for kenya, it's been about 2 months, a pretty steady rain, so that's helping to erase the devastating drought that we've seen there. as we dipped toward the south. we've got these storms for it along the border with south africa mos in beacon as far teeny. we are running the risk of seeing some funding there on wednesday. see you soon. a, the 2 of us didn't even customs with their families smuggling undocumented workers for us to make excessive coupons, westberg to witness their incredible stories from over 9 years. desert smugglers with this document on the jersey to the position be able to and that's it by a, by the ones we have on how to present is basically

a serious challenge. and next week selection performed vitals for 2 decades with the united all position. despite spring change, this is in place or the hello welcome to the program on the wrong. com. it's an important election that could change more than just the head of states to is president richard thought of the one is hoping to extend his time off to more than 20 years in power. the recent opinion polls suggest is not the are right favorites, high inflation and a perceived slow response to devastating of quirks of hate, his popularity and some voters and now tending to a new candidate. so what does that mean for tech is politics and the economy will explore these questions without guess. but 1st, this report by katia lopez for them. despite the massive support release

length of this one, with nearly 2000000 people took as president reject type or the one the spacing, his toughest political battle. yet he's seeking a 3rd term. the opinion polls suggest he's not the clear favorite. the president is now hoping rallies like these will change that we listen, thought your position is already looking for excuses for that perspective. defeating the elections that trying to provoke this when that didn't work, they turn to insults on this. this is main contender, 74 year olds come all cute each w piece best buy a 6th party on position elias is pledge to reverse many of the ones policies, including a return to a problem and 3 democracy, limiting public spending and a major shift and foreign relations the we are not going to leave the fate of

the turkish republic in the hands of one person. no one will accept the words of just one person. 3rd one is a conservative politician with the large support base. he's been widely credited with establishing true to you as a regional military power and leading years of economic growth. the reason why just bought the keeps winning is that because they deliver to all types of southern material benefits. and this is the 1st time that the, that magic seems not to be working because of the economy. in recent years, voters across the country have become more and more frustrated. the cost of living is rising in october and pollution swords to 86 percent. the highest since 2016. although data for april showed a recovery, 44 percent is still high and many goods are too expensive. they've been holding it

really like a new to my son lives abroad and i cannot go visit them anymore. the exchange rate, so sky rocketed and we can't afford anything. we've had sold the rights would not go up anymore. but look at the levels. it's reach no sooner than that, that's a screw. whoever wins on may 14th, we'll have to manage a struggling economy. and a politically dividers nation, katia a little bit. so the young for insight story the let's bring it all guess from is stumble on and i'm present a drug, a man strategies, a defense thing time. and all of a book on thursday is election system from pittsburgh, north carolina, w road pass. and a tech is a foreign policy specialist and full a us and by so that in on correct, and also from stumbles and organ chapman of the center for economic and foreign policy studies. and a full attack is diplomats a warm welcome to your like to begin in is stumble with cnn sonata. i've been

speaking to various turkish political observers, john list and the like politicians as well. an awesome a very simple question. who's going to win this election? and everybody has said to me that it's too close to cold, but that's not your opinion. is it? what do you think? i to i think that's the position where when they have a slice margin which they, i, they are likely to maintain. the reason why i think that is 1st of all, based on a pulling data. but secondly, i also at the dynamic of the campaign on the campaign side track, your position has done a relatively good job because they've been able to campaign with several different leaders at the same time. whereas the campaign on the sides of the government, this is dawn and dawn himself carries a very heavy load. but on the other side you have. busy the challenger crews,

chevrolet himself, you have the auction or the chair woman of the party. you have the 2 popular mayors . they come all of them a robust stumbling match. so yeah, watch the mail bunker well doing the campaigning at several different corners of the country. so as a result, i think that the opposition will have, you know, we'll, we'll go to the finish line with the slide march also and stumble. i want to bring in the, on the owner. or do you agree with the guest and assemble the this is the all positions fight to win, as well, to be honest with you in any a 2 man race. and this is what turns out to be pretty much not to be disrespectful to the other 2 candidates, but every, every buddy and even the them themselves, costs through them to be kind of not be a very big content there. so this race is actually between a circle or so then present that dog. so it is very likely that there won't be

