waited on al jazeera, we understand the differences and similarities of cultures across the world. so no matter how you take it out, you 0. we're bringing the news and current affairs that matter to you count as 0. ah . what's your 0 with me? is the whole rahman endeavor, a reminder of all top news stories. there are reports of heavy fighting around the presidential palace and suit. odds capital call to him. despite and extended ceasefire. the conflict between the army and paramilitary rapid support forces is now in its 3rd week there, but more who has more from the capital. many people say that they've been trying to make their way out of the capital, but because of lack of financial means that has been very hard to do so many remained trapped inside their homes for the 3rd week. now going on to the 3rd week

with no access to basic needs, like hospitals are running water or power. there's thing that they're waiting to see if there would be any low in fighting because they've given up hope of a complete cease fire. and they say that if that happens, them either try to make their way out for basic commodities or leave the capitol like many others have done so before. well, as he do managed escape hall leaving sit down anyway that they can of us all carrying nearly 2000 evacuation that arrives at the port of jet that in saudi arabia, citizens of saudi arabia and iran, amongst those on board the united nations and go it is don, had told out there that if the rival sides refuse to negotiate the risk, international isolation matters l. e, and see what regional countries and the international community must say. that if the situation continues, even if one side winds the fight, that side would not be accepted internationally. now, if aside, refuses negotiations and refuses reconciliation,

it will not be accepted internationally, regionally. and i think also nationally in sudan authorities, him crimea blaming a ukrainian drains, trying for a blast to fuel death. in the port city of sylvester pole. the storage tank exploded on saturday, causing a fire covering 1000 square meters. the governor of the russian and ex peninsula says the blaze has now been extinguished. this incident will not affect the basketball fuel supplies. this is the reserve depot, which is not used in the cities day to day needs as well the emissions from the burning of petroleum products rushes consumer watchdog is assessing them. but our preliminary estimation suggest there shouldn't be any excess of the norms. polish please have sees the building of a russian embassy school in walsall. a move denounced by moscow as illegal offices broke the locks of the building, which was leased by russia after stuff refused to let them in. poland froze the

embassies accounts following russia's invasion of ukraine. the foreign ministry said the building belong to the polish state rather than bassett, a tall sold as moscow will respond to reduce its an illegal act, an invasion of a diplomatic side. we consider the russian embassy school as part of our diplomatic mission, where our employees, including teachers, live and work said this is definitely classified as illegal a breach of the vienna convention on diplomatic relations. so naturally, we will issue a process. the sister of north korea leader has warned that an agreement between south korea and the u. s. to strengthen nuclear deterrence will lead to serious danger. kimmy jones says, appealing, young will have to perfect its own nuclear deterrence in response to operation agreement was announced on wednesday. francis calling for us by john to remove checkpoints on the lunch in colorado. it's in the road connecting armenia with the dispute at the corner cutoff region. the check points were established last weekend

. please decide to go to break a protesting guineas capital, consecrate. demonstrations have become violent in the bun, better district use, the shortages of electricity. please eventually had to flee as protested that several vehicles on fire. italy has restored access to the chat g p t chat. but after banning it last month, over data privacy concerns, the firm which developed the artificial intelligence software says it's address those issues with new information and tools on its website. software can mimic voice it and writing styles. and astronaut from the united arab emirates has made history becoming the 1st arab to walk in space silvan. and the id stepped out of the international space station for more than 6 hours. last month, he became our bathroom to embark on a 6 month space mission. those were the had another buck with more news and half now here on al jazeera. next it's the bottom line to stay with us.

the news. ready hi, i'm steve clements and i have a question. what happens if the u. s. government can't pay its debts? let's get to the bottom line. the. have you ever been in a situation where you've maxed out your credit cards and desperately need more money? but you've got know where to turn. well, i hope not, but that's exactly where the u. s. government may be right now. america has hit the ceiling, legally mandated by congress, on how much it can borrow. the limit was set last year at $31.00 trillion dollars, but the government already birth through that by january. now the 2 parties are gearing for a showdown to negotiate a new temporary limit by june. the republicans will control the house or using the opportunity to demand major cuts and rollbacks, the president jo biden's, agenda,

especially those related clean energy and food assistance. the poor american, the white house says no way, just give us a new limit and then we'll talk one. so who wins in this game of political brinkman ship? and is there really any limit to the runaway spending of the us government? today we're talking with bobby cogan, who worked in the biden white house as an advisor to the director of office of management and budget. he's now the senior director of federal budget policy at the center for american progress. and gordon gray, who served as a staff member for the senate budget committee and is currently the director of fiscal policy at the american action forum. let me just start out to figure that one of use a democrat, one of your public. we're not going to tell the audience which yet, but, but let me just start for a 2nd with you, bobby, and ask, why is this such a big deal this debate about debt limit? can't the united states government just print more money, print it's way out of this problem and deal with this. what it, what are the really the dynamics of this debate that many people are fearful could lead to the 1st serious default by the u. s. government?

