a collinsville awards really busy over blue female fiction. it is obviously a remarkable 3 part people empower investigation into a complex, secretive world. 2 journalists go in search of italian mafia is dirty money, launderer parked to on a jessia. u. s. president joe biden is seeking re election next year with donald trump hoping to one against him. once again. the campaign ahead is likely to be uncertain and unpredictable. so what challenges does by, than face of what the voters want? this is inside story. ah ah hello, welcome to the program. i'm adrian finnegan. joe biden is to run again for the u. s . president seep saying he wants to finish the job. he started after replacing

donald trump in the 2020 election despite facing criminal charges. trump hopes to be his opponent if he wins the republican nomination, but at the age of 80 biden is already the oldest u. s. president in history. brushing off concerns about his fitness for a 2nd term. we'll be discussing the battle ahead with our guests in just a moment, but 1st a report from al jazeera capielo pas hold on. you're more freedom or less free. now that joe biden has announced is 2020 for re election campaign. the work begins to convince voters he deserves another 4 years in the white house. ah, that may be challenging. with his approval rating at around 40 percent, his team needs independent voters. many of them discouraged and overwhelmed with high inflation. and the rising cost of living incline is work the pace of inflation coming down out for 9 months in robins or to go slower by florida. harper said we

have more to do. his supporters see he's a solid leader during and certain times. the point of biden's record and his backing of abortion rights gone legislation and social security benefits. i think it's wonderful. i mean, seems like we're doing pretty good and i don't know anybody else that i want us to represent us right now at this difficult time that we're in. critics aren't convinced they insist, biden is leading the country in the wrong direction from constance spending to a historic search of immigration at the southern border at 80 years old. he's already the oldest president and us history. if elected, he would be $86.00 at the end of his 2nd term. i'm a little bothered. he's a little ole. and if i can't join the army at 58, i don't think he shit one the country at 80. 0,

democrats warned some of donald trump's supporters, who biden calls maggie extremist, who's a threat to democracy. he does, but that messaging doesn't appear to be enough as a potential 2024 re match between biden and trump is leaving. some voters disengaged there. my initial door, i'm actually a little bit different. you know, i really haven't seen a lot of the policies and things that he was stating while he was campaigning. um so you know, kenneth well, we don't care. ah, biden's team says the president can and should serve a 2nd term. the question now was whether voters will agree katya lopez again for insight. sorry. ah. so let's introduce our guests for today's discussion. they're all joining us from the u. s. for washington dc. we joined by david bolger, democratic strategist and national security consultant, david's

a former staffer to than senator joe biden, from stanford, connecticut, liz mer, republican strategist and founder of mass strategies, l. l. c. liz is the former republican national committee spokesperson and also in washington laura, blessing senior fellow at the government affairs institute, georgetown university. welcome to you all david. let's start with you. 44 percent of democrats say he's too old to run. as we heard 70 percent responders to an nbc poll don't think he should want again, because of his age, he'll be 86 by the end of his 2nd term if reelected, surely. biden is just too old to one. again, isde i wouldn't say that the president biden is too old. i think he is like many americans of that age category and he is in good health. his mental acuity is strong. and if you look at what

he's done over the last 3 years, he's pretty successful. so i think that what the president biden and his team and vice president harris will be doing is essentially running on their record over the last 3 years. and i think the american people realize that we're on the upswing and for improvements are being made, but we need to stay the course. liz. david says he's been pretty successful. his age shouldn't matter. that's not how republican see it. that was it? no, absolutely not. but also, i think, going back to the point that you made at the top of this, at least 44 percent of democrats also don't see it this way. i will tell you, irrespective of how people respond to the polls, i don't know a single democrat who actually thinks that joe biden is still in a good position to be doing this job, given his age. whatever people want to say about mental acuity,

