nairobi and westwards, that's where all the rain is falling in tropical africa and for southern africa. fairly quiet, but a breeze off the mozambique channel, like we give us a few showers for central and northern areas of mozambique on tuesday, sir. ah, a fishing town in synagogue losing it. the sun is to add dreams of a better life. emigration you so much because cynical doesn't offer to produce al jazeera well tells this story of a community by a wave of immigration and meet the women left behind. i left my husband. i also love synagogue. we don't office on al jazeera. ah, they share a buddha, no river, but a c dot is enrolled in a bloody wall. if yoke is concerned about the security situation,

what all the risks of his fellow and ethiopia play the role of a mediator as it's done in recent years. this is insightful. ah hello, welcome to the program on him, ron kon, for decades sudan in ethiopia, enjoyed strong economic and political ties. but recent developments of strained relations between the neighbors. a body dispute, as sparked by land, claimed by both sides, threatened to potential conflict law, share any of your peers, 1000000000 dollar hydroelectric dam on the blue nile has been a source of tension for years. and now with widespread conflict across to dawn and refugees are crossing into the border with the if yo pier some a questioning if new alliances will be formed. we'll look into that with august shortly. but 1st, this report from capture lopez, audio,

the unrest and sudan could have wider political implications in ethiopia, as fighting escalades of regional ties could shift when it b o. p, as prime minister abbey act met, met sedans, general at that battle. brohannon january problems were brewing and cartoon especially ahead of plans to transition to a civilian government. abby archman, who had previously mediated political deadlock in sudan, said he would not intervene. my message for all of you is to prioritize so done to prioritize the people off. so done and to draw your own solution for your problem. as um, you know, we'll have to come as a time we'll stop. moreland crisis requires tolerance and compromises. ah, since then,

the unrest has unravel between the army and paramilitary rapid support forces. some analysts believe this conflict could give an advantage to ethiopia on several issues among them as the on for chicago border region, a contested area claimed by both nations. then there's ethiopia renaissance sam on the blue nile river. the multi $1000000000.00 project has led to a dispute with downstream countries. cartoon worries, the dam will reduce the amount of water it receives from the nile river. the controversy has led to alliances. sudan has partner with egypt to push for a binding agreement with the veal via, now after weeks of violence, many question of new ties will develop to garner political leverage. both sudan, any the opiate have seen conflict in recent years. sudan has hosted about 50000 refugees who fled the fighting in northern ethiopia between government forces and t

gray rebels that ended last year. but now it's sudan. that's again seeing waves of people leave as a power struggle further threatens and security and political future. katya lopez of again for insight story. ah, let's bring in our guest. hey, in doha, i shall bussey research at the arab center for research and policy studies are she's also the former spokesperson for the african union in virginia. it's ana dink, her assistant professor at the james madison university. he focuses on the political history of ethiopia and africa. a warm welcome to each of you. i'd like to begin in doha. first with i shall bossy ayesha. this is going to put a p o p in a very difficult position. it wasn't that long ago in march in doha, that the war, some optimism that there was going to be movement on the issues between the 2

countries, between ethiopia answered on, particularly when it came to the board. it disputes, but now that's got out the window. so where does ethiopia land on this? does it have a favorite person that it fail? let it once in this war, is it remaining neutral? what's going on? well, it to, to answer the question, we have to put the, the situation in a context in, in the international context, but also in the regional context. starting with the international context of the war. the ongoing war between the, the, the sudan, i'm forces and the rapid support forces. i has, has been basically managed by the us the, the crisis is being, are hardly managed by the washington, which is trying to a pull the, the parties to the conflict to back to the negotiation table so far. there are some

good size because the washington insist that is going to have to compete with china and, and russia. and that's to don is as you're strategic appointed at a, cannot for to lose. and it has many other interesting economic, but also linked to the war and ukraine and the of the, the wagner factor in sudan. so for all these reasons, washington is committed to find in a way of going back not only to, to the english in table, but going back to the political framework agreement that has been adopted by mustard parties. so this puts it in a situation where if your p r, which is a pro u. s. government has to take into consideration this, this leadership. the 2nd factor is the regional context. and the reason contacts,