sure, and 1st as you, thank you so much for having me on. so we are one of only 2 countries in the world with a fixed dollar debt. when a handful countries in the world also, you know, have debt limits of another kind, you know, set as a percent of the economy. but we're one of the only 2 in this way. and ultimately what it is, is we harkening back in targeting back hundreds of years. we used to have the issue each we a congress have to approve each issuance of that in a law. and we change that to set a dollar limit. now every, every so often depending on kind of how much we raised it and when what our new deficits are, we have to keep increasing. and again, again, last we will default and this is really a question of whether it is we want to actually the partner that which i think was great here would be catastrophic if we didn't pair. you agree, it would be catastrophic in you work center for me. i can progress a lot of democrats work center for american progress. do they take seriously debt

and default? ah, so i think there's, i think there's a robust debate about the net effects of debt on, on the economy. most people will say that all being equal, more debt, as a percent of the economy, might kind of have some, some sapping growth course. and they can get to this waiter. all else is never equal. you have to figure out what it is you do to lower the data, whether the net of whether the effects of worrying the debt or worse or better than the effects of what you did the, where we're at. but i think most people agree that all else being equal, you'd want lower data percent g, d p especially during good times and higher during bad times, deliberately to kind of boost aggregate demand. the threat of default is of course, really, really, really major. we might have had a technical glitch here there before, but we've never deliberately default the default and our dad because why would we, why would we deliberately say, i know we promised we pay this money, but we won't. that would be catastrophic. no one would trust the u. s. government word it would a would send interest rate, skyrocketing,

obviously would cripple the economy and take and destroy many jobs. and then in addition to that, we wouldn't make our payments and that would hurt all the people who rely on those payments. whether they're government contractors or social security recipients, or disabled veterans, or the people who's, who we help with food on their table or you know, you name it the government, there's a lot of things, equipment. we had a debt level, mandated debt level in 2002 of $6.00 trillion dollars today when it's $31.00 trillion dollars. how did that little number become so big? well, a couple things. there will, 1st of all, one of the, one of the challenges in using nominal numbers is that we allow, you know, decades of inflation just kind of send those up anyway. but unfortunately, over the last 20 years we've had global wars. a, you know, once in a 100 year pandemic, we've had a great recession. we've had somewhat calamitous events confront this country.

and we are a privilege to live in a country that has the wherewithal to respond robustly. and it's actually interesting, as we think about the current debate right now, which is it used to be that congress had to pass a law to issue is basically a single issue of debt and right so rare. but obviously the federal budget has changed substantially. and now the debt limit acts as the limit used to basically be an allowance so that they didn't have to pass individual laws. but we've gotten some, what's addicted to deficit spending and, and the growth of indebtedness that, that dynamic has flipped entirely. why isn't there more discussion about a defense budget this that's approaching a trillion dollars? that seems to be sake, sacrosanct for some reason, even in both parties, where you've got a debate on what kinds of cuts you have to put in place to either protect social

security and medicare. or you have some republicans who actually want to cut a social security and medicare in order to keep those trust funds solvent. so unpack it for us. sure. and so i'm part of the issue behind all of this is over 70 percent of every non interest dollar we spend goes directly the people that's in the form of stuff like medicare and social security and medicaid and snap. it's also in the form of, you know, kind of direct payments to help people for their groceries or i or dad. yeah. how people for the groceries or, or help with child care. so that's kind of over 70 percent of the rate remaining bit is sort of it's resurgence investment in the future. it's transportation infrastructure and it's the military. and so part of the issue behind all of this is that the government, the government's doing is quite popular. and so figuring out what you would cut 1st of all, it's probably unpopular to do it. and 2nd of all, it might have deleterious effects to do it because most of what we're doing is kind

of directly helping people in the moment are investing in the future. as for what the, you know, what it is that why it is that the military budget is kind of largely untouched. and the rest of it is kind of always in the chopping block. that's in issue of politics. that military spending as a percent of g d p, has declined significantly on the 20th century. but of course that there are 2 big reasons. so again, it's a big dollar amount of dollars, but it's, it's been declining their kind of 2 reasons. they're one, you know, we used to be engaged in massive wars all the time. and now while we obviously are always engaged overseas, right. on the full, you know, the full kind of breadth of the way we are is significantly down. and the 2nd one is that the u. s. is significantly bigger than every other country. so if the u. s . spends on 3 percent of its g d p. i think it's a little bit more, but it spends 3 percent of its g d, p in the military. that is a lot more than another country. you see the status of the us spends more,

