in fire for a fraud takes on the big issues. this isn't one of he's talking about a systemic issue here. black labs don't really matter in the police were unflinching questions is war with lawanda, imminent rigorous debate? people who are dying because of lack of treatment, challenging conventional wisdom. the fact that people are starting to get angry about this is in itself a sign of program. join me, mark him on hill for up, right. what. how does era 2 weeks, the violence of plans to down into turmoil. hundreds of people have been killed and tens of thousands of flit. the country is home to more than $500.00 ethnic groups and as rich and natural resources. these factors linked to the conflicts. this is inside story. ah.

hello and welcome to the program. i'm tom mccrae, sedans people are once again living in fear, suffering the consequences of all out conflict between the army and paramilitary rapid support forces. the cause is multi pronged sudan, has a troubled history. it's diverse population is composed of different ethnicities and societal groups. and it is rich and natural resources will be speaking to our panel of guests about how these factors could be influencing the current fighting and so downs future. but 1st to alex, be it has this report, 2 weeks of waking up to the sound of air strikes and gunfire. sudanese are caught up in a battle that's been in the making for a long time. a political power struggle routed, and ethnic and regional divisions. further complicated by the fight for control over natural resources such as minerals and oil. at the center of conflict,

a to general the head of the army, abdel fata albert han, and the commander of the rapid support forces. mohammed hummed on the gallow, known as had made. both men are known to africa fairly well. and boy, i saw this is not a contract that i just, you know, book and so i am optimistic that they leave as that the a you have to get that. what if god is both to yield some rain, but it's going to be a bit forward. but su, done his more than $500.00 ethnic groups. and politics has long been dominated by an elite based and around her tomb. but han has traditionally gone and support from his fellow sudanese arabs, while humidity has a significant face among non arabic ethnic groups and waste and su, done including the food. this is partly because he's from a non arab tribe. the mohammed. both sides have tens of thousands of fights, is foreign back is and vast resources at the disposal the army controls most of the

economy, but the paramilitary group, overseas goldmine. in areas the country is africa is 3rd largest producer of the precious missile. and in 2021 about 90 tons of gold on the global market came from sudan. it also has deposits of copper i in car. mm hm. and uranium, as well as abundant arable land, which supports the agriculture depend to the economy. through don is located on the nile river vital for irrigation and hydro, electric power generation was shared with egypt and e. c. o pierre at borders. another 5 countries, nearly all of which a maya and conflicts, the country has strategic ports on the read. see the only points of export for around $135000.00 barrels of oil a day. most of it from south through done. despite this, the united nations classified to don as a low income country. if this violence continues, it could spillover and effects,

regional access to water, mineral exports, and oil supplies. and then these, the unfolding humanitarian crisis, the fighting has killed hundreds of people and injured thousands. is a shortage of food and fuel and hospitals are out of service. many countries have evacuated, the citizens and tens of thousands of people have played, all of which is pushing at base a future for sued needs even further out of reach. alex bid from inside story. ah. okay, joining me now are our guests in montreal that colored madonna, associate professor of political science and his law mich studies and chairman of the african studies program at mcgill university in cairo, raj in macau. he, editor of africa, arguments a platform for news investigation, and opinion, and also of sedans, unfinished democracy, and here and our ha, we have

a while leads madiba, the founder and president of the sudan policy for him. thank you very much for joining us. roger. if i can begin with you, you've just arrived in egypt after fleeing sudan, can you just give us a brief explanation of how difficult that journey walls and, and how hard it was to, to escape certain? it's very, very difficult. and the reality is it's sue dime, people living in cartoon has been kind of under stress of conflict humbling by when the last 15 days or so. are all scrambling to the saddam soon with the you know, the little really they know most and which the committee, which with, which has egypt. they've got thousands and thousands of people who are on the team who are taking the same on the same road, taking the same routes toward the same kind of a crossing point. the situation at the border is,

is very kind of difficult and protracted. and the crossing point itself, again is and it's not a human kind of, you know, crossing point, it's a cargo. and so it's not just needed to receive thousands and thousands of people every day. so you've got a situation where people have been kind of watching for weeks now. i mean, it took me weeks to get through with almost no access to any basic and services that people need to maintain themselves. so it is very, i mean there's no food in water. i mean, there are no bathrooms and the security situation itself is quite dire and you know, the state and so on a piece on the downside is not, i mean,

access to information in order to give you an update on what you need to do in order to get out and it's not at the level that is required to help people move on in straightforward manner. yeah, it's, it's hard to imagine the difficulties that you and the tens and tens of thousands of other students have had to go through just to, to, to get to safety. but we are extremely grateful that you and your family are safe at this point in time. colored, i'd like to talk to you a little bit about ethnic divisions in sudan and, and how that might have played a role in the lead up to this conflict. i mean, is the simply a war between 2 generals basically buying for power and influence themselves, or do you think that there are deeper ethnic divisions to this conflict? i would say that it is not so much ethnic, but a political crisis, of course reflected in the competition,

