and we've seen unusual rain with widespread showers. some of those intensifying into thunderstorms in the south was in pretty intense storms to come for sure. lanka, over the next few days at u. m. ah, lebanese tells me businessman, with the large gold mining operation, mexico for agreed to succeed. you recall and education economist who became top adviser to leaders. president clinton's celebrated my work in the white house. he paid me much more than i actually deserve. just you the world needs to make his son success. after leaving the middle east, edits abroad the money on al jazeera. what impact does the fighting in sudan have on libya, their affairs, the conflict could disrupt the precarious situation next door. libby is walled into a political style. my dad continues to fist the suit,

don hitting the same way. this is inside story. ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm tom mccray, the conflict in sudan is now in its 3rd wake. the rival generals, applying the blame game, accusing each other of targeting civilian neighborhoods, hospitals and people trying to leave the country ceasefire after cease fire has collapsed. endless fear powerful regional players may be involved behind the scenes, intentionally prolonging the violence. some have drawn parallels to the situation and neighboring libya. we'll unpack this without guests in a moment. but 1st this report from the head al r. beatty. 2 generals who can't agree having stead resorted to violence.

the rivalry between sedans, army chief after fetter, han and mohammed hummed under gallow, known as ham metty, who leads the rapid support forces is fueling further involvement of regional and international players. the situation is really bad. actually. the artists of forces, the minissha arctic you're riding the the, the street even some of the houses, even major. busy city, but even important, which can't live, the people exist their, their daily needs because there is no more on this water is no great mission in this work. it's only for the for and money. nothing more. one of the most significant, if you, for half a libyan warlord who's in control of much of the eastern part of the country, he's believe to have close ties to hammer. t some reports suggest huffed our help train his paramilitary r. s f before the fighting broke out mid april. earlier this month,

one of half the son visited cartoon to donate $2000000.00 to football club, linked to him at half star has denied taking sides. but observed that have pointed to his order to detain a deputy move. so he led and known enemy of him at the civil war that began in libya and 2011 ultimately led to the toppling and killing of mamma. daffy sudanese fighters were portly, involved in the conflict. it divided the country into 2 administrations. the internationally recognized government of national unity in the west. and in the east, a parliament aligned with half star. and that this court has fueled instability in the region, sudan and libya are positioned on major maritime trade routes for the movement of not only legal, but also illegal goods in land. the town of good for our connect libya,

chad and sudan by road. recent media reports, quote, witnesses, same cleans landing at its airport, where carrying weapons which were then load it unto trucks, travelling towards sudan, amity and half der enjoy support from the same international bacchus, influential figures in russia and the u. e. but the similarities go even further and it's feared that said on may be following libya's footsteps as both general seem hungry for power at any cost. me had ella beady for in sad story. ah, of a more on this, let's welcome our guests to day in london been while falcon middle east corresponded at the wall street journal in khartoum. hamid's caliph, allah non resident fellow at the to the institute for middle east policy. and also in london, jason pack a senior analyst at the night,

her defense college foundation and author of libya and the global enduring disorder . thank you very much for joining me. but what if i can begin with you? you broke the story about huff does involvement in the record special forces before, in essence, the war has broken out. can you just give us a little bit more of the detail in your story and ends some specific examples of, of, of his involvement so far? yeah, 1st of all, you know, the story called context being between general and dropped artist of the story. you know, i don't know how, you know, shocked in the past at that time to take over quickly. those come and try and historically, which is the greatest again general go to the u. e in its war against rhodes. and that was also with the us us in the war.

