showing the debate, people have already lost that people have lost that culture. people have your say, want to broaden this conversation by bringing more voices into it live on you to people commenting. i want to know that jackie headed over with the powers that be on al jazeera. what impact does the fighting insur down have on libya? there are fears the conflict could disrupt the precarious situation next door. libby is wholly to a political style. my back continues to fit the suit, don hitting the same way. this is inside story with hello and welcome to the program. i'm tom mccray, the conflict in sudan is now in its 3rd wake. the rival generals,

applying the blame game, accusing each other of targeting civilian neighborhoods, hospitals and people trying to leave the country ceasefire after cease fire has collapsed. endless fear powerful regional players may be involved behind the scenes, intentionally prolonging the violence. some have drawn parallels to the situation and neighboring libya. we'll unpack this with our guests in a moment. but 1st this report from the had a bd 2 generals who cons agree having stead resorted to violence. the rivalry between sedans, army chief, abdullah father albert han, and mohammed hummed on the gallow known as ham metty, who leads the rapid support forces is fueling further involvement of regional and international players. the situation is very bad. actually. the artist of forces dementia are you by doing the streets, even some of the houses you run major of the city,

but he report completion is which i can't live. the people exist their, their daily needs because there is no model on this water bill is not a good mission in this, or it's only for the, for, and money. nothing more. one of the most significant, if i leave a half start a libyan warlord who's in control of much of the eastern part of the country, he's believed to have close ties to her. mattie some reports suggest huffed our help train his paramilitary r s f before the fighting broke out mid april. earlier this month, one of half her son visit is hard to him to donate to $1000000.00 to football club . linked to him at half star has denied taking sides, but observed that have pointed to his order to detain a deputy of move. so he led and known enemy of him at the civil war that began in libya and 2011 ultimately led to the toppling and killing of mamma duffy. so

many fighters were portly, involved in the conflict. it divided the country into 2 administrations. the internationally recognized government of national unity in the west and in the east, a parliament aligned with ha star. and that this court has fueled instability in the region. to dawn and libya are positioned on major maritime trade routes for the movement of not only legal, but also illegal goods inland. the town of good for connect libya, chad and sudan by road. recent media report school witnesses, st claims landing at its airport. we're carrying weapons which were then loaded onto trucks travelling towards the dawn. i met you in half star, enjoy support from the same international backers into one shall figures in russia and the e. but the similarities go even further. and it's weird that saddam may be following

libya. footsteps as both generals seem hungry for power. at any cost. he had ala bady for inside story, the of more on this. let's welcome al gifts today in london. ben waffle. cone, middle east correspondent at the wall street journal. in cartoon. how many county follow nonresident fellow at the to the institute for middle east policy and also in london. jason pack a senior analyst at the nato defense college foundation and author of libya and the global enduring disorder. thank you very much for joining me. but if i can begin with you, you broke the story about half dozen involvements and the rapid special forces before and since the war has broken out. can you just give us a little bit more of the detail in your story? and some specific examples of, of, of his involvement so far. yeah. first of all,

you know that they are still record context. they between general dec i dropped. are there any story, you know, i don't know how, you know, shocked are in the past at that time to take over quickly. those come and try and historically, which is again, i see him again in general health the u. a in its war against road, and that was also and i was the us us in the war. yeah. so that's kind of the background. a story background when she's saying why subsequently winter so t r e, how former are a receipt and the nation from, from the south? a to interested us. yes. so what has happened now like in the,

in the days leading up to the war? how has been involved and, and helping to gallo where they broke ammunition from, from the north east, where a main rio operation is a body to the south near the border. and from there, there was any show that the particularly was monthly by land that he was transported into the fall. and we understand, or where he was received decades by a number of foreign powers, were growing that he did the congo and and where very strong words for more and understand from countries like a gte, but also from the us about not letting the complete become original company with the board over our neighbors including general my laptop. so. ready that

we don't receive the pressure and so deep marsher over that you know. okay jason, what's your reaction to huff does involvement? do you think that this is just the beginning? well i want to build on that excellent background that my friend been why has explained i would make yet a further comparison or analysis between libby and sudan by saying sudan is on the same track that libby has been following just 8 years further down the line what do i mean? there was a popular uprising, civil society activists. it was successful. and then a transitional counsel and a transitional government trying to move towards democracy. and then what are, you know, that all fell apart because of the forces of what i term the global enduring disorder. and this is the era in which it's impossible for western nations to do