political and military competition between these 2 generals. but i think the notion that this is an ethnic conflict is some things that are oftentimes um, you know, not corrected. there is no correlation in africa or sudan, frankly, if you don't mind me saying between the density and the number ethnic groups and, and conflict, and so as, as easy, it is, it, as it is to say and reduce this conflict to inter ethnic conflict. it's just not the case i would suggest, and my guest of course, can chime in that i historically, the issue in sudan is an imbalance between the center and the periphery. that actually gives us a much more, a better understanding not only of the present conflicts, but also the decades really in particularly the last 30 years under the rule of a sheet in which the primary investment of the country. of course, of course, of 60 percent of the national budget under, but she went to the military. the remaining went to and very kind of limited

geographical triangle around her to them around the river. we area specifically, i don't go and say that that just wouldn't you know, full well. and that really had to do with the concentration of power to stay at the level of the center of the state, the dates back to the colonial era. understanding it that way, that is the conflict a historical one between center periphery can help you understand the conflict between you know, the national army, of course, that is amanda by many from the central part of the country. and he met to himself from the so called periphery, but who does not necessarily represent, in fact, he does not represent the majority of that for you. and as you can imagine, in addition to that, that a kind of lens of looking at it from center and periphery. vantage point also helps us understand the issue and conflict in easton. so dad, as an example of a marginalized and cultural and politically and economically historically. and what we call the 2 areas of, of, of the fan and the blue nile. i'm understanding it between as a history

a long history of imbalance between center for both in terms of you know, the absence of representation in terms of those in the margins, but also the absence of economic investment in infrastructure investment is really important. i went to conclude that, that my answer by saying actually we also have to understand demographic change to them itself, the greatest october area, which, you know, i think houses approximately, maybe 7 to 8000000. i need to check that number is actually extremely diverse. it's not the heart of the 19 fifties and sixties. it's a hot cold that encompasses all of the different ethnic groups. in other words, at the battle between these 2 generals is not hitting one specific ethnic group and another. it is hitting all of the ethnic groups from the entire country, all of whom have families and relatives in the greater la area. and i think that's really important to emphasize. yeah, well, what do you make if cal,

it's points there? i think it's very well said, well put the, i just need to add some important points here. there are 3 levels to this conflict that is the conflict. conflicts you a issue are personality issue between behind on humanity. and there is a dyslexia we would have to remember that the was, was used by sheer to again, is the army and the islamist use team as, as, as, as a part of military force that they could use any time. there is a code in cartoon. so there is this level and that is the 2nd level, which is the dynamics, the intended dynamics between the artist and the islamist group is because we have to remember that that is i miss the day. they have got under it from starting 1989. they started getting rid of the professional officers and they started

ideology, isaac, the army itself, and her graduate lead. they moved all their defense, a defense duties to their intelligence department. and when her at the civil war erupted in that ford they, they used the artist. if which was at that time, harrison, her daughter, ah, so there is there is this dynamics or the 2nd living at the fair living. we have to remember very well that the social basis from which our janet and hey media has been recruiting his forces are areas of that for an inside that for mainly or the other types. it's only recently that he has is started incorporating some indigenous the african tribes. so with the question is, are these, i mean, ironically these are the areas that are mostly rich in sudan. i mean,

if you think about what the professor has just said, i can just add to it the dad the deep in order it to a to, to, to grow agriculture in the sahara desert of north and sudan unit $4000.00 per foot . then compared to only $134.00 in that for all could do fun. so it, we, we need to think about a marginalization about center, but they're fairly dynamics, but we can't ignored the fact that there is a historical tension between from the time of them idea between the people of western sudan and the people of a sense that here are the people who are okay, who have dominated the politics one almost 70 years. yes. and the doctor's union has just put out a statement saying that's at least $74.00 people have been killed and wistar for and dare that locals are they are now beginning to arm themselves believing that

the conflict is inevitably going to reignite ethnic violence in the area i mean, how alarming is that, roger, do you think in and, and do you think that, that is what is going to happen? i mean, it's quite alarming. duffle has had a long, long history of a conflict and whose patrons are kind of, you know, shaped by the politics in the center again to adding to yet create, met. and dr. highlights points about kind of, you know, the center periphery kind of, you know, and framework or lance of trying to understand how, how to down functions. but i think it's also very important to look beyond the idea of ethnicity as just as a racial marker and entered on the city is a political construct. one that's been concocted, and driven by the state, with the purpose of constantly dating its power. and

