest military exercise of the u. s. and the philippines of overtaken place manila now promising more military bases with in the philistines itself for the u. s. and now you have the chinese, a foreign minister missing. is this a case of too little too late for the chinese? are they trying to play catch up, ma'am? right, i mean, on the one hand, the philippines is kind of in a strategic sweet spot where i think it has a better bargaining position when it comes to dealing with china. because right now we have revitalized our lives with united states in ways that we didn't do in the past 6 years or so on their former president road to go to terry. i think what's happening here is the philippines is correcting on their president marcus junior.

the excessive and fruitless plantation which china, when he had a situation to write president the 3rd, the you know, did not assert our arbitration case. and it's all trying to see a trying to downgrade or kind of fall under minor elias with united states. and he was offered billions of dollars investments in china, and yet after 6 years of that, they're just presidency. not much concrete, big ticket, infrastructure, investment gaming from china. and to make matters worse, actually the situation to solve, trying to see where the philippines and china have martin. this is often deteriorated. so president markers, jen in furnace team, tried to give this relationship with chinese trash and fucking piece at, at china earlier this year in january. but if you look at the long joint statement that came out practically, no serious construction is from china. what are on infrastructure investments? a lot of them were played strapped in debt trop. nor was there any concessions from china to sell china's the front. so the philippines to realizing that he doesn't have much of a bargaining position because of the china. and i think that's how the fruitless people store chinese now going back these traditional allies. so what is the lesson for china?

the lesson for china is that you cannot out the philippines on the chip. if you want, have a better relationship with the philippines. you have to offer something completely to us, literally concretely in terms of investments, but also more importantly, when it comes to the territory, disputes in the south china sea. andrew, would you agree with that? you can't have a relationship with china con, have a relationship with the philippines on the cheap that it needs to be fruitful. the would that, that richard use was fruitless. would you agree with any of that? well, 1st of all, you look at the look at the relationship is not just between the philippines and china. it is between china and the united states in the south china sea and taiwan. a much bigger picture than just relationship between philippines and china. now let's not forget that the philippines has called a defense and kind of agreement, and we just, we deal, and i think every couple of years and, and, and under the agreement,

do you notice this is given access to different assets in a bit. it seems that recently this agreement and some sort of court has been rich with the united states, trying to play both sides. so in other words, a philippines would like to benefit from the u. s. military presence as the count will against china. but of course, the bill is not in the philippines interest to provoked a regional war or over time on all over other waters. because the media that you would pinch on and using the philippines as a collateral damage. that will be very serious for, for a little bit of water. seems that there is not a sweet sport is a very dangerous and delicate sport. because by allowing american military presence in the philippines in case that there is a, a war over taiwan example. this as american military as

a globalized and was subject to retaliation military retaliation from beijing using the styles or other bomb and voting and the philippines, nation and, and the people. so i think that's where it gets for a degree. i will come to you just a 2nd, but we're just want to push andrew on one of his points. and right now, right now, at this moment it's the us that a winning this relationship, the philippines is not china, that billions of dollars worth investment, the china promised. and the success of governance, philippines didn't materialize. so right now the u. s. does have the upper hand in the philippines over china. surely that's what it looks like. yes, i think the united states, of course, has got an upper hand. and literally, as i said, there was the president, a court would have been a law which has been lost. things are quite

a number of years already. and an american and the united states and deploy military assets in the philippines. and although the recent kind of negotiations between the bid against the united states and in some sort of agreement to continue to allow the american access to this military as, as, as inside a bit of pins. what i'm trying to say is that while the united states has got a leverage over the philippines, as united states does not necessarily have leverage over china, because let's not forget aid. the child's name is been and is larger than the united states in terms of numbers, but certainly the waters in over time on straight for as much nearer to china than the united states. and of course, china has called the anti access area, denial missiles, or aircraft killing designs and also remote control,

drones and underwater. busy acids that can meet in the intervention body, united states, but on the other hand, there's no formula to prove to prevent a whole. and when you know what happens immediately as it could be called out to damage, that's the one in front of it. well, let's bring in a group calling here. we've just been talking about navy. we're talking about maritime, clearly the philippines and archipelago of islands. but these are 2 countries that cannot actually agree on even what to call it. china calls at the start trying to see the philippines calls at the west philippines. see, it's crucial what's going on when it comes to the maritime, when it comes to the both navies in the area now. yeah. look at absolutely. i think we, when we talk about the student alliance, when we talk about the enhanced cooperation agreement, the expansion of us access that open basis. and you said, why is all this happening? and the answer is the south,