he is clearly not as sharp as he used to be. now granted in a contest with tromp cor, dealing with 2 extremely old people, both of whom seem to be losing the plot quite a bit. and so he may be able to eat that out, but if he's running against somebody who is a younger contender, which is exactly where i think the republican party is inclined to go no matter what the poll show right now, i think he's going to have a serious issue on his hands, because at the end of the day, a lot of his own photo simply don't think he's actually up to the task. they'll vote for him anyway, but that's going to have a huge impact on her swing voters go. laura, the advantage is the bite and enjoyed ahead of the that the 2020 election are no longer trump is, is not an office anymore. pandemic restrictions that allowed binding to get away with minimal campaigning. a also gone does bite and have the energy vega, amount of effective presidential campaign this time around. i don't know if you'll be fuel by guineas, ice cream this time around. but elections, you know,

are a choice. they're not a referendum me. he's the, he's unlikely to be challenged seriously in the primaries, you've got to minor primary challenges that won't be significant. politically, for him is likely to be a candidate on the other side and sell, you know, if you have an 8 year old versus a 76 year old we're, we start talking about what we want in terms of policy priorities dated. he says he wants to, to finish the job at as you pointed out, he, he sounded the achievements of his 1st term in that reelection campaign ad that, that he launched. what though, given that, but the house is no longer controlled by his party and a democrats face a tough fight to hold the senate in 2024. what canny finish. why think he can the, the bipartisan infrastructure law. and i use the term by pars,

and rather loosely is a perfect example what he's going to be doing and what secretary of transportation peak, but a judge and others have been doing is essentially bringing home the bacon so to speak, to every congressional district. every city, every county, every little town improving the, the livelihood of our citizens out there. so that's something that joe biden is responsible for me and he is, and he will be continuing to push these successes. at the same time, he's going to expose the republican parties, what they're doing, what they did to limit the reproductive rights for women. the, there are fewer, there are fewer rights and responsibilities, so it's, it's going to be a easy target. i would say, liz will,

will bite one against trump and in 2024. do you think or will a younger, less divisive candidate be selected by the cherokee? i don't personally think that we're running trump in 2024. i think that the holes that you see right now are primarily a test of name, id, name, recognition. and it's not surprising that as popular as a governor, like ron de santis is within the republican party, he would not have the name id to donald trump does. he never sat there hosting and be sees the apprentice for season after season. he did not sit in the white house for 4 years. he did not run a to your presidential campaign before that where he was on cable news, basically 247. and so i think that those polls that show on the santa is not in a great position right now to be donald trump, are going to change very sharply if and when he enters the contest. and i expect that he will probably some time around the end of may. he needs to get through the

end of the florida legislative session. that's very important. but i think everybody who's banking on this being a biden trump redux is probably making a big mistake. and i think if the democratic party is working on the assumption that they're running against donald trump, they better start putting their ducks in order to figure out what they're going to do about running against the santas. i think that hitting him on abortion will be effective to a certain degree. but it's also very clear if you look at the polling. rhonda santas performance massively better than donald trump does against joe by probably because he didn't basically foisted insurrection on the country. but listen, what happens if it trump isn't selected us as the republican nominee and runs anyway? i mean, who will be hurt most by that might in or as you say, the other most likely candidate run the santas. well, i will have to see what actually happens. there is a way that bite and can eat things out. there's always a way that any candidate and a presidential contest can win. if we go back and we remember ahead of the 2016

election, almost all political prognosticators were saying because they gave donald trump maybe like one to 5 percent chance of winning. personally, i gave him about a 35 percent chance of winning, which was the highest that i heard from anybody outside his team. so i think it's important to remember that anything can happen in these races. news events will shape them. things that will happen that will pop up into people's minds and register on voters minds, the state of the economy. these kinds of things can impact the contours of the race . it is possible that biden will be capable of pulling this out. i think if he placed the abortion card very heavily, he has a better chance of doing that. but i think it's going to be a lot tougher for him to be rhonda santos than it would be to be donald trump. i think all of the polling shows that clearly one thing that we know is that swing voters have decided even though they think that this indictment of him in new york city is heavily politicized. they also think that it's automatically disqualifying . and when you have a largest chunk of the electra right now affiliating is independence. and the

