yann's grip on power ah i'm going to live as is where a new documentary follows his nonviolent campaign to bring down a corrupt regime, tarnishing outcome with a democratic lumber delusion i am not alone arminius, velvet revolution on al jazeera 2 weeks the violence of plunge threw down into turmoil, hundreds of people have been killed and tens of thousands of fled. the country is home to more than $500.00 ethnic groups and as rich and natural resources. are these factors linked to the conflicts? this is inside story. ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm tom mccrae, sedans people are once again living in fear,

suffering the consequences of all out conflict between the army and paramilitary rapid support forces. the cause is multi pronged sudan, has a troubled history. it's diverse population is composed of different ethnicities and societal groups. and it is rich and natural resources will be speaking to our panel of guests about how these factors could be influencing the current fighting and so downs future. but 1st to alex beard has this report. 2 weeks of waking up to the sound of air strikes and gunfire. sudanese are caught up in a battle that's been in the making for a long time. a political power struggle rooted, an ethnic and regional divisions. further complicated by the fight for control over natural resources such as minerals and oil. at the center of the conflict, a 2 generals, the head of the army, abdel fata albert han, and the commander of the rapid support forces. mohammed hummed on the gallow known as his mid t. both men,

i know to africa fairly well. and because i've been going on yet, this is not a conflict that i just book. and so i am optimistic that they leave as i be. you have to get that. what if god is going to yield some rain, but it's going to be a straight forward. but su, done has more than $500.00 ethnic groups. and politics has long been dominated by an elite based in and around her tomb. but han has traditionally gone at support from his fellow student. these arabs, while humidity has a significant face among non arabic ethnic groups and waste and su, done including food. this is partly because he's from a non arab tribe. the mohammed both sides have tens of thousands of fighters, foreign backers, and vast resources at the disposal. the army controls most of the economy, but the paramilitary group, overseas gold, mining areas. the country is africa is 3rd largest producer of the precious missile

. and in 2021 about 90 tons of gold on the global market came from sudan. it also has deposits of copper i in car. mm hm. and uranium, as well as abundant arable land, which supports the agriculture depend to the economy. through don is located on the nile river vital for irrigation and hydro, electric power generation, was shared with egypt and e. c. o pierre at borders. another 5 countries, nearly all of which a maya and conflicts, the country has strategic ports on the read. see the only points of export for around $100.00. 35000 barrels of oil a day. most of it from south threw done. despite this, the united nations classified to don as a low income country. if this violence continues, it could spillover and effects, regional access to water, mineral exports, and oil supplies. and then these, the unfolding humanitarian crisis, the fighting has killed hundreds of people and injured thousands. this is shortage

of food and fuel and hospitals are out of service. many countries have evacuated, the citizens and tens of thousands of people have played, all of which is pushing a base a future for certain needs even further out of reach. alex bid for inside story. ah. okay, joining me now are our guests in montreal at color, mcdonny, associate professor of political science and islamic studies and chairman of the african studies program at mcgill university in cairo. roger macau. he, editor of africa, arguments a platform for news investigation, and opinion, and also of sedans, unfinished democracy. and here in doha, we have a while leads madiba, the founder and president of this sudan policy for him. thank you very much for joining us. roger. if i could begin with you, you've just arrived in egypt after fleeing sudan, can you just give us

a brief explanation of how difficult that journey walls and, and how hard it was to to escape certain? and sir, it's very, very difficult. and the reality is it, in sudan, or people living in cartoon have been kind of under threats of a conflict hymn book baldwin for the loss turn 15 days or so. are all scrambling to the sudan and soon with the and you know them through that route. they know most and which they're familiar with with which has egypt. they've got thousands and thousands of people who are on the team who are taking the same on the same road, taking the same routes towards the same kind of crossing points. the situation of the border is it isn't, but it is very kind of a difficult and protracted and, and the crossing point itself, again,

is a and it's not a human kind of, you know, a crossing point. it's a cargo and so it's not set up related to receive thousands and thousands of people every day. so you've got a situation where people have been kind of spotting for weeks now. i mean, it took me weeks to get through with almost no access to and any, the basic and services that people need to maintain themselves or food is very, i mean there's no food and water. and i mean, there are no bathrooms and the security situation itself is quite dire. and you know, the state itself, on a case on the sudan side is not, i mean, it access to information in order to give you an update on what you need to do in order to get out. and it's not at the level that is required to help people move on