a lend slides victory known by the fluids and whether it's it, whether it's others, especially for the 1st round my assessment. and i know you don't have time to discuss all this, but, and my experience is that the present or the will act indeed when in the 1st round with a comparatively comfortable you know, march and i don't close to confident in the 1st time i've michael instructional uncomfortable leads is somewhere between 2 points set up. now as opposed to uh, to the dynamics of the campaigns. i think that the, you know, the, the opposition has kind of what they try to present as, as, as a group of differences of opinions or matter of, you know, a or different background people coming together is now being perceived as a different people trying to compete for the same seats,

and they have the most traits, and i think a very bad move on their, on their parts. they have the street in the last month and a half during the campaign that there are definitely lot of issues that they can at the great and people are because of the voters are puzzled as to what did these guys when, if they said of the presidential table because there's 8 of them total. how are they gonna agree? i mean parts of things even more. so how are they going to agree urges matters. which is, i think it big, big question about in the heads of old warders into k, and whether they're supporting the opposition or supporting guys a and busta pearson. this has been a 20 year roll full present or the one he's certainly been in the job long enough for to have seen a lot of things to think he's losing his touch. he's been very criticized papers handling the quake and the economy doing its time for another liter. you know, i think there's an interesting comparison with 20 years ago when this government

one decisively against the then existing government because of a lack of trust. after the aftermath of a major earthquake and a he cannot make crisis. so in some strange way the world seemed to have turned back too much the same scenario. and much the same concern about whether to have faith in this government. given the problems it has now made visible with the economy with recovery of the country and with trust from the public. and the one that existed 20 years ago. i do think that it's unlikely that one of these count as well when a majority in around this weekend. and i do think that in some sense the real campaign will begin on monday morning or sunday evening. and last for the next 2 weeks. and i think it's going to be drawn out there and we may not know

good results. and we may not know good government. that is to say effective government for awhile. so none of one of the things that we seen in the selection that's been very interesting to me. i was speaking to a media analyst who suggested a that's come out. cruise deal hasn't really had that much publicity on state or in television. most of it being very sympathetic to our the one, but we've seen other leaders within the coalition auction there. for example, you mentioned earlier get a little bit of publish, see the idea being that could split the opposition vote. did you think that's something that is a of a, a play at play here? no, because there is no risk of splitting the position both to position as one single can. so uh, so uh, however they are running uh, you know,

for the pull them into race. uh, although they are in the lines, every party will have its own sets of representatives in parliament. so there are separate campaigns for part of that is also the case for the really alliance, where you have a akbar, 10 m a t that will end up having different parliamentary groups. so they also have a separate empty box. the initial question is that you raised is essentially the reason why the elections and for a key, although they are free, they are not fair. because uh, the government party is relying heavily on state resources, but also on the weight of the state leg press including a t r t which gives much the good coverage to the content and actions of the ruling party. and that's certainly an even balanced activities to redress if

it's, if it's going to improve its democrats of sense. although one of the things that present or the one has done is give a government work as a full, she's like this and pay rise in the days running out to the election. he's probably hoping that that's going to be enough to swing the vote for him. but 5000000 young people are now eligible to vote and they by no means have picked aside. do you think that's going to be the defining fact to of this election is going to be the youth fight? well, before i see that i shouldn't be on the line that time i am against the, the, you know, the people using the terminology of fidget that the generations, the and how they are, you know, thing thing or acting like, differently from, from the general public. and it's just a regular tech issue. it is, i think they are going to be divided just as they were a decade or 2 ago. you know, some of them are going to be liberal, some are going to be conservative. someone's going to be more nations to so i don't

foresee that the, and i, i actually believe in this much a support ticket. but for the rest of the world that the, the new generations are not any different than our, you know, our generation, when we were young. i think the, the big misunderstanding is that they're not more loud. they are now able to freely communicate and very cheap be possible, and they are not more, you know, the level that they were before. but when it comes to warming practices by the use, i don't think it's going to be in a different them before. now. i'm talking about, as i'm given uh you know, it res, yesterday i think it was in, in new res is not something um plan, as dorm has been the increasing the phase then starting with minimum wage uh, gone through with the state workers and had the state employees and also with the, with the retired people that he's been raising them. he's an original one. these pays for the last,