collective action. the u. s. isn't doing leadership and regional powers like the u . e, as we've heard from been walk and egypt and turkey and cut are all pulling in different directions. so the interesting twist is, as been, was explained that the u. e and egypt were on the same side and supporting half tar and libya, but they're on opposite sides in the sudan conflict. and they're pulling in different directions without the west providing any unifying structures. and of course, sudan is going to be falling apart then when you add in the ability to smuggle gold and to smuggle, refine petrol from libya and just to dan. and you have all the makings of a state breakdown and a state implosion. so if you wait some years, you can imagine that sudan will be like libya without state institutions with many different semi sovereign actors, each with their own little monopolies on violence and smuggling. and i made your

and sit down obviously and, and we're glad that you're safe for the moment and we hope that it continues. i'm in your living through the repercussions are of all of this. was the reaction, been there to the i did it off the is getting involved with the record support forces at this point in time. yeah, i would also start discreetly by say, i don't think that sudan and libya share the same path. so that would bring down the lead, being late that this is denise political economy, may be in political economy and the active context dynamics also based in but also the way. so that's going on. this has been going and now had a chat and due to what was happening and maybe they asked them submit it, but i think it's, it's difficult to pay that they go down the same line as far as the involvement and i'll be, i would have to specifically,

interested in if they have been before and obviously we know that have to what we're going to have just a few days before the award it up to to some for some more listing where he became an already been a bit of football club. i needed to 1000000 by that, but it didn't meet. we believe that of him if you make the video support for suits paramita chance so on. so they have been before, particularly when, when are them really concerns about the involvement of men and to all that kind of that the theory about about have to be also quite involved then spilling will becoming stronger and stronger. but they've been a strong sentiment in country and dorm at that

yet, because so far, although they're the dimension, but everything that i believe the conflict is playing out to now it's quite localized videos is when it's done in a very low and he's kind of add weight, but it's important to keep an eye on the stage and, and bandage and, but they have become as strong worry of nice people as fire them away. i guess i just concerned about trying to stay alive, day to day been what, what is your reaction? i mean, to have does involvement here. i mean, how long term, how do you think if he continues to provide, you know, potentially more weapons fuel, even military personnel. what do you think that is going to do to the conflict? what i would say very propose will estate, an action, you know,

sort of fashion your company in their, in the why may not be sustainable. because you know, it has to function and that's part of the broader network that they've mentioned, for instance, the weight. and to me sound that the overall e, trash, boring powers, you know, let's say gc countries, obviously european nations and the waiting for this company. not to put security potentially. i mean the, you a very strong ambitions for pod or, or sky or food for they come to die and diabetes become an entirely a stable country. not to mention the risk of a rich g cried these, you know, there's too many issues and i haven't even with them and the fact that there is a 99 that was done way to the not to,

to the day or, you know, got your original interest and international interest, the local factions in the neighborhood. he's waiting for that conflict to and okay, jason, i mean, just one last point on, on huff does connection to the gallery. i mean, can you give us a little bit of a sense of their, their history because obviously they have a very strong shit history, but is the trust store or any loyalty between the 2 of them? well, that's a good point. they do have a shared history. ah, obviously, the emerald ease have paid her meditate, general the gallow to fight in libya with half tar. and they're both militia groups who tried to overthrow the official state institutions, but had formerly worked within those institutions. it's important to remember that when her mentee was running the gender weed he was doing so on behalf of the

official state institutions on my brochure, essentially used to miss her outsourced proxy for himself and huffed. her of course, had been a general for qaddafi, so they understand these structures from many different perspectives and they have the same m radi handlers. i don't think that either of them will put personal loyalty over their transactional desire to win and gain things. and if the egyptians threatened half t r, he can switch sides. that's of course true. i just want to push back on the idea that our guest from cartoon has said, which is that the regional dynamic is not paramount in the fighting. if the u. s. and u. k. had wanted to mediate the situation after the 2019 uprising had given massive economic assistance to help the transition to democracy. we wouldn't be in the situation if there was western leadership working with, for example, china to make sure that the russians couldn't play around and participate in gold