you know, around as much next 10 countries combined. we're not spending 10 times as much as percent of g d p that we're big country. and so we now we can do a lot. gordon counts for the state of play is right now. you know how speaker kevin mccarthy has put out a plan. yep. and the plan says let's keep so security and medicare solvent where they are, but he's saying to get the debt ceiling increase that we want. we've got to have cuts in other areas that the democrats and president biden has responded very, very strongly against leader mccarthy. speaker mccarthy. how, what's your take on that? say to play. i think the legislation that the speaker put together is very much an opening bid. essentially the, the white house and congressional democrats pointed their fingers and kevin mccarthy says, you know, put up or shut up. now this week is where the rubber meets the road. and he, it's now on him to find the votes for this proposal. i wouldn't stop you there for

kevin mccarthy defined the votes for his own proposal. right. might not have. he's the speaker of the house. he's got a majority in the house, might not have the vote for his own proposal. it is, it is possible that he doesn't have a vote. his majority is sufficiently slim. and his majority is populated with, with a number of members who are not widely inclined to support anything that a leader puts out. and one element of the debt limit historically, is it, there are always members, republicans and democrats that are in transit on this issue. and they essentially say, i cannot vote for this, or i will not vote for this. sometimes those are a little different. one is the cannot, is my, my constituency will, will eat me alive, and i will not get re elect. there's anybody remember that president joe biden did not vote for a debt limit increase in 2002, when george w bush was president nor did. and how did they explain that the form of the last democratic president, president obama, also voted against the debt limit under george

w bush. and the rationale was rhetorically, very similar to what intransigence on the other side. so all of it is about, you know, the full faith and credit of the united states, you know, facing potential collapse. they risk that before. so does it undermine their credibility to de bobby, when talking to republicans and saying don't put the u. s. government at risk. yeah, i think you can absolutely call packers and individual members. you see that all throughout, at the end of the day, politicians are politicians and they want to make the point they want to make. i think my frame would be in terms, in terms of the bipartisanship of what you know, queen increases to bit that limit. we had 7 clean ones under, under president bush and those were all large. they were all very bipartisan. it's true. you have plenty of democratic members who did not vote for them and you had some republicans, you didn't, but those are very bipartisan increases. and there were 3 under president trump, and those were also very bipartisan increases. kevin mccarthy voted for all 3 of

them. when we got to the democratic presidents, all of a sudden they were a lot less bipartisan. i think that's, that's kind of the point that i would make it through. you can find individual members, you can call the parker, see, we're not wrong to do it. but, but the, but there's a big difference here that when it comes to be a democratic president, you get to see stuff where they say, i mean, democrat, didn't say for instance, under president trump, we will only consider our opening bid is for you to i don't know, do you medicare for all and raise the minimum weight? you know, they didn't say this is our opening bed. they, you know, they did by person increase in the entry, had individual members who might a push, but i think there's kind of a kind difference going on here. it doesn't take well, you know, when incisive political scientists to look at governance in the united states is being divisive in fraud. and when you, sir, roll that into a scenario where if congress cannot pass an increase in the debt limit, well,

now you have a reason to fundamentally doubt that proposition that the treasury is a riskless security. it forms the basis the bedrock, the benchmark for global financial markets. banks are capitalized in it. they underpin bobby what happens to regular citizens out there? what happens, i mean like what, what, what are that? you know, i hear this is going to be a to nami, of chaos. what does that look? what's, what's happening to regular people? so just to, to, to the extent that the treasuries are the, the bedrock of the financials and every financial traction. transaction that a, a private citizens engaged in becomes costlier. and so that is your mortgage, your auto loan. so everything with an interest rate, everything that it interacts in the financial markets and people will understand just how interrelated all these are because everything in their life will become more expensive. on top of that, you will have disruptions to the federal government. and so that, that can involve, they will have to basically husband the cash that they have, that they should be using the pay other bills and that can have consequences. now

for the broader macro economy that can have consequences for employment. and so all of these are layered on top of an economic outlook where, you know, nobody is out there saying, oh, we're heading for boom times people are talking about the risk of recession. so we're adding this on top of i think existing anxiety about about the economy for every american and in probably a lot of people are soc, is terrible. and i just think go on top of it. so gordon did a great job of weighing out like all the ways in which the financial factor starts to crops re default. and in addition to that, the government is forced to immensely pull back on it spending. right, so you're no longer allowed to run a net deficit. and if deficits i don't actually have up the top. my head, what the projected deficit this year is, but if it were to be a trillion dollars, then that would be a trillion dollars of west spending into the economy. and as i said, the hyper majority of what we do goes directly to individuals. that means there's