tennessee and the inability or unwillingness and aging, to recognize that in policies in the south, tennessee, or to west open. he pushed miller to this point. i think it's a fundamental problem right now between beijing and manila, because from the philippines point of view is responding to external threats from china. from china's point of view, the philippines has no agency. it's not making any of its own decisions isn't due, but the americans are when you the cortex ordinarily offensive developing policy makers and a means that the 2 sides are talking across from each other. richard, is this a strategic mistake on behalf of the philippines? well, andrew was saying is that okay, they might be the power in the philippines right now, but the u. s. doesn't control china. china ultimately is its own person, its own man. so you're making mistakes. i mean yeah, i appreciate if i the greg mission and very important were at strategic agency. i had lost that our friend in china mention our ongoing, mentioned that this is really just about us in china as if none of us monitoring

the reason it's just about them. i don't think that's true. i think a lot of us have agency disorder region where all summer in states who want to make decisions accordingly. what i also find very interesting is what i called strategic gas lighting. oh, of course provocation is concerned, the thread is not going from the philippines. the philippines is not threatening china or taiwan, nor is the united states the threat of invasion of time when it's going from china . the bullying happening to west philippines, your assault trenice, or whatever you want to call it. it's not from the philippines, it's not from the united states. so countries like the philippines gave you the chance onto there. we were, we had the, we should have got the gold medal for loyalty to china. we did the best we could do on their present, but that to make the situation better for china and yet we really didn't get much in exchange. so i think right now china has to do some soul searching. you know, they may have the biggest or navy in this part of the world, but, you know, us is not alone. us as japan, they're us not south korea. they're us as a strategy of their, it's not just the philippines and by the, with the philippines is just trying to be in a position of preparation. and philippines wants to help efforts in the region to

deter invasion of fi one because i want is closer to the philippines than most of his asian countries. and the philippines also wants to expedite the modernization of his armed forces by bitter allies with the united states. but let's, let's not make any mistake. markers junior does not want to just side with the u. s . against china. he just wants to strengthen these countries position. i think we still want to have the best possible relationship. we can, how we china. but it's a given tape. and if china cannot even accept the philippines agency and just use us as a pulpit of america, good luck with that. gregory. but post the 2nd world war, the philippines did have a pretty great relationship with both china and with the u. s. in fact, it's prided itself as being one of the places that can tool to all of the soup of house, including regional superpowers. so as something's gone wrong here, do you think since did say was empower, do you think something has broken? yeah, not just since there may mean that you right that from the mid 19 seventies. when

ty for normalize under marco senior on the zillow thing's did pursue very positive relations with china until the 19 ninety's. and in the $99.00, if you began to see the acceleration of the south seas china occupied mister free in the philippine economic town, it began more frequently harassing. she'll you know, fisher to scarborough shawl. is that so he said administered since the end of world war 2. and that really took off under the aquino government with the seizure, scarborough, and then the island building campaign to call it international headlines. so what you see in public opinion polling and lead opinion, poland, is that china has gone from being seen as a partner, economic opportunity in the buildings to be seen as an external threat. first and foremost, andrew, let me bring you in here. what we're talking about, i want to talk to you about hierarchy. china, obviously a very big power has huge influence in africa, has huge influence in south asia. has investments all over the world. practically. how important is the philippines to china?

well, i think of the philippines as a friend rather than as a baby. there was a great, a relationship between the philippines and china, as evidenced by the recent and stay visit by president markets to beijing. and this relationship been solid fire. but what i'm trying to say is that the bins and by allowing the wooden side could have been to be used by a new american military and would subject itself to the risks. and the possibility that in case of a war happening over the sometimes see over at the region, those military assets inside of it. ready could jeopardize the security and safety of the philippine people because it was subject to bottom and by a nation by china number looks. let's look at the risks and also to war. and