partisan affiliation getting smaller for both democrats and republicans. it's going to be very hard for somebody like donald trump, to actually win a presidential election if he cannot appeal to the swing voters. but i think somebody like ron status has an ability to that ability just hasn't been fully tested or bedded at this point. so we'll have to see david, we'll get back to laura in just a moment. but david, what do i ask you 1st? who would, with the democrats rather be be up against here, with biden, as their presidential nominee? would they rather be fighting trump or de santis? there's only one name and that is donald trump. donald trump is you can, you can cert rhonda santas into the as the candidate as the nominee, but that still donald trump. he's been an acolyte for a donald trump for the last years as in his role as governor, even when he was in the house. so, um,

that's what the democratic strategy is to essentially get out of the way of the republicans making big mistakes, or whether it's donald trump, rhonda santas, chris christie, whomever. there will be every ad, every message that goes out will be whatever that candidates. and donald trump in the same same frame. so that's something that does the people will have to the, on the republican side will have to deal with to remove the stain of trump. if trump is not the nominee, it's most likely he will be the nominee up and we'll see just pushed, stay on our record. and again, i say the democrats need to get out of the way of the republicans going after each other. laura, to what extent will independent and swing votes as cole, the 2024 presidential election? if it's trump versus bible will lego for biting as the least worst option?

and, and to what extent will voter apathy play a part is what people are excited by either of the 2 candidates. we heard of the younger people in our report right at the beginning of the program saying will that that'll particularly fussed or excited by by trump or by president by it and what happens if if the turnout is low? i think you, i like 2 really important things for their, i mean both independence in the, in the middle are more likely to go for providing that. trump really does, you know, as, you know, as david just pointed out, he says the preferred person for fighting to run against, from biden's point of view. but we also have questions on potential enthusiasm gap . and we've seen both parties historically, really put a lot of attention on energizing their base as the teacher winning elections. and so if you have a difficulty doing that, regardless of what side you are, you're going to have a hard time new york. and this is the republican based fight up enough to to get

behind whichever candidate the g o. p nominates for president. yeah, i think one thing that's interesting to note though, from within the republican party, outside of it, it looks like trump committed voters are the most diehard committed people on the face of the planet. but actually looking at it from within the republican party, i will tell you one key difference is that the de santis people are infinitely more fired up for don and ron de santis than any of the tempers i've ever seen. florida for donald trump and that was already quite wrapped up. you can find supporters of donald trump, who will concede that there are things he has done that have been mistakes. he is imperfect. he is flawed. the de santis people, they will concede honestly if there were like a report about ron, the santas. having done a poor job at potty training when he was 2 or 3 years old, the de santis people would push back against that and they would fail to believe that those people are die hard. they are committed. they do not way over. i

guarantee you somebody who says that they are the santas, voter is 100 percent guaranteed to turn out. whereas trump voters, i would say it's a little bit less than that. and i don't know where it sits with biting voters. so i think when you're looking at that enthusiasm gap, that is an area where the st answers might possibly be able to over perform expectations just a little bit based on the fact that his base is extraordinarily wrapped up. i mean, honestly, i've been working in this business for a long time. i've never seen a group of supporters that are as committed to a candidate and as fired up as rhonda sanchez, the voters are and there are a lot of them put it on the line him and who do you think? now the republican nominee is going to be this trump out of the picture. i've thought rhonda santos, since we got back to like september of last year. i still think that i think it's a little less likely than if you'd asked me 2 months ago, because i think he has had a little bit of a wobble. but personally, i think that the party would be crazy to nominate trump over him, and i think that there is sufficient enthusiasm for me to see how he numerically