almost 2 years. that is his way. that as he explained to fight the, the buying power of the people for the last 2 years. so to say that this was a, uh, particular motivated res. uh, just uh, you know, couple of days before the elections lot must know nothing about search economy. and one must know nothing about how as far as on this friday has been fighting the inflation for the last 2 years. so i don't foresee it as it as it is. and it's, or it's, it's just the way the ad on has been fighting in place to, for the last 2 years. and best of this, i will come to you in just a 2nd. but i want to put that point uh to send and organ. he's also in assembles and um, this is a very high pub, local election is almost the domestic politics, domestic inflation, domestic economy is where this back to the ground is a guest in turkey. and it's tumble as said actually, this wasn't a bribe. this has always planned but coming days before the election and must be

all concerned right. well obviously it's a concern and i don't agree i told with the assessment that was just me. you don't fight the installation by raising why should this is called the uncomfortable the see, you can help people to improve their purchasing power. but ultimately what you need to do is to fight inflation itself. and that's not something that, this the contradiction. please excuse me. i didn't the advise isn't i don't i the you that is the sure be yours. you in the legislative i would just didn't finish his is his, his thoughts are not going to do. thank you. so the inflation in turkey is totally self injury. and uh, and is the results off of major macro close to mistakes the thinking going that you need to lower the interest rate, you know, the to 5 inflation. that's quite

a unique and novel approach and it doesn't work. it was never going to work. so, and as a result, this has become the main huge and so the nature of the government, the government, that's successful, the state of the economy for a number of years, but not as a result of this, this is the, the, the, this has, this is having political consequences, and this is the reason why on like previous use, this is going to be a very difficult, a struggle for presidents idle politically speaking. well, let's bring in the international a section into this right now, and i want to start with um, i'm best to pay as an investor person. can all courage, although, and doesn't have an international presence. no one really votes in an election, whether it's a us, the u. k. techie on foreign policy is always about domestic politics. but the international community is clearly watching. this does the us have a preferred candidate? who do you think uh, does the us have a preferred candidate?

i would say that the us view consistently is the turkey should be an act like fully a democratic country. so the united states is worried when it sees opposition. politicians jail for years is worried when it says journalist arrested. it worries when a government controls all of the media. and so those are the things without regard to a particular person or party that the united states is concerned about. and turkey has had a long history of striving for democracy. none of us are perfect, but that's a major concern. and then i think the 2nd major concern is the political orientation, the long term of turkey. is it a member of nato, really? or is it a non align state that uses nato when it's convenient and ignores it?

when it's not, those are the kinds of questions are probably are concerning. americans auto and one of the things that president are the one that has done is put to keep them the back on the international map. it's become a play at one small. do you think the, uh, the opposition can carry that own or do you think it's only or the one that can really make that look on the international scene. let's go back to the words of uh, mr. co shuttle himself. he has set or run over that cable changed the turkish foreign policy, the by 180 degrees, his chief adviser and a member of his uh, you know, party administration. former investor has uh, has had many uh, you know, statements where he was, he actually said we could take the questions,

turkeys presence and turkeys help to as their big job. they have the definitely question, well more than questions actually they, they claim that therapy should be out of syria. practice should be on up to media and things like that. so just by their own words, we do understand whether you agree or not, with the turkish foreign policy in the last several years. and the way add on is, is driving to key in the international scene. we do know that one in this commercial was that like that, i don't know if these little bit reversed. how do we know this? because this isn't exactly verbatim statement made by mister costello himself and his top the policy adviser and former invest your folks in public of to give us it. and that's one of the things that people are using to criticize the uh, the off position with that there is no foreign policy experience. that is a very dangerous route, but potentially the opposition if they come to power could take reversing key foreign policy, victories,

foreign policy policies. for some of uncle do you think that's a genuine fear? no, it's not a because chart. people who role has deep foreign policy experience and when you look at the pull the subtract form and the governance structure of the position on foreign policy stay clear, they want to re institutionalize for impose make, which means that yes, obviously the executive president has powers under this constitution, but these will be used in a manner where the institutional intelligence will also be a partial decision making. so if they are going to be major decisions that will drive the future foreign policy, this will be taking it in an environment where you have that sort of institutional experience which exist today in turkey. that will come into play. no single decision will take a major decisions that can shift the course of turkish foreign policy. that was one