yeah. so that's kind of the background, a story background, which is why subsequently winter or civil war on the former are a receipt and the nation from, from the south a to a to sit up. yes. so what, what does happen now, like in the, in the days leading up to the war, how has been involved and, and helping to gallo well, he broke ammunition from, from the north east where a port of main rio operation is bought into the south, near the check in order and from there, there was any show that the money was monthly by land, the day was transported into full and we understand or where it was

received by a number of whoring powers. were growing, trying to keep the ongoing and wherever we spoke words from when i understand from countries like a gte, but also from the us about not letting the complete become original company the board over our neighbors, including general microsoft. ready so we don't receive the pressure and so deed marsher, dora you know, that's ok jason, what's your reaction to does involvement? do you think that this is just the beginning? well i want to build on that excellent background that my friend been why has explained i would make yet a further comparison or analysis between libby and sudan by saying sudan is on the

same track that libby has been following just 8 years further down the line what do i mean? there was a popular uprising, civil society activists. it was successful. and then a transitional counsel and a transitional government trying to move towards democracy. and then what are, you know, that all fell apart because of the forces of what i term the global enduring disorder. and this is the era in which it's impossible for western nations to do collective action. the u. s. isn't doing leadership and regional powers like the u . e, as we've heard from been walk and egypt and turkey and cut are all pulling in different directions. so the interesting twist is, as been, was explained that the u. e and egypt were on the same side and supporting half tar and libya, but they're on opposite sides in the sudan conflict. and they're pulling in different directions without the west providing any unifying structures. and of

course, sudan is going to be falling apart then when you add in the ability to smuggle gold and to smuggle, refine petrol from libya and just to dan. and you have all the makings of a state break down and a state implosion. so if you wait some years, you can imagine that sudan will be like libya without state institutions with many different semi sovereign actors, each with their own little monopolies on violence and smuggling. and i made your and sit down obviously and, and we're glad that you're safe for the moment and we hope that it continues. i'm in your living through the repercussions of, of all of this, was the reaction been there to the idea that half the is getting involved with the rapid support forces at this point in time? yeah, i would also start discreetly by say, i don't think that that sedan and libya share the same pass. so that has been down the lead being late that this is denise political economies vegas to be in

political economy and the context dynamics based and but also the way. so that's going on. this has been going and now had a chat and due to what was happening and maybe they asked them submit it. but i think it's, it's difficult to say that they go down the same line as far as the involvement and i'll be, i have to specifically interested in what they have been before. and obviously we know about what we're going to have just a few days before the award it up to to some for some more listing where he became an already been that was a bit of a football club. i needed to 1000000, but i did like that, but he didn't meet with any that affect him at the make the video support for his

paramita chance so on. so they have been before, typically when, when are them dad, but only concerns about the involvement of men and to all of us, the kind of the theory about about have to be also quite involved then spilling both, becoming stronger and stronger. but there's been a strong sentiment in country and cartoon at that yet because so far, although there are these dimensions. but everything that i can pick out, playing out to now is quite localized videos is when it's done in a very low and he's kind of wait, but it's important to keep an eye on the stage and bandage and, but they have become as strong worry of nice people as fire them away. i guess i just concerned about trying to stay alive, day to day. been what,

what is your reaction? i mean, to have does involvement here. i mean, how long term, how do you think if he continues to provide, you know, potentially more weapons fuel, even military personnel. what do you think that is going to do to the conflict? what i would say very propose will estate, an action, you know, sort of fashion, your integrity in there in the why may not be sustainable. because, you know, it has to function the other way function and that part of the broader network. and as i mentioned, for instance the. ready way to me sound that the overall e trash or a powers, you know, let's say gc countries, obviously european nations and the waiting for this company. i'm not sure put security potentially. i mean the, you

a very strong ambitions for paul or sky approved for free from today, and that's what she did dye, lucy become the country. not to mention the risk of a rich g cried lease. you know, there's too many issues and i haven't started even with them. and the fact that there is that last part of the night denied that was done way to the not to, to the day or, you know, got your original, its interest and international interest. the only local faction in the neighborhood is waiting for that conflict. when okay, jason, i mean, just one last point on, on huff does connection to decala. i mean, can you give us a little bit of a sense of their, their history? because obviously they have a very strong shit history, but is the trust store or any loyalty between the 2 of them. but that's

a good point. they do have a shared history. ah, obviously, the emerald ease have paid her med take general de gallo to fight in libya with half tar and they're both militia groups who tried to overthrow the official state institutions but had formerly worked within those institutions. it's important to remember that when her ment he was running the gender weed he was doing so on behalf of the official state institutions or my brochure essentially used to miss her outsourced proxy for himself and huffed. her of course, had been a general for qaddafi. so they understand the structures from many different perspectives and they have the same m radi handlers. i don't think that either of them will put personal loyalty over their transactional desire to win and gain things. and if the egyptians threaten after he can switch sides, that's of course true. i just want to push back on the idea that our guest from