let's say it's favourable to settling the, not only the and their distraction in sudan, but also helping the relationship between if you're answer dan, or to, to, to read, to remain on track on a peaceful track. i, you, you have, of course, you have noticed that the, the region context has been marked by a tendency to go to negotiate the, the, the, the, the problems and settle the dispute. whether it's in libya or in chant, or even in, in the central african republic. this station on that border has come down and washington and he's all eyes and you know, they're committed to keep that, that, that, that, that can, that, that political settlement settlement ongoing the, and on the other side, you have also the situation with, with other countries, especially with egypt and the an and e. any 2 of yeah,

here we have an issue. we have alliance and borders that haven't been marketed. but we, it's your peer, i think, did a situation between if your student has advanced as advanced a quite well. and they have reached a settlement, and that has been confirmed by the visit of abbey at mad too. took her to them on january of this year. let's begin. itala then go ahead. abby already has actually, as i guess, just said, been in courtroom. things were going very well, and then we're in the situation that we're in right now. where does ethiopia majority of the same question? i asked, i sure where does ethiopia land on this? does it have a dog in the fight? in the position where you guys located regarding the, the on the claim conflict and saddam depends on its domestic issues and some regional issues. one important issue that brings and so don and

he'll get to gays or is this a learned very 1st time to capture land disputed for decades between the 2 countries on for chicago? which during that took that i wore it, you'll get prime minister invited a hand to dease, alabama. as the details of the discussion was not clear from what appeared certain, but later in relation to the public and use that appeared for weeks after our bronze visit to i. d. 's, i'd brohannon applied to those news in public that i am at the prime minister of yoga, asked him to take over alpha that might have happened because by then the prime minister wanted to circle to dry on old sites, including on the side of i was a side of saddam, but none was z. a war integrate?

coming to the conclusion. people may think the war and conflict in it. yoga is over . and the problem is not only in sudan, but that is not the chase. as it is a changing dynamic was in it, which makes it the relation between the 2 countries complex in relation to this particular issue or of alpha shad recently i d. 's about moved to integrate regional forces and to the national army, which did not go well in that note, is that an armada region, a good half of the soldiers in our region integrated into the national army. but then large number of soldiers are reportedly turning it and not operating in the border between it your guy. and so don in and in many parts of the i'm hot our region just few days ago, a senior political leader in samar region. i was going down,

i'm buys is about so everything is not under control of ideas about right now because that these are easy enough in a fight was region and forces regarding this at that a tauriel issue. but i don't believe i d 's about once a fight with sudan on this issue or 0 it one the or possibly retake or the i'm for shag, am i gonna culture land, but i sure the accelerates the war. if they take over l for soccer, they seize this opportunity that now sued on the is in chaos. and if you hope your moves into, into that area, a kiss is good bye to any. if you p and mediation, and it will prompt a prolonging of this war, is there a danger of that actually happening? do you think? well unfortunately, there's always a potential for of, for some, some incidence to, to, to go over control out of control. it is,

is it possible to see that one cannot rule out? but what comes here is that the, the central government to the abbey a med seems committed to helping sudan move forward from this, this war. it has us actually a vested interest in, in help in sudan to, to sort out the conflict. instead of adding to, to, to distraction another conflict. because as you, as you said, and, and as you were said, pointed out the agreements that there has been reached between the, the, the government, the if you're in government and the t great liberation front seems it seems going quite well. so abby has every interest in keeping that, that peaceful environment going on and, and going back to normal. he's trying his best to control at these factions,

on the border and other factions. and that's what counts right now. what else is the, the position of abby ac? mad at me, i had to has made clear signals. and he made clear statements to sudan that he is not only willing to to, to or to help. but if he is pushing for an african solution to african problems, here is offered his mediation and that is a sign that he is so far he's in control of this sad situation can deteriorate if some groups decide to try to sabotage the did the situation a ton of we're talking about mediation now, right? we're talking about the fact that ethiopia could be a key player, perhaps much more than watching to pass much more than the you are, you watch more. any of the other partners? it shares a culture, it shares a border, it shares the than our river. so it could be and it has been in the past,

but it also feels like that there's, if you, if it doesn't really have any leverage right now. and when you're negotiating with a 2 parties, that's the key thing that you need. does it have any leverage and it, your guy may have some leverage in this regard. but at the same time, it's not a good to forget every tree. another important player and answer each. i'll come back to that. but again i returned to and regional issues are confronted. it's your b, i'm saddam over the past 2 years. the during the dry war is a hope of a dis, aba, particularly the government of r b. i am a during the dry war. was act by ban handing over on fashion that too, as to don, it would be in control of every team in relation to, to drive, particularly to meet at to gray and circle and to see on,