in straightforward manner. yes, it's hard to imagine the difficulties that you and the tens and tens of thousands of other students have had to go through just to, to get to safety. but we are extremely grateful that you and your family are safe at this point in time. colored. i'd like to talk to you a little bit about ethnic divisions in sudan and, and how that might have played a role in the lead up to this conflict. i mean, is a simply a war between 2 generals basically buying for power and influence themselves, or do you think that there are deeper ethnic divisions to this conflict? i would say that it is not so much ethnic, but a political crisis, of course reflected in the competition, political and military competition between these 2 generals. but i think the notion that this is an ethnic conflict is some things that are oftentimes, you know,

not corrected. there is no correlation in africa or sudan, frankly, if you don't mind me saying between the density and the number, ethnic groups and, and conflict. and so as, as easy, it is, it, as it is to say, i reduce this conflict to, into ethnic conflict. it's just not the case. i would suggest. and my guest, of course, can chime in that i, historically, the issue in sudan is an imbalance between the center and the periphery. that actually gives us a much more, a better understanding not only of the present conflicts, but also the decades really in particularly the last 30 years under the rule of a sheet in which the primary investment of the country. of course, of course, of 60 percent of the national budget under she'd went to the military. that remaining went into a kind of limited geographical triangle around her to them around the river area. specifically, i don't go out of the plate and say that, that just wouldn't you know,

full well. and that really had to do with the concentration of power to stay at the level of the center of the state, the dates back to the colonial era. understanding it that way, that is the conflict. a historical one between center periphery can help you understand the conflict between you know, the national army. of course, that is a man to buy many from the central part of the country and came back to himself from the so called periphery. but who does not necessarily represent it that he does not represent the majority of that for you. and as you can imagine, in addition to that, that a kind of lens of looking at it from center and periphery. vantage point also helps us understand the issue and conflict in eastern. so dad as an example of a marginalized cultural and politically and economically historically. and what we call the 2 areas of, of, of the fan and the blue nile. i'm understanding it between as a history a long history of the balance between center for both in terms of you know, the absence of representation in terms of those in the margins,

but also the absence of economic investment in infrastructure. investment is really important. i went to conclude that, that my answer by saying actually we also have to understand demographic change form itself the greatest october area, which, you know, i think houses approximately, maybe 7 to 8000000. i need to check that number is actually extremely diverse. it's not the heart of the 19 fifties and sixties. it's a hot cold that encompasses all of the different ethnic groups. in other words, at the battle between these 2 generals is not in one specific ethnic group and another, it is hitting all of the ethnic groups from the entire country, all of whom have families and relatives in the greater area. and i think that's really important to emphasize. well, what do you make if cal, it's points there? i think it's very well said the, well, put the, i just need to add some important points here. there are 3 levels to this conflict

that is the conflict. conflicts you a issue, a personality issue between behind on humidity and there is a disturbance. we would have to remember that the was was used by sheer to again, is the army and the islamist use team as, as, as, as a part of military force that they could use any time. there is a code in cartoon. so there is this level and there is the 2nd level, which is the dynamics, the intended dynamics between the artist and the islamist group is because we have to remember that that is i miss the day. they have got under it from starting 1989. they started getting rid of the professional officers and they started ideologies in the army itself. and a gradually, they moved all their defense,

a defense duties to the intelligence department. and when her at the civil war erupted in that for the they use the artist if which was at that time herself, her daughter. so there is, there is this dynamics or the 2nd living at the fair glove in we have to remember very well that the social basis from which our janet and humidity has been recruiting, his forces are alias of that for an inside. therefore, mainly are the arab tribes. it's only recently that he has is started incorporating some indigenous the african tribes. so with the question is, are these, i mean, ironically these are the alias that are mostly rich in sudan. i mean, if you think about what the professor has just said, i can just add to it the dad the deep in order it to a to do,

to grow agriculture in the sahara desert of north and sudan unit, $40000.00 spirit for then compared to only $134.00 in that for all could do fun. so we, we need to think about marginalization about center, but every dynamics. but we can't ignore the fact that there is a historical tension between from the time of the medea, between the people of western sudan and the people of a sent that here are the people who are, again, who have dominated the politics, one almost 70 years. yes, and the doctor's union has just put out a statement saying that's at least 74 people have been killed and wistar for and dare that locals are they are now beginning to arm themselves, believing that the conflict is inevitably going to reignite ethnic violence in the area i mean how alarming is that raja do you think in and and do you think that

that is what is going to happen? i mean it's quite alarming duffle has had a long, long history on a contract. it's a who's patrons are kind of, you know, shaped by the politics in the center, again to adding to e at 38 met. and dr. highlights points about kind of, you know, the center periphery kind of, you know, and i'm showing like lance of trying to understand how, how to down functions. but i think it's also very important to look beyond the idea of efficiency as just as a racial marker. and entered on ethnicity is a political construct one that's been concocted, and driven by the state with the purpose of constantly dating its power. and a central state that's quite meek was reach, is a, is very limited. have saw to use a certain kind of ethnic groups in certain parts of the country to try and kind of,

