will cover all has to do with that storm system in china. so let's look what happens on thursday. this does begin to creep closer into beijing, system showers and down ports to be expected. they're on thursday with a high of 22 degrees season, awe inspiring stories from around the world. ah. ready human life capture. fost one. ah groundbreaking. with what is going on in new york city? on a just either. aah! chad house. hundreds of thousands of refugees from sit on a more have been pouring in. this is the latest fighting began last month. but

beyond that, what is the war in sudan? mean to chat and how much of a threat is it to its security? this isn't social ah hello, welcome to the program. i'm m, ron kon. that fighting incidence between its army and the power military rapid support forces as largely continued despite a ceasefire. so far, the crisis is forced at more than $20000.00 people to flee to neighboring chad. but the impact of the crisis goes beyond the immediate displacement of students. people, analysts worn at the unrest could pose a serious threat to the stability of neighboring countries and the region as a whole. we'll get to, i guess, in a moment. but 1st, this report from the had a lady now to don's neighbors are watching with great concern as to how the

conflict is unfolding for regional powers. it's more about minimizing the impact of the crisis. do you and one's more than 800000 people may flee as sedans, army and paramilitary, rapid support forces battle each other. despite of faltering cease fire, at least a $100000.00 sudanese are expected to seek refuge in child alone. which already horsed, more than half a 1000000 refugees from sudan. without a quick resolution of this crisis, we will continue to see more people forced to flee in search of safety and basic assistance. and we are then go picking a coordinated contingency planning for new arrivals, or refugee's, returning refugees and others, including 3rd country nationals to all countries or in the region. saddam border, the staggering 7 countries, including libya, egypt and chad, a region that seen its share of conflict in recent years. and analysts warned the

conflict may attract more weapons and fighters. sedans, western their full region is closely linked with neighboring chart. any instability there can quickly spread across the border from charge. that means fighters friendly to the head of the arrows. f mohammed hummed, and the gallow known as ha metty might come to his aid. child is a you, as ally, and some said has concerns about the presence of russia's wagner mercenary group in neighboring central african republic. and the potential to back tad in rebels threatening its government. the wagner group has been accused of having close ties with the rapid support forces, but the mercenary group denies any involvement in the country. a prolonged fight in sudan could have wider ramifications for the sa hell where foreign powers, like china and france have had a presence for years. said and stability is important,

given it strategic location and has drawn the attention of major powers from both the east and west. but the continued unrest poses a significant threat and could lead to further uncertainty for the region. he had ella beady, fully inside story. ah, that's bringing a guest now in angelina, remarked g. i. nancy, a senior researcher covering chad and africa's great lakes region for the institute of security studies in manama, abilene shape, a sudanese lawyer, analyst, and member of the arab association of constitutional law and addis ababa solomon death, a founding director of amani africa, a pan african thinktank that focuses on peace and security policy in africa. a warm welcome to you'll. i'd like to begin with remote g romaji. there are 20000 refugees . ange had already from neighboring su, dawn,

that numbers rising every single day. is this threatening the stability of chat? teen q r i t data law. firstly, it's not about are those the figures switching to stability? i'll study new york. but what doors are huge, number of refugees bringing and the sedition is on funding. so my deed at this number may arise again, what it's bringing is more to stress on the national or humanitarian system, but also need the national you money to. we are now edwin conversation, many do you when that die is taking care of that. if you see in the country, because every plea or to the conflict in sudan are the system was already under stress because i do want to program, but is here one of the main humanitarian organizations. probably click on and he kicked it on the fact that they were in. so shortage of means, meaning our findings to take care of that efficient that were already in the country. so our d soft,

a huge number from saddam in the last weeks might them be adding stress on a system that is already deep ah, facing a lot of challenges. let's bring in now. holly, shy who's joining us from montana. where is the sudanese government here? where is a rough is pull forces when it comes to their relations with chad. to do that i have good relations with chat. i think i think it helps the relationship with, with, with chart industry strike with the, with the government. but also you need to look at it from another perspective which is basically there are some of the, some of the person on fighting the earth. if they're coming from child, there is tribal tribes in both borders. there's family relationships and interracial unmarried relationships between, between the 2. so the, the border has been the case that people seeing the 4 area that you start folks for