khartoum has said, which is that the regional dynamic is not paramount and the fighting. if the u. s. and u. k. had wanted to mediate the situation after the 2019 uprising had given massive economic assistance to help the transition to democracy. we wouldn't be in the situation if there was western leadership working with, for example, china to make sure that the russians couldn't play around and participate in gold smuggling. we wouldn't be in this situation. so we're only in this situation in sudan because the global enduring disorder, the error that we're now living in, promotes conflicts like that civil war and libya like the ongoing civil wars in yemen and syria. and that's why we're here where we are. her mid, do you agree with that point that there's a vacuum being left by the whist? when i think go, it has the physical to be in the situation that we're living in now. ever since the ad edition took place, they have continued to lead you to my,

the agenda. the that of the secondary that of the source is by giving them say to the table and allowing them to be part of the discussion and also pushing civilians thought said the partnership with the dental and even after the code that both are in general committee to give it back in october 2021, though it's been that out of them at the space and, and, and gave them. but just although they never to be worthy of us, that is definitely something that there was contributed to. but what i meant by that is that the, this, the way these institution, the support forces and this means of course is where created initially they were created to work against each other, although they were created to it side by side. but it essentially they would get to play against each other, but she wants to protect himself from the forces,

but also wanted ammunition to fight for him. so it was going to happen in aware of that, this falling out of the marriage of convenience. it was not going to last, but we did not expect it, or it hoping it would be as violent as it has turned out to be. but these institutions where, you know, been to kim each other, you know, a, oh no, you can't see him made. but jason, throughout that was giving you the thumbs up. i think he is in agreement with most of what you were saying. that's exactly right. and i think that that was a great way of explaining it how me thank you. it's that the forces that brought that marriage of convenience together couldn't sustain it because we live in this disordered world, where many factions are pulling in different directions. and stupidly western foreign policy gave power to the generals without enough threats. these are the sanctions you're going to face. if you, if you defy what we've agreed,

this is the punishment. you're going to have that you derail a transition to democracy. but the lack of, of leadership in capitals like london at brussels and washington has allowed this splintering, whereby regional powers can pick sides and can disorder things. and i believe firmly that it's not just the russians, but there are many actors who are happy for this conflict. to continue quasi indefinitely, and then we're just, just for, we were talking about the russians. huff does been backed by russia. i mean, his hosted wagner group as his basis in libya. and as we've spoken about before, the gala has lucrative gold mining a partnerships with the russian mercenary group. i mean, is there any indication at all that anyone's been able to, to work out that huff does involvement? and so don, is backed by russia is supported by russia. at this point, i would say that i didn't need that much from the russians. the rest of the network to very well established, you mentioned, connected to, to go to exposed to,

to russia. strongest story go, relation with general from since, you know, he stays in publicly that, you know, he's for people are trained by the 19 or so you know, he was approached by, by factor. i mean the banner in the region is we right now going back to the rock shares border with very strong proposal distance, but he's also very nervous about the connection. i mean, both direction official connection between the not your know didn't go well actually. and the connection though is not going to make it over is not going to make sure that because you potentially sanction the financial section. do you

agree with that point? for sure. yeah. okay. i mean, i mean, just moving on slightly. i mean, outside of trying to negotiate a long lasting ceasefire or any sort of peace deal. i mean, what's the mood inside sudan at the moment in regards to any outside involvement from any of these groups or countries? i mean, the, the thought there that the more involvement from outside the longer that this war is going to go on. absolutely. i think the general elective now is, is 5 to in addition to and being door now and so on. is ending in a what time before it allows for more intervention from, from, from the doctors. you know, and like i said earlier, i think they, you know, very documented. and i'm probably about the digital intervention in because they need conflict build up, put it and how it's out there now. but so far that they know enough evidence of