actually china doesn't want a war over this. i will try to see and turn those want. i want to be united with china peacefully and this is endorsed by 3 and the serial white paper published by beijing. the last one, each of the following, the nancy pelosi visit, all raising the preference for peaceful unification. but the fact remains that most people do not want in a vacation, but not to do most of them want independence. they want to maintain the status quo . but while the united states is trying to play, the one con, tried to create more and more people medic space. but i want to play as if time one was a separate country. and also for allowing more and more senior american leaders to visit taiwan as if taiwan was a separate country. so this is try to following out on the one time china policy

and is anti one, should be allowed to declare formal independence that was trigger war. so i think that this more in, as far as the philippines is concerned, it's not a party to which, but unfortunately by allowing the american military s, as inside of it happens, these answers could well be used by united states or. ready for this war, and by using the spam did it, we as it was subject the philippines to bombardment by and we carry asian park by my beach in case so to war happens, this is. busy john say, gregory, there is an interesting parallel to be drawn here, and i want to talk about russia and ukraine. one of the warnings that the russians gave the ukrainians was, don't get too close to nato. you know, one of the warnings they gave the west was, this is in our sphere of influence. just do not get involved here. this is, this is russian sphere of influence. china seems to be doing the same thing with

the south china seas. it seems we saying to the west to later to america, that this is our sphere of influence. we're talking about taiwan. they always mentioned i one is andrew just did this a dangerous precedent. it's a dangerous time. you could be walking blindly into a conflict. the u. s could blunder into a conflict. surely. i don't think the u. s. is pollyanna ish here. i think the by the ministration understands that the read the risk of the accidental escalation across the street is not just one street in the south and east tennessee on the indian border is getting increasingly high and a large part of that is because of aging. and willingness to compromise on any of these patients with neighbors. every us there is a balancing act. you're wanting to put a guard rails maintains for communication, prevent escalation. the u. s. is also, you know, demand signal from our right and it has to respond if it wants to continue to be

seen as the partner choice as a provider. so when the philippines comes knocking on american doors and says, we need help because trying to keep trying to start our troops out in the islands every 6 weeks. the u. s. has to say yes. when your pan complains, when india complains, when korea complains non complaint, they come to the us as a balance or, and i'd come back to the point i made earlier, one of the funding problems here. you ask china about the philippines and china want to talk about i was trying to refuses to recognize that the philippines had any legitimate reason to fear, trying, trying to, hadn't done anything over the last decade to drive the philippines to the asian. just richard. we are talking about how one because it has been brought up. you were talking about. the idea of the philippines is over a nation that it should be able to develop relations with any country once. but the bottom line is, is that chinese go to a priority in taiwan, and by allowing the americans and you'll walking a dangerous path. well,

i will also want to mention that title and also has an agency, right? so i think andrew correctly pointed out the also to watch out where they're going to elect, so they're gonna have a presidential election very soon. so let's hope that on the part of the 51, also there played their carts well so that they don't give anyone any excuse to do anything crazy or out of the box. now speaking of the philippines, the reality is that they're just too geographically close to tie one odd to sit this all of course. and at the same time we're us ala. we cannot be neutral because a lot of war games suggest that including morgan i think, conducted by rigor pollings is to show lester, suggest that soldering, tie ones, surest would be one point of entry for a potential chinese kinetic accent. and that's just over 100. not got miles from some of the philippine basis in mongolia in full. got him on waters. by the way, we didn't open the spaces to america or not yet, but the reality is that the philippines is just close. it is too much close to close to the taiwan tia theater to be a neutral and where are you?

as i said, we're not going to be addressed. so imagine situation. there's a war between us and china. american troops are getting killed or wounded and we say we're neutral. so that's why in, in recognition of that potential nightmare situation, what we want to do at this, what market was to be, to prepare for that. and hopefully by having a collective strong stance together with us. but also we define them orders be terry china from even invading by one because i think that's a lesson we are drawing from ukraine. the reason why you green was invade it was because it was not backed up enough. ukraine had more defense cooperation or short this from denito, from the u. s. i think russia would have thought twice. and i think china's way more rational, less, more aggressive and reckless and rush hour with the instructor. so i think if the philippines are buying u. s. plato cardwell to integrated the term strategy. perhaps we can deter or make trying to think twice about any kid that kinetic ashley, the near future after all, even under said, china doesn't want war 2, but we have to prepare for it. if you want peace, you have to prepare for war. i mean, andrew, china isn't looking for war. i mean,