gets it done. the. the biting team is already warning about the dangers of a trumped president. he a 2nd, trump presidency. what, what america looked like on the president de santis wouldn't look the same as under donald trump. that's one place for democrats are making a major mistake. and they may be actually missing opportunities to hit republicans because donald trump is very much right when, when it comes to issues like immigration and trade. so it's rhonda santas, but rhonda santas is actually very conservative on economic issues and social issues. whereas donald trump has been relatively moderate within the republican party on those. so i think democrats really need to pay close attention to who brought to santas is, is a personality because for as much as he was sort of dragged over the finish line in his 1st given to tauriel, raised by donald trump and his team. and he was endorsed by him. he's actually not a carbon copy of donald trump. philosophically, he's probably a lot closer to scott walker or ted cruz. and if you look at how those people are

performed electrically, that could make something very good for him, or it could be something very bad for him. but i think trying to depict him as a trump carbon cut out, that's going to be very difficult to sell with quite a lot of voters that joe biden is going to have to persuade. he could do it, it's totally possible. but i think it's going to be tricky. david, or the democrats taking defense seriously enough at the moment. i think they are. i think we are. i think it's a um, you know, it's interesting. lor, it brings up a, lizzie, i'm sorry, you brought up the scott walker. i was going to say who, you know, scott walker 78 years ago was the hot republican candidate. now, he's is pretty much to nowhere and ted cruz. those are 2 candidates who lost their presidential bids. so i think the, you know, the democrats definitely, oh we, we have to keep our eyes open. again, i'm is emphasized that whoever is the candidate they are,

there is an alignment with donald j. trump. and we will make sure that everyone knows that every ad that is out there, that this is what you're looking at. if you vote for this person, it's another, it's a carbon copy of a donald trump, so that some, that's the i think the main message of attack message is to say, let's make sure that we know who we're voting for and, and look at the records and as you know of a vote accordingly, more of your what you are coming on, anything that you've heard in the last few minutes. you know, i, i think there's a little bit of a distinction between similarities and personality versions versus policy style. i, depending on what voters are interested in, or they may not see a difference on things like abortion, policy or voting policy between some of these candidates that are being discussed. so in terms of how policy actually affects lives, i think that's

a worthwhile discussion. it's not just for the campaigns to have, but for as a media and the american people, consider laura getting back to a bivens age and his ability to, to see out a full to him. what happens if by it, in his somehow incapacitated between now and of the election before 2024? no, i think that's highly unlikely. but then you know, we will we'll, we'll see who we have. how waiting in the wings. this is why vice presidential choices are important of, you know, not to, you know, i wanted to phrase this in a more sensitive way than this. but, you know, people don't tend to remember mchenry very well. no matter. sure. you put in vp slot, but you know, for looking at vice president harris, you know, they're actually a number of different similarities between her in terms of a sense of being a more moderate democrats and other options that are out there as well as

a pretty similar pulling to buttons dated mortality rates for men of bindings age are almost 5 times higher than 55 to 64 year olds. i know laura was was uncomfortable with the way that i by phrased the last question about bio and somehow being incapacitated but give him that the odds of him serving a full 2nd turn on not in his faith. and i mean, we have to be open and honest here is come, harris the right person to be on the ticket for 2024. i definitely, i think president biden, or actually a candidate bite. and when he made the selection for sen, carmella harris to be his running, made back in 2020 i. e. he's, he's all in. he supports all the work that she's done. the vin, some ups and downs. definitely. there's been some personnel issues on her staff,

but for the most part, president of vice president harris has been a, an asset to this ticket. i think you're going to see more of her if you saw the video yesterday. i think there were definite references, not only the 2nd gentleman was there too, so i think he's, president biden is really pushing the team approach because there are different audiences that that vice president harris appeals to. so i think he's definitely all in with that and let me, let me just say, you know, as present biden's age, i think he will own it. i think he will recognize that this is what 80 year olds do . but he's, he's not going to shy away from the fact that he has decades of experience. he knows world leaders, he knows how they think he knows how systems work. and i, he's going to essentially execute an execute on those initiatives going forward. so