20 years, not since the since the war. and therefore this has witnessed some sort of stability when the lease agreement has been signed. but again, i mean people know they're thinking that you know, they need to flee to, to chat mandate, also our stuff for center and their full and for area where the 5 between the, between ours at house, you know, troops there and the sudanese army as well. so it's historical ship but again by they have but you know, with your guest that, you know, the number will be creasing and people have, you know, seeking different ways to shoot them in general with our, with our child to, to south sudan through egypt to, through if you can, let's bring in solomon to us here solomon. there's about 7 countries that neva, i sued on all of those are facing a refugee crisis. so as people try and get out,

is there a way that these countries can come together and try and sort this out as a unified block or other to many divisions within the mall. and what does, and in particular, what's child role here in situations saddam is very dire. and if you know many people fear the conflict continues and becomes protracted, there is a danger to done. would be fragmented and fragmented. so saddam, that is in conflict. i would also inevitably speak over the insecurity into neighboring countries. it's important to recall that the relationship between saddam and chart historically as with is one where for example, a robin approach well, printing from char tower been successful in launching that come paid again. this

to me in previous years and some of them came product to even have to in previous years, is that all, you know the course well between now and enjoy that i actually inevitably to come the base of the rebel groups in china. that's turn the page in terms of to dance, squeezing the groups ah, and we have to also record what the 5, g, g, and the existence, all the groups operating in the north of china as well. and they may be able to take advantage of the situation for their own purposes. so all never

really and recommendations for don wouldn't be very disasters. and indeed, if the stability and whatever remaining 5 in the news to continue both in the region in the central africa just in the public origin, is going to continue imperative that these countries come together. you know, living differences and you know, the situation so that they would up, there was the car. let me bring in, hey bill, how do you got the leak? i'm guessing that is have a said he's worried about a fragmented, sued on to think that's a realistic feel so far. if you look at what happened in leave, you know, what happened to syria, what happened during the countries that you know, had in a way the illusion started peacefully. so we had a resolution. as soon i know without a pricing issue, that is subject for 2018, its continue to put 2019. it resulted in an agreement which is basically up to can

share a political agreement that divided arbiten civilians, ambia and the military. so we had some sort of stability for 2 vs before the 2. and now 2 of our 2021. but again, the b, b, b. what is wanting right now is basically you have an equal force with the susan, these arm forces, which is, you know, they support forces which is completely outside the supervision and oversight of the mysteries on forces. but people the have, you know, different issues about who started this in the, on the 15th of october, but by the end of the city, if this, the people, they still think that this can be contained, we will just something that, you know, the, the, the transition has to continue people, so thing that, you know, you know, it's not going to bring any piece of stability for them. but again, the position that has been taken by this is, and he's on process and that, you know, there's no negotiations right now with the, with the, with the, would be with the, with our, at least not with, with,

with me deal with this is deputy, his brother, so the serious there that you know, fragment that sudan would make it worse for everyone in the region for the africa, for the neighboring countries with egypt, or if you are chad. but no one has an interest for this to happen, not the of the big from community launches who invested too much on having a political agreement or collecting from agreement to see to see the light. it's fillable. so when it, the for now who is fighting is basically the our, the addition to these forces. if we find people and civilians have to different them. so then the risk is very high that we can go to civil war at the knowledge. it's more we can see there's a control of 5 things controlling the weapons and then the risk is there. there's no political sufficient for, for these,

these 2 to leave her to him for these talks to go to their back. i think the risk is high and i'm expected to be in a position where we're so done. that is, is, is another another leave you another, another serious for us to come. and no one has any just to see that. let me bring in solomon death here, and i have a solomon. chad is a u. s. allied, the u. s. has a number of ally surrounding sue darnell. those relationship with sued on itself has been strained. shall we say over over many years? do you think chad has a role a diplomatic political role to play in the resolution of the complex? i think a beauty or dilution of vis prices are every neighboring country. i would say also die hard to think, but also have a role to play for the resolution of this company by using

any influence that they may have on both sides of the conflict. the conflict party, the student armed forces, and that are the support forces. but i think it's also important to remember that chinese also is going through a transition and not dissimilar to that of so dire it is similar to saddam, in the sense that in china, we have also a military and government that is leading a transition post or go, it has not been sanctioned in the way that it was sanctioned by the african union, but the conditions are similar. and then i went to station in china. so they're either living to what china china can do. but all the same within those