70 percent less of that, that's going directly to individuals. and so that means everyone's paycheck. i burns. wallet is small, is lower. you can afford last food to put in the table. you can afford last out here. all the things that we do to make everything be in and that's not happen. your social security numbers are down. there's a book coming out in june that i looked at called the paradox of debt by richard. vague and vague makes the point that as debt has increased in the united states, government debt, household savings has gone up, but he's is what's very, very disconcerting. is the inequality gap that those folks with assets tend to gather much more assets. and as that debt rises, the federal government debt the, the private gains of the most wealthy and society are there. so i just mention that that's i because joe biden has come out and said it part of this is we need to pump up the i r s. and we need to tax the rich more and deal with these social contract stresses. is there any resonance for that within regard of talking about the debt

ceiling politics and it says, is there, is there any room for that to run? yeah, i, that's actually a great point. i looked at this in 29 team and i was working with the senate budget committee and the net assets of the night of the nation are significantly up even netting out the debt that the government holds. right? so the assets netted the government, the government are going up and up and up and up and up. i think they're up 213637 1000000 as a belie we didn't argue that like increasing debt to good thing. well, so whether or not it's a good thing, what's very clear is that the line that you hear that we are leaving the next generation worse and worse off that's, that's just not true. people are getting richer and richer and richer on a real per capita basis. the issue, as you said, is that where that, where the accumulation of wealth is, is really bad. you have some people who are doing extremely well and you have a lot of people who are falling behind. and that's, you know,

that's where we really ought to be focus and it's that would be my, my retort to the idea that we can't possibly forgeries are debt when that because you know, we're over leverage, we're not going. so i, i would not be someone who would argue that we can't afford to raise a debt limit. rather i would, i would argue that we have to raise a debt limit. and when we are going to consider doing so, we should also consider the budgetary context in which we're doing it. now, the proposal that this speaker mccarthy put forward. i don't think anyone's under any illusion that that piece of legislation is going to be signed into law. i don't think that the send it's going to pass it. i don't think that the president of the stage right now is, you know, breaking out his pen decided in law either. and so, to the extent that the negotiation ensues and we increase the debt limit, and there's a negotiated a budgetary component to that. it's going to be fairly small ball. you know,

we're going to run 20 trillion dollars and deficits over the next 10 years. we're going to spend $80000000000.00 and the high, you know, the legislation, 100000000 trillion. use me 1000000000 here a 1000000000 there. but the legislation and kevin mccarthy put forward may reduce spending by 4 and a half trillion over the next 10. let me ask you a question. why do they go after climate change? food stamps and say military spending is great. it's really not just about fiscal conservatism, if you are saying okay, so i'm just nervous in, in that, in that, you know, the targets they're going in this to and the reason will basically they have each republicans and democrats, particularly over the last 6 years have all agreed that the most significant parts of the federal budget, so that in the major entitlement programs and the tax code are off limits. and once

you walled off all but 10 to 20 percent of the federal budget, then no matter what, when you are only negotiating on a small sliver of the federal budget, you're not touching any element of the real budgetary risk that we're facing. so i actually think in this debate that we're seeing here is that there's a lot of risks that we carry, that we already talked about about not increasing the debt limit. and i think the upside budget terribly is fairly small. and so i do think it is a worthwhile to have this conversation recognize where in this current environment is there some compromise on, on the budget, but also recognize that we're still have a lot of work to go. and this probably is not the debate we're going to tackle the budget problem isn't crazy to have this debate at all. i mean, when you kind of look at the fact that they're only going to if, if they succeed in the go with kevin mccarthy or joe biden plan, we're talking about a one and a half $1000000.00 increase to this 31.4. so that would get us up in about

a one and a half trillion more leeway in the government debt that can be carried. what is it by him? is this just just a sure another nightmarish, you know? yeah, why the authorial contest in this right before the election? yeah, i mean that one quick response and i want to get to something else. you actually, he's 1500000 or march 2024, right? right. whichever comes 1st. so that is showing that even if, even if it got him longer than we still want to set it up to have a fight right before. but, you know, getting to your 1st point. sure. you know what about this in the 1st place? what i would say is, i think that, that, that limit should be completely separate from whether we default it's just a separate question from what our fiscal pass should be. i mentioned in the beginning that most countries don't do it the way that we do. and that's because they know that if you want to change your deficits and if you want to change that,