them actively being on gown or at least it's very limited. and if you're trying to keep this limit before i go, otherwise they might involvement more power that coming to play out some proxy was it so that he's a groundsmen. so and it's going to be very common for these people. so they're very, you know, at determined to end this now before they can into that and also before it becomes activity or so it's, it's a power struggle between these 2 generals. and this society is not necessarily gotten into that by becoming an active part of it. and that's what so stopping any of the communities that inter, that's a good or whatever ethnic or type kind,

both narrative would eventually lead to more engine an actors intervening. everyone is trying to embed immediately before it can be something that is spread because they didn't and would be very difficult to control them. yes, just in your own expert on libya, what are the rep ramifications for libya if this war does continue to drag on and on and, and drag in other players from in the region? well, i don't think that the implications for libya that profound libya is already a non state whereby various malicious control, the majority of the territory. the central bank governor is allied with turkey. the head of the national oil corporation is aligned with the u e. it's entirely penetrated and failed state if it has another failed state on its border, it doesn't have much blow back. yes, it's slightly negative. it allows for more smuggling of petrol into sudan and

smuggling of mercenaries from sudan back into libya. so it's a minor destabilizing factor. ah, i think that the global enduring disorder, which we have all around us, is so much more of a factor for libya than just, you know, another failed state whether it was molly before or sudan. now, i'm to go back to that earlier point that we heard from in cartoon, which is that, you know, it's not a civil war yet. i think it's important to point out that there are ethnic and tribal differences between say, the supporters of the army who come from the river in elite and the north. and then the more peripheral ethnic groups who are connected to the r s f n m n. t, and you're going to have not only regional powers, but local powers who to want to win, try to provoke and mobilize their based. so in the absence of global leadership, i don't see how we can't have the class vit. see in dictum,

which is that war inherently escalates to the maximum extent possible coming into play. and this moving more towards a civil conflict, just as we've seen in libya, where the 20142015 war for the tripoli airport was not something that polarized the society. but then that 2192020 war was more hitting, its social fissures and more intense. so i think we're seeing that dimension. play out in sudan. and unless there's a massive international intervention with strong sanctions and penalties, i don't see how we can get this back on track. but we're just before we finish up in the next few minutes, do you think that this is going to escalate? things are going to get worse before they give better. giving about the chess game you feed, the escalation needs a state of the or the strength that each party needs to show the 40 we're in our ammunition or strengths or, you know. ready and gone to the table for you want to show how far you can go

almost in there in a fight to death until you until you read it. so see, and then you go to the table and you go some agreement, but i think you're not there right now. it, you know, i mean, you shouldn't, and you know, force him to grow on able to fight before they get to that point where they feel they need to made. do you think that that is going to be the way that this plays out? the 2 sides are just going to fight to the dislike been while we're saying? or do you think that there has to be international intervention to try and bring this to a close? i think the way it's going to play out both, both i'm not ready to you know, end expired. so they should be be allowed to continue the war. there will continue to bring these in our lives and to get more active be involved. 6 within been

a big can do, but beyond as when more times nation and i live, i'm that would be catastrophic. i would, i think the international committee is not acting as, as quick as possible. been a little bit more now using really they have over local, regional eyes to end this now before to escalate into something terrible on the, in the local a front and so on. that have been out of the initiatives. i unify 2000000000 front people to be in front has been established a couple of days ago. begin to get that all that has to do central spike and so on to say to a message. the message is basically no 2 or no 2. you know all the time, but now that have appeared and now i would if dragging the whole whole country into

a full blown picket war and to make sure that you know this war when it and it does not also compromise. we didn't create a vision. i didn't, but that we, you know, we want to restore the democratic transition once before. and so they did. and then the extent mainly to hold this word that didn't very determined about taking on then. ok. thank you so much. we really do have that this conflict in some way, shape or form can come to an end as, as quickly as possible. been while a falcon, a thank you. a hamid calif, i la and jason peg. thank you very much for joining us on the inside story today. well, and thank you a to for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com, and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter. i'll handle as,

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as he is between the army and the power military force have continued with shelling and gunfire. and cartoon on sunday morning, at least 528 people have now been killed and tens of thousands to.