smuggling. we wouldn't be in this situation. so we're only in this situation in sudan because the global enduring disorder, the error that we're now living in, promotes conflicts like that civil war and libya like the ongoing civil wars in yemen and syria. and that's why we're here where we are amid do you agree with that point that there's a vacuum been left by the whist? when i think the west has the physical to be to the situation that we're living in now, ever since the ag edition took place, they have continued to legitimize the gender, the, that of the artist. and that he, that of the source is by giving them say to the table and allowing them to be part of the discussion and also pushing civilians to accept the partnership with the dental. and even after the code that both are in committee, launch to get it back in october 2021. though it's been that out of them at the

space and, and, and, and gave them. but just although they never to be worthy of us, that is definitely something that there was contributed to. but what i meant by that is that the, that this, the way these institution, the support forces and this means of course is where to create it. initially they were created to work against each other, although they were created to it side by side, but it essentially they would get to play against each other. but she wants to protect himself from the forces, but also wanted ammunition to fight for him. so it was going to happen in a way to know that this falling out of their marriage of convenience, it was not going to last, but we did not expect it, or it hoping it will be as violent as it has turned out to be. but these institutions where, you know, been to kim each other, you know, a, oh no, you can't see him made. but jason,

throughout that was i given you the thumbs up. i think he is in agreement with most of what you were saying. that's exactly right. and i think that that was a great way of explaining it how me thank you. it's that the forces that brought that marriage of convenience together couldn't sustain it because we live in this disordered world, where many factions are pulling in different directions. and stupidly western foreign policy gave power to the generals without enough threats. these are the sanctions you're going to face. if you, if you defy what we've agreed, this is the punishment you're going to have if you derail a transition to democracy. but the lack of, of leadership in capitals like london at brussels and washington has allowed this splintering, whereby regional powers can pick sides and can disorder things. and i believe firmly that it's not just the russians, but there are many actors who are happy for this conflict. to continue quasi indefinitely, and then we're just, just for,

we were talking about the russians. huff does been backed by russia. i mean, his hosted wagner group as his basis in libya. and as we've spoken about before, the gala has lucrative gold mining partnerships with the russian mercenary group. i mean, is there any indication at all that anyone's been able to work out that huff does involvement? and so don, is backed by russia is supported by russia. at this point, i would say that i didn't need that much from, from the russians. the rest of the network very well established, you mentioned, connected to, to go to exposed to, to russia. strong. the story go, relation with general, since you know each day for people to train the 19 or so you know, he was approached by,

by factor. i mean, the wagner in the region is really right now, i'm going back to the rock shares border with a very strong proposal distance. but he's also very nervous by the connection. i mean, both direction official connection after the treaty had not your nose didn't go well. and actually the connection, though is not gonna make it over is not going to make the professional to toxic because you potentially sanction the section. do you, jason, agree with that point? for sure. yeah. okay, yeah, i mean, i mean, just moving on slightly, i mean, outside of trying to negotiate a long lasting cease fire or any sort of peace deal. i mean, what's the mood inside sudan at the moment in regards to any outside involvement from any of these groups or countries? i mean, the, the thought there that the more involvement from outside the longer that this war

is going to go on. absolutely. i think the general elective right now is, is, you know, in addition to, and being the war now and so on, ending in a time before it allows for more intervention from, from, from the doctors. you know, like i said, i think they, you know, very documented and i'm probably about the dimension in because in, so they need conflict build up, put it and how it's out there now. but so far that they know enough evidence of them actively being on ground or at least it's very limited. and if you don't want to trying to keep it this limit before i go, otherwise they have more involvement, more power that coming to play out. some proxy was it so that he's a groundsmen. so and it's going to be very common for these people. so that maybe,

you know, at determined to end this now before it can into that and also before it, because it's become a secret or so it's, it's a power struggle between these 2 agendas. and this is not necessarily gotten into that or by becoming an active part in that. and that's what so stopping any of the communities and then into that single or unit, whatever ethnic or type kind, both narrative would eventually lead to more engine and active intervening. everyone is trying to embed immediately before it can be something that is spread because they didn't. and it would be very difficult to control that . yes, just and you are expert on libya. what are the rep ramifications for libya if this war does continue to drag on and on and,

and drag in other players from in the region? well, i don't think that the implications for libya that profound libya is already a non state whereby various malicious control, the majority of the territory. the central bank governor is allied with turkey. the head of the national oil corporation is aligned with the u e. it's entirely penetrated and failed state if it has another failed state on its border, it doesn't have much blow back. yes, it's slightly negative. it allows for more smuggling of petrol into sudan and smuggling of mercenaries from sudan back into libya. so it's a minor destabilizing factor. ah, i think that the global enduring disorder, which we have all around us, is so much more of a factor for libya than just, you know, another failed state whether it was molly before or sudan. now, i'm to go back to that earlier point that we heard from in cartoon, which is that,