it change your spending and tax laws, right? you don't say while we should think about this or else for default, right? like that's not, that's not an ok position. so congress can and should debate it's fiscal path, but be shouldn't do it with the pretext of if this doesn't work out right, then we might default in our obligations, right? that's not an appropriate way to do it. and i would just say we also do have a debate about fiscal policy every single year. right? speaking mccarthy focused mote. the hyper majority of what he was. blackmail, you know, kind of words, not mine, but it, but it raises yes. you also the deal that kevin mccarthy did to be in government. you actually have statements of some of the g o. p members that supported kevin that were hold out something came on board. they've been out saying we want to wreck the federal government budget process. we want to wreck, we want to see government fail and that, so i just want to have people know that while that may not be the bulk abuse, it's certainly become part of the equation. you disagree? i think i would,

i would just want to at least note that at the end of the day to increase the debt limit, you need to have a bill at the house in the senate and the president has to sign it right now. there simply aren't the votes for a clean debt limit. there aren't devotes for it in the senate in aren't the vote for it in the house right now. i understand why that would be frustrating and inconvenient but individual elected legislators have to be the ones who take this vote and right now a clean debt limit does not have enough votes to pass the house and senate. and so real quick go to your god, answer your prediction. are they going to pass this your view? i think they will increase the debt limit. i think they will increase that. i don't think they're going to pass the speakers legislation. so you're an optimist. that a deal will get done a lot. but bobby, are you an optimist or a pessimist? i'm bad at these predictions. i think i think the risk of default is the highest has been in, in, in, in u. s. history. i agree with i internally,

i was around 5050, which is a coward's a coward's number. right. and economist. yeah. 33. sure. didn't really. yeah. you know, whether you're at 2550. as gordon said, if you take people their face at what they've said, they're savings a place value that there aren't the votes. we might find that when we're really close to, we can have like a target situation where we're right there. and then we find that there are the votes, but i would say the only reason that there might not be the votes is that some people have decided that that is inappropriate. now that biden is president when it was appropriate before again, there was huge bipartisan support because it's spent a big chunk of that day and to go to this, got it. i put out a report a month ago that said the level, it's not about the level of that. it's about the trajectory of that. but it's just that if you, if you hadn't done the bush tax cuts there, bipartisan extensions and the from tax cuts,

then that will be declining forever as a percentage g d p. back to any conversation, i wish we had more time, which i rarely say and had talk about debt and debt limits. bobby cogan, senior director of federal budget policy of the center for american progress and gordon, gray, director of fiscal policy at the american action forum. thank you so much for great conversation. thank you. thank you here. so what's the bottom line here is the paradox growing. the national debt can actually help grow the economy and it can increase the private sector as well. even as the government's debt burden gets heavier. but too much debt can drive up inflation, it can make the dollar lose value, and it can undermine confidence in the future. no one has a magic wand and knows how to balance america's budget no matter what the country's leader say. so yes, america will keep printing money. as for the politicians, though, the debate on the debt ceiling is going to go to the brink. i think we're probably going to be ok. still, there's always a chance that someone may misstep, misjudge, or misfire. and then things can go downhill and really,

really fast. and that's the bottom line. ah no place. and so i gone with say the press retreated of the car about a media hub and vital vantage point during the 1st truly televised war from the roof. we could see the vacuum ocean at the american embassy, where the most iconic images of the conflict and vietnam were transmitted to the world. this was the front row sheet to the final stages of the war, saigon, caravel, war hotels on all jazeera, the latest news, as it breaks the fight. thanks. i think has been confined to the capitol all sides claim control of major facilities, but so far it with all to confirm who has the upper hand with detailed coverage. people have come here to demonstrate against

a growing police violence in the demonstration from around the world. and even when doctors here are able to make an early diagnosis and guarantee the transportation of the 60 still faith, another challenge ah what you all deserve with me. so robin doha, reminder of our top news stories, the reports of heavy fighting around the presidential palace in saddam's capital cartoon. despite it extended ceasefire. the conflict between the arby and power military rapid support forces is now in its 3rd week. hipaa morgan has more from the capital. many people say that they've been trying to make their way out of the capital. but because of lack of financial means that has been very hard to do so many remain trapped inside their homes for the 3rd week. now going on to the 3rd

week with no access to basic needs like hospitals are running water or power. they're saying that they're waiting to see if there would be.