you know, manage and punch with a power when i think of ethnicity, that's what i think of a not, you know, people's mission markers. can you hold a minute? is the warri now that both the army and the record support forces? it basically go to recruit different groups, recruit diff, different ethnic minority minority specified to fight one another on their behalf. is that what you think could happen? and i, i think that that attempt, since the, the, at the period of my, she is that injection of interethnic hatred and even a rated them on the part of the, of the she that he used not only to help to execute his proxy war in that war but also to put down the revolution, the pro democracy forces. and if you may recall at the beginning of the uprising thing, december 2018 and, and early 2019,

he accused the protesters of being from death for interestingly enough, that was when the slogan could call in a dashboard where all from gas for really emerged as a popular one, i think, frankly, in the dorm itself, if not elsewhere, there is no recognition that this is a political crisis. and a typical competition between 2 generals representing their own interest and the interest of a small group of allies. in the case of general baton. of course, a form, a members of the national congress party, indicates the permit, the small group of, of the militia. i know that the number is large, but these are paid and this is what we mean by the mercenaries. they're not actually recruited on the basis biology. or if they're recruited as a result of money being paid. and so i think that generally the students, people absolutely understand that this is not one of your ethnic conflict. in fact, that has been tried in the past. and so these are fully aware and you can see back and talk to them. i don't see that that is actually going to work. that doesn't mean it, the violence will diminish or it will be little bit easier. these are very strong

forces. i want to also add to a dock around that point in terms of how the city plays out to dan. i visited that for many times, even during the war. and i want to really be very clear the notion of arabs versus africans in death for which is so popular and so easy. it's a marker from our experience and actually, you know, personal and also in other ways in terms of research as well. it is really linguistic markers and for that count, in addition to that issues of economy, livelihoods, there is no other way to understand the history of income marriage. i can tell you a number of different anecdotes when i was there in terms of the relationships between the different ethnic groups that, that identified based on their linguistic markers either either originally for or our or audi language. so the issue of the pastor list versus, you know, non pass for the agricultural is really the primary way for us to find themselves.

it's important because that's the only way we can understand issues of conflict resolution, which are going to be so important. ok, i want to move on to saddam's natural resources, of course, which it has an abundance is gold, productive farmland, oil. all the things we mentioned in the story at the beginning of the program. and of course, the resources that the nile in the read see coastline throw off as well. well, laid, obviously this huge foreign interest and so down and they have been that the many, many years. how is that impacting the current conflicts? do you think ah, before answering that question, i would want to, i light something very, very, very quickly. i mean, if we look at the conflict from an anthropological or social, logical, or perspective, then what the professor has said is absolutely right. but if we look at it from the political perspective that the government, the islamist group has ethnicity, his politics and politics, heis is nifty. then we,

we look when we look at the id piece, we find 2500000 from aesthetically indigenous african population. basically miss elliot ford going judeo as of our so here is where the conflict takes some sort of an ethnic deal. but to go back to our question, ah, which is very important, or wagner now with a gentleman, he me, t they are doing explorations in, in southern that fall in the areas of sun go. and the dorm, are they the, they have a very bigger plot of land or from which they are exploring gold and embezzling indoor r, u e, or russia. and that, that he presents are almost 77 percent of so dance export of gold. so here if we look at the issue of gold, it's a, it's a very sensitive issue. you do have your any am in

a. 2 g battler noah or i would say in a nealon as an acre, some parts of donald could do fun. so that what makes the conflict a little bit there at the is, is the fact that the resources are in the areas that are mostly conflicts. well, if niss it, the wise, i mean the way that the islam is, have driven the conflict. her has made it very difficult to separate the issue of ethnicity from the issue of resorts. you see, live, we think of double armored a from weeds he made. he had been exploring god for years at that belongs to a certain type. i mean quote unquote the banner seen that weird driven away by a some out is a god grooves. and then later that the islamist or basically all martin bashir, the subdivided there is a god into mad maria and mohammed. so they have played

a very devilish, are drawn in at separating the if miss it is in that for and more importantly, a more grevious, the linking it to the issue of the sources. rush it, obviously egypt has a huge taken in what happens in sudan, not least because there's tens of thousands of people like yourself and your family that are, that are trying to flee to down and, and get into egypt. what is its interest there? at this point in time and, and we're, if any, does present ccs allegiance lie with to to which side means and should on you should be positive egypt until independence. and i think the ties are not just, you know, historically social communities kind of intertwined to marriage. and, you know, and i to right to move it, why can we not but also the political system standards,