a central state that's quite meek, whose reach is it is very limited, have sought to use a certain kind of ethnic groups in certain parts of the country to try and kind of, you know, manage and punch the date power. when i think of ethnicity, that's what i think called a not you know, people mention marcus. yeah. yeah. hold a minute. is the warri now that both the army and the record support forces? i basically go to recruit different groups. recruit diff, different ethnic minority minority specified to fight one another on their behalf. is that what you think could happen? i, i think that that attempt, since the period of my but she is that injection of interethnic hatred and even a rated them on the part of the she that he used not only to help to execute his proxy war in and out of war, but also to put down the revolution of the pro democracy for the if you may recall

it, the beginning of the uprising thing, no, december 2018 and an early 2019. he accused the protesters of being from death for interestingly enough, that was when the slogan could call in a dashboard where all from gas for really emerged as a popular one, i think frankly in costume itself. if not elsewhere, there is the recognition that, that this is a political crisis in a typical competition between 2 generals representing their own interest and the interest of a small group of allies. in the case of general baton. of course, a form, a members of the national congress party indicate the committee, small group of, of militia. i know that the number is large, but these are paid and this is what we mean by the mercenaries. they're not actually recruited on the basis biology or the city they're recruited as a result of money being paid. and so i think that generally the students people absolutely understand that this is not one of your ethnic conflict. in fact,

that has been tried in the past, and so these are fully aware and you can see back and talk to them. i don't see that that is actually going to work. that doesn't mean it. the violence will diminish or it will be little bit easier. these are very strong courses. i want to also add to a dock at that point in terms of how the city plays out to dan. i visited that for many times, even during the war. and i want to really be very clear the notion of arabs versus africans in dat 4, which is so popular and so easy. it's a marker from our experience and actually, you know, personal and also in other ways in terms of research as well. it is really linguistic markers and for the pounds in addition to that issues of economy, livelihoods, and there is no other way to understand the history of income marriage. i can tell you a number of different anecdotes when i was there in terms of the relationships between the different ethnic groups that, that identified based on their linguistic markers or either originally for or our,

or our language. so the issue of the pastor list versus, you know, non pass for the agricultural, it's really the primary way back for you and define themselves. it's important because that's the only way we can understand issues of conflict resolution. we're going are going to be so important. ok, i want to move on to saddam's natural resources, of course, which it has an abundance is gold, productive farmland, oil. all the things we mentioned in the story at the beginning of the program. and of course, the resources that the nile in the read see coastline throw off as well. well, laid, obviously this huge foreign interest and so down and they have been that the many, many years. how is that impacting the current conflicts? do you think ah, before answering that question, i would want to, i light something very, very, very quickly. i mean, if we look at the conflict from an anthropological or social, logical, or perspective, then what the professor has said is absolutely right. but if we look at it from the

political perspective that the government, the islamist group has ethnicity is politics and politics. ice is nifty. then we, we look when we look at the id piece, we find 2500000 from is strictly indigenous african population basically miss elliot ford going due to daniel as of our. so here is where the conflict takes some sort of an ethnic deal. but to go back to our question, ah, which is very important, or wagner? now with a gentleman, he, me, t, they are doing explorations in, in southern that fall in the areas of sun go and the dorm, ah, they the, they have a very bigger plot of land or from which they are exploring gold and embezzling into r, u e. or russia and that the presents are almost 77 percent of so dance export of

gold. so here if we look at the issue of gold, it's a, it's a very sensitive issue. you do have uranium in a. 2 g balin, nowhere or i would say in a neil n, as in some parts of donald good to fun. so that what makes the conflict a little bit there at the is, is the fact that the resources are in the areas that are mostly conflicts. you well ah, if niss it, the wise, i mean the way that the islam is, have did even the conflict her as made it very difficult to separate the issue of ethnicity from the issue of a resorts. you see, live, we think of double armored a from weeds to him if he had been exploring god for years at that belongs to a 17 or tribe. i mean, quote unquote the banner seen that weird driven away by

a some out is eguard groups and then later that the islamist or basically omitted. but she had the subdivided, there is a guard into mad maria and mohammed, so they have played a very devilish, are drawn in at separating the if miss it is in that for and more importantly, a more grevious, the linking it to the issue of the sources rush it, obviously egypt has a huge taken in what happens in sudan, not least because there's tens of thousands of people like yourself and your family that, that are trying to fleecy down and, and get into egypt. what is it? it's interest there at this point in time and, and we're, if any, does prison ccs allegiance lie with to it to which side means and should on you should be part of egypt until independence. and i think the ties are not just, you know, historically social communities kind of,

intertwined through marriage and, you know, and as i took the right to move it, why can we not, but also the political system standards. political system builds to advise you to be on a kind of the, the historical institutions that it, that it had been inherited from its ty and being under. from the time it was a condominium. and i'm being under the protection of a doctorate, of egypt, of sorts for this kind of, you know, translated in the more recent periods of kind of, you know, a problematic political relationship between and, and, you know, the 2 military leads and to egypt, you know, the the kind of, you know, system, political system and governance system has in place and it's relies to a large degree. i'm a kind of, you know, securing it south southern southern border and also security kind of an acquisition