you know, it's not a civil war yet. i think it's important to point out that there are ethnic and tribal differences between say, the supporters of the army who come from the river in elite and the north. and then the more peripheral ethnic groups who are connected to the r s f and him, etc. and you're going to have not only regional powers, but local powers who to want to win, try to provoke and mobilize their based. so in the absence of global leadership, i don't see how we can't have the class fitzy in dictum, which is that war inherently escalates to the maximum extent possible coming into play. and this moving more towards a civil conflict. just as we've seen in libya, where the 20142015 war for the tripoli airport was not something that polarized the society. but then that 2192020 war was more hitting,

its social fissures and more intense. so i think we're seeing that dimension, play out in sudan, and unless there's a massive international intervention with strong sanctions and penalties, i don't see how we can get this back on track. but we're just, before we finish up in the next few minutes, do you think that this is going to escalate? things are going to get worse before they get better. if you think about the chair gave you feed, the escalation needs a state of the strength that each party needs to show the 40 were in our ammunition or strength or you know. ready any young to the cable 1st you want to show how far you can go almost there in a fight to death until you until you eat. so seed, and then you go to the table and you go some, but you're not there right now. it, you know, i mean ition and, you know force them to grow on. ready able to fight before they get to that point where they feel they need to made. do you think that that is going to be the way

that this plays out? the 2 sides just going to fight to the dislike been while was saying, or do you think that there has to be internationally intervention to try and bring this to a close? i think the way this is going to play out both, both. i'm not ready to you know, end despite so they should be be, be allowed to continue the war. there will continue to be in the general eyes and to be asked to be. busy bold within, been a bit confused, but beyond as when my nation and i live and that would be catastrophic. however, i think the international committee is not acting as quick as possible, but i little bit more now using that. they have over to be regional eyes to end this now before escalates into something terrible

on the, in the local a front. and so, and they have been out of the initiative. i unified 2000000000 front. i do want to be in front has been established a couple of days ago, begin to give it all parties. it is central to the site and so on to say to a message. the message is basically no toward no to you know, all the time. but now that have a period now with dragging the whole whole country into a full blown war and to make sure that you know this water when it end, it does not also compromise. we didn't quite a zation, i didn't, but that we, you know, we want to restore the democratic transition once before. and so they did maybe externally to hold. this was that the general i very determined

about taking on i have been ok. thank you so much. we really do have that this conflict in some way, shape or form can come to an end as, as quickly as possible. been one of falcon, a. thank you, a hamid calif. allah and jason peck. thank you very much for joining us on the inside story today. well, and thank you a to for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, al jazeera dot com, and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that is facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter. i'll handle as as a j inside story for me. toma cry and whole team here, python. ah ah,

al jazeera sets the stage 311 here, 5, i don't know. i either been deployed to thief, just one enemy global experts in discussing the idea of it being duke and she's been established in democracy. it was bound to fan explore and abundance of wild class programming of it guided belief with impacts designed to inform, motivate, and inspired on now to sierra breaking down the headlines to exposing the powers attempting to silence reporting. what did you do? what to investigate? why didn't you ask the question? there are many joins that said, fencer they don't have, but you didn't get back on public went stories. the listening post doesn't cover

the news. it covers the way the news is covered to suppress moderate. and in some cases, amplify the content you feed on your timeline. the listening post on al jazeera, a meeting of mine, when i was studying the cannon and the curriculum that we were taught was handed down from elsewhere. it was an inherited curriculum. that is the image of architecture in the west architect simeha valley and alejandro ravenna part one. there was, you mean or something that social housing cannot provide, which is personal expression fry. studio b unscripted on al jazeera voters in paraguay are electing a new president on april, the 30th foreign policy matters in the fight against corruption have dominated campaign in the governing party had been in power for more than 60 years. could this be the moment the opposition had been waiting for followed the paraguay

elections this month on al jazeera. ah, ah, you're watching the news, our life from a headquarters, and so i'm getting obligated coming up in the next 60 minutes. an exodus from sudan as hopes fade of a diplomatic solution to weeks of fighting between 2 generals. the plight of sudanese who managed to escape to charge but aid agencies bears either running out of food.