on the western as site that would even make a few just not to across the border into the saddam. that did not happen as we know all at thousands of refugees and made it to ask for don. and are these are complained multiple times or so? i'm not formally through multiple medias that sudan might have been, had been that cheap yet left during during the war. and now there is the issue of at ease at atria, also as, as the president of atria. also, at some point, showed interest to mediate before the outbreak of the war between political forces, including the differences between the civilian political actors and the army, as well as ourselves. it seems that the cartoon declined the invitation. they interest from assa mara and after the,

i showed this interest and go to not accepted on this. he invited the out of the staff commander to asthma, that details of what they discussed and what they talked about. the issues in sudan, it's not t, it's clear, but it seems like it seems that as morocco is behind, behind a dat gallows and position. i am raising this issue for, for a reason. a, because a was them to dry. in addition to unfair shadow was sent to dr. has a border with sedan again, because so don has a very long border, was ethiopia. so was them the sedan i was them as a to dr. is a steel at partly under the control of each. i'm on our forces are also a protein in the was then to great at region amana is and they at he try is not out

of it yoga yet. so are you try to has and leverage now in relation to the expediency between a dis arbor and the cartoon. and the leverage of i d. 's alba is not very much a strong. the only leverage it has isn't. it has ended as a war and a nose, and it is up and more stable positions are it was 20 years ago. and in this regard, or it may have some ability to bring together as the 2 forces, not unknown, but was he and support of international forces like united states. i remember that that one in the and negotiation between is that the gray liberation front in northern it yoga. and at least about the united states government was a key player. so it's all i tell her, you make a very important point. very, very important point. i want to bringing in a i show here,

when it comes to leverage, ethiopia doesn't have a huge amount says it's on it. that's giving other countries the ability to come in and to use their influence. what does ethiopia need to become? the key player, once again, it has been in the past will it's what does it need to do? well, let me go back to our to atria, because it's connected. ah, 1st of all, at the, the ticket, the mediation, the issue of mediation has been decided. i think it's, it's been determined that the, or the mediation is going to take the form of eguard. it's, it's ego. that is, is going to facilitate to the, or the mediation. and it's, and, or, of course, the framework and the leadership of the us and seo to ravia. so if you take this is, this has been confirmed for official sources in sudan from both the upper hand and committee sites. and data that leaves us with

a y atria and ethiopia and does seem to have the, the leverage, none of them actually atria ah, has showed a some inclination to m e t to rapid support forces as your gas has point out. and also area has showed some english, an inclination towards russia. ah, let's not forget that. and there has been our approach small between must call and an assa mara. and there has been some talk about asthma, might be offering russia a possibility of that for, for establishing a naval base in on, on the right. see, which is a red line for, for washington. so this is a motion just going to disturb you there. sorry about that, our 3rd guest that we wanted to bring you. busy earlier has actually we've actually managed to get hold of her. she's in pause. who don adalia. abdomen is a political commentator. she's in the middle of trying to evacuate her family from

a sudan dahlia just before we get into tonight's her topic. good speed to you and i hope you can get your family out. but just describe the situation. just describe the situation that you're seeing in front of me right now. well, i'm trying to utilize any o roots. i can take whether it's one of the documentation. a or the, the saudi operated varies but it's moving a little bit difficult because. 1 the saudi fairies, we need a visa, but to go through the whole process to get to get the visa to apply. it's moving could be quite problematic simply because of the large number of people trying to apply as well, and a vacuum waste. and so i think just a matter of pop, lucky we'll get to get on one of the flight or not right now, i'm at the airport trying to see if i can get my immediate family on one of those flight. so we'll do the a. thank you for joining us from such

a troublesome situation as what we should look with it now. we are talking about if you were talking about it's potential leverage both, i guess in and in virginia have suggested that there is a huge amount of leverage that has over the situation and through don right now, would you agree with that? i think everything all invested in what's happening so that has, has leverage over that to the both the r s f and the army. but the, the issue is the question is, is in the best interest of the people of this is nice people and at the same time, we do need this leverage. we do need that, you know, the added pressure, the arm to things i will come from the, the, there's and there's also the other issues, like, let's say the state of, if you will be a feel, be a place apart. then you will have people who say no, this is no, this goes against the best interest of egypt and the army,