. i put in south a, 2000 and military needs as well. so to systems based world on each other. if khaled, i mean who's backing who here and why do you think which countries a, a, back in the army in which of breaking the record support forces at this point in time and, and how much influence do they have over both of both sides? well, i think the case of egypt is very well known that in general, egypt is backing hon as an individual even if they are opposed to the remnants or rather that they stand missteps, form and members of the national conference party. cuz obviously egypt is opposed to their samus movements in egypt and in the region. nevertheless, this is america, convenience. egypt has always wanted a reliable from their perspective stable allies, the relationship between hon and cc close egypt ones that not only for strategic reasons, but also for economic reasons as well. and of course,

the concern for them at the moment is, are the night and waters and their competition and conflict with the job. and that, of course, the egypt is an exit central kind of issue. so their relationship with port hon at their counting on. and i'm not sure that that's actually a good calculation, that somehow they could have a complete influence over him without having to deal with a slam as to the national congress party, and many of whom have been released from prison the last few days for example. so i think that egypt to find itself in a difficult situation in that respect, i think historically as you know, the united app and with assisted and supported him at 1st in 2015 when they utilized him as one of the board, hong defend mercenaries to the war in yemen and of course that they have interest and have had in terms of the gold trait. there is no question there. that's not a secret. i do think calculations have changed the end of the war and yemen. i think the participation of the u. a, e and saudi arabia in the quad to over the framework as we meant. i signals that

change and strategic kind of perspective having to do with the fact that instability is something that the way he of course and their allies, saudi arabia is concerned about out for a variety of reasons, including their interest in the red sea area and, and that's why they entered into negotiations. that's really important. daisha wagner in russia oftentimes is over sensationalized. i don't believe that russia has as much influence. and i think that my guest and have a perhaps different opinions. i do think that their relationship between gold and wagner group and, and him at the is important. i don't think he's the most important him and he has a wealth of other resources. and that's really important. all of that is to say that there are changes in the strategic calculations at the moment. i feel with the expansion of this conflict and, and the way that is threatening that kind of strategic interest of all of these actors that had found their clients in sudan. phoebe reliable as will lead them

from my perspective. and i like to hear what the guest my colleagues say will have to lead them to actually try to do what they can to stabilize the situation, at least in terms of succession of hostilities. and already we're seeing just statements about the political documents from these actors. yeah, we're, we're rapidly running out of time to, to finish with you. how does this conflict in and how soon do you do you think we hope you'll be able to return to sit down? and i'm hoping so. i mean my family by many on their lives or is it on their houses? and that's where the children go to school, and most of us are, even if we live at dias more, we are connected to to 9 in many ways we will travel and you any one. so wow, i mean more than once. and so yes, i mean, i don't see like i'm hoping that the competency is because there is no kind of tangible,

long time and kind of and can you say an alternative. otherwise we're talking about again and, and migration crisis. how, how, how people. oh my go is generation supposed to kind of exits, leave the country when you know in the seventy's, how are they supposed to kind of nissan. so, and so all these questions definitely you can say all of these issues are definitely going to raises, concerns about the need for studies and, and for people to be able to make a safe passage back to their home and their lives. okay, we're going to have to leave it there unfortunately, but thank you very much. all 3 of you for joining us holiday modality, roger mccully, and while lead debo, thank you very much for joining us on the inside story. and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, al jazeera dot com, if a further discussion go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com forward slash

ha inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter handle. is that a j inside story for me? tell mccrae and the whole team here, bye for now. ah . a lot. well, the law with neither side, willing to negotiate is the ukraine war becoming a forever war is america's global leadership, increasingly fragile. what will us politics look like as we had to the presidential election of 2024? the quizzical look us politics, the bottom line. i'm a like

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are telling us that because of the lack of water, they have started to notice different types of insects they had never seen before. the stream weather conditions have also cost sure to grass, rain and water to view the impacting the captain of many of the farmers in the area . ah, ah, you're watching the news, allan life or the headquarters in time. you navigate me off in the next 60 minute, heavy battles continuing to done despite a renewed seas fire causing widespread damage to infrastructure and hospitals. an exodus from our for stretches neighboring charge resources. it's reporting the highest number for.