political system built to advise you to be on a kind of the, the historical institutions that it, that it had inherited from its time being under, from the time it was a condominium, and i'm being under the protector of doctorates of egypt, of sorts, for this kind of, you know, translated in the more recent periods of kind of, you know, one of a problematic political relationship between and, and, you know, the 2 military leads and to egypt, you know, the, the kind of, you know, system, political system and governance system has in place. and it's relies to logic we, i'm a kind of, you know, securing it south southern southern border and also security kind of an acquisition . i couldn't south a 2000 and military needs as well. so to systems based, we'll do each other. if khaled,

i mean who's backing who here and why do you think which countries a, a back in the army in which of backing the record support forces at this point in time and, and how much influence do they have over both of both sides? well, i think the case of egypt is very well known that in general, egypt is backing hon as an individual even if they are opposed to the remnants or rather the de sandman stamps form a members of the national congress party. because obviously egypt opposed to their established movements in egypt and in the region. nevertheless, this is america of convenience. egypt has always wanted to reliable from their perspective stable allied the relationship and hon and cc close egypt. ones that are not only for strategic reasons, but also for economic reasons as well. and of course, the concern for them at the moment is our benign waters and their competition and conflict with and that of course, the egypt and ex, essential kind of issue. so their relationship with the hon that they are counting

on. and i'm not sure that that's actually a good calculation. that somehow they could have a complete influence over him without having to deal with a slam as to the national congress party, many of whom have been released from prison the last few days for example. so i think the egypt is finding itself in a difficult situation in that respect, i think historically, as you know, the united states has assisted and supported him at 1st in 2015 when they utilized him, as one of the for hom, defend mercenaries to the war in yemen and of course that they have interest and have had in terms of the gold trade, there is no question there. that's not a secret. i do think calculations have changed the end of the war and yemen. i think the participation of the u. a. e. and saudi arabia in the quad to either over the framework as we meant a signal that change in strategic kind of perspective having to do with the fact that instability is something that the way he of course and their allies,

saudi arabia is concerned about out for a variety of reasons including their interest in the red sea area and, and that's why they entered into negotiation. that's really important. daisha wagner in russia, oftentimes it's over sensationalized. i don't believe that russia has as much influence. and i think that my guest and have a perhaps different opinions. i do think that the relationship between gold and the wagner group and, and him at the is important. i don't think he's the most important him actually has a wealth of other resources. and that's really important, all of that is to say that there are changes in the strategic calculations at the moment. i feel with the expansion of this conflict and, and the way that it's threatening that kind of strategic interest of all of these actors that had found these, their clients in sudan. phoebe reliable as will lead them from my perspective. and i like to hear what the guest, yeah, my colleagues say will have to lead them to actually try to do what they can to

stabilize the situation, at least in terms of succession of hostilities. and already we're seeing to statements about the political sacraments from these advert. yeah, we're, we're rapidly running out of time rush. i was able to, to finish with you, how does this conflict in and how soon do you do you think, well, hope you'll be able to return to sit down. and yeah, i'm hoping so. i mean my family by many on a sunday is their lives or is it are their houses and that's where their children go to school. and most of us are, even if we live at dias was, we are connected to tonight in many ways we will travel and you any one's which well, i mean more than once. and so yes, i mean, i don't see like i'm hoping that the competency is because there is no kind of tangible, long time and kind of and can you say an alternative. and otherwise we're talking about again and, and migration crisis. how, how, how people. oh,

my go was generation supposed to kind of exit, leave the country when you know in the seventy's, how are they supposed to kind of nice that so and so all these questions definitely say all of these issues are definitely going to raises concerns about the need for studies and, and for people to be able to make it safe passage back to their homes and their lives. ok, we're gonna have to leave it there unfortunately, but thank you very much. all 3 of you for joining us holiday modality, roger mccully. and while lead debo, thank you very much for joining us on the inside story and thank you to for what you can see the program again. any time by visiting our website, al jazeera dot com for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter handle . is that a j inside story from natal? mccrae and the whole team here. bye for now.

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investigating the use and abuse of power across the globe on al jazeera. ah, i marlene side indo hi year top stories on out there that been gun battles and strikes in su dawn. despite the extension of a ceasefire. the army and the rapids support forces have been locked in a power struggle for nearly 2 weeks with civilians caught in the crossfire. several morgan has more from car to so fighting is still ongoing in many parts of the capital hudson. despite the latest, the fire and civilians say that.