because each egyptian, they g, egypt, and the army. you know, they, they see i to i. and then you could get the options involved them people would say no, the are a cell phone that's except it. so it's a very complicated market. it's not, it's all black and white, but same time for us to move forward. so i still have to bring an end to the current conflict for all parties, why some are invested in this country need to really apply pressure, proper pressure on both are in the army. but to tell you, do you think that if you, if his role in particular is useful right now it has been in the past. it was only just in march actually, where there was movement in doha, from both sides of the sued on. and if you're about the board to dispute that, that's will gone out the window now. so where do you think if you appease usefulness comes in, is it still that kind of player or as our other guests have suggested, this is now much more about all of the regional players and there isn't one real

power that can bring this complex one in i mean, if he'll be on savannah the very much, he's a twine, i mean, in terms of our, our history and our relations. and i think in the, in the best interest of all countries in the surrounding area, those, especially the ones that borders to don. it isn't everyone's best interest that the conflict is brought to and then we'll just, i guess when it comes to politics, there's no clear cuts. i mean, i can't tell you, this is the right way or doubt. this is the wrong method. but at this moment in time, i guess i'll just keep repeating that we just need to bring more pressure. you know, we need to push more, especially the international financial arena. the players, they just have to really pressure both sides where they, without these are they feel p n junctions or that americans are the un, whatever entities out there if i can have an influence on it and both, she may be unbar hon. i will be welcomed by need of all people because con, continue like this, that the devastation,

the humanitarian aspect of the crisis will be 10 fold. and then it will be they'll be a spill over. and no one wants that. let me bring in. i shall buster who's joining us. busy from a doha, she, you can hear it in dollars voice, you can, hey, the panic distress. she's trying to get her family out of it now to see don, she's trying her hardest to be able to do that. often times we forget about the human side of this when we're talking about potential negotiations and potential leverage. but hey, you have somebody on somebody who's a crucial political commentator within the country telling us this needs to come to an end now. but these, these talks are not happening right now. are they? that's the problem. well, i mean, the fir, the, the fast and the fact that both parties have agreed to go to a must, probably to gender or to, to discuss, to go back to negotiation and, and discuss the, the, the issue. it's a good sign and the other,

the other issue is, is ethiopian leverage, as, as we discussed as it at your be a, has 2 points that go against it. first of all, i think it lacks, could it courage ability or when he comes about the african solutions to african problems because the solution it and it, it chose to, to settle the, are the, the, the, the conflict with their t gray was a military. so what kind of masters are abby would would, would be let in a, in a sense of the word when of when he is talking about a peaceful settlement when himself chose to our, to our, to fight the the be the opponents. the 7 fact oh sure. i sorry we are running out of town. i do want to come to our other guests as well. very quickly at honor. the talks are going to happen both sides of actually agree to that. the location, the former, the timings all over is in and needs to be negotiated. are you hopeful that these talks will bring converts when quickly?

i hope so, but hope and, and should be related to what is going on on the ground. and let me bring in one international issue that all of china and russia, especially when such conflict as a broker is brought to the table in the united nations doing that to dry war. russia and china were consistently standing behind at this part of us position. and pushing back that was the 1st is to end the conflict energy or the end product of that kind of dynamic was african union was empowered because china repeatedly proposed that this is if you're getting an issue and no one and need a all running out of time we are running out of time and i do want to come back to the dollar dollar. you've heard what all guests have said that there are several

aspects of this conflict with all those players with all these people. do you think any kind of negotiation, any piece talks are going to help you and bring the situation to an em? i think this conflict can be brought to an in concrete. i'm assuming that's the question. yeah. but it depends on though, you know, the price of the outside party is in their best interest. it's about to and then it comes down to that. and if it is, how do they pay on both sides? both sides. because either of the guys want to lose or when they come out but you know, not the victor. so how do people and how do you make sure that it's for the best for the country and for people? and that's the conundrum. and i think it's a very hard equation, it's a very hard factor, but no one can really work out. 5 because they played them off of each other for so long. it's not reach the point where, who's gonna come up with victoria?

julia, i want to thank you for joining us under such extreme circumstances. and i was, i want to thank, i shall bassetti and it's on a tinker. and i want to thank you as well for watching. you can see the program again any time by this thing. i'll website out is there a dot com and for further discussion, go to a facebook page at facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. and you can also join the conversation on twitter. handle is at a jayden's, i'd story for me around con the entire team here. bye for now. ah ah.

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