limits. i think it's important to bring in because if you don't bring in or the neighboring countries they receive that, then exclusion would leave a back you, that me easily be ex, exploited, you know, to undermine the diplomatic effort to bring peace. and i see the fighting in have to, well, let me bring in, let me bring in, remind you now from angela from actually is there a limited role that child can play because of this transition that i guess not is out of the was talking about i think that and so we the, the connection, but i, i think as make, we'll just say jed can play alone and let us the called the fact that just before d ha, dis, actually fighting in 9, sudan, ah, child received our same sex hardly to visit our 1st from edward on himself and the

day after from our amity, meaning in a way that for the belligerent actually fighting in sudan at chad could play a role in what's happening in the country. and i totally agree with the fact that i, chad at the moment is also managing air transition. i with a lot of internal, i don't the stations and it position but ease somehow for jail, but also facing a lot of classic rigid burns inside. but i definitely, i think a solution to a conflict like the one in so don't actually as absolutely to are be at originally said so in that are in that way. chad, our sound on i think i'm going to move up on to countries or back to the surrounding student needs to be implicated in finding solutions. so that's your loud crisis. i believe. i mean, here we are another situation where you have a country that is almost on the brink of civil war. so don, is fighting with each other, you of the parameters. he forces the rapids full forces. you of the government. ah,

no one's talking about peace, right? now, but all of the regional countries including chat, are wondering what that means for them. but they're there to pile plays in sudan, our toy thing to the world. this is an internal conflict right now. they're not interested in talking. so what does the international community do? what does a country like chad do with $20000.00 refugees arriving at his border more coming every day. what's the short term that countries like chad can do? it's a mom, let beach i'm in here. i think it's a bit, it's a bit ah, ah, under allister to suggest that when singing even if it might be like my colleague has said, it's a, it should be a very limited one and then the scope of, that's all the boundaries that we can move on the margin is, is very slim for chapter. you already have, you know, the quote you had, you know, saudi americans. you have the m r and then you have the u. k. as part of a,

if you can use them. and then he has a trailer from mechanism which is basically he got african union ambia unanimous. so you, you had mechanics in place in, in her to me that way when other, the fell to contain that, that conflict so far. but again, there's initiatives, you know, between the saudis and the americans to suggest the cease fire and for that to use fire to be permanent. what they are doing right now is that they're extending the truth for allowing, you know, i'm guaranteed secure foods for, for, for allowing you to be trained. ready to come to her too, but again, i think it's a, it's not like a one country that can do anything. it has to be communicated, connected, community itself to move. have you the, the, the resources that we have right now and in the country basically, you know, the mechanics that we have in place and try, which is just to get some changes. the other thing is, is,

is what you mention about the channel. there's no intention in turn the intention between and be between the hours on the for the process to get into negotiations. i don't think this is entirely correct. we can see that the rest of the are beginning official international community to find the way for them to negotiate because they don't wanna lose what they have achieved so far over the past 4 years. on the fast, we are taking a very stubborn position. they're thinking very, they're reluctant to my job doc docs with the, with the i thinking, you know, the, the, the current direct now is basically to resolve this issue. that's really, i'm that you know for the r f to have to move outside offer to me with their tubes and the areas that they are controlling. so i, but there is a way to has all this, but i think it would take the trip tech. it would tech high the ship in the form of whatever i gave that was the check this not everyone is focusing on a fire that you know they, they can make it for a minute that it can make sheaf. so foods for, for,

for him to turn into floor to the, to, to me. so i think this is the focus math. i don't know what is not seems to be between the 2 parties interested in our talks political process, at least for the, for the, for the us are in this process. political parties, the, are made it clear from the beginning that see the, the, the medically back in there against the war and the, i'm, the solution has to be political solution to continue the solomon. once again, we are facing a situation where the international community is getting involved like a gift. and my mom was talking about the various different mechanisms for talks are coming on. but until it's an african solution for african problems, we're going to see this again, isn't this an opportunity for the nations surrounding su dawn to come together and talk to sit on and be bring an internal solution. let's not rely on the u. s anymore. let's don't rely on the u. k. any more? surely. this is the opportunity when i think it,