of the main strategic mistakes of aust years. and here, the cases in syria, how turkish foreign policy almost overnights changed the by side lining uh the, the major achievements of republican erupt, turkey, which was wanting to feelings in the domestic affairs of neighboring country. that principal was jefferson's almost overnight. and the reason why it was just assumed he was this slack off inclusive governance, which is what the or the government which is what the, what position side is promising. so yes, ultimately they may decide withdrawal from celia. they may decide to withdraw was from the yeah, but that's going to come after the concert, to practice the whole of dialogue and therefore the ultimate decision will be a nice to, to show decision and the personal mom. and that's the thing is good for the country

because it will make tricky, much more predictable ally, unless the past and what do you land on all of this, do you think that the opposition is weak on foreign policy and might not be able to take the steps of this and, and just said, or do you think that actually this will be a good time for a reset if they do with as well. i think their purposes to reset the foreign policy and i will say, given my own experience in turkey 20 years ago, turkey had a core, a very excellent, very expert and various persuasive diplomats. at that time, the, from my respected enormously, that asset is still in turkey. then i think that turkey won't be a radek about its approach to foreign policy, but on the other hand, i do think that turkey will make its own choices for i mean, to, to be honest with you, it's hard for me to say what the target has gained from 10 years in syria. uh and

uh its uh and, and that's a question. i'm sure the truth is, keep or mulling. ready over and deciding what to do about and as i mentioned, i've concerned and a lot of others are. what is turkeys reorientation as a country where the rather be the head of a non align coalition regional grouping. or what it really liked to be part of the nato process of building relationships, the west, the united states, and the you are the biggest markets that turkey has and probably will have chinese products or under selling turkish products on the turkish market today. so those are the kinds of things that i think of mature approach to a, uh, a, an issue like the orientation is important. and also on the economic side, i'll close with this. turkey today is ranked is 19th and the world. when i was there, 20 years ago, there was 16th in the world,

so the promises are putting turkey into the top 10, never eventual lives. so i'm sure the turkish people would like to say turkey get back to that point where they're feeling good about their place in the world and, and building wells for their country and their citizens, to the owner and assemble. it must be, it's been twins. he is, or the one is had his jones a must be time for change. surely? sure. is that a question? that is the question now and that are your thoughts? well, um, i mean if you go back to the basics, there's 2 things. why change something that's going good? and even if so, if it's going good and that's, you know, you just change for the sake of changing. then you need something when you're changing, you need something better. and there's just not a choice. so then do, would you agree with that? no, i totally disagree,

but it's up to the church electra to the side, not to the church. electra will this time around the monday to the position. now one of the things that on the, on our side to the wanted to get back to you about was this idea that the youth vote doesn't count. but for the opposition, they all really going out and trying to count and quotes that use like 5000000 of them might make a difference. will they succeed? yes and there as well. i think we have a different viewpoint. do you just do you for is different. the reason why it's different is that when you look at the polls and the, the questions in those polls, their level of support for a set of different political actors, is different than the average support in the rest of the population. so that's what you get from the polls. secondly, the way that they get, they political, the information is also there. the entire, to the median ages 30 to 33. so it's still a young population. but what,

when the population, when you take the older generation, there's, there's, you know, wait, stuck to their traditional ways of trying to consume, pull that information from television, from, you know, a printed media used. it's not like that. that's the case for the rest of the world to they get the information from digital, from social media, from the end, it's on the fax from, sorry, oh no, no, sorry, of this. and then we all, i see plenty of time to do when i come a bill for one final question to on at him. all know, is there anything you've had in the last off an hour that might be able to change your mind on whether or the one will win this election or not? no, i didn't need to hear anything in the last half hour. so that's that to, to what for an add on that, that, that, that my mind has been made before. and if there was a 0.001 percent chance that was left for me to walk for somebody

else was finished. when color started, it was announced, as the opposition running mate, who was ne, go shows, name has been repeatedly repeatedly, been spelled as the candidate or cannot twins by the very members of their quality. should the 5 members of that or the rest of the 5 members of that quote should include a lot of the, the top guys within c h, b as well. so if there was any, any slim chance left for me to want to consider to work for somebody else, one color shovel was that house, that was it. and i wanna thank oh guess. uh oh no, adam uh, w robot pearson and cnn, oregon. and i want to thank you as well for watching. now you can see the program again any time by visiting our website out of their adult. com for further discussion. go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash sa,

inside story. and you can also join the conversation on twitter handle these at asia inside story for me and bronchitis and the whole team here. bye for now the, the the, [000:00:00;00]

the either the,

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