again, i think last 3 years have been i've been very successful from a legislative point of view for the bi demonstration, and i think he's gonna work on that record the economy just has to continue to improve the or, or i, david said, so that's how 80 year olds, all but as liz pointed out earlier, he's not a shop as, as he used to be we, we've seen that remedies prone to making the old gaff and the, to what extent is he putting his party at risk by taking this, this huge gamble on running again for a 2nd to him. well, if, if we're talking about gaffs with the president biden, he had this, this, this or i'd say it's a problem, but this is a type of responses when he was in the senate. do so,

gaps or nets, not necessarily the barometer here. i think would would it's going to be important to emphasize. and as, as the, my fellow colleagues on the program will tell you, this is a very long road from here. and not only that from a calendar point of view, but if you have gaffs, if you have missteps, if you say, i mean, look at, gerald ford, what he said about poland in the 1976 campaign. so i think you're this, this is an early days in the campaign, and joe, by knows that, you know, so it's going to be, he's, he's ready for the ultramarathon that he's going to be going on. and this is his last election. all right, let's put that said to liz, for a moment i'm going to ask you to look at the other side that the point of view from a strategic cash on. if you were advising that the democrats live, i mean, this is quite a gamble, isn't it?

by a man of his putting up amount of his age to run for a 2nd term. i mean what, what, what, what your advice to democrats be right now? oh yeah, entirely. it's a gamble, and i would also point out if we're going to talk about gerald ford and gas, gerald ford got his but kicked, you know, so that's probably not who i be pointing to. it's a sort of defense advice, instability to pull this thing out. look, i don't think democrats necessarily have a better choice. who do they do? run gavin newsom. i mean, i think avenue some has a very hard time appealing to a lot of the voters that joe barton has appealed to sort of more work in class glue call. or traditional union type household voters who have stuck with democrats in certain instances. like if they run somebody like joe biden, i think that's very difficult for gavin newsome. i think it would be interesting if they considered looking at nominating somebody like michigan scratch and whittemore, i don't how if she has any interest in that? i think amy clover char could be an interesting candidate. i think when you break down polling and you look at the state level, it actually looks like, you know,

the minnesota governor actually has some pretty good economic numbers on his side. and he has some pretty good approval rating numbers on his side. so there are other options. the trouble with those things is that people would have to start from scratch. they're starting way behind the 8 ball, because biden has basically lock this thing up so far. that it is impossible virtually for somebody else to step into the race at this point. and they simply don't have the name id. so, you know, i don't think democrats necessarily have a better choice. but democrats need to stop at the, very soon with his whole pretending that biden, at the age he, that has the mental acuity and ability to do the job that he did when he was obama's, vice president, he quite simply doesn't. and anybody who watches him on tv can see that it is the same as with donald trump struggling to get down that ramp. neither of these guys are anywhere close to their prime anywhere close to having the mental ability still to do the job. and i think most of us who have parents who are over the age of 70, we do naturally see that decline occurring. and that's going to be

a pretty big chunk of the electorate heading into the selection. so they do need to think about it. i think they have, and i think that's why you have seen comma la, so prominently on display in this announcement video. i think the difficulty the democrats have there is a comma. harris appears to be relatively and competent enough herself. the administration doesn't trust her with much, her staff leak about her perpetually her staff seem to hate her and think she's competent. i mean, there is a real problem here. okay. they may still pull it out, but there's a real problem i, i can see david disagreeing there, shaking said david, i'm afraid we're out of time. i'm not going to have to come back to you right now. but, but i just wanted to make the point that you vehemently disagree the many. thanks, andy, to all of you, david bulge a liz, matt and blore, a blessing. and as always, thank you for watching. don't forget, you can see the program again at any time by visiting our website at al jazeera dot com for further discussion. join us in our facebook page. you'll find that at facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. and of course,

the conversation continues on twitter handle at a j inside story from me a for him, for like an attitude here in ohio. thanks for being with us. we'll see you again. bye for now. ah ah ah ah

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