it's one thing to have that kind of ambition or being able to, you know, exercise responsibility and leadership and being the 2 sides to the, you know, to the piece that were indeed that is what the african union gonna have been trying to do if you recall just a day after the outbreak of this fighting on the 16th of every the peace and security concert of the communion convened an emergency station on the same day, the inter governmental authority on development got the region and body also convened a state extraordinary meeting exactly to take leadership, but also to process on the 2 sites into some meeting to a cessation of hostilities. i think there is so much that they can do in terms of the labor that they have to bear on the 2 sides. so

it is important therefore, for these countries, since they can buy themselves or whatever they have is not enough to induce the parties into coming to a cessation of hostilities. what the question therefore to in least the support and leverage all others? you know, we did that again, but also beyond that, that's why the role of countries such as those in the gulf of the way becomes so important. and it's important to record that during the transition process, why the telephone and the card is important that you, when the african union and e get was at the front of it. the 4 countries making up the ones that were exercising leverage. now in pushing some of the a you know, the p,

i remember the framework agreement that was done in december for example. but i think there were also lessons that need to be learned, that there is so much focus on trying to gain the 2 sites. only a potentially being the wider student is public who are opposed to the bloody walk and who have been a champion of a team, but also piece and the voice of the wider suitors public needs to be harnessed. and there is, there should be a way in planning post between these 2 sites to ensure that the student is a public if also adequately and effectively presented, including the members of the response committee who are displayed in an incredible level, all humanitarian activity. a very interesting point. a very interesting point. solomon. let's bring in abilene high. hey, i know you're, you're

a lawyer. i remember a few years ago, the sudanese lawyers association in caught him was a very powerful organization with a civil society voice. they're kind of civil side, the voice of solomon dis, i was talking about has that voice now disappeared? where is the sunni civil society here when it comes to this conflict? so and this is, this is for frontier. be the newsletters association. when they came up with the, with the, with the initiative to come up with the constitution, so to speak, the came up with my situation or as part of the drafting committee or within the experts have been part of part of the some of the stages. but again, they wanted, they wanted the constitution to as a process and actually come and have a process that constitution because they should never be in the, you know, without, with a have a constitution. but we have the constitution in place. no one respected that constitution not even doing that transition. not even after the cool. so i think. ready the people they thought, you know, if you having a constitution because teaching could be a political process. so do use the constitution by this is my lawyer cessation. and

then they pushed that to political process. this started, you know, moral shops, different workshops, and you know, areas lead to peace and, and security. but again, when they came to the piece on security, when they came to the issues listening to reintegration of the, our staff within the army. he was the complex, you know, the, the, the unfortunate thing that we are from the beginning that we don't need to go to be as soon as possible. we needed to move in 2 years. and then the us, if they wanted that to be within 10 years. so i think i think of the political part is now watching that they're trying to help. but i don't think this is beyond the should be sufficient to contribute. i think civil society now, what they are trying to do is basically make sure people are see if people are cared for people are able to go to hospitals and get treatment, which is not the case right now. most of i think 90 percent of sorry, i don't think we all running out of ring out as we all running out of time. and i

do want to bring in remote g here romaji. we've talked a lot about the refugee crisis about the political diplomatic role chad can play, but in the very, very short term, the longer this will goes on, there is a danger r s f forces could fall back to the border with chad. and that could create a real instability and a real problem for some members of the chatty and government. but certainly within that region, is this a short term concern for you? for sure, there's this kind of concerned because actually what the valve did, the issue of that conflict, actually the s f losing ground and capital in getting back to duffle might be, might be something that would change it a pool cycle room in depth soul. but also the edison winning rat sightings actually might also have an impact. so in the short term, whatever the issue of that conflict, there might be a lot of im, factor on doubtful. and then on chat, because there was

a very big component or ethnic character of the forces that actually are fighting within data ads and mainly arab tribes gather under emma des coleman. and we also know that in the past, i club room between the different groups and doubtful meaning that as a guide does a co op to my sally than the at us of always been very fragile. so any change in the position of the artist actually might have an impact in that for and meaning also in job as a spill of i want to thank all our guests. romaji and i faith abdullah helene, shave and solomon death her. and i want to thank you as well for watching. now you can see the program any time of i visiting our website out there, a dot com and for further discussion, or go to our facebook page at facebook dot com, forward slash asia inside story. and you can also join the conversation on twitter . our handle is at ha, inside story from me, i'm ron kon, and the entire team. here i for now.

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