i think we can confidently say that, but it might have been easier just to buy the philippines off. committed. wouldn't that wouldn't china just commit to the billions of dollars it promised the previous government in investment? as i pointed out and philippines is a and it is within this a regional comprehensive economic partnership of the world's largest. busy trading block accounting for a 3rd of the world g, d, p. i thought it was the asian, always the pins of courses and very important trading partner. but that cannot be used as an override china's territorial interest, particularly over time on. so you push, come, push comes to the show and, and the american s, as in a very bins, are being used in such a war. and the philippines would necessarily be dragged in,

not because china wants it. but because of the presence of these american and military assets in as it is now, as far as the ukraine situation is concerned, that there is a perception in b j that the united states wants to prove what china into taking untimely action. so that charlotte could be dragged into a ukrainian type meyer, and so as to arrest charles rise. and to what a development trajectory beijing is to credit for that. i don't think the b j would be drawn to do it because there is a fully military prepare in terms of for anti access area denial of. ready drones. ready aircraft and water navy and over time on straight case and the eventually it actually happens, but beijing doesn't want that origin was as i said, people in the vacation. so i think the beijing has got to patients the danger. but

a bit of bins is that even though it would like to remain neutral, it would likely risk being. busy drawn into it and where the navy, in case a venture out of the app, gregory polling the us, does have a card to play it. right. no one wants to be dragged into a wool. but the u. s. wants to make sure that the philippines is a strategic friend, the strategic assa, when it comes to military bases. so there's a way for both china and for the us to co exist within the philippines itself. and that's simply by doing what they're doing, keeping the status quote, is that something that the government is taking seriously b u. s. government? i think it's absolutely correct when, if you want the fee is made by the secretary to find her defense from the philippines last week when they were in washington for the $2.00 plus 2 meeting with us counterparts. bank both for us time and time again that they want positive relations, economic relations with china and

a closer military alliance with the americans. and they see that as key to the philippines independent foreign policy, which is not the same as neutrality. but it means the philippines gets to make its own decision. it is not beholden to us strategic decision making and their american counterparts and time again, we get it. we, we agree we support that. the real question though is, is the current status quo actually stable? and while we, thanks so much about the taiwan story for obvious reasons. the fact is that every few weeks, filipino co star ships getting violently harassed by a chinese vessel in the south, tennessee. that's where the status quo is likely to bridge. and so i think china cannot maintain its current hyper aggressive officer in the south and see and expect the philippines not continue to drive closer to the american richard hunter . and we are running out of time by do want to end with you this idea of the status quo, which is clearly will philippines is doing. it's managing a relationship between china and between the united states. but that's going to

take a lot of political skill. does this government have that political skill? i don't know what it was for mark a junior yet, but i think has gone far better than many people expected from him. the other year . expectation of most so called experts, was that marcus junior would be kind of 2nd to $32.00 point. oh, he'll finish off. what did 30 could not, which is essentially making the philippines like a fossil state of china and a very unreliable or just kind of fast superficial ali, the u. s. and yet that's not what's happened. i think market junior, he's someone who was part of his father's efforts of normal living dicey china backing to day 19 seventies. he has a lot of experience with jo policies on a personal level and that he and he has many, many good advice to seraphim. so i'm cautiously optimistic that he will not be foolish enough to provoke china, but also not foolish enough to do what he's pre assessor needs. therefore, i think what you will do is to constantly hedge, if that lies with the united states strong enough so that we're not too weak and we are bargaining position. we try not,

but his st on not to make it too strong and to in your face so that it will undermine our diplomatic, has all the relations you china. it's going to be absolutely difficult, but their hope is it will work because if it doesn't work, all of us are going to be troubled by the way. i'm here, but i mean, i'm right now and our hope is not only philippines, but philippines would work with other other countries with similar concerns. we china so that we can have an effective collective front in dealing with it. that's why the role of ours young is also very important in how we address this problem in this part of the world. i want to thank o guest, richard. hi, darren, greg pulling and andrew lung. and i want to thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, is there a dot com unfulfilled, further discussion. rather, let's go to our facebook page at facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. and you can also join the conversation on twitter. handle is at ha, inside story from me, iran con, and the whole team